Anniversary Game 9/Anonymous Game 13: Rebuilding Tyrian Falls

[Sapphire Elephant]

3 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

How does the village find three spiked on D3, wouldn't the spiked provide another candidate?

They tried (Swan and Weasel), but the village didn't bite. You tried with Dragonfly but similarly, village didn't bite.You weren't a candidate put forward by the Spiked - Toucan and Hyena put you up for execution.

It's certainly not the most common occurrence, but far from impossible, and the Spiked definitely tried to get something else going, not moving to you until over half way through the cycle.

8 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Elephant is mostly gathering and putting data in the thread. Which is something he does regardless of allignment. But it has only been for D1,D2,D3. Nothing later.

Day 4-6 are basically useless for analysis. Night actions gave us good Spiked candidates that essentially immediately got unanimous support for execution. No way of identifying bussing elims in that context.

What you're not seeing is the 15 pages of PMs with Meerkat through the early cycles, or the individual and group PMs with Rhino, Hyena, and Swan through those cycles.

[Pearl Chameleon]

34 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

It's certainly not the most common occurrence, but far from impossible, and the Spiked definitely tried to get something else going, not moving to you until over half way through the cycle.

46 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Why move on me though? I have no extra life and no way to survive the exe. So if I was set up as an alternative and I went through instead of Lion, I would have flipped. So why did so many of the spiked stay on me?

34 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

Day 4-6 are basically useless for analysis. Night actions gave us good Spiked candidates that essentially immediately got unanimous support for execution. No way of identifying bussing elims in that context.

What you're not seeing is the 15 pages of PMs with Meerkat through the early cycles, or the individual and group PMs with Rhino, Hyena, and Swan through those cycles.

How are they useless? True that night actions did give us the candidates but I think there was a certain point in which permission was given, at least for Croc. 

I haven't and I won't. But what if I believe you. What if Swan is spiked and has been kayana and mostly only shooting his own teammates.

We vote him off, and if he isn't evil. We lose our only chance to shoot the spiked at night. And why would a spiked waste SIX whole cycles shooting only their teammates and failing? Why?

[Emerald Falcon]

Yeah, ngl. I've been considering paranoid possibilities about Swan with defences in brackets - 

1. They are not the Coinshot at all [where is the counter-claim?].
2. They are the elim Coinshot, which requires another elim alive because both their kill and elim kill went through last Night [Lurcher, Thug, Lurcher, Tineye, Coinshot, ??? - Six member elim team versus Thug, Smoker x3, Tineye x2, Mistborn x2, Lurcher, Rioter is a seriously mechanically mismatched line up].
3. Uhhh, those are the only scenarios that explain Coinshot kills. I am, however, confused by the whole Swan-Rhino thread-brawl about Swan's claim. I went through the whole thing forwards-and-backwards three times and I still did not understand a thing. Can you elaborate @Coral Swan?
4. Number system go brr but why is the above point even a point under possibilities?

[Coral Swan]

On 18/01/2023 at 0:06 PM, Sunburst Toucan said:

[@Coral Swan did Elephant know you would be protected during the turn the Spiked attacked you?

Edit:

Some already know, but might as well clarify that I do not have a role.] 

Don’t believe so. I asked Penguin for protection once I figured out she’d rolled Lurcher, and since she did not PM me back afterwards, even I didn’t know I was being shielded till I survived.

22 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

I believe at that point Meerkat had connected me with the two Tineye and the Mistborn, but didn't have any knowledge of Swan as PoI just yet. I knew that the Penguin was likely to scan Croc N3, but I don't believe I heard about the N4 Lurch.

EDIT:

In case it helps, here's the break down of votes across Days 1-3. Obviously the colouring can now be updated to have Dragonfly, Mouse, Weasel, Swan, Penguin, Ostrich, and Toucan in green. 

• Day 1, Day 2
• Day 3

@Coral Swan I would like a response to why the voting patterns of C3 point to "Chameleon was hung out to dry by the Spiked", when E!Cham makes a fair amount of sense in the context of Spiked actions during that cycle - they work together to push Lion to the front, instead of Lurcher Flamingo, where some of them end on Cham as that was the only other relevant voting target, as established by early village votes. I just don't see how me deepwolfing so effectively as to being really slow to bother trying to move on any village target of note while keeping the second Mistborn and the Coinshot alive is so much more likely than E!Cham.

Eh, but. It makes a lot more sense for Chameleon to be Village on D3, and for you to be evil.  The vote in question is Scorp’s, really—I can give a more thorough breakdown when I’m not on mobile, but Scorp moves the votes from a tie between Flamingo/Lion to a tie between Cham and Lion. Why? If both are evil, Flamingo is by far under more pressure/more exposed because of the failed CS kill. Why endanger your presumed Soother? (I know Ostrich has claimed Soother, and he’s not the final Spiked, but I still believe, with three village Smokers, that the Elims got some form of Emotional Allomancy, which the final member has.)

45 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Yeah, ngl. I've been considering paranoid possibilities about Swan with defences in brackets - 

1. They are not the Coinshot at all [where is the counter-claim?].
2. They are the elim Coinshot, which requires another elim alive because both their kill and elim kill went through last Night [Lurcher, Thug, Lurcher, Tineye, Coinshot, ??? - Six member elim team versus Thug, Smoker x3, Tineye x2, Mistborn x2, Lurcher, Rioter is a seriously mechanically mismatched line up].
3. Uhhh, those are the only scenarios that explain Coinshot kills. I am, however, confused by the whole Swan-Rhino thread-brawl about Swan's claim. I went through the whole thing forwards-and-backwards three times and I still did not understand a thing. Can you elaborate @Coral Swan?
4. Number system go brr but why is the above point even a point under possibilities?

The thread-brawl was complete baloney. It was engineered in a large PM (which included Elephant) in the hopes that it would generate enough confusion and suspicion on me that the Spiked would stay away with their kill. 

(Okay sorry I have been busy with schoolwork and addressing some other things, here I go. And for some reason, mobile put my quotes above this line of text. Okay.)

Basically, no matter who’s evil, we have to explain something deeply counterintuitive and weird. If Elephant’s evil, he’s refrained from killing the CS/Mistborn for several consecutive cycles. This could be explained by not wanting to blow a deepwolf cover, but as he said, Pen and I were sitting ducks last night. My only other thought is that he wanted to get us to kill villagers for him—the more I misfire, the closer he can get to parity and the fewer cycles he has to dodge the Exe. Given how far off on the wrong track I was during C7, this is my working assumption. But I still don’t like it.

Elim!Falcon presents role challenges. While the D2 vote is a small point in their favour, Ostrich is right that I likely shouldn’t overblow it. However, the Thug claim is of interest, particularly since nobody else has claimed it. To put it straightforwardly: I would expect at least one village Thug in this distro, and thus far there are none to be found. So even if Falcon is lying, and is Vanilla Spiked or some form of emotional Allomancer, the distro still makes no sense. 

Elim!Chameleon is a nonsensical D3. I will review the D3 votes to confirm this, but the Scorp switch makes zero sense from an elim perspective with e!Cham.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

What if Swan is spiked and has been kayana and mostly only shooting his own teammates

I keep tinfoiling this too.

Would we have noticed Flamingo and Lion if Swan hadn't shot them tho?

[Pearl Chameleon]

Just now, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Would we have noticed Flamingo and Lion if Swan hadn't shot them tho?

No, Swan was comfortably flying under the radar and Lion was too, though coming under more heat. The elim tineye reaction test would have put them under greater suspicion. It did with Lion, though it wouldn't have necessarily done so with Flamingo. 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

37 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Don’t believe so. I asked Penguin for protection once I figured out she’d rolled Lurcher, and since she did not PM me back afterwards, even I didn’t know I was being shielded till I survived.

I didn't know you'd asked me for protection until after Rollover. I just protected you because I thought you'd been talking as if the Elims were planning to get rid of you soon, and I didn't like that plan. I think I submitted the protection order around the time I told you I had rolled Lurcher.

[Coral Swan]

5 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

The other thing I wanted to say is that honestly at this point, I'm starting to get concerned about Swan. It's pretty wild to jump immediately to a deepwolf claim when there's better options, but it's less wild to jump to that if Swan has been deep wolfing this whole time, and was aiming to get in first to set the tone of the final cycles. I do think it's more likely that they're just weirdly tunnelling at this point, because I don't see it making all that much sense. But it seems just a likely to me as the situation Swan proposes, and because they've been weird this cycle, I'm not longer willing to entirely accept that they're clean with certainty. Though realistically village has likely lost if there are 2 Spiked remaining at this point, unless N8 is particularly favourable to the village, so there's not a lot of sense to actually dwelling on that.

If you are looking at this distro and legitimately believe in a six person elim team with a Thug and a Coinshot, I have a bridge to sell you. Transportation not provided.

I will note that I have re-looked D3 and am slightly more sympathetic to your Chameleon argument, to the point where I’d agree it’s a more productive line of inquiry than falcon, but I still struggle to explain the Scorpion and Flamingo vote switches in light of e!Cham, especially Flamingo’s. Why do you re-tie your Soother with your Thug in the Exe?

[Coral Swan]

Double-posting, because I think this analysis is important. 

Spoiler

Day 3 Voting Record

Notes: Green players have flipped village. Blue players are role-cleared from submitting the Spiked kill. Purple players are inactivity-cleared from submitting the Spiked kill. Yellow players are the current suspect pool. Red players have flipped Elim. Bolded names indicate person(s) leading the vote count. An italicised vote is the final one the player cast.

Crocodile votes Swan for expecting that others will read me village

Meerkat votes Lion

Swan votes Flamingo and bugs him about surviving

Flamingo votes Swan, puts me in full lead with “potentially lethal placeholder”

Rhino votes Flamingo, tying him in the lead anew

Crocodile moves his vote from Swan to Weasel, letting Flamingo take the sole lead

Toucan votes for Mouse for her Heron vote

Scorpion votes Flamingo, putting him in the lead by two votes (this vote does not stick lol)

Mouse piles onto Flamingo. Wagon is now 4-1.

Flamingo (4): Swan, Rhino, Mouse, Scorpion

Swan (1): Flamingo

Lion (1): Meerkat

Weasel (1): Crocodile

Mouse (1): Toucan

Toucan moves from Mouse to Chameleon

Rhino moves from Flamingo to Chameleon

Flamingo (3): Swan, Mouse, Scorpion

Chameleon (2): Toucan, Rhino

Swan (1): Flamingo

Lion (1): Meerkat

Weasel (1): Crocodile

Chameleon arrives and decides to vote for Dragonfly. Didn’t pile onto Flamingo, but also didn’t pile onto me or Weasel.

Hyena votes for Dragonfly citing Meerkat’s reasoning.

Flamingo (3): Swan, Mouse, Scorpion

Chameleon (2): Toucan, Rhino

Dragonfly (2): Chameleon, Hyena

Swan (1): Flamingo

Lion (1): Meerkat

Weasel (1): Crocodile

Crocodile shows up again and now decides to add a second vote to Lion, retracting from Weasel. Note the consolidation on the Elim Thug as an emergency panic button–most obviously, it will save Flamingo later, but it could be interpreted as defending Cham.

A lot of discussion intervenes here–if I weren’t looking strictly at votes, I’d note some of it.

Falcon now enters and votes for Flamingo. Given the vote situation, with three people at two votes each, this is a crucial step in giving Flamingo that two-point lead. I read this very village.

Flamingo (4): Swan, Mouse, Scorpion, Falcon

Chameleon (2): Toucan, Rhino

Dragonfly (2): Chameleon, Hyena

Lion (2): Meerkat, Crocodile

Swan (1): Flamingo

Elephant finally votes on Chameleon. This is very interesting because it sticks, and it dilutes the vote lead which Flamingo has just received. It also vaults Chameleon above Dragonfly and Lion in the lynch discussion. If Chameleon is evil, Elephant is a genius; if he’s not, then he’s almost certainly Spiked.

Flamingo (4): Swan, Mouse, Scorpion, Falcon

Chameleon (3): Toucan, Rhino, Elephant

Dragonfly (2): Chameleon, Hyena

Lion (2): Meerkat, Crocodile

Swan (1): Flamingo

Rhino switches again following this vote from Chameleon to Lion. This offsets Elephant’s most recent switch and places Lion in second again. 

Flamingo (4): Swan, Mouse, Scorpion, Falcon

Lion (3): Meerkat, Crocodile, Rhino

Chameleon (2): Toucan, Elephant

Dragonfly (2): Chameleon, Hyena

Swan (1): Flamingo

Flamingo now gets back on and retracts from Swan to vote Penguin, not adding to any existing wagon yet.

Weasel votes for Chameleon, re-tying him in second place.

Flamingo (4): Swan, Mouse, Scorpion, Falcon

Lion (3): Meerkat, Crocodile, Rhino

Chameleon (3): Toucan, Elephant, Weasel

Dragonfly (2): Chameleon, Hyena

Penguin (1): Flamingo

Chameleon now posts again and shifts his vote from Dragonfly to Lion, tying him in the lead. While this fails to further bury Flamingo, I read this relatively positively, especially given the Penguin vanity wagon from Flamingo.

Flamingo (4): Swan, Mouse, Scorpion, Falcon

Lion (4): Meerkat, Crocodile, Rhino, Chameleon

Chameleon (3): Toucan, Elephant, Weasel

Dragonfly (1): Hyena

Penguin (1): Flamingo

Scorpion now posts, choosing to retract from Flamingo, permanently removing them from the lead, and vote on Chameleon. This move is why I am minded to view Cham as village. If Scorp was choosing between elim teammates here, why do you not bury your Thug? 

Lion (4): Meerkat, Crocodile, Rhino, Chameleon

Chameleon (4): Toucan, Elephant, Weasel, Scorpion

Flamingo (3): Swan, Mouse, Falcon

Dragonfly (1): Hyena

Penguin (1): Flamingo

Weasel gets frustrated with the tie and vaults Lion ahead of Chameleon by retracting from the latter and voting for the former, giving Lion a two-vote lead. This does put the Elim Thug in the lead.

Lion (5): Meerkat, Crocodile, Rhino, Chameleon, Weasel

Chameleon (3): Toucan, Elephant, Scorpion

Flamingo (3): Swan, Mouse, Falcon

Dragonfly (1): Hyena

Penguin (1): Flamingo

Flamingo now tries to pump the brakes and puts Chameleon back into contention with his vote, retracting off Penguin. Again: why reintroduce your teammate into contention here? What good does it serve you?

Lion (5): Meerkat, Crocodile, Rhino, Chameleon, Weasel

Chameleon (4): Toucan, Elephant, Scorpion, Flamingo

Flamingo (3): Swan, Mouse, Falcon

Dragonfly (1): Hyena

Mouse now switches from Flamingo to Lion, believing the former to no longer be viable.

Ostrich solidifies a Lion vote, contributing a seventh to the tally. In the moments before rollover, the vote state looks like this: 

Lion (7): Meerkat, Crocodile, Rhino, Chameleon, Weasel, Mouse, Ostrich

Chameleon (4): Toucan, Elephant, Scorpion, Flamingo

Flamingo (2): Swan, Falcon

Dragonfly (1): Hyena

Swan now tries to bait Elims by switching off Flamingo temporarily to Chameleon.

Hyena, spooked by the switch, consolidates, retracts from Dragonfly and adds an eighth Lion vote.

Swan switches back to what is at this point the Flamingo vanity wagon.

Final vote count, pre-manip (Ostrich helpfully Soothes a vote off Chameleon):

Lion (8): Meerkat, Crocodile, Rhino, Chameleon, Weasel, Mouse, Ostrich, Hyena

Chameleon (4): Toucan, Elephant, Scorpion, Flamingo

Flamingo (2): Swan, Falcon

 

[Sunburst Toucan]

[I agree that Flamingo and Scorpion piling onto Chameleon does make it considerably harder to buy an E!Chameleon world. Chameleon could be another E!thug, perhaps, however that still does not explain why they chose to prioritize Lion over Chameleon, especially considering the heat Lion had already been receiving. Chameleon being a vanilla eliminator is a tiny bit more believable.
Swan cannot be an eliminator because one cannot submit multiple orders in a turn, and if they are not the coinshot they would have been outed while PMs were open. 
Sapphire Elephant it is.] 

[Elandera she/her]

This turn is over! Standby as the sun sets!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Night Eight: Sleepwalker or Spiked?

The chill of evening settled in quickly over Tyrian Falls. Oleinda stepped into it, letting the breeze dry away the tears. They grew cold on her cheeks as she listened to people retiring. It had been a difficult day. Her hands still stung, the bandages rough and itchy against her tender skin. It was more than her own discomfort, though. Too many people dead and gone. Too many of her friends. Her town had returned to how it had been a year ago. Distrustful. Resentful. Scared. There was little any of them could do to change it now. There were too few of them left.

Afandor rested his hand on her shoulder. “Maybe we should leave. Go back to my home.”

“You know I can’t. Tyrian is— well, it’s my home. It’s what I know. Learning somewhere new isn’t exactly easy for me.”

“Maybe someone else found something today. They’re gathering in town again.”

Oleinda sagged against him, unsure if that would be better or worse. She believed with all of her heart in letting the people decide. For too long, everything they did was dictated by the Lord Ruler. They were free to choose now, as difficult as that might be. But what if what they chose was wrong? It already had been so often. 

“We’ll keep trying, Oleinda. Until the very end, if that’s what you wish.”

She sighed softly, knowing what they should do even if she held little hope anymore. “Let’s go, then.”

~~~

The interrogation of Ciril Yuanivori began before the bodies of last night’s carnage had cooled. “We know you’re awake at night, Ciril.”

“What? How do you know that? Why would that mean I’m Spiked?”

“We see you sleeping all throughout the day,” Koros continued. “You pass out when you’re eating, when you’re reading, when you’re talking, even when you’re moving. All that sleeping during the day must make you alert at night, doesn’t it?”

“This is ridiculous!” Ciril protested. “I sleep at night as much as anyone.”

“Ah, but not all the way through,” Onidsen pressed the attack. “You take your naps day or night, but spend time awake intermittently. Long enough to go out into the mists. Long enough to kill Wessle.” 

Ciril began backing up, but saw that though the number of villagers had diminished, there were still enough people to surround him. 

“Fine! I wake up sporadically during the night, but that’s hardly evidence. Onidsen goes out at night, and I hear Donn Keihote does as well.” He began to panic, eyes darting back and forth looking for the best way to escape his predicament. “Linaan, Sidor, Oleinda, Afandor, I’ve seen them all wandering the streets come nightfall. Why can’t you believe that the real Spiked does too?” 

“Sorry, Ciril, but we have to go with the simplest option,” was Avil’s regretful response. “We can’t give the Spiked any room to run.”

Ciril’s face hardened. “Keep that resolve when I’m-” then bolted for a gap that had opened up in the circle. Sidor was there to meet him, axe at the ready. Obsidian met ivory, and Ciril Yuanivori abruptly dropped off to sleep one last time.

---

Sapphire Elephant was executed! They were a Vanilla Villager!

Vote Count:

Sapphire Elephant (6): Fuchsia Ostrich, Pearl Chameleon, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Sunburst Toucan, Chartreuse Penguin

Pearl Chameleon (1): Sapphire Elephant

Night Eight has begun! This turn will end Friday, January 20 at 6:00 PM PST / Saturday January 21 at 2 a.m. GMT / 1 p.m. AEDT

PMs are CLOSED

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Amethyst Scorpion - Scop Spiked Lurcher

2. @Azure Mouse Vanilla Villager

3. @Charcoal Hyena - Aylia Village Tineye

4. @Chartreuse Penguin - Donn Keihote (Insane)

5. @Coral Swan - Onidsen (Scholar, Caroler; has animal companion)

6. @Cream Tuatara - Willam (Terris Steward) Vanilla Villager

7. @Emerald Falcon - Luciel (sheriff)

8. @Fuchsia Ostrich - Koros (Secret Agent)

9. @Indigo Weasel Vanilla Villager

10. @Ivory Dragonfly - (Manic Ghostblood) Village Smoker

11. @Magenta Albatross -VarLeel Vanilla Villager

12. @Mauve Crocodile - (Obli-gator) Spiked Tineye

13. @Melon Dingo - Reverse (Glassblower, not psychologist) Village Smoker

14. @Mint Heron- Reneau (Former Obligator in denial) Village Smoker

15. @Onyx Flamingo - Agolac (Forgetful) Spiked Lurcher

16. @Opal Lion - Guy (Internet Speak) Spiked Thug

17. @Sunburst Toucan - Avil Ejir

18. @Pearl Chameleon - WitLees (Kandra barkeep)

19. @Plum Rhinoceros Village Tineye

20. @Saffron Iguana - Taltin Keriell (Undercover nobleman spy) Village Rioter

21. @Sage Kangaroo - (High Imperial) Village Lurcher

22. @Salmon Meerkat - Aurelien (Awake) Village Mistborn

23. @Sapphire Elephant - Ciril Yuanivori (Sleepwalking oversleeper) Vanilla Villager

 

[Pearl Chameleon]

AHHHH, please shoot me now. 

So it has to be me, Falcon, or two spiked right? Right?

I am walking in circles treading the same path and am no longer able to see any other alternatives. I honestly think there is only one more person on the elim team, given that I am the SIXTH village vanilla. No way the village doesn't recieve more padding if there are six elims.

And if there are two elims left, then Penguin and Swan can't be teamed together and each of them can't be paired with Toucan or Ostrich because of inactivity. 

We see FAR too many shadows in the dark and we jump at the slightest chance that passes our minds. Falcon. I vote Falcon to be shoot, though I really wouldn't mind being shot right now. Falcon or me HAVE to be teamed with an elim if there are two left. So shoot one of the two of us. Mine is easily provable, since I will die and if Falcon is a thug he will survive.

[Emerald Falcon]

Yeah, unless I'm double-tapped by the elim, I'll survive. Either way, you'll get your confirmation. 

And to be clear, Penguin was the one who scanned Croc as red right? Because I'm on Paranoia part 2.

[Coral Swan]

4 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

AHHHH, please shoot me now. 

So it has to be me, Falcon, or two spiked right? Right?

I am walking in circles treading the same path and am no longer able to see any other alternatives. I honestly think there is only one more person on the elim team, given that I am the SIXTH village vanilla. No way the village doesn't recieve more padding if there are six elims.

And if there are two elims left, then Penguin and Swan can't be teamed together and each of them can't be paired with Toucan or Ostrich because of inactivity. 

We see FAR too many shadows in the dark and we jump at the slightest chance that passes our minds. Falcon. I vote Falcon to be shoot, though I really wouldn't mind being shot right now. Falcon or me HAVE to be teamed with an elim if there are two left. So shoot one of the two of us. Mine is easily provable, since I will die and if Falcon is a thug he will survive.

See, I'm starting to wonder.

The basis for the Toucan clear is literally a minute of difference. He was "on" at 8:59; the cycle closed at 9:00.

Is it really so ridiculous to postulate that, upon losing Scorpion, Toucan made the deliberate decision to only appear inactive for the night turn? Consider the following situation: Toucan opens his GM PM one minute before the cycle closes. He waits a minute or two until the start of the Night turn, when his order is valid, then hits send and closes the Shard for 24 hours. The Shard, seeing that he opened the PM at 8:59, does not record this minute or two of discrepancy. Meanwhile, we go on a wild goose chase after otherwise trustworthy people.

Is it really that crazy? Toucan doesn't have to kill me; I'm not going to hit him if I think he's mechanically cleared. He is an otherwise very active player, having contributed significantly to our trust PMs before they were blown apart. Why vanish for those 24 hours? Why log out of the Shard a minute before the close of the cycle and not even bother to check the Day results? Unless you were trying something.

Yes, Chameleon, you could be evil. Same with you, Falcon. But I've looked at those vote counts until my head wants to burst out of my skull. They don't add up. You haven't asked for mercy. You've asked to be shot. You want to help the village, I think, because you are a villager. The Spiked tried to kill you. They sat on their hands when Falcon was getting strung up, cool as cucumbers. The Thug question still doesn't add up with e!Falcon. Do I trust that, or do I trust a server-reported number which is known to have caused issues in the past?

I've avoided bringing this up before, because it seemed paranoid, even though I've filed it away in my head ever since the initial clear. I want to trust Toucan. I've liked his contributions. But ultimately, I think to have been wrong for as long as I have, I have to be missing something. And this might be it. 

Toucan does not have exculpatory voting patterns. As soon as he was folded more fully into the trust group, it started dying. Rhino shot. Hyena shot. No more PMs. We know he was playing as the CS in some PMs. We thought it was good phishing, trying to get the Spiked to bite. But it is, by its very nature, performative, and Elims can perform such things just as easily as villagers.

@Pearl Chameleon, @Emerald Falcon, I recognise I could be wrong here. But if I am wrong, I'd rather be wrong here than keep shooting up people I think are village. I'm going with my initial list. I'm shooting Toucan tonight. If I'm wrong again, and I may well be, you two can fight it out tomorrow. @Sapphire Elephant, I add you to the list of people I need to beg forgiveness from. To be fair, your voting patterns weren't the best. But we were both too paranoid, and not paranoid enough.

@Chartreuse Penguin Protect whomever you will. I suggest yourself, as if I miss a shot tonight then my Coinshooting will start becoming actively dangerous, if it isn't already. @Fuchsia Ostrich, have the Soothe on standby. If I miss, we'll probably need it. I would un-clear you as well, but your inactivity was more extended, and I have been village reading you for an eternity anyway. 

Even if I sound like a broken record at this point: I am sorry. I keep leading the village into swamps. This is why I should never, ever be trusted with thread control.  I miss Kas and Hyena and Rhino and Mouse and Ele and Weasel and everyone else who kept my madness in check. 

1 minute ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Yeah, unless I'm double-tapped by the elim, I'll survive. Either way, you'll get your confirmation. 

And to be clear, Penguin was the one who scanned Croc as red right? Because I'm on Paranoia part 2.

Yes.

---

A half-repeat. I don't know if this is for me or the final Spiked at this point  

Sind Blitze, sind Donner in Wolken verschwunden?

Eröffne den feurigen Abgrund, o Hölle,

Zertrümmre, verderbe, verschlinge, zerschelle

Mit plötzlicher Wut

Den falschen Verräter, das mördrische Blut!

[Pearl Chameleon]

9 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Even if I sound like a broken record at this point: I am sorry. I keep leading the village into swamps. This is why I should never, ever be trusted with thread control.  I miss Kas and Hyena and Rhino and Mouse and Ele and Weasel and everyone else who kept my madness in check. 

15 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I have to learn how to keep my own in check before I can keep others in check

But part of it I think is that what you are saying sounds logical and very well could be true. And I don't really think you're evil. Falcon hasn't really seemed evil either. Ostritch was cleared by a large margin, over two hours. So that leaves a possible pool of me, Falcon, and Toucan. Because for anyone else to be evil, they have to have a teammate.

[Emerald Falcon]

*sigh*  this game...

[Chartreuse Penguin]

I'm going to protect either myself or Swan - I'll flip a coin to decide which.

[Sunburst Toucan]

4 hours ago, Coral Swan said:

The basis for the Toucan clear is literally a minute of difference. He was "on" at 8:59; the cycle closed at 9:00.

Is it really so ridiculous to postulate that, upon losing Scorpion, Toucan made the deliberate decision to only appear inactive for the night turn? Consider the following situation: Toucan opens his GM PM one minute before the cycle closes. He waits a minute or two until the start of the Night turn, when his order is valid, then hits send and closes the Shard for 24 hours. The Shard, seeing that he opened the PM at 8:59, does not record this minute or two of discrepancy. Meanwhile, we go on a wild goose chase after otherwise trustworthy people.

Is it really that crazy? Toucan doesn't have to kill me; I'm not going to hit him if I think he's mechanically cleared. He is an otherwise very active player, having contributed significantly to our trust PMs before they were blown apart. Why vanish for those 24 hours? Why log out of the Shard a minute before the close of the cycle and not even bother to check the Day results? Unless you were trying something.

Yes, Chameleon, you could be evil. Same with you, Falcon. But I've looked at those vote counts until my head wants to burst out of my skull. They don't add up. You haven't asked for mercy. You've asked to be shot. You want to help the village, I think, because you are a villager. The Spiked tried to kill you. They sat on their hands when Falcon was getting strung up, cool as cucumbers. The Thug question still doesn't add up with e!Falcon. Do I trust that, or do I trust a server-reported number which is known to have caused issues in the past?

I've avoided bringing this up before, because it seemed paranoid, even though I've filed it away in my head ever since the initial clear. I want to trust Toucan. I've liked his contributions. But ultimately, I think to have been wrong for as long as I have, I have to be missing something. And this might be it. 

I cannot possibly defend myself against that argument, but I will say I dropped several activity warnings. I will also say that as an eliminator, I do not have much reason to fake claim CS to Weasel because what does that get me? An eliminator trying that only gets them suspicion because it can easily be interpreted as phishing for the real coinshot. The only player who knew about that gambit was Meerkat, and the eliminators offed him the very same turn. Were I an eliminator, I would not have immediately killed him since I would have liked someone to back me up when the gambit came to light. This gambit is not at all viable for an eliminator simply because it is not worth the risk of it exploding in your face. I will add that I do not think I would have gone after the village Tineyes first, but rather the Mistborn and the Coinshot as they are considerably more volatile roles. Add the fact that I was never actually told Hyena’s role, nor that the last tineye was part of trust group. Hence I could not have used PoE to get Hyena’s role. 
That is all I have to offer as defense, so coinshoot me if you must, but I will suggest you execute Falcon in the day turn, as I am starting to feel better about Chameleon. 

[Elandera she/her]

One hour left for actions!

[Elandera she/her]

That's the end of the turn! Stand by for the next!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Aftermath: Streaked with Blood

“Tonight is the last,” Oleinda said with a sad kind of finality lacing her voice. After hearing poor Ciril fall to an axe, and then to learn he was free of any spikes, she had decided she could stay no longer. One more night of searching and that was it. “We’ll go to your home tomorrow.”

Even if they found and rid the town of all the spiked, Tyrian Falls was no longer what it had been. It would not rebuild easily, and she could do little to help in that process.

“Are you certain?” Afandor asked. Vials of metal clinked and fabric rustled as he prepared for their last patrol. “As you said, learning somewhere new will be difficult.”

“I won’t be alone, though. Right?” Her voice broke, knowing how difficult the future would be.

She heard footsteps, then Afandor pulled her into a hug. “Never.”

“Then let’s see what we can do for Tyrian before we leave. One last gift for the town I loved.”

~~~

The mists hung heavy over Tyrian Falls. Afandor held little love for the place. He’d only known it to bring trouble for Oleinda over the years—especially in the last two years. But he knew what it meant for her. He knew what it meant that she was willing to leave.

His heart had broken for hers, just a fraction, when he’d heard her decision. Most of her friends were gone. Long buried by the remnants of a broken city. 

Afandor looked out over that city, clouded by the mists, seeing the scaffolding and broken buildings from the Scimon’s last stand. The one that had nearly taken his Oleinda. They had made great strides towards rebuilding.

“What is out there,” Oleinda asked. They sat next to each other on the roof of her home.

They’d decided that standing vigil might be better. They might see or hear something if they stilled long enough.

“Mists. And stillness. No one is—”

Movement. A flickering of light a few streets away, barely noticeable through the mist. Afandor burned steel to traced the movement of blue lines snaking through the streets towards the town center.

“Let’s go,” Afandor said as he stood. He grabbed Oleinda’s hand and pulled her to her feet and then to his side. Trusting that she was burning copper, he leaped into the mists, Pushing off the nails of her home.

He landed on the ground, staying in the shadows but close enough to make out the figure—no, figures—walking in the mist. One was clearly following the other, who appeared oblivious.

Could this be it? Could this be the spiked? Afandor didn’t want to act too quickly. “There are two people. I don’t recognize—”

“Morrow,” the one behind shouted from below. “I know what you did.”

“That’s Koros,” Oleinda whispered.

The figure in front turned, shoulders bunching as if they were preparing for a fight. “You know so little.”

“You need to come with me. Back to the agency,” Koros said. “Don’t make this difficult.”

Morrow laughed. It was low and harsh.

Afandor paused. This was strange. Agency? Maybe their problems had nothing to do with the spiked.

“Morrow, please. We were friends once, but I’ll do what I must.”

“This is so much more than your petty files and lives.” Morrow stepped toward Koros. “I could show you, if you’d like. Introduce you to a world beyond your imagining. There is more in this world than us, friend.” Morrow looked beyond Koros, into the darkness of the alley.

A flash of flame reflecting pulled Afandor’s attention in the same direction. A figure carrying a large obsidian axe. He cursed. Only a spiked would carry such a weapon.

Morrow grinned and pulled free his own obsidian knife. “Tyrian will fall to Ruin. Tonight.”

“Ruin will fall, and so will you.” Koros launched forward, unsheathing his own weapon.

“I’m going in,” Afandor said to Oleinda as he ran to the edge of the roof. “Go find help.”

“Stay safe,” she said as battle broke out in the old town square. The same place Scimon Tlag made his last stand.

Afandor ran past Koros and Morrow. They were locked in a battle and Koros seemed to have the upperhand. He wouldn’t be able to handle two, though.

Throwing coins before him, he sprayed them towards the oncoming figure with the obsidian axe. The figure swiped at just the right moment, knocking each coin from its path. But the figure’s hood fell.

Avil Ejir.

He recognized him from the town gatherings. He had seemed so honest in pursuing the spiked. With a curse, Afandor pulled free his daggers and ran forward. He would fight. For those who had died. For those who had been unjustly killed in pursuit of this traitor. For Oleinda, who loved this place so much.

Avil was skilled, easily dodging his attacks. Even when he launched more coins, Avil shook off the attacks.

Pain sliced across his side as he caught him with his axe. Then he kicked his knee, bones crunching as it was forced in the wrong direction. He crumpled to the ground and waited for the killing blow.

“I’m not here for you,” he said. Then he stepped away, towards Koros.

Afandor breathed in through ragged breaths, trying to ignore the pain as it tried to pull him into unconsciousness. He saw another crumpled figure, blood seeping across the ground. In his hand, Koros held a thin spike.

He’d defeated Morrow, and found a spike. “

Then Avil was there, burying his axe into Koros’s back.

He fell without a sound onto the stones.

Just before Afandor succumbed to the darkness, he noticed another in the mists, lurking above the scene. Watching. Waiting.

~~~

The Coinshot launched into view and hovered over the scene, watching the blood flowing from Koros’s body slow to a trickle and confirming that Afandor yet drew breath. Rather than launching an attack, the Coinshot removed his hood to reveal the face of Onidsen. He then launched a small projectile directly upwards where it exploded in a burst of light.

Linaan and Onidsen, who had been expecting it, were able to cover their ears against the sound from the explosion, but Avil was caught off guard long enough for a ring of torchlight to erupt around him. Sidor and her agents directed the remaining villagers to close off Avil’s retreat, forming a second circle behind them. 

“Avil?” WitLees questioned. “How can this be? He’s literally a villager.” 

“I am,” Avil protested. “I came out here to take notes and saw Koros there fighting with this other person. I rushed to intervene, but I was too late. Onidsen caught me trying in vain to patch up his wounds.”

“You’re not carrying a notebook,” Luciel observed, stepping closer with the heavy, deliberate footfalls of a man burning pewter.

Avil sneered. “I don’t have to explain myself to a Spiked, but I’ll grant your last request. I dropped it in my panic to save Koros. I’ll have plenty of time to retrieve it after Onidsen executes you.”

“Only one more person will die tonight,” Onidsen intoned, grabbing a handful of coins in his hands and readying to launch them at Avil before he suddenly stopped and lowered his hands.

“That’s right,” Avil said. “I don’t fear dying for the village, but killing me now is a waste. Let’s reason it out. I can’t have killed Wessle, nor could you or Donn Keihote. Koros was innocent, so that leaves WitLees and Luciel. We can kill them both now and guarantee the safety of our village.”

WitLees and Luciel objected, but made no sudden movements, warily eying not just the coins in Onidsen’s hands but Sidor’s ring of agents circling behind them and the hyena prowling just outside the ring of torchlight. Onidsen’s hands dropped, as if considering Avil’s words. Only Donn Keihote was ready to take action.

“He’s soothing us! I’ll take care of it!” An invisible coppercloud burst out in a radius around him, freeing everyone from the effects of Avil’s soothing. Avil began to panic, eyes darting in the direction where he’d thrown his axe into the darkness. Onidsen was quicker. Coins ripped through Avil’s torso, mixing his blood in with the already bloodstained street.

~~~

“Such a waste,” Ruin’s voice echoed in Linaan’s head. “It’s time for me to resolve this situation myself.” On the ground where Avil lay dying, he suddenly had a final burst of strength. He drew four steel spikes from the inside of his robes, embedding two in his eyes and two between his ribs. 

He burned pewter, and immediately the fatal wounds inflicted by the coins proved no impediment at all. He burned iron, and his enhanced ironpull easily ripped away Onidsen’s remaining coins, along with the metal vials of Onidsen, Donn Keihote, and Luciel. He burned tin, and suddenly the obscuring blackness of night was as day. He leapt directly to his axe and picked it up, brandishing it at the crowd of villagers.

“All our enemies gathered in one place!” Avil declared, in a voice that was both his and Ruin’s. “We will slay you all.”

---

Sunburst Toucan was killed by a Coinshot! They were a Spiked Soother!
Fuchsia Ostrich was killed by the Spiked! They were a Village Soother!

The game has ended, and the Villagers have won!

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Amethyst Scorpion - Scop Spiked Lurcher

2. @Azure Mouse Vanilla Villager

3. @Charcoal Hyena - Aylia Village Tineye

4. @Chartreuse Penguin - Donn Keihote (Insane)

5. @Coral Swan - Onidsen (Scholar, Caroler; has animal companion)

6. @Cream Tuatara - Willam (Terris Steward) Vanilla Villager

7. @Emerald Falcon - Luciel (sheriff)

8. @Fuchsia Ostrich - Koros (Secret Agent) Village Soother

9. @Indigo Weasel Vanilla Villager

10. @Ivory Dragonfly - (Manic Ghostblood) Village Smoker

11. @Magenta Albatross -VarLeel Vanilla Villager

12. @Mauve Crocodile - (Obli-gator) Spiked Tineye

13. @Melon Dingo - Reverse (Glassblower, not psychologist) Village Smoker

14. @Mint Heron- Reneau (Former Obligator in denial) Village Smoker

15. @Onyx Flamingo - Agolac (Forgetful) Spiked Lurcher

16. @Opal Lion - Guy (Internet Speak) Spiked Thug

17. @Sunburst Toucan - Avil Ejir Spiked Soother

18. @Pearl Chameleon - WitLees (Kandra barkeep)

19. @Plum Rhinoceros Village Tineye

20. @Saffron Iguana - Taltin Keriell (Undercover nobleman spy) Village Rioter

21. @Sage Kangaroo - (High Imperial) Village Lurcher

22. @Salmon Meerkat - Aurelien (Awake) Village Mistborn

23. @Sapphire Elephant - Ciril Yuanivori (Sleepwalking oversleeper) Vanilla Villager

Hello everyone! The game is over, and it's voting time! Every year we award three non-Sanderson passes to AG players, and this year will be no different. Please PM us your top three choices in order. The traditional criterion is "best Cosmetic Role adherent", but if you would like to pick based on something else you are free to do so. You can PM us in your GM PM on your anon account or in the PM where you received your login details on your regular account. (Both the original player and pinch-hitter for an account can cast votes if they so desire.) Also, as a reminder to those logging in to their anon account for the first time in a while, please do not authenticate it.

We will not be revealing identities yet. That will happen when the votes are done at which point we will post part 2 of the aftermath, post the master spreadsheet , announce pass winners, and make any other announcements .  We will also try to put up our post mortems at that point; in the meantime, feel free to talk here on your anon account.

Doc Links:

Dead Doc
Dead Doc 2.0
Elim Doc

Edited January 21, 2023 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Azure Mouse]

And thus, Tyrian rises

It must be said, holding to a CR void of first person and situated almost entirely in the passive voiced proved extremely challenging. Do you know how hard it is to out an elim in the passive voice????

(also, village did win, right??)

Edited January 21, 2023 by Azure Mouse

[Onyx Flamingo]

Great game everyone! A special congrats to Swan for going with analysis over login times, despite that being the final nail in my team's coffin. I'd like to list off things that I could have done better, but honestly this was just a solid show from the village.

My team was lots of fun to play with, and Toucan deserves some extra credit for sticking through until the end there.

And of course, I'm looking forward to another year of SE with y'all. Thanks for helping making this community the place it is.

[Pearl Chameleon]

Hah! You were right Swan! Finally it's over finally!

Spoiler

And now I disappear to read the dead doc and leave you with a fact.

Tyrian Falls has never been conquered by spiked since AG8, the curse has been flipped on it's head >:D