Coral Swan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Quartz Zebra said: It's more that if you remove the solid trusts and try to make a coherent team with the remaining players, the obvious follow up to e!Alb is the person trying to save them! Sure. But Alb hasn't been confirmed as Spiked, and you're already calling for my death. I'm getting the impression you don't think there's any room for honest disagreement with you, which isn't a very fun situation for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said: Lion exe might be annoying but doable if there’s 3 other players. Oh no @Salmon Meerkat, you around? not for very long. Penguin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said: not for very long. Penguin Do you have a reason to vote there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quartz Zebra Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 54 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: Sure. But Alb hasn't been confirmed as Spiked, and you're already calling for my death. I'm getting the impression you don't think there's any room for honest disagreement with you, which isn't a very fun situation for me. I apologize! The margins between people in the suspect pool are thin enough that I'm basically done thinking about who to exe today, so I'm looking ahead to the next step! If Alb flips village, this conversation will pay dividends by making you look more villagey! But don't let me stop you from making a case for who you prefer to exe! Did you know that Salmon aren't naturally pink? They develop that coloring by swimming in the same water as Flamingos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said: There is more to my E!meta than being inactive smh Kas told me many things >> 1 hour ago, Coral Swan said: Sure. But Alb hasn't been confirmed as Spiked, and you're already calling for my death. I'm getting the impression you don't think there's any room for honest disagreement with you, which isn't a very fun situation for me. Could you enable your copper cloud? Then we could get @Opal Lion to check if you're a smoker 51 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Do you have a reason to vote there? Tbh I'd be down for a penguin tunnel but the game must end with a Ultimate Showdown between me and penguin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Quartz Zebra said: I apologize! The margins between people in the suspect pool are thin enough that I'm basically done thinking about who to exe today, so I'm looking ahead to the next step! If Alb flips village, this conversation will pay dividends by making you look more villagey! But don't let me stop you from making a case for who you prefer to exe! Did you know that Salmon aren't naturally pink? They develop that coloring by swimming in the same water as Flamingos. Thanks, and sorry if I reacted strongly. I'm trying to avoid leaning too much on other people right now since if one of the Spiked has gotten trusted that could easily cause us to lose. I've reread through page 20 of the thread so far, and have some thoughts: Vulture mentions Kangaroo Not quite sure what to make of this, it might be a Spiked being hyper-aware of a teammate? Comment from Kanga about Albatross : If Albatross does turn out to be Spiked this could indicate that Kanga is a teammate Scorp leaves Vulture out of a reads list: Similar to the above, the Spiked probably are very aware of their team and strategically placing them on lists, so this makes me think Scorpion is village Post from Beagle about Tuatara and Vulture: Honestly this is really suspicious. Pre-emptively defending two out of the three known Spiked. Vulture lists people that should talk more, list of 4 contains 2 Spiked, a villager, and Croc: This post makes me think that Croc is village, since I doubt a Spiked would lump 3 teammates into the same group. Kanga agrees with Vulture about Flamingo: This is kind of minor but points to Kanga being a teammate with Vulture Post from Penguin containing Vulture in a small POE: Of the 5 players Penguin lists, 2 are put as village, so this makes Penguin seem village. Post from Alb avoids all known Spiked: Albatross discusses a bunch of people here and none of them are known Spiked. That seems hard to do by random chance. I know a lot of the juicy stuff this game hasn't happened by page 20, but just from this I think Beagle is much more suspicious than Penguin. And Kanga/Albatross are possible Spiked teammates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Yeah @Quartz Zebra you can shoot Swan. They’ve spent 5 cycles completely skating by pretending to be new to SE doing the minimum and display this sudden burst of analytical posting the moment you suggest possibly shooting them tonight. They were actively involved in 0 PM groups that I know of so they fit the mould of an excluded elim who would prioritise taking down the Tineyes to cut off village comms. Their reaction to Ostrich’s gambit was downright terrible in hindsight as well. 4 hours ago, Coral Swan said: Beagle is much more suspicious than Penguin. And Kanga/Albatross are possible Spiked teammates. Then you shouldn’t have a problem voting Albatross with me, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Swan’s a fine shot by me. There’s some bits of a reason to be cautious of Beagle, but they’ve been trustworthy so far and actively engaging so far. Plus, I think for now the Elim Kill can really only narrow things down. Maybe Zebra is the only hyper-expected shot. (Which is why the secret third Mistborn claim is Lurching them tonight… I wish. Actually I don’t, my brain would explode.) Was hoping to write RP today but a bit drained. Will probably tomorrow. Spoiler … Yell at me if it I end too Dingo-y, I have a lot of RP ideas some can probably wait until Aftermath, want to try a few flashbacks as well, but… idk. This game is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 I... get the impression that people don't care for Albatrosses... Sorry for not being on, let me see if there's anything I can clear up. Lion Quote I guess a question is why Alb didn't question the Fuchsia wagon or comment on it when he did say he'd be around for another hour. He commented on leaving thread but also didn't comment on the Fuchsia wagon despite the fact that he grabbed the vc over an hour before he supposedly left. Why are you the only person who refers to everyone by colour when everyone else uses animal... Just makes things unnecessarily confusing... >> Anyways, I got tied up earlier than I expected, but when I did glance in and did the vote count, Ostrich had already identified as being Aman, so I sorta just rolled my eyes and assumed it was a case of bored villagers that would turn into a more serious voting chaos at the end of the turn. Was a little surprised that it stuck, tbh... Kangaroo Quote Shoot Alb bro. Or Iguana. Spoiler Beagle Quote I don't know man kill whoever Ostrich wanted dead. Rereading last turn I really dislike Iguana's reaction to Ostrich, though thinking back to D1 votes I just want Alb dead again. Couldn't quickly find your thoughts, I guess is there any reason why? Scorpion Quote Albatross: Initial reaction: First post back is unrelated. Second post back is a VC. Third post back is an activity update (still unrelated). This looks like a far worse version of Penguin ignoring the claim. With the VC, there's no way they don't have an idea of what's going on, so they're blatantly dodging making any kind of comment on what happened, which looks like they're dodging revealing their TMI. Quartz Zebra it's definitely worth shooting here tonight. As above, I had a little time while also getting ready to head out for the day, but only ended up glancing once, where I saw someone ask for a vote count, so I dropped that in. What I noticed of the Ostrich thing was, as I said, something that just looked like another Cham, but if anything looked more like bored players joking around with each other. But I then had to keep moving and wasn't going to be on the rest of the cycle so didn't really think any further of it. On 1/15/2024 at 2:51 PM, Amethyst Scorpion said: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Elim tactic I like very much :3 I asked what FUD was twice earlier in the game, but no one answered... Where were you when I needed you then? On 1/15/2024 at 5:40 PM, Amethyst Scorpion said: Their only follow-up is this (which was technically posted after the cycle closed, lol) and to me looks like they’re setting up a Cham vote over Vulture. At the very least it’s noncommittal and for someone who implies they want to vote they sure don’t seem in a hurry to do so. Sort of adds to my read that Alb is allergic to doing anything that would show they have TMI, eg voting Cham over Vulture or commenting on Ostrich’s fakeclaim, plus e!Alb knows Tuatara can riot in that situation as well as in the four way tie so it makes sense they’re not overly concerned. Edit: Actually reading that Alb post again I think they did let some TMI slip through when considering worlds. They never mentioned e!Thug!Cham but did mention e!Thug!Vulture. As I think I explained earlier, being just behind the leading trains is precarious, particularly when one of the leading options isn't already voting for you. Really wanted to avoid killing people I wasn't suspicious of, and didn't want to accidentally upset the balance in a way that put be at the top of the pack. Felt like there were five new messages every few minutes, so it was more important to me to keep an eye on how thread was changing in case I was forced to defend myself if the balance shifted that way anyway, then lost track of when cycle end. Regarding not considering e!Thug!Cham, that just didn't seem likely to me. I don't recall the specifics of when they claimed, but it felt villagery to me at the time. For an elim, I feel like claiming Thug is a better option when you're not a thug - the thug claim is a fairly strong deterrent for any kill (execution or night kill), so unless there's a bored coinshot who feels like testing the claim, you're probably pretty safe to make the claim if you never give thread a strong enough reason to actively seek your death. An elim thug I'd view as better kept as a secret so that village accidentally wastes an execution, or a village coinshot/mistborn wastes their kill instead of disregarding you because of the claim and increasing the chances of unprotected elim allies getting shot. I mean, I guess E!Cham!Thug is possible, if the claim gets you strong enough village reads from it? But dunno. Feels significantly less likely than the alternatives I did suggest. 12 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said: Magenta has a history of avoiding showing TMI or any reaction to anything, despite being present at the time (Cham fakemistbornscan gambit, Ostrich fake e!mistborn gambit, Zebra Self targeting gambit) I'm careful to not show any more information than I intend to share always. It's not my fault if everyone else's poor opsec makes that unusual and suspicious... 7 hours ago, Coral Swan said: Post from Alb avoids all known Spiked: Albatross discusses a bunch of people here and none of them are known Spiked. That seems hard to do by random chance. Pointing out that I do mention Tuatara, but also, when two of the known Spiked died from the inactivity filter and the post is about the chaotic posting right at the end of cycle, doesn't seem so hard to me. Not a lot I can do about if the known elims didn't post at the end of cycle. Though I doubt any vote I'm casting will do any good, not inclined to continue to vote on Lion as their defending of me doesn't seem very elimy to me. More inclined to vote for Chameleon in the end. Had been leaning towards Village Thug, but now that we've seen a village lurcher and an elim spiked, the thug claim seems more suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: and an elim spiked Ah yes And I am a village Villager (What did you mean by this lol) The chance that the elims have two Thugs in this distro are approximately zero percent, so Cham is as cleared as anyone can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Oops Elim Thug is what I was going for, in reference to Vulture. Definitely rules out the E!Thug Cham idea you raised, which is what I was thinking unlikely anyway. I'm saying that I'm not sure I see a need for a village Thug in the distro in light of a Lurcher, so I'm disbelieving Cham's thug claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 (edited) 1 hour ago, Magenta Albatross said: Couldn't quickly find your thoughts, I guess is there any reason why? Two elims stacking on Iguana gave me cold feet there and rightly so given their green flip. My read on you as I’ve explained before comes down to 1) PoE, 2) The majority of your larger-looking posts presenting objective information rather than subjective analysis 3) You being on at rollover D3 but not voting now seems like a frozen elim not sure whether to bus the teammate or look bad wagoning the villager. Your posts from then feel like you were angling to vote Chameleon when they were a wagon but just didn’t know what to do when that wagon dissolved. I will point out you expressed doubt on the Heron wagon in that group PM as well so e!you couldn’t exactly vote there out of the blue either. All of this plus your non-reaction to Ostrich last cycle is sufficient for me. What do you make of Cham’s reaction to Ostrich then? They seemed extremely villagery there, it felt like Cham and I were on the same wavelength. Edited January 16 by Oxblood Beagle Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 10 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Do you have a reason to vote there? yes. im doing what i didnt do last cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 47 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: I will point out you expressed doubt on the Heron wagon in that group PM as well so e!you couldn’t exactly vote there out of the blue either. That might’ve been you re:Hyena actually, but the point stands since you had a similar stance on Heron where you didn’t really have a read one way or another but expressed confusion on the train itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: They’ve spent 5 cycles completely skating by pretending to be new to SE doing the minimum and display this sudden burst of analytical posting the moment you suggest possibly shooting them tonight. Noted. Trying to play the game is bad. Finding interesting posts is something that only experienced players and/or Spiked can do. I was motivated to step up a bit when Zebra suggested to kill me, because if I die there’s no chance to say any of it. And when I flip village then maybe some of what I say will get taken seriously. But literally all I did was reread and look for posts where the current flipped Spiked mention a living player or the other way around. 5 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Then you shouldn’t have a problem voting Albatross with me, yes? I don’t have a problem voting Albatross, but I am a little nervous voting alongside you, at least at the moment. There are still another 40 pages of thread I want to read through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: Noted. Trying to play the game is bad. Not at all. But would you disagree that elims tend to be more reactive to pressure than villagers? A villager in this gamestate wouldn’t be overly concerned about eating an ML. We are ahead, we can afford it. This is an assured win one way or another the way I see it. An elim in this gamestate, however, has to work to survive and you seem like you’re posting to try and survive now. It’s a sudden change in your game play and you can’t expect it to not be pointed out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 21 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: But would you disagree that elims tend to be more reactive to pressure than villagers? To a point, yeah, that checks out. But don’t you think a well-intentioned villager should try and get all their thoughts on the table when they think they might die soon? Immediately reacting with “shoot Swan” is a bit discouraging when I’m just trying to help. Also, what’s the expected number for the Spiked this game? I’ve been sort of guessing 5, but I’m not completely sure how the roles we have/haven’t seen might impact what would be considered fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said: Oops Elim Thug is what I was going for, in reference to Vulture. Definitely rules out the E!Thug Cham idea you raised, which is what I was thinking unlikely anyway. I'm saying that I'm not sure I see a need for a village Thug in the distro in light of a Lurcher, so I'm disbelieving Cham's thug claim. Ah, I see. I guess at this point I'm inclined to trust the Thug claim as a village one existing makes sense on a distro level. Plus, Cham claimed very early on, and has since shown some inability to convincingly fakeclaim something, so I doubt e!NotThug!them has kept this up 1 hour ago, Salmon Meerkat said: yes. im doing what i didnt do last cycle. Which is what? 1 hour ago, Coral Swan said: Noted. Trying to play the game is bad. Finding interesting posts is something that only experienced players and/or Spiked can do. No. Not playing the game until people try to kill you is bad. Finding interesting posts is something everyone should do, not just people under pressure. That's the weird part. It doesn't help that your conclusions align with what most of us think is the evil mindset. It doesn't mean you're wrong and we're right, obviously, but that's where the call for the kill came from. But if it makes you feel any better, I'm pretty sure you were going to be the next kill anyway :P. 41 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: Also, what’s the expected number for the Spiked this game? I’ve been sort of guessing 5, but I’m not completely sure how the roles we have/haven’t seen might impact what would be considered fair. I would assume 5 given the player count, existence of an e!Thug, and the distro that we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Amethyst Scorpion said: I see. I guess at this point I'm inclined to trust the Thug claim as a village one existing makes sense on a distro level. Plus, Cham claimed very early on, and has since shown some inability to convincingly fakeclaim something, so I doubt e!NotThug!them has kept this up Excuse me! I can create a convincing fakeclaim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 (edited) 1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: No. Not playing the game until people try to kill you is bad. Finding interesting posts is something everyone should do, not just people under pressure. That's the weird part. It doesn't help that your conclusions align with what most of us think is the evil mindset. It doesn't mean you're wrong and we're right, obviously, but that's where the call for the kill came from. Okay, so pretend for a moment that you are village me at the start of this cycle, with my gameplay from the previous part of the game. You are concerned that the Spiked team wasn't just Vulture plus a load of inactives. What do you do? Edited January 16 by Coral Swan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: Excuse me! I can create a convincing fakeclaim. I'll believe it when I see it Ngl if the game ends with e!you winning the coinflip against v!Penguin in the ultimate ironic culmination of your Penguin tunnel I won't even be mad 2 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: Okay, so pretend for a moment that you are village me at the start of this cycle, with my gameplay from the previous part of the game. You are concerned that the elim team wasn't just Vulture plus a load of inactives. What do you do? I don't know. I mean, the correct answer is "I analyze the previous cycles" but that's unsatisfactory because it's also what inactive elim you does when you see that we're killing all the inactives. The truth is, I'm sure enough that Zebra, Beagle, Cham, and Lion are all village that I don't feel the need to deep back read. We have enough time and enough current thread to work with what we've got. Looking specifically at active players from D1 and finding elims seems like confbias to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 (edited) Okay, here's what I got from pages 21-40: Cham mentions connection between Vulture and Meerkat: So probably Cham and Meerkat aren't Spiked together. Vulture agrees that there are elims among the more active players: Given Vulture was Spiked, this does offer evidence that most/all of the active players are village. Beagle follows up on Tuatara: I'm possibly tunneling, but this looks like an elim trying to get a teammate from dying to the filter. Later this vote is retracted. Penguin wants to flip Cham: This post is mid-gambit thingy, and is weird. Just thought I'd flag it. Beagle doesn't vote for Cham: This is the main thing that makes me hesitate on Beagle. I feel like Spiked Beagle would have more incentive to want Cham dead here. Beagle defense of Vulture: And then we have this, more reason to think Beagle is Spiked. I'll end by noting that Lion and Cham both switch off of Vulture at the end of D3, and Beagle was voting for Heron. So yeah, I still feel pretty good about my Beagle vote. 14 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: I don't know. I mean, the correct answer is "I analyze the previous cycles" but that's unsatisfactory because it's also what inactive elim you does when you see that we're killing all the inactives. The truth is, I'm sure enough that Zebra, Beagle, Cham, and Lion are all village that I don't feel the need to deep back read. We have enough time and enough current thread to work with what we've got. Looking specifically at active players from D1 and finding elims seems like confbias to me. So, ignoring alignment, if you are willing to grant that I didn't participate as much early on (this is because I am new, was traveling, and starting a new semester btw), but wanted to step up and help my team, then my activity today should largely be neutral. Can you (or someone else) lay out a case for Beagle as a villager? Because so far I'm not seeing it. Edit: I do feel pretty good about Lion, Scorp, and Zebra. Would bet on those 3 being village. Scorp switched onto Vulture near the end of D3, which is a major point in their favor. Edited January 16 by Coral Swan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: So, ignoring alignment, if you are willing to grant that I didn't participate as much early on (this is because I am new, was traveling, and starting a new semester btw), but wanted to step up and help my team, then my activity today should largely be neutral. Can you (or someone else) lay out a case for Beagle as a villager? Because so far I'm not seeing it. I would call it a net positive, but you're still PoE. And I don't know if I believe that you're new. At least, if you are, this is one heck of an impressive start :P. Working on calc rn but here's the quick version off the top of my head Called out the spiked/referenced the elim kill in a villagery way early D1 Passed Cham's fakeclaim reaction test Passed Ostrich's fakeclaim reaction test (this is the bigger one for me-- legitimately apologetic posting and offering a draw reads extremely sincere and very village) Stellar vibes all around, at least for me, consistent through PMs I said I'd quit SE if this read is wrong so it'd sure better be right (not a reason but w/e) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: I'll end by noting that Lion and Cham both switch off of Vulture at the end of D3, and Beagle was voting for Heron. So yeah, I still feel pretty good about my Beagle vote. Technically but my vote on the VC was on Vulture because I didn't get my self vote in on time 22 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Ngl if the game ends with e!you winning the coinflip against v!Penguin in the ultimate ironic culmination of your Penguin tunnel I won't even be mad E!me wins against Penguin always because the village cannot win because I wouldn't die if Exe'd unfortunately Edited January 16 by Pearl Chameleon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Called out the spiked/referenced the elim kill in a villagery way early D1 Passed Cham's fakeclaim reaction test Passed Ostrich's fakeclaim reaction test (this is the bigger one for me-- legitimately apologetic posting and offering a draw reads extremely sincere and very village) Stellar vibes all around, at least for me, consistent through PMs I said I'd quit SE if this read is wrong so it'd sure better be right (not a reason but w/e) How does this stuff weigh against Beagle's repeated and insistent defense of Vulture? 3 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: Technically but my vote on the VC was on Vulture because I didn't get my self vote in on time Yeah I was just noting it. I actually think you and Lion are both Village, probably. Lion Soothed that vote anyway, didn't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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