Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Report Share Posted January 9, 2023 it might be impossible to tell without a couple more red flips, but i think when we have an idea of crocs teammates, we may be able to see a pattern. to reiterate, i acknowledge this is prolly conf bias, but lion's vote seems abnormal to me which supports my worldview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Weasel Posted January 9, 2023 Report Share Posted January 9, 2023 I agree, Lions felt off. I'm not sure if that's confirmation bias, but their posts have felt off to me since about night 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 9, 2023 Report Share Posted January 9, 2023 Why not just get a Lion flip then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted January 9, 2023 Report Share Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) Flamingo Considering previous suspicions of Hyena, and nu!Hy adamantly defending Flamingo, feeling odd about possible connections. Will review Apologies for absence from the thread; planning a wedding Edited January 9, 2023 by Azure Mouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 9, 2023 Report Share Posted January 9, 2023 Flip one person at a time, don't give the elims any chance at vote manip. So my vote is staying where it is. It's time we solved the mystery of three survivals in a row. Going to try to analyze Lion because they've seemed off to me since, D3. Probably won't get it done tonight too much other stuff I have to do IRL, like homework. 1 minute ago, Azure Mouse said: Apologies for absence from the thread; planning a wedding Congradulations to the lucky couple! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 12 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: yeah that's a valid strat, i was also hoping that elims would not kill me and instead vote me for being overtly chaotic unfortunately pretty much everyone found me suspicious, so its hard to differentiate between the two i think at this point both flamingo and lion are essential flips, whether or not my theory is right, because it's too risky to let either live and we ultimately lose nothing in trying im happy for us to attempt figuring out the e!lurcher's identity with the rest of this turn. would be easier with more red and green flips, but exploring other suspicions is better than just twiddling our thumbs and waiting [OOC: Does no one else notice Rhino clearly attempting to subtly set themselves up as the next Meerkas of the thread? Like, am I just seeing things? Meerkas dies, then Rhino comes out of the woodwork and starts talking about all this "village trust circle" business (not specifically quoted here). Rhino supposedly knew Meerkas was a mistborn the whole time. Would have been very easy to set up an untimely demise on his part. Maybe I'm just too paranoid. But I don't think we should let Rhino off the bat just because they stopped playing chaotically and seem to have lots of information and connections. 10 hours ago, Sunburst Toucan said: [OOC: Put yourselves in the elim team's shoes and ask yourselves if you would waste this many night actions preventing a village flip. A village flip, which fundamentally gets the eliminators closer to their win condition every time. A WBG can be played, but not to this extent, because actions economy is real and the elim team cannot assume that at any given night, a village Mistborn will not roll steel and attack an eliminator, even if the coinshot is busy with V!Flamingo. They are better off using their resources on their own, hence E!Flamingo. However, I am curious as to why @Magenta Albatross and Hyena are not putting forward other reads or suspicions if they truly believe we are wasting time with Flamingo. I understand that Hyena has just subbed in but who do you think the eliminators are, Albatross?] You have a very valid point about wasting all the actions. That aspect of my (very admittedly crackpot) theory has been holding me back from espousing it even more strongly. Perhaps I just enjoy playing the part of devil's advocate too much. I find it fun to think of the craziest possible explanations for what could be really simple problems/solutions. As for my actual suspicions, I have had trouble keeping track of who's who. I think I like Hyena, if only because the only reason I can think of for an elim being as crazy as I have been in the thread is if they're trying to mimic my crazy theories, get me exed, then use my village flip for evidence of their own innocence. Hey, maybe- NO. No more crazy theories. Anyway. Got sidetracked. Where was I? Ah yeah, I kind of like Hyena. I think I trust Mouse for now, though I'm willing to reevaluate. They could be an elim caught in a sticky situation, but I don't think that's too likely. I don't like Scorpion, Rhino, or Chameleon. I like Weasel, and have solidly neutral/leaning village opinions of you, Toucan. Everyone else is in my null category because I can't remember anything in particular about anyone else. Sorry. 7 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said: If this were a situation where Flamingo is a spiked trying to survive as long as possible and do as much damage on the way out, why did they just roll over and barely post anything this cycle? Why aren't they setting up some kind of mess for after they flip red, or defending themselves, or trolling their heart out in one of the most troll-worthy situations imaginable? The behavior of Flamingo doesn't align with the headspace that the spiked would likely have to be in right now, if Flamingo were spiked and they were trying to make the most of it. While I do agree with a lot of the rest of your points from this post (and once again, part of my brain has hopped right on the crazy train with you), I do have a counter argument. Having been in a situation where my elim team's demise was near-inevitable--yet still having to play out the next 3 or however many cycles it was--being caught in a really tough bind can be super demoralizing. Especially when it's not really your fault, just bad luck with actions. Both your teams' and others'. Maybe it's because I've been in that situation before that I don't want this to be the case with this elim team. I guess I'm just trying to see how this could all be a master plan of theirs, instead of just a series of unfortunate steps that will cost them at least two elims. I guess we'll see tomorrow. Because I highly doubt we're getting another complete 180 exe like last time.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Weasel Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 While I understand your concerns about rhino, after some discussion in PMs Im just fine with what they're doing. I just... Yeah no they're not an elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 *scorp the orphan jumps onto a table waving a whiskey bottle and shrieking incoherently* oh my gosssssssh How long has this juice been out here it’s making my tongue tingly Flamingo hiding under table away from crowd, he looks very sad like he give up. Scorp remembers what it is like to be very sad, when Scorp’s parents died and he went to live with his auntie who was very smelly and had hundreds of cats and no one liked her and were always being mean to her and to Scorp. Scorp gives Flamingo some juice to make him feel better. Feels like the grownups are just talking in circles here. Everyone (mostly) agreeing to kill a bird who isn’t bothering to defend himself. I have my reasons but the lack of engagement is demoralizing. Kinda hope something exciting happens soon. If we didn’t kill flamingo, I guess I would be down to vote for lion or penguin. I don’t remember why we’re suspicious of lion to be honest, it just seems like it’s the cool thing to do to hate him, he did survive an execution so I guess that’s why we’re killing people good a reason as any I guess. ( I’ll be honest I don’t know why I keep hating on you penguin, I don’t have a rational reason, you’re just … there.) Rhino appears to have learned how to talk in full sentences, proof that ack-shelerated evolution is real. Maybe he’ll even start using tools next. i want more joosh I know I’ve been shrieking incoherently about killing flamingo but at this point it’s hard to feel … enthusiastic. My sense is that he doesn’t appear to really be having fun anymore, which makes me a bit sad. I know we all want to win, and killing flamingo at this point seems like the best way to win, but to me having fun is more important. That is why I am announcing a 50% discount on all juice purchases for the next 12 hours. Buy one get one free. I guarantee you, this slightly past but date juice is incredible. It will take all your pain, all your sorrow, and all of your pesky “being conscious” away. Trust *hiccup* me… it works. *Scorp the orphan givesh flamingo even more juice to help him have fun* oh my gosh you guys this joosh is incredible i think it cured my shtutter …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 i thought i was being obvious, not subtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 Never ended up getting around to putting a vote down so Flamingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 On 1/9/2023 at 1:00 AM, Onyx Flamingo said: I was saved the first time by my Pewter. So the elims have 2 mistborn/lurchers, or some villager really doesn't like the Coinshot. I do have to say, it feels pretty obvious to me that the elims would protect me the last two nights, assuming they were able. I was the obvious Coinshot target and the lack of my flip would continue to set exe discussion back. Assuming the Coinshot is village of course. Nothing has really changed on my front, so Flamingo. okay, since discussion has stagnated and you're sticking to your story instead of open wolfing, i'll attempt to engage with you for the rest of this day like you're village the best thing you can do right now is use what time you have to solve. every player has a unique perspective and it's very possible you can see things we can't, especially since a lot of us are currently distracted by our assumption that you must be evil after being saved twice (something i continue to believe, but i'm always willing to hear people out) so what're your suspicions? is there anyone who's pushed you or defended you that stands out, from your pov? same line of questioning for @Opal Lion. i suspect you, but that doesn't mean i will completely dismiss your opinions and rebuttals. i've seen you viewing thread a couple times since i proposed my croc/flamingo/lion team, but you never responded. what's on your mind? if you're village, who would you like to see flipped after flamingo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: i thought i was being obvious, not subtle [OOC: At least you’re honest about it. Doesn’t mean I like it any more than before.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Magenta Albatross said: [OOC: At least you’re honest about it. Doesn’t mean I like it any more than before.] that's fine maybe we'll scan you soon so we can bring you into the fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 It was clear to Avil that Agolac was either entirely too frustrated as an innocent resident for further engagement, or that he was simply guilty of the murders and wanted to keep information disclosure at a minimum. The latter seemed more likely, but the former was not impossible. Either way, his silence could easily be explained and Avil was not surprised. Fair warning that I have a 9-hour flight to catch later today and will likely have limited internet access thereafter. I will try to keep up with the game as best I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, Sunburst Toucan said: It was clear to Avil that Agolac was either entirely too frustrated as an innocent resident for further engagement, or that he was simply guilty of the murders and wanted to keep information disclosure at a minimum. The latter seemed more likely, but the former was not impossible. Either way, his silence could easily be explained and Avil was not surprised. Fair warning that I have a 9-hour flight to catch later today and will likely have limited internet access thereafter. I will try to keep up with the game as best I can. i saw you viewing their profile and anticipated this post. shoring up my village read of you more for echoing my thoughts lion's similar radio silence is notable. i've seen him viewing this thread multiple times + rereading D4, but still no defense or public solving attempts anyway, safe travels my friend o7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 I'm surprised that no one has gone through the votes since Crocodile has flipped evil. I have only had time for D1 and don't expect to have time for the rest. So if someone else wants to pick it up, it would be greatly appreciated. Trying to get some talking though most have gone silent, I say this as I'm ninja'd by Toucan and Rhino. D1: Complete VC Spoiler Iguana (3): Heron (1), Toucan (2), Dingo (2) Dingo (3): Swan (1), Weasel (1), Dragonfly (2) Penguin (2): Scorpion (1), Flamingo (1) Kangaroo (2): Hyena (2), Crocodile (4) Hyena (1): Chameleon (1), Tuatara (2), Meerkat (2) Scorpion (1): Elephant (1), Toucan (1) Mouse (1): Kangaroo (1), Crocodile (3) Dragonfly (1): Falcon (1) Heron (1): Meerkat (3) Flamingo (1): Tuatara (3) Tuatara (0): Crocodile (1), Hyena (1) Elephant (0): Tuatara (1) Albatross (0): Dragonfly (1) Swan (0): Meerkat (1) Rhino (0): Crocodile (2) Chameleon (0): Dingo (1) VC Spoiler Saffron Iguana (3): Sunburst Toucan, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo Melon Dingo (3): Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan, Indigo Weasel Sage Kangaroo (2): Mauve Crocodile, Charcoal Hyena Chartreuse Penguin (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Onyx Flamingo (1): Cream Tuatara Mint Heron (1): Salmon Meerkat Ivory Dragonfly (1): Emerald Falcon Charcoal Hyena (1): Pearl Chameleon Azure Mouse (1): Sage Kangaroo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) i did do a full reread today and uncovered a few interesting facts lion sussed croc multiple times for a comment about vote manip existing in the game, but lion also never voted him or pushed it further - i feel that was distancing, but am willing to reconsider if lion ever posts again also, on d3, flamingo avoided voting for lion, instead attempting to begin a cw on penguin then later moving to chameleon. they posted near eod when someone said flamingo was still on the table, and it came off to me as smug assurance of their survival. they didn't even seem bothered by the fact that lion was getting voted, nor did they ever comment on it, nor did they join it. that gives me the impression of flamingo being opportunistic. i haven't quite decided if that's an indication of their partnership (because flamingo knew both them and lion would survive and flamingo could get lurched) or that flamingo didnt want to join a bad wagon on a villager interested to hear others thoughts, tho it might be better speculating after this flip Edited January 10, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 [OK, took some time to take the player list and just establish some reads authentic insistence of mostly Rhino, although others asked as well. Here they are in order from village to null to elim: Hyena: I like how Hyena 2.0 has reacted and their overall tone. About equivalent with Toucan. Toucan: could be switched with Rhino, just strong v vibes. Rhino: I get odd e feelings about Rhino, but I don't think they can be elim here. So my gut says e, but I think they're a pretty strong v. Weasel: Similar to Rhino, kinda think they should be a slight e, but I don't think the Dingo kill comes from them, so I wouldn't trust this til the end of time, but it's good enough for now. Swan: Just getting some pretty good v feelings about Swan. Elephant: Slight null+, they just have a v imprint on my brain for some reason. Cham: Very slight null+, don't have any concrete reasons or even much gut to back it up. Falcon: Null Mouse: Really null Ostrich: Pure null, honestly didn't know they were playing until I grabbed the playerlist. Dragonfly: Gut null-. Can't say why, really. Penguin: gut e read Scorp: Slight e read, I feel like they're trying to do the traditional fly under the radar elim style, but are using low content roleplay posts to seem more active than they are. You may notice that I didn't include Flamingo. That's because I'm super mixed about them and don't know either way. I think there are pretty good cases for both e!Flamingo and v!Flamingo, but I also think we need a Flamingo flip. If only to not waste these last three turns.] Guy like chicken. Guy dink chicken taste gud. Guy gonna eat black chicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: You may notice that I didn't include Flamingo. Albatross? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Azure Mouse said: Albatross? [Oh, oops. Very slight v gut.] Guy kinda likie Albatross, he seems lika nice guy. But Guy no dink dere much reason for gud guy Albie Trossie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: Rhino: I get odd e feelings about Rhino, but I don't think they can be elim here. So my gut says e, but I think they're a pretty strong v. can you explain to me why you think I can't be an elim? i felt albatross raised a good point that i could have killed meerkas to assume his place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 Maybe because I've never actually seen an elim team pull that off (killing high active then one of the players suddenly becoming high active in their place), but I don't really know, your tone just gives me mixed signals, and I tend to get pinged when people strongly suspect me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Opal Lion said: Maybe because I've never actually seen an elim team pull that off (killing high active then one of the players suddenly becoming high active in their place), but I don't really know, your tone just gives me mixed signals, and I tend to get pinged when people strongly suspect me. Aman? LG81 iirc? Idk, that might not count because Aman subbed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, Opal Lion said: You may notice that I didn't include Flamingo. That's because I'm super mixed about them and don't know either way. I think there are pretty good cases for both e!Flamingo and v!Flamingo, but I also think we need a Flamingo flip. If only to not waste these last three turns. Where I'm at though is that those turns have already been wasted. In which case my question is: does getting a Flamingo flip actually un-waste them? Assuming Flamingo is spiked, what does that actually mean going forward? Assuming Flamingo is village, what does that actually mean going forward? If you feel strongly that we need a Flamingo flip, you should have at least one or two ideas in mind about how it would affect your reads, right? This question goes for everyone else too :P. If nothing else maybe figuring out how to use the Flamingo flip is something to do :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: shoring up my village read of you more for echoing my thoughts [OOC: Someone agreeing with you ≠ them being village. If everyone who agreed with us was village, then there would be no elims. Because everyone, through sheer probability, would have at least one person that agrees with them. And therefore they must be village, yeah? This point just does not make any sense to me. It's so easy to make a point like the one Toucan made, and I don't like how much credit you're giving them. Or how you're setting yourself up as a wannabe mayor. I'm not a fan of mayors, regardless of what side I am on. 3 hours ago, Opal Lion said: Guy kinda likie Albatross, he seems lika nice guy. But Guy no dink dere much reason for gud guy Albie Trossie. Do you want to explain why you don't think there's many reasons for me to be a "gud guy", as you put it? 3 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: can you explain to me why you think I can't be an elim? i felt albatross raised a good point that i could have killed meerkas to assume his place Hey. At least one of my ideas has been considered a good idea this game. 3 hours ago, Opal Lion said: Maybe because I've never actually seen an elim team pull that off (killing high active then one of the players suddenly becoming high active in their place), but I don't really know, your tone just gives me mixed signals, and I tend to get pinged when people strongly suspect me. Just because you personally haven't seen it happen doesn't mean it hasn't happened in the past. Or that this couldn't be the first time. Granted, me saying this is not evidence for my theory. But neither is your point evidence against my theory. 14 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said: Where I'm at though is that those turns have already been wasted. In which case my question is: does getting a Flamingo flip actually un-waste them? Assuming Flamingo is spiked, what does that actually mean going forward? Assuming Flamingo is village, what does that actually mean going forward? If you feel strongly that we need a Flamingo flip, you should have at least one or two ideas in mind about how it would affect your reads, right? This question goes for everyone else too :P. If nothing else maybe figuring out how to use the Flamingo flip is something to do :P. This is not directed at me, but if Flamingo flips village, Rhino and Lion will shoot up to my two top suspects. If Flamingo flips elim, then I'll gain a little more trust for Rhino, and will have to figure out who I suspect the most. Will probably return to Penguin, who I was reminded of being in an interesting place from the D1 votes (thank you Chameleon for the D1 VC stuff). Everyone else who was a viable exe option D1 has all ended up dead and village. Except for Penguin. That is a decent place to look for an elim, in my opinion. Would mean I'd have to reevaluate my opinion of Scorpion, if Penguin flips elim.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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