Theory: Taravangian saw the Spiritual Realm

[Torrieltar]

We already know that something was different about Taravangian's day of brilliance. On Adrotagia's chart, his intelligence was completely off the charts, something that could only be expected maybe once every two thousand years--this makes it immediately suspect for the rabid theorizers of the 17th Shard. Furthermore, we've actually seen that when Taravangian is smart normally, he actually gets worse at predicting the actions of other people. After all, he suggested a law that people under a certain IQ should commit suicide, and expected it to actually work. Something doesn't add up here.

It's always been my opinion that on Taravangian's day of brilliance, that he was intelligent enough that his mind transcended the Cognitive Realm and saw into the Spiritual Realm in some limited way. This would explain the discrepancy between this day and every other, as well as some of Taravangian's more unlikely deductions.

Let's put aside the fact that he apparently knew each and every one of the most powerful people in Roshar well enough to reliably predict how they would react, despite being demonstrably worse in some ways at predicting the actions of others on his more intelligent days. You might even explain his knowledge about Taln (ch. 83), the honorblades (ch. 78), the secret behind the Recrearnce (ch. 84), and the Unmade (ch. 81-82) as piecing together knowledge from old legends and Gavilar's visions.

But how, in Chapter 88, could he know exactly when the Everstorm would strike? And, of course, the epigraph from chapter 85. "But who is the wanderer, the wild piece, the one who makes no sense? I glimpse at his implications, and the world opens to me. I shy back. Impossible. Is it?"  This gives me the impression that more's going on here than simple guesswork, but that Taravangian was actually seeing something.

The evidence doesn't stop here, though. We've seen descriptions of other characters looking into the Spiritual Realm before. Compare the descriptions Taravangian gives to of the day he wrote the Diagram to these descriptions of looking into the Spiritual Realm.

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He didn't remember any of this. It was the product of twenty hours of lucid insanity, the most brilliant he had ever been. -Words of Radiance, Interlude I-14

 

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Secret History Spoilers

Spoiler

As he moved, Kelsier tried yet again to sort through the conflicting set of images, impression, and ideas he'd experienced in that place where he could perceive everything...

From there however, his thoughts grew more vague. These people, the Ire, were working on something dangerous. Something he could use against Ruin . . . maybe.

That was all he had. Preservation was right; the threads in that place between moments were too knotted, too ephemeral, to give him much beyond a vague impression. -Mistborn: Secret History, Part 4, Chapter 1

 

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He turned his attention back to the book, the Diagram. That grand plan he had devised on his singular day of unparalleled brilliance. Then, too, he'd spent the day staring at a wall. He'd written on it. Babbling the whole time, making connections no man had ever made, he had scribbled all over his walls, floor, even parts of the ceiling he could reach... -Words of Radiance, Interlude I-14

 

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Secret History Spoilers

Spoiler

Everything else was vaporized; nothing could withstand that terrible, wonderful light. Kelsier lost form, thought very being. He transcended self and entered a place of flowing light. Ribbons of it exploded from him, and though he tried to scream, he had no voice.

Time didn't pass; time had no relevance here. It was not a place. Location had no relevance. Only Connection, person to person, man to world, Kelsier to god. -Mistborn: Secret History, Part 3, Chapter 3

 

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The Diagram was not perfect, however. They caught errors in it now and then. Or . . . not truly errors, just missed guesses. Taravangian had been supremely brilliant that day, but he had not been able to see the future. He had made educated guesses--very educated--and had been right and eerie amount of the time. But the farther they went from that day and the knowledge he'd had then, the more the Diagram needed tending and cultivation to stay on course. -Words of Radiance, Interlude I-14

 

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The figure squinted at the horizon. "I cannot see the future completely. Cultivation, she is better at it than I. It's as if the future is a shattering window. The further you look, the more pieces that window breaks into. The near future can be anticipated, but the distant future . . . I can only guess." -The Way of Kings, Chapter 75.

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Now, you might be wondering, "Didn't Taravangian just say in that last quote that he didn't see the future?" Yes, but as shown in the first quote, Taravangian doesn't actually remember any of it. He's just basing that statement on the fact that there are errors every now and then, which is consistent with seeing into the Spiritual Realm.

So, between the uniqueness of that one day, the inexplicable accuracy of the Diagram, and the similarity of the description to other instances of peering into the Spiritual Realm, it seems clear to me that that's what Taravangian did on that day. But what does all of this mean? I find it pretty ominous that the guy who looked into the Spiritual Realm figures the measures he's taking are the best chance humanity has for survival. I also find it interesting that both the Diagram and Nale, two of the most knowledgeable factions we know of, both oppose the return of the Radiants. Only time will tell...

[Argent]

I think this is a very reasonable idea.

[Argel]

4 hours ago, Evenstrom said:

The Diagram was not perfect, however. They caught errors in it now and then. Or . . . not truly errors, just missed guesses. Taravangian had been supremely brilliant that day, but he had not been able to see the future. He had made educated guesses--very educated--and had been right and eerie amount of the time. But the farther they went from that day and the knowledge he'd had then, the more the Diagram needed tending and cultivation to stay on course. -Words of Radiance, Interlude I-14

This quote supports either theory.  For example, in Chess, what your opponent can do next turn is very limited, and thus easy to remember and easier to predict which move your opponent will make. The more turns out you go the harder it becomes, to the point where you surpass your ability to memorize and predict.

For example, one of my favorite Chess quotes (bold+underline emphasis added):

 

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One amusing anecdote frequently quoted from Tal's autobiography takes the form of a hypothetical conversation between Tal and a journalist (actually co-author Yakov Damsky). It offers a modest, self-deprecating view of his reputation for unerring calculation at the board:

Journalist:   It might be inconvenient to interrupt our profound discussion and change the subject slightly, but I would like to know whether extraneous, abstract thoughts ever enter your head while playing a game?

Tal:   Yes. For example, I will never forget my game with GM Vasiukov on a USSR Championship. We reached a very complicated position where I was intending to sacrifice a knight. The sacrifice was not obvious; there was a large number of possible variations; but when I began to study hard and work through them, I found to my horror that nothing would come of it. Ideas piled up one after another. I would transport a subtle reply by my opponent, which worked in one case, to another situation where it would naturally prove to be quite useless. As a result my head became filled with a completely chaotic pile of all sorts of moves, and the infamous "tree of variations", from which the chess trainers recommend that you cut off the small branches, in this case spread with unbelievable rapidity.
And then suddenly, for some reason, I remembered the classic couplet by Korney Ivanović Chukovsky: "Oh, what a difficult job it was. To drag out of the marsh the hippopotamus".^[26]

I do not know from what associations the hippopotamus got into the chess board, but although the spectators were convinced that I was continuing to study the position, I, despite my humanitarian education, was trying at this time to work out: just how WOULD you drag a hippopotamus out of the marsh? I remember how jacks figured in my thoughts, as well as levers, helicopters, and even a rope ladder.
After a lengthy consideration I admitted defeat as an engineer, and thought spitefully to myself: "Well, just let it drown!" And suddenly the hippopotamus disappeared. Went right off the chessboard just as he had come on ... of his own accord! And straightaway the position did not appear to be so complicated. Now I somehow realized that it was not possible to calculate all the variations, and that the knight sacrifice was, by its very nature, purely intuitive. And since it promised an interesting game, I could not refrain from making it.

And the following day, it was with pleasure that I read in the paper how Mikhail Tal, after carefully thinking over the position for 40 minutes, made an accurately calculated piece sacrifice.

— Mikhail Tal, The Life and Games of Mikhail Tal.

 

 

I can definitively believe he touched the SR, but the problem is that given enough intelligence and enough information, he could also memorize and predict much, much better, and when he reached the limitations of his new abilities, could have still use intuition to determine the most likely outcome.

Another problem is T stayed present enough to write everything down and write a way to translate the anew language he created. But in the SH quote:

Spoiler

4 hours ago, Evenstrom said:

Kelsier lost form, thought very being

 

But maybe T touched the SR and then wrote down what he saw afterwards?

The other problem I see is that e.g. Cultivation or Odium could have been influencing him, and I'm not sure if we can tell the difference.

One thing I like about your theory is that there's no direct influence on T, so every decision made based on it is all on him. That's a lot of blood on his hands, with no one to shift blame to.

Anyway, have an upvote for such an interesting theory.

[Djarskublar]

Lol I posted more or less the same topic with a similar argument just a couple days ago. Great minds and all that I guess. One thing though, he didn't just know that the Everstorm was going to hit then, that means nothing out of context. It's like saying 'winter is coming' ... It's pointless without knowing what that winter is. He had to have understood the Listeners well enough to know they would enter Stormform. That means understanding them on a Spiritual level. They didn't know about the form at the time. That means he learned all the mechanics of forms, and decided that Stormform was the one they would end up using.

I also don't believe he could have read all the things you mentioned in books. Sure, sure, greatest library in the world, but does he have time for serious scholarly study like Jasnah? Nope, and besides, would Jasnah have found those books if they existed? I think that since Jasnah didn't read about the Shin and Honorblades then Mr T couldn't have.

Nice job on coming up with the same theory. You did provide another perspective, which is good. And it makes me feel better, since people in the other thread didn't like it.

[Yata]

Mr T has in own house the greatest library of the world. He may manipulate Roshar's Knowledge with some effort.

Remember also that we don't know if he began to gather Death Rattle before or after the Ultra-Mega-Super-Smart Day... Some of deductions may actually come from future knowledge (from the Death Rattle) that He manage to understand and put together in that day.

I don't want to say Mr T didn't see the actual future, just He has a lot of sources of Information. His Knowledge before the Day may be comprensive of some cryptic future clue.

[Jondesu]

1 hour ago, Argel said:

This quote supports either theory.  For example, in Chess, what your opponent can do next turn is very limited, and thus easy to remember and easier to predict which move your opponent will make. The more turns out you go the harder it becomes, to the point where you surpass your ability to memorize and predict.

For example, one of my favorite Chess quotes (bold+underline emphasis added):

 

 

I can definitively believe he touched the SR, but the problem is that given enough intelligence and enough information, he could also memorize and predict much, much better, and when he reached the limitations of his new abilities, could have still use intuition to determine the most likely outcome.

Another problem is T stayed present enough to write everything down and write a way to translate the anew language he created. But in the SH quote:

  Hide contents

 

But maybe T touched the SR and then wrote down what he saw afterwards?

The other problem I see is that e.g. Cultivation or Odium could have been influencing him, and I'm not sure if we can tell the difference.

One thing I like about your theory is that there's no direct influence on T, so every decision made based on it is all on him. That's a lot of blood on his hands, with no one to shift blame to.

Anyway, have an upvote for such an interesting theory.

I've figured for a long time that "future sight" in the Cosmere is really just reading the Spiritual Connections and following them to their outcomes.  Time doesn't matter much in the Cosmere, but I don't think anything is predestined either (we can debate if that's true in our world, but I don't think it is in the Cosmere ), so the Shards that can predict the future are simply making sense of the great amount of information and Connections they can see in the Spiritual Realm and can make very accurate predictions about the relatively near future.  As Honor said, it gets tougher the further into the future they go, like looking through shattered glass; I think that's because those Connections become ever more unpredictable as the "moves" play out, just like in a chess game.  Chess players can predict sometimes 60-100 moves ahead, but that's usually with several options for each move the opposing player makes, unless you can force a particular move.  The further ahead they try to guess, the more complicated the possible options become until even the best players can't necessarily keep track, or simply can't plan for the myriad possibilities.  Chess also has a definitive end; the Cosmere doesn't (within the foreseeable future, since non of the cataclysmic events have threatened the Cosmere as a whole yet, just specific worlds).

I think if Taravangian touched the SR, it was in a different way than the Shards or 

Spoiler

Kelsier, who was in the Cognitive as a Cognitive Shadow (and no physical form at all).

He wouldn't have been aware of his actions in the Physical Realm, but perhaps if this was indeed his boon from the Nightwatcher as we believe, part of that was an ability to remain Physically grounded enough to unconsciously scribble out these Connections he was making.

@Evenstrom, wonderful theory, and have an upvote!

jW

[Djarskublar]

14 minutes ago, Yata said:

Mr T has in own house the greatest library of the world. He may manipulate Roshar's Knowledge with some effort.

Remember also that we don't know if he began to gather Death Rattle before or after the Ultra-Mega-Super-Smart Day... Some of deductions may actually come from future knowledge (from the Death Rattle) that He manage to understand and put together in that day.

I don't want to say Mr T didn't see the actual future, just He has a lot of sources of Information. His Knowledge before the Day may be comprensive of some cryptic future clue.

While I take your point on the death rattles, the library is literally irrelevant. How many ancient texts about experiencing Celtic mythology first-hand have you read? Neither has he. While he likely has more free time than most rulers, he is still running a kingdom. Any books he has read are more likely to be about how to be a good Vorin king, not about Honorblades. He is more likely to read ledgers/finances and books of practical information. Take also the fact that the Heirocracy concealed much information, and I come to the conclusion that there is no way he could have read the books he needed to for this to work.

[Torrieltar]

1 hour ago, Argel said:

Another problem is T stayed present enough to write everything down and write a way to translate the anew language he created. But in the SH quote:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

But maybe T touched the SR and then wrote down what he saw afterwards?

 

Another option is that he wasn't quite as immersed in the Spiritual Realm as SPOILER was, sort of like how Shallan was able go just partway into Shadesmar when she tried to soulcast Stick.

 

53 minutes ago, Djarskublar said:

Lol I posted more or less the same topic with a similar argument just a couple days ago. Great minds and all that I guess.

 

Ha! That's seriously cool, what a coincidence. I guess you get Hoid's Novelty Award for this theory

Edited September 2, 2016 by Evenstrom
the spoiler tag.

[The One Who Connects]

5 minutes ago, Djarskublar said:

While I take your point on the death rattles, the library is literally irrelevant. How many ancient texts about experiencing Celtic mythology first-hand have you read? Neither has he. While he likely has more free time than most rulers, he is still running a kingdom. Any books he has read are more likely to be about how to be a good Vorin king, not about Honorblades. He is more likely to read ledgers/finances and books of practical information. Take also the fact that the Heirocracy concealed much information, and I come to the conclusion that there is no way he could have read the books he needed to for this to work.

I think Yata mentioned the library just as another source of information he could have drawn from. Originally, he only ran the small nation-city of Kharbranth, and pre-Diagram he likely didn't even have his secret society to occupy some of his time. Granted, before his secret society he would be more likely just to read practical stuff, but people can have side hobbies.

I fully accept that some information was corrupted by the Hierocracy, but they wouldn't want to alter everything, and it's a lot of effort "inventing" new texts to replace the old, unless they just rewrote specific details (that sounds like Ruin.. odd).

All in all, I'm not saying that the books gave him foreknowledge, but spiritual realm or no: mental leaps work better if you have more points to start from.

[Argel]

The Death Rattles started before Gavilar was assassinated:

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“We do not know why some speak when others do not,” Taravangian said. “But the dying see something. It began seven years ago, about the time when King Gavilar was investigating the Shattered Plains for the first time.” His eyes grew distant. “It is coming, and these people see it. On that bridge between life and the endless ocean of death, they view something. Their words might save us.”

Sanderson, Brandon. The Way of Kings (The Stormlight Archive, Book 1) (p. 976). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition. 

 

That's a huge wealth of information to draw upon and could easily explain knowledge supposedly hard to come by.

As a side note, since they come from one of the Unmade, it's an obvious way Odium could have influence on The Diagram, possibly without even realizing it. Edit: Odium could be at risk of dying from laughter....

Edited September 2, 2016 by Argel

[galendo]

I feel the people who are saying that Taravangian couldn't have possibly read everything relevant are kind of missing the point.  Most of the conclusions the Diagram makes wouldn't necessarily require some deep and esoteric knowledge of the nature of the Cosmere.  Let's take the Honorblades, for example.  The thought process might have gone something like:

Where are the Honorblades? --> They are highly Invested. --> Investiture interferes with other Investiture. --> The highstorms are highly Invested. --> The highstorms do not hit Shinovar. --> There are also no spren in Shinovar.
Therefore, the Honorblades must be in Shinovar.

The above process requires some basic familiarity with a theory of Investiture, but it's not the only way to reach the same conclusion:

Where are the Honorblades --> They are powerful weapons of war. --> Powerful weapons would be used, were a country at war. --> The Shin are the only people never at war.
Therefore, if they are not lost, the Honorblades must be in Shinovar.

Also, the argument that just because the library didn't have information about Topic X (let's say Investiture, to continue the example above) or else Jasnah would have found it, therefore Taravangian can't have known about it, is overlooking that Taravangian and his team of ardents might easily have culled the library themselves if they didn't want to risk other people following the same chain of logic.  Just because the information wasn't there when Jasnah went looking doesn't mean it wasn't there when Taravangian and company did.

[Djarskublar]

7 minutes ago, galendo said:

I feel the people who are saying that Taravangian couldn't have possibly read everything relevant are kind of missing the point.  Most of the conclusions the Diagram makes wouldn't necessarily require some deep and esoteric knowledge of the nature of the Cosmere.  Let's take the Honorblades, for example.  The thought process might have gone something like:

Where are the Honorblades? --> They are highly Invested. --> Investiture interferes with other Investiture. --> The highstorms are highly Invested. --> The highstorms do not hit Shinovar. --> There are also no spren in Shinovar.
Therefore, the Honorblades must be in Shinovar.

The above process requires some basic familiarity with a theory of Investiture, but it's not the only way to reach the same conclusion:

Where are the Honorblades --> They are powerful weapons of war. --> Powerful weapons would be used, were a country at war. --> The Shin are the only people never at war.
Therefore, if they are not lost, the Honorblades must be in Shinovar.

Also, the argument that just because the library didn't have information about Topic X (let's say Investiture, to continue the example above) or else Jasnah would have found it, therefore Taravangian can't have known about it, is overlooking that Taravangian and his team of ardents might easily have culled the library themselves if they didn't want to risk other people following the same chain of logic.  Just because the information wasn't there when Jasnah went looking doesn't mean it wasn't there when Taravangian and company did.

Emphasis added. There are a couple major flaws with your reasoning. First off, how would he even know about the Honorblades in the first place? He may know some legend from the Vorin religion... that felt a pretty strong influence from the Heirocracy. There is no way he knew what the Honorblades actually do. That will not be in any book. For all he knew they were just regular Blades held by special 'people.'

Second, that first explanation needs a serious logic slap. Honorblades Invested? sure. Investiture interference? sure. Highstorms Invested? sure. Highstorms don't hit Shinovar? yeah... they hit a mountain chain and lose their force. And the investiture fueling their travel starts to run down. No spren in Shinovar? ummm... yeah there are. The flora and fauna are different, but spren are a planetary thing. The second explanation makes more sense. The shin do have soldiers though. Not that that really affects your point.

My point is that if there is even one thing the Diagram explains/predicts that can't be explained by sheer intelligence extrapolating from prior knowledge, then we have proof that something else is going on. Hence the added emphasis in your quote. I submit his knowledge of the Everstorm as one of these things. I will admit that the Death Rattles may have provided that knowledge. I don't think that is likely since the Rattles we saw tend to focus on a named character's future or past or the desolation itself. There probably isn't much in there about the LIsteners that differs greatly from the kinds of things that Jasnah found in the library. I do not think that he could have figured out the Listeners with any accuracy without a lot more knowledge of the cosmere/SR/Investiture than he could have had. WIth a peek into the SR and enough intelligence to understand it, he could have figured out the Listeners.

I think that Occam's Razor doesn't really apply to any argument here. That kind of deduction from sheer intelligence gets destroyed by the Razor in my mind, but so does just about any other explanation to some degree. I just think that my explanation makes far more sense, and is much more likely.

[galendo]

56 minutes ago, Djarskublar said:

Emphasis added. There are a couple major flaws with your reasoning. First off, how would he even know about the Honorblades in the first place? He may know some legend from the Vorin religion... that felt a pretty strong influence from the Heirocracy. There is no way he knew what the Honorblades actually do. That will not be in any book. For all he knew they were just regular Blades held by special 'people.'

Not know about the Honorblades?  We're talking about the supernatural weapons wielded by the near-mythological figures of the dominant world religion.  We're not talking obscure trivia here.  I'd think a reasonably educated individual would know this.  For a real-world example, it'd be like asking about Zeus' favored weapon.  Maybe a lot of people don't know, but a lot of other people, even those not having specifically studied Greek mythology, would be able to come up with the lightning bolt.

Also, from what I remember, the fallout from the Heirocracy was anti-Radiant, not anti-Herald.  I don't think they'd have messed with the Heralds' legends too much.

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Second, that first explanation needs a serious logic slap. Honorblades Invested? sure. Investiture interference? sure. Highstorms Invested? sure. Highstorms don't hit Shinovar? yeah... they hit a mountain chain and lose their force. And the investiture fueling their travel starts to run down. No spren in Shinovar? ummm... yeah there are. The flora and fauna are different, but spren are a planetary thing. The second explanation makes more sense. The shin do have soldiers though. Not that that really affects your point.

I'm not sure that there are spren in Shinovar.  From Rysn's interlude in WoK: "The entire landscape had an eerie feel to it, as if it were dead.  Nothing moved.  With a start, Rysn realized she couldn't seen any spren.  Not a one.  No windspren, no lifespren, nothing."

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My point is that if there is even one thing the Diagram explains/predicts that can't be explained by sheer intelligence extrapolating from prior knowledge, then we have proof that something else is going on. Hence the added emphasis in your quote. I submit his knowledge of the Everstorm as one of these things. I will admit that the Death Rattles may have provided that knowledge. I don't think that is likely since the Rattles we saw tend to focus on a named character's future or past or the desolation itself. There probably isn't much in there about the LIsteners that differs greatly from the kinds of things that Jasnah found in the library. I do not think that he could have figured out the Listeners with any accuracy without a lot more knowledge of the cosmere/SR/Investiture than he could have had. WIth a peek into the SR and enough intelligence to understand it, he could have figured out the Listeners.

I think, from what WoB's I've read, that you're probably right that something else is going on.  (It makes me sad, because I actually prefer pure intelligence as an explanation, but that's neither here nor there.)  You might even be right about the explanation; I don't follow the Cosmere stuff that closely, haven't read SH, etc., so I'm not really qualified to comment on it.

I don't know that Taravangian's knowledge of the Everstorm supports your points, though.  For starters, I don't think we even have hard evidence that T. did foresee the Everstorm itself on the day of the Diagram (none of the Diagram quotes that I'm aware of ever reference it), but even if it did, he might well have heard about it, or thought he had, from Galivar's visions (remember Dalinar's last vision in WoK, and also it turns out his first, where Odium's storm sweeps away all of Alethkar).  As for Taravangian knowing about the Everstorm after the day of the Diagram, we know that the death rattles mention it multiple times, so he certainly learned of it then, if he didn't know before.

[Spoolofwhool]

This is, overall, a very interesting issue. I've thrown a few thoughts around, but I thought it would be best if I just write my comprehensive thoughts on the matter. I'll end by addressing several points raised previously, if they aren't raised in the body. 

As far as I'm aware there are two main theories on how Taravangian was able to draw the Diagram: 1. He was able to view the spiritual realm, and this allowed him glimpses of the future. 2. His intelligence was raised to such a high degree that he was able to logical or intuitively guess what steps should be taken and what would come based on knowledge he had beforehand. 

Disclaimer: I have not read Mistborn: Secret History, which seems to me from what I've read that it talks a bit about the other realms. As such, I will not discuss much information stemming from it. Also, I am in favor of the second theory, meaning this is not an impartial review. 

 

So to start. The main thing I've noticed is that, based on the knowledge at hand, both theories remain valid, The support for each theory is mainly circumstantial, with nothing which approaches much contradiction or flaw in either. What this means is that these theories are probably going to remain valid for awhile, with each holding onto supporters for awhile until new information is found or released, most likely in the form of Oathbringer. I don't think Brandon is going to say anything else regarding it considering the RAFOs he's dropped in the past. 

The first theory, is a simple one, and explains everything about him writing the Diagram. The main point is that during the day of the Diagram, Taravangian's mind extended into the Spiritual Realm, and this afforded him a look into the future, possibly just fragments, but enough for him to write the Diagram. The mechanics of this aren't well defined, but what I've seen said seems to suggest a change in investiture, which gives him that push to the spiritual realm. As @Evenstrom said, a similar crossing of a cognitive mind with the spiritual realm achieved similar effects to what Taravangian described going through, though I cannot confirm this either way. The issues, however, with this theory are also important. Most importantly, is how his mind reaches the spiritual realm. As I said, it was suggested that he gains extra investiture somehow, which gives him that boost. But what hasn't been clear is where this investiture comes from. While it has been suggested that the intelligence gain is due to increased investiture, which makes sense, and at the extreme intelligence he touches the spiritual realm, this fails to consider is the proportional decrease in empathy. This would likely be due to a specific loss of investiture, meaning that overall, his amount of investiture doesn't change. It has also been suggested that the intelligence/empathy shift has to do with him being more aligned towards one of the non-physical realms over the other, but since the suggestion put empathy as being in the spiritual realm, it also wouldn't work. While I feel like the thought that him changing investiture is a good one, I still think it requires a solid explanation of where from, and for what reason. While the obvious answer that it is coming from the Nightwatcher, this fall short for two reasons. First is still the question of what the extra investiture is used for, unless shifting empathy and intelligence require non-equal amounts of investiture. Secondly is a question of why the Nightwatcher would be funneling investiture to him at times, since none of the other boon/curse changes seem to require continuous adjustments by Nightwatcher. Overall, I do think this is a good theory, though I don't agree with it, and if we were going with "simple is best", it would be the best theory. 

The second theory, is a touch more complex, and require a number more of premises. This theory calls for Taravangian to have never actually seen the future. Instead, the Diagram was written based on logical calculations, and intuitive guesses he made which would give the best possibility for the civilization of Roshar to survive what was coming. During the day, his extreme intelligence allowed him to draw an unparalleled number of conclusions and educated guesses in a short time, as if he were tapping a zinc metalmind for a large amount of mental speed.  (Mistborn spoiler). All these guesses and calculations were founded on knowledge he had previously held before that Day, or quickly learned during that day as well. The well-noted issue about this theory, is the question of whether he held the knowledge necessary. The Diagram talked about the Heralds, Radiants, Listeners, and other details of time of the Desolation and just afterwards, details which would not be common. My, and other responses have been to point out that he possessed the largest library on Roshar, which clearly did contain some knowledge of the time of Desolations as Jasnah did find knowledge of voidbringers in it, enough to determine that the Parshendi were of them, which means that Taravangian could've determined the same thing with the same knowledge. While it is also a question of whether he would've had time to study and learn all this knowledge, I agree with the naysayers that he probably wouldn't have had the time. However, what he probably did have was a number of scholars and ardents who did the research for him, and presented him with detailed summaries of what they found. After all, he and Gavilar were engaged in the project previously, so he had probably already has a good start on research. Regarding flaws in this theory. The main issue is the number of conditions which would've had to have been fulfilled for him to have written the Diagram. He would've had to have had knowledge on Heralds, Shin, Listeners/Parshendi, Unmade, Radiants and population shift and mentality, that we know of, including knowledge that Talenel died in the Last Desolation and that the cycle of Desolations depends on Heralds withstanding torture in Damnation, or enough information to lead to that conclusion. A fair list, I admit, but not implausible. On the other hand, as far as we've seen of the Diagram, there's nothing which indicated things which were completely implausible to have previous knowledge of, such as the Everstorm, which he could've known of anyways. We don't know when the Diagram was written, but it was over a year before he became king of Jah Keved, while a Death Rattle foretelling the Everstorm was made 1229 days before it struck. Overall, as I stated before, I do think this is the better theory of the two despite its greater dependents, simply because it feels more right, and also because Taravangian himself didn't notice any knowledge contradictions that we know of. 

Hoping you stayed awake during that ramble. If anyone notices any contradictions or errors I made, please point them out. Also, if anyone has any additional explanations that I couldn't present, do notify me.

 

Other stuff:

21 hours ago, Evenstrom said:

Furthermore, we've actually seen that when Taravangian is smart normally, he actually gets worse at predicting the actions of other people. After all, he suggested a law that people under a certain IQ should commit suicide, and expected it to actually work. Something doesn't add up here.

I'll be honest, I don't see this logic. Consider first what we know Taravangian has managed to convince people to do. He has a secret hospital where the staff slowly murders sick and elderly. Yes, this is a different tier from actually convincing the general population that people with low IQs must die for the greater good of the population, but not that different. In addition, people have committed suicide and other actions for fanatical and/or religious reasons which are a lot more fantastical than the reason he wants. All he would've had to do was convince people that there was solid fanatical reason for doing so. Yes, unlikely from our view, but not impossible. 

21 hours ago, Evenstrom said:

But how, in Chapter 88, could he know exactly when the Everstorm would strike? And, of course, the epigraph from chapter 85. "But who is the wanderer, the wild piece, the one who makes no sense? I glimpse at his implications, and the world opens to me. I shy back. Impossible. Is it?"  This gives me the impression that more's going on here than simple guesswork, but that Taravangian was actually seeing something.

He knew when the Everstorm would strike from Deathrattles. One gave a prediction that it would arrive in 1000 days, though the actual time from the Death Rattle was 1229. I don't see hims saying that in Chapter 88. Are you referring to one of the interludes about him? As for the epigraph, he could've noticed deviations in population patterns and guessed that there was a joker moving around, more aware of what was going on and influencing matters. 

Edited September 3, 2016 by Spoolofwhool

[Torrieltar]

Nice post, @Spoolofwhool! Have an upvote. There are a few points here that I want to address, though.

First, my personal theory about how Taravangian saw into the Spiritual Realm is a lot simpler than the one about varying levels of investiture. I take the Nightwatcher's boon and curse at face value, Taravangian's fluctuates inversely to his compassion. I just think that there's some sort of threshold of intelligence beyond which the 'weight'(?) of someone's mind in the Cognitive Realm is enough that they begin to touch on the Spiritual Realm. There are probably any number of explanations for this that we really don't know enough about Realmatics to nail down.

Second, I agree that any doubts I have about whether Taravangian had enough information going into the making of the Diagram to come to the conclusions that he did are far from conclusive. You raise some good points here.

Third:

2 hours ago, Spoolofwhool said:

I'll be honest, I don't see this logic. Consider first what we know Taravangian has managed to convince people to do. He has a secret hospital where the staff slowly murders sick and elderly. Yes, this is a different tier from actually convincing the general population that people with low IQs must die for the greater good of the population, but not that different. In addition, people have committed suicide and other actions for fanatical and/or religious reasons which are a lot more fantastical than the reason he wants. All he would've had to do was convince people that there was solid fanatical reason for doing so. Yes, unlikely from our view, but not impossible. 

Hope you don't mind reading an essay of my own...

I would argue that, yes, it is that different. The difference between cult and national psychology is huge. The only times that they approach one another is when a nation is placed under a huge amount of pressure over the course of years, strong enough to unite almost everyone in a backlash against it, or through literally generations of cultural conditioning, neither of which was the case in Kharbranth at the time. Even then, in most cases, people wouldn't actually voluntarily commit suicide because you decided they weren't intelligent enough--you would have to hunt them down and kill them. Suicide cults are based almost entirely on personal charisma, which breaks down on a national scale, even for a city-state. They also depend on finding a few vulnerable members on society and separating them, whereas Taravangian would have to convince literally everyone.

It's easy to imagine a nation of faceless sheeple being swayed to listen to Taravangian's arguments, but what if we imagine actual people? Would Taravangian be able to convince people like Gaz, Lopen, Bluth, Tvlakv, Moash, Yalb, and Elhokar to commit suicide through rational argument? None of them are particularly noted for their intelligence, and I can't imagine a single one of them being swayed under normal circumstances.

Now, let's look a bit more into the specific obstacles that Taravangian would face. It's already an uphill battle, since despite Taravangian's cult following, he's largely seen as a weak, stupid king even within his nation and isn't taken seriously. He would have to reveal himself as super intelligent, but then some would distrust him. After all, this is a pretty superstitious society and he just proclaimed that his level of intelligence fluctuates each day, and maybe even explained the involvement of the Nightwatcher. Beyond that, it would also rally a lot of the upper class who mostly leave him alone because of his apparent stupidity against him.

Even if he had the ability to convince the masses that suicide was in their best interests, he would be opposed by a lot of already entrenched factions, who might see this terrible idea of his as either inflammatory enough to cause them to rise up against him or an opportunity to turn opinion against him and score political points, maybe even seizing power from him. Think how much opposition Dalinar received to his strategies of working together with the highprinces to end the war on the Shattered Plains, and scale that up quite a bit. The ardentia especially would almost certainly condemn this kind of decision. From there, Kharbranth's diplomatic relationship with the other Vorin nations would be strained immensely, pressuring Taravangian to either retract his decree or be left alone as a tiny city-state with no military and no allies. And now any plans Taravangian might have had with the Diagram go kaput.

I mean, it's theoretically possible that he could pull it off, but it would need to be the single thing he was working toward for years and years, totally setting aside any Diagram-related goals, with all the influence and political subtlety he could muster, and, of course, no guiding hand from the Diagram. Even then, the consequences would be severe.

But I've been saying all of this without getting to the crux of the issue. Taravangian wasn't thinking about years of subtle political and psychological maneuvering to pull this off. He was so incredibly oriented towards intelligence and logic, without any empathy whatsoever, that he literally thought that he could just enact the law day and that most people would think it over, say to themselves, "Yeah, that makes sense," and commit suicide. It didn't occur to him that they could come to another conclusion as soon as he made the case to them in a rational and logical fashion. There was no idea of using fanaticism or cult psychology at all. That's the whole point of Taravangian not being able to make decisions on law on days when he's super smart--because it's monumentally stupid, and he knows it.

Quote

Interestingly, he had decided that when he was too brilliant, he was also not allowed to change policy. He'd made this decision after a day of genius where he'd thought to fix all of Kharbranth's problems with a series of very rational edicts--such as requiring people to take an intelligence test of his own devising before being allowed to breed.

...

"I was smart on that day," he said. Smart enough that Mrall had declared he needed to be locked in the palace, lest he reveal his nature. He'd been convinced that if he could just explain his condition to the city, they would all listen to reason and let him control their lives perfectly. He'd drafted a law requiring that all people of less than average intellect be required to commit suicide for the good of the city. It had seemed reasonable. He had considered they might resist, but thought that the brilliance of the argument would sway them.

Compare this with advice from the Diagram.

Quote

"Pali's mind," Adrotagia said, watching them rise. "I don't believe it."

The soldiers sat separated in groups by banner, being tended to by Taravangian's surgeons, water-bearers, and comforters. Wounded and unwounded alike, any who could stand rose for the king of Kharbranth and cheered him.

"The Diagram said it would happen," Taravangian said.

...

He had ordered the execution of their king, along with specific highprinces the Diagram indicated. In doing so, he had pushed the various factions into war with one another. He had brought this kingdom to its knees.

Now they cheered him for it. He forced himself to stop with one of the groups, asking after their health, seeing if there was anything he could do for them. It was important to be seen by the people as a compassionate man. The Diagram explained this in a casual sterility, as if compassion were something one could measure in a cup next to a pint of blood.

There's still the same utter lack of empathy in the Diagram, but suddenly Taravangian understands how people work again? It doesn't add up to me.

Lastly:

2 hours ago, Spoolofwhool said:

He knew when the Everstorm would strike from Deathrattles. One gave a prediction that it would arrive in 1000 days, though the actual time from the Death Rattle was 1229. I don't see hims saying that in Chapter 88.

The epigraph for Chapter 88 is the list for the dates of all of the Highstorms up until the coming of the Everstorm. It's not definitive proof that he knew the Everstorm specifically was coming, by any means, but why would he end the sequence there if he didn't? Also, note that the epigraph was actually a part of the diagram, so he had it written long before they got that particular Death Rattle.

[Darkness]

Couple of things here... I thought there was a WoB on the inverse relationship Taravangian has between the Cognitive and Spiritual Realms, but this is the closest I was able to find:

 

ZAS678

And my other question is about Taravangian. It becomes clear that when he's smart, he's less compassionate, and when he's dumb, he's more compassionate.

BRANDON SANDERSON (PARAPHRASED)

Yeah, he mentions that in his interlude.

ZAS678

Is that intentional, or is that just how you believe intelligence works?

BRANDON SANDERSON (PARAPHARASED)

No, that's intentional. There's plenty of really smart people who are also compassionate, and dumb people who aren't.

ZAS678

So when Taravangian is smart, his Cognitive aspect is stronger. So when he’s dumb, is his Spiritual aspect stronger?

BRANDON SANDERSON

*grins and pulls out a RAFO card* 

Does anyone know of a more definite quote on this? Or is that all we've got? The other point is

 

BLIGHTSONG

How much did Super Mind Taravangian know about the Cosmere as a whole, roughly, rough estimate.

BRANDON SANDERSON

He had a little bit of knowledge. Not as much as... not as much conscious knowledge.

BLIGHTSONG

Did he guess about the three realms?

BRANDON SANDERSON

Yes, he knew about the three realms. He didn't have to guess on that, he had read philosophy and things, that knowledge is there on Roshar.

I could see this going either way. One, 'conscious knowledge'... that is a highly suspect term. It could mean he connected (pun intended) with the realms, but isn't cognizant (pun fully intended again :P) of that connection. Two, the relevant knowledge exists on Roshar, and it's implied he had read enough to know about the 3 realms.

... ...

So I went back and actually read spoolofwhool's novella

I won't belabour the points too much other than to say I like your thinking. I do however believe the idea that Mr. T fluctuates directly proportionally between cognitive and spiritual each day. The issue of 'how did he understand (empathize with) people during the brilliant day?' is something of a non-issue for me. I tend to believe that if he was as intelligent that day as he made himself out to be, then he would logically be able to predict people's (and much more believably, nations') reactions to his actions.

 

if you've read the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov, this is similar to psychohistory... right up to and including the 'pruning' and aberrations like the Mule (*cough Hoid cough*) 

I used to hope that his day of 'brilliance' was actually a day of supreme compassion... but there is simply too much evidence to the opposite (like inventing languages and codes on the spot to conserve space). I do still cling to the idea that the 'capacity to save the world' is dependant on his compassion more than his intelligence. He may have needed that one brilliant day, but I think he will utterly fail if he concentrates solely on intelligence and ignores empathy. Makes me wonder why he didn't warn himself about that in the diagram...

 

 

Edited September 3, 2016 by Darkness
Trying to fix spoiler formatting... I give up... sorry

[Argel]

2 hours ago, Darkness said:

I could see this going either way. One, 'conscious knowledge'... that is a highly suspect term. It could mean he connected (pun intended) with the realms, but isn't cognizant (pun fully intended again :P) of that connection. Two, the relevant knowledge exists on Roshar, and it's implied he had read enough to know about the 3 realms.

It's not implied. Brandon said Taravangian knew about the three realms. The "not as much conscious knowledge" referred to the Cosmere as a whole.

And there is nothing suspect about "not as much conscious knowledge" -- it implies enough information to use intuition. Much like Mikhail Tal's knight sacrifice in the quote I posted up above.. I posted that in this thread because it's a real world example of having enough knowledge to use intuition to make good choices, something that continues to be underestimated or outright overlooked in this thread.

It's also worth keeping in mind that Brandon is speaking these answers off the cuff. If he could spend time writing the answers they would often be phrased better, so it's important to be careful not to read too much into the phrasing.

Edited September 3, 2016 by Argel

[Darkness]

1 hour ago, Argel said:

It's not implied. Brandon said Taravangian knew about the three realms. The "not as much conscious knowledge" referred to the Cosmere as a whole.

And there is nothing suspect about "not as much conscious knowledge" -- it implies enough information to use intuition. Much like Mikhail Tal's knight sacrifice in the quote I posted up above.. I posted that in this thread because it's a real world example of having enough knowledge to use intuition to make good choices, something that continues to be underestimated or outright overlooked in this thread.

It's also worth keeping in mind that Brandon is speaking these answers off the cuff. If he could spend time writing the answers they would often be phrased better, so it's important to be careful not to read too much into the phrasing.

I actually loved your anecdote. As a chess player I found it very apt and hilarious. Also depressingly true to what I often experience while playing chess...

Sorry, looking at my writing, it wasn't very clear. I meant to say that the implication was that Taravangian had read about the 3 realms. It was stated that he knew about them, yes, but I don't think I would say that the quote 100% means he got that knowledge from a book. It's splitting hairs I know, and I apologize for that, but in my defence Brandon is far better at hair splitting and wiggling than I am . After all, he is still a master wordsmith. Which leads me to point 2:

Brandon is speaking these answers off the cuff. I agree with your point, and looking at the answer as a whole you are probably, almost certainly, right that the exact phrasing in this specific case isn't too important. That said, I'm sure we've both seen numerous times when Brandon has used clever wording to misdirect (one signing I remember he even told the audience that he had cleverly avoided answering one of the questions in a meaningful way, even though they thought they had gotten something from it). So while I do agree, I am very cautious in reading into, or assuming anything beyond the exact words that Brandon has said.

Also, it's 3am where I am, and I'm very sick, so it's very likely that I'm going regret this post and apologize again when I'm more lucid  I'm getting off the shard now haha

[Spoolofwhool]

7 hours ago, Evenstrom said:

Third:

Hope you don't mind reading an essay of my own...

But I've been saying all of this without getting to the crux of the issue. Taravangian wasn't thinking about years of subtle political and psychological maneuvering to pull this off. He was so incredibly oriented towards intelligence and logic, without any empathy whatsoever, that he literally thought that he could just enact the law day and that most people would think it over, say to themselves, "Yeah, that makes sense," and commit suicide. It didn't occur to him that they could come to another conclusion as soon as he made the case to them in a rational and logical fashion. There was no idea of using fanaticism or cult psychology at all. That's the whole point of Taravangian not being able to make decisions on law on days when he's super smart--because it's monumentally stupid, and he knows it.

Compare this with advice from the Diagram.

There's still the same utter lack of empathy in the Diagram, but suddenly Taravangian understands how people work again? It doesn't add up to me.

Lastly:

The epigraph for Chapter 88 is the list for the dates of all of the Highstorms up until the coming of the Everstorm. It's not definitive proof that he knew the Everstorm specifically was coming, by any means, but why would he end the sequence there if he didn't? Also, note that the epigraph was actually a part of the diagram, so he had it written long before they got that particular Death Rattle.

Fair point about him trying to logically convince people. I don't have my book of WoR so I couldn't remember exactly how he described himself convincing them. However, still in counter to your premise, I still don't think that proves anything about his ability to predict people in a large scale. The problem he made with his law, is that he was assuming that everyone would be smart enough to understand the logic of his argument, which nearly no one would've been. In addition, more problems occur when you directly influence events and are open about it. People are resistant to manipulation, and don't usually like being told what to do. The difference however, between that case and the one with Jah Keved, is that firstly, it didn't rely on people understanding an explanation, it simply required the, to react as they did. Secondly, there was no obvious manipulation. Yes, you could probably tell that a chain of assassinations is some sort of manipulation, but when performed more subtedly and with no one directly telling them how they should act in response to it, they're far more likely to follow usual mob mentality processes.

Lastly, do you know when the Diagram was made? As far as I can tell, there is a period between where the Diagram could've been written after that Death Rattle occurred. In any case, I do admit that that is a pretty major flaw. Even taking that Death Rattle into consideration, there is enough of a margin that makes those highstorm dates suspect, unless he figured that the Everstorm would be coming by the new year and just listed the last ten highstorms of the previous year, 1173.

Good points overall. I didn't address the one about moving from cognitive into spiritual since I really don't have enough information to say either way.

Edited September 3, 2016 by Spoolofwhool

[Torrieltar]

2 hours ago, Spoolofwhool said:

Lastly, do you know when the Diagram was made?

Not exactly. Here are the only quotes I found about it.

Quote

What he had asked her to figure out, however, was when he could expect another day like the one during which he'd created the Diagram. It had been years now since that day of transcendent mastery.

Quote

In his clarity of genius, the sentences had looked easy to separate, but it had taken his scholars years to piece together what this said.

It's not quite as cut and dry as I remembered, but 'years' to me implies at least three. Since a year on Roshar is 500 days, that would be put it at at least 1500 days before the Everstorm.

[Argel]

I just posted about the timeframe for the Diagram in one of these threads -- looks like one of the others since I do not see it here.

Anyway, we know The Diagram was created after Gavilar's assassination from a WoB, and given that that day occurred years before that 500 day chart as you mention, the Diagram was probably created within three years of Gavilars assassination. It could be later than that, but the whole "years" reference makes less and less sense the closer we get to that 500 day chart. 

If those "years" are before the 500 day chart, then maybe within two years of Gavilar's assassination. Either way, we have an rough idea of when it was created.

As a reminder (since this post has a bunch of timeline stuff in it), the Death Rattles occurred around the time Gavilar started investigating the Shattered Plains, which was apparently roughly 7 years ago (that quote is from TWoK, so a bit more than 7 from the end of WoR).

 

The part about Taravangian understanding humans on the day The Diagram was created is interesting. One counter to that is that figuring out what the cutthroat rules would do does not likely require any empathy. We saw what happened in Jah Keved.

 

6 hours ago, Darkness said:

Also, it's 3am where I am, and I'm very sick, so it's very likely that I'm going regret this post and apologize again when I'm more lucid  I'm getting off the shard now haha

Rest up and I hope you feel better!!!

 

 

Edited September 3, 2016 by Argel