Era 3 Theory: Trell's new strategy

[JustQuestin2004 he/him]

So as of The Lost Metal, we have seen Trell, or more specifically, Autonomy, defeated and forced to leave Scadrial alone for now, with the promise of her returning to finish what she started.

But the real question is, how? The resources she had decades, maybe even a century or two, to build up has been taken down. The highest ranking members of the Set have been arrested or killed, their secret base, and all the research within, has been uncovered by the authorities. Her and her agent's greatest strength, anonymity, has been stripped away. Her army of the Men of Red and Gold has been stopped.

So now what can she do? Harmony is becoming Discord, but it's very unclear how that will end up or how she can take advantage. And the foundation that she was using is now exposed. Secrets revealed.

Here is my theory, each Era has revloved around Secrets in some way, there's always another after all.

Era 1 was all about the discovery of secrets, the hidden metals of Allomancy, the secrets of Hemalurgy, the very nature of the gods themselves. All was eventually discovered and made clear.

I believe that Era 2 was all about concealing secrets. The big players all held important secrets to themselves, Harmony hid the method to create Lerasium from Kelsier, he hid Lessie's true nature as a Kandra from Wax until it was too late to matter, he (Unsuccessfully) hid the fact that he is becoming Discord.

Kelsier and his Ghostbloods hid secrets, he already knew of the Set and could have tried to work more overtly, or even just inform others of what he knew, he did not. He is hiding his existence from the public, one of the core rules of his organization is to not reveal important secrets to outsiders.

The Malwish have hidden the secrets of their revolutionary technology, the Harmonium and the Unsealed Metalminds, away from Elendel.

There is so much concealment of these secrets, maybe that's even why much of Era 2 just doesn't feel the same as Era 1 to me, because in Era 1, most of the important secrets were revealed, but in Era 2 it feels that a lot of the important secrets were kept hidden for later, which left me feeling kind of annoyed. Nonetheless

I believe that Era 3 will be all the unveiling of secrets, we know that Era 3 will probably be a 'Spy-Thriller', with the North and South Scadrians locked in a 'Cold War' with each other.

I believe that an important part of Autonomy's next strategy will be to cause chaos by forcefully revealing important secrets to Scadrians in the hopes that they will tear themselves apart from the inside. 

Revealing secrets like how Harmony has become Discord, revealing the true nature of the Survivor and the Sovereign to all people to make them doubt the most prominent religions on Scadrial and make relations between the North and South even messier. Reveal the existence of Hemalurgy to the entire world so that everyone knows how to use it, possibly by taking advantage of advanced technology and televisions to spread it as far as possible.

After all, nothing can hurt worse than the truth.

[Returned he/him]

Interesting ideas! I think that they would dovetail nicely with Kelsier's growing suspicion of Harmony. And I can't help but feel that Kelsier is pretty aligned, personality- and goal-wise, with Autonomy in the first place. His continued presence on Scadrial might promote Autonomy's interests regardless of whether or not he chooses to support her in any explicit way.

But at the same time I wonder how much increased fractiousness would impede Discord and help other Shards. If fractiousness is Discord's primary thing, could it be effectively turned against him? It would be like trying to defeat Honor by keeping your promises, to defeat Cultivation by growing and developing things, to defeat Odium by hating things, or to defeat Endowment by giving things away. Not that strife necessarily benefits Discord. But my thinking is that Autonomy "wins" by her operational definition of autonomy becoming more prominent on Scadrial, while just making people and groups less harmonious there is playing Discord's game on Discord's turf, so to speak.

I could definitely imagine an angle in which Hemalurgy becomes prized so that individuals can become more independent and less susceptible to influence or control by others (except Autonomy herself, but that core contradiction is pretty explicitly a part of her representation in the books). I've been unclear about how Shard-to-Shard conflict actually plays out, and the events of Lost Metal have really upended my thinking there. Do you think that conventional/mundane operations (like military invasion or fomenting revolutions) are the primary, or most effective, mode of action when Shards fight one another?

Edited November 13, 2024 by Returned

[Trusk'our he/him]

1 hour ago, Returned said:

And I can't help but feel that Kelsier is pretty aligned, personality- and goal-wise, with Autonomy in the first place. His continued presence on Scadrial might promote Autonomy's interests regardless of whether or not he chooses to support her in any explicit way.

Oh yeah, Autonomy's a big fan of Kelsier. 

Spoiler

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508-dragonsteel-2022/#e15850

Questioner

We have some idea that Autonomy is fiddling around in Roshar and in Scadrial.

Brandon Sanderson

And other places.

Questioner

Considering her involvement with the Ghostbloods: has she directly interacted with Kelsier/Thaidakar?

Brandon Sanderson

RAFO.

Questioner

Whether she has or not, what is her opinion of Kelsier?

Brandon Sanderson

You’re asking, directly Autonomy, not one of her Avatars? Directly, Autonomy likes Kelsier and respects Kelsier. Autonomy is a fan, shall we say.

 

1 hour ago, Returned said:

I've been unclear about how Shard-to-Shard conflict actually plays out, and the events of Lost Metal have really upended my thinking there. Do you think that conventional/mundane operations (like military invasion or fomenting revolutions) are the primary, or most effective, mode of action when Shards fight one another?

Normally, I think of it as being more a contest of directing their Investiture to destroy the opposing Vessel, but Autonomy plays weird.

I think her Shard might have the unique ability to boot other Shards by Investing a place, much like how Trellium repells other Investitures. 

If her minions can get a strong foothold in a country or planet, perhaps their Connection to her Shard can reinforce her own to that place, letting her perform this strategy with greater ease.

[Green Hoodie Mistborn he/him]

Honestly I hope Era 3 has nothing to do with Autonomy. We had 4 books that dealt with their looming threat to Scadrial

I want Era 3 to deal with Saze’s slide into Discord and the ramifications of that for common people and the Ghostbloods of Roshar

IF autonomy comes back into play, I hope it’s a stinger/epilogue to Era 3 where they tempt Kelsier with the ability to leave Scadrial and maybe Allomancy back…

[JustQuestin2004 he/him]

16 hours ago, Returned said:

Do you think that conventional/mundane operations (like military invasion or fomenting revolutions) are the primary, or most effective, mode of action when Shards fight one another?

A big part of it depends on whether the defending Shard has the ability to simply SMITE any invasions. Endowment can smite people, for instance.

But if the Shard cannot act directly for one reason or another, then those types of indirect methods would work.

I'm pretty sure that a big part of Shardic Conflicts, provided that one lacks the ability to directly or indirectly kill the other, would be the ability to render the other impotent. After all, if Harmony had no one who was willing to work for him, like the Kandra and Wax, then how could he have stopped the Set and Autonomy's plans with his limited sight and actions?

[Returned he/him]

8 hours ago, JustQuestin2004 said:

I'm pretty sure that a big part of Shardic Conflicts, provided that one lacks the ability to directly or indirectly kill the other, would be the ability to render the other impotent. After all, if Harmony had no one who was willing to work for him, like the Kandra and Wax, then how could he have stopped the Set and Autonomy's plans with his limited sight and actions?

I'm still undecided about the mode of interaction between Shards. It seems unlikely, or at least very rare, for them to fight each other directly (like Dragonball Z characters blasting beams at each other). But I wonder if it's more like in American Gods, where the conflict among divinities has a "real" element which mortals can't really perceive but it plays out on a mortal stage in things like highway overpass collapses or train derailments.

Ruin seems to have been the most directly active, personally controlling Inquisitors, Kandra, and Koloss at times and always directing them strategically. Autonomy we know less about, working through agents for a while but personally Investing Telsyn while sending an army with mysterious properties, but  she's such an odd one out among Shards I have no idea if that's representative of others. Harmony almost cannot act directly (or so he tells us), and must act through agents for most things.

I really hope we learn more in Wind and Truth about how Odium struck at Ambition, Dominion, Devotion, and Honor. I'm not counting on it, though.

Edited November 14, 2024 by Returned