Stone shamans always watching

Oudeis · December 11, 2014

Anyways, what if the Stone Shamans use the the truthwatcher blade to find it? The surge of illumination could allow them to track where it is.

How?

EDIT: Moogle, you beat me to the point I was gonna make. I am fascinated in the differences between Surge and modern fabrials. I frankly assume we'll get some big revelation saying that the Surge Fabrials operate on entirely different principles than modern Fabrials.

Minor Mistborn spoilers.

Like how atium was thought simply a very good metal at first, but we now know it's so much more.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Ooklalhoo'Elin

Patrick Star · December 11, 2014

How?

Truthwatching? Renarin was able to count down to the everstorm with to-the-second accuracy. Why couldn't a Stone Shaman with more experience use it to see where the blade would end up once it was taken from Szeth?

Oudeis · December 11, 2014

We know next to nothing about how Renarin foresaw the Everstorm. Assuming it had anything to do with his Surgebinding is premature, at best. No one else had any real trouble controlling their powers. Trouble accessing them? Yes. Controlling them? No. Why, after weeks and weeks of practice, would Renarin still be unable to control his "sight"? Also, he doesn't seem to visibly Invest the one time we see him doing it. Nor do we have any indication that Ym is able to see what is to come, which would have been terribly useful to help him avoid being killed by Nale.

Even if you were right, Renarin doesn't see the far-away present, he sees the nearby future. If the Stone Shamans were using future sight to know where Szeth would die in advance of his death, wouldn't they have sent someone with the Skybreaker sword to fly through the storm and catch the Blade before Kaladin could? Or, if Skybreaker is the one they don't have, two or three Shamans with Blades to get it back from Kaladin the next day? For that matter, if they can see the future and know Szeth was going to die to a Radiant, why did they declare him Truthless for claiming the Radiants existed?

hoser · December 12, 2014

The larger point about the limited types of Radiant Fabrials may or may not be true. It's hard to say when we've seen so few.

Every fabrial we see from the old days is a variation on a Surge, whereas the newer fabrials with captured spren seem capable of doing far more varied things. I don't think the Radiants had any tracking fabrials like they've made nowadays.

The Radiants had some sort of elevator in Urithiru. I guess it could work off the gravity surge, but it doesn't seem like a direct application.

The Heralds, Spren and Radiants had various detection abilities as we can see from the following:

Kaladin's noticing Szeth's surgebinding during the Highstorm dream
Syl observing that there were many people near as they approached the warcamps (this seems most like the alerter)
The Radiants were apparently able to detect the midnight essence at great range.
Nale was apparently able to detect surgebinding all around the continent.

I think it is too soon to be sure that the newer fabrials provide capabilities that the Radiants didn't have. Obviously, if it was something the Radiants could easily do, they wouldn't have made a fabrial for it.

**Moogle** · December 12, 2014

...

I don't disagree with your points necessarily (though I have many quibbles), but there's a large difference between the Heralds/Radiants having fabrials capable of tracking people and them being able to do it innately. Just because Radiants were capable of, say, figuring out where the Midnight Essence was (which could be done via something like Renarin's future sight) does not mean the Stone Shamans are capable of it, which was the point of my post.

Szeth does not suddenly gain the abilities of a Herald by having an Honorblade (he doesn't seem to share Nalan's ability to sense Investiture usage), so I don't think the Stone Shamans would have all the abilities of the Radaints.

It's possible that the Radiants had a huge amount of technology that has since been lost and that the Stone Shamans managed to get a hold of this, but it seems unlikely to me.

Pathfinder · December 12, 2014

I don't disagree with your points necessarily (though I have many quibbles), but there's a large difference between the Heralds/Radiants having fabrials capable of tracking people and them being able to do it innately. Just because Radiants were capable of, say, figuring out where the Midnight Essence was (which could be done via something like Renarin's future sight) does not mean the Stone Shamans are capable of it, which was the point of my post.

Szeth does not suddenly gain the abilities of a Herald by having an Honorblade (he doesn't seem to share Nalan's ability to sense Investiture usage), so I don't think the Stone Shamans would have all the abilities of the Radaints.

It's possible that the Radiants had a huge amount of technology that has since been lost and that the Stone Shamans managed to get a hold of this, but it seems unlikely to me.

But in another thread you pointed out that Szeth was not using the honorblade to its full capabilities. For example, Sezeth thinking the honorblade needed 10 heart beats to be summoned, so for him that was how it functioned, even though in reality it could be summoned instantly. So assuming the honorblade can't do certain things, just because someone who doesn't know all its uses couldn't, doesn't mean it couldn't for a person who DOES know all its uses.

**Moogle** · December 12, 2014

But in another thread you pointed out that Szeth was not using the honorblade to its full capabilities. For example, Sezeth thinking the honorblade needed 10 heart beats to be summoned, so for him that was how it functioned, even though in reality it could be summoned instantly. So assuming the honorblade can't do certain things, just because someone who doesn't know all its uses couldn't, doesn't mean it couldn't for a person who DOES know all its uses.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that the Honorblades give the power to track Szeth through the entire continent. The Heralds seem to have powers separate from their Honorblade:

Rybal

Q: Can the Heralds Surgebind without their Blades and if not are they under the same restrictions that others are.

A: The Heralds without their Blades are incapable of the powers you're familiar with. It doesn't mean there aren't other things they can do.

(source)

I think that Nalan's Investiture-sense is part of that. Heralds seem kinda like Returned, and Vasher demonstrates an Investiture-sense by detecting the invisible Syl.

And even if the Honorblades are what allowed the Radiants to track the Midnight Essence (which they weren't, as the Heralds were not around at that time), there's no particular reason to assume the Stone Shamans are aware of how to use them to their full potential, since Szeth doesn't know.

I just find the idea that the Stone Shamans are tracking Szeth via ancient technology we've never seen before to be unlikely is all. It may very well be the case, but I don't find the evidence compelling enough when the alternative (that the Stone Shamans can just listen to rumors and find out who killed Szeth and took his Blade) is simple, easy, and very likely.

Edited December 12, 2014 by Ookla the Infinite

hoser · December 12, 2014

As always, I know nothing!

I don't disagree with your points necessarily (though I have many quibbles), but there's a large difference between the Heralds/Radiants having fabrials capable of tracking people and them being able to do it innately. Just because Radiants were capable of, say, figuring out where the Midnight Essence was (which could be done via something like Renarin's future sight) does not mean the Stone Shamans are capable of it, which was the point of my post.

Szeth does not suddenly gain the abilities of a Herald by having an Honorblade (he doesn't seem to share Nalan's ability to sense Investiture usage), so I don't think the Stone Shamans would have all the abilities of the Radaints.

It's possible that the Radiants had a huge amount of technology that has since been lost and that the Stone Shamans managed to get a hold of this, but it seems unlikely to me.

Capabilities of Heralds vs Radiant vs Shamans is a very interesting question. I believe the Heralds have some innate investiture benefits (long life, at least). I believe the Radiants get other benefits from their spren (Why make a fabrial to do what a simple communication w/your spren would tell you?).

But in another thread you pointed out that Szeth was not using the honorblade to its full capabilities. For example, Sezeth thinking the honorblade needed 10 heart beats to be summoned, so for him that was how it functioned, even though in reality it could be summoned instantly. So assuming the honorblade can't do certain things, just because someone who doesn't know all its uses couldn't, doesn't mean it couldn't for a person who DOES know all its uses.

As Pathfinder points out, Szeth seems to have only used the windrunning surges and infusion from the Honorblade, but he may not have been trained in other abilities.

The Shamans will clearly have access to all the main surges including truthwatching, but we have reason to doubt that they get the ancillary benefits (Kaladin's unconscious fighting, Shallan's visual recall, ...). I think Truthwatching will have strong limitations, because it would otherwise make the story unfun. The Radiants did not arrive until after the Midnight Essence. With complete precog, they could have been waiting. Wit knows where and when he needs to be, but not what he will find or what needs to be done. Atium only provides a small window forward. All these are ways to limit the utility of precognition.

I believe that the Radiants had a plan when they recreanted (I know, not a real word). They clearly chose to pass on only certain fabrials, as we know they had the healing fabrials, but nobody except Nale seems to have access to them. It is not a stretch to think that they had other fabrials and fabrial technology that they did not pass on.

Ookla, you are correct to draw the discussion back to the thread purpose, "How would the Shamans retrieve a blade?"

Truthwatching - kind of a blank slate at this point, but I don't think it will be able to do something that specific.
Detection of investiture usage - We didn't see Szeth detecting investiture usage, but maybe they could do it. They could use an unknown fabrial, I suppose. At this point there are a number of sources, so it would be a noisy procedure. Actually, if they could do this, they would know that there are Heralds and proto-radiants running around.
Herald allies - maybe, but Nale doesn't seem to be working w/them and declaring Szeth Truthless when he was actually truthful suggests a lack of heraldic guidance.
Rumor - the discovery of an Honorblade would be big news, but someone keeping it as a secret shardblade or an accidental loss would go uncovered.
Automatic retrieval - as pointed out above, it didn't happen. Further, there would be no need to retrieve the sword if it came back to you automagically.
Spies - I imagine the Shamans could have spies, but how would you track Szeth?
Monitoring - If they could monitor Szeth, they would already know that the Radiants are back.

After eliminating everything else I can think of, I can only imagine a posse of Shamans armed w/Honorblades and some detection ability (possibly related to Truthwatching, despite my doubt above).

Scriptorian · December 12, 2014

The larger point about the limited types of Radiant Fabrials may or may not be true. It's hard to say when we've seen so few.

The Radiants had some sort of elevator in Urithiru. I guess it could work off the gravity surge, but it doesn't seem like a direct application.

The Heralds, Spren and Radiants had various detection abilities as we can see from the following:

Kaladin's noticing Szeth's surgebinding during the Highstorm dream

Syl observing that there were many people near as they approached the warcamps (this seems most like the alerter)

The Radiants were apparently able to detect the midnight essence at great range.

Nale was apparently able to detect surgebinding all around the continent.

I think it is too soon to be sure that the newer fabrials provide capabilities that the Radiants didn't have. Obviously, if it was something the Radiants could easily do, they wouldn't have made a fabrial for it.

We also has instances of Shallan seemingly drawing things happening elsewhere.

I think its entirely possible that the oathstone could serve a tracking function without necessarily magically compelling the Truthless.

Personally, I'm not sure if its reasonable to assume that the Shamans would be using the Honorblades. It seems the best explanation for how they could expect to get the Truthless' Blade back from whoever killed him, but it feels really at odds with what we know of their culture for them to use the Blades with any regularity.

Edited December 12, 2014 by Serendipity

**Moogle** · December 12, 2014

...

Regarding your spying point, they don't have to track Szeth, they just have to find out who killed him, or, failing that, listen for rumors of someone who can walk on walls. Someone who picks up his Honorblade is going to make waves.

I also think there's an assumption you're making regarding the Stone Shamans: that they're competent. Szeth thinks to himself that the Stone Shamans would retrieve his Blade, but I think it is entirely possible that they could fail to do so (if, for example, Szeth's killer kept a low profile and never used the Honorblade). The whole idea, that they necessarily have a way to track Szeth/the Honorblade, seems to me to give them a power and competence we have no real guarantee they have.

And honestly, it's not like the vast vast majority of people who pick up a Shardblade are going to keep quiet about the fact. The histories of Shardblades are a matter of public record (or so I hazily recall based on Shallan's chapters and her attempting to learn Amaram's Blade's history), and generally they keep close track of Shardblades world-wide. If the Shamans' plan is a few spies waiting to hear about a Shardblade someone got off a Shin, it doesn't strike me as a terrible one.

Oudeis · December 12, 2014

Personally, I'm not sure if its reasonable to assume that the Shamans would be using the Honorblades.

Recall that Szeth says if he goes back to oppose the Shamans, they'll be armed with Honorblades. So, we have this to support the idea that they will use them, though your points remain valid that it does seem at odds with Shin culture. I look forward to finding out how these are reconciled.

Regarding your spying point, they don't have to track Szeth, they just have to find out who killed him, or, failing that, listen for rumors of someone who can walk on walls. Someone who picks up his Honorblade is going to make waves.

...

And honestly, it's not like the vast vast majority of people who pick up a Shardblade are going to keep quiet about the fact.

1. Recall that you're again assuming the premise that simply picking up an Honorblade is all you need to do to "Bond" it. I know there are two confusing W's-o-B out there, but one flat-out says that it's not that simple. Apart from Honorblades, we've seen three other types of Shardblades that form Bonds, and none of them are as simple as "pick it up." Assuming that Honorblades are unique in being even simpler than any other type of Blade seems like a flawed premise to base an argument on.

2. Actually, when people have compelling reason to, they have shown a tendency to keep Blades secret. The Vision of the Recreance showed about 200 Radiants per Order. Even if we assume that was the sum total of both the Stonewards and the Windrunners, and assuming the Bondsmiths were only 3 (and might not have had Blades), and the epigraph suggesting that one entire Order didn't Recreant, that's still a reasonable assumption of 1600 indestructible Blades that once existed. There are slightly more than 100 Blades officially accounted for now across the continent. The listeners had Blades no one knew about. Helaran had a Blade no one knew about. The King of Jah Keved was able to keep his own Blade to nothing more than a rumor. If you pass through a forest and catch fleeting glimpses of three deer, does that suggest to you that those three deer are the only deer that exist in the entire woods? Or does it suggest that deer are simply very, very good at hiding?

Basically, you're looking at the set of "Blades we know about," and saying that since you don't know about "Blades we don't know about," that your lack of data is proof that they don't exist. I respectfully disagree. Lack of proof is not proof of lack.

Finally, recall that the Shamans have possessed these blades for something like 4 millenia (closer to 6 earth millenia) and no one but Diagram-Smart Taravangian has ever figured out they have them. So the Shamans themselves are proof of the capacity to keep Honorblades secret. Why would a group so incredibly skilled at keeping these specific Blades a secret assume that it's impossible for anyone to keep these Blades a secret?

hoser · December 12, 2014

We also has instances of Shallan seemingly drawing things happening elsewhere.

Personally, I'm not sure if its reasonable to assume that the Shamans would be using the Honorblades. It seems the best explanation for how they could expect to get the Truthless' Blade back from whoever killed him, but it feels really at odds with what we know of their culture for them to use the Blades with any regularity.

Excellent point about Shallan.

As for the Shin blade users:

Recall that Szeth says if he goes back to oppose the Shamans, they'll be armed with Honorblades. So, we have this to support the idea that they will use them, though your points remain valid that it does seem at odds with Shin culture. I look forward to finding out how these are reconciled.

This.

And Szeth was well trained and familiar w/the windrunner vocabulary. For me, that points to a sacred cadre of people training w/these weapons over the millenia. Hence using them for training at least.

Edited December 12, 2014 by hoser

Pathfinder · December 12, 2014

I would also like to add that just because someone could theoretically grab the blade, and bond with it, doesn't mean they will know how to use the other abilities. This goes back to again how the blade took 10 heartbeats for Szeth to summon it, even though honorblades can be summoned instantly. Kal knows the power Szeth wields is coming from the sword because of Syl, but no one else knows that. As far as the general population is concerned, the assassin in white is an individual with incredible powers and a shardblade. An individual picking up the blade has no reason, unless informed by groups "in the know", to think the honorblade would do anything other than any other shardblade. So if the individual who then gets the sword thinks it is just a shardblade, for that individual it will just function as a shardblade, till they are enlightened otherwise, so no wall running.

Edited December 12, 2014 by Pathfinder

dvoraen · December 13, 2014

One thing I want to chime in on, regarding fabrials, is the following:

Who here, besides Peter , can say with certainty that the Heralds didn't teach the Radiants and humanity everything they know about fabrials, while potentially withholding knowledge and/or that knowledge being lost between Desolations? The simple fact that Urithiru has a conjoined-gemstone lift that works based on counterweights supports the idea that there was a higher technology level before matters become covered up.

In other words, there could very well be advanced fabrials lying about for the Stone Shamanate and other people to use (to say nothing of the Oathgates being accurate uses of the Transportation Surge on a planetary scale), and 'modern' fabrials are a rediscovery of the potentially lost knowledge the Heralds likely possess.

Edited December 13, 2014 by dvoraen

Oudeis · December 13, 2014

A comment on the assumption that Renarin's visions are related to his Radiantness:

If we read Lift's chapter, and Wyndle did not comment or make note of her ability to turn food into Stormlight, if no one had told you expressly that it was a Boon from the Nightwatcher... would you all be making the same assumption? After all, human bodies "grow" by digesting food and turning it into metabolic energy, so why couldn't anyone with the Growth Surge simply get Stormlight from food?

We see that Renarin has a unique trait, and we also know he's a Radiant. With incredibly flimsy justification flying in the face of some pretty clear explanations in text, people are assuming that there's no option but that those two are related.

Lift has a unique trait, and she's a Radiant. If Wyndle never said, "How can you touch me?" would the same people who assume that Truthwatching means perfect, uncontrollable 62-day-in-advance precognition that for some reason only happens during Highstorms, assume her ability to physically touch her spren was simply an extension of her Friction Surge?

I'm not saying it's not possible. I personally think it's unlikely given what we know, but it's not impossible. However, I absolutely do not think it's something we can safely assume is true.

hoser · December 13, 2014

Please accept my apologies for my impolite tone in advance.

A comment on the assumption that Renarin's visions are related to his Radiantness:

...

We see that Renarin has a unique trait, and we also know he's a Radiant. With incredibly flimsy justification flying in the face of some pretty clear explanations in text, people are assuming that there's no option but that those two are related. ...

Renarin's visions seem particularly relevant to being a Truthwatcher whose Radiant ability is that he sees.

So not only does the ability relate to the name of the order, but he claims that the seeing is the ability of the order. While I believe that there must be limitations to the "seeing," it seems totally related. Given that we don't know what he actually sees, it is hard to judge perfectly.

It is also relevant that we know that Renarin has not visited the Nightwatcher. The only magical event we know is his relationship w/his spren. Occam's Razor and a logical connection does not seem like an "incredibly flimsy justification".

I am curious about the explanations in the text that run counter to this association. Please enlighten me.

**Moogle** · December 13, 2014

1. Recall that you're again assuming the premise that simply picking up an Honorblade is all you need to do to "Bond" it. I know there are two confusing W's-o-B out there, but one flat-out says that it's not that simple. Apart from Honorblades, we've seen three other types of Shardblades that form Bonds, and none of them are as simple as "pick it up." Assuming that Honorblades are unique in being even simpler than any other type of Blade seems like a flawed premise to base an argument on.

I'll accept that it's an assumption, but I don't think it's a particularly unsupported one. Shardblades, as in dead spren's sword form, are based on Honorblades by multiple WoBs. They have a few differences (behavior on being dropped, eye color changes), but ultimately seem very similar because they were designed by the spren to be that way. I find the idea that Honorblades need something besides the typical gem-intent-to-bond trick uncompelling.

The confusing WoBs you're talking about have been rectified from what I understand, as the confusion triggered from Brandon originally saying "you can't bond an Honorblade" caused us to ask him again, where someone literally outright said "you said you can't bond an Honorblade, would you mind confirming that?" (paraphrased), which is when he said you can.

2. Actually, when people have compelling reason to, they have shown a tendency to keep Blades secret. The Vision of the Recreance showed about 200 Radiants per Order. Even if we assume that was the sum total of both the Stonewards and the Windrunners, and assuming the Bondsmiths were only 3 (and might not have had Blades), and the epigraph suggesting that one entire Order didn't Recreant, that's still a reasonable assumption of 1600 indestructible Blades that once existed. There are slightly more than 100 Blades officially accounted for now across the continent. The listeners had Blades no one knew about. Helaran had a Blade no one knew about. The King of Jah Keved was able to keep his own Blade to nothing more than a rumor. If you pass through a forest and catch fleeting glimpses of three deer, does that suggest to you that those three deer are the only deer that exist in the entire woods? Or does it suggest that deer are simply very, very good at hiding?

I'll concede the point here, with the minor quibble that the Windrunners were likely more rare than most of the other orders so there's probably more than 1600 Blades around. I find it difficult to believe most Blades are hidden, however, and my instant assumption is that most of the Radiants were not quite as dumb as the Windrunners + Stonewards (though yes we don't know why they did what they did it's premature to call them dumb, though they're not exactly looking too intelligent right now) and didn't decide to leave their tools of mass destruction lying around for people to use (as we see, most of their fabrials remained secret). This is extremely unsupported though and is nothing more than a flight of fancy on my part.

Finally, recall that the Shamans have possessed these blades for something like 4 millenia (closer to 6 earth millenia) and no one but Diagram-Smart Taravangian has ever figured out they have them. So the Shamans themselves are proof of the capacity to keep Honorblades secret. Why would a group so incredibly skilled at keeping these specific Blades a secret assume that it's impossible for anyone to keep these Blades a secret?

The Shamans themselves can't be proof of their capacity to keep Honorblades secret because Taravangian was able to figure it out. He's not a farseer who generates information from nothing, he makes deductions from his available information and makes further deductions from that. At some point, the Shamanate let out the fact that they had Honorblades out, which is why Taravangian knows at all. I expect it has something to do with the part where Taravangian knew Szeth was Surgebinding, which allowed him to deduce they had the other Honorblades, but who knows?

The Shamanate is not terribly good at keeping secrets. They are secret because their culture forbids the use of the Honorblades (only Truthless are low enough to use them as far as we know, pending Szeth noting he would fight people armed with Honorblades) and because the Shin are incredibly xenophobic so there's no option for anyone to really find out.

Again, I'll concede the general point that someone who killed Szeth might keep the Shardblade secret more often than I originally thought, but there's such an incredible leap from there to assuming the Shamanate has magical technology capable of tracking Szeth across the continent that we've never seen before that I find it difficult to assume. The only expensive tracking fabrial we've ever seen has only reacted to the presence of humans in general (so we don't know if it's possible to make fabrials that can track individuals) and it had a range limited to a mile or so (if not less).

I maintain that the classical non-magical methods of rumor-listening and keeping an eye on Szeth via agents is the most likely way the Shamanate is using to find his killer.

And uh, to actually move away from theory to the empirical: Kaladin killed Szeth, he informed the whole world that he did so, and he was seen carrying a Shardblade after the fact by the entire army as he flew over them. The Stone Shamans, if they're getting that report, are going to assume one thing: Kaladin's got the Honorblade. Which is the correct assumption. The whole spying tactic would work in this case.

The simple fact that Urithiru has a conjoined-gemstone lift that works based on counterweights supports the idea that there was a higher technology level before matters become covered up.

In other words, there could very well be advanced fabrials lying about for the Stone Shamanate and other people to use (to say nothing of the Oathgates being accurate uses of the Transportation Surge on a planetary scale), and 'modern' fabrials are a rediscovery of the potentially lost knowledge the Heralds likely possess.

We don't know Urithiru's lift works on conjoined gemstones. Here's the passage where that idea comes from:

Storms, this place was high. His ears had popped several times while riding to the top, using the fabrial lift that Navani had discovered. She spoke of counterweights and conjoined gemstones, sounding awed by the technology of the ancients. All he knew was that her discovery had let him avoid climbing up some hundred flights of steps.

Navani's current research, as shown in WoR, is lifting things via conjoined gemstones. They used it during the attack on the Voidbringers. I find it entirely likely that what she actually said to Dalinar was, "Wow! This lift here is basically what I've already been working on with counterweights and conjoined gemstones! <More talk about how she's marveling about how they bypassed the limitations of the conjoined fabrial method>. The ancients were really good at this!". Meanwhile, Dalinar is nodding and smiling and thinking about how pretty she is when she's excited about technology.

There's no sign she's even investigated the actual mechanism, which could be a Gravity fabrial. Given the limitations of conjoined gemstones - they shatter very easily, and you need tons of them to do the whole lift thing - I find a Gravity fabrial would be the superior choice. Even assuming the Radiants had access to modern fabrials like conjoined gemstones, we also know they had access to Surgebinding fabrials, so they would have had the choice.

Given how low their supplies of Stormlight are (it is mentioned that their only source of it is from the gems of those who come from the warcamps, and those gems are partially drained by the Oathgate), I find it difficult to believe that she charged an entire elevator for Dalinar's sake. A single Stormlight lantern is considered "extravagant" my Shallan, for reference, and you'd need more than that to do the conjoined fabrial trick. This suggests the elevator was being recharged on its own, such as via exposure to highstorm from below. That information seems relevant to me, but it never came up, which suggests to me that they never found out how the lift worked.

Edited December 13, 2014 by Ookla the Infinite

Oudeis · December 13, 2014

"To speak of what is to come is forbidden." -Honor himself.

Did you read my post? There's just as much connection between "visions" and "truthWATCHERS" "SEE" as there is between the Growth Surge dealing with a human's source of energy, or the Friction Surge dealing with whether or not you can grip something.

Why are you so certain we know everything there is to know about where magic abilities can come from? Before we were expressly told, had you realized that the Thrill and Death Rattles are things that we get from the Unmade? We know there are more than two Unmade, we've seen that they have a tendency to gift things to people, and the Diagram mentions that all of them have to deal with precognition in some way. How can you be so 100% positive, two books in, when we've only seen extensive scenes in three of the ten kingdoms of the world, and really just two specific places outside of Alethkar, that you already know the sum total of where powers can come from? We don't even know where Shardplate came from. Or the Ryshadium. Or very much at all about Voidbinding. Or what powers the Splinters of Adonalsium might have.

This is all I'm saying. The assumption seems to be: Visions and "seeing things" are similar, and we know literally every possible source of arcane phenomena, ergo all Truthwatchers would get visions during Highstorms, which for some reason despite being something everyone would notice, was never once mentioned in the Words of Radiance book (note that when Renarin comes up and claims to be a Truthwatcher, Kaladin looks at Shallan, who indicates she knows nothing about that order, and she's just finished the book). A lot of people seem very comfortable with both of those assumptions. I see gaping holes in them.

Let me say this one last time in case it gets lost in the shuffle. It's still entirely possible. I cannot say with certainty that it's not the case; I think it goes against a lot of what we know. No other Surgebinder seems to have powers that come upon them uncontrollably after sixty days of experiencing them. Ym doesn't seem to see the future during Highstorms (though I'll grant maybe he just didn't mention his tendency to wake up after Highstorms having carved things on the walls). It's stated several times that Voidbinding and the Unmade are great at precognition, and it's stated by Honor himself that precognition is forbidden. That's the actual word he uses; forbidden. Seems like an odd way to refer to a trait he handed out to 10% of his Heralds.

Mookla:

Dead sprenblades aren't based on Honorblades. All the quotes you reference say that the Radiantblades are based on the Honorblades. To bond a Radiantblade, you first have to attract a spren, then in a process that can take months or even years forge such a close bond to that Spren that you say a total of three Ideals and get the ability to summon a Blade. The "gem and intent" trick only works after a Blade has been killed.

If you have it handy, I would very much like to see the WoB you reference where he flat-out says "the previous WoB is wrong." The one you showed me somewhat recently doesn't say that.

After six thousand years, one man, empowered with inhuman brilliance by 1/16th of God to the point that he's able to intuit things like worldhopping becomes the first person to ever deduce that the Shin have Honorblades. So you're right. It's not impossible. Clearly, the Shin have gained this same divine capacity for intellect and have two thousand years to wait for the odds to be 50/50 that they have a single day of being smart enough to simply deduce the location of the final Honorblade. I concede the point.

Seriously though, you flat-out state that Taravangian was limited on Diagram Day to Inductive Reasoning (if I recall the various types of logical reasoning correctly) which is actually a fairly inaccurate method of reasoning. Deductive reasoning would be a better way to learn things, and does not require that the Shamanate has ever told anyone, "Hey, we've got Honorblades."

First, do we actually know anyone has told the world, "Kaladin killed Szeth?" i cannot recall from those last few chapters if it was in Dalinar's Spanreed Facebook post. A very few people saw the Assassin in White in the middle of the battle, and next to no one but Dalinar, Adolin and Bridge Four noticed (or recognized) Kaladin and Szeth take off into the storm. And yes, people saw he's got a cool new Shardblade. He calls her Syl. There is absolutely no one who will be so certain he's got two that he can't stick the Honorblade somewhere, show off Syl (who, remember, can look like anything) and be known for having one Shardblade. It's not impossible that it's still secret. And second, Szeth doesn't say, "on the off chance I'm killed publicly and my death and the location of my Honorblade are announced to the world, the Shamante will collect my Blade." You're right, in this specific circumstance, rumor could prolly give them at least clues. But Szeth was sure the could find him even when he spent years not summoning his Blade or using his powers, when his greatest risk of death was catching some fatal illness he has no immunity to since he comes from a race of xenophobes who prolly don't have resistance to the Kharbranthian Flu during a Weeping when he couldn't Invest to heal it. That's like saying if there are six boxes, five contain bees and one has a cake, and I pick the one closest to me because I'm lazy and I luck out and it's cake, that being lazy is clearly the best way to get cake instead of bees. Wow, I really just wrote that sentence. Can I submit it for a Reckoner analogy?

Also, I'm not necessarily a proponent of the Shamanate having magic Honorbladedar. I have no idea how they expect to find the Blade. Maybe it's a feature of Honorblades that you can use them to sense others. Maybe they've got an Alerter fabrial. Maybe there's something about the Oathstone that's like a Conjoiner and lets them spy (although they could only spy on Taravangian, who has the stone). Maybe the claim was simply bravado on their part. However, I reject your assertion that it has to be binary. You don't believe they've got Bladedar, so the only other possible option is that, despite the fact that not one single Vorin person who should worship the Honorblades realized that the man killing all of their governments had one, it's nevertheless a simple matter of spending some time by the watercooler until someone casually mentions, "Oh, hey, this dude Chad over in Marabethia killed some Shin and took his Honorblade." One thing being unlikely doesn't mean that one other randomly chosen option has to be the answer; if there are two very unlikely options then it's time to start looking for third options. At the moment I'm leaning towards bravado on the part of the Shamanate.

Sidenote... suddenly thinking that Szeth was overselling how difficult opposing the Shamanate will be. They're in charge of the country that is about to get even more Everstormed than anywhere else. They are at the maximum cross between "unprepared for any sort of storm" and "Everstorm fresh and powerful off the sea". They will have so much more to worry about than on enTruthed Truthless.

I tentatively agree with you on the elevabrial thing... while I'm loathe to claim to know more about fabrials than Navani, I have to admit I need some more explanation to make this make sense to me. In order for a conjoined elevator gemstone to work, there would have had to have been a gemstone capable of falling as far as Dalinar was going to go up, and it would have had to be pushed down by a force as great as it would take to lift Dalinar. They did this during her tests with scaffolding and physically carrying the gemstones back up each time. They did it on the Plains by dropping rocks down into Chasms, which they couldn't have repeated if they wanted to unless they were somehow able to drag back to earth the gems up in the air which... would have taken the same amount of human effort. I dunno. Maybe there are weights that get winched back up by windmills or something, a way to store energy that the conjoined fabrials then take advantage of to turn that energy into a functioning elevator? I dunno. On balance, we know the Radiants had at least three Fabrials of the Surges, and that we've seen, they never used one of the more modern fabrials. Dalinar even tells her after a vision that in ancient times he's never seen a modern-style fabrial. On balance, I'm tempted to believe she just figured it was a type of fabrial she's familiar with, like how she thought Plate and Blades were simply ancient Fabrials which we now know isn't the case, and that the elevator runs on Gravity.

Just one man's opinion. Might make a good WoB. Maybe a sneaky one. "Did people in ancient Roshar have access to conjoined fabrials like spanreeds?" Might be a sneaky way to get him to say no, and confirm that they prolly aren't using them to power their elevators, then.

Also, why do you think the Windrunners were more rare? If I'm remember the scene correctly, they had even numbers with the Stonewards, and I believe the Stonewards were mentioned as being the whole Order, yes? I should re-read that scene...

Twenty@20 · December 13, 2014

So if the individual who then gets the sword thinks it is just a shardblade, for that individual it will just function as a shardblade, till they are enlightened otherwise, so no wall running.

This got me thinking. To take the logic further ahead, suppose a person mistakes the Honorblade for simple sword (unlikely but this is only a supposition), will the Honorblade start behaving like a normal sword? My personal feeling is that it is unlikely. What I trying to ask is that do we know how much the personal belief of a person can influence the abilities of a shardblade. Summoning a blade may depend on personal choice or belief but I think the intrinsic abilities of the blade can't be changed if the holder believes otherwise. So in my opinion a bonded Honorblade will grant surgebinding abilities through the bond whether the person knows about it or not.

Another point regarding the missing shardblades from Recreance. Are we sure that all Radiants severed the Nahel bond with their spren in blade form? Is it inconceivable that many Radiants might have broken the bond with the spren itself? Then the number of missing blades might come down substantially.

**Moogle** · December 13, 2014

This is all I'm saying. The assumption seems to be: Visions and "seeing things" are similar, and we know literally every possible source of arcane phenomena, ergo all Truthwatchers would get visions during Highstorms, which for some reason despite being something everyone would notice, was never once mentioned in the Words of Radiance book (note that when Renarin comes up and claims to be a Truthwatcher, Kaladin looks at Shallan, who indicates she knows nothing about that order, and she's just finished the book). A lot of people seem very comfortable with both of those assumptions. I see gaping holes in them.

Let me say this one last time in case it gets lost in the shuffle. It's still entirely possible. I cannot say with certainty that it's not the case; I think it goes against a lot of what we know. No other Surgebinder seems to have powers that come upon them uncontrollably after sixty days of experiencing them. Ym doesn't seem to see the future during Highstorms (though I'll grant maybe he just didn't mention his tendency to wake up after Highstorms having carved things on the walls). It's stated several times that Voidbinding and the Unmade are great at precognition, and it's stated by Honor himself that precognition is forbidden. That's the actual word he uses; forbidden. Seems like an odd way to refer to a trait he handed out to 10% of his Heralds.

While I sort of agree on your skepticism regarding Renarin's abilities, I do have two comments here:

Words of Radiance, the in-world book, makes special note of the Truthwatchers never being very open about what they do. I don't find it surprising that Shallan knows nothing about them. If it was forbidden to share their theoretical visions of the future, that would fit their observed behavior.
We do have examples of KR besides Renarin with uncontrollable visions: Kaladin and Dalinar. Kal gets to "ride the storm" and not have the option of stopping it. In WoK, he even tries to walk out into the middle of the highstorm while "sleepwalking" because of this. We also have examples of other Radiants with visions through Shallan, who managed to draw Shallash destroying a statue from afar. Kaladin, Renarin, Dalinar, and Shallan (the Radiants we have actually had more than one PoV from) all have visions, and 3/4 of them are related to the highstorm, and 3/4 of them are uncontrollable.

Dead sprenblades aren't based on Honorblades. All the quotes you reference say that the Radiantblades are based on the Honorblades. To bond a Radiantblade, you first have to attract a spren, then in a process that can take months or even years forge such a close bond to that Spren that you say a total of three Ideals and get the ability to summon a Blade. The "gem and intent" trick only works after a Blade has been killed.

The gem trick works just fine on regular live spren, which is how modern fabrials work. I wouldn't be surprised if you could trap a Nahel bonding spren in a gemstone the same way you do any other spren, with the difference being that the Nahel spren are likely too smart to allow themselves to be trapped.

But that's a tangent. You're right it only works on dead spren, but it's not like Honorblades are alive. Again, I agree with you that it's not confirmed and it could very well be something else, but I just don't think it's very likely that bonding an Honorblade requires something particularly special. Brandon has noted that spren revert to the form of a sword when they die because they were patterned after the Honorblades, so a deadsprenblade could share more with Honorblades than a live one, I think.

If you have it handy, I would very much like to see the WoB you reference where he flat-out says "the previous WoB is wrong." The one you showed me somewhat recently doesn't say that.

After six thousand years, one man, empowered with inhuman brilliance by 1/16th of God to the point that he's able to intuit things like worldhopping becomes the first person to ever deduce that the Shin have Honorblades.

Seriously though, you flat-out state that Taravangian was limited on Diagram Day to Inductive Reasoning (if I recall the various types of logical reasoning correctly) which is actually a fairly inaccurate method of reasoning. Deductive reasoning would be a better way to learn things, and does not require that the Shamanate has ever told anyone, "Hey, we've got Honorblades."

The WoB I gave you earlier simply says that you can bond Honorblades, and he says this after being told by the questioner that he had previously said you could not. I'm not sure what more you want?

Q: You mentioned that human can’t bond Honorblades, but Nalan tells Szeth that his bond with his Honorblade has been broken. Can you clear this up?

A: Humans CAN bond Honorblades. There's a crucial difference between Honorblades and Shardblades. When you drop an Honorblade, it does not disappear, even if it has been bonded. A Shardblade will disappear when dropped.

(source)

The questioner also makes an excellent point: Nalan said Szeth had a bond to his Honorblade. I trust Nalan on this point, I think.

Nowhere does it say Taravangian is the first person to figure out the Shin have Honorblades, only that he has. Nalan seems aware that the Shin have the Honorblades himself, and doesn't react with any surprise when Szeth mentions it. So, the Skybreakers know. The Ghostbloods seem fully aware of the various Surgebinding powers (Mraize was able to deduce Shallan could Soulcast), and I would not be surprised in the least to learn that they know of the Honorblades' location and how they work. I think you're treating Taravangian figuring out of the Honorblades' location as much harder than it is.

Somewhat pedantic sidenote: deductive reasoning requires you start with a base set of assumptions, and then logically go from there. You start with your assumptions, and then deduce things from them. "I assume that if it is raining, the sidewalk is wet. I see that it is raining. Therefore, the sidewalk is wet." It requires "perfect knowledge", as it were. Taravangian does not have perfect knowledge and he can't 100% assume things and then perform logic to figure things out. He has to reason things out from uncertain information, like his knowledge of history. You can do inductive reasoning very accurately, but ultimately your results are not 100% logically proven like deductive reasoning. That's why I'd say he's limited to inductive logic, and he himself brings up this point:

The Diagram was not perfect, however. They caught errors in it now and then. Or . . . not truly errors, just missed guesses. Taravangian had been supremely brilliant that day, but he had not been able to see the future. He had made educated guesses— very educated—and had been right an eerie amount of the time .

First, do we actually know anyone has told the world, "Kaladin killed Szeth?" i cannot recall from those last few chapters if it was in Dalinar's Spanreed Facebook post. A very few people saw the Assassin in White in the middle of the battle, and next to no one but Dalinar, Adolin and Bridge Four noticed (or recognized) Kaladin and Szeth take off into the storm. And yes, people saw he's got a cool new Shardblade. He calls her Syl. There is absolutely no one who will be so certain he's got two that he can't stick the Honorblade somewhere, show off Syl (who, remember, can look like anything) and be known for having one Shardblade. It's not impossible that it's still secret. And second, Szeth doesn't say, "on the off chance I'm killed publicly and my death and the location of my Honorblade are announced to the world, the Shamante will collect my Blade." You're right, in this specific circumstance, rumor could prolly give them at least clues. But Szeth was sure the could find him even when he spent years not summoning his Blade or using his powers, when his greatest risk of death was catching some fatal illness he has no immunity to since he comes from a race of xenophobes who prolly don't have resistance to the Kharbranthian Flu during a Weeping when he couldn't Invest to heal it. That's like saying if there are six boxes, five contain bees and one has a cake, and I pick the one closest to me because I'm lazy and I luck out and it's cake, that being lazy is clearly the best way to get cake instead of bees. Wow, I really just wrote that sentence. Can I submit it for a Reckoner analogy?

I don't believe it's been confirmed, but I find the idea that Dalinar hasn't told the entire world that the Assassin in White is dead and killed by Kaladin to be... questionable. It's a morale thing, if nothing else, and Dalinar really has no reason to hide that information.

The Stone Shamans are, for the moment, refusing to believe that the Radiants are back. Perhaps the Everstorm will change their tune, but I don't think they'll accept the public explanation that Kaladin is a Radiant after hearing he killed Szeth. They'll see him using the powers of a Windrunner, and they'll know from reports and rumors that he was seen with a Blade. If they had anyone at all they trust get a look at the Blade Kaladin has, they'd know it was abnormally short and undecorated for a Shardblade, and they'll be suspicious.

I agree that the Shamanate waiting on rumor/speculation is not the guaranteed best way to retrieve their Blade, but I don't think they could do much better. You yourself bring up the bravado explanation, which I myself commented on earlier in the thread. I don't think the Shamans are as competent as Szeth seems to think they are. We'll see, I guess, but for the moment I expect some mysterious Shin to attack Kaladin at some point to try and get his Honorblade.

hoser · December 13, 2014

Honor does say that to speak of what is to come is forbidden. He also speaks of the coming everstorm.

He also sees the future, but not as well as Cultivation.

Truthwatchers are one of the orders most associated with Cultivation if you subscribe to the theory that the top of the surgebinding chart is more Honor-Related (with male Heralds) and the bottom is more Cultivation-related (with female Heralds). Shards have had precognitive powers in other parts of the Cosmere and the precognitive abilities have been imparted to the magic-users of that Shard. Based on intent, I believe that Cultivation and Odium would be better at predicting the future than Honor.

So it makes total sense to me that Truthwatchers would have some precognitive abilities. I don't know how to reconcile that with the ban on speaking of the future, but it seems possible as my grasp of Vorin theology is not very good. Vorinism also seems to have strayed from Honor's intent over the millenia since he was splintered

Did you read my post? There's just as much connection between "visions" and "truthWATCHERS" "SEE" as there is between the Growth Surge dealing with a human's source of energy, or the Friction Surge dealing with whether or not you can grip something.

Um, yes. In fact, I quoted your post.

Your analogy to Lift makes no sense to me. Here we have Lift, with two distinct magical investments producing distinct effects. Compare to Renarin, where we have a single known magical investment and only two magical effects. I consider the healing of his eyesight to be a minor effect of being invested, much like the Lopen's arm regrowing. This leaves only one magical effect: the visions (unless you think putting oneself in dangerous situations and spazzing out is the magical power of Truthwatchers). To me, the logical deduction is that the visions are related to his surges.

Yes, it is not absolutely proven. If we learn of another magical intervention affecting Renarin, we will have to consider whether the visions come from that.

Pathfinder · December 13, 2014

This got me thinking. To take the logic further ahead, suppose a person mistakes the Honorblade for simple sword (unlikely but this is only a supposition), will the Honorblade start behaving like a normal sword? My personal feeling is that it is unlikely. What I trying to ask is that do we know how much the personal belief of a person can influence the abilities of a shardblade. Summoning a blade may depend on personal choice or belief but I think the intrinsic abilities of the blade can't be changed if the holder believes otherwise. So in my opinion a bonded Honorblade will grant surgebinding abilities through the bond whether the person knows about it or not.

Another point regarding the missing shardblades from Recreance. Are we sure that all Radiants severed the Nahel bond with their spren in blade form? Is it inconceivable that many Radiants might have broken the bond with the spren itself? Then the number of missing blades might come down substantially.

I'm sorry, let me clarify. If you gave a caveman a sniper rifle, and he had no reason to know that he has to lock the bullet in the chamber, aim and pull the trigger, all he will use it as is a club. It took Kaladin having seen Szeth flying and wall running to have an idea it was possible, and even then it took time based on that knowledge to re-orientate his way of thinking in order to accomplish it. Now have a sword which has the CAPACITY to make a person fly and wall run, but the person only knows how to bond it and has no clue that it can let them fly or wall run. So why would the person even attempt to do so? Why would the person look for the metaphorical trigger to pull or button to push? The only scenario I could think of, is the way superheroes discover their powers. A situation appears that threatens their life, and they suddenly somehow use their ability. So in the case of the windrunner honorblade, the person would have to be pushed off a cliff, and even then I think that is a stretch

@Moogle: Thing is, I think he is right on the logic of how Szeth states the Shamanite WILL find him. I admit it is my opinion, but the logic to me says you do not base such certainty on relying on rumors. True this is a HUGE stretch, but what would the shamanite do if Szeth got into a fight with Kal, was wounded, fled out to the shattered plain and then was suddenly eaten by a chasmfiend sword and all? In that case the best information they would have to work with was the direction he fled. By the time they mobilized people to pick it up, the chasmfiend could be long gone with highstorms destroying any of the chasmfiends tracks. That leaves A LOT to chance. Someone would not be so certain if it relied on so much chance. At least that is my view

Edited December 13, 2014 by Pathfinder

dvoraen · December 13, 2014

Honor does say that to speak of what is to come is forbidden. He also speaks of the coming everstorm.

He also sees the future, but not as well as Cultivation.

Truthwatchers are one of the orders most associated with Cultivation if you subscribe to the theory that the top of the surgebinding chart is more Honor-Related (with male Heralds) and the bottom is more Cultivation-related (with female Heralds). Shards have had precognitive powers in other parts of the Cosmere and the precognitive abilities have been imparted to the magic-users of that Shard. Based on intent, I believe that Cultivation and Odium would be better at predicting the future than Honor.

So it makes total sense to me that Truthwatchers would have some precognitive abilities. I don't know how to reconcile that with the ban on speaking of the future, but it seems possible as my grasp of Vorin theology is not very good. Vorinism also seems to have strayed from Honor's intent over the millenia since he was splintered

Um, yes. In fact, I quoted your post.

Your analogy to Lift makes no sense to me. Here we have Lift, with two distinct magical investments producing distinct effects. Compare to Renarin, where we have a single known magical investment and only two magical effects. I consider the healing of his eyesight to be a minor effect of being invested, much like the Lopen's arm regrowing. This leaves only one magical effect: the visions (unless you think putting oneself in dangerous situations and spazzing out is the magical power of Truthwatchers). To me, the logical deduction is that the visions are related to his surges.

Yes, it is not absolutely proven. If we learn of another magical intervention affecting Renarin, we will have to consider whether the visions come from that.

RE: Bolded

This is why I claim it's not just the Honorblades that the spren emulated. Shallan has already demonstrated that she has something else going on with her (her drawings of what are likely distant events, as well as her selectively eidetic memory*), and the fact that Renarin is showing possible precognition, which Sylphrena flat out states isn't of Honor (though we know he's imperfect at it), seriously hints at another thing going on here, to me.

* Another thing about Memories, is that in The Way of Kings Shallan even makes the observation that she has a limit to her Memory taking, before she has to offload them into a drawing or equivalent.

Edited December 13, 2014 by dvoraen

Oudeis · December 13, 2014

Words of Radiance, the in-world book, makes special note of the Truthwatchers never being very open about what they do.

They're not open... but you seem to be assuming that it's possible literally every single one of them sequestered themselves away with zero witnesses every single Highstorm without fail, and that no one ever commented on how odd that habit was. Dalinar was one man trying to hide his visions, the most politically powerful man in all Roshar, and not only was he unable to stop everyone talking about it when they couldn't see it, he wasn't even able to go two months without having a vision in front of his own men. I don't understand how you select which things can remain perfect, unknown secrets, like the mass hallucinations of more than 10% of what keeps humanity alive, and what is more-or-less common knowledge, like nine Blades no one has seen in six thousand years.

We do have examples of KR besides Renarin with uncontrollable visions:

You bring up excellent points. Dalinar does have uncontrollable visions every Highstorm... and we are specifically and expressly told that this has nothing to do with Bondsmithing. Honor himself flat-out says, "I am using my Shardic powers to craft this hallucidiary and shove it into someone's brain." In fact, by the time Dalinar binds the Stormfather, the visions stop.

Kaladin rides the storm once, and he doesn't control it. It's an entirely new experience for him and we later learn he assumes at first that it's nothing more than a dream. The very second time he does it, he now knows it's not a dream, immediately takes control, and turns around to have a conversation with the Stormfather.

And who knows what's up with Shallan. We know from the Ars Arcanum that Lightweavers make spiritual connections to the things they craft art out of, and the two farsight drawings she makes are of people she's got some sort of connection to (Yalb she's drawn a few pictures of, and I presume she's got some sort of connection to the Herald upon whom her Order is based). Doesn't happen during a Highstorm... and she sorta does it by making the conscious decision to give up control... it's all just a weird situation.

So, to summarize, of the four Radiants you bring up (which doesn't include Lift or Ym, neither of which seem to have any manner of Vision whatsoever) one has Visions from a confirmed outside source, and one has Highstorm visions he's able to control by the very second time it happens. Based on this evidence, you see absolutely no choice but to assume that Renarin's visions, which he cannot control after 10 times despite the fact that he's got a spren who should be able to give him at least an idea that what's happening is part of his Surgebinding which flies in the face of an actual edict spoken by the Almighty himself and is most similar to a phenomenon happening to his father which we know for a fact has nothing to do with Surgebinding... is simply a common trait of all Truthwatchers, despite no historical record or any mention of it during the Point of View of the other Truthwatcher, Ym. And you literally cannot understand why I think it's merely possible, instead of a foregone conclusion.

The gem trick works just fine on regular live spren, which is how modern fabrials work.

No Shardblade anywhere operates on the same principle as modern fabrials, per Navani. By this line of reasoning, I could say that Honorblades are metal and hemalurgic spikes are metal, so all you have to do is figure out where on your own body to stab the Honorblade and that's how you bond to it.

...I just don't think it's very likely that bonding an Honorblade requires something particularly special.

Believe what you wish. Just please stop stating it as fact.

The questioner also makes an excellent point: Nalan said Szeth had a bond to his Honorblade. I trust Nalan on this point, I think.

And again, I'm not saying a Bond is impossible. I think that when Mr. Sanderson said the first quote, what he meant was, "You don't just pick up and Bond an Honorblade. The process involves being GIVEN an Honorblade." You ignore that second half of the original quote a lot.

Nowhere does it say Taravangian is the first person to figure out the Shin have Honorblades, only that he has. Nalan seems aware that the Shin have the Honorblades himself, and doesn't react with any surprise when Szeth mentions it. So, the Skybreakers know. The Ghostbloods seem fully aware of the various Surgebinding powers (Mraize was able to deduce Shallan could Soulcast), and I would not be surprised in the least to learn that they know of the Honorblades' location and how they work. I think you're treating Taravangian figuring out of the Honorblades' location as much harder than it is.

So... your evidence is one man who has been alive longer than the Honorblades themselves have existed, and two assumptions. Your first assumption is that Nale is the sort of open, talkative boss who has a long history of sharing details with his subordinates, perhaps during team-building exercises at corporate retreates. And your second is, "Ghostbloods know about Surgebinding, ergo they must know that the Honorblades are real and also where they are." That doesn't seem at all a stretch to you? I'm not even going to address that point. At this point you're shoring up flagrant assumptions with more flagrant assumptions and acting confused when I don't follow you.

I see flaws in your various assumptions about how Taravangian thought on the day of the Diagram, but let me address a few central issues first. First of all, how on earth can you suggest that the man smarter than anyone has ever been in history would for some reason be limited by inductive reasoning? I have less information than him, I'm not as smart as him, and there's nothing preventing me from using deduction, induction, or even abduction. How on earth can you justify the claim that he'd only use inductive reasoning?

I don't believe it's been confirmed, but I find the idea that Dalinar hasn't told the entire world that the Assassin in White is dead and killed by Kaladin to be... questionable. It's a morale thing, if nothing else, and Dalinar really has no reason to hide that information.

The same morale boost comes from telling everyone he's dead, and leaving it at that. Revealing that Kaladin himself did it serves no additional purpose. And there's plenty of reason to keep it a secret. They have Rlain now, who can tell them, "We gave away that Shin six years ago". They officially have no idea who Szeth was working for, or what his purpose was. Feeding a hidden enemy all of your information is a tactical disadvantage. I'd like to see how things fall out. If he can at all convince the general population that the Assassin was driven off but is still alive, that would be better for Alethkar, since whoever wants Dalinar dead won't instantly know that Plan A has failed, time to release Plan B. We'll have to see how things shook out, I don't know if it's possible to say that, but at the very least keeping as many details as possible secret keeps accurate information from getting to the enemies of Alethkar.

Again, I'm not saying that this is 100% what's going to happen, or that your suggestion is 100% wrong. What I'm saying is, you're assuming that your version is 100% going to happen, and building further speculation upon that assumption. You're the one right now in the position of trying to defend your version as 100% accurate. Unless you can prove, beyond a doubt, that your version is 100% what's going to happen and my version, or any other potential version, is utterly impossible, you will be forced to concede that everything else you're basing upon this premise is therefore even less likely.

The Stone Shamans are, for the moment, refusing to believe that the Radiants are back. Perhaps the Everstorm will change their tune, but I don't think they'll accept the public explanation that Kaladin is a Radiant after hearing he killed Szeth. They'll see him using the powers of a Windrunner, and they'll know from reports and rumors that he was seen with a Blade. If they had anyone at all they trust get a look at the Blade Kaladin has, they'd know it was abnormally short and undecorated for a Shardblade, and they'll be suspicious.

You're missing my point. Almost no one saw him with the Honorblade, at least not close enough to make out a lot of details. He can hide the Honorblade somewhere, no problem, and start showing off Syl. She can look small and unornamented. She can look huge and grandiose. She can be a shield, or a stick, or maybe even a Shardcup.

Also, how exactly will they explain Shallan's Blade, or her use of Illumination and Transformation? Renarin using Illumination and Progression? Dalinar using Adhesion and Tension? They know they've got all those Honorblades.

I'm no sure which point we're arguing here. Obviously, the Shamanate will try to keep people from knowing the Radiants are back, because their rule seems to be, at least in part, based on the notion that the unassailable Truth is that the Radiants are gone forever. It's one thing they'll have to deal with, in addition to Kaladin having their Honorblade, Szeth coming after them, and the Everstorm that will shatter their country and decimate their population. There will be so much going on with the Shamanate that I suspect even "the Radiants are back" will be something put on the back burner.

Your analogy to Lift makes no sense to me. Here we have Lift, with two distinct magical investments producing distinct effects. Compare to Renarin, where we have a single known magical investment and only two magical effects. I consider the healing of his eyesight to be a minor effect of being invested, much like the Lopen's arm regrowing. This leaves only one magical effect: the visions (unless you think putting oneself in dangerous situations and spazzing out is the magical power of Truthwatchers). To me, the logical deduction is that the visions are related to his surges.

Kay... I've made my point twice now as plainly as I can, and you seem to be arguing against a somewhat different point which is not the one I'm making. I'm gonna try saying this again, and I ask you to read it with an open mind, and accept that my previous posts might have given you a mistaken impression. Pretend you never read them, and take this at face value, without trying to reconcile it with what you think I was saying before.

Right now, we only know of one arcane influence on Renarin. We have at least two other instances of Surgebinders also having a second arcane influence. Making the assumption that Renarin cannot possibly have a second influence we don't yet know about is premature. It's possible, though I've provided my evidence claiming I think it's unlikely. What I'm contending against, however, is the assumption you just stated, which is that until we are expressly told that there's a second influence, we are compelled to assume there is only one, and everything arcane about Renarin must therefore come from this one source.

Given that I feel his visions are unlikely to be from Surgebinding, and given that we know there are several as-yet unexplained phenomena all throughout Roshar, the most logical (but not by any means a definitive) conclusion is that his visions are the result of a second source, just like his Father's, just like Lift's capacity to metabolize food into Stormlight.

Incidentally... how do you know Renarin never went to the Nightwatcher? He does have a neurological condition. Just sayin'.

**Moogle** · December 13, 2014

They're not open... but you seem to be assuming that it's possible literally every single one of them sequestered themselves away with zero witnesses every single Highstorm without fail, and that no one ever commented on how odd that habit was. Dalinar was one man trying to hide his visions, the most politically powerful man in all Roshar, and not only was he unable to stop everyone talking about it when they couldn't see it, he wasn't even able to go two months without having a vision in front of his own men.

Or it could simply be that most Truthwatchers were aware of the fact that they were, in fact, Surgebinders and had spren they could talk to to learn what was happening. Renarin does not have the support network old Radiants would have had. They could have known not to share their visions if it was forbidden. It is also entirely possible that people did comment on their habit of having odd visions during highstorms, and it is also possible that they could control their visions and not spontaneously collapse during them if they tried not to. We simply do not know what the common man's opinion of Truthwatchers was. Here's the epigraph on it:

Now, as the Truthwatchers were esoteric in nature, their order being formed entirely of those who never spoke or wrote of what they did, in this lies frustration for those who would see their exceeding secrecy from the outside; they were not naturally inclined to explanation; and in the case of Corberon’s disagreements, their silence was not a sign of an exceeding abundance of disdain, but rather an exceeding abundance of tact.

All this says is that the Truthwatchers did not share their visions (if they indeed had them). Any assumptions on your part (that the Truthwatchers as a whole never learn to control their visions) are not things I'm arguing.

You bring up excellent points. Dalinar does have uncontrollable visions every Highstorm... and we are specifically and expressly told that this has nothing to do with Bondsmithing. Honor himself flat-out says, "I am using my Shardic powers to craft this hallucidiary and shove it into someone's brain." In fact, by the time Dalinar binds the Stormfather, the visions stop.

Kaladin rides the storm once, and he doesn't control it. It's an entirely new experience for him and we later learn he assumes at first that it's nothing more than a dream. The very second time he does it, he now knows it's not a dream, immediately takes control, and turns around to have a conversation with the Stormfather.

And who knows what's up with Shallan. We know from the Ars Arcanum that Lightweavers make spiritual connections to the things they craft art out of, and the two farsight drawings she makes are of people she's got some sort of connection to (Yalb she's drawn a few pictures of, and I presume she's got some sort of connection to the Herald upon whom her Order is based). Doesn't happen during a Highstorm... and she sorta does it by making the conscious decision to give up control... it's all just a weird situation.

So, to summarize, of the four Radiants you bring up (which doesn't include Lift or Ym, neither of which seem to have any manner of Vision whatsoever) one has Visions from a confirmed outside source, and one has Highstorm visions he's able to control by the very second time it happens. Based on this evidence, you see absolutely no choice but to assume that Renarin's visions, which he cannot control after 10 times despite the fact that he's got a spren who should be able to give him at least an idea that what's happening is part of his Surgebinding which flies in the face of an actual edict spoken by the Almighty himself and is most similar to a phenomenon happening to his father which we know for a fact has nothing to do with Surgebinding... is simply a common trait of all Truthwatchers, despite no historical record or any mention of it during the Point of View of the other Truthwatcher, Ym. And you literally cannot understand why I think it's merely possible, instead of a foregone conclusion.

I highly doubt the Stormfather could have given the visions to anyone who was not themselves a proto-Bondsmith. Gavilar is the only other known recipent, and he was basically prime Bondsmith material given he united an entire nation. I would say the visions are intrinsically connected to being a Radiant, there, and Dalinar was still incapable of stopping the visions. There's also Dalinar's dream, where he is mysteriously enough in an entirely black place where he knows where everything is anyways (matching Kaladin's similar highstorm experience when he was strung up). He says the following:

NO VISION WAS SENT THIS MORNING.

“Yes it was. I saw light and warmth.”

A SIMPLE DREAM. NOT OF ME, NOR OF GODS.

Curious. Dalinar could have sworn it felt the same way as the visions, if not stronger.

You're welcome to argue Dalinar isn't receiving Radiant visions, and I can't prove he is, but based on the evidence I'm guessing he probably he is.

Kaladin takes control of his highstorm dream after he knows he's a Radiant and that it's real and not just a dream. Renarin is not in the same position. Claiming that Renarin is special because he can't control his visions before he learned he was a Surgebinder is unreasonable.

To respond specifically on your point on Ym and Lift: we should not expect to have heard anything on visions from them. Kaladin receives precisely two highstorm dreams over the course of two books and tens of chapters written from his PoV. And note that they are during highstorms. Lift and Ym do not give us a PoV during a highstorm, and we only get one PoV from each of them, and neither is aware they're really Radiants (though Lift is a maybe). Any strange visions they had would be shrugged off as a dream, and not mentioned in their PoV. And even if they thought they were significant, we simply don't have enough PoVs from them.

As to Renarin: you are making tons of assumptions about what Glys knows and what Glys has told Renarin. Glys had very clearly not told Renarin that what's going on with him is related to his Surgebinding. Renarin had no clue. He thought he was cursed, not that he was a Radiant! He only learned the name of his order, the Truthwatchers, when talking to the other three Radiants and Glys presumably remembered at that point.

No Shardblade anywhere operates on the same principle as modern fabrials, per Navani. By this line of reasoning, I could say that Honorblades are metal and hemalurgic spikes are metal, so all you have to do is figure out where on your own body to stab the Honorblade and that's how you bond to it.

Except that Navani has a major category mistake going on. She thinks Shardblades are fabrials, not spren. Gems still interact with Shardblades (it's how you form forced bonds so you can turn them to mist), and gems also have properties when reacting with normal spren (you can bind them in one). They do obviously share some defining fundamentals, and Navani doesn't realize this because she's working off incorrect assumptions.

I'll agree we don't know exactly how you bond an Honorblade. I have not claimed otherwise in this thread, so I am confused again with your issue of me treating things "like fact". I outright say it is an assumption. I present the evidence for why I think it is likely to be simple, and then I say "I think it is likely". This is a common issue between you and me, so I'll look into what I'm doing wrong that I can correct, but I'm just not seeing how you're getting this impression from me that I think this is an unassailable fact.

As to the WoB: Brandon has outright clarified that you can bond an Honorblade. Here's the original WoB where Brandon apparently misunderstood the question:

Q: Can someone bond more than one Honorblade

A: Honorblade? You can't bond an Honorblade, though it can be given to you. Shardblades, however, come from a spren bond and it is possible to bond more than one.

He's since clarified multiple times:

Q: If someone is using an Honorblade, would they be able to bond a spren?

A: It is indeed possible. It does not block it. Good question. You do not have to bond Honorblades. Honorblades work with whoever holds them.

Q: You mentioned that human can’t bond Honorblades, but Nalan tells Szeth that his bond with his Honorblade has been broken. Can you clear this up?

A: Humans CAN bond Honorblades. There's a crucial difference between Honorblades and Shardblades. When you drop an Honorblade, it does not disappear, even if it has been bonded. A Shardblade will disappear when dropped.

(sources)

I don't know what more I can say on this topic. The first WoB was wrong and Brandon misunderstood the question and we later clarified it and we have multiple WoBs saying this. We have basically in-text confirmation through WoB that you can bond Honorblades through Nalan. The mere fact that Szeth can summon/unsummon his Honorblade as if it were a bonded Shardblade is basically confirmation in its own right that he has a bond.

We further know that all you have to do is hold an Honorblade to gain its powers, so the whole thing you're arguing (Honorblades could require special processes to bond) is fairly irrelevant. If the Stone Shamans see Kaladin flying while holding Szeth's Honorblade, I get the feeling they'd make a (wrong) logical leap from that.

So... your evidence is one man who has been alive longer than the Honorblades themselves have existed, and two assumptions. Your first assumption is that Nale is the sort of open, talkative boss who has a long history of sharing details with his subordinates, perhaps during team-building exercises at corporate retreates. And your second is, "Ghostbloods know about Surgebinding, ergo they must know that the Honorblades are real and also where they are." That doesn't seem at all a stretch to you? I'm not even going to address that point. At this point you're shoring up flagrant assumptions with more flagrant assumptions and acting confused when I don't follow you.

You said this: "Finally, recall that the Shamans have possessed these blades for something like 4 millenia (closer to 6 earth millenia) and no one but Diagram-Smart Taravangian has ever figured out they have them. So the Shamans themselves are proof of the capacity to keep Honorblades secret. Why would a group so incredibly skilled at keeping these specific Blades a secret assume that it's impossible for anyone to keep these Blades a secret?"

I was simply remarking that no, Taravangian is not the only one who figured out that the Shin have Honorblades. They're not secret. Nalan plainly figured it out, and in fact tons of other people very well might too. If I had any other point, I was insane at the time and I apologize if I worded things weirdly.

I have less information than him, I'm not as smart as him, and there's nothing preventing me from using deduction, induction, or even abduction. How on earth can you justify the claim that he'd only use inductive reasoning?

I don't care to argue the point since it's just semantics about inductive/deductive reasoning. I'm not arguing against the idea that Taravangian is capable of applying modus ponens, I was just arguing that basically all of Taravangian's work in the Diagram was based off of incomplete information and guesses, so it would naturally be inductive. Apologies for not spending more effort on this aspect of the discussion.

The same morale boost comes from telling everyone he's dead, and leaving it at that. Revealing that Kaladin himself did it serves no additional purpose. And there's plenty of reason to keep it a secret.

You mean that Dalinar, leader of a group that is widely distrusted and carries major cultural baggage with it, wouldn't leverage the fact that a Radiant stopped The Assassin in White, who has been terrorizing the world at large for quite some time in order to help public opinion with the Radiants? Forgive my skepticism on this point.

You're missing my point. Almost no one saw him with the Honorblade, at least not close enough to make out a lot of details.

If by "almost no one" you mean half of Bridge Four who he explicitly told that he got the Blade from Szeth and who got a good long look at it, and Navani + Dalinar + Shallan + co., and that's just on-screen post-battle. We don't know what he did with the Honorblade, or where it is as of book 3, or who saw it past that point. And, as noted, people are big on their Shardblade history. I don't know if it happened, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone took a sketch of the Honorblade. The days following the battle are incredibly poorly fleshed out in the book. We know next to nothing about them. Something something Brandon thought it would help the pacing. /grumble

Also, how exactly will they explain Shallan's Blade, or her use of Illumination and Transformation? Renarin using Illumination and Progression? Dalinar using Adhesion and Tension? They know they've got all those Honorblades.

Shallan's Blade? Could be a Shardblade to the Shamans. Her use of Surgebinding? Never happens in public, so the Shamans don't know about it. There might be a few reports from the scholars about her glowing, I guess? The Shamans could probably rationalize that away. Only the Ghostbloods and Dalinar know about her uses of Illumination. She's not exactly doing light shows in public (though I would be eager to see her bring Hoid's off-hand comment about a legion of chulls to life). Renarin? Nobody has seen him Surgebind, so far as we know. Dalinar? Has never done anything with his Surges on-screen and may be too busy to learn how to appropriately for a few weeks. The only time he inhales Stormlight is in private with the other Radiants.

My point is simply that the first report the Shamans get, ie. that Szeth is dead and a soldier holding onto his Blade was flying around in full view of the Alethi army, is going to make them think Kaladin is using the Honorblade rather than that he's a Surgebinder. Renarin hates the spotlight, Shallan has reasons to keep what she can do hidden and just let the common people think she has a Shardblade, and Dalinar doesn't know how to do more than inhale Stormlight thus far. Eventually, the Shamans will realize the Radiants are back, but I'm not convinced this will happen for quite some time, particularly considering the issues the Everstorm and Szeth will raise.

Edited December 13, 2014 by Ookla the Infinite

Stone shamans always watching

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