Placement of the Contest

[+Child of Hodor]

The question came up on Shardcast: when during book 5 will the contest of champions begin? I am very confident it will start early on in Part 5 similar to how the battle of Thayen Field started early in part 5. In other words most of the book is taking place over the 10 days between the end of RoW and SA5.

1) This contest of champions was mentioned as far back as book 1 and agreed to in 3. It's the climax of the front 5 he isn't putting it in part 2 of the book.

2) This wob from 2020 talks about how Brandon did something in book 4 that sets up a difficult challenge for him and Karen (his continuity editor) in book 5. Karen is the keeper of the timeline. She makes sure the correct moon is out during a night scene, where the highstorm is and things like that.  If most of the book is taking place over 10 days it will be very important to nail down who is doing what when and where in relation to each other. 

Quote

Brandon Sanderson

There are certain things that I do in Stormlight Four that I will not give as spoilers, but they're gonna make the writing of Stormlight Five particularly difficult.

Poor Karen. That's all gonna be stuff for Karen and me. It's gonna be headaches for us. Not as much for you [Isaac].

YouTube Livestream 21 (Oct. 29, 2020)

 

[alder24]

2 hours ago, Child of Hodor said:

The question came up on Shardcast: when during book 5 will the contest of champions begin? I am very confident it will start early on in Part 5 similar to how the battle of Thayen Field started early in part 5. In other words most of the book is taking place over the 10 days between the end of RoW and SA5.

1) This contest of champions was mentioned as far back as book 1 and agreed to in 3. It's the climax of the front 5 he isn't putting it in part 2 of the book.

2) This wob from 2020 talks about how Brandon did something in book 4 that sets up a difficult challenge for him and Karen (his continuity editor) in book 5. Karen is the keeper of the timeline. She makes sure the correct moon is out during a night scene, where the highstorm is and things like that.  If most of the book is taking place over 10 days it will be very important to nail down who is doing what when and where in relation to each other. 

10 days over 4/5 parts is a big stretch. Sure, Brandon can do that, but it's a very short period of time stretched over the entire book. For comparison WoR takes place over around 80 days. I don't think it will happen that late, I think it will happen at the end of part 1 or part 2 at most, and the rest of the book will deal with the consequences of the contest's result. I don't even think the contest will be the end of SA, or that it will be as simple as “Dalinar wins or Odium’s champion wins the fight” - the best loophole for Odium is the make Dalinar break the terms and that's what I think Taravangian is aiming for.

[Aredor]

I'm going to place the contest at the end of part 3. We know Sanderson plots the stormlight books as trilogies in the same book, so I theorize the contest will be at the end of the second 'book,' which often happens at the end of part 3 (the Duel In WoR, Kholinar in Oathbringer, I think the Highstorm in WoK.) This would, in my opinion, give enough time for the wrap-up after whatever happens during the contest, while still providing a challenge for Karen with continuity. 

[agrabes]

7 hours ago, Aredor said:

I'm going to place the contest at the end of part 3. We know Sanderson plots the stormlight books as trilogies in the same book, so I theorize the contest will be at the end of the second 'book,' which often happens at the end of part 3 (the Duel In WoR, Kholinar in Oathbringer, I think the Highstorm in WoK.) This would, in my opinion, give enough time for the wrap-up after whatever happens during the contest, while still providing a challenge for Karen with continuity. 

I think you're right.  The contest can't be the climax of the book because it feels way too straightforward and it leaves no time to set up the state of Roshar and the cosmere going forward.  Part 3 makes sense per Sanderson's SA book structure like you said.  If SA5 were the complete end of the SA then I could possibly see it.  Good guys win, Odium destroyed or otherwise handled forever, or a WoT type ending where the cycle starts fresh and a new age begins with the bad guy locked up.  But we know that's not the case - this is just the end of the first arc of Stormlight and we at least suspect that Odium's plot has bigger implications for the grand story of the Cosmere at large since he's been set up at least so far as the Cosmere's ultimate big bad.  That may not be true in the end, but it's what we're being set up for so far.

I think the timing/continuity aspect ties to the 10 day time limit and probably isn't relevant to where in the book the battle will be.  Sanderson probably wants the contest to tie into some kind of in world event such as a certain moon being in the sky, a highstorm being present on the battlefield, etc.  And most likely, saying that it will be 10 days until the contest puts him in a bind because the highstorm is supposed to be in a different place than he wants the battle or a different moon is in the sky, etc.

 

My personal theory is that the battle will happen early or at the midpoint of the book and the results are unexpected.  For example - Dalinar wins and per the deal Odium withdraws and returns Herdaz and Alethkar to the Knights Radiant.  However, something causes Dalinar to violate the terms of the agreement.  There could be a lot of things that could happen - maybe Dalinar becomes obligated to fight to conquer one of the nations he promised that Odium could keep.  Breaking the deal would void everything and set Odium free on Roshar and the Cosmere.  The contest itself is not exactly boring, but not super interesting, IMO.  What makes it exciting is the preparation leading up to it and the way everyone deals with the aftermath.  With the battle being only 10 days away, I can't really see either side doing anything too major for preparation.  It's not like Dalinar can go off and do a months long training arc.  Dalinar's plan is for Kaladin and Szeth to cure Ishar's madness enough without magic that he will train Dalinar in how to be a bondsmith.  I don't see that as something that can be done in 10 days.  With the way Sanderson has written mental illness up to this point I just don't see a true cure happening in that time.  And Ishar himself talks about gaining sanity for a short time so that he can explain how to fix the Oathpact, which feels like a longer term thing that's mostly unrelated to the Contest.  Shallan's quest is also unrelated to the Contest and feels like something that addresses the longer term situation on Roshar.  There's just not much interesting prep that can be done leading up to the battle.  So I think the bulk of the book has to be about the consequences of how the Contest goes weird - either winning with unexpected consequences or losing and salvaging the aftermath.  There is a lot of foreshadowing about this, imo.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

10 hours ago, Child of Hodor said:

The question came up on Shardcast: when during book 5 will the contest of champions begin? I am very confident it will start early on in Part 5 similar to how the battle of Thayen Field started early in part 5. In other words most of the book is taking place over the 10 days between the end of RoW and SA5.

I am sorry, but that avoids the elephant in the room. Will a contest take place at all?

10 hours ago, Child of Hodor said:

1) This contest of champions was mentioned as far back as book 1 and agreed to in 3. It's the climax of the front 5 he isn't putting it in part 2 of the book.

Brandon subverted a lot in Stormlight Archive. Jasnah spent years researching the voidbringers. It turned out to be useless.

8 hours ago, alder24 said:

I don't even think the contest will be the end of SA, or that it will be as simple as “Dalinar wins or Odium’s champion wins the fight” - the best loophole for Odium is the make Dalinar break the terms and that's what I think Taravangian is aiming for.

That is indeed his logical goal. We have Brandon's earlier reading:
Wit discovering that memories are missing

Hence the Radiant side won't be surprised. That raises a question. If they find the loophole, will they still want to carry on?

9 minutes ago, agrabes said:

I think you're right.  The contest can't be the climax of the book because it feels way too straightforward and it leaves no time to set up the state of Roshar and the cosmere going forward.  Part 3 makes sense per Sanderson's SA book structure like you said.

If the contest is not the solution of the Stormlight Archive, then we have a huge pile of loose ends. For example Kaladin should soon tell Dalinar/Jasnah/Navani that his/her uncle's/her husband's slave is an undead immortal from another world. Shallan and Adolin will have learned incredible things.

(Sunlit Man)

Spoiler

A certain highly invested object needs to be found and taken up

By that logic Brandon should pull another Rhythm of War. The ten days then are the first part where the Urithiru crew is busy conferencing via Seon with a specialist on shardic contracts. (Do we call such a specialist an arcane lawyer?). The rest of the book then deals with finding the true end of the first five books.

[agrabes]

10 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

I am sorry, but that avoids the elephant in the room. Will a contest take place at all?

Brandon subverted a lot in Stormlight Archive. Jasnah spent years researching the voidbringers. It turned out to be useless.

That is indeed his logical goal. We have Brandon's earlier reading:
Wit discovering that memories are missing

Hence the Radiant side won't be surprised. That raises a question. If they find the loophole, will they still want to carry on?

If the contest is not the solution of the Stormlight Archive, then we have a huge pile of loose ends. For example Kaladin should soon tell Dalinar/Jasnah/Navani that his/her uncle's/her husband's slave is an undead immortal from another world. Shallan and Adolin will have learned incredible things.

(Sunlit Man)

  Reveal hidden contents

A certain highly invested object needs to be found and taken up

By that logic Brandon should pull another Rhythm of War. The ten days then are the first part where the Urithiru crew is busy conferencing via Seon with a specialist on shardic contracts. (Do we call such a specialist an arcane lawyer?). The rest of the book then deals with finding the true end of the first five books.

I think it's a good point to bring up that there might not even be a contest.  It would honestly be cool if there wasn't, IMO.  As I was writing this response, I was thinking about why the Contest seems really lame to me.  I think it's because the stakes just don't really make a lot of sense from the point of view of the Rosharans.  The idea behind it was to try to stop Odium/Fused from destroying Roshar in war by tempting Odium with something he wants.  Good idea.  But now, the agreement means that basically nothing changes either way for the Rosharans.  So why should they care?  Worst case, Dalinar sacrifices himself to save millions of people and gives everyone a thousand years to prepare for the next time Odium comes back.  Dalinar should care personally and do his best to prepare himself to win and he should ready his people to continue without him should he fail.

In terms of is the Contest the resolution or not, I don't think making it not the solution leaves loose ends.  I don't really consider the things you're talking about to be loose ends that are relevant to the story of SA.  The things you're talking about are loose ends in terms of the wider story of the Cosmere as a whole but that story isn't over so they really aren't loose ends.  Kaladin knows that there's an offworlder working for Dalinar - but there's not really a need for him to pursue that any further and I don't think Dalinar or others learning that particular secret has much relevance to the story.  The immortal in question isn't going to get involved in Roshar's wars and Dalinar & Company can't make him.  Same with Shallan and Adolin - the things they learn that are relevant to Roshar will be revealed such as if they are able to find BAM, etc.  That's going to happen regardless - it's their main mission for SA5.  There might be a throwaway line in the falling action about how Shallan figured out some things about the Ghostbloods, the Cosmere, etc but it's not going to be center stage.

Honestly, I'd love it if Part 1 or Part 2 was the end of the Contest.  My ideal early plot might be something like this: Kaladin and Szeth go to Shin to talk to Ishar.  They find a way to talk with him without him trying to kill them, but quickly realize that talk therapy isn't going to work in 10 days and likely will never work since Ishar's madness is based in magic.  They have to scrap Dalinar's plan and try something else.  Adolin and Shallan get some kind of clue about how to find BAM and return to report in to Dalinar.  They leave quickly on a new mission to find and possibly restore BAM, possibly in conjunction with Rlain, Venli & Co.  El and Moash do something interesting and creepy, giving us a hint at Odium's plans and/or how their personal goals deviate from those plans.  Dalinar, Navani and Jasnah sit in Urithiru and contemplate strategy (both battle and philosophical) for the Contest.  The Contest happens, and the results are unexpected.  Whatever happens, it launches us into the true climactic conflict.  Whatever the true conflict is - it will have stakes that make sense as something extremely important for Roshar.

Ultimately, I think you have it right - Odium doesn't care about winning the contest.  His goal is to trick Dalinar into violating the agreement, which would free him to move around the Cosmere and do what he wants.  I think it's more interesting if he does that after Dalinar has already won the contest.  Or possibly before, if it happens without spending huge chunks of the book dwelling on the ten days.  I just don't really see a good story in spending the whole book preparing for a contest of champions where the result ultimately isn't relevant (if Odium succeeds in tricking Dalinar into violating the agreement) or isn't interesting (if Dalinar wins or loses and then everyone goes home to sit on their hands for 1000 years while Odium sends his agents out into the Cosmere).

[+Oltux72 he/him]

3 hours ago, agrabes said:

I think it's a good point to bring up that there might not even be a contest.  It would honestly be cool if there wasn't, IMO.  As I was writing this response, I was thinking about why the Contest seems really lame to me.  I think it's because the stakes just don't really make a lot of sense from the point of view of the Rosharans.  The idea behind it was to try to stop Odium/Fused from destroying Roshar in war by tempting Odium with something he wants.  Good idea.  But now, the agreement means that basically nothing changes either way for the Rosharans.  So why should they care?

Alethkar and Herdaz are major things to the Rosharans. They are not major gains to Hoid. His triumph is the contract they got Odium to agree to. Strategically, sorry to repeat a point, Hoid is using up the Rosharans to fight a delaying action against Odium. Now, it may be that the Hoid/Jasnah chapter Brandon read out of marks the beginning of the end of the alliance between Hoid and the Rosharans.

3 hours ago, agrabes said:

There might be a throwaway line in the falling action about how Shallan figured out some things about the Ghostbloods, the Cosmere, etc but it's not going to be center stage.

You have a point. Maybe we should ask what has immediate relevance:

• Odium's armies attacking one last time to shift the borders before they are frozen
• Finding the loophole
• Sja-Anat (Taravangian must very much suspect her of disloyalty)

The problem is that if I look at it that narrowly, I fail to see a justification for sending Kaladin & Szeth to Shinovar. Reforging the Oathpact is a long term priority. Dalinar isn't an idiot. He will not dream that Ishar has the one world-shaking secret of Bondsmithing, which he could learn in a few days well enough to use in the contest. Neither is finding Ba-Ado-Mishram. She has been stuck in a gemstone for over a thousand years. This going on for a few more months makes no difference. Neither is there a point in Adolin and Shallan even returning home, provided Lasting Integrity can supply so many humans. Or for the Honorspren they recruited to hurry to Urithiru.

4 hours ago, agrabes said:

Ultimately, I think you have it right - Odium doesn't care about winning the contest.  His goal is to trick Dalinar into violating the agreement, which would free him to move around the Cosmere and do what he wants.  I think it's more interesting if he does that after Dalinar has already won the contest.  Or possibly before, if it happens without spending huge chunks of the book dwelling on the ten days.  I just don't really see a good story in spending the whole book preparing for a contest of champions where the result ultimately isn't relevant (if Odium succeeds in tricking Dalinar into violating the agreement) or isn't interesting (if Dalinar wins or loses and then everyone goes home to sit on their hands for 1000 years while Odium sends his agents out into the Cosmere).

We know from the readings that

• something import and urgent happens, which Adolin and Shallan report in (do you think they are physically in Urithiru or is somebody sitting in front of a Seon all the time?)
• the Radiant side understands that there is a loophole in the contract

If Hoid and his associate can find the loophole, they will need to draw conclusions from it. That raises the question what they'll do if they find the issue unfixable?

And that leads me to a very dark corner, where my inner ruthless pseudo-Ghostblood wakes up. Can and should the Radiants abort the contest by killing Dalinar or having him unbond the Stormfather, if the issue is unfixable? Would Navani be bound by the contract?

[alder24]

9 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

That is indeed his logical goal. We have Brandon's earlier reading:
Wit discovering that memories are missing

Hence the Radiant side won't be surprised. That raises a question. If they find the loophole, will they still want to carry on?

Reading spoilers:

Spoiler

You assume that they will figure out that Rayse is dead and Taravangian Ascended. What if that's not true? What if they will think that Rayse is still in control, talk with a person who knows him and find a loophole Rayse would have used, but then be totally surprised on the day of the Contest that Taravangian is Odium and they will miss the loophole Taravangian saw?

 

9 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

If the contest is not the solution of the Stormlight Archive, then we have a huge pile of loose ends.

Not really, because if the contest's date is early on in the book, there is plenty of time to tie all those loose ends into a meaningful conclusion. 

9 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

For example Kaladin should soon tell Dalinar/Jasnah/Navani that his/her uncle's/her husband's slave is an undead immortal from another world.

You mean Zahel? So what? It doesn't really change anything and it doesn't feel honorable to spill out secrets of someone else.

9 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

(Sunlit Man)

  Hide contents

A certain highly invested object needs to be found and taken up

TSM spoilers:

Spoiler

That's far ahead in the future, he needs to be 37 years old first and he doesn't look that old yet.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

4 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Reading spoilers:

  Hide contents

You assume that they will figure out that Rayse is dead and Taravangian Ascended. What if that's not true? What if they will think that Rayse is still in control, talk with a person who knows him and find a loophole Rayse would have used, but then be totally surprised on the day of the Contest that Taravangian is Odium and they will miss the loophole Taravangian saw?

(Reading spoilers)

Spoiler

Then they will suffer a catastrophe.

Though isn't that the precise reason they want to contact an external specialist?

Let's list the possibilties

1. They find the loophole(s) and SA#5 is about closing them -> contest is at the end of the book
2. They find the loophole(s) and conclude that they must avoid having the contest -> I would say then the contest must be very early, for an alternative must be found
3. They fail to handle the loophole(s) for whatever reason -> contest must be early to deal with the consequences

13 minutes ago, alder24 said:

TSM spoilers:

  Hide contents

That's far ahead in the future, he needs to be 37 years old first and he doesn't look that old yet.

Why? Could you elaborate?

[alder24]

14 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

(Reading spoilers)

  Hide contents

Then they will suffer a catastrophe.

Though isn't that the precise reason they want to contact an external specialist?

Reading spoiiers:

Spoiler

True, they want to consult person who knows Rayse well. That means that either this person will realized it's not Rayse, or not and they will search for what Rayse could have used.

 

17 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Let's list the possibilties

1. They find the loophole(s) and SA#5 is about closing them -> contest is at the end of the book
2. They find the loophole(s) and conclude that they must avoid having the contest -> I would say then the contest must be very early, for an alternative must be found
3. They fail to handle the loophole(s) for whatever reason -> contest must be early to deal with the consequences

Agreed, not fully with point 1. The contest still might happen early, because Odium can't stop his troops and Fused to lay down their weapons. He agreed to enforce the peace, but earlier he said he can't expect them to follow him. That means if Dalinar wins the contest in the classical way, Odium will retreat but his troops might refuse to accept the peace, go rogue, thus the remaining book might deal with Dalinar trying to force them to accept the peace treaty - unlikely but that's still a possibility. RoW ch 112:

Quote

“I’ve told you that I cannot keep to these terms. I can seal myself away, but not my minions. I can demand that the Fused and the Unmade retreat—but not all currently obey my will. And I can do nothing about the Regals.”
[...] 
“Then let us stop dancing and commit. On the tenth, our champions meet. If you win, I will withdraw to the kingdoms I currently hold—and I enforce an end to the war. I will even give up to you Alethkar, and restore your homeland to you.”

 

32 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Why? Could you elaborate?

TSM spoilers:

Spoiler

Nomad was 38 years old when he became a Dawnshard, ch 11:

Quote

He’d been thirty-eight when time had finally stopped tracking him, his soul bending under the Dawnshard’s influence—and that was by his planet’s accounting, which had longer years than most.

He doesn't look 38 in RoW, but we don't know what his current age is. I think, based on the threads in the TSM section discussing the timeline, we can't expect him to become a Dawnshard in SA5, but we can expect him to break his Oaths in SA5. Something will happen that will trigger this response.

But we should stop discussing this here, we should not turn this into TSM topic.

 

[+Oltux72 he/him]

3 hours ago, alder24 said:

TSM spoilers:

  Hide contents

Nomad was 38 years old when he became a Dawnshard, ch 11:

He doesn't look 38 in RoW, but we don't know what his current age is. I think, based on the threads in the TSM section discussing the timeline, we can't expect him to become a Dawnshard in SA5, but we can expect him to break his Oaths in SA5. Something will happen that will trigger this response.

But we should stop discussing this here, we should not turn this into TSM topic.

 

(Sunlit Man)

Spoiler

I would take that as the Dawnshard needing considerable time to kick in.

 

[agrabes]

15 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Alethkar and Herdaz are major things to the Rosharans. They are not major gains to Hoid. His triumph is the contract they got Odium to agree to. Strategically, sorry to repeat a point, Hoid is using up the Rosharans to fight a delaying action against Odium. Now, it may be that the Hoid/Jasnah chapter Brandon read out of marks the beginning of the end of the alliance between Hoid and the Rosharans.

You have a point. Maybe we should ask what has immediate relevance:

• Odium's armies attacking one last time to shift the borders before they are frozen
• Finding the loophole
• Sja-Anat (Taravangian must very much suspect her of disloyalty)

The problem is that if I look at it that narrowly, I fail to see a justification for sending Kaladin & Szeth to Shinovar. Reforging the Oathpact is a long term priority. Dalinar isn't an idiot. He will not dream that Ishar has the one world-shaking secret of Bondsmithing, which he could learn in a few days well enough to use in the contest. Neither is finding Ba-Ado-Mishram. She has been stuck in a gemstone for over a thousand years. This going on for a few more months makes no difference. Neither is there a point in Adolin and Shallan even returning home, provided Lasting Integrity can supply so many humans. Or for the Honorspren they recruited to hurry to Urithiru.

We know from the readings that

• something import and urgent happens, which Adolin and Shallan report in (do you think they are physically in Urithiru or is somebody sitting in front of a Seon all the time?)
• the Radiant side understands that there is a loophole in the contract

If Hoid and his associate can find the loophole, they will need to draw conclusions from it. That raises the question what they'll do if they find the issue unfixable?

And that leads me to a very dark corner, where my inner ruthless pseudo-Ghostblood wakes up. Can and should the Radiants abort the contest by killing Dalinar or having him unbond the Stormfather, if the issue is unfixable? Would Navani be bound by the contract?

I think it's interesting - I'm approaching this with the idea that SA5 and the first SA arc should be about things that matter to Rosharans first and foremost.  Hoid can want what he wants and he can help here and there, but (I really hope at least) this book is not about him achieving his goals.  I hadn't been keeping up with the new readings but I did check out the one you mentioned.  I don't really think there ever was an alliance between Hoid and the Rosharans.  Hoid is out to achieve his own goal, but whatever that goal is, it's not the story of at least SA1-5.  His story just overlaps with it a bit, like it does with all the other cosmere books.

It terms of your second paragraph, I see what you mean.  But I'm looking at it sort of as a set of mixed goals.  Winning the contest is important, but Dalinar knows that winning the contest isn't everything.  It just takes away the immediate threat of being ground to powder by the constantly regenerating Fused.  There are a million other things to do.  So, I think what Dalinar is doing is basically saying he will handle the Contest mostly on his own because at the end of the day no one else can help him anyway.  He's already on to the next thing and putting contingency plans in place by getting things going with BAM and Ishar.  We haven't seen it yet, but I'm sure he and Navani also come up with plans for how to build on what they've done so far at Urithiru and how the Sibling is now awake, etc.

From the readings, we do know that Adolin and Shallan report in, but do we know it's about something urgent?  I think they are just reporting in to say "Mission Complete, here's what we learned.  Now what should we do next?  Here's what we think we should do."

 

What I honestly think is that Odium does get his loophole.  It would make a ton of narrative sense.  Odium leaves Roshar and runs out into the greater cosmere.  That leads to really cool stories and really starts shifting the conflict to a cosmere scale.  Odium "wins" and scrams out of Roshar/Braize.  This leaves our heroes free to deal with the local problems that are affecting Roshar and get things in a pretty good place by the end of SA5.  They probably do something like broker a peace agreement with the Singers and maybe even the Fused.  SA5 ends with Roshar mostly safe but our heroes are feeling really guilty knowing they've unleashed a great evil on the rest of the cosmere.  They are safe, but everyone else is not.  So they spend the "gap years" training and building cosmere knowledge so that in SA6-10 they take the fight to Odium wherever he is.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

5 hours ago, agrabes said:

I think it's interesting - I'm approaching this with the idea that SA5 and the first SA arc should be about things that matter to Rosharans first and foremost.  Hoid can want what he wants and he can help here and there, but (I really hope at least) this book is not about him achieving his goals.  I hadn't been keeping up with the new readings but I did check out the one you mentioned.  I don't really think there ever was an alliance between Hoid and the Rosharans.  Hoid is out to achieve his own goal, but whatever that goal is, it's not the story of at least SA1-5.  His story just overlaps with it a bit, like it does with all the other cosmere books.

Let's look at the contract. There is a limit to how much a battlefield under preindustrial conditions can can change in ten days. The contest is in essence about Herdaz and Alethkar. Hence the results, win or lose, amount to:

• the Radiants lose at least about 1/3 of Roshar
• Odium remains bound to the system for 1000 years

I am sorry, but that is essentially what Hoid wants, not the Radiants (I don't want to write Rosharans, as the people in Jah Keved and elsewhere are also Rosharans)
Why do they agree? They get peace. Yet a deal that would give Odium a chance at freedom for more territory would be better for them.

5 hours ago, agrabes said:

So, I think what Dalinar is doing is basically saying he will handle the Contest mostly on his own because at the end of the day no one else can help him anyway.  He's already on to the next thing and putting contingency plans in place by getting things going with BAM and Ishar.  We haven't seen it yet, but I'm sure he and Navani also come up with plans for how to build on what they've done so far at Urithiru and how the Sibling is now awake, etc.

I would say that Dalinar is not confident to survive this. He knows that the Radiants will have less need for generalship in the future, yet they will need Bondsmiths.

5 hours ago, agrabes said:

From the readings, we do know that Adolin and Shallan report in, but do we know it's about something urgent?  I think they are just reporting in to say "Mission Complete, here's what we learned.  Now what should we do next?  Here's what we think we should do."

(Tampa Bay Comic Convention - Reading from SA#5)

Spoiler

A man with discretion to match his general poise, she trusted him as much as she trusted any, so she wasn’t bothered as he glanced at Wit as he approached. “What?” she said to him, light spilling from the guardroom into her quarters.

“Radiant Shallan and Highprince Adolin have something to report,” he whispered. [Brandon: I’m gonna cut that out so you have some anticipation for what’s coming.] “Your uncle has called for a meeting immediately, despite the hour.”

The scheduling is quite indicative of urgency. That said, do you think they are physically present or have they just made a report via Seon?

The obvious think that they could have found out is that Rayse is dead. Is Sja-Anat in Lasting Integrity, asking for sanctuary?

5 hours ago, agrabes said:

What I honestly think is that Odium does get his loophole.  It would make a ton of narrative sense.  Odium leaves Roshar and runs out into the greater cosmere.  That leads to really cool stories and really starts shifting the conflict to a cosmere scale.  Odium "wins" and scrams out of Roshar/Braize.

Why? Why would he forgo securing his home base? I must admit I see no obvious way for Odium to get his loophole and yet the war to end in SA#5. That means a lot must happen in SA#5 and other readings did not show threads being closed, but new threads of action starting.

The loophole has been talked about so much, that it not being taken would be disappointing. Hence a lot of new stuff needs to happen. Hence I expect the contest or a decision to find a way to avoid it to come almost immediately. I cannot help fearing an SA#5 whose Sanderlanche starts in chapter 4, figuratively speaking.

[agrabes]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:24 AM, Oltux72 said:

Let's look at the contract. There is a limit to how much a battlefield under preindustrial conditions can can change in ten days. The contest is in essence about Herdaz and Alethkar. Hence the results, win or lose, amount to:

• the Radiants lose at least about 1/3 of Roshar
• Odium remains bound to the system for 1000 years

I am sorry, but that is essentially what Hoid wants, not the Radiants (I don't want to write Rosharans, as the people in Jah Keved and elsewhere are also Rosharans)
Why do they agree? They get peace. Yet a deal that would give Odium a chance at freedom for more territory would be better for them.

I would say that Dalinar is not confident to survive this. He knows that the Radiants will have less need for generalship in the future, yet they will need Bondsmiths.

(Tampa Bay Comic Convention - Reading from SA#5)

  Reveal hidden contents

A man with discretion to match his general poise, she trusted him as much as she trusted any, so she wasn’t bothered as he glanced at Wit as he approached. “What?” she said to him, light spilling from the guardroom into her quarters.

“Radiant Shallan and Highprince Adolin have something to report,” he whispered. [Brandon: I’m gonna cut that out so you have some anticipation for what’s coming.] “Your uncle has called for a meeting immediately, despite the hour.”

The scheduling is quite indicative of urgency. That said, do you think they are physically present or have they just made a report via Seon?

The obvious think that they could have found out is that Rayse is dead. Is Sja-Anat in Lasting Integrity, asking for sanctuary?

Why? Why would he forgo securing his home base? I must admit I see no obvious way for Odium to get his loophole and yet the war to end in SA#5. That means a lot must happen in SA#5 and other readings did not show threads being closed, but new threads of action starting.

The loophole has been talked about so much, that it not being taken would be disappointing. Hence a lot of new stuff needs to happen. Hence I expect the contest or a decision to find a way to avoid it to come almost immediately. I cannot help fearing an SA#5 whose Sanderlanche starts in chapter 4, figuratively speaking.

You're right - the contract is based on what Hoid wants.  He had a huge hand in writing it and the Rosharans are basing a lot of their decisions on what he tells them.  That's why to me, it feels like a lame conclusion to the front 5 books if the Rosharans are doing this all to achieve Hoid's goals and not their own.  I think you're right that Jasnah is waking up to this and realizing that Hoid isn't working for their interests even if he does help them sometimes. 

Also - I definitely missed the part in that reading where it said they called a meeting within an hour.  So, yeah definitely was urgent!  I think they are there in person - hence the meeting in the middle of the night.  But I don't really feel strongly one way another.

In terms of Odium and his overall strategy: the whole purpose of the Oathpact was to keep Odium trapped on Roshar.  I don't think it's his chosen home territory, I think it's his prison.  He wants to be out splintering shards which is what he was doing prior to being trapped on Roshar.  So if he get the ability to leave, he's gone.  We're supposed to be afraid that he will get loose and destroy the Cosmere and the whole premise of the story is that our heroes have been told by the Stormfather and by Hoid that they have to keep him trapped on Roshar to honor the oaths made by Honor and those who came before them.  I personally think that Odium is not actually as strong as we think.  Him getting free now would be a problem, but not as catastrophic as we're being led to believe by the Stormfather and Hoid.

[alder24]

On 1/3/2024 at 9:24 AM, Oltux72 said:

Let's look at the contract. There is a limit to how much a battlefield under preindustrial conditions can can change in ten days. The contest is in essence about Herdaz and Alethkar. Hence the results, win or lose, amount to:

• the Radiants lose at least about 1/3 of Roshar
• Odium remains bound to the system for 1000 years

I am sorry, but that is essentially what Hoid wants, not the Radiants

14 minutes ago, agrabes said:

You're right - the contract is based on what Hoid wants

What contract are you talking about? Odium outright rejected Hoid's contract because he can't keep it. The real terms are as following RoW ch 112:

Quote

“It is time for a true accommodation. A true ending. Do you not agree?”
“I … Yes. I realize it. What do you propose?”
Odium waved dismissively at the contract Wit had drawn up. “No more talk of delays, of sending me away. Of half measures. We have a contest of champions on the tenth of next month,” Odium said. “At the tenth hour.”
“So soon? The month ends tomorrow.”
“Why delay?” Odium asked. “I know my champion. Do you know yours?”
“I do,” Dalinar said.
“Then let us stop dancing and commit. On the tenth, our champions meet. If you win, I will withdraw to the kingdoms I currently hold—and I enforce an end to the war. I will even give up to you Alethkar, and restore your homeland to you.”
“I must have Herdaz too.”
“What?” Odium said. “That meaningless little plot of land? What are they to you?”
“It’s the matter of an oath, Odium,” Dalinar said. “You will restore to me Herdaz and Alethkar. Keep whatever other lands you’ve taken; they mostly followed you freely anyway. I can accept this, so long as you are still trapped on Roshar, as Honor wished.”
“I will,” Odium said, “though I will be able to focus my attentions on sending agents to the rest of the cosmere, using what I’ve conquered here as enough for now. However, if I win the contest of champions, I keep everything I’ve conquered—Herdaz and Alethkar included. And I want one other small thing. I want you, Dalinar.”
“My life? Odium, I intend to be my own champion. I’ll have died if you win.”
“Yes,” Odium said, eyes shining golden. “You will have. And you will give your soul to me. You, Dalinar, will join the Fused. You will become immortal, and will personally serve me. Bound by your oaths. You will be the one I send to the stars to serve my interests in the cosmere.”
A cold shock ran through Dalinar. Like he’d felt the first time he’d been stabbed. Surprise, disbelief, terror.
You will join the Fused.
“Are we agreed?” Odium said, his skin now glowing so brightly that his features were difficult to make out. “You have gotten from me more than I ever thought I would give up. Either way, the war ends and you will have secured the safety of your allies. At the cost of gambling your own soul. How far does your honor extend, Blackthorn?”
[...]
He took a deep breath. “Final terms are these: A contest of champions to the death. On the tenth day of the month Palah, tenth hour. We each send a willing champion, allowed to meet at the top of Urithiru, otherwise unharmed by either side’s forces. If I win that contest, you will remain bound to the system—but you will return Alethkar and Herdaz to me, with all of their occupants intact. You will vow to cease hostilities and maintain the peace, not working against my allies or our kingdoms in any way.”
“Agreed,” Odium said. “But if I win, I keep everything I’ve won— including your homeland. I still remain bound to this system, and will still cease hostilities as you said above. But I will have your soul. To serve me, immortal. Will you do this? Because I agree to these terms.”

No 1000 years, permanent peace and imprisonment. Radiants won't lose anything more than what was already taken, most of those lands followed Odium freely except for Alethkar and Herdaz. The only contribution of Hoid in this contract was "keep Odium here" and even that was mainly because of Honor: 

Quote

He didn’t trust Wit much, but he didn’t trust Odium at all. Besides, if Honor had died to trap this god here on Roshar, Dalinar had to believe the Almighty had done so for good reason.

 

24 minutes ago, agrabes said:

the whole purpose of the Oathpact was to keep Odium trapped on Roshar

The Oathpact is separate from Odium's imprisonment on Roshar. Honor did that. Oathpact traps Fused and Voidspren on Braize and possibly limits Odium's reach to Braize mainly.

[Master Silver]

I just realized three things. 1) Odium only remains bound if Dalinar wins or Odium wins, not if it is a draw. 2) On the tenth day of the month Palah, tenth hour. It does not give a year. Nor does it say next month. 3) If Odium offers Dalinar's allied kingdoms a separate peace for breaking their alliance with Dalinar, Odium can then attack them at a later date. Also Odium can conquer all neutral kingdoms (Shinnovar) and third party kingdoms (Ishar's kingdom)

[alder24]

14 hours ago, Master Silver said:

2) On the tenth day of the month Palah, tenth hour. It does not give a year. Nor does it say next month.

It does. Earlier they said "next month" and this is the spirit of the contract. 

Quote

“No more talk of delays, of sending me away. Of half measures. We have a contest of champions on the tenth of next month,” Odium said. “At the tenth hour.”
“So soon? The month ends tomorrow.”
“Why delay?” Odium asked. “I know my champion. Do you know yours?”

Not to mention El counting 10 last days - "Musings of El, on the first of the Final Ten Days." 

14 hours ago, Master Silver said:

3) If Odium offers Dalinar's allied kingdoms a separate peace for breaking their alliance with Dalinar, Odium can then attack them at a later date. Also Odium can conquer all neutral kingdoms (Shinnovar) and third party kingdoms (Ishar's kingdom)

That's not possible. Odium promised Dalinar not only a peace, but also maintaining this peace and not working against Dalinar's allies and their kingdoms in any way. Earlier he also promised to withdraw to his holdings, so attacking neutral kingdoms is also off the table.

Quote

If you win, I will withdraw to the kingdoms I currently hold—and I enforce an end to the war. [...]
You will vow to cease hostilities and maintain the peace, not working against my allies or our kingdoms in any way. [...]
and will still cease hostilities as you said above.

Intent matters, that's why the words said earlier are important too. That's what they had in mind when finalizing terms. This is the spirit of their agreement. OB ch 122:

Quote

“Should we write … a contract?”
“Our word is the contract. I am not some spren of Honor, who seeks to obey only the strictest letter of a promise. If you have an agreement from me, I will keep it in spirit, not merely in word.”

[+Oltux72 he/him]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:35 AM, agrabes said:

I think it's interesting - I'm approaching this with the idea that SA5 and the first SA arc should be about things that matter to Rosharans first and foremost.  Hoid can want what he wants and he can help here and there, but (I really hope at least) this book is not about him achieving his goals.  I hadn't been keeping up with the new readings but I did check out the one you mentioned.  I don't really think there ever was an alliance between Hoid and the Rosharans.  Hoid is out to achieve his own goal, but whatever that goal is, it's not the story of at least SA1-5.  His story just overlaps with it a bit, like it does with all the other cosmere books.

That is a bit hard to do. The whole history of Roshar depends on Honor trapping Odium in the Rosharan system.

19 hours ago, agrabes said:

In terms of Odium and his overall strategy: the whole purpose of the Oathpact was to keep Odium trapped on Roshar.  I don't think it's his chosen home territory, I think it's his prison.  He wants to be out splintering shards which is what he was doing prior to being trapped on Roshar.  So if he get the ability to leave, he's gone.

That very much raises the question why the Radiants do not make an offer to release him.

19 hours ago, alder24 said:

No 1000 years, permanent peace and imprisonment. Radiants won't lose anything more than what was already taken, most of those lands followed Odium freely except for Alethkar and Herdaz. The only contribution of Hoid in this contract was "keep Odium here" and even that was mainly because of Honor:

Yes, but they admit their position. The treaty acknowledges the realities on the battlefirld. And those are that the Radiants are losing. Hence they are reday to finalize their losses.

19 hours ago, alder24 said:

The only contribution of Hoid in this contract was "keep Odium here" and even that was mainly because of Honor:

Saying this is heretic, but that is the decision of a man selected by the being merged with the CS of Tanavast. A man bonded to that being. A man who has spent years in the presence of an emotional allomancer who shares that goal.
It is not in the best interest of Roshar. Jasnah or the other monarchs would not make that decision on their own.

15 hours ago, Master Silver said:

I just realized three things. 1) Odium only remains bound if Dalinar wins or Odium wins, not if it is a draw.

In case of a draw it would seem to me that the status quo before the contest would persist. The war would go on.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Intent matters, that's why the words said earlier are important too. That's what they had in mind when finalizing terms. This is the spirit of their agreement. OB ch 122:

The Jasnah and Hoid scene (Brandon's reading from SA#5 at Tampa)

That very much implies that they have a written contract.

[agrabes]

19 hours ago, alder24 said:

What contract are you talking about? Odium outright rejected Hoid's contract because he can't keep it. The real terms are as following RoW ch 112:

No 1000 years, permanent peace and imprisonment. Radiants won't lose anything more than what was already taken, most of those lands followed Odium freely except for Alethkar and Herdaz. The only contribution of Hoid in this contract was "keep Odium here" and even that was mainly because of Honor: 

 

The Oathpact is separate from Odium's imprisonment on Roshar. Honor did that. Oathpact traps Fused and Voidspren on Braize and possibly limits Odium's reach to Braize mainly.

He rejected Hoid's contract, but the final contract is not much different than Hoid's original contract.  And Hoid cares most about Odium being bound.  And there are no real stakes to the contract for Dalinar other than Hoid being bound.  He wins - great he gets some of his territory back but Odium's still around.  He loses, and everyone still has peace and loses no ground from their current state.  They only lose him.  I don't see why they should be overly afraid of that - he is not that much more powerful than all the other powerful fused that Odium can call on and they already have another bondsmith.  Dalinar's bond to the Stormfather won't go with him if he dies and becomes a Fused, so someone else could eventually take his place as bondsmith.  The stakes are just too low for the Rosharans - barely anything changes either way.  

It's not going to be a permanent peace - it would make no sense for Odium to agree to that.  They didn't say "permanent".  They didn't say it specifically, but there must be some time limit on it.  It's probably the original 1000 year term.  The only terms changed from Hoid's original deal (at least the part we know about since it was a sheet of paper and could have held more than Dalinar and Odium discussed) are that the Fused and Voidspren won't be locked away.  They will only be ordered by Odium not to attack Dalinar and his allies, which is effectively the same thing.  This is Hoid's deal.

What the Rosharans want is to end the cycle of desolations.  They want to make it so that they no longer have an evil god living on their world, bent on their destruction so that he can be freed into the cosmere.  They want to win the war or have a real peace to end it.  That requires destroying Odium or letting him go free.  This deal doesn't do that for them and they only accepted because they were sure they would lose without it.  It's possible they could get a 1000 year deal at the end of SA5 and then in SA6-10 we come back 1000 years later to see them fight to actually win for real.  But that doesn't really seem to line up with the overall cosmere timeline.  Maybe it would happen though - can't say I'm an expert in that stuff.

[alder24]

30 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Yes, but they admit their position. The treaty acknowledges the realities on the battlefirld. And those are that the Radiants are losing. Hence they are reday to finalize their losses.

And is this something bad? I don't understand your point here.

8 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

It is not in the best interest of Roshar. Jasnah or the other monarchs would not make that decision on their own.

Actually it is a pretty good deal. Peace is guaranteed no matter who wins. Both humans and Singers will have their place on Roshar. Desolations will end. I doubt Jasnah would do better, she even admitted Dalinar knows Odium better. She isn't against those terms in the reading of KoWT.

9 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

The Jasnah and Hoid scene (Brandon's reading from SA#5 at Tampa)

That very much implies that they have a written contract.

No they don't... Dalinar just wrote that down to spread information to other fractions via spanreeds and keep the details of it imprinted so they won't forget them. Do you expect Dalinar to verbally spread the terms of the contest to everyone? It's much better to analyze a document like that when you have a written copy of it, not something you try to pull out of your mind. Shards don't need any piece of paper.

 

7 minutes ago, agrabes said:

He rejected Hoid's contract, but the final contract is not much different than Hoid's original contract.  And Hoid cares most about Odium being bound.  And there are no real stakes to the contract for Dalinar other than Hoid being bound.  He wins - great he gets some of his territory back but Odium's still around.  He loses, and everyone still has peace and loses no ground from their current state.  They only lose him. 

I would say this is a quite big deal for Dalinar. It's not that he will die, he will become a Fused, leading Odium's army into Cosmere. That's huge. 

8 minutes ago, agrabes said:

The stakes are just too low for the Rosharans - barely anything changes either way.  

True, that's why I don't think the contest will happen at all.

9 minutes ago, agrabes said:

It's not going to be a permanent peace - it would make no sense for Odium to agree to that. 

That's what Odium said. "A true ending," "an end to the war," etc. His words were very clear that he wants to end this war on Roshar and finally focus on Cosmere, sending his agents out there. 

12 minutes ago, agrabes said:

They didn't say it specifically, but there must be some time limit on it. 

Disagree. 

14 minutes ago, agrabes said:

It's possible they could get a 1000 year deal at the end of SA5 and then in SA6-10 we come back 1000 years later to see them fight to actually win for real.  But that doesn't really seem to line up with the overall cosmere timeline.  Maybe it would happen though - can't say I'm an expert in that stuff.

SA 5 happens 10-15 years after KoWT.

[agrabes]

8 minutes ago, alder24 said:

And is this something bad? I don't understand your point here.

Actually it is a pretty good deal. Peace is guaranteed no matter who wins. Both humans and Singers will have their place on Roshar. Desolations will end. I doubt Jasnah would do better, she even admitted Dalinar knows Odium better. She isn't against those terms in the reading of KoWT.

No they don't... Dalinar just wrote that down to spread information to other fractions via spanreeds and keep the details of it imprinted so they won't forget them. Do you expect Dalinar to verbally spread the terms of the contest to everyone? It's much better to analyze a document like that when you have a written copy of it, not something you try to pull out of your mind. Shards don't need any piece of paper.

 

I would say this is a quite big deal for Dalinar. It's not that he will die, he will become a Fused, leading Odium's army into Cosmere. That's huge. 

True, that's why I don't think the contest will happen at all.

That's what Odium said. "A true ending," "an end to the war," etc. His words were very clear that he wants to end this war on Roshar and finally focus on Cosmere, sending his agents out there. 

Disagree. 

SA 5 happens 10-15 years after KoWT.

When Odium said a true ending, etc he was referencing the current hostilities.  He was trying to stop Dalinar from stalling for more time to make a better deal.  He doesn't say clearly if it's intended to be permanent as in forever.  And other things he says imply that it is not.  For example, he says "I will be able to focus my attentions on sending agents to the rest of the cosmere, using what I've conquered here as enough for now."  He wouldn't say "for now" if he meant he would never be able to conquer the rest of Roshar.

[alder24]

13 minutes ago, agrabes said:

When Odium said a true ending, etc he was referencing the current hostilities. 

Was he? I don't agree. In my opinion he was talking about the end of Desolations as the whole. Current hostilities are just a part of the same war that has been going on for 7000 years. It's the same war, one war, even Fused and Voidspren call it that way. RoW ch 76:

Quote

“So long ago,” Raboniel said, with a soft, almost indistinguishable cadence to her words. “So very, very long ago. What has it been? Seven thousand years? I don’t think you can comprehend how tired I am of this war, Navani. How tired all of us are. Your Heralds too.”

OB I-3:

Quote

“Well, do you want to guess how long we’ve been fighting this war?” Ulim asked. “Go ahead. Guess. I’m waiting.”

For them it's one long war. For Odium it's the same. 

[Master Silver]

I've heard this phrase, "new you new me." When playing RTSs. Wouldn't that apply here. The old Odium was tired of the conflict. But there is a new Odium. Plenty of new powers and abilities to test out. Besides, if he thinks it is in the best interest of mankind for him to win, then he will do what it takes to win. Perhaps, just replace the old fused with new fused? Batta bing batta boom. 

On the other side of things, I think Dalinar's assessment that they would lose this war is wrong. Presumably the Radiants are just hitting their stride. None of the heralds are pulling their weight. They only just got their second bond smith. They have a bunch more Honor spren on the way, which means more squires. I honestly think that Radiants would continue to gain the upper hand both in terms of raw investiture on the battlefield and technological advantage. 

[alder24]

10 hours ago, Master Silver said:

I've heard this phrase, "new you new me." When playing RTSs. Wouldn't that apply here. The old Odium was tired of the conflict. But there is a new Odium. Plenty of new powers and abilities to test out. Besides, if he thinks it is in the best interest of mankind for him to win, then he will do what it takes to win. Perhaps, just replace the old fused with new fused? Batta bing batta boom. 

Taravangian still wants to continue Rayse's plans and get out into Cosmere, he wants to "save them all," and he clearly sees the flaws of the terms. Sure, there will be changes, but I think we can safely assume Taravangian wants to get out of Roshar just like Rayse wanted. Continuation of this war won’t bring him any closer to achieving this goal.

We don't know how Fused are made, it might not be that simple if the process involves something more than just investiture, like fusing the souls of Singers with True Spren or something else suggested by other theories.

10 hours ago, Master Silver said:

On the other side of things, I think Dalinar's assessment that they would lose this war is wrong. Presumably the Radiants are just hitting their stride. None of the heralds are pulling their weight. They only just got their second bond smith. They have a bunch more Honor spren on the way, which means more squires. I honestly think that Radiants would continue to gain the upper hand both in terms of raw investiture on the battlefield and technological advantage. 

The only way Dalinar can win this war is by killing every single Singer that lives. That's the only way to make sure they will stop fighting, that Fused and Voidspren won't have any hosts, and the war will end. There is no other way of winning this war. Every Fused they kill will be reborn, while every Radiant they lose won't. Heralds don't want to participate, they are broken. This would be comparable to Desolations just before Aharietiam - humans won all of them, but each of them brough massive destruction and pushed their back technologically to the point when they were using bronze, not steel. This isn't sustainable. 

[+Oltux72 he/him]

On 1/6/2024 at 5:14 PM, alder24 said:

And is this something bad? I don't understand your point here.

It is good in the sense that using first aid techniques after a major accident is good. It is bad in the sense that the need to use these techniques exists in the first place.

They are picking the low risk/low reward option; thereby precluding getting a better deal later. Yet they are doing so by not using all incentives they have at hand, namely releasing Odium. They might have gotten Vedenar back.

On 1/6/2024 at 5:14 PM, alder24 said:

No they don't... Dalinar just wrote that down to spread information to other fractions via spanreeds and keep the details of it imprinted so they won't forget them. Do you expect Dalinar to verbally spread the terms of the contest to everyone? It's much better to analyze a document like that when you have a written copy of it, not something you try to pull out of your mind. Shards don't need any piece of paper.

I must disagree. Aren't they talking about adding adding Hoid as a protected representative to the treaty in Rhythm of War?

21 hours ago, alder24 said:

Taravangian still wants to continue Rayse's plans and get out into Cosmere, he wants to "save them all," and he clearly sees the flaws of the terms. Sure, there will be changes, but I think we can safely assume Taravangian wants to get out of Roshar just like Rayse wanted. Continuation of this war won’t bring him any closer to achieving this goal.

Yes. But it won't take him farther away from it, like letting the contest take place as planned would do.