Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Firstly, I echo Heron: wot in conversation happened to PM safety? (But from past games, I'm one to talk...)

Secondly, although GMs have a lot of freedom when it comes to roles, some things basically have to be done. An elim team without vote manip I could see, but since we had a vigilante were I the GM I definitely would have given the elims a way to defend themselves.

Thirdly, Weasel. If we don't lynch them our lynch yesterday was completely wasted, but if we do lynch them then it'll only be somewhat wasted. Weasel has a lot of evidence this game against them, so I'm willing to use this cycle's lynch to finish them off.

Fourthly, that said, we don't want to lose this day to a massive bandwagon-killing discussion.

Fifthly, I got a funky feeling when I read over Mouse's last post. I don't know what caused it, but at minimum it's worth a second look when I have time.

[Azure Mouse]

Aww... Sorry Rhino - I didn't see your PM until after the cycle ended... Not having email notifications is a pain...

(There wasn't anything in it, if anyone cares - they opened it about 40 minutes before cycle ended, just after responding to my post - they just wanted to say hi)

I'll try get my suspicion list done - I'll work on that for a bit after this.

 

[Ivory Dragonfly]

@Mint Heron Fair point. However, judging by the number of regular villagers that have been dying, the proportion suggests something in the range of 14-17 people with roles. So, about two roles per character type would be typical. 

In terms of PM safety, I offered my own role before asking others for theirs, and made the sharing completely optional. That they chose to do so reflects trust on their part, and not deception on mine. 

Worldhoppers are powerful, but I don’t know if they’re so powerful that there can only be one of them. That said, based on the Gorilla kill, at least 1 Worldhopper is probably Elim. However, it wouldn’t be Weasel, since the one last cycle drew Edgedancer, so I think Weasel is just a regular Elsecaller.

Finally, people need to contribute more. The more we talk, the better our chances of hitting an Elim. I’ll be back around 6, as per usual.

[Sunburst Toucan]

Vanna was standing atop a cliff, looking at the pillars of smoke down below. They seemed to have gotten closer. It had been several days since last she'd come here, but she'd needed a bit of time alone. Very few villagers came here, so she had plenty of time to gather her wits and work out her frustrations. The pillars of smoke rising around the village reminded Vanna of the bars of a prison, and she felt a shiver coursing over her spine. She hated this feeling of being trapped, of having her freedom taken away from her.

For a moment, she felt certain. she'd grab the bag she'd been preparing and leave the village behind. She'd go and look for survivors elsewhere, away from the suspicions and murders. Her resolve didn't last for more than three steps away from the cliff, and instead of heading home she move towards the village square for today's discussion and hanging.

***

She could hear several voices raised in accusation of weasel as she walked onto the square. That was to be expected, after the failed lynch against him yesterday. Vanna didn't suspect him overly much, but he hadn't done anything to inspire confidence either, so it surprised her when @Fuchsia Ostrich claimed that there was a lot of evidence against weasel. "Ostrich, could you do me a favor and explain this evidence to me? I probably haven't been paying enough attention to weasel, so if you could explain what makes him suspicious, I'd appreciate it." Vanna made sure that the question didn't sound like an accusation. she knew well enough that she wasn't as informed as she'd have liked to be.

"And there's something else I'd like to discuss regarding the murders. Has anyone else noticed that they seem to be targeting those among us that are relatively quiet? The only person that really broke that pattern was Gecko as far as I know, but everyone else fits." Vanna tried to remember who'd first suggested that the murderers where laying low, but couldn't remember. " Someone suggested earlier on that the murderers where probably laying low, but with every murder they committed there are less villagers that match that description. I might be wrong, but I don't think it would make sense to reduce the numbers of the group you're trying to hide in. If I was in such a position, i'd be focusing on the loudest villagers, trying to stifle discussion and removing the most perceptive people first. It worries me that the murderers don't think this is necessary."

"Of course, it might be that they are trying to get us to make the conclusion I've come to. After all, there would probably still be enough people for them to hide among right now, and it could be a way to cast suspicion on those that should be trusted the most. It could also be that they pick their targets to decrease the risk of attacking someone that was being guarded, but that's assuming there even is someone watching out for us, and I've seen no proof of that as of yet." Vanna realized she'd started rambling agian, adn quickly cut her speech short.

"I'm not sure if this means anything, but I'd like to hear other opinions than just my own on it. As for me, I think several murderers are hiding amongst those most in the spotlight. I'm not sure who they are, and I'm not accusing anyone until I've got some actual proof, but I think it's something that needs to be evaluated."

 

1 hour ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Worldhoppers are powerful, but I don’t know if they’re so powerful that there can only be one of them. That said, based on the Gorilla kill, at least 1 Worldhopper is probably Elim. However, it wouldn’t be Weasel, since the one last cycle drew Edgedancer, so I think Weasel is just a regular Elsecaller.

OC: In the last AG the elim team had three mistborn (link to AG3 elim doc, see page 2 for roles), which is basically equivalent to the worldhopper in this game, so I'm not sure how many conclusions we can make on the amount of worldhoppers and their alignment. Are you certain those claimed to you have the roles they claimed, and are not just worldhoppers that used the opportunity of a certain power to convince you they had that one?

Edited January 29, 2018 by Sunburst Toucan

[Azure Mouse]

Alright, read list update (I'll throw it in a spoiler this time). New ones are Albatross, Crocodile, and Kangaroo, with Flamingo, Elephant, and Toucan pending.

Spoiler

Amethyst Scorpion - (As of D5) posts seemed useful. Probably a slight town lean.

Amber Vulture - (As of D5) still sorta neutral. I may need to revisit after doing others, or consider the broader context of the posts to make a better judgement.

Emerald Falcon - (As of D5) Hmm.. 7 posts. Think that's the fewest so far... 1.0 was not helpful. 2.0 has been here a week, but has come across as being pretty confused the whole time. The only post of note is this cycle's. A bunch of psychobabble (albeit useful psychobabble). The advise to properly consider votes while avoiding confirmation bias is fair. But then all they do is just poke Scorpion, so not adding all that much otherwise. Really hard to give a read one or another.

Fuschia Ostrich - (As of D5) 1.0 is a bit random, and gave no useful info. 2.0. We've only had a couple of days of them, and they've only made around half a dozen posts in that time, with very little content. I appreciate that it's hard to catch up on everything - I'm struggling to get coherent thoughts of everyone and I've been playing the whole game. Tone makes me a little uneasy maybe, but not enough to shift my read of neutral.

Indigo Weasel - (As of D5) There's something about their tone that I don't necessarily like. Hard to pin down though. Really don't like their vote on Meerkat though...  (Day 4) probably slight maf lean.

Ivory Dragonfly - (As of N5) Dislikes D1 lynches. Claims to be new. Quite active, with well thought out analysis. Certainly has a village vibe, and hasn't done anything obviously sus. Could be a very well executed deep cover mafia, but I feel that's unlikely. Probable town read, but I'd want to do a more thorough reread of their posts in context to further check the deep maf idea.

Magenta Albatross - (As of D6) Starts out with a lot of fluff. Improves a bit after D1, though involved in the Swan lynch. Not necessarily a lot stuff this game, but apparently have exams. They have a larger post or two recently, with their suspicions of Toucan. I'll need to give them a proper read over, and also do a read through of Toucan too. I'll put them down as neutral pending a review of the Toucan suspicions and Toucan's own posts, and I'll get to that within the next 12 hours.

Mauve Crocodile - (As of D6) Had a bit of a slow start, but they've had some really good posts - I like this one for example. The main thing a few people have thought was maybe a bit off about them (as far as I can tell) was their Flamingo vote awhile back, but I don't see it, and their reasons I agree with. Looks like they didn't post last cycle, so hopefully they've not gone inactive on us, but I think I'd lean townie on them.

Mint Heron - (As of D5) 'm getting a townie vibe from Heron actually. I haven't paid them much attention, but I see they made a PM safety now, which actually sorta explained why it was a problem, unlike some of the one line comments I got at the start that weren't very helpful. Seems they're maybe suspicious of Penguin, but I'd like to hear more about their suspicions in general I think.

Onyx Flamingo - (As of D6)

Pearl Chameleon - (As of D5) Not necessarily super active, but their posts have all been pretty high quality so far, and have been sharing their opinions. Probably leaning town on them.

Quartz Zebra - (As of D5) Some good content and analysis - reading town on them.

Sage Kangaroo - (As of D6) Starts off strong, a fair amount of nice thoughtful post, with a village vibe. Not afraid to put opinions on players out there. I guess that's not inherently a village trait, but it looks like they've been consistent on their reads, unless they've good reason. Emotion works its way into some of their posts, and their reactions feel village to me, which I think is harder to fake. I guess there's a detail or two about their posts I want to look into more, but pending that, I'd be reading them as town for the moment.

Sapphire Elephant - (As of D6)

Sunburst Toucan - (As of D6)

Violet Axolotl - (As of D5) Is probably voting randomly and pretending there's some logic to it. The vibe I get is that they're probably village, but have decided to use a time efficient strategy that is detrimental to the village.

 

[Onyx Flamingo]

Work is pretty busy right now so i will try to post later tonight but I wont be able to be as active as i have been.

Ok according to my count there is 17 of us left and the most common theory I have heard is that there are 6 elims which would make it 11 to 6. Now weasel hasn't logged in since Friday so I guess I would like to know if he has a pinch hitter, or if somehow he has been considered active enough that he hasn't gotten one. Maybe it is foolish of me, but I just can't imagine an elim going inactive especially in this game where things are going so well for them.

Also is it a possibility to lynch Narg? 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Weasel should have gotten a pinch hitter by my understanding. That doesn’t guarantee anything, since people can go inactive for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with the game itself.

Who is Narg? Not on the player list as a character.

[Mint Heron]

27 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Maybe it is foolish of me, but I just can't imagine an elim going inactive especially in this game where things are going so well for them.

Also is it a possibility to lynch Narg? 

Oh, there have been inactive evil players before. I'd list examples but frankly anything I have is from really old games.

Lynching the GM in this game shouldn't do anything except give the GM a perfect excuse to troll you, and if that happens you'll only have yourself to blame.  

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Following discussions with the IM, we've decided to announce that whilst Indigo Weasel was replaced, their pinch hitter hasn't seen the PM giving them access to the account, and as such, Indigo Weasel is currently without a player.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

So no one really missed out if we lynch Weasel? Then let’s do this and move on.

[Sage Kangaroo]

12 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

So no one really missed out if we lynch Weasel? Then let’s do this and move on.

I originally had a whole post written out about how I thought that was a little unfair, and that we should take another option, but I ended up disagreeing with myself.

So yeah.

Weasel.  Lets get this over with.

Although that last post seemed a little odd, Scorpion.

I'm watching you.

[Onyx Flamingo]

1 hour ago, Mint Heron said:

Oh, there have been inactive evil players before. I'd list examples but frankly anything I have is from really old games.

Lynching the GM in this game shouldn't do anything except give the GM a perfect excuse to troll you, and if that happens you'll only have yourself to blame.  

Ah ok I thought maybe it was some random NPC we could lynch or something but if that is the GM's flavor character then I guess that makes sense. I let the RP get to me to much I guess haha.

If I can't vote for Narg then the only Hesitancy I have is that lynching weasel seems like it is too easy right now and no-one cares if we do it... maybe I'm thinking way to meta but wouldn't an elim try to protect weasel? I mean weasel if he is a villager it wouldn't do us much harm to lynch him since he is inactive but  it wouldn't help us get closer to killing the elims if he is village either and since we have dwindled in numbers drastically I guess I'm starting to get worried that soon they won't even need to hide from us.

[Azure Mouse]

35 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

wouldn't an elim try to protect weasel? I mean weasel if he is a villager it wouldn't do us much harm to lynch him since he is inactive but  it wouldn't help us get closer to killing the elims if he is village either

On the one hand you seem be saying that the maf would likely want to save weasel but you then suggest that we should consider other lynches (i.e. saving weasel)? 

[Onyx Flamingo]

1 hour ago, Azure Mouse said:

On the one hand you seem be saying that the maf would likely want to save weasel but you then suggest that we should consider other lynches (i.e. saving weasel)? 

Haha ... good point I didn't think of how catch 22 that logic is. 

[Magenta Albatross]

This is a rather unexpected development. I was expecting to catch up on a lot of posts but even with the night cycle, there's not a lot. And, of course, I haven't been much help in that department since I've been rather inactive myself. Quick thoughts on the lynch. I didn't pay much attention to weasel last cycle as there were many people focused on weasel and I wanted to focus on others. Most people have probably already thought of all this but just to set it in text.

Hopefully Weasel can come online, otherwise the situation with weasel makes me think of two scenarios:

1. Since there isn't a player behind weasel at the moment, village weasel can't really try to defend themselves or do anything which could give us a village read on them. Hence, the lynch goes through and we end up with a dead villager.

Advantages: we don't have a player remaining in the later cycles who we can't read and therefore will be a wildcard if it comes down to process of elimination between a few players. Village weasel can put us in the position where we can see some pushes on them.

Disadvantages: Another dead villager. We have given the elims an extra night to kill. Discussion has been rather low because the lynch is on weasel to sort this matter. 

2. We have an elim Weasel. Since there's no one controlling Weasel, the elims possibly tried to make a counter-wagon to save him the previous cycle. If weasel still gets lynched, it's an elsecaller so, again, they get an extra night kill basically. Today, they may or may not try to still save weasel. It's unlikely they try to stick their neck out to save an elim weasel if he's an almost guaranteed lynch and put themselves on the map by bringing another bandwagon to the forefront, but assuming the weasel lynch still goes through; which is what will bring the attention on the counterwagon. Elims could possibly join the bandwagon and upon weasel's flip, hope to get some towncred.

Although it took two cycles, we still get an elim and we're finally at a point where we can look at interactions between an elim and villagers and make association-based reads.

Meanwhile, there's no reason to not give thoughts on other players and lay out our suspicions even if we're thinking of joining weasel's lynch or want to bring another wagon. Personally, I'd rather try to get one of my suspicions lynched and I won't cast a vote yet (in case another wagon develops that I feel my vote could help) but I can see the importance of weasel needing to be sorted this cycle. We have around 24 hours, I did promise a wider readslist, which I'm hoping to get up this day turn. 

[Violet Axolotl]

7 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Meanwhile, there's no reason to not give thoughts on other players and lay out our suspicions even if we're thinking of joining weasel's lynch or want to bring another wagon.

I completely agree.  While we need to lynch Weasel again, we should all get our thoughts on a couple of other players out in case we are killed during the coming night.  Of course having said that, I'm not going to be giving reads but rather will be using my new system.  Sorry?

Zebra and Mouse are my top two suspects after Weasel and both are dependent on how he flips.  If Weasel is Elim then there is a 79% chance that Mouse is also Elim while Zebra drops to 56% from 66%.  Conversely, if Weasel is Village, which I really don't see, then Zebra is 81% chance of being Elim while Mouse drops to 58% from 64%.

I was hoping to give a better result this cycle but Weasel is my test case and I can't give proper results until I have some results.  Unfortunately, Rhino was already listed as Village in my system (92% Village) so even he's death doesn't help me out.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Axolotl, would you mind posting all of your percentages? It might help us get a clearer idea of what your voting system is, as all we have to go on right now is your word for it. If we have the results in thread, it’ll be helpful to the village if someone other than you could see how your system is working. 

If Weasel flips village, I’m going to take a really close look at the Elsecaller I contacted, as I think my role analysis from before still has merit. If he flips Elim, I’ll be a lot happier.

Storm it, Toucan, I got too caught up in reading the doc instead of just looking at the top. Well, point taken. But, if Weasel does end up being an Elim Worldhopper, that’s all the better for us, as it’s probably a better role to take out than Elsecaller. Though that is some rotten luck if he drew Elsecaller just when we tried to lynch him.

[Pearl Chameleon]

Weasel. Dragonfly, I really wouldn't support making assumptions about role distribution. Also, as a general note to the thread, I would be cautious about making assumptions on the number of elims as well. Having vague estimates in mind is fine, but don't bank on it. Regarding PM safety, there aren't any PM reading abilities in the game. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

[Azure Mouse]

37 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Regarding PM safety, there aren't any PM reading abilities in the game. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

There isnt, but as far as Herons concerned, I don't think that's the issue with PM safety. They've been saying that people are way more likely to role claim in PMs, which is super dangerous if you claim to a mafia. I'm guessing that part of the problem could be revealing that you're a less important role would help them find a more important one maybe?

[Amethyst Scorpion]

5 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

I originally had a whole post written out about how I thought that was a little unfair, and that we should take another option, but I ended up disagreeing with myself.

So yeah.

Weasel.  Lets get this over with.

Although that last post seemed a little odd, Scorpion.

I'm watching you.

All my posts seem odd to someone it seems. I’ll live with it.

[Emerald Falcon]

Weasel lynch seems to be a given at this point, but I'd just like to point out that Scorpion's posts have a tone that *feels* very similar to what I use sometimes as an Elim to deflect suspicion. Acknowledging suspicion without being concerned by it, (vaguely annoyed at most) letting vague accusations slide off with equally vague rebuttals, or just plain indifference. Hiding behind a lack of investment, either real or feigned.

Of course, that could just be an indifferent villager. Something I will continue to look at nonetheless. Regardless how Weasel flips I wouldn't be against a Scorpion lynch tomorrow, although I do hope to spend some time looking at other suspicions to avoid digging myself too deep of a tunnel. 

[Mauve Crocodile]

I am sick currently, and won't be able to post much. Sorry.

[Violet Axolotl]

4 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Axolotl, would you mind posting all of your percentages? It might help us get a clearer idea of what your voting system is, as all we have to go on right now is your word for it. If we have the results in thread, it’ll be helpful to the village if someone other than you could see how your system is working.

Very well.  Note that it is just as pertains to Weasel.  I have been concentrating mostly on the three I named so it's not all that accurate yet.

	Base Elim %	Weasel Elim	Weasel Village
Albatross	39%	39%	42%
Chameleon	49%	56%	49%
Crocodile	58%	61%	56%
Dragonfly	46%	61%	39%
Elephant	61%	63%	61%
Falcon	59%	59%	55%
Flamingo	50%	64%	49%
Heron	51%	45%	52%
Kangaroo	48%	52%	48%
Mouse	64%	79%	58%
Ostrich	59%	61%	55%
Scorpion	49%	51%	44%
Toucan	45%	35%	45%
Vulture	33%	33%	33%
Weasel	87%	N/A	N/A
Zebra	66%	56%	81%

[Mint Heron]

4 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Weasel. Dragonfly, I really wouldn't support making assumptions about role distribution. Also, as a general note to the thread, I would be cautious about making assumptions on the number of elims as well. Having vague estimates in mind is fine, but don't bank on it. Regarding PM safety, there aren't any PM reading abilities in the game. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

No, I'm not just concerned by PM readers, though they do make everything worse >>

3 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

There isnt, but as far as Herons concerned, I don't think that's the issue with PM safety. They've been saying that people are way more likely to role claim in PMs, which is super dangerous if you claim to a mafia. I'm guessing that part of the problem could be revealing that you're a less important role would help them find a more important one maybe?

Ah well. I would rather not derail this thread but this is worth saying. It'll probably reveal who I am, but I haven't been that careful about that this game. Besides we all know what Hume said about the passions, amirite?  

Let me tell you a story. It's a good one, I promise, full of magic and broness and, of course, betrayal. (Isn't that what we're here for, after all?) It's a little funny, and just a bit sad, and mostly true. A long, long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away there was this guy called Heron -- smart, handsome, charming, you know the type -- in a rioting faction warzone. But things were okay, because he had a great friend, a bro named Kasimar together with him in his faction. As the game progressed they talked and they bantered and they cracked jokes, and all seemed well.

Then a whole bunch of people killed Kasimar. But things were okay, because Kasimar was a Voidbringer, which meant he was a Seeker, and had mad PM skillz the day he was meant to die. And so he reached across the void to call Heron, and as the blood pooled around his body, gasped out everything he had found out about other people's factions and all of his suspicions. Heron swore eternal vengeance on Kasimar's killers and smote them all with the mighty power of the lynch, thus avenging Kasimar.

(Hahaha, no.)

As it turned out, all had not been well, for Heron had, in fact, been a traitor to Kasimar's faction. Heron had, in fact, happily taken all of the information Kasimar freely gave him, smiled a traitorous smile, and pushed his true faction to kill Kasimar. And Heron had, in fact, used that information to bring down Kasimar's faction for once and for all. On that day Heron saw the true power of PMs, and swore never, ever, ever, to trust again the same way that Kasimar had. For Heron, while not wise, did not wish to become a fool.

THE END.

tl;dr don't be stupid, evil players can make PMs too, it's a lot of fun getting innocent villagers to trust you.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Okay, had a long post written and planned out, but my editor didn’t save it when I tried to scroll back through the thread. I’ll try to give a brief summary since I’m short on time. 

Still don’t trust Axolotl’s system. The odds of everyone’s Elimness goes up if he dies, despite most of us advocating a lynch on him. Except Zebra and Toucan for some reason.  

Mint Heron makes good points about PM safety. That said, I still feel OK about my contacts, since I trust them as villagers. If I’m wrong, I’ll die happily, because they did a pretty good job of deceiving me. 

Will be on next cycle. Kind of disappointed in the lack of discussion this cycle. Oh well.