Long Game 7: The Annealing of Luthadel

[Tulir]

Mesist's House Ball was truly something to be marveled at.  It was an incredibly novel idea, and he executed it perfectly.  However, it seemed that the atmosphere was wrong.  Everyone was staying quiet.  Ok, I can't stand this, Tonul thought as he jumped on a table.

 

"Fellow nobles, we have suffered losses, at the hands of this conspiracy Lord Heron showed us.  But let us not forget that we have already rooted out a traitor!  Sitting quiet and not discussing things only helps them, so let's get some discussion going.  Cat, you were the last person to vote on Racine.  To me, that looks like you were trying to dismiss suspicion of you by voting for an ally of yours, to throw us of track.  Care to say anything?

 

Seriously people, we need discussion going on.  Sitting around in our docs doesn't do anything, and helps the skaa.

[Kasimir]

Araris, you could be right, but I'd be interested to know why the skaa would prefer to leave the House Lord of Seeris in place for now. One possibility you've missed and that I somewhat suspect is that we're going back to known-quantity*-kills. It could be just that Shiv is storming scary, and the skaa decided to remove him prematurely from the playing field.

 

The problem with that theory is it just doesn't really fit with QC's kill on Night One, in that QC hasn't done something particularly...traumatising for people who would be around to remember. Looking at who they voted for or fingered is similarly unhelpful, because while Shiv mentioned the case for Racine didn't look good, he went for Meta on Day One, for possibly-unknown reasons. (I'm reading it as RP but not certain.) QC hasn't really been what you'd call vocal about suspicions either.

 

*known-quantity = killing of experienced players. I decided to swap the term a little because it's not as if new players are any less dangerous--just that likely if strategising as skaa, you'd prefer to remove the known dangers first while assessing the threat level posed by the unknown.

[Gamma Fiend]

Fien lay still on the ground, breathing heavily and not wanting to move, lest he get covered in even more glass. He hesitantly looked up, waiting for another shower of coins to finish the job and after a few moments of waiting, he started to slowly get back to his feet, as shards of glass rained off him and fell to the ground, shattering even more. He looked around, slightly baffled, when he saw the holes in the wall where the coins had been embedded in the stone behind him.

He stood there, bewildered, and grabbed the nearest jug of wine and started guzzling it, spilling half of the contents down his shirt in the process. A second later, his door burst open as Gamad came running in the room, deftly dodging a jug that Fien tossed at him in reaction.

"My Lord!" The Terrisman panted, out of breath, his bald head sheening with sweat, and his normally neat steward robes dirtied and tattered. "Are you injured!" Gamad barked at him as Fien saw him noticeably grow in size, his stance ready to attack and his eyes quickly surveying the damage around the room with an unmistakable clarity.

"I'm perfectly fine, no thanks to you." Fien said. "And where in the name of the Lord Ruler were you?" He barked at the steward, "Isn't protecting me what I pay you for!"

Gamad opened his mouth to reply when he was cut off by two guards running into the room.

"Lord Urbain!" They shouted, coming to a halt and snapping off a salute. "We have found an intruder lying dead inside the perimeter walls!"

"What are you talking about?" Gamad interjected. "I killed the mistborn out on the walkways!"

"Uh, Mistborn, sir?" The guard nervously replied, "We found..... aw, rust. You're just going to want to come look at this."

---------------------------------------------------------------

Gamad observed the scene where the late Lady Cadri lay on the ground, her head caved in, presumably from hitting the wall, misjudging her height, perhaps, as she leaped about Master Fien's keep, as the vials of metal found on her person had indicated she was a coinshot.

"Why in the name of the Lord Ruler would she attack me!?" Ranted Fien, enraged ever since he had been informed of who the corpse was. "I know we didn't get along, but I never thought she'd go this far, that cold-hearted --"

"Fien!" Gamad exclaimed, cutting him off. "Look at this." He held out a small coin for Fien to examine, which the young lord took dubiously in his hand.

"Yeah, so?" He asked, crossing his arms and looking a little put off that he had been interrupted.

"It's not metal." Gamad sighed, explaining to the young fool how it was too light, and then he bounced the coin off the wall to illustrate the pinging sound and how it was all wrong for metal to sound like, and then

Fien frowned, then looked at the body of Lady Cadri as she was being covered up with a black sheet. He listened on as Gamad went on into further detail about how there was no blood splatter on the wall where she had allegedly crashed headfirst into.

"....So... you're saying?" Fien shook his head. "What are you saying?"

Gamad sighed again, wishing the child would actually pay attention and think for once. "It was sabotage, young lord. She had been given fake coins so she could take an unfortunate fall at the right moment, and then when she lay on the ground, somebody came and bashed her head in."

Fien looked like he was going to be sick. Just then, another skaa servant came rushing up, looking scared to approach the Great Lord directly.

"Um, m-master Urbain?" The man nervously stuttered. "Something just arrived at the front gate.... y-you'll want to see this."

"What in the Lord Ruler is it this time!" Fien exclaimed angrily into the air, waving his arms about and making the skaa cringe back. "Might as well rusting go and see what this is."

-----------------------------------------------------

Fien stepped outside of his front gate, escorted on each side by a Hazekiller guard and Gamad leading behind him, ready to strike at whatever lay in wait for him. He caught a whiff of something foul, and he heard Gamad groan behind him. Laying in the middle of the street lay a saddle, and on the saddle was a flaming pile of horse dung. A servant walked up and handed Fien a small envelope with small, fancy writing on it.

You are hereby cordially invited to attend my magnificent and glorious ball, you flaming pile of horse dung. I can't wait to see you there, and wearing yet another one of your ridiculous outfits.

Sincerely, Mesist A'lees

Fien crumpled the invitation in his hand and tossed it onto the flaming pile of manure. "Clear this mess up!" He barked, and turned around and strode furiously back into his Keep. He really could not stand that insufferable man!

 

------------------------------------------------------

 

Just wanted to get my "Part 2" RP in, since I didn't die. O.o I agree that we should definitely start some actual discussion rather soon, before too long passes in the Turn then everyone just rush-votes at the end.

 

Do we continue to go after who we most suspected immediately before and after Raccine got lynched? Because with Finch's clarification and admitting about his mistake with the PM may have certainly helped show Cat was telling the truth about her information, the thing that I'm still confused about is why Raccine still tried to lie about messaging Finch? She couldn't have known he was that 'inexperienced' of a player, and all it would have taken was them speaking up sooner to bring that lie to a head. So I am still confused by the amount of time it took for a clarification about that PM to be mentioned, because I had seen Leftinch viewing the thread at least once or twice before then. I'm not saying they're automatically skaa, necessarily, I'm just still confused why Raccine would have tried such a brazen lie like that. (even though it apparently almost worked....)

Edited July 31, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[Lightsworn Panda]

My brother is back today, just saying.

[Ashiok]

Question! Why is there no head of morinthe?

[jaelre]

Lesser House?

[Wyrmhero]

Indeed, House Morinthe was a Lesser House.

 

For the sake of it, I will make a tally of all the votes so far:

 

Cat Lekal (1): Tonul Venture.

 

...That was easier than normal. If only it was like this every Day Turn.

 

29 hours left, guys.

Edited July 31, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[jaelre]

Looking at the past votes, the following people caught my attention: Mesiste, Tonul and Hadrian.

 

Mesiste was involved in the voting with the staggering amount of 7 times, 6 of which are in the first day alone: he was voted by Tonul, Cadri and Hadrian, and voted for Fien and Hyrun before settling on Tonul. He also voted for Racine the second day.

 

Tonul was also, 6 times. The first day he voted for Mesiste, Kaldin, Wandrin  and was voted by Mesiste. The second day he was voted by Fien and Mailu, and he voted for Hadrian.

 

Hadrian also has 7 involvements in the voting. The first day he was the target of Mailu and Kassel, but he voted for Mesiste and Jain. The second day, He was voted by Tonul, and he voted for Ren and Racine.

 

The only other persons involved in the voting that much were Luckat, with 1 vote received and one cast on the 1st day, and 3 received and 2 cast on the 2nd day, but I have information that lessens somewhat the suspicions on her, and Jain, with 5.

 

Now, what makes these 3 people suspicious in my eyes:

• Mesiste and Tonul traded votes
• Hadrian voted for Mesiste, Tonul for Hadrian
• Mesiste was targeted by both the first night
• Cadri voted for Meta. Despite the fact it was embedded in the RP I wonder if there was some ulterior motive.
• Meta and Hadrian voted for Racine, Meta quite late in the cycle, also (that could be said of quite a few people though).

 

I realize it's flimsy, and I haven't looked too much into each vote, but the scheme I drew puts them in the middle of the fray. I'm relatively sure I'm implying someone that is not responsible, but it did draw my eye.

 

I'm curious if anyone else has any exonerating evidence for Cat though.

[Renegade]

Ren grimaced as he and Bamin stepped on the barge, frowning at Mesist as he greeted them onboard.  Why had the man made them walk an unnecessary length just to get down to these barges?  And how was one supposed to have a ball outdoors?  While it was only the third ball he’d been to, Ren had enough sense to realize that an outdoor ball was a horrible idea.

 

Bamin frowned as he led Ren to a table.  “You’d better not try anything like yesterday,” he scolded.  “The only thing making you a bigger target was if you were wearing an orange shirt on your back.”

 

Ren glanced over at Fien Urbain, who was wearing his ridiculous orange shirt and doing some sort of strange dance move only he would do.

 

“Look, I’m sorry about what I did yesterday,” Ren sighed.  “I know it’ll make your job of protecting me a lot more difficult than it already is, but I felt it was necessary.”

 

Bamin frowned at Ren, almost seeming angry.  “I know you’re trying to help, Ren.  But you’re far too inexperienced for politics and whatnot.  Now tell me, did you go to that Informant last night?”

 

Ren glanced to the side.  “Yes…”

 

Bamin sighed, frustrated.  “Ren, I thought I told you…”

 

“It’s not my fault!” Ren whispered frantically.  “I mean, that Hoid fellow turned out to be right yesterday, so I figured that…”

 

“Informants aren’t the most trustworthy people, I hope you realize,” Bamin scolded.  “Did he tell you someone else is a skaa today?  I hope we won’t have to go through that same performance again.”

 

“No,” Ren sighed.  “The informant only told me –“

 

“I don’t care what he told you!” Bamin glared.  “And I don’t want you going around, telling people about what that… Hoid said to you.  Informants are not to be trusted, and it would be best if you stayed away from them.”  Bamin looked at Ren, composing himself.  “Stay safe now, Ren.”

 

Ren nodded back as Bamin turned around and walked away.  So much has changed these past few days, Ren thought.  But Bamin is right.  I really shouldn’t make myself such a great target.  I don’t want to end up the same way my father did…  Ren sighed.

 

I have confirmation from the Informant that Aonar is of House Morinthe, in case anyone needs that. 

 

Anyhow, the amount of inactivity in this game is getting embarrassing.  We really need to fix that, since information is still as crucial as ever at this point.  Also, it’s very easy for the skaa to hide in a large group of inactives.  So, I’m going to vote for Wandrin, who hasn’t posted anything since Day One.  We still need to try and get some discussion going.  However, we do need to be careful as to what information we reveal in-thread.

 

While I’m considering a lot of what everyone has said so far, not a lot of it seems to be incriminating.  Here’s one thing I noticed, though: Sylinia revealed Asyr, a Semi-Great House Lord, as a coinshot yesterday.  Now, I’d think that would’ve made him a huge target (which is why we need to be careful with revealing information; I saw no reason for Asyr to be revealed as a coinshot).  Now, my question is: why was Cadri killed rather than Asyr?  There are a few explanations I can think of, but I’d like to see what you people think.

[Ashiok]

I have a reason for saying this, which I will explain next day cycle. We need to lynch Red: Cat today.

[luckat]

Mesist's House Ball was truly something to be marveled at.  It was an incredibly novel idea, and he executed it perfectly.  However, it seemed that the atmosphere was wrong.  Everyone was staying quiet.  Ok, I can't stand this, Tonul thought as he jumped on a table.

 

"Fellow nobles, we have suffered losses, at the hands of this conspiracy Lord Heron showed us.  But let us not forget that we have already rooted out a traitor!  Sitting quiet and not discussing things only helps them, so let's get some discussion going.  Cat, you were the last person to vote on Racine.  To me, that looks like you were trying to dismiss suspicion of you by voting for an ally of yours, to throw us of track.  Care to say anything?

 

Seriously people, we need discussion going on.  Sitting around in our docs doesn't do anything, and helps the skaa.

 

While I was the last person to vote for Racine, I was also the one who produced the last bit of evidence against her. If I was trying to dismiss suspicion of myself by voting for her, then why did I produce that evidence earlier when It wasn't clear that she would be lynched, when that evidence was most likely to lead to the lynching of either me or her? While I think that looking at who voted for Racine at the last minute could help us find someone who was blending in, there were many last minute votes for her, and looking at any of them without also considering the context of what the voters had said previously won't help. Also, just as many people didn't vote at all as voted on Day 2. I think the no-votes would be an easier place for skaa to hide in this case. (I agree that we need more discussion going though.)

 

Do we continue to go after who we most suspected immediately before and after Raccine got lynched? Because with Finch's clarification and admitting about his mistake with the PM may have certainly helped show Cat was telling the truth about her information, the thing that I'm still confused about is why Raccine still tried to lie about messaging Finch? She couldn't have known he was that 'inexperienced' of a player, and all it would have taken was them speaking up sooner to bring that lie to a head. So I am still confused by the amount of time it took for a clarification about that PM to be mentioned, because I had seen Leftinch viewing the thread at least once or twice before then. I'm not saying they're automatically skaa, necessarily, I'm just still confused why Raccine would have tried such a brazen lie like that. (even though it apparently almost worked....)

 

I'll speculate a bit on this. I think Racine was hoping that Leftinch wouldn't speak up or that everyone would think he was skaa and lying if he did. She probably thought that if she admitted to making a PM with him then that would show that at least two of the pieces of information from the informants were true, when she could only have given he informants one, which would have meant the third was true as well. Admitting to making the PM would have been more incriminating for her than not, no matter what Leftinch said.

 

I'm curious if anyone else has any exonerating evidence for Cat though.

 

I'm a bit curious as to what your exonerating evidence for me is, although if it's sensitive information then it's probably best not to tell.

 

As for your discussion of votes, does adding together the number of votes given and the number received for each person really indicate much other than activity over the course of the past two days? They seem like they could compound one another, particularly during Day 1 if people vote back at each other or vote in a chain. Also, one day of suspicion on a person, whether it is well-founded or not, can blow these numbers our of proportion.

 

I have a reason for saying this, which I will explain next day cycle. We need to lynch Red: Cat today.

 

I'd like an explanation for why I need to be lynched. What evidence do you have against me that has you convinced that I'm skaa? Or is there another reason to go after me?

[Metacognition]

Sorry for being late to my own party! Yesterday was surprisingly busy for a Wednesday! I should be able to be on more today though.

 

Since it seems that no one has any knew evidence or if they do, that they are unwilling to share it, I'm voting for Tonul.

 

The easiest piece of information to fake is someone's role, which he then just gave to Racine rather than trying to catch her in a lie about her role. Now while that's not particularly strong evidence, it is that evidence plus his actions on Day 1 that make me vote for him. We specifically said that we did not want Noble Skaa messing with the votes on the first day and he decided to ignore that. His reasoning? To save someone in his House. 

 

So, he's either Skaa or he's playing House politics over the goal of killing the Skaa, which makes him a liability. 

[Ashiok]

If the informant didn't lie, then next day cycle we either lynch a skaa or keep a house power...

Tell ya what. If I am wrong, kill me. But see it through.

[Tulir]

I did make the mistake when I shared that she was a Tineye, and that was because I wasn't thinking.  

 

We specifically said that we did not want Noble Skaa messing with the votes on the first day and he decided to ignore that. His reasoning? To save someone in his House. 

I assume you meant Noble Emotional Allomancers messing with the votes, and yes, I did try to save Ash because he is in my house.  However, I would like to point out that a Soother target Racine, so they made the same mistake as me.

[Metacognition]

You're assuming that the Sooth wasn't a Skaa soothing. Because of your actions, we don't know, but it's less likely that it was a Noble Soothing since it wasn't on someone in danger. Don't worry, I have my suspicions on that one as well since I know of two soothers at this point. 

 

All that doesn't change the fact that if the Skaa were wanting to go for a lynch on the first day, they would have had to go after one of the three that were up. The Soother didn't do that, but you did. 

Edited July 31, 2014 by Metacognition

[luckat]

If the informant didn't lie, then next day cycle we either lynch a skaa or keep a house power...

Tell ya what. If I am wrong, kill me. But see it through.

What does that have to do with lynching me? Is there someone you are reasonably sure is skaa? What makes you so sure, and who are they? Why would there be a choice between lynching a skaa and keeping a house power? Is that because you think a skaa has a house power? Then lynching them would give the power to the house of someone who voted for them. If you have important information, then you should share at least the basics of it with us, because otherwise we have no reason to trust you or the conclusions you draw. It's best to keep certain information out of the hands of skaa, but trusting someone blindly is a bad idea.

[Ashiok]

If I reveal parts of it, we lose part of the way it works. Basically, it has to do with the last member of your house. It's a good plan, don't worry.

[Gamma Fiend]

I'm sorry, I'm just not following this proposed plan, Ash. So we lynch Cat to see what, if she's skaa or not? Because it sounds like you don't even believe she's skaa. So then what, we lynch her and find out she isn't skaa? So your plan is to find out the last person in the house by having them revealed as the last House Lord? And then if Cat wasn't skaa, they must be, or something?

While I get it the long run hope of that, what it would ultimately seem like it would do is end up destroying a house completely, or even not that, still would put the House Power in the hands of a skaa (assuming of course Cat isn't already one with the power). I just think at this point in the game we should probably start trying to run off of something more solid. Relying on the Informants and lynch results is perfectly fine, and will definitely help us track down the skaa in the end, but we should also not forget good old, Mafia-style game deduction.

Look for people acting strangely or getting caught in lies or inconsistencies. Look at who's proposing what and who that ultimately benefits. Who are people defending, and why? Also, the timing of when people come forward with things is important to look at. Things like that. It's nice to try and hope grand plans like this will work out, but with a plan like yours, which is just basically hinging on the words, "trust you", just does not sound really inspiring right now.

[Ashiok]

I have two nights of info on the other house member, and my fellow house member seems to suspect Cat. I don't know, but my plan has a third benefit too. Can't tell y'all now because it wouldn't happen then, but if it works, it will be awesome, with more plus than minus...

[Araris Valerian]

I know with 100% certaintity that Cat used the Truth action for the informant on night 1, which doesn't line up with the only other skaa we've seen. I want more justification for this "plan" so RED: Ash

[Ashiok]

The THIRD member of the house (you know who)

I know their house and metal.

[Araris Valerian]

Ok, Ash, assuming that you are a well intending noble and that your plan is mostly based upon a member of your house and their suspicions, you have a decent chance of being wrong. Lets follow that scenario out:

Cat dies

Random person gets killed by skaa

New lord/lady dies from lynch to save the power

Random person gets killed by skaa

We lynch you because your plan was a bad idea

Skaa get a 6th free kill

So, if your plan is wrong but well intended, the skaa get 6 free kills. I say that's a pretty bad scenario, which is why I voted for you.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Araris Valerian

[Ashiok]

I'm confused... Isn't the new lord/lady revealed as soon as the old one dies? If not, disregard my plan...

[Sart]

First, let's get a vote chart up.

 

luckat (2): Tulir, Ashiok

New One(1): Renegade

Ashiok(1): Araris Valerian

Tulir(1): Metacognition

 

Well, that's not good. We seem to be debating a lot, but not actually voting for anyone. That leaves us susceptible to vote manipulation.

 

@Ashiok: Yes, the new house lord would be revealed, but what good would that do? If they're skaa, we just gave them a house power. Even if they aren't skaa, they are vulnerable to attack during the night. 

Edited August 1, 2014 by a smart guy

[Araris Valerian]

They are. But your plan, if it somehow doesn't follow my chronology above, must rely on the skaa doing something beside random kills, which, after reading these last several posts, they know is a good way to let us kill 6 of ourselves. Your plan seems that it must have some way to stop the skaa from killing the new house lord, so why would they even try? If I was a skaa and Cat got lynched, I would kill someone random or with a dangerous metal or dangerous info, and let everyone else kill the new lord and then you for being wrong. Btw, if I am a skaa, and I understand how your plan works, then all the skaa know and it won't work. I see zero reason to follow this plan through. Tell us who said that Cat was suspicious and let us lynch them maybe.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Araris Valerian