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[OB] Fortune


Calderis

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When Taravangian meets with Odium, we get the line "and you did all this without access to Fortune or the Spiritual Realm?" 

This line, combined with Fortune in reference to the orb in the Lighthouse, got me thinking that we've been thinking of Fortune wrong. 

Fortune always gets brought up as people thinking that it's going to be some kind of luck manipulation. If you think of luck as guessing probability well, then I suppose that's true, but I'd been beginning to think that future sight is manipulation of Fortune. 

Then we get this.

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Questioner [PENDING REVIEW]

So, in Allomancy, most of the metals are in pairs, they’re equal and opposite, pushing and pulling, Rioting, Soothing, that kind of thing. The god metals, lerasium and atium, have always struck me as kind of unbalanced in a way. Like, lerasium gives you the power to use all these metals, plus <inaudible> . Is there a reason for that?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Yes, there is, and it kinda has to do with snapping and some of the fundamental rules of the Mistborn world and the fact that people have Preservation and Ruin inside of them and all these sorts of things. So, the answer is yes.

Partially, narratively, I built that in partially just ‘cause I wanted atium to seem odd in the placement, right, when people got to it it’s like “What? Why is this one… This one doesn’t match the others. This doesn’t really work.” When I was building Mistborn, one of the things I wanted was this idea of a periodic table that was, kind of a flawed construct, that, as you read the books, you came to understand better and better. And that was something I executed. I don’t think I executed that 100% right, but I’m pleased with the general concept and how it plays out. And so I wanted atium to stick out like a sore thumb.

The other thing is, I knew I needed some good foreshadowing for Fortune, for people being able to kinda see the future or versions of the future, for the whole cosmere to work. And, so, I built in atium specifically to do those things. And I built in lerasium to have, kind of, the ultimate sort of benevolent endowment sort of thing. (Not Endowment the Shard, you know what I mean.) But I also wanted to show these two magics were intrinsically tied together on Scadrial because the way that humankind was created. We’re getting into some deep stuff, I’ll just leave it there. But that was what was going through my mind as I was building those things all out. 

So Atium is manipulating Fortune. And if you think about it, it makes sense. It allows you to see the most probable path of events for a couple of seconds into the future. The moment that someone else gains access to this, and can react to it as well, the probabilities begin to shift wildly. 

Then look at electrum. You see only probability as it applies to yourself, and the many ways that you could react to all of the various things that you can't foresee, and it's a much less certain predictor. 

Switch to a more long term view, like Hoidsense, and you get a vague notion of where and when something will happen, but not why, and probabilities can still shift so that he shows up and nothing happens. The farther out you look, the less accurate it becomes. 

Edited by Ookla, the Incalculable
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I don't really read atium as manipulation of Fortune.

But I do see Fortune as being related to future-sight. I think that Fortune is something that applies to Spiritual Realm: when you look at the Connections going into the future, you can get information from this, right? You can choose your path, then look again, adjust your actions and repeat. That way you can choose to act in a way that is favorable to your goals.

Now, Fortune would be working on that mechanism. Not the whole "look in the future and adjust" but more... automatic. Drawing on Fortune would push you along the favorable path, but you won't necessarily know why (as you don't actually look into the future).

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This is mostly in line with my idea of Fortune.
I saw it as a Spiritual Intuite. An unconscious sense that allow everyone to feel the possibilities from the Spiritual Realms and of course as the most of the people are not masochistic, they unconscious choose the best actions they could feel....This translate the unconscious Future Sight with a mundane Luck.

 

 

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To quote myself from another topic:

On 11/26/2017 at 0:55 PM, Spoolofwhool said:

Just going to weigh in, I don't think chromium feruchemy actually affects what is generally referred to as luck, as in the probabilities of certain events to occur. It cannot make beneficial events which are unlikely to occur more likely simply by virtue of tapping. I think what Fortune does is that it's more about instinct, a little voice in your head that makes you think one decision is better than another. However, it uses the spiritual realm and slight emanations from the future, to make that voice suggest actions would be more beneficial to you. 

In other words, it can only affect events which you can operate on, by you performing actions which will make the event more beneficial for you. 
To make an example of a coinspinner at a casino: If they sat down at a slot machine and played 1000 times while tapping, the odds of them winning would be the exact same every time, and the odds would be the same as if they had played without tapping. However, if they had gone to a roulette wheel and tapped, they could've felt a stronger instinct for which number would be chosen, and bet accordingly. 

As a final example, in Harry Potter 6, when Harry drinks the Felix Felicis, from his voice he's getting an inner suggesting actions to do, as well as instinct on them being good choices. That is basically how I see tapping chromium to be. 

So yes, I think Fortune is more instinctive, or passive, whereas true future sight like atium is more active, where you are given an actual awareness of what is to come.

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3 hours ago, Exalted Dungeon Master said:

So what we're really saying here is that tapping Fortune is like having an on-demand supply of Felix Felicis?

That's what I think yes. Storing it though would probably either suppress natural instinct of this nature, as well as potentially give you an instinct towards bad choices.

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@Spoolofwhool if you look at the way that atium functions though, probability is the key. It's short term, and processed properly to give you the shadows for a true "sight," but once someone can do the same probability is altered drastically and a clear view is no longer achievable.

I do think most forms of Fortune function differently than atium. I think it's a function of the method of access as opposed to the underlying mechanism though. I don't think that feruchemical Chromium is going to function like atium, but more like you just described, with higher intuition while tapping and lower while storing. I don't see how that runs counter to what I've proposed though. 

One is highly focused on the short term, and has a Cognitive expansion designed specifically to view what is shown. The other is based on storing and tapping the inherent instincts all people have. It's very fitting for the ways that Allomancy and Feruchemy function. 

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Just now, Spoolofwhool said:

@Ookla, the Incalculable
What I described is what I think Fortune is in its entirety, not just chromium feruchemy. I do not think Atium allomancy or any sort of actual sight through the spiritual realm fall under what is considered to be Fortune. 

Then in what way could Brandon have been using atium to foreshadow Fortune? 

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8 minutes ago, Ookla, the Incalculable said:

Then in what way could Brandon have been using atium to foreshadow Fortune? 

My impression is that he was saying that it was foreshadowing for being able to gain glimpses or hints of the future in general, not just Fortune. Basically, the idea that prediction abilities can exist. 

Edited by Spoolofwhool
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3 minutes ago, Spoolofwhool said:

My impression is that it was foreshadowing for being able to gain glimpses or hints of the future in general, not just Fortune. Basically, the idea that prediction abilities can exist. 

Fair enough. 

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14 hours ago, Spoolofwhool said:

My impression is that he was saying that it was foreshadowing for being able to gain glimpses or hints of the future in general, not just Fortune. Basically, the idea that prediction abilities can exist. 

 

Not to mention. The Atium vs Atium battles are a bit of foreshadowing for Renarin vs Odium battles. Renarin can see the future and that is why Odium cant predict how Renarin effects his plan.

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I’m with Cal, honestly. When the Elantrian asks if Kal came for a fortune, it’s clearly referring to something more like a Chinese Fortune Cookie - hints about the future through visions or predictions - rather than good luck. Furthermore, Ishar is known as the Herald of Luck. How does that make sense, knowing what we do about his traits, and the order of Bondsmiths? Nothing. But combining Pious and Guiding with powers related to the future, and the fact that Bondsmiths share the center of the Double Eye with Truthwatchers, and there’s just too many coincidences to ignore, imo. Braize, Dalinar even describes in the Oathbringer preface that he was hanging between realms and was sure people could see further than him. Luck seems to be a misnomer like Adhesion and Chickens, imo. 

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I think there's a wider aspect of Fortune that is missing from all of this. 

One of the mysteries from Mistborn is the prophesy on the Hero of Ages. As far as I can tell, neither Ruin nor Preservation was fully aware of this prophesy. While Preservation may have been ok with it, Ruin definitely would have tried to stop it if he fully understood. Also the time frame of this prophesy was millennia, so how did it come to fruition? 

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55 minutes ago, kmosiman said:

As far as I can tell, neither Ruin nor Preservation was fully aware of this prophesy.

Preservation knew quite a bit about it.

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Chaos

How were the Terris Prophecies created in the first place? Every other magic related thing is quite logically explained in terms of Ruin and Preservation, except that one.

Brandon Sanderson

The Terris prophecies were created by Preservation before he attempted his imprisonment. He knew that he wouldn't be able to do much for the world after he did what he did, and he foresaw a LOT of what was to come.

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Well that's a whole lot of foresight (or railroading the future of the world so it will most likely end up right).

That makes it seem like less of a prediction and more or a set up. All the things that could have changed to keep this from happening, should have prevented this from happening.

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24 minutes ago, kmosiman said:

That makes it seem like less of a prediction and more or a set up. All the things that could have changed to keep this from happening, should have prevented this from happening.

Preservation did imprison Ruin to make it more likely to succeed, but several things were luck and happenstance. For example, TLR was instrumental in keeping the plan afloat, but he only managed to take the job because Ruin got tunnel vision.

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VegasDev (16 October 2008)

Alendi's "Piercings of the Hero"?

Brandon Sanderson (17 October 2008)

This is part of the manipulation Ruin did during the classical era on Scadrial, before the coming of the Lord Ruler. Piercings, and Hemalurgy, were part of the world before the coming of Allomancy in its modern form. Then, they were seen as a means of communicating with deity—which, indeed, they were. Ruin manipulated this to make sure any Hero of Ages who came would be under his influence. The reference is included mostly to indicate that yes, Alendi was under Ruin's influence. He ignored Rashek, though. (At least, right up to the moment when everything went 'wrong' for Ruin, when Rashek killed his chosen Hero of Ages.)
Edited by The One Who Connects
broken sentences...
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