Reckon all them missing Shardblades are in Shinovar?

[RefusesToElaborate]

Okay, so I think Dalinars visions probably lean on the side of exaggeration. I have a feeling they're not exact snapshots of history, but vaguely authentic representations of what life was like at the time. Kind of like a grand strategy game. Crusader Kings remains historically accurate till the moment you unpause the start date. From that point on you are not playing a simulation of real history, just realistic history. That's what I think Dalinars visions are vaguely analogous to.  Which is why I kind of took Dalinar at his word that shardblades were exceedingly rare with only a few hundred in all of Roshar. What he saw at Feverstone Keep was something that probably didn't literally happen, but something that happened in small ways the world over. Honour just condensed it.

I believed a person becoming Radiant and then proceeding to believe the oaths in their heart? I think that kind of person would be exceedingly rare to begin with. And besides, a Radiant who didn't break their bond wouldn't drop a blade when they died. The spren could just find a new Radiant.

 

It makes sense then, that the upper limit on the number of Shardblades that can exist is identical to the number of Radiant spren that have lived. They seem to be vastly ournumbered by mankind. However, not all Spren want a bond. Some of them like the Inkspren thought it senseless to allow all of their number to make bonds.

 

Then we get to RoW. Hundreds of Deadeyes come to witness Adolins trial. Despite the fact that they are being summoned at that instant. All the people the world over summoning and dismissing baldes and the blades having to walk back to Lasting Integrity. And there's still hundreds in attendance. Dalinar accounts for roughly 200 shardblades, to my memory.

So now we ask, who do we know that would have Shard armed warriors but would never summom them? After all, there had to be a large enough group of warriors not summoning their blades to maintain that crowd.

I believe that most, if not all Shin warriors are armed with Shardblades.

Here are my evidences.

 

1. I'm a big brain Stoneward, my theories are correct and I need not provide evidence as it is beneath me. Excuse me while I go make Truthwatchers and Elsecallers exceedingly uncomfortable by driving with my windows down to make friendly conversation with fellow motorists, not wearing oversized hoodies to the gym and simultaneously making eye contact with every person in the room regardless of distance, direction and obstructions.

2. Shin warriors are not permitted to be traded outside of Shinovar. Despite being classless and thought of as little more than tools. Why would you care what happens to this thing, if it didn't carry something valuable? Something you didn't want your neighbours knowing you had. When Szeth is traded about he doesn't let his masters know he carries a Shard, I put it to you that this is not only to avoid violence, but to stop outsiders suspecting the Shin have countless blades. Szeth is probably a unique case here in that he is Truthless and as such possibly available for trade. You will note though that he wasn't traded for, the price that was paid was thrown away. As such Szeths owner did not trade him but freely gave him away.

3. Shin warriors met by Rysn, despite obviously being warriors marked by drab clothing, do not carry weapons. These warriors are owned by an exceedingly wealthy man, with clothing that scrapes grass despite him being atop a horse. If you can afford to get around dressed like that, you can pay to have your bodyguards carry a stick. The only reason they'd not have a stick is if they didn't need it.

4. Shin do have a specific taboo around touching weapons at all, however once you've touched one you are a warrior and you stay that way. It mirrors, in my eyes, the Alethi belief that touching a Shardblade makes you a Lighteyes of minimum 4th dahn. A belief so strong Amarams men handle Kaladins blade with towels.

5. This is just from a storytelling perspective. Imagine how bad it would be if an Unmade had corrupted the leadership of Shinovar, and then suddenly had access to lets say oh, about 300 Shardbearers? It would make a gut punch of a plot twist to see Shin warriors becoming MVP for team Odium out of nowhere.

 

[JustQuestin2004 he/him]

21 minutes ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

Okay, so I think Dalinars visions probably lean on the side of exaggeration. I have a feeling they're not exact snapshots of history, but vaguely authentic representations of what life was like at the time. Kind of like a grand strategy game. Crusader Kings remains historically accurate till the moment you unpause the start date. From that point on you are not playing a simulation of real history, just realistic history. That's what I think Dalinars visions are vaguely analogous to.  Which is why I kind of took Dalinar at his word that shardblades were exceedingly rare with only a few hundred in all of Roshar. What he saw at Feverstone Keep was something that probably didn't literally happen, but something that happened in small ways the world over. Honour just condensed it.

I believed a person becoming Radiant and then proceeding to believe the oaths in their heart? I think that kind of person would be exceedingly rare to begin with. And besides, a Radiant who didn't break their bond wouldn't drop a blade when they died. The spren could just find a new Radiant.

 

It makes sense then, that the upper limit on the number of Shardblades that can exist is identical to the number of Radiant spren that have lived. They seem to be vastly ournumbered by mankind. However, not all Spren want a bond. Some of them like the Inkspren thought it senseless to allow all of their number to make bonds.

 

Then we get to RoW. Hundreds of Deadeyes come to witness Adolins trial. Despite the fact that they are being summoned at that instant. All the people the world over summoning and dismissing baldes and the blades having to walk back to Lasting Integrity. And there's still hundreds in attendance. Dalinar accounts for roughly 200 shardblades, to my memory.

So now we ask, who do we know that would have Shard armed warriors but would never summom them? After all, there had to be a large enough group of warriors not summoning their blades to maintain that crowd.

I believe that most, if not all Shin warriors are armed with Shardblades.

Here are my evidences.

 

1. I'm a big brain Stoneward, my theories are correct and I need not provide evidence as it is beneath me. Excuse me while I go make Truthwatchers and Elsecallers exceedingly uncomfortable by driving with my windows down to make friendly conversation with fellow motorists, not wearing oversized hoodies to the gym and simultaneously making eye contact with every person in the room regardless of distance, direction and obstructions.

2. Shin warriors are not permitted to be traded outside of Shinovar. Despite being classless and thought of as little more than tools. Why would you care what happens to this thing, if it didn't carry something valuable? Something you didn't want your neighbours knowing you had. When Szeth is traded about he doesn't let his masters know he carries a Shard, I put it to you that this is not only to avoid violence, but to stop outsiders suspecting the Shin have countless blades. Szeth is probably a unique case here in that he is Truthless and as such possibly available for trade. You will note though that he wasn't traded for, the price that was paid was thrown away. As such Szeths owner did not trade him but freely gave him away.

3. Shin warriors met by Rysn, despite obviously being warriors marked by drab clothing, do not carry weapons. These warriors are owned by an exceedingly wealthy man, with clothing that scrapes grass despite him being atop a horse. If you can afford to get around dressed like that, you can pay to have your bodyguards carry a stick. The only reason they'd not have a stick is if they didn't need it.

4. Shin do have a specific taboo around touching weapons at all, however once you've touched one you are a warrior and you stay that way. It mirrors, in my eyes, the Alethi belief that touching a Shardblade makes you a Lighteyes of minimum 4th dahn. A belief so strong Amarams men handle Kaladins blade with towels.

5. This is just from a storytelling perspective. Imagine how bad it would be if an Unmade had corrupted the leadership of Shinovar, and then suddenly had access to lets say oh, about 300 Shardbearers? It would make a gut punch of a plot twist to see Shin warriors becoming MVP for team Odium out of nowhere.

 

This checks out for me. We already know they are the holders of most of the Honorblades and have been for literal millennia, so why not have slowly and sneakily collected a bunch of other magical swords that cut through anything. 

As said by Brandon for something else "If there are secret super-warriors to be had, you'd want to keep them for yourself".

[alder24]

4 hours ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

Okay, so I think Dalinars visions probably lean on the side of exaggeration. I have a feeling they're not exact snapshots of history, but vaguely authentic representations of what life was like at the time. Kind of like a grand strategy game. Crusader Kings remains historically accurate till the moment you unpause the start date. From that point on you are not playing a simulation of real history, just realistic history. That's what I think Dalinars visions are vaguely analogous to.  Which is why I kind of took Dalinar at his word that shardblades were exceedingly rare with only a few hundred in all of Roshar. What he saw at Feverstone Keep was something that probably didn't literally happen, but something that happened in small ways the world over. Honour just condensed it.

That's not true. The visions are very accurate, what's happening is programmed in a rigid structure and it's hard to go around this because it would just expose how thin this facade is. The Feverstone Keep happened as presented in real life - 300 Shardbearers were the first ones to give up their Shards and abandon their Oaths. Others did this all around Roshar, either in similar groups, or alone. It’s unlikely all Radiants left their Shardblades behind, many just broke their Oaths and left their spren dead in the Cognitive Realm (like Shallan did).

Spoiler

R'Shara

Is the vision that Dalinar of the Recreance; is that how it actually happened?

Brandon Sanderson

You can assume that even though it was a recreation, that it is accurate.

Skyward release party (Nov. 6, 2018)

OB ch 34:

Quote

You will find difficulty getting useful answers, Son of Honor, the Stormfather rumbled. These do not have souls or minds. They are recreations forged by Honor’s will, and do not have the memories of the real people.
“Surely we can learn things,” Dalinar said under his breath.
They were created to convey only certain ideas. Further pressing will merely reveal the thinness of the facade

 

4 hours ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

Then we get to RoW. Hundreds of Deadeyes come to witness Adolins trial. Despite the fact that they are being summoned at that instant. All the people the world over summoning and dismissing baldes and the blades having to walk back to Lasting Integrity. And there's still hundreds in attendance. Dalinar accounts for roughly 200 shardblades, to my memory.

Dalinar said there were 80 Shardblades known on Roshar in total. There were 300 Radiants with Shardplates and Shardblades just from two orders at the Feverstone Keep. WoK ch 52:

Quote

There looked to be a good two hundred Shardbearers out there. Alethkar owned some twenty Blades, Jah Keved a similar number. If one added up all the rest in the world, there might be enough total to equal the two powerful Vorin kingdoms. That meant, so far as he knew, there were less than a hundred Blades in all of the world. And here he saw two hundred Shardbearers gathered in one army. It was mind-numbing.
[...]
Soon, there were some three hundred Radiants out on the eld. They began summoning their Blades. The weapons appeared in their hands, like fog forming and condensing. It was done in silence. Their visors were down.

On the other hand, during the False Desolation all 2000 Honorspren answered the call and bonded with humans. Not everyone of those Radiants would have reached the 3rd Ideal, so not everyone of them would be able to summon their Shardblades. It's probably a reasonable explanation that most other races of spren were in similar numbers back then. That's around 10,000-20,000 bonded Radiants. However I had to also point out that about half of Shardblades ever owned by man after Recreance were lost in those millenia to weather, oceans and storms. 

Spoiler

Jofwu

It seems that deadeyes can wander Shadesmar freely, but when summoned as a Shardblade and subsequently dismissed, they end up at the location in Shadesmar corresponding to the location of the Shardbearer. How does this work for deadeyes who are cared for by a loved one, like Captain Ico?

Brandon Sanderson

They would vanish if their Shardblade were summoned.

Adam Horne

But it's been a while since that's happened, so it's not as much of a concern?

Brandon Sanderson

You can assume that there are more deadeyes wandering Shadesmar whose Shardblades have been lost, than there are ones that the Shardblades are kept. Probably about an equal number, I would say, 50/50. Though I would have to really crunch those numbers. I'd say that across 5000 years-ish... not quite, but you know. That a lot of those weapons, even though they are powerful and things like that, are gonna get lost. Ships are gonna get sunk; things get covered over with crem on Roshar; people go up to cross mountain passes to go attack, and they end up freezing and dying. And I think that over the years, there's been a ton of those that have been lost.

YouTube Spoiler Stream 4 (June 16, 2022)

 

4 hours ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

1. I'm a big brain Stoneward, my theories are correct and I need not provide evidence as it is beneath me. Excuse me while I go make Truthwatchers and Elsecallers exceedingly uncomfortable by driving with my windows down to make friendly conversation with fellow motorists, not wearing oversized hoodies to the gym and simultaneously making eye contact with every person in the room regardless of distance, direction and obstructions.

As a Truthwatcher I believe extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. 

Rysn met with Shins, she was weirded out by their warriors/guards but she didn't notice any of them being lighteyes - and they would be if Shin warriors were holding Shardblades. Shin soldiers are of the lowest class, the least respectable and there has been no fighting going on in Shinovar for centuries or millennia since the famed Shins invasions - I find it difficult to believe that all of Shin warriors have a Shardblade. However, it's worth pointing out that Rysn never made a comment about their eyes and she only said they were "keeping them down," so it might have been hard for her to see the color of their eyes.

4 hours ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

3. Shin warriors met by Rysn, despite obviously being warriors marked by drab clothing, do not carry weapons. These warriors are owned by an exceedingly wealthy man, with clothing that scrapes grass despite him being atop a horse. If you can afford to get around dressed like that, you can pay to have your bodyguards carry a stick. The only reason they'd not have a stick is if they didn't need it.

That indeed is interesting. Ok, you've sparked my interest. That's the extraordinary evidence I've been waiting for.

I've been believing for some time now that all those hundreds or thousands of missing Shardblades are held in Shinovar by the Stone Shamans, just like Honorblades are. However, I speculated they were simply there, kept hidden and stashed in some room, not being used, not being bonded. You did raise an interesting question - why don't Shin warriors carry a weapon? It make sense that they don't need any weapon because they already have one - hidden in a mist. While this is still a wild speculation, it is very sensible and in my opinion is quite likely to be true. 

[RefusesToElaborate]

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

That's not true. The visions are very accurate, what's happening is programmed in a rigid structure and it's hard to go around this because it would just expose how thin this facade is. The Feverstone Keep happened as presented in real life - 300 Shardbearers were the first ones to give up their Shards and abandon their Oaths. Others did this all around Roshar, either in similar groups, or alone. It’s unlikely all Radiants left their Shardblades behind, many just broke their Oaths and left their spren dead in the Cognitive Realm (like Shallan did).

  Reveal hidden contents

R'Shara

Is the vision that Dalinar of the Recreance; is that how it actually happened?

Brandon Sanderson

You can assume that even though it was a recreation, that it is accurate.

Skyward release party (Nov. 6, 2018)

OB ch 34:

 

Dalinar said there were 80 Shardblades known on Roshar in total. There were 300 Radiants with Shardplates and Shardblades just from two orders at the Feverstone Keep. WoK ch 52:

On the other hand, during the False Desolation all 2000 Honorspren answered the call and bonded with humans. Not everyone of those Radiants would have reached the 3rd Ideal, so not everyone of them would be able to summon their Shardblades. It's probably a reasonable explanation that most other races of spren were in similar numbers back then. That's around 10,000-20,000 bonded Radiants. However I had to also point out that about half of Shardblades ever owned by man after Recreance were lost in those millenia to weather, oceans and storms. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Jofwu

It seems that deadeyes can wander Shadesmar freely, but when summoned as a Shardblade and subsequently dismissed, they end up at the location in Shadesmar corresponding to the location of the Shardbearer. How does this work for deadeyes who are cared for by a loved one, like Captain Ico?

Brandon Sanderson

They would vanish if their Shardblade were summoned.

Adam Horne

But it's been a while since that's happened, so it's not as much of a concern?

Brandon Sanderson

You can assume that there are more deadeyes wandering Shadesmar whose Shardblades have been lost, than there are ones that the Shardblades are kept. Probably about an equal number, I would say, 50/50. Though I would have to really crunch those numbers. I'd say that across 5000 years-ish... not quite, but you know. That a lot of those weapons, even though they are powerful and things like that, are gonna get lost. Ships are gonna get sunk; things get covered over with crem on Roshar; people go up to cross mountain passes to go attack, and they end up freezing and dying. And I think that over the years, there's been a ton of those that have been lost.

YouTube Spoiler Stream 4 (June 16, 2022)

 

As a Truthwatcher I believe extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. 

Rysn met with Shins, she was weirded out by their warriors/guards but she didn't notice any of them being lighteyes - and they would be if Shin warriors were holding Shardblades. Shin soldiers are of the lowest class, the least respectable and there has been no fighting going on in Shinovar for centuries or millennia since the famed Shins invasions - I find it difficult to believe that all of Shin warriors have a Shardblade. However, it's worth pointing out that Rysn never made a comment about their eyes and she only said they were "keeping them down," so it might have been hard for her to see the color of their eyes.

That indeed is interesting. Ok, you've sparked my interest. That's the extraordinary evidence I've been waiting for.

I've been believing for some time now that all those hundreds or thousands of missing Shardblades are held in Shinovar by the Stone Shamans, just like Honorblades are. However, I speculated they were simply there, kept hidden and stashed in some room, not being used, not being bonded. You did raise an interesting question - why don't Shin warriors carry a weapon? It make sense that they don't need any weapon because they already have one - hidden in a mist. While this is still a wild speculation, it is very sensible and in my opinion is quite likely to be true. 

Friendo, looking at it with my Stoneward Chad stare, I think your evidences support my view of Dalinars visions. They're not accurate snapshots, they're authentic approximations of what the world was like during the desolations. That's why he can't interrogate the beings in his visions, because they're not a 1:1 recreation.

And I'll ask, if the events at Feverstone happened, why does so much screen time get dedicated to the fact that Jasnah, top historian, can't place it on a map.

Last thing she couldn't place on a map got found. Why not Feverstone?

I think actually that would prove to me that Dalinars visions are 1:1 historically accurate, finding Feverstone and visiting it, I mean. Maybe finding evidence of Shards abandoned on the field. Maybe finding the bodies.

The closest evidence I'd say is Odium saying he remembers these events, but... can he even witness Rosharan events while bound to Braize? We know that in HoA and TLM:

Spoiler

A shard being aware of something, at least according to Vins POV is the same as a shard being in the same location. Her awareness shifting is the same as movement to her perception. Also when one Shard is forced out of a location in TLM, they become blind to it.

If Odium truly remembers this, then the Radiants abandoned their Oaths during a desolation, which seems to be impossible as Kalak can see Radiants during the last desolation before he abandons the Oathpact. Either that, or Odium can see what other shards can't. Which to be frank, doesn't sit right with me.

 

But thats beside the point, I was just trying to illustrate that there's a notable and concerning gap between how many shardblades there are and how many the Rosharan peoples can account for. Enough that you can't chalk it up to "I guess some are missing." I was trying to prove that there are enough missing that someone is hoarding them.

 

I'm glad I did prove to you something was up with those Shin. I will say this, I don't believe any word an author uses slips in by accident. Especially when it comes to outline writing. I do believe there is a reason those Shin warriors kept their eyes down. I don't believe their owner demanded it.

In real life there's a reason the Secret Service masks their eyes with sunglasses. So you can't tell where they're looking. I think those Shin were masking their eyes so you couldn't tell they carried Shards.

Or better, so you can't tell which ones have bonded Shards.

[alder24]

4 minutes ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

Friendo, looking at it with my Stoneward Chad stare, I think your evidences support my view of Dalinars visions. They're not accurate snapshots, they're authentic approximations of what the world was like during the desolations. That's why he can't interrogate the beings in his visions, because they're not a 1:1 recreation.

Visions are accurate, they aren't just approximations or metaphors (except for the last one from WoK), they are accurate - the WoB confirms it in the clearest way possible. Honor also confirmed it. You can't interrogate people within vision because they aren't alive, they don't have any soul, or mind - they are just a facade masquerading within the construct of the vision. But the events presented in visions are accurate. WoK ch 75:

Quote

“Most of what I show you are scenes I have seen directly,” the figure said. 

 

7 minutes ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

And I'll ask, if the events at Feverstone happened, why does so much screen time get dedicated to the fact that Jasnah, top historian, can't place it on a map.

Because it happened 2,500 years ago, in an era where Radiants were a dominating society on the planet. The keep is long gone - Radiants are long gone as well. We know more or less where it is - near the city of Rall Elorim, which is in Iri. OB ch 85 epigraphs:

Quote

The enemy makes another push toward Feverstone Keep. I wish we knew what it was that had them so interested in that area. Could they be intent on capturing Rall Elorim?

 

10 minutes ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

Last thing she couldn't place on a map got found. Why not Feverstone?

Because it doesn't exist anymore. 

12 minutes ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

Maybe finding evidence of Shards abandoned on the field. Maybe finding the bodies.

After 2,500 years??? With Highstorms coming every 5 days, covering everything under a layer of crem?? It's impossible. Any remains of the keep are probably covered entirely by crem, just like the Stormset (Narak) is covered - so much crem that the ground level is now on the 2nd floor of Narak's original buildings. And don't make me start talking about bodies  

17 minutes ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

The closest evidence I'd say is Odium saying he remembers these events, but... can he even witness Rosharan events while bound to Braize? We know that in HoA and TLM

Yes, a Shard can focus on multiple places at the same time and yes, Odium can see things happening on Roshar while he's imprisoned on Braize (and he saw everything Dalinar did, he was there with him), because he's bound to the entire solar system with some restrictions added by the Oathpact (either directly or by the lack of his agents).

Spoiler

ZuperzubS

Hi Brandon, just to double check my understanding of things, Odium is still mostly bound on Braize right? Just that he can influence things on Roshar because of proximity?

Brandon Sanderson

I treat Braize, Ashyn, and Roshar as if they were almost one entity for a lot of Identity/Connection related issues. It's more than proximity, though proximity leads to it. We on Earth, I feel, would consider the moon and even Mars to be "ours" so to speak, part of our family of planets. Odium's binding, and that of the Heralds/Fused encompasses Roshar and Ashyn. There are some subtle distinctions, but for the most part, being bound on Braize is the same as being bound on Roshar.

mraize7

So Shadesmar is only from Roshar or from the three planets??

Brandon Sanderson

You can reach all three through Shadesmar, with a much shorter trip than to other systems. But the map we provide so far is only Roshar.

Phantine

Have you come up with a name for their star? It'd be easier to refer to all three by calling it the [???]ar/[sol]ar system instead of the Rosharan/[Earth]an system like we do now.

Brandon Sanderson

By people in world, it's being referred to as the Rosharan system. This is kind of confusing to us, because we focus on the suns to orient what makes a system. But in the cosmere, they travel directly to planets, and so the biggest trading planet becomes the source of naming conventions in most places. I agree it's a little confusing for us, but I believe it's the way it would naturally arise for them.

Uth-gnar

On the topic of the Rosharan solar system, do we get to learn about the significance of the 10 gas giants? We’re they there before the shards ever made their home there? Is that the ‘origin’ of the significance, in the context of the cosmere's natural laws?

Brandon Sanderson

RAFO, I'm afraid.

Rhythm of War Preview Q&As (Oct. 7, 2020)

 

20 minutes ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

If Odium truly remembers this, then the Radiants abandoned their Oaths during a desolation, which seems to be impossible as Kalak can see Radiants during the last desolation before he abandons the Oathpact. Either that, or Odium can see what other shards can't. Which to be frank, doesn't sit right with me.

It was a Desolation - the False Desolation. A time when Ba-Ado-Mishram - an Unmade - got bored waiting for Odium to return with his Fused and decided to start her own Desolation. She Connected herself to almost every Singer and granted them forms of power, starting the False Desolation. However there were no Fused and no Odium command. The Recreance and the event at the Feverstone Keep happened at the end of it, after BAM was imprisoned. RoW ch 73:

Quote

“Then how did we ever lose?” she asked.
Bah, it was a fluke. We couldn’t break the last Herald, and the humans found some way to pin the whole Oathpact on him. So we got stuck on Braize. Eventually the Unmade decided to start a war without us. That turned out to be exceedingly stupid. In the past, Odium granted forms of power, but Ba-Ado-Mishram thought she could do it. Ended up handing out forms of power as easily as Fused give each other titles, Connected herself to the entire singer species. Became a little god. Too little.
“I … don’t understand.”
I’ll bet you don’t. Basically, everyone relied way too much on an oversized spren. Trouble is, spren can get stuck in gemstones, and the humans figured this out. End result: Ba-Ado-Mishram got a really cramped prison, and everyone’s souls got seriously messed up.

 

25 minutes ago, RefusesToElaborate said:

But thats beside the point, I was just trying to illustrate that there's a notable and concerning gap between how many shardblades there are and how many the Rosharan peoples can account for. Enough that you can't chalk it up to "I guess some are missing." I was trying to prove that there are enough missing that someone is hoarding them.

I do agree fully with this point. And I do agree they are in Shinovar.