LG112 - Metacycle Nine: The RolePier Strikes Back

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

42 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

xino was literally not on the Shard during either of the turns where the kill didn’t happen, according to his member page “last online” stat. Though he was actually online about an hour ago, so you can’t verify that. My point is, it wasn’t a deliberate choice to “holster his kill”, whatever it was, since he was just unable to submit it.

By “holster the kill” I meant his Coinshot action in the Pseudogame

42 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You realize we would have gotten 2 elim flips if we’d won the bet, right? Unless they were exactly coco and Qian, we’d have won by now. Also, there’s absolutely no way we had 3 starting elims with 17 players. Conventional wisdom is 25% if the elims don’t have access to strong roles. This game has an alignment scanner but no defense against it, which is why I was considering 5 starting elims a while back.

I have to admit that in this point you are in the right. I hadn’t considered all that, and with it, yeah, the possibilities of having only three starting elims are extremely low

I still wanna kill you, or Dive

44 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I have to say, your frantic defense of a totally inactive player is really not doing much for me. It’s clear to me that you believe that exeing xino will make you lose the game. What’s not clear is why you believe that. All the evidence I have points to him as being elim.

I just don’t wanna walk down this path so calmly

And I know that if there’s a Convert, it’s between you and Dive, I think it’s you and if it’s you you wouldn’t be campaigning like this for Xino’s death

I could be wrong, in which case I will greatly apologize once this is over

48 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You realize that since those early cycles, there has been a conversion?

Yes

I was considering her as a starting elim here

I doubt the elims would pick someone largely inactive as their Convert

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I'm not going to bother convincing you, since you seem to be tunneling pretty hard. But how about a pragmatic argument, which I should have brought up earlier? If xino is village, we've already lost the game. He's not going to show up and vote, so we have 2 voting villagers against voting 2 elims, which is a tie, resulting in no execution. After the NK, we'd be down to 2-2 and unable to force an exe even if xino shows up.

So let's exe xino. If he does show up and vote, and you are convinced he's village, join his vote, or convince him to vote for me or whatever.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, I'm not going to bother convincing you, since you seem to be tunneling pretty hard. But how about a pragmatic argument, which I should have brought up earlier? If xino is village, we've already lost the game. He's not going to show up and vote, so we have 2 voting villagers against voting 2 elims, which is a tie, resulting in no execution. After the NK, we'd be down to 2-2 and unable to force an exe even if xino shows up.

So let's exe xino. If he does show up and vote, and you are convinced he's village, join his vote, or convince him to vote for me or whatever.

I’d actually argue the opposite for those reasons

If Xino is village, and he for some reason returns, he certainly will not vote for himself. So if the vote became 2-2 and both villagers (let’s say me and you) were voting him (which it probably won’t, I’m not too optimistic about Kit Kat’s return, I see this as a contest between you and me over Dive’s vote) he’d vote with the elims and we’d lose

I’m not sure if we’re understanding each other here, but if Xino is village, we’ve only already lost if we set ourselves to killing him

[Araris Valerian he/him]

19 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I’m not sure if we’re understanding each other here, but if Xino is village, we’ve only already lost if we set ourselves to killing him

If I'm elim and Xino is village you lose, because my teammate and I vote xino, you and the other villager vote for me, and nobody dies. I NK you and then exe whomever the next day.

If I'm village and xino is village, then we've lost because you've convinced yourself that I'm elim.

So in both worlds where xino is village, you lose the game.

Not to mention that you think Kit Kat is both an original villager and not a convert. So you think Divergent and I, the only two other active players, are elims. I'm not sure how you're going to convince Divergent to vote with you when your whole argument hinges on him being elim.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If I'm elim and Xino is village you lose, because my teammate and I vote xino, you and the other villager vote for me, and nobody dies. I NK you and then exe whomever the next day.

The only way that works is if your teammate in question is Dive, in which case, as I mentioned, I am utterly doomed

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Not to mention that you think Kit Kat is both an original villager and not a convert. So you think Divergent and I, the only two other active players, are elims. I'm not sure how you're going to convince Divergent to vote with you when your whole argument hinges on him being elim.

In the case that we kill you and there is a remaining elim, and Divergent helped kill you, I would not consider him the remaining elim as he could’ve just backed you up on Xino

[Araris Valerian he/him]

41 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

The only way that works is if your teammate in question is Dive, in which case, as I mentioned, I am utterly doomed

Your analysis of Kit Kat indicates she is village. The only world where Kit Kat is village and you win the game is the one where you exe xino today. Was your analysis worth anything? Like, why bother saying Kit Kat is village if you are just going to act like she isn’t?

[coco.pudding she/they]

4 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

You guys could have bet on the elims and this would be over by now

Well yeah but we wanted to win the bet

[Stardust She/Her]

1 minute ago, coco.pudding said:

Well yeah but we wanted to win the bet

Ouch

I mean I get why you did it but still

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

30 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Your analysis of Kit Kat indicates she is village. The only world where Kit Kat is village and you win the game is the one where you exe xino today. Was your analysis worth anything? Like, why bother saying Kit Kat is village if you are just going to act like she isn’t?

Huh?

I don’t get why that’s true

Okay nvm I see why that’s true

If Kit Kat is village, that means either Dive or Xino is elim, if it’s Xino we gotta kill him now and if it’s Dive then there’s no way I win unless Xino and Kit Kat spawn in cause Dive will vote with you

I would still rather go out like this, holding onto some slim hope

How have I been acting like Kit Kat isn’t village though?