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Posted
12 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Hello friends, I am finally back in my own home! Prepare for a lot

First of all, Araris, c'mon. I mentioned from the very beginning that I was going to be out the entire weekend due to IRL reasons and brought it up in cycle 1. Maybe that was on me for playing a game where I knew I would be inactive for a couple cycles, but I feel like I communicated that as best as I could. 

Alright, going by players. 

1. ThatOneWorldhopper. Senior priest in our court. Has popped in at the beginning of every cycle to make a comment, but otherwise seems not very active in thread. The only thing I have on them that might be alignment indicative is that in cycle 2 they made a comment about how I was very quiet and wondered if that was a sign of me being active in another doc. Our Court has honestly been very quiet, so to me this didn't feel performative, and seemed like genuine wondering. 

2. Penguin. Honestly, I like Penguin. In our doc and in thread, they expressed that they didn't think the Elims caused the Cycle 1 switch from Twinstorm to TUH, but thought that the Elims were involved. The way they've been acting re: strong opinions that they refuse to really elaborate on is kinda consistent with their playstyle last game, but it's honestly NAI for me. 

3. Aman. Oh Aman. I like and respect you a lot, I really do, but I'm sensing some hypocrisy in this thread :P  

 Aside from your vote on Hoid Slayer that you rescinded promptly, you have been very nice and discussion heavy this cycle, but have not actually voted on anyone or come to any conclusion. If there's an elim between you and Araris, I am leaning more towards you. Who are you actually going to vote for this cycle?

4. Ksauce. I voted on KSauce last cycle. Similar to Penguin (And honestly I think Penguin just took what I said in the doc and repeated it) I thought the surge in activity and grasp of game mechanics new to me when in past games they generally seemed quiet and confused. And yes, as they pointed out, they were evil last game. 

This post feels a little weird to me. I remain suspicious because of the strong interest in trying to figure out Courts and Court/Seniority mechanics when Hoid Slayer confirmed that wasn't something they discussed in doc. I don't trust them for now. 

5. CD. Coming up a little blank here. Inconclusive. They claim their highest (and only) e!reads are Twinstorm and BBB. They voted BBB a few times before switching, claiming it was because they didn't think BBB was going to be exed. Honestly don't know. 

6. Hoid Slayer. Really like Hoid Slayer. You're working very hard to analyze things and have strong if/then reasoning. 

8. I like Araris, apart from being slightly miffed about your suspicion of me. I am all for being suspicious of me for things I've actually done, but my impression is that you're upset at me for the way I parked my vote on Twinstorm early on, and that I've been very quiet. 

9. BBB. Uh. Confused, especially given his recent vote just as I was typing up this post. I did dislike the way they were so focused on Twinstorm, but given the flip it seems weird.

I like Aman's thing. So here. 

players I kind of trust

Hoid Slayer, Araris, Penguin

players I want to to trust but don't quite yet.

Aman 

Players I would happily exe right now

Ksauce, BBB, CD, Worldhopper

 

Of those four, the only one that really rung any alarm bells is Ksauce, but I'm willing to change that after another sweep through D2 and considering pairings. 

Oh, you're back! TBH wasn't expecting you until next cycle, hopefully we can hash out my read of you quick then. This post does help, but I have problems with recency bias, so will probably need more concrete engagement.

I am, unfortunately, a human being, and hypocrisy is in our nature :P curious which bit you're referring specifically tho. Not yet voting?

C1 I was attempting to reverse pocket e!Araris so I made sure that other than my initial nonsense vote, I voted alongside him. ATM I'm being more deliberate with my votes, and tbh I won't vote until I see a VC anyway and I'm too lazy to make one right now :P it's been a long weekend, okay?

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Hey, I specifically didn’t vote you this cycle or try and focus discussion around you while you were gone. My suspicion of you came mostly from looking at the vote counts. If I’m village, then either all the elims that voted C2 voted on TwinStorm (which says something about KSauce and BBB), or you are an elim.

Which I suppose is consistent with your vote on KSauce.

Can't quite tell which of those options is the one consistent with your last statement :P 

 

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh, you're back! TBH wasn't expecting you until next cycle, hopefully we can hash out my read of you quick then. This post does help, but I have problems with recency bias, so will probably need more concrete engagement.

I am, unfortunately, a human being, and hypocrisy is in our nature :P curious which bit you're referring specifically tho. Not yet voting?

C1 I was attempting to reverse pocket e!Araris so I made sure that other than my initial nonsense vote, I voted alongside him. ATM I'm being more deliberate with my votes, and tbh I won't vote until I see a VC anyway and I'm too lazy to make one right now :P it's been a long weekend, okay?

I said Monday because I thought I was going to be back much later on Sunday than I actually was :P (I was at the PA Rennaissance Faire today, it was a lot of fun) The bit I was specifically referring to was when you said my LG30 play was RPing and chiming in with helpful thoughts but not actually committing + your reference to Araris re:distancing where you said distancing was about airing out some suspicions but not actually following through. So yes, I thought you being very active and helpful this cycle but not actually locking down a suspicion or voting was suspicious.

Edited by Doc12
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Doc12 said:

Can't quite tell which of those options is the one consistent with your last statement :P 

 

I said Monday because I thought I was going to be back much later on Sunday than I actually was :P (I was at the PA Rennaissance Faire today, it was a lot of fun) The bit I was specifically referring to was when you said my LG30 play was RPing and chiming in with helpful thoughts but not actually committing/your reference to Araris re:distancing where you said distancing was about airing out some suspicions but not actually following through. 

Yeah, I was just about to edit in an @ that I connected the dots after rereading. I mean, fair enough :P 

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted

Response to Araris

Alright Araris, I went through your posts again so I could understand why you were suspicious of me, and from my understanding it comes down to you thinking 1) there must have been an Elim voting on Twinstorm c1 based on activity, and 2) The Elims don't actually want a Twinstorm kill c2

Vote counts c1

Araris Valerian (2): The Unknown Hammerer and IcedOut Penguin
BigBadBagsworth (2): Twinstorm + returned
Doc12 (2): ThatOneWorldhopper + returned
The Unknown Hammerer (5): Araris Valerian, xxGaea, Amanuensis, Hoid Slayer + returned
TwinStorm (4): BigBadBagsworth, CoderDrag0n8, Doc12 + returned

I'd just point out I was the first to vote on Twinstorm here, based on actual suspicion of being the third vote on what looked like a pile, and then I left for my trip, which is why I did not change it rest of cycle. 

Vote counts c2

Big Bad Bagsworth (3): Twin Storm, Hoid Slayer, + returned
Kaladins Sense of Humor Spren (3): Doc12, Araris Valerian, + returned
Twin Storm (4): Kaladins Spren, Coder Dragon, Bagsworth + returned

It's been already said by someone in this thread, but apparently the Twinstorm vote held pretty strong c2 until last few hours when I got to hop on and place a vote. I thought by that point Twinstorm was reading strongly village and at first tried for a tie, realized that didn't work in this game, and went for someone I actually thought was acting weird. 
 

Current Thoughts

Honestly based on what's happened so far, BBB is looking less Elim because that self-vote play was pretty silly when there was only 1 actual vote on him. I don't think that's something potential Elim teammates would have told him to do, as I'd expect them to be actually keeping count together. 

Worldhopper finally came in and voted... on Penguin, based on wanting Penguin to vote on who they actually found suspicious. I feel like Penguin has been pretty straightforward about their thoughts. Honestly not sure what to think of this right now. I do think Penguin's trust of me over TOW is a little unwarranted given both our levels of activity (or lack thereof) but they have been pretty clear about their thoughts this cycle. Seems like a quick skim vote. 

Based on posts this cycle, I think I'm actually more willing to exe CD than Ksauce, though I am very willing to exe them both and will switch to guarantee an exe. For both of these players, it's the unwillingness to actually commit to any broader reads and more commenting on game mechanics than actually analyzing. And for CD especially it's the defensiveness and weird tone.

Current Vote Count, as best as I can gather, not actually counting Returned yet because I don't know seniority of Willshapers.

BBB (2): CD, BBB

KSauce (1): Doc,

Worldhopper (1) : Hoid Slayer (Windrunner)

CD (2) : Araris, Doc

Penguin (1): Worldhopper (Stoneward)

Posted
9 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Response to Araris

Alright Araris, I went through your posts again so I could understand why you were suspicious of me, and from my understanding it comes down to you thinking 1) there must have been an Elim voting on Twinstorm c1 based on activity, and 2) The Elims don't actually want a Twinstorm kill c2

Vote counts c1

Araris Valerian (2): The Unknown Hammerer and IcedOut Penguin
BigBadBagsworth (2): Twinstorm + returned
Doc12 (2): ThatOneWorldhopper + returned
The Unknown Hammerer (5): Araris Valerian, xxGaea, Amanuensis, Hoid Slayer + returned
TwinStorm (4): BigBadBagsworth, CoderDrag0n8, Doc12 + returned

I'd just point out I was the first to vote on Twinstorm here, based on actual suspicion of being the third vote on what looked like a pile, and then I left for my trip, which is why I did not change it rest of cycle. 

Vote counts c2

Big Bad Bagsworth (3): Twin Storm, Hoid Slayer, + returned
Kaladins Sense of Humor Spren (3): Doc12, Araris Valerian, + returned
Twin Storm (4): Kaladins Spren, Coder Dragon, Bagsworth + returned

It's been already said by someone in this thread, but apparently the Twinstorm vote held pretty strong c2 until last few hours when I got to hop on and place a vote. I thought by that point Twinstorm was reading strongly village and at first tried for a tie, realized that didn't work in this game, and went for someone I actually thought was acting weird. 
 

Current Thoughts

Honestly based on what's happened so far, BBB is looking less Elim because that self-vote play was pretty silly when there was only 1 actual vote on him. I don't think that's something potential Elim teammates would have told him to do, as I'd expect them to be actually keeping count together. 

Worldhopper finally came in and voted... on Penguin, based on wanting Penguin to vote on who they actually found suspicious. I feel like Penguin has been pretty straightforward about their thoughts. Honestly not sure what to think of this right now. I do think Penguin's trust of me over TOW is a little unwarranted given both our levels of activity (or lack thereof) but they have been pretty clear about their thoughts this cycle. Seems like a quick skim vote. 

Based on posts this cycle, I think I'm actually more willing to exe CD than Ksauce, though I am very willing to exe them both and will switch to guarantee an exe. For both of these players, it's the unwillingness to actually commit to any broader reads and more commenting on game mechanics than actually analyzing. And for CD especially it's the defensiveness and weird tone.

Current Vote Count, as best as I can gather, not actually counting Returned yet because I don't know seniority of Willshapers.

BBB (2): CD, BBB

KSauce (1): Doc,

Worldhopper (1) : Hoid Slayer (Windrunner)

CD (2) : Araris, Doc

Penguin (1): Worldhopper (Stoneward)

Welcome back!

I don't have a lot of time right now, but I'm leaning village on you right now

I think there's probably an elim in Aman / Araris; otherwise, elims sacrifice all game control, and I'm leaning towards Araris based on the fact both me and him are still alive

Will have to analyse possible elim teams later, but I'm taking anything Araris says with a grain of salt

ALSO, important to mention I will not be nearly as online tomorrow as I have been these past two days, as, like BBB, I cannot access the Shard from school

I'm gonna leave my vote on BBB though for now; I don't like his self-vote nearly as much as Doc does

Also, @Doc12, and anyone else interested, KSauce compiled a list of Courts and seniority that I've been using:

20 hours ago, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren said:

Yes, we do. In seniority order:

Stoneward: ThatOneWorldhopper, IcedOutPenguin, Doc12

Willshaper: Amanuensis, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, BigBadBagsworth

Windrunner: CoderDrag0n8, Hoid Slayer, Araris Valerian

 

Windrunner's Divine Breath ability... basically makes someone a Thug. It'd be disastrous if an elim got it. 

 

@ThatOneWorldhopper, you’re on the recently browsing

Posted
3 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I think there's probably an elim in Aman / Araris; otherwise, elims sacrifice all game control, and I'm leaning towards Araris based on the fact both me and him are still alive

If it gives you a better read of me, I got Bondsmith’s breath, and my current order is to move Truthwatcher (alignment scan) to the top of the list. Of course, we have to catch an elim for that to kick in before the game ends, but I think we can pull it off.

Posted (edited)

VC:

BBB (4): Coder, BBB, Willshaper, Windrunner

KSauce (1): Penguin

TOW (1): Hoid

Coder (2): Araris, Doc

Penguin (2): TOW, Stoneward

Assuming I haven't mixed up anything. @BigBadBagsworth, you've brought not one, but two votes onto yourself. 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

If it gives you a better read of me, I got Bondsmith’s breath, and my current order is to move Truthwatcher (alignment scan) to the top of the list. Of course, we have to catch an elim for that to kick in before the game ends, but I think we can pull it off.

Interesting... a lot of folks will have to move Courts.

Now, to address all the folks who are looking at the difference in how much I'm concerned about mechanics in this game, I just think that this game has more interesting mechanics than other ones I've played.  And for those of you who are taking this as to mean an alignment change, then I'd be village, as I was evil last game.

I honestly have no idea of what to do now. I don't feel good about BBB, although the back-and-forth between Aman and Araris makes me wary. Coder feels similar to how he did in his last game, I think, so v!lean. Doc I'm neutral. Penguin also feels the same as his last game, so also v!lean. I don't have much to go by for TOW, he hasn't posted much. Now, Hoid Slayer... village.

So it's now:

BBB (5): Coder, BBB, KSauce, Willshaper, Windrunner

KSauce (1): Penguin

TOW (1): Hoid

Coder (2): Araris, Doc

Penguin (2): TOW, Stoneward

Edit:

Lharir saw a curiosity. Iggdraz, pointing a piece of metal at his chest. He was the one that half-thought he was a god. Well, he was not. And Lharir felt that he was a rebel. 

Even two of the three remaining gods backed him in this. Willshaper the Resolute. Windrunner the Protecting. 

Edited by KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren
Posted (edited)

Coder it is, then

Quote

BBB (4): Coder, BBB, KSauce, Windrunner

Coder (4): Araris, Doc, Aman, Willshaper

KSauce (1): Penguin

TOW (1): Hoid

Penguin (2): TOW, Stoneward

Since I am #2 in Willshaper (after Joe), the extra vote is mine, right? 

ED1T:

VC colorized with my tentative C3 reads

Spoiler

BBB (4): Coder, BBB, KSauce, Windrunner

Coder (4): Araris, Doc, Aman, Willshaper

KSauce (1): Penguin

TOW (1): Hoid

Penguin (2): TOW, Stoneward

I do personally find it hard to believe Araris, Doc, and I all rolled village, but I am willing to work under that assumption today and vote with them.

Coder + KSauce seem unpaired with BBB, but it could be a bussing situation. C+K could also be partners.

Penguin and KSauce + TOW seem unpaired but I'll need to look back and see if Penguin actually expects their KSauce vote to go anywhere.

This may or may not be my final vote as I have today off and intend to do a few things + participate at EoD.

ED2T:

TBH I am worried that BBB is another LHF situation like TwinStorm. The big thing that I didn't like from Penguin on C2 was their decision to sit out of the exe because they didn't have time to catch up on the thread. Might just be a Penguin thing, but the wording in particular felt like it was coming from an elim perspective rather than a village one. At the very least, I would expect a villager to put in some effort, like asking for a quick summary of events / votes.

In a V/V/V Aman/Araris/Doc world, I could maybe see a Penguin, Coder, KSauce team.

That said, both BBB and KSauce aren't active in our doc, so BBB could either be preoccupied in another doc or truly a villager who's tapped out. KSauce, however, is posting, so they don't have that last defense

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted
3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH I am worried that BBB is another LHF situation like TwinStorm. The big thing that I didn't like from Penguin on C2 was their decision to sit out of the exe because they didn't have time to catch up on the thread. Might just be a Penguin thing, but the wording in particular felt like it was coming from an elim perspective rather than a village one. At the very least, I would expect a villager to put in some effort, like asking for a quick summary of events / votes.

 

RUDE! I was very busy on Saturday!

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

RUDE! I was very busy on Saturday!

I get busy, but I feel like elims are more likely to pop in and not vote when a villager is in lead for the exe, especially if BBB is also village and no elims were at risk.

This does make it extremely likely that BBB and Penguin are unpaired though, and at this point PoE seems to indicate they're not both village

 

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted
1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I get busy, but I feel like elims are more likely to pop in and not vote when a villager is in lead for the exe, especially if BBB is also village and no elims were at risk.

This does make it extremely likely that BBB and Penguin are unpaired though, and at this point PoE seems to indicate they're not both village

 

So you'd have me vote randomly?

Posted
4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Coder it is, then

Since I am #2 in Willshaper (after Joe), the extra vote is mine, right? 

ED1T:

VC colorized with my tentative C3 reads

  Hide contents

BBB (4): Coder, BBB, KSauce, Windrunner

Coder (4): Araris, Doc, Aman, Willshaper

KSauce (1): Penguin

TOW (1): Hoid

Penguin (2): TOW, Stoneward

I do personally find it hard to believe Araris, Doc, and I all rolled village, but I am willing to work under that assumption today and vote with them.

Coder + KSauce seem unpaired with BBB, but it could be a bussing situation. C+K could also be partners.

Penguin and KSauce + TOW seem unpaired but I'll need to look back and see if Penguin actually expects their KSauce vote to go anywhere.

This may or may not be my final vote as I have today off and intend to do a few things + participate at EoD.

ED2T:

TBH I am worried that BBB is another LHF situation like TwinStorm. The big thing that I didn't like from Penguin on C2 was their decision to sit out of the exe because they didn't have time to catch up on the thread. Might just be a Penguin thing, but the wording in particular felt like it was coming from an elim perspective rather than a village one. At the very least, I would expect a villager to put in some effort, like asking for a quick summary of events / votes.

In a V/V/V Aman/Araris/Doc world, I could maybe see a Penguin, Coder, KSauce team.

That said, both BBB and KSauce aren't active in our doc, so BBB could either be preoccupied in another doc or truly a villager who's tapped out. KSauce, however, is posting, so they don't have that last defense

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Coder, BBB, and KSauce are all low seniority, so right now CD is getting exed.

Actually, no, I don't think so, as both me and BBB are Willshaper, and seniority is only the tiebreaker. Willshaper's vote stays on BBB.

BBB (5): Coder, BBB, KSauce, Willshaper, Windrunner

KSauce (1): Penguin

TOW (1): Hoid

Coder (3): Araris, Doc, Aman

Penguin (2): TOW, Stoneward

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

So you'd have me vote randomly?

Look, I wouldn't "have" you do anything :P if you're village, your job is to vote elims. If you're an elim, your job is to live. So far I see you're very interested in defending yourself but not interested in voting elims

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted

I don't know what to do

But I know I don't like the way things are going

I want to preface this by saying this isn't a good, in depth summary: now that we're back in the school week, I won't be able to pull another of those for the rest of the game - although it doesn't look like it'll last much longer anyways

I went over BBB's behavior;

C1, he voted me for accusing Polly without evidence.

He then dropped the vote on me, switching to TwinStorm.

He called sus on Araris and Twin, and left his vote on TwinStorm the entire day.

C2, he attacks Twin and says he's suspicious of me.

This cycle, all he's done is say he doesn't know what to do, and vote himself.

Now, a lot of what he has done is odd. But not having any ideas? Not doing anything, to the point of voting himself? That doesn't read elim to me. Because I suspect one of either Aman or Araris, maybe even Doc, is elim - and I don't see any of them directing BBB here. So I won't vote him.

Now, for CD, the other rival:

First, I don't think the elims would have let the CD train pile so quickly if they are against his death. There has been little defense for CD. As for his actions:

C1, CD poke-voted me.

Then, CD retracted the vote on me before I even responded - which, I will admit, is kinda weird - and didn't do much until voting BBB. At the time, BBB wasn't likely to get the exe. Later, CD retracted his vote and voted TwinStorm for cycle end.

All of this does seem somewhat elim indicative.

C2, CD was decently active in the discussion on Saturday. He voted BBB "to make a tie" with less than an hour left in the cycle, but then switched to TwinStorm last minute. Why? Why would an elim make such a move, drawing attention to them?

This cycle, CD has been vocally against BBB. He has been attacked for his defensive stance; yet, as I stated in QF 76, and I state again, I've seen CD act defensive even outside SE. I actually went back and reread part of QF 76: a game in which CD was notably innocent.

On 8/8/2025 at 10:45 AM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

This is why I can never leave the shard un-checked for long. *sighs*

Sorry I was trying to get a read which I thought was what people were doing

I think so?

I'm not good at voting, it apears.

D1 just didn't have any evidence, and I was very confused.

I was confused, alright?

YES! I was just trying to do an RP. My characters entire thing is 'he hates the law and LOVES breaking it' so I needed to give him literally ANY reason to be ANY kind of innocent.

This evidence makes sense.

Hoid Slayer

Tone sound a little familiar?

On 9/7/2025 at 5:11 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

We’ll, I didn’t want it to seem like I was joining a train, someone had just advised me to not join trains, so I wanted it to be clear it was a poke vote, and I am generally easily convinced.

Or try

On 8/7/2025 at 1:08 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

I don't think hes sus, i am just confused and I think people are voting to get reactions so i wanna see how he reacts

thats what this is right?

vs

image.thumb.png.6c56109382d4cd7d137d27ac07ee294b.png

(couldn't quote that one cause it's closed, but you get what I'm saying)

I may not fully support CDs actions, but more than anything, they are consistent

So instead, I want to try something else

I'm going to follow my gut

Let's be honest, my vote on TOW isn't doing anything

So let it rest on Araris Valerian

Put quite simply:

Why am I still alive?

Why is Aman still alive?

Why the heck is Araris still alive?

A veteran, who's been quite active

Say whatever you will, I see no reason for an elim team to not have already NKed Araris

The ONLY elim I really see keeping Araris alive is me - to hide - and I know that world isn't true.

Araris has made plenty of factual analysis, but none that I truly agree with. And from someone with his experience, frankly, I'd expect a little more. It feels somewhat like trying to drag our attention away from what matters.

Maybe this is just me getting flashbacks to LG 106. But this is a read that, for now, I am willing to throw my weight behind. I hope others follow.

I've already spent way too much time I should be doing homework on this post, but I'm going to try and fit in a little RP:

Ekkar ran to Evinir and grabbed him. He pulled their bodies together, squeezing, and buried his face in the taller man's shoulders. And then he began to sob. He let it all out; all the pressure of the recent events. Of his past. Everything. The pain he had kept in, all the shock of being an outsider, of not knowing who he was. Of seeing his friends die. It came over him, and he let the tears wash it all away.

Then, suddenly, Ekkar felt a force pushing him away. Hands, holding him at arms length. He looked up, and saw Evinir Cragborn staring at him with a gaze of aversion. Of disgust. Choking through the tears, body wracked with heaves and a dry laughter, Ekkar choked his name out.

"Evinir."

"Ekkar..." Evinir looked him up and down, then let go of him and clearly stopped himself before wiping his hands on his coat. "Ekkar... what happened to you?"

Ekkar looked down at his ragged self, then glanced back up, crooked smile on his face.

"It doesn't matter, you're here now, you can fix everything..." Ekkar reached out to grab Evinir, but the man pulled back. And Ekkar finally began to realize.

"Ekkar, I'm sorry. I don't know what's happening."

"The priests... they're dying... someone's killing them! Evinir, you have to stop them!"

A glaze went over Evinir's eyes, and Ekkar sensed a depth - a frailty - he had never seen before. A weariness. No. He must have imagined it. But then Evinir turned away.

"I'm sorry, Ekkar. I can't help you." And slowly, impossibly, Evinir began to walk away. His footsteps faded, and Ekkar didn't go after him. Like a fool, he stood there, drenched in sweat and tears, smile gone, in the dark chamber.

Completely alone.

Posted
12 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Put quite simply:

Why am I still alive?

Why is Aman still alive?

Why the heck is Araris still alive?

A veteran, who's been quite active

Say whatever you will, I see no reason for an elim team to not have already NKed Araris

You’ll find that I am pretty good at avoiding NKs.

But more importantly: Why are we even asking these questions right now? There are 3 elims, so even if one of myself/Aman is elim, we’d have 2 teammates to find as well. If you don’t think CD or BBB are our partners, then who are the other elims?

I will say that if I had to redo my suspicions post I’d probably swap Doc into the neutral category and KSauce into the exe category. Which makes me more confident in voting CD over BBB, though they could be e/e still, and just bussing.

Posted
39 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh so now you want to vote Araris :P who do you think his allies are?

Honestly, I'm not quite sure.

Let's go over this:

He's incompatible with me (duh), probably you - as I'd like to assume for now that you and Araris aren't elim together, CD, and Penguin, I'd say. There also the matter of his animosity towards Doc. The truth is, Araris hasn't been making that many accusations at all. He's been vocal about his dislike of Penguin since the beginning (although he recently dropped that dislike, saying it seemed more "suboptimal village"), and... that's about it.

I can imagine him being elim with TOW, KSauce, BBB...

But honestly, my hunch on Araris isn't based entirely on facts as many of my others are - although, the more I look at it, the more confident I feel about this - it's based on me seeking a deviation from the standard. Besides this one, I've played in three standard SE games, and I've lost every single one. The most elims I've found is two - and that was because of unique mechanics that gave them away. Clearly, I need to do something different.

39 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

But more importantly: Why are we even asking these questions right now? There are 3 elims, so even if one of myself/Aman is elim, we’d have 2 teammates to find as well. If you don’t think CD or BBB are our partners, then who are the other elims?

I kinda already answered this, but like I said, this is just something that feels right

Why am I asking these questions right now?

Because I think they need to be asked. We've spent most of our attention on a select few, who have made small slip ups. But honestly, I'm starting to think villagers are more likely to slip up than elims - because elims act with more care. Villagers make mistakes; elims correct them.

Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Honestly, I'm not quite sure.

Let's go over this:

He's incompatible with me (duh), probably you - as I'd like to assume for now that you and Araris aren't elim together, CD, and Penguin, I'd say. There also the matter of his animosity towards Doc. The truth is, Araris hasn't been making that many accusations at all. He's been vocal about his dislike of Penguin since the beginning (although he recently dropped that dislike, saying it seemed more "suboptimal village"), and... that's about it.

I can imagine him being elim with TOW, KSauce, BBB...

But honestly, my hunch on Araris isn't based entirely on facts as many of my others are - although, the more I look at it, the more confident I feel about this - it's based on me seeking a deviation from the standard. Besides this one, I've played in three standard SE games, and I've lost every single one. The most elims I've found is two - and that was because of unique mechanics that gave them away. Clearly, I need to do something different.

I kinda already answered this, but like I said, this is just something that feels right

Why am I asking these questions right now?

Because I think they need to be asked. We've spent most of our attention on a select few, who have made small slip ups. But honestly, I'm starting to think villagers are more likely to slip up than elims - because elims act with more care. Villagers make mistakes; elims correct them.

FTR I do think his response to my starting elim Bondsmith theory was a tell but I also think Araris is a better exe candidate for tomorrow

Possible worlds right now are this:

World One: E BBB, V Coder

In this scenario, e!BBB is sacrificing himself. This would either imply his teammates are bussing him for long term gain (only KSauce) or that he's gone rogue and his teammates are either staying out of it (Penguin) or voting the CW (me, Araris, Doc).

World Two: V BBB, E Coder

My current worldview, mostly because I feel like BBB escalated to a self-vote way too quickly to be a sane / faithful elim. In this scenario his team is either sticking onto BBB (KSauce) or are bussing him (me, Araris, Doc). Both TOW and Penguin aren't on the wagons, which might imply that they are not teamed with either BBB or Coder, but in TOW's case I doubt they're active enough to help.

World Three: V BBB, V Coder

In this world, at least one of Araris/Doc/me would need to be elim for that to work, but more likely two. In this scenario Penguin is very likely their third as there's no reason for him to get involved in yet another V/V cycle.

World Four: E BBB, E Coder

Not impossible, assuming that BBB got the agreement of his teammates to get bussed today. The question would then be if KSauce would join both of their teammates or if one of them would attempt a CW (Araris, Doc, Me)

 

Personally I think Coder is the play today, as BBB voting himself increases the risk factor of a miss exe

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted
17 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Let's go over this:

He's incompatible with me (duh), probably you - as I'd like to assume for now that you and Araris aren't elim together, CD, and Penguin, I'd say. There also the matter of his animosity towards Doc. The truth is, Araris hasn't been making that many accusations at all. He's been vocal about his dislike of Penguin since the beginning (although he recently dropped that dislike, saying it seemed more "suboptimal village"), and... that's about it.

To clarify, Penguin is in my village category right now, along with you and TOW. I could be wrong, and Aman made some valid points in regards to him, but for now I am going to stand by my read of suboptimal village play.

But it's blatantly false that I haven't been making accusations. I accused Doc and BBB at the start of the day, fired back at Aman, and am currently actively involved in a train on CD. I went after Penguin C1 and C2. I tried to get KSauce killed last cycle. You and TOW are practically the only people I haven't accused at this point.

I'm happy exeing any of CD, BBB, KSauce, and Doc today. Probably in roughly that order. My only concern with the current state of the votes is that CD, BBB, and KSauce are all voting on BBB. But if the team is BBB/KSauce/CD then I don't really think they have a choice here other than bussing given the rather complete lack of village reads on them.

20 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

But honestly, I'm starting to think villagers are more likely to slip up than elims - because elims act with more care. Villagers make mistakes; elims correct them.

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "slip up" here. Villagers generally can't "slip up", because they aren't hiding or scheming. They are just throwing around random votes and seeing what sticks, then looking for patterns.

Was in the middle of writing this when Aman posted, but I basically agree with his post and think we are in e!CD world, not entirely sure about BBB.

Posted
22 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

FTR I do think his response to my starting elim Bondsmith theory was a tell but I also think Araris is a better exe candidate for tomorrow

Do you think Araris is elim?

Honest question

I don't know about BBB and CD

But the more I look over what they've done, the more I feel like we don't have any reason to vote them out any more than KSauce, or TOW, or Penguin, or even Doc

Also

22 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

World Four: E BBB, E Coder

Not impossible, assuming that BBB got the agreement of his teammates to get bussed today. The question would then be if KSauce would join both of their teammates or if one of them would attempt a CW (Araris, Doc, Me)

 

Personally I think Coder is the play today, as BBB voting himself increases the risk factor of a miss exe

What do you mean by CW, and what makes you assume KSauce is the third link here?

Honestly, I don't see this as very possible since I feel like elims should be able to force a village kill relatively easy this cycle if the village remains without unity

I don't like the direction this cycle is headed

19 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I tried to get KSauce killed last cycle

We both know KSauce had little to no chance of death last cycle

Though your delay there was definitely one of the things that most defend you in my eyes

The only reason I can immediately think of for an e!Araris to do that is to save BBB - and I don't think BBB looks elim to me, partially for his self-vote

But hey, maybe you told him to do that to then clear him

So should I vote BBB then?

Maybe

I don't know

But I want to do something different

  1. @ThatOneWorldhopper as As If
  2. @IcedOutPenguin as ___________
  3. @Doc12 as Evi
  4. @Amanuensis as Kosm
  5. @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren as Lharir
  6. @CoderDrag0n8 as CD
  7. @Hoid Slayer as Ekkar Loral
  8. @Araris Valerian as Arlun
  9. @BigBadBagsworth as Iggdraz the Confused

If the village is in there:

You know what I want you to do

Posted
1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Do you think Araris is elim?

I feel better about him after our back and forth yesterday. Enough that I'd prefer not to vote him today, in the off chance I'm meta tunneling, and also because the longer he's alive the more information we can get out of him. I might have openly admitted to trying to pocket e!Araris, but that does not mean I stopped trying to pocket him :P

Essentially, I respect Araris' play both as a villager and as an elim to hear him out in either case. We've been hoping for a V/V game for a while but always end up opposed, so part of me is hoping that this is that game and I'm being paranoid for nothing :P

If you don't want to vote Coder or BBB, I am down for considering Penguin or KSauce as an alternative today.

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I feel better about him after our back and forth yesterday. Enough that I'd prefer not to vote him today, in the off chance I'm meta tunneling, and also because the longer he's alive the more information we can get out of him. I might have openly admitted to trying to pocket e!Araris, but that does not mean I stopped trying to pocket him :P

Essentially, I respect Araris' play both as a villager and as an elim to hear him out in either case. We've been hoping for a V/V game for a while but always end up opposed, so part of me is hoping that this is that game and I'm being paranoid for nothing :P

If you don't want to vote Coder or BBB, I am down for considering Penguin or KSauce as an alternative today.

I'm sorry

I want to trust you, Aman

But I am not backing off this ledge

Edited by Hoid Slayer
1000th post!
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