Anniversary Game: In the Re-Wake of the Koloss

[Seonid he/him]

I...don't know what to say. RIP Wilson. And Winter Cloud.

 

There's not a lot of analysis I can squeeze out of that night. Wilson's been a high-profile target for a while now. I guess she finally lost the game of I Know You Know I Know with the Spiked. I don't know why Winter Cloud died. The write-up indicates the Village Coinshot, but I hadn't noticed any suspicion in the thread of her. Was there any in any of the PM's?

 

Oh, and it also looks like Wilson was the Lurcher she claimed to be in contact with. That stinks that we're down that role. I don't have a high hope that we have another one.

 

But I doubt that there's a lot of fruit down that line of reasoning. I think that all I've got right now is to formalize my worries from last night. Hero, you have been doing a lot of accusations without posting your reasons lately. You claim that it is so that the Spiked don't know what charges to defend themselves from, but the fact of the matter is that we learn more from the defense than we do from baseless accusations. Either make your suspicions public, or my vote stays on you this cycle.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Let's try joe

 

Let's try Peng. Care to explain why you've just placed a vote on someone with no reasoning behind it? You then messaged me, saying 'I think I'm on to something, so vote with me today and I'll vote with you tomorrow'. Still no reasoning. So why exactly do you think you're on to something with Joe? No marks for partial answers!

Edited January 15, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Claincy he/him]

This is going very badly. For anyone who hasn't kept count we've now lost 10 villagers without hitting a single spiked. Amongst that we've lost a seeker, mistborn and a lurcher, and we don't have Wilson anymore.

 

Wilson did make certain that in case she died all of her information wouldn't be lost. So she told me and one other almost everything. I won't say who the other is in case the spiked don't know, said person can reveal themselves if they choose but it isn't my place to do so. Not unless I have reason to suspect them and I'm near certain they are a villager.

 

Wilson's main suspicions at the time of her death were Winter, Joe, Peng, and Newan if Winter was innocent. Personally I think Peng is a bit more suspicious than Joe particularly because of his frequently poorly explained actions and lack of participation in the discussion (not that Joe's been much better). Peng, we desperately need the detail and the discussion to pick out the spiked (and we need more in the thread, looking at you too Hero. I'm pretty sure you're not spiked, but you can do better than this), please help the discussion. Aside from poor input in the thread what I've heard of Peng in PMs is rather odd behaviour, not necessarily spiked but not something you'd generally expect from a villager.

[Unodus he/him]

Great, not only did my vote not count- but it was also wrong :/ [sorry, Wilson.... ;-;]

 

I think I might wait a while before placing a vote, simply because I have no idea who to vote for....

 

In the meantime, I'm going to keep going at this tineye message....

 

One thing I need to ask, though- How many of us "actives" are left...? .3.;

I'm slightly concerned because if the spiked outnumber us, it might not even matter if we know who did it- because there are at least 5 or 6 spiked among us... And with the vote leverage, we might not have anyone left who can do anything... (We've already lost a mistborn, coinshot and lurcher). Since we can only assume inactives won't vote unless prompted- we only have a handful of people left to vote... If we can't control the lynch or affect the night cycles, then we've already lost- right?

Edited January 15, 2015 by Unodus

[Seonid he/him]

We haven't lost the Coinshot yet, Unodus, so we can still affect the night cycle. It's the Seeker we've lost.

 

As far as active players go, by my count we have 18 players left total. Of those, 4 are completely or nearly completely inactive - Macen, Jasnah, dom, and Newan (who comes on long enough to apologize for his inactivity - so he might be active eventually). 5 or 6 of the 14 remaining are likely Spiked, so they don't control the vote yet. It's getting down to the wire, but we're not out of the fight yet.

 

Especially with a Coinshot. 

[Peng the Just he/him]

I believe I said that it was mostly a provoke vote for Joe. I'm trying to force him into the open to explain himself. That, and something about him just feels off. I feel like he's trying too hard to blend in. Clancy, how is my PM behavior suspicions? You added me too a PM with six other people, and all I said is that I won't participate because i don't trust PMs that large.

Correction:the PM had five participants. But, still.

Edited January 15, 2015 by jasonpenguin

[Wyrmhero he/him]

I believe I said that it was mostly a provoke vote for Joe. I'm trying to force him into the open to explain himself. That, and something about him just feels off. I feel like he's trying too hard to blend in.

 

But what would you like him to explain about what he's done, exactly?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I haven't been doing much of anything really. I've been in active contact with Wilson, and am still catching up on Notes and rereading the whole game. I'm not trying to blend in at all, it's just a happy side effect of not knowing enough.

 

I always thought wilson knew I was innocent.

[Peng the Just he/him]

But what would you like him to explain about what he's done, exactly?

Most recently, he hopped on the 'lynch ash' bandwagon.

Also, joe, in regards to your last post, how would wilson 'know' you were innocent? She wasn't a seeker. She never really voiced suspicion against you, true, but it seems convinent that you claim to be in the confidences of a dead woman.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Right, since we have a little bit of a discussion going on there, then I will remove my vote from Peng.

 

I would like to hear from Newan. You've posted a few times, but are you following the game at all?

[Herowannabe he/him]

But I doubt that there's a lot of fruit down that line of reasoning. I think that all I've got right now is to formalize my worries from last night. Hero, you have been doing a lot of accusations without posting your reasons lately. You claim that it is so that the Spiked don't know what charges to defend themselves from, but the fact of the matter is that we learn more from the defense than we do from baseless accusations. Either make your suspicions public, or my vote stays on you this cycle.

 

As I said earlier, I've been making accusations without voicing my reasons because I've been trying to get more information out of the accused, hoping to catch the spiked off guard. If I throw out a vote for a spiked member, but don't say why, hopefully it will make them nervous enough to make a mistake. How certain am I about my vote? Why do I suspect that person is spiked? Did they let something slip?

 

Now, I realize not everyone will agree with that tactic. That's fine, I don't blame. So here is why I voted for Peng yesterday: The main reason is that (by my rough recollection) he has voted nearly if not every cycle, but has posted very very little. Often his votes have been adding on bandwagons or were mistakes, such as his vote today for Wintercloud- who is already dead. This has made it difficult to get any read on him and his motivations. So I voted for him to prompt him to respond, to try to get some more discussion out of him (and of course, to see what sort of response I could prompt from him and from other people if he does happen to be spiked). Lately, he's been a little more active, so I'm going to ease off of him.

 

Today, I'm voting for Newan. I have it on good authority (from one of the dead villagers before they died) that Newan claimed to be a Smoker in at least one PM. This may or not be true. However, Satrams and Cleo were both village smokers. It's possible that we have 3 good smokers, but I doubt it. Also, I suspect that this is the reason why Wilson told Claincy to suspect Newan if Cleo was innocent.

 

EDIT: And I see that my vote was ninja'd by Wyrm while I was typing this

Edited January 15, 2015 by Herowannabe

[Lord Pifferdoo he/him]

That secret Tineye message, though....

I'm voting for Wyrm.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Lord Pifferdoo

[Unodus he/him]

Wait, have you decoded it...? .o.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Peng, sorry, but you're my best guess at a Spiked now. You've been active enough to get involved, but not enough to say much and so far, you've slid by in that range. I have to agree with Wyrm on this one.

[Peng the Just he/him]

As I said earlier, I've been making accusations without voicing my reasons because I've been trying to get more information out of the accused, hoping to catch the spiked off guard. If I throw out a vote for a spiked member, but don't say why, hopefully it will make them nervous enough to make a mistake. How certain am I about my vote? Why do I suspect that person is spiked? Did they let something slip?

 

Now, I realize not everyone will agree with that tactic. That's fine, I don't blame. So here is why I voted for Peng yesterday: The main reason is that (by my rough recollection) he has voted nearly if not every cycle, but has posted very very little. Often his votes have been adding on bandwagons or were mistakes, such as his vote today for Wintercloud- who is already dead. This has made it difficult to get any read on him and his motivations. So I voted for him to prompt him to respond, to try to get some more discussion out of him (and of course, to see what sort of response I could prompt from him and from other people if he does happen to be spiked). Lately, he's been a little more active, so I'm going to ease off of him.

 

Today, I'm voting for Newan. I have it on good authority (from one of the dead villagers before they died) that Newan claimed to be a Smoker in at least one PM. This may or not be true. However, Satrams and Cleo were both village smokers. It's possible that we have 3 good smokers, but I doubt it. Also, I suspect that this is the reason why Wilson told Claincy to suspect Newan if Cleo was innocent.

 

EDIT: And I see that my vote was ninja'd by Wyrm while I was typing this

Couple things.

1 I haven't voted on a bandwagon this game. Please check your facts.

2 my vote for winter came because I didn't realize her game name (Cleo) referred to her as it was fairly dissimilar from her username.

3 who, precisely, told you this about Newan? Did they tell anyone else? I'm asking because if this claim is true, I'm likely to change my vote.

4 it seems a little risky posting someone's claimed role in thread where the spiked can see. If he is a villager AND you're a villager, there's a decent chance you just signed his death warrant. You don't need to take in action on this, I just wanted to comment that it seemed like a risky move.

[Seonid he/him]

Thanks, Hero. I still disagree with your method, but your reasons for voting for him are good enough to satisfy me.

 

I'll get around to voting later in the cycle, probably. There's just so much to consider about everyone's possible allegiances. I may post another large analysis at the end of the cycle, depending on if I can work something out.

[Newan he/him]

Right, since we have a little bit of a discussion going on there, then I will remove my vote from Peng.

 

I would like to hear from Newan. You've posted a few times, but are you following the game at all?

 

I am following the game, but I haven't been able to really dig into things.  I'm still in the middle of a job search (Barnes and Noble said they would call me to set up an interview!) so I haven't been able to devote very much time to this game.  I'm sorry about that.  I really want to be active.  I'll be back before the end of the game, but until then I'll be skimming the posts and trying to keep up with what's happening.  

 

Today, I'm voting for Newan. I have it on good authority (from one of the dead villagers before they died) that Newan claimed to be a Smoker in at least one PM. This may or not be true. However, Satrams and Cleo were both village smokers. It's possible that we have 3 good smokers, but I doubt it. Also, I suspect that this is the reason why Wilson told Claincy to suspect Newan if Cleo was innocent.

 

EDIT: And I see that my vote was ninja'd by Wyrm while I was typing this

 

This is just Meta's trolling.  I can't really offer any proof, because if we still have a seeker, I doubt you would waste your time seeking somebody who is pretty much inactive, who has claimed to be a smoker.  

 

Here's the best I can do:  If I were a spiked smoker, I would be keeping my coppercloud on at all times.  However, I turned my coppercloud off last night, before I knew I would be the subject of any speculation.  I've been doing that every night (except when I've forgotten) on the off-chance I was seeked, or just in case I voted and somebody wanted to use emotional manipulation.  I'd rather get the information that I have been manipulated than have my vote go through.  My meager actions have been for the sake of more information.  And the spiked don't want people to have more information.  

 

If there is an emotional allomancer who doesn't have anything better to do with their powers, go ahead and sooth my vote, and see for yourself that my coppercloud is off.  I'm voting for Hero because he doesn't have any other votes on him right now.  Also, why would he choose to vote for the barely active smoker who hasn't been manipulating discussions?  I know there were two other village smokers, but remember when Meta said this: "Having more players just means that I can have even more fun with the roles!"

 

 

I'm also interested in finding out who told everyone my role.  I told two people.  Somehow, Wilson, Claincy, some dead villager, and Herowannabe all have been told since.  What's the deal?  

[Peng the Just he/him]

Oooh. The plot thinkens. I, too would be VERY interested to see that chain of information. If you don't mind my asking, who did you tell?

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Was it Wilson who told you?

[Newan he/him]

I told Joe and Mail.  Until Wilson PMed me last night, I thought they were the only ones who knew. 

[Peng the Just he/him]

Fantastic! They're both still alive, which means we should be able to track it down. (Assuming, for now, you're telling the truth)

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'll just tell you what I can. I told Wilson, since i(and I was right) was pretty certain in her alignment. She then told Claincy, and Hero. Anyone else who knows didn't come from me.

[Peng the Just he/him]

Ok. That makes sense. I'll figure out what I want to do with my vote closer to the end of the cycle.

[Claincy he/him]

Clancy, how is my PM behavior suspicions? You added me too a PM with six other people, and all I said is that I won't participate because i don't trust PMs that large.

Correction:the PM had five participants. But, still.

I'm not talking about that. I think that was a fair enough decision

I was referring to what I have been told about how you acted in PMs that I wasn't in. It's second hand information so I take it with a grain of salt, but hearing that you've been overly forceful in trying to enter trust alliances without giving much in the way of reasoning or discussion isn't exactly promising.

I apologize if my phrasing was unclear.

 

Most recently, he hopped on the 'lynch ash' bandwagon.

Also, joe, in regards to your last post, how would wilson 'know' you were innocent? She wasn't a seeker. She never really voiced suspicion against you, true, but it seems convinent that you claim to be in the confidences of a dead woman.

 

I always thought wilson knew I was innocent.

Wilson didn't think you were spiked through most of the game, but she started to suspect in the last couple of cycles.

 

A important part of the suspicion against both of you is that Wilson, I and at least some other players think that there is almost certainly at least 1 highly experienced spiked in the game. Of the remaining experienced players you two are some of the most suspicious and compared to most of the others we didn't and don't have as much reason to trust you or suspect that you're innocent.

 

Today, I'm voting for Newan. I have it on good authority (from one of the dead villagers before they died) that Newan claimed to be a Smoker in at least one PM. This may or not be true. However, Satrams and Cleo were both village smokers. It's possible that we have 3 good smokers, but I doubt it. Also, I suspect that this is the reason why Wilson told Claincy to suspect Newan if Cleo was innocent.

 

EDIT: And I see that my vote was ninja'd by Wyrm while I was typing this

Wilson and I had been keeping an eye on the number of smokers from around the time of Satram's death as at that point we already "knew" that Winter and Newan had claimed to be smokers, and 3 village smokers seemed unlikely. We got sidetracked for a while by other suspicions but came back to this point last cycle when other thoughts increased the suspicion on Winter. Wilson and I both suspected that one of the claimed smokers was spiked, though we thought it was more likely to be Winter, as Winter knew from early in the game that Wilson was a lurcher. Obviously, we were wrong on that count.

 

 

I'll just tell you what I can. I told Wilson, since i(and I was right) was pretty certain in her alignment. She then told Claincy, and Hero. Anyone else who knows didn't come from me.

I don't know of anyone else being told, though it is possible.

[Herowannabe he/him]

 

 

If there is an emotional allomancer who doesn't have anything better to do with their powers, go ahead and sooth my vote, and see for yourself that my coppercloud is off.  I'm voting for Hero because he doesn't have any other votes on him right now.  Also, why would he choose to vote for the barely active smoker who hasn't been manipulating discussions?  I know there were two other village smokers, but remember when Meta said this: "Having more players just means that I can have even more fun with the roles!"

Having your coppercloud off isn't any proof that you're a villager and not a spiked, it just means that your coppercloud is off.

 

As for why I'm voting for you, I'm playing the odds. Out of 3 smokers, odds are one of them is spiked. Yes it's possible that all are clean and that there are 0 or 1 spiked smokers, but not likely. So far, as best as we can tell there have been 1-2 of each role. Assuming you are a Smoker, this would be the first confirmation that we have of a role had by at least 3 players.

 

Again, with Meta involved it's certainly possible that there are 3 clean smokers (see QF2, when Meta made everybody and their dog a gunner/thug), but it's still likely that the Spiked have a smoker, and you're the only (proclaimed) smoker who isn't dead and innocent. Sorry.