Indigo Weasel Posted January 8 Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Octopus said: Getting me off the chopping block and explaining my suspicious actions during N1 And that’s worth potentially getting exed and losing a coinshot for the rest of the game? If you’re going to do that, do it when it matters, there’s no need to give that out unless you need to. As far as I’m aware, I’m the only person who’s voted you today. And that was because you claimed Coinshot.
Scarlet Octopus Posted January 8 Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said: And that’s worth potentially getting exed and losing a coinshot for the rest of the game? If you’re going to do that, do it when it matters, there’s no need to give that out unless you need to. As far as I’m aware, I’m the only person who’s voted you today. And that was because you claimed Coinshot. ._. I'll write a note detailed argument a to why i'm not lying about my role in the morning, but I need sleep.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 8 Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said: So this is based on my earlier assumption that the attempt on killing Beagle was on purpose. So based on that, something Beagle did or said must have caused the Elims to try and kill him.(we know it was Elims because it says the saboteurs attempted to kill him, but failed) So, there was only a few posts to go on, but the things that were consistent across it all was suspicion on Axolotl, Kangaroo, and Elephant. Now, obviously Beagle was right about Kangaroo, but that can’t have been the reason because Kangaroo was outed D1, and so there’s no reason to kill for that. That leaves Elephant and Axolotl. Elephant V!leaned Ado, but that doesn’t mean that he’s Elim. Axolotl Voted Kangaroo, but changed it to DF later, and said the original vote was a poke vote. While Axolotl did vote Kangaroo, it was changed, and so Axolotl didn’t vote Kangaroo when it mattered. E!lean on Axolotl, slight V!lean on Elephant. I think Axolotl voted Kangaroo to distanced themself, but then changed so it didn’t matter. However, I’m not voting Axolotl because I feel more certain about someone else. So… I don’t like that. Claiming Lurcher doesn’t mean anything, it’s easy to fake. As for Octopus, if they’re telling the truth about being a coinshot, that is an absolute terrible move. Revealing Coinshot means that the Elims know who to target next Night. And while Octopus could be trusting that one of the people who have claimed Lurcher would protect him, as I mentioned, Lurcher is an easy role to fake. Octo is basically relying on people to protect them, and doesn’t even gain advantage for it, there is no reason to reveal as coinshot. And, if Octo is Elim, this could be an attempt to get one of the lurchers(assuming they’re telling the truth) to waste a lurch on him. Octopus was also one of the three people to vote DF right after one another, and I’ve already done analysis on that. Overall, I think Octopus is an Elim, and they’re a better target than Axolotl because that was based on the assumption that the hit wasn’t random. Which is could be(sorry I took a little longer to write this, I had to add the part about Octopus after Iguana posted) Levin was grateful for the Weasel for opening this discussion. It would be good to talk more and consider as many options as possible, so that the passengers could have as much of an informed decision going to who they would be throwing overboard today. "There were certain things that the Crocodile and Kangaroo said and did that dissuaded me from being suspicious of the Axolotl and Octopus at the moment," he commented. On 1/6/2026 at 9:04 AM, Mauve Crocodile said: @Melon Dingo Adonalsium Storming Reborn sighs deeply Fool, that Sphere you so Recklessly Smashed could have Sustained you for One Threnodite Month. Dost thee not Recognize Unkeyed Light when thou Holds it within the Palm of thy Hand?? Thus Pearls are Thrown before Swine and Trampled underfoot. @Mint Heron They turn to Zense, and there are tear tracks down their cheeks, perhaps the first sign the crew has ever seen on their face of emotions that aren't anger or pride. Zense... I Confess. A Song I have not Heard in a Lifetime... You bring an Old Soul to the Brink of Tears. You have my Deepest Gratitude. Let these Tears you see Shining in My Eyes be a Commendation to Thee and Thy Instrument for as long as the Cosmere endures. He straightens. Now. To Work! How do we e'en Compress the Length of a Day into a small Speech? I shall Endeavor to Look at Entrances and Vote Patterns to try and Form a General Overall Impression. It is a Daunting Task, but Adonalsium Storming Reborn shall Give into the Cosmere Nothing but their Very Best Effort! Crew are Listed in Order of Appearance. (Okay I tried to write in character but this is already a big complicated post and the random capitalization makes it harder so I'm just talking normally you're welcome everyone. Current system I'm working with is starting e! and changing with proven helpfulness, so if I'm reading neutral, I'm assigning e! lean. Reads (Editing because its so long I'm putting it in a spoiler box) Reveal hidden contents Taupe Gecko: H.E.A.R.T.H. a somewhat lazy robot. e!lean 1. votes on me for Rp reasons 2. votes on Dragonfly for not being very clear. General thoughts: @Taupe Gecko I don't actually begrudge genuine business, but asking other people to do vote counts and include reasoning for trains is a bit much if you're not also willing to engage and put in effort. Still, now that I have put in this effort, any thoughts? Ivory Dragonfly: Echo. They Seem able to only Mimic, Unable to Utter Words of their Own. v!lean 1. Votes on Zebra, Guess. 2. Switches to Octopus for Voting on Meerkat on a guess. 3. Changes vote to Toucan. General thoughts: I actually really like @Ivory Dragonfly. They're really putting themselves in a corner here with their chosen cosmetic role. I'm with Heron in that they are genuinely giving thoughts and reads. We'll need more soon, but it's no reason to vote them out yet. I do think the switch to Octopus was a little weird given that it was a poke vote, and I want to hear your reasons for voting Toucan? Scarlet Octopus: Chiji Kaido, Ironeyes follower. e!lean 1. Votes on Meerkat, a Guess. 2. Annoyed at Dragonfly for Seeming Defensive of Meerkat by Switching to them. 3. Switches to Dragonfly after Meerkat Shows Up. General Thoughts: Honestly it's kind of a blank here. I think their annoyance at Dragonfly switching to them is justified. Still e!lean for now because I'm reading neutral. @Scarlet Octopus I respect your vote, is there anyone else you don't like right now? Sunburst Toucan: Ophelia Desci (Forgetful) e!lean 1. Votes on Elephant, A Guess. Drawing a blank here so e!lean. @Sunburst Toucan are you keeping your vote on elephant? Sage Kangaroo: Isabel Kho Lin (Silverist) v!lean 1. Votes on Myself, RP. 2. Votes on Dragonfly after Octopus' Switch. Has been pretty helpful in keeping up with the thread and posting vote counts. Their vote switch didn't come off as weird to me because of previous rp with Octopus about Dragonfly's switch. @Sage Kangaroo What are your thoughts on other players? perhaps Octopus themselves? Violet Axolotl: Fletcher (Past Lives)e!lean 1. Appears Early, but Does not Vote. 2. Votes on Kangaroo after Iguana does, RP. Seems pretty opportunistic to me. Doesn't even really give a reason for switching. @Violet Axolotl I'm adding to the pressure, I suppose. What do you feel about Kangaroo, and do you have any other suspects? Indigo Weasel: Third of the Tide (Liar)e!lean 1. Votes on Dragonfly, RP/Guess. 2. Explains Later it was a Poke Vote and they will Analyze based on Responses. Neutral until @Indigo Weasel come back and tell us if they learned anything. You did offer! Magenta Albatross: Rane Cauthon (Gambler)e!lean 1. Appears, no Votes. Wants to Gamble. 2. Votes on Meerkat, RP/Dice Roll. 3. Likes Heron, me, Kangaroo. I somewhat agree with Heron that there's some difference between a poke vote that's random and just intended to see if they talk/anything happens and announcing you're voting based off dice. There's even less pressure there than a regular poke vote. @Magenta Albatross Do you have any more solid thoughts right now? Melon Dingo: Stormseeker the Wise (Returned) A Little Stupid v!lean 1. Votes on Iguana for Not Being Here. 2. Posts Reads with Explicit Likes and Dislikes Likes: Kangaroo, Heron, Me. Dislikes: Axolotl, Iguana. 3. Votes Axolotl for being active and Rping but only voting right after someone else votes on Kangaroo. Analysis and reads are good. Gave an explanation for their vote. No questions right now. Quartz Zebra: Finch. Rude, has a Awakened Box that Judges Footwear. v!lean 1. Does not Vote in First Appearance. 2. Votes on Me, Guess. 3. Clarifies after it was a Pressure Test and I Reacted Too Defensively. As said above, I respect the pressure voting tactic. The voting and more importantly the follow up is sound, I'll give you that. I just want to be know I'm being judged for my actual gameplay and not my RP. Otherwise, @Quartz Zebra I want to hear if you have thoughts on any other players besides me, please. Saffron Iguana: Arnold Johnson (obsessively Neat) e!lean 1. Votes Kangaroo for RP. 2. Asks Meerkat why they're Suspicious of Trains. Not really giving us anything. The first vote is fine, the question feels like fluff because there isn't really a follow up. @Saffron Iguana any follow up? Any non-Rp votes? Salmon Meerkat: Dugh Thomas (Arrogant) e!lean 1. Votes Dragonfly for Not Making Sense. 2. Switches Vote to Leave Train, votes Kangaroo for Switching Votes. Entered with a few votes already on them, so they vote for the person who first voted them. Then when a train began forming on Dragonfly, jumped off and votes on Kangaroo for joining their vote? It feels jumpy, but I understand being weirded out by a train forming unopposed. Still neutral for now so e!lean. @Salmon Meerkat Do you actually still suspect Dragonfly, and would you have stayed on them if not for two more votes following yours? Sapphire Elephant: Klin (Merchant) e!lean 1. Appears, Posts Vote Count but Does Not Vote. 2. After much conversation, votes Meerkat for being too willing to change votes. Lot of Rp, enjoying it. Vote has reasoning. Not really giving me much to go on though. Does make a distinction between Kangaroo and Meerkat in that they think Meerkat was trying not to draw attention to themselves? @Sapphire Elephant What are your thoughts beyond Kangaroo and Meerkat? Onyx Flamingo: Frisk (Past Lives) e!lean Appears. Mainly just asks for catchup. Has not voted or given any game-related thoughts. @Onyx Flamingo I've done my best to summarize my thoughts and major happeninsg. care to make a vote now? Oxblood Beagle: Levin (Past Lives) v!lean 1. Appears. 2. Votes Axolotl for RP. Later makes a Very Good and Detailed Summation Which I Like Quite a Lot. 3. Votes on Elephant for perceived hypocrisy re: dragonfly and meerkat Likes: Crocodile, Heron, Dingo, Dragonfly, Octopus Dislikes: Kangaroo, Axolotl, Elephant. I genuinely really appreciated your summary. I was already doing my own but yours was concise and formatted to read well and showed a flow through the day. Your vote reasoning is also pretty solid. In conclusion, I like you. No questions right now. Mint Heron: Zense (Ship's Musician) v!lean 1. Appears. Does some Analysis. Votes on Dingo. Asks many Questions of Many Players. 2. Later Switches Vote to Axolotl without Much reason. Another player I really like just because of how much they're asking questions and making other players answer them. I wish they'd give some reasoning for the votes they're making, but its effort being put into making people talk more than just RP, which I appreciate. no questions right now. Also excuse me for giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming you wrote the song! (joke) @Plum Rhinoceros @Pearl Chameleon @Opal Lion Not here. Adolnasium this is a monster of a post. Getting there. In conclusion, 1. Actively like right now are Dragonfly, Heron, Beagle, Zebra, Dingo, and Kangaroo. 2. Passively neutral reads on Octopus, Gecko, Meerkat, Weasel if they come back and talk more. 3. Actively find unhelpful so far Flamingo, Iguana, Gecko 4. Would vote on Elephant, Axolotl, Albatross. I think they kind of strike the same theme in that they're active and Rping but not saying much game-related but then suddenly being willing to join forming trains. I did a quick glance in my previous post about those who were the second to hop on existing votes, and Kangaroo and Meerkat were on the list too, but they at least have been willing to answer questions which moved them up to neutral or liked. 5. just not enough of a presence Toucan, Rhinoceros, Chameleon, Lion I think, at this juncture, I don't want Dragonfly dead, and I don't want to start a new train. I'm willing to move my vote from Meerkat to Axolotl, bringing them closer to Dragonfly. Current count: Mauve crocodile:(1) zebra Salmon meerkat:(2) albatross, elephant Sapphire Elephant:(2) toucan, beagle Scarlet octopus:(1) dragonfly Ivory dragonfly:(4) kangaroo, octopus, weasel, gecko Sage kangaroo:(3) iguana, axolotl, meerkat Violet axolotl:(3) dingo, heron, crocodile "The Crocodile motioned for a shift in the accusations to the Axolotl. I feel that he wouldn't direct attention to a teammate at that stage when it looked like the other passengers weren't really as invested towards throwing out the Dragonfly, and it would have been more likely for a different passenger to go," he remarked. "Additionally, he did back the Kangaroo for very flimsy reasons and tried to paint them as an innocent passenger, so to me, it didn't feel like he was someone who would have thrown a teammate to the wolves, as early as it was." On 1/6/2026 at 9:20 AM, Sage Kangaroo said: (Idk abt other players very much I kinda trust everyone but I trust octopus quite a bit I think their reads have made sense and same with their votes, also us silverists have to stick together) "As for the Octopus, the Kangaroo interestingly only mentioned the Octopus as the person that they trusted. I'm not sure if the Kangaroo really would have wanted for the two of them to be associated so closely," he added. "If they truly were allies, it would have been more likely that they would throw other innocent passengers in the mix rather than putting a singular one on the spotlight."
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Okay, so apparently I accidentally drew a load of suspicion onto myself with my suspicions of Axolotl. Great. Noted: don't be stupid. Or unjustified. My vote for now is on Scarlet Octopus, mostly for all the aforementioned reasons about claiming Coinshot. Perhaps they're hoping a Lurcher will protect them? If so, they're drawing a lot of attention, mostly negative. I would guess they're either an Elim trying to throw us, or possibly a villager who let their role slip in PMs and now needs protection? Anyway, that's my vote for now.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said: Okay, so apparently I accidentally drew a load of suspicion onto myself with my suspicions of Axolotl. Great. Noted: don't be stupid. Or unjustified. Levin approached the Toucan, who had pointed their finger at the Axolotl at an inappropriate time, and thus, had caused some of the others to become more wary of them. "What made you suspect the Axolotl? And do you still maintain that position?" he inquired. "Are there other people you trust or distrust at the moment? And why do you think so? Edited January 8 by Oxblood Beagle
Mint Heron Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) Catching up between work but I asked the GM and y'all should know a kandra flips as the role they acquired. Just keep that in mind when looking at the distro. RE: Weasel's point, I disagree but think Weasel is channelling off-site meta in that I've seen it being played with the v!CS claiming before in SE. Arguably Octo was claim-happy but it's not something I necessarily find out of parameters for this site. Edited to add: It's interesting the GMs changed the rules because Tyrian Lurchers were not immortal even in the earliest version of this particular ruleset. I understand why but... I find it very suggestive. Anyway sorry. I do feel bad for not RPing as much and low key feel I'm a major part of the pivot off RPing especially in D1 but zero brain cells left for it. Just gotta finish the deadline. It is probably a bit arrogant and foolish to just kinda...camp on Heron N1's credences but I don't got the time to sit down and do focused analysis rather than one-off things until Sat so I just gotta live with it ig. E2DT: 3 hours ago, Sunburst Toucan said: I would guess they're either an Elim trying to throw us, or possibly a villager who let their role slip in PMs and now needs protection? ok but if ur actually convinced the villager possibility is one, then why are u joining the train? u don't seem very committed to this vote? E3DT: 6 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said: So based on that, something Beagle did or said must have caused the Elims to try and kill him.(we know it was Elims because it says the saboteurs attempted to kill him, but failed) Forgot this. Have you considered that the simple reason for a Beagle shot might in fact be: A. Lurcher immortality worries (assumes the Elims weren't aware Lurchers aren't actually immortal), and B. Beagle being the person who looked the most unambiguously Village off the EoD? Back to work, if I show up before IDK like 3 hours or something someone yell at me thanks. I'm better these days but earlier this cycle was...unwise. Edited January 8 by Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 8 Posted January 8 While Levin was still suspicious of the Saffron Iguana, he wanted to hear more from the Plum Rhinoceros. He remembered that the Rhinoceros had promised to contribute more once the night came, but he had seemingly disappeared and had yet to deliver on that. 8 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said: I have to make a short post, but I will be back tomorrow. Gecko supporting Dragonfly seemed weird to me, and I'd like to investigate that possible team. As he patiently waited, he heard the Meerkat suggest a different idea from the ones others had brought forth to the table. "I'm curious to hear more about this," he said. The Meerkat didn't yet have the time to present his case, so Levin decided to explore the vessel. He didn't have much of an opportunity to do it before. He had been busy with other matters, which caused him to spend most of his time in his room facing papers and only having the small glimpse of the ocean accommodated by the round window in his room. The merchant was still selling his wares, though he looked a little deflated because the ruckus last night made the passengers more wary of being out and about. There was, what he assumed to be, an engineer in the engine room he came across. They were doing something...? But he was never quite well-versed with mechanics, tools, and the like. He figured the engineer was one of the reasons why things were still up and running despite all the commotions in the previous days. He saw a robot and was that tears in their eyes? Now that was an unusual sight for sure. As he walked across the vessel, he was grateful to be alive another day. Yes, he knew that death for him didn't necessarily mean the end of everything. After all, he carried the memories of several previous lives. He had been a teacher, an investigator, a doctor, a mercenary, and so many more. He had lived in luxury and had also struggled finding food to eat everyday. He had seen kingdoms rise and fall. But even then, each life of his was precious. There was always something new and unique offered by the experiences that could only be derived from the background that he would start from. And so, he was determined to push on for as long as he could muster. May good fortune continue to follow him.
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Can someone give a votecount? I'm reading through the D1 posts, and I don't like how Octopus is sounding. I don't completely understand why DF thought they were an elim D1 but Octopus' defense didn't sound like it came from a villager to me On 1/5/2026 at 5:58 AM, Scarlet Octopus said: An interesting switch, seeming overly defensive of someone they would have no idea of their alignment. "Awfully suspicious." Chiji muttered, now taking a seat in the mess hall. One again, Ironeyes had given him an opening. "I will remember this." He whispered. "Ironeyes will remember this." On 1/5/2026 at 7:39 AM, Scarlet Octopus said: "I am suspicious of Echo." Their grip on their amulet tightens, "I voted someone at random. And they saw that and switched to voting me, I don't know why, but I think it was as a defense for another traitor. Otherwise, it would be a random vote switch brought on by nothing." Just from vibes this feels very elim-y to me.
Taupe Gecko Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Alright it's been a while but I'm here now 19 hours ago, Mint Heron said: I need to tell you about AG2 at some point ...I think it was AG2, it could very well have been AG1. Knowing AG1 is a crazy flex Alright, actual analysis: So we're working with the following VC: Violet Axolotl (4); Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Scarlet Octopus (1); Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1); Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2); Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (5); Taupe Gecko, Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1); Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (2); Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus Indigo Weasel (1); Sage Kangaroo No Vote (3): Opal Lion, Plum Rhino, Pearl Chameleon Green players are those who played a crucial role in the Killing of Kanga plus Octopus cause they presumably took out Croc. For all purposes, however, the true VC (the one the elims were prepared for) is this one: Violet Axolotl (6): Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile, Ivory Dragonfly Scarlet Octopus (1): Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1): Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2): Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (2): Salmon Meerkat, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (3): Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus, Sage Kangaroo Indigo Weasel (1): Taupe Gecko Considering how long this stood, I'm pretty certain the elims were satisfied with it, so I'm willing to soft-clear Axolotl. Additionally, if Axolotl were truly evil, then Croc's vote this late in the game - especially considering there was never a retraction - would be super weird. Aaaaand I really don't know. My brain is kinda dead right now. Gimme a while to reread the cycle so far and I'll get back to you (this is what I wrote up yesterday). In the meanwhile, @A Jo in the Bush, can we get an updated VC? Also, once again, please: EVERYONE READ THE RUSTING WRITEUPS I'm starting to get tired
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 8 Posted January 8 20 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: Alright it's been a while but I'm here now Knowing AG1 is a crazy flex Alright, actual analysis: So we're working with the following VC: Violet Axolotl (4); Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Scarlet Octopus (1); Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1); Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2); Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (5); Taupe Gecko, Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1); Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (2); Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus Indigo Weasel (1); Sage Kangaroo No Vote (3): Opal Lion, Plum Rhino, Pearl Chameleon Green players are those who played a crucial role in the Killing of Kanga plus Octopus cause they presumably took out Croc. For all purposes, however, the true VC (the one the elims were prepared for) is this one: Violet Axolotl (6): Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile, Ivory Dragonfly Scarlet Octopus (1): Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1): Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2): Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (2): Salmon Meerkat, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (3): Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus, Sage Kangaroo Indigo Weasel (1): Taupe Gecko Considering how long this stood, I'm pretty certain the elims were satisfied with it, so I'm willing to soft-clear Axolotl. Additionally, if Axolotl were truly evil, then Croc's vote this late in the game - especially considering there was never a retraction - would be super weird. Aaaaand I really don't know. My brain is kinda dead right now. Gimme a while to reread the cycle so far and I'll get back to you (this is what I wrote up yesterday). In the meanwhile, @A Jo in the Bush, can we get an updated VC? Also, once again, please: EVERYONE READ THE RUSTING WRITEUPS I'm starting to get tired I'd forgotten about the Coinshot claim Huh I don't know how to explain that Octopus Anyways it is past midnight now and I haven't read yet so I'm going to go read.
Scarlet Octopus Posted January 8 Posted January 8 The biggest reason to know that I really am a coinshot is my first post, which was posted a minute after this thread came up. If I were an Elim, I wouldn't have known that another Elim was going to be killed, and I couldn't have claimed as early as I did. Reason two. Claiming today gets me definitely off the chopping block today, which, as you are so fond of saying, I'm no use to you dead. I'd be dead if I got exed, which seemed quite likely, considering that I had no way other than my role to explain what I said N1. Reason three. No one has disputed me at all. There has been no counterclaim on thread. I do suspect you got PMed by an Elim counterclaiming. Or are yourself an Elim. As for now. Iguana Toucan your reasoning for joining the countertrain seems weak.
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 8 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Ah yeah Wait do flavor roles apply to PMs? Only if you decide they do. 22 hours ago, Mint Heron said: @A Jo in the Bush / @The Unknown Medallion Incidentally, what's your ruling for if a Rioter tries to Riot their own vote? Does it still disappear? Yeah, it works as a self-soothe Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (3): Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (2): Sunburst Toucan, Indigo Weasel Saffron Iguana (1): Mint Heron Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly Someone @ me if this is wrong, but I've carefully checked it, and i think it's right.
Taupe Gecko Posted January 8 Posted January 8 13 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said: "Do you have something in mind?" Klin asked. H.E.A.R.T.H hesitated. "Perhaps... I can tell you a story?" It had been another charging session of memories. H.E.A.R.T.H had lived a second life now - a life in damnation, a life of punishment. Perhaps it would be good to share the visions that haunted it still. 9 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said: Overall, I think Octopus is an Elim, and they’re a better target than Axolotl because that was based on the assumption that the hit wasn’t random. Which is could be(sorry I took a little longer to write this, I had to add the part about Octopus after Iguana posted) Worth noting the high risk of an Octopus kill. Let's say Octopus is elim, the odds of which I see relatively low but non-zero: we killed an elim, great. No let's say Octopus is village, the odds of which I see as very high: we just killed our Coinshot. Not good, at all, especially since I'm leaning towards an elim Coinshot at the moment. Alright, more analysis: Here's a summary of D2 (meaningful stuff) so far: Octopus claims Coinshot. Heron does a lot of good stuff, votes Iguana as main suspicion. Matches up with their D2 reads. Beagle shows up, gives some RP. Dragonfly implies Beagle protection, congratulates Octopus. Dingo shows up, teases Heron, susses Flamingo. Dragonfly votes Rhino. I vote Iguana as temp accusation for potential distancing from Kanga Zebra shows up, RPs, nothing else Flamingo shows up, RPs, nothing else Toucan shows up, RPs, says posting little is good strategy to avoid suspicion, posts little Heron becomes our party mentor Toucan implies being vanilla Violet Axolotl shows up, RPs, no reads Weasel says they plan on analysing Beagle’s past posts. Weasel, how’s that going? Octopus posts reads, votes Iguana. - v!Axolotl - v!Gecko (aww, thanks) - Neutral Toucan - Neutral Elephant - Neutral Meerkat - e!Iguana. Doesn’t say why. - Neutral Zebra - v!Beagle - Neutral Flamingo - v!Heron - e!Dingo - v!Dragonfly - v!Weasel Albatross shows up, says nothing Beagle votes Iguana without clear reasoning Iguana does superficial analysis, votes Toucan for night vote on Axl Zebra once again RPs with no analysis. I vote Toucan to spread out pressure. Meerkat comes after me for supporting Dragonfly. Weasel presses Iguana. I feel like a lot of people here really aren’t on the same page about established stuff. Ooh, Weasel did look at Beagle’s past posts. Susses Elephant and Axolotl (so for me, just Elephant), and votes Octopus for weird claim. Toucan votes Octopus for claiming Coinshot reasons. Beagle switches vote to Rhino for not fulfilling contribution promises. I actually find that slightly v!leaning; I think an elim is far more inclined to not let themselves get distracted by real life. Elephant votes Octopus. Guys I’m not liking this. After my short analysis, Elephant retracts Octopus vote, saying they didn’t realize Coinshot claim. What I get from this: First, Dingo has been having quite the thread presence for someone who has not given a single read. Second, I don't like the pileup on Octopus at all. I have to say Elephant is gaining a little bit of cred for that reaction, but once again, y'all READ. LET'S ALL GET ON THE SAME PAGE. PLEASE. Anyways I think I'm gonna follow my gut and switch from Toucan to Weasel, and I'll have to look again at Weasel D1 but I'm not liking their D2 so far. I disagree with the fact that Beagle needed anything more than a Kanga suspicion to become an elim threat, and I don't like the attacks on Octopus. Will be back with more.
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 8 Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: Octopus claims Coinshot. Really am a coinshot? Quote An elim Coinshot ? Violet Axolotl No use Dead. Quote LET'S ALL GET ON THE SAME PAGE ... Weasel The chopping block today?
Taupe Gecko Posted January 8 Posted January 8 14 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: Really am a coinshot? Huh? 14 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: ? Violet Axolotl No use Dead. Violet Axolotl is no use dead? Has Axolotl claimed Coinshot? I'm confused What I'm saying is the distro I think is most likely is elims have a coinshot and village gets a couple lurchers to compensate 15 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: The chopping block today? Perhaps I need to reread D1 (which I know I said I wasn't gonna do but honestly my options are either that or treat this as C1 which is just foolish) Also Dragonfly I apologize for any hate I gave you early in the game
Mint Heron Posted January 8 Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Taupe Gecko said: Violet Axolotl is no use dead? DF is saying killing Axl as an E!CS clears the CW. Good catch DF. As an E!CS you never wanna do it because Village is sussing Axl and going into D2 with Axl's alignment unsure and the possibility of people revisiting it is good. Conversely it is true E!CS needs to make a conceivable pro-Village shot but e.g. Iguana, Octo, Rhino, Weasel just going off yesterday on the assumption these are Villagers are pro-Village shots. There's no especial reason to do Axl. Which...fair point. I guess they could be afraid of the Lurch and gambling on Axl not self-protecting but IDK. I don't think there is an E!CS but this is weak instinct because Jo announced Lurchers no longer can do the same target twice in a row. In this game Lurchers die to overspill - CS + Spiked kill = Lurcher dead. In an E!CS world one need never claim, just double-tap or Lurcher dodge. But I've been burned too many times by Tyrian assumptions so I am refusing to take this to the bank until we see more data. In a high kandra % game, this might also be a reason to rescind the targeting as Villagers (just numerical odds) acquire soft immortality one after another. Edit: I think that DF is suggesting Octo could be MB which is fair but it's what Octo claimed so it's what we gotta roll with for now. Immaterial anyway because MB in this ruleset cannot reroll a metal until all eight are done.
Taupe Gecko Posted January 8 Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: 14 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: Violet Axolotl is no use dead? DF is saying killing Axl as an E!CS clears the CW. Good catch DF. As an E!CS you never wanna do it because Village is sussing Axl and going into D2 with Axl's alignment unsure and the possibility of people revisiting it is good. Conversely it is true E!CS needs to make a conceivable pro-Village shot but e.g. Iguana, Octo, Rhino, Weasel just going off yesterday on the assumption these are Villagers are pro-Village shots. There's no especial reason to do Axl. Which...fair point. I guess they could be afraid of the Lurch and gambling on Axl not self-protecting but IDK. OOOOOOOOH Okay I get it I doubt village has two Coinshots however, so I'm assuming the Axl attack most likely came from a village Mistborn Also, I've been wondering for a while, what's CW?
Mint Heron Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) *so 7 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: OOOOOOOOH Okay I get it I doubt village has two Coinshots however, so I'm assuming the Axl attack most likely came from a village Mistborn Also, I've been wondering for a while, what's CW? Sorry this should read: "going off on the assumption there is at least one Villager in them." It's mostly just Weasel and Octo I think are Village atm though I also agree with Ele I didn't like Octo's D1 and low-key wanna give Ele some V cred for this take. Rhino is idk and I need to have the time to relook Iguana but dislike Iguana's D1. CW = countertrain/counterwagon. The point is that knowing the alignment of the main CWs is very helpful for vote analysis because knowing DF/Axl/Kanga was V/E/E changes how we analyse it from a V/V/E world. It tells us about where the PoEs are and what the likely Elik disposition was. For this reason sometimes people like to just flip the more suspicious CW. I used to be like that but Aman convinced me a couple years ago that we don't need to do that. Edit: One of the two shots came from a MB let's put it that way. Edited January 8 by Mint Heron
Taupe Gecko Posted January 8 Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Mint Heron said: *so Sorry this should read: "going off on the assumption there is at least one Villager in them." It's mostly just Weasel and Octo I think are Village atm though I also agree with Ele I didn't like Octo's D1 and low-key wanna give Ele some V cred for this take. Rhino is idk and I need to have the time to relook Iguana but dislike Iguana's D1. CW = countertrain/counterwagon. The point is that knowing the alignment of the main CWs is very helpful for vote analysis because knowing DF/Axl/Kanga was V/E/E changes how we analyse it from a V/V/E world. It tells us about where the PoEs are and what the likely Elik disposition was. For this reason sometimes people like to just flip the more suspicious CW. I used to be like that but Aman convinced me a couple years ago that we don't need to do that. Edit: One of the two shots came from a MB let's put it that way. Uhhh what's a PoE?
Mint Heron Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) E2dt: Sorry. Countertrain is just any train numerically in position to displace the lead train. Thus, the Weasel train on D1 wasn't a CW, the Axl train was. E3dt: Slightly squinting at Gecko for the qn given I feel he's seen it before but: PoE = process of elimination. We use it to refer to both the actual reasoning process and the resulting suspect pool, i.e. "Iguana is in PoE." Edited January 8 by Mint Heron
Quartz Zebra Posted January 8 Posted January 8 SUBJECT: FULL SYSTEM DIAGNOSTIC Alright, listen up! Since H.E.A.R.T.H. thinks I’m just polished brass and no gears, I’ve spent the morning checkin' every bolt and wire on this rust-bucket. Here’s how the "Parts" are lookin' from the engine room floor. The Defective Pile Chiji: This "Coinshot" claim is leakier than a screen-door submarine. They shouted it out just as the mob was gatherin’ with pitchforks. In my experience, if a part screams "I’m essential!" right before you toss it in the scrap, it’s usually lyin’. Johnson: Johnson, you’re spendin’ all your time polishin’ the hull while the engine’s on fire. Superficial analysis and "fluff" questions don’t catch Saboteurs. You’re actin’ like a distraction designed to keep us from lookin’ at the real leaks. Ophelia: Claimin' "Vanilla" as a strategy to stay quiet? That’s just called "hidin'." You’ve been switchin’ votes like a loose transmission, and I don’t trust a gear that won’t lock into place. The Sturdy Pile Levin: Proposin' the Kanga flip and survivin’ a Koloss-toss to the bulkhead? That’s some high-grade alloy. If Beagle’s a traitor, then this whole ship is already at the bottom of the ocean. H.E.A.R.T.H: You’re pushy, but you’re right to be. You’re lookin’ for the rattle, and you called me out for slacking. That’s the kind of maintenance this crew needs. Zense: Doin' the heavy liftin' and actin' as the party mentor. Even if you're a bit bossy, you're actually movin' the ship forward. The Questionable Parts Third of the Tide: I like that you did the homework on Beagle, but pullin' for an Octopus exe based on "weirdness" is a coin-toss. I'm keepin' an eye on your frequency. Kiln: You retracted that Octopus vote real fast when you realized the claim. Either you’re a cautious villager or a Saboteur who realized they were jumpin’ on a messy wagon too early. Frisk & Rane: You’re both makin’ noise, but I ain’t seen any spark yet. Don't make me use the mallet to see if you're hollow. I’m keepin’ my wrench pointed at Chiji today. Let’s see if that "Coin" they’re hidin’ is actually a Saboteur’s token. Stay safe, and don't touch my doodads! -Finch
Scarlet Octopus Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) Looks like, despite revealing myself not to get exed today, I'm still going to get exed if this continues. What's the vote count at? Edit: Vote switching from Toucan to Weasel Edited January 8 by Scarlet Octopus
Taupe Gecko Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Partially through D1 review and I probably won't be finished for a while cause I'mma have to take a break cause my cousins are coming again but I'mma rest a vote on Dingo for now Also Octopus came to me with a theory that the train against them could be somewhat coordinated via PMs. Guys, if this is the case, please tell us. Village transparency is key; the only people who should be conspiring action behind others' backs are the elims.
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) 8 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Levin approached the Toucan, who had pointed their finger at the Axolotl at an inappropriate time, and thus, had caused some of the others to become more wary of them. "What made you suspect the Axolotl? And do you still maintain that position?" he inquired. "Are there other people you trust or distrust at the moment? And why do you think so? OK Here is my justification for, however briefly, voting for Axoltotl: I don't have one. I was trying to change my vote off of Elephant from the start, which was a poke vote so felt unjustified. I did a terribe job at that, and tried to show I wasn't suspicious of Elephant by being suspicious of someone else. I was trying to avoid drawing attention to myself (see previous point about posting little seeming a decent way to do that at the moment), so wanted to pick the least suspicious person to change my vote to. I concluded it might be the person a lot of people were already suspicious of? Apparently, I picked wrong. I still don't trust Octopus - again, largely for the pointless Coinshot claim. To dispute their three reasons: one, surprise is easy to feign. Two, there's little evidence to support their claim. Three, I don't see the point of another Coinshot counterclaiming (if there is one) as it would only make them a target as well (although that could well just be poor reasoning on my part). Edited January 8 by Sunburst Toucan
Indigo Weasel Posted January 8 Posted January 8 3 hours ago, Scarlet Octopus said: The biggest reason to know that I really am a coinshot is my first post, which was posted a minute after this thread came up. If I were an Elim, I wouldn't have known that another Elim was going to be killed, and I couldn't have claimed as early as I did. Reason two. Claiming today gets me definitely off the chopping block today, which, as you are so fond of saying, I'm no use to you dead. I'd be dead if I got exed, which seemed quite likely, considering that I had no way other than my role to explain what I said N1. Reason three. No one has disputed me at all. There has been no counterclaim on thread. I do suspect you got PMed by an Elim counterclaiming. Or are yourself an Elim. As for now. Iguana Toucan your reasoning for joining the countertrain seems weak. You would still have to read the write-up. You wouldn’t have known an Elim was killed until you read the write up. Regardless of whether you’re Elim or Village you still would have read the write-up, so this doesn’t mean anything. And this is your biggest reason? It doesn’t even support you. getting you off the chopping block assumes you would have been exed. And until I started pressing you, the votes were on Toucan and Iguana. And also, there are other ways of doing that than just claiming an important role. You could have explained your reasoning for what you did that made people want to vote you. And instead you went claiming coinshot. There are better ways to do this, and claiming coinshot is probably the worst one. If this is your reason, you felt you couldn’t explain your other actions, which is very elim-y to me. and of course no one’s counterclaimed. The coinshot will just kill you at night. And, what if they do? We then know that one of the two is lying, but we don’t know who. An Elim could claim coinshot in response to the real coinshot just as much as a real coinshot would claim in response to a fake coinshot, the other people have no way of knowing who’s who. And, the real coinshot just made it so they could be hit at night. And while yes, this does mean they’d lose an, Elim, that only happens if the Coinshot claims, and it’s not a 1-1. We lose a Coinshot kill while the Elims lose a Elim. As I’ve mentioned before, claiming Coinshot is a terrible move, and your reasons either don’t support you, or there are simply better ways to do it.
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