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Anniversary Game 10/Anonymous Game 14: Tyrian Falls Apocalypse


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2 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:

I kind of initially assumed that tineyes would be priority targets for elim kills

This is interesting. Elims generally tend to want to keep PMs around because it’s easier to manipulate people at close range and a lot of info/role phishing takes place inside PM networks. I say it’s interesting because the Tineye NK points to a world where elims weren’t involved in any significant PM groups/networks and wanted to cut off village-centric communication. 

Obviously then there is the question of who knew Flamingo to be a Tineye. Flamingo had claimed to some that are known but he might have claimed to more that are not, and of course there is the e!Seeker who was provably online during at least N1. 

Flamingo is an odd kill by virtue of them not being too involved in the thread discussions even if they were decently village-read, so these are fair speculations to make but they don’t really get us anywhere.

I’m a regular vanilla as well for what it’s worth. 

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I had not known Flamingo's role 🤔 and sorry Zebra but I still don't trust you

 

BUT WHY, AMAN, SOME MIGHT ASK

- Tyrian Falls has dealt with an e!CS before

- Bad voting record

- WGGs are a thing and they probably wouldn't have double tapped Vulture if not for Scorp

- Bad PoE (seriously the shoot orders they've posted look very rand!e, from my PoV)

- Demanding village consensus on Heron when I was doing everything I could to get us to finish Vulture off (inconsistent with wanting Vulture dead)

- Gave an excuse for why they won't be killed going forward in spite of being a very powerful role ("elims need Zebra alive to shoot villagers")

- Vibes

- Apparently knew Flam was a Tineye and is trying to pin their death on me for only Leras knows why (e!me shoots Lion last night, full stop)

- "Accidently" Spiked :ph34r:

- Always anticipate the monkey wrench

 

None of this is to say this line of thought is my first world view, or second, or probably even third, but I'm not foolish enough to write Zebra off too quickly, especially when they repeatedly keep shading me. As always, I feel I'm obviously village, but do recognize other people don't see my alignment as clearly as I do

Edited by Fuchsia Ostrich
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Oh come on that’s just unnecessary FUD, stop that 😛. An e!CS makes absolutely zero sense in this distro unless a bunch of us are lying about our roles and are actually thugs/lurchers (:ph34r:). 

Edit:

It also objectively would have been the better move to consensually assume Zebra is v so that them potentially continually dodging NKs would have been more telling, whereas casting doubt this way invites elims to play the IKYK game and e!Zebra can later argue that they didn’t get NKd because they are a viable ML judging by thread opinion. 

Edit:

If an e!Coinshot was going to shoot a teammate, one of the inactive members would have been a million times better given they were dying anyway. That’s free cred and they wouldn’t have had to waste two shots to get it. 

Edit:

I don’t have a VC but I assume Albatross is leading. If Alb flips green I recommend Kangaroo for the coinshot target. If they flip red then I don’t really care who gets shot, any shot is probably good. Don’t shoot penguin. 

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1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

- "Accidently" Spiked :ph34r:

I prefer to say I have intRuinsive thoughts!

Side effects may include the desire to spill blood at night. 

I'd also shoot a villager N1 as an e!CS! 

It's objectively better for the elims to keep the CS alive, if you map out the death progression! It shaves an entire cycle off the game, which I imagine they need! The cost is you're allowing a villagey villager to make it that far, reducing the POE pool you have to get mixes from! 

Edit: And just kill one more elim and I'll be screwed by action economy since I assume I can't submit two kills at once! 

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I personally don’t see that as FUD, or at the very least no more than Zebra is doing to my slot, but to each their own ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I’m not advocating we vote them any time soon, and if v!Zebra, we’re more likely going to win before we need to consider it. But I personally don’t agree that an e!Coinshot is impossible until we have flips rather than claims. And imo arguments like “an e!Coinshot should have done this instead” don’t really work on me, since all elims have the goal of appearing as Village as possible, the most optimal play is always the one that nets the most V cred / lures the village into complacency. Had Zebra shot someone that was going to get filtered, imo, that would be suspect as all heck. IIRC one of the arguments that was used to get Heron killed was the fact they brought up a WGG in the first place, and as we all now know, Vulture was an e!Thug. I am also pretty sure the last e!Coinshot (two Beagles ago? Three?) did not use their kill until C2 for the reason Zebra is using (Hello Elan!)

Edited by Fuchsia Ostrich
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12 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:
15 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

they felt a need to mention that it was for rp purposes. she could have used subtler wording like "gotten them killed" but she said "killed them."

ah. i mean why bring this up now tho?

Because it had only just occurred to me.

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2 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I personally don’t see that as FUD, or at the very least no more than Zebra is doing to my slot, but to each their own ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I’m not advocating we vote them any time soon, and if v!Zebra, we’re more likely going to win before we need to consider it. But I personally don’t agree that an e!Coinshot is impossible until we have flips rather than claims. And imo arguments like “an e!Coinshot should have done this instead” don’t really work on me, since all elims have the goal of appearing as Village as possible, the most optimal play is always the one that nets the most V cred / lures the village into complacency. Had Zebra shot someone that was going to get filtered, imo, that would be suspect as all heck. IIRC one of the arguments that was used to get Heron killed was the fact they brought up a WGG in the first place, and as we all now know, Vulture was an e!Thug. I am also pretty sure the last e!Coinshot (two Beagles ago? Three?) did not use their kill until C2 for the reason Zebra is using (Hello Elan!)

I'm going to challenge you to come up with a fair distro that uses an e!CS and a e!seeker and the flips we've already been given 

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Spoiler

Amber Vulture Sasha de Vries, Detective Spiked Thug

Amethyst Scorpion Barney Detective Claimed Vanilla

Azure Mouse Maihler, Meme Artist Village Tineye

Charcoal Hyena Hobbyist Village Smoker

Chartreuse Penguin Murph, Carpenter/Armorer Claimed Smoker

Coral Swan Ananame, Noble Thief Claimed Smoker 

Cream Tuatara Spiked Rioter

Emerald Falcon Tune, Graffiti Artist Village Vanilla

Fuchsia Ostrich Endsayer, Endsayer Claimed Vanilla

Indigo Weasel Quagmire, 3 "Weasels" in a Trenchcoat Village Smoker

Ivory Dragonfly Bartleby, Witch Doctor Village Mistborn

Magenta Albatross Grandiose Verbosity 

Mauve Crocodile

Melon Dingo Barrrrrrrg, Obligator Spiked Seeker

Mint Heron Stray Dog Village Vanilla

Onyx Flamingo M, Orator + Researcher Village Tineye

Opal Lion Claimed Soother

Oxblood Beagle Claimed Vanilla

Pearl Chameleon Samwise, Obligator Claimed Thug

Plum Rhinoceros Nalthian Village Soother

Quartz Zebra Zee, Accidentally Spiked Claimed Coinshot

Saffron Iguana 

Sage Kangaroo Leo, Amnesiac Claimed Vanilla

Salmon Meerkat Sal, Loyalist Claimed Vanilla

Sapphire Elephant Forgetful

Spoiler

Spiked: 1x Rioter, 1x Seeker, 1x Thug

Village: 2x Tineye, 1x Coinshot, 1x Mistborn, 2x Soother, 4x Smoker, 6x vanilla, 4x unclaimed

If anyone has a role-claim I missed @ me please

EDIT: 

Looking at the roles, some things stand out to me:

1. There is likely to be 6 spiked, with one or two weaker roles (vanilla, smoker, Tineye)

2. 0 lurchers on both sides and very few extra life roles. E!lurcher doesn't make too much sense, but I suspect there might be a v!lurcher hiding in the bunch. Additionally, the distro suggests v!Coinshot, because there would definitely be village lurchers and more thugs if the elims had both a seeker and a Coinshot

3. There is a good chance an Elim power role (vote manip, maybe smoker???, thug [if 5e team]) hiding in the vanilla or smoker claims.

4. If the village has 2 vote manip and one mistborn, chances are that the elims will not have more than 1 smoker.

Edited by Pearl Chameleon
Added "vanilla" as the roles of flipped villagers
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Funny that Beagle is arguing against e!CS as Beagle account was the last e!CS. 

2 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said:

I'd also shoot a villager N1 as an e!CS! 

Why didn't you shoot someone during N1? Sorry if you've already mentioned it, I can't seem to recall. 

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5 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Challenge unaccepted. I'm a vibes guy, not a distro guy 😛

I mean you have to admit that having:

Elim rioter

Elim seeker

Elim thug

Elim Coinshot

Elim ???

Is rather insane against the power of the village:

2 soothers

1 thug

1 mistborn

4 smokers

I mean, does the village even stand a chance mechanically? Why isn't there a kill n1? Why is Zebra beagling themself if they're an e!Coinshot?

 

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13 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:

😄  oh well

 

I kind of initially assumed that tineyes would be priority targets for elim kills before mouse suggested the alternative. I dunno, I do think in general flamingo would be a weird kill to make, but it probably was due to that role reasoning?

How does that lead ostritch to be obviously paired for penguin though. Noted otherwise.

Ostrich penguin e/e mainly because of D1 EoD where penguin would've died if Ostrich didn't tie up ivory dragonfly for the vote. 

FAQ:

Q: Why would ostrich chose to tie their teammate instead of put another person firmly in the lead?

A: because there was no opportunity to.

Q: why didn't tuatara use vote manip to save penguin?

A: because of poor doc comunication.

Q: why is the penguin train more pure than the other trains? What makes you think the Ivory train was impure?

A: because penguin was voted for by three villagers?

Just now, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I guess we’ll see when the game is over ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ rn I’m hoping Zebra just shoots me to end my suffering (solo elim Mistborn here with the worst RNG possible)

You claiming Elim mistborn with bad luck?

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