Who would win the Cosmere war?

[Frustration]

So with Frustration's Firepower index up to date on all the Cosmere world's so far, I had to wonder if the Cosmere went to war at the Era 4 time who as of now do you think would win such a conflict?

 

Now this does require a lot of assumptions, so I'm going to ask that all speculation be limited to that which has either been confirmed to happen, or which is heavily implied to happen before that time.

 

We are also going to assume that no alliances between worlds have been made, nor has any world been subjugated before the conflict starts.

 

So who would win?

[alder24]

43 minutes ago, Frustration said:

So with Frustration's Firepower index up to date on all the Cosmere world's so far, I had to wonder if the Cosmere went to war at the Era 4 time who as of now do you think would win such a conflict?

 

Now this does require a lot of assumptions, so I'm going to ask that all speculation be limited to that which has either been confirmed to happen, or which is heavily implied to happen before that time.

 

We are also going to assume that no alliances between worlds have been made, nor has any world been subjugated before the conflict starts.

 

So who would win?

Era 4?  You're going very, very far away. The only thing we know about Era 4 is that Scadrial and Roshar are hostile towards each other but not in a state of open war yet, Scadrial has spaceships which use Metallic arts, Roshar can traverse space with their Radiant powers, and that's it. All of that is from SotD and SotD2 only.

[Frustration]

13 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Era 4?  You're going very, very far away. The only thing we know about Era 4 is that Scadrial and Roshar are hostile towards each other but not in a state of open war yet, Scadrial has spaceships which use Metallic arts, Roshar can traverse space with their Radiant powers, and that's it. All of that is from SotD and SotD2 only.

Well the Secret projects are all close to that time, so we know a little bit more than that but yes this is a huge time jump, but it's also when large scale cosmere travel really becomes possible with multiple planets having spacefaring vessels

[alder24]

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Well the Secret projects are all close to that time, so we know a little bit more than that but yes this is a huge time jump, but it's also when large scale cosmere travel really becomes possible with multiple planets having spacefaring vessels

There are 2 confirmed planets with spaceships - Scadrial and Sel (or at least only Riina). That's all we know. It's really hard to speculate.

But If Roshar considers Scadrial as an enemy, but does not engage them in open war, that means Scadrial poses a considerable threat to Roshar, and vice versa. I like to think that in Era 4 Metalic Arts would not only be publicly accessible, but also fully fueled by unkeyed investiture and would be able to manipulate fundamental forces rivaling Surgebinding on equal terms (WoB). Then we have fresh advancement on Scadrial with creating non-lethal "customizable" spikes, with a comment hinting at the possibility of creating fully synthetic spikes.

But in case of Roshar, SotD2 spoilers:

Spoiler

We've seen a Skybreaker loading his Shardgun with some violet light, and his plate also emanating with a violet light (iirc), which for me is a clear suggestion that Honor and Odium is now held by a single Vessel, as a single Shard, creating Warlight to fuel Radiants. So we have a fully united Roshar, with Void spren and Honor spren working together, Unmades alongside Bondsmith spren, Voidbinding with Surgebinding. This can make some crazy powers and combinations. Imagine bonding Thrill.

And just like on Scadrial we've seen only 2 alloys of Atium out of 16, on Roshar we've seen only 1 type of Voidbinding (if it is what Renarin is doing) and 1 type of Lifebending (if it is what Lift is doing) out of 10. In both cases there is a huge potential for some incredible powers. Powers that we have no clue what they can even do.

And add to this Breaths and Awakened circuits, or Awakened fabrials/medallions/spikes etc. Another possibility which can result in crazy combinations of powers.

We've only have hints of what awaits us in the future, that's why it is so hard to speculate what even a future war will look like, not to mention who will win. 

Base on the fact that Roshar and Scadrial seem to be in a state of a cold war, they both have access to weapons of mass destruction and fear mutually assured destruction (as they're focusing on colonizing the largest amount of minor worlds but backing off if the other side has already colonized a planet first), there would be no winners in an open war between those two. Only losers.

[Scars of Hathsin he/him]

Is there a WOB saying that Scadrial and Roshar are hostile, because I found, and read, the one on Sixth of Dusk and the visit of the surgebinder

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Scars of Hathsin

[Frustration]

3 hours ago, Scars of Hathsin said:

Is there a WOB saying that Scadrial and Roshar are hostile, because I found, and read, the one on Sixth of Dusk and the visit of the surgebinder

 

I mean it's heavily implied that they don't like each other.

[alder24]

13 hours ago, Scars of Hathsin said:

Is there a WOB saying that Scadrial and Roshar are hostile, because I found, and read, the one on Sixth of Dusk and the visit of the surgebinder

If the Radiant said "either you side with us or them" I think it's pretty clear they aren't in good relations. Otherwise they would not compete for the same planet (in secret to add more).

[The Stick]

I believe Sel would be really hard to invade but useless to invade others. They have the Dor closing off any mass cognitive realm invasion and Aon Daa which they can probably refine into super lasers with tech. However, with the region locks, they cannot invade others.

[SwordNimiForPresident the sword/that sword]

5 hours ago, The Stick said:

I believe Sel would be really hard to invade but useless to invade others. They have the Dor closing off any mass cognitive realm invasion and Aon Daa which they can probably refine into super lasers with tech. However, with the region locks, they cannot invade others.

Unless I've missed something, Aon Dor is not region locked. We've seen it used on two other worlds by Shai, Riina and Hoid.

[alder24]

10 hours ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

Unless I've missed something, Aon Dor is not region locked. We've seen it used on two other worlds by Shai, Riina and Hoid.

Shai had to draw an Aon based on the Basin geography, which would likely act like the city of Elantris on Sel. Riina had a Lumar map in her tower, it might serve the same purpose, however it wasn't glowing like Shai's Aon. And Charlie's curse wasn't getting "weaker" the further away he was from Riina's tower. It might suggest that by the time Tress takes place, something changed in how the Dor works.

Spoiler

Jofwu

Why did Shay-I have to draw a map of the Elendel basin, if the jar of Dor was her source of Investiture? Did the map connect her to another source of Investiture?

Brandon Sanderson

No, the map didn't, but her magic is still wonky. Selish magic has some wonkiness to it and it needs to be tricked.

YouTube Spoiler Stream 5 (Dec. 2, 2022)

 

16 hours ago, The Stick said:

I believe Sel would be really hard to invade but useless to invade others. They have the Dor closing off any mass cognitive realm invasion and Aon Daa which they can probably refine into super lasers with tech. However, with the region locks, they cannot invade others.

Keep in mind we're talking about Era 4 war, and invasions at that time would happen primarily through PR, not CR. Sel being full of plasma in CR wouldn't matter for most invasion forces. Soulcasters would have a hard time soulcasting from CR, and that's it.

[Duxredux he/him]

15 hours ago, The Stick said:

I believe Sel would be really hard to invade but useless to invade others. They have the Dor closing off any mass cognitive realm invasion and Aon Daa which they can probably refine into super lasers with tech. However, with the region locks, they cannot invade others.

Mass war is not the only method of invasion. In Secret History, Kelsier's introduction to the bigger Cosmere politics was Khriss and Nazh (semi-helpful scholars) and the Ire, foreigners he didn't even know about who were prepared to forcibly Connect themselves to Preservation, taking a Shard that Kelsier didn't even know existed. Kelsier foiled Scadrial's first invasion plot (that we know of) and no one but the Shards knew it was in the process. Other than Shards, the Ire were one of the first groups that I know of to make an intersystem invasion and not just a scholarly pass.

As for Era 4 speculation, who other than Brandon and Dragonsteel even knows what state all of the Shards will be in, which if any have been taken up by new Vessels, which Vessels have been subsumed by the Shard's Intent, or if any of the Shards become perambulatory and go off to develop new or co-opted Invested Arts. As @alder24 said, there are whole branches of magic that we know currently exists and haven't been explored, let alone the possibility of new Invested Arts that could become pivotal. Who knows where each Dawnshard will be that far into the future and what each Invested Art could do with each Dawnshard? The list of "unknowns" full of pure speculation have such huge potential for upsets in the war that what we do know sans-speculation seems paltry. Brandon has enough tools and enough pieces he can move around that he can have the war go pretty much any direction he wants. He had that just by introducing the Dawnshards, four massive Chekhov's guns that were used in the Shattering.

More speculation, but based on the Dusk's reading of the situation in SotD, perhaps one or more Shards have made an agreement that that a planet must be of a minimum tech level or Cosmere awareness before it can be brought forcibly into the larger conflict - or that the major ruling bodies must agree to an alliance.

Who wins? I dunno.

[Frustration]

Honestly Sel would probably be one of the strongest worlds, during the cities peak there were thousands, maybe tens of thousands of Elantrians, and one of them could almost subjugate a world on her own.

I have a really hard time seeing how anyone but Bondsmiths could deal with a prepared Elantrian.

[Duxredux he/him]

On 6/5/2023 at 0:47 PM, Frustration said:

I have a really hard time seeing how anyone but Bondsmiths could deal with a prepared Elantrian.

Here's some ideas that might give other groups a chance against an Elantrian, though I'm not sure how much of a better chance. Having the ability to negate and resist AonDor like select members of Dakhor certainly would help. At least I assume Elantris 2, Dakhor, will still have these monks in a threatening capacity. Being able to hack Aons also helps (though we've only seen Hoid do this). Aluminum in general might help, though presumably aluminum or silver would not have cured Hoid or Charlie's curses otherwise Hoid or Ulaam would have utilized it. Well, probably at least for Charlie at the end.

I assume that Aons are relatively easy to understand by someone using Connection (at least, if Kelsier can learn to read Aons on the fly as a CS, anyone better prepared probably will be able to). By the very nature of using language-based magic, a sufficiently educated or Connected person will be able to read what the magic is meant to do, just like how a Soulstamp will always describe the change that it is making. Hoid was able to look at Charlie and know the stipulations of his curse, so we know that seeing the "code" of an active Aon is possible, though who knows who else would have that ability. This should make reacting to visible Aons relatively easy compared to abilities without such a visible tell.

The other question is if Raoden is exceptional or typical in his drawing speed, and precision. If most Elantrians can draw 2 perfect circles in the air with each hand (Aon Daa) while being attacked by Dakhor monks without Aons to augment themselves, then yeah, Elantrians would be really hard to beat. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if Raoden was pure talent. He had what, less than 3 months of practice? As far as I can tell (which admittedly isn't much information) Elantrians drawing new Aons have to remain stationary relative to the frame of reference when they started drawing the Aon. If you can actually get the jump on an Elantrian then their extended casting time will limit them to simpler Aons and may let you come out ahead when compared to a Radiant summoning a Shardblade.

Late game with fabrials, anti-Investiture, Southern Scadrian tech, Aluminum, and AonDor, makes attacking anyone who had sufficient time to booby trap their turf ridiculous dangerous. Just barging in without scoping out the place is a bad idea unless you know for a fact you can just tank everything. I suspect espionage and abilities that allow for covert operations and disarming these kinds of defenses may be highly valued.