Quick Fix Game 19: Noble Intentions

[Dani she/her]

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

The other two people up for lynching seem to be Ripple, and Nathan.  I could see killing an inactive, but honestly I'd prefer to let the filter hit him eventually.  That's why we have a filter.   

Did you not see how he avoided the filter by posting at the last moment? The rules state that if a player is inactive for 48 hours they die, and Nathan didn't make a single post the whole two cycles except that one at the end, barely saving himself from inactivity death. What's stopping him from doing it again? 

[Magestar he/him]

24 minutes ago, Daniyah said:

Did you not see how he avoided the filter by posting at the last moment? The rules state that if a player is inactive for 48 hours they die, and Nathan didn't make a single post the whole two cycles except that one at the end, barely saving himself from inactivity death. What's stopping him from doing it again?

I'm scrolling through last cycle and not seeing it.  I suppose he must have posted to have not died this round.  Still, I would probably suggest having a coinshot deal with him, in that case.

edit;  I found it.  Wow.  That really is just a filter block.  I would make a note that this is Nathan's first game, so I'm not going to make any judgements, but I wouldn't mind seeing a coinshot kill him, just in case.  That post looks really bad.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Magestar

[Stick. she/her]

Sorry, guys, I couldn't post anything beyond PMs yesterday as I was crazy busy with RL stuff. Normally, at this point, I would have votes piled up on me and at least a few suspicions. But since none of that happened I'll take it as a good sign . I've decieded to just post these rough (and very inaccurate, I'm sure XD) reads on the remaining players, based on the reasoning most of you have already given, but they're mostly gut reads (I guess you all already know but eh: 0%= elim and 100%= village) I don't have a clue about the neutrals ATM, so I'm just going to act like they don't exist :]

Elenion :  Arboreon 47%

 

Magestar : Magus Astrum 47%

 

Assassin in Burgundy :  Burkare 38%

 

Ecthelion III : Luckless Gibbs 39%

 

Dankness Ascendant :  Scinoness Khaz 38%

 

RippleGlyf :  Aurore Lepinceau 39%

 

Alvron :  Lor 51%

 

Nathanvanduij : Nathan 33%

 

Daniyah : Svetao Ngao 52%

 

 

Wonko the Sane : Dr. Relin 51%

 

Arraenae : Richelle 36%

 

Sart : Sartiarty 47%

 

TheMightyLopen : Stahl 52%

 

I_am_a_Stick : Stick 99.99% noble-free XD

 

AliasSheep : STINK 46%

 

Also, why are there so many regulars from the village? Some of the people in my PMs have claimed regulars, too. There're approximately 8 Elims, right (including neutrals)? And..uh..5..or 6 elims (excluding neutrals)? So there're at least 3-4 elims left aren't they? But there're eight roles...so 9-10 elims in total? Which leaves 7-8 elims remaining? See, figuring this out is so confusing XD I don't even know what I'm saying :-P
But coming to the lynch, I agree with Dani on the Nathan part because it makes sense, that is something someone would do if they're an elim on their game1, but I'd prefer Nathan to say something in their defense, anyway. (I might take my vote off Nathan and onto..someone else if nathan gives convincing reasons, though)

 

[Elenion he/him]

28 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Also, why are there so many regulars from the village? Some of the people in my PMs have claimed regulars, too. There're approximately 8 Elims, right (including neutrals)? And..uh..5..or 6 elims (excluding neutrals)? So there're at least 3-4 elims left aren't they? But there're eight roles...so 9-10 elims in total? Which leaves 7-8 elims remaining? See, figuring this out is so confusing XD I don't even know what I'm saying :-P

Where are you getting these numbers? I did some projections of my own: a balanced eliminator team in a game of 20 players, with vigilante kills, is either 4 strong roles or 5 average. Since Doc was vanilla, I can only assume that this means there were 5 starting Nobles. Since this is a Joe game I expect 2 or 3 neutrals, but that still puts us at a maximum of 8 non-villagers.

Also, it would be wise to have @A Joe in the Bush tell us that if an elim dies from the filter, will their role be given to a villager, be lost from the game, or will a vanilla villager be converted into an elim?

31 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Also, why are there so many regulars from the village? Some of the people in my PMs have claimed regulars, too.

I wouldn't be surprised if the "regulars" were part of some secret Joe mechanic that's integral to the game. *scans Joe's posts for white text*

[Magestar he/him]

1 hour ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Also, why are there so many regulars from the village? Some of the people in my PMs have claimed regulars, too. There're approximately 8 Elims, right (including neutrals)? And..uh..5..or 6 elims (excluding neutrals)? So there're at least 3-4 elims left aren't they?

This is probably right.  It agrees with what I've seen in previous games, plus it matches Len's projections.

1 hour ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

But there're eight roles...so 9-10 elims in total? Which leaves 7-8 elims remaining? See, figuring this out is so confusing XD I don't even know what I'm saying :-P

This is probably wrong.  You're assuming the Elims have one of each role, which is usually not the case, IMO.  

48 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the "regulars" were part of some secret Joe mechanic that's integral to the game. *scans Joe's posts for white text*

Idk.  In previous games I've been in there have always been more regulars than I expected.   It probably has to do with balance things that I don't understand.

[Assassin in Burgundy he/him]

@I_am_a_Stick, why am I at 38%?

[Elenion he/him]

6 hours ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

Oh jesus, almost missed this cycle. How is it possible for so many people to die in one Night? Is this a record?

Look up the D4 write-up for Joe's last game, LG24. That holds the record for most deaths by single kill, and there were vigilante kills besides that.

6 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Idk.  In previous games I've been in there have always been more regulars than I expected.

Even compared to previous games this seems like a lot, especially considering that there are at least 2 Coinshots running around at night.

 

A thought I just had: You'd think that if Nathan was completely inactive with no contacts, then there would be no one contesting the votes on him. The way that things have panned out with a sudden reluctance to lynch him, I think that he may have teammates out trying to make sure that he isn't lynched by accusing others.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

GM Note: Something went wrong, and Bugsy was killed for the wrong reasons. That is to say, the same coinshot killed both Orlok and Bugsy. Unfortunately, nothing can be done at this point to bring Bugsy back into the game, so he's still dead.

@Elenion If an Eliminator dies from the filter, a Roleless Eliminator would receive their role.

Due to daylight's saving time, the game is ending in

 

[Arraenae]

C1, both El and Nyali voted on Ecth at one point. Both El and Nyali were killed by the elims. This could be a coincidence, but maybe not.

Does anyone know which games El and Nyali were spectacularily good villagers in, and which players in here were also in those games? If the eliminators are killing players that they fear, we might be able to narrow them down by finding which games gave them reason to fear village!El and village!Nyali.

Ripple, Magestar, I know that voting on Aman was a stupid decision, one that almost let an eliminator live. If I'd paid more attention to what people were saying about Doc, I probably would have voted on Doc. Unfortunately, I didn't have the time to analyse what was being said, so I agreed with Orlok's post about Aman without much thinking.

I'll admit it: I'm really, really bad at reading Aman. In LG24, in what was essentially a faction game, a trusted player with very good reads was telling me that Aman was an eliminator, a confirmed villager had been telling me that Aman had been an eliminator pulling off a gambit, my own gut was telling me that Aman was an eliminator, and he still guilt-tripped me into saving his sorry hide from Lopen's vigilante attack. So yes, now I'm a little paranoid when it comes to Aman. Hopefully, in a few games I can work myself out of that paranoia, because it's not fun for either of us if I put him on a pedestal that no human player can possibly stand on. 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

17 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

C1, both El and Nyali voted on Ecth at one point. Both El and Nyali were killed by the elims. This could be a coincidence, but maybe not.

Next up is Lopen, then 

[Nathanvanduij he/him]

The reason I have been inactive is because I am new. I was able to not be eliminated from inactivity is because buggy reminded me to post before the cut off time. 

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Does anyone know which games El and Nyali were spectacularily good villagers in, and which players in here were also in those games? If the eliminators are killing players that they fear, we might be able to narrow them down by finding which games gave them reason to fear village!El and village!Nyali.

I'm running that one now. Will have results in a few minutes.

 

Results: (edited in)

As far as I can tell, there's only been one other game since I've started playing (MR15) that has had both El and Nyali in it as players, and it seems like a suitable candidate for your theory all except for one thing: it was faction elimination, not standard. But it does fit perfectly into the motivations you describe. The game was MR16: Alv's war of the worlds. El was on Nalthis with me, and Nyali was allied with us for the latter half. The rest of our faction got nailed early, but between El, Nyali, and I (mostly El and Nyali); we orchestrated a comeback from having only 2 faction players to winning the game.

Players who were in MR16 and are alive in this one:

1. Ecth
2. Dani
3. Lopen
4. Stick
5. Alv (GM)
6. Me

Edited November 6, 2016 by Elenion

[Magestar he/him]

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Does anyone know which games El and Nyali were spectacularily good villagers in, and which players in here were also in those games? If the eliminators are killing players that they fear, we might be able to narrow them down by finding which games gave them reason to fear village!El and village!Nyali.

33 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I'm running that one now. Will have results in a few minutes.

Coming straight here from watching an episode of Sherlock, I find these posts rather amusing.

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

I'll admit it: I'm really, really bad at reading Aman. In LG24, in what was essentially a faction game, a trusted player with very good reads was telling me that Aman was an eliminator, a confirmed villager had been telling me that Aman had been an eliminator pulling off a gambit, my own gut was telling me that Aman was an eliminator, and he still guilt-tripped me into saving his sorry hide from Lopen's vigilante attack. So yes, now I'm a little paranoid when it comes to Aman. Hopefully, in a few games I can work myself out of that paranoia, because it's not fun for either of us if I put him on a pedestal that no human player can possibly stand on. 

I can see that.  To be honest, it's hard not to be paranoid of Aman.  However, I agree that it's probably good to try and temper that paranoia with reason. 

Rae.  I still have some suspicions of you, and a bad gut read, but your post has dissuaded me from lynching you for now.

Nathan's response also cleared up most of my worries about him, as well.

edited to respond to Len's edit;  Looking at that list, Ecth and Lopen come to mind as the most viable options.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Magestar

[Stick. she/her]

 

3 hours ago, Assassin in Burgundy said:

@I_am_a_Stick, why am I at 38%?

Well, you haven't really posted much, which didn't give me anything to think upon, so I couldn't place you above 49%. Also, I kinda have a bad gut read on you, which made you land on 38%. But I'm definitely not voting against you without a legitimate reason, not yet anyway  

1 hour ago, Nathanvanduij said:

The reason I have been inactive is because I am new. I was able to not be eliminated from inactivity is because buggy reminded me to post before the cut off time. 

Nathan.  Only because I would feel really bad if you actually turn out to be a villager. Like jefry in MR17 XD But I'm not entirely convinced of you not being an elim...

 

Edited November 6, 2016 by I_am_a_Stick
typo

[Dani she/her]

1 hour ago, Nathanvanduij said:

The reason I have been inactive is because I am new. I was able to not be eliminated from inactivity is because buggy reminded me to post before the cut off time. 

I had thought of that possibility, seeing as how you're friends in RL. Sometimes new players are more comfortable talking in PMs instead of in the thread, would you be willing to discuss the game in PMs? 

Nathan. 

[Nathanvanduij he/him]

22 minutes ago, Daniyah said:

I had thought of that possibility, seeing as how you're friends in RL. Sometimes new players are more comfortable talking in PMs instead of in the thread, would you be willing to discuss the game in PMs? 

Nathan. 

Of course it may be useful to me to find out why to do next as I am very confused 

[Arraenae]

Nyali voted on Jondesu before he died. Seems like the elims are killing the people they're scared of.

Magestar, why didn't you vote on Jondesu last cycle?

Edited November 6, 2016 by Arraenae
color

[Magestar he/him]

Quote

However, I'm not feeling the Jondesu lynch.  I don't think I really have any better ideas, so I'm not going to add chaos at this point

Quote

I'm not going to vote this cycle, because I don't feel like I have enough to go on.  QFs usually get past me pretty quickly, and I've been pretty busy in RL, so I apologize for being less active than usual and hope to get my feet back under me next cycle.

These were parts of my posts last cycle.  Like I said then, I didn't really feel the need to add a vote.  I didn't have an opinion, so I held back.  There were already five more votes on Jondesu than on anyone else.  

Basically, I really just didn't care.  Looking back, I can't see a good reason not to have put a vote on him, but I had had a long day and just didn't.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Magestar
Clarifying.

[Arraenae]

Ah, fair enough. Real Life can be a pain sometimes.

Mage.

In the beginning of C2, on page 6 of the QF19 main thread, Len said that based off of his pervious experience being on an elim team with Jondesu, C1 the elims must have told Jondesu to direct the lynch away from Doc and he panicked. That was a strangely specific hypothesis, which makes me think that he's based off of the truth or a variation of it. The only way for Len to know that would be if Len was on the same team.

I can't link that post (stupid mobile), but it shouldn't be too hard to find it.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Vote tally:

Ripple(2): Wonko, Lopen
Rae(2): Ecth, Ripple
Darkness Ascendant(1): Alvron
Nathan(1): Elenion
Elenion(1): Rae

I think we should probably try and make a bigger gap on whoever we lynch. I don't really think Rae should be lynched, so I'm keeping my vote on Ripple. If a different lynch candidate takes the lead before the Cycle ends, I may move my vote to widen the gap. But as things stand right now, Ripple is still my top suspect and I'd prefer to lynch her over anyone else right now. If not her, then probably Darkness Ascendant, as he still has yet to meaningfully contribute to the lynch discussion. His inactivity leads me to suspect he may be spending most of his game time in an elim doc. That's pure conjecture at this point, but I do feel he's been much quieter than normal.

[Arraenae]

Ripple Len so I don't die. I know I'm village.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

One point in my favor is that Rae's not dead yet. If I were an eliminator, she'd be long gone. (I'm still mad at you for Cognitive Dissonance)

[Alvron]

Unless you're teammates.  Or you left her alive just so you could use her as a reason why you're not an Elim.

[Arraenae]

3 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

One point in my favor is that Rae's not dead yet. If I were an eliminator, she'd be long gone. (I'm still mad at you for Cognitive Dissonance)

So, you're not an eliminator because you haven't gone on a roaring rampage of revenge and demanded my head C1 or C2? Good to know.

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Ripple Len so I don't die. I know I'm village.

I didn't even realize you had voted on me. 

 

Nathan. Killing Jefry last game saddened even the heartless elim that I was, and I don't want another Jefry.

I'm not feeling either the Ripple or the Rae lynch (I don't have any real suspicions on either of them), so I'm voting for Dankness because his sudden inactivity makes me suspicious. I, like Lopen, would be willing to be that it's because he's been in an elim doc.

 

Edit:

6 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

roaring rampage of revenge

That alliteration though. XD

Edited November 6, 2016 by Elenion