Quick Fix 75: The Tower's Pressure

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

How are we in this world when you have three votes? Check your PM as I'm gonna send something and the message might merge.

The end section of both scenarios details what a Striker vote means.

[Kasimir he/him]

19 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Spirit soothes, we both die, you're last one standing. (In this scenario, a Striker me vote would result in you v Spirit, but you'd win because it would be 3-2)

We lose if it's 3-2 because one Soothe on E!Spirit in this world removes two votes, so Spirit is 1-2 against me. I die in that world.

[Lord Spirit he/him]

I think the math works out TOW.

[Kasimir he/him]

I'm not sure it does.

Spirit as my leading PoE candidate until we can settle whether or not there's an issue. TUN's scenarios all assume he has two votes, but he has three.

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Order said:

Spirit has to sooth self or die. TOW dies.

I'm not on board with this part of the plan.

But why are you so confident in your villagillery?

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

2 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

But why are you so confident in your villagillery?

...

The fact that my GMPM says I'm village. 

Why should you think I'm village? I've been over that a bunch of times.

[Kasimir he/him]

Was hab ich denn gelesen.

[What in tarnation did I just read.]

Edited to add:

Unless I'm wrong, we may need to just hardcommit this Turn. At least that's my takeaway from the war gaming. I'll note for what it's worth - I rethought TUN a lot last cycle and a bit at the start of this one and I don't want to carry on there. I'm okay with v!TUN.

Between TOW and Spirit, if I'm honest, TOW has a way better vote history.

Compare:

Quote

TOW: TJ, Striker, Penguin, Aster, Penguin, Striker
Spirit: Aster, TUN, TJ, TUN, Null, Striker.

The two final Striker votes are during the cycle Striker first openwoofed so that's not as crucial. You could argue that TOW's accuracy is so high that TOW was just distancing, but I kind of question both the degree to which the Elims would happily want TOW to waste a distancing vote on them persistently (and then potentially need the Soothe) as well as the one-sidedness of TOW's suspicions on Penguin.

I'll go over their posts again tomorrow as I need to rest up now but if I were forced to pick now, I'd go for Spirit hands down.

Edited May 28, 2025 by Kasimir

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

1 minute ago, The Unknown Order said:

Why should you think I'm village? I've been over that a bunch of times.

I understand, but you just seem to be expecting us to believe in you. I'm not so sure. 

[Kasimir he/him]

40 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I understand, but you just seem to be expecting us to believe in you. I'm not so sure. 

I think my question would be: what has Spirit done by this point that's Villagery in terms of votes?

Edited to add:

I specify votes because I've felt Spirit has had pretty tonally good posts as an Elim before. By that metric, I basically think you and TUN look more Villagery, while Spirit has just...existed. And if you are still kind of null at endgame, then that itself should be suspect. (TJ would remember this one  )

Edited May 28, 2025 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

54 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I understand, but you just seem to be expecting us to believe in you. I'm not so sure. 

I've already explained why you should believe me. In addition to all of that, if I were e right now, there is no way I'm voting for you here or soothing Penguin's vote last turn, and there's no way Striker votes me twice.

[Kasimir he/him]

@ThatOneWorldhopper Dude, if you're Village which I think you are, we kind of really need to vote here. There's no point in you having a vote on yourself, this just hands the game over to the last Elim by letting yourself die.

Ngl Spirit's eagerness to vote TOW really makes me sus but at the same time, I acknowledge I could be tunnelling by this point. I just go back to the fact that of everyone remaining from my POV, the only one who hasn't really done Villagery stuff is Spirit.

[Lord Spirit he/him]

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ngl Spirit's eagerness to vote TOW really makes me sus but at the same time, I acknowledge I could be tunnelling by this point. I just go back to the fact that of everyone remaining from my POV, the only one who hasn't really done Villagery stuff is Spirit.

TUO’s analysis is correct as far as I can tell. So I should vote TOW. But I admittedly haven’t done a lot this game. I’ve been lazy (partly because I kind of thought I wouldn’t make it this far).

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Dude, if you're Village which I think you are, we kind of really need to vote here. There's no point in you having a vote on yourself, this just hands the game over to the last Elim by letting yourself die.

Sorry, I couldn't respond for a while. I'd like to see a vote count before I finalize my vote.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

About to climb into bed, so don't have time to do a nice looking vote count, but the Spreadsheet is up to date as of this post i'm writing.

10 hours left of the turn.

[Kasimir he/him]

38 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

Sorry, I couldn't respond for a while. I'd like to see a vote count before I finalize my vote.

@A Jo in the Bush?

Otherwise c/ping from the write-up:

TUN (3): Striker<T4>, Spirit<T4>, Striker<T7>

TOW (4): Spirit<T7>, TUN, Spirit, TOW

Spirit(4): TOW<T7>, Kas<T7>, TUN<T7>, Kas

Kas(1): Tinwatcher<T1>

I do currently worry that as it stands, E!Spirit soothes to 2 votes and you die.

I also worry that the you-votes will haunt us subsequently if we go through to future cycles and just want Spirit flipped at this point. Basically I'm just worried we're trying to be too clever and mech lock the game instead of doing what we should be bloody doing which is voting out the most evil player.

Maybe it's something I shouldn't endorse given my accuracy this game. But yeah I just want the I told you so if we do screw the Pooh on this one and Spirit was Evil all along.

Edited to add:

Ah sorry Jo, ninjaed.

2 hours ago, Lord Spirit said:

TUO’s analysis is correct as far as I can tell. So I should vote TOW. But I admittedly haven’t done a lot this game. I’ve been lazy (partly because I kind of thought I wouldn’t make it this far).

TUN's analysis explicitly leaves E!you and E!TOW with clear PtVs. The fact you don't find this an issue worries me.

Edited to add 2:

But also I think that TUN and I have fried our brains trying to wargame the outcomes and we keep getting different answers each time so who tf knows anymore, certainly not me.

Edited to add 3:

Like, voting aside how is this the same guy:

Turn 4: TUN is Evil due to votes cleared on him (!!!)

Turn 5: TUN is village for clearing this many votes, I'm no longer sus of him now that Penguin got major pushback from Kas about it

Turn 7: TUN is back on the menu boys!

I suppose you could argue it's a villagery fickleness but honestly to me it reads like opportunistic reads Spirit isn't really invested in.

Sorry if I'm wrong or tunnelling I guess. This hasn't been my game. But Kalhavar does sell tunnels so I'm playing my character!

Edited to add 4:

Like ok, I guess the tunnel is getting deeper and darker  ( @The Unknown Order, sanity check at some point please?)

1. Turn 4 TUN vote synchs with Striker who also voted TUN.

2. Penguin then furthers the TUN vote by making the push on Turn 5 which I block. Conveniently, this is the time Spirit decides yeah no, we don't vibe with the TUN vote anymore because Kas is saying there's an Elim in the people pushing TUN.

3. And then to me what I consider the actual howler:

On Turn 7, as we are considering the possibility of a last Elim after Striker:

On 5/28/2025 at 4:12 AM, Lord Spirit said:

You seem very confident of your own villagerness. Obviously you know your alignment, but when was it decided that the final elim is between me and TOW? I’m reasonably confident that Kas is Village (or at least, if he’s elim, he’s playing far above my level), but I don’t have a good read on you. 

You also didn’t mention Strikers vote, which could have an impact. 

I distrust how confident you seem to be in winning.

Spirit now turns back to sussing TUN again, after the Turn 5 volta.

On 5/28/2025 at 4:50 AM, Lord Spirit said:

True. There is some decent evidence that your town. But maybe the elims decided that in a game where every death is an exe, it would be very important to have at least one elim get as much credibility as possible. Which could explain your votes. 

I’m not saying I think you’re an elim, I’m just saying that we need to consider every possibility. 

(I’m still hoping striker is the last elim and we’ll just win, but I doubt were that lucky)

What in tarnation is this. This is cleaning house when you should be closing down on your PoE, and here Spirit is deliberately enlargening the PoE by claiming that the good reason isn't a good reason after all. Washing it down by saying he doesn't think TUN is an Elim doesn't really change anything because Para 1 is still postulating an E!TUN world, and 'considering every possibility' 

IMO this is Spirit trying to keep sidetrain options wide open.

Which is followed up by:

On 5/28/2025 at 10:09 AM, Lord Spirit said:

I was leaving TUO, but this gives me doubts as well. If I die and flip village, then you say “oops, I know I voted the innocent for no reason except they didn’t have votes, but I actually thought it was TUO the entire time.”

 TOW for now. 

So you went from "I don't have a read on you" to "I'm not saying I think TUN is an Elim" to "tbh I wanted to vote TUN" -> isn't this functionally saying you think TUN is an Elim? If not, whyever are you leaning towards voting him? And how do we get from "there is some decent evidence you're town but I'm going to override all of that and vote you." (I'm aware Spirit didn't do that, but I think 'leaning TUN' is fairly interpreted as he wanted to vote TUN until that point.)

I'm sorry Village. I'm usually dead before lylo because this ain't what I'm good at. I would like to be talked out of this tunnel please.

Edited May 29, 2025 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Lord Spirit

E!TOW doesn't leave his vote here, and e!TOW kinda screws us anyway.

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

Here we go. I vote Lord Spirit so that he can't soothe the votes off of himself. Sorry, with the advent of summer I've been busy.

[Kasimir he/him]

Village gods save us, nothing feels right anymore >>

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

And that is Time! Turn 8 is over, tune in for Turn 9.

Edited May 29, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush