Anniversary Game 9/Anonymous Game 13: Rebuilding Tyrian Falls

[Charcoal Hyena]

1 minute ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Subjects of The Lord Ruler, we're playing the game wrong. We can only exe Smokers. If we don't exe Smokers, they refuse to die and we lose 

How very astute of you, good sir.

Unfortunately, one of us must propose a solution

Just now, Pearl Chameleon said:

I didn't know that Lion was a thug but for the past couple hours it has been rattling around my skull that Lion would survive the exe. I had no basis just paranoia, and why Paranoia why do you have to be right.

Like, based on his reactions?

Just a gut feeling?

[Indigo Weasel]

oh you've GOT to be kidding me

[Pearl Chameleon]

Just now, Charcoal Hyena said:

Just a gut feeling?

Pure 100% Gut.

[Coral Swan]

So where are the three Coinshots hiding so we can shoot Lion, Dragonfly, and Flamingo in one go? 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

…. c-c-can we kill l-lion AND f-flamingo?

[Indigo Weasel]

also I'm quite curious what crocodile found weird about my comments because that analysis is legitimately the most effort I've put into SE since the last time I ran a game. 

An extreme aside. By the end, I will be extremely curious to see if people know who I am. I'm deliberately playing in complete anonymity, and I really want to know if despite that people will still pick up on it. 

[Charcoal Hyena]

6 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Pure 100% Gut.

:I am a window, and with me a twin. Beauty is within me, though not what is seen when looking in. In hard times I flow, but in good I glow:

Edit:

Credit: someone else

Edited January 5, 2023 by Charcoal Hyena

[Mauve Crocodile]

1 minute ago, Indigo Weasel said:

also I'm quite curious what crocodile found weird about my comments because that analysis is legitimately the most effort I've put into SE since the last time I ran a game. 
 

You let Cham off really easily. And then abandoned the results of your data collection, which sunk cost fallacy would usually prevent. You then said Lion would be a good info flip, which is weak reasoning. These insights are courtesy of The Lord Ruler and his infinite wisdom!

[Pearl Chameleon]

3 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

:I am a window, and with me a twin. Beauty is within me, though not what is seen when looking in. In hard times I flow, but in good I glow:

Edit:

Credit: someone else

I have not heard of this someone else fellow, perhaps you could point me towards him so I could hand him a bottle of my strongest horneater white.

Going to sleep on this problem now, not much will come of it til I wake, but my mind as it winds down can come up with sometimes right ideas...rarely.

[Salmon Meerkat]

7 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

also I'm quite curious what crocodile found weird about my comments because that analysis is legitimately the most effort I've put into SE since the last time I ran a game. 

An extreme aside. By the end, I will be extremely curious to see if people know who I am. I'm deliberately playing in complete anonymity, and I really want to know if despite that people will still pick up on it. 

Steel, you are very anonymous.

[Indigo Weasel]

Just now, Mauve Crocodile said:

You let Cham off really easily. And then abandoned the results of your data collection, which sunk cost fallacy would usually prevent. You then said Lion would be a good info flip, which is weak reasoning. These insights are courtesy of The Lord Ruler and his infinite wisdom!

Abandoned my results? I explicitly voted Lion because of something I noticed in those results! That being that Lion had never bothered to vote. I can wait a turn to kill Penguin, particularly given that it seems that their IRL circumstances seem somewhat difficult. I'm not in a huge hurry. 
And I'll have you know I'm still updating my data collection! Doing it right now in fact. And yeah, I did let Cham off, but that's because my main point against them was that they weren't being very active, and I was looking in that area specifically for hiding elims. If they continue to be active and participate, that will give us additional information. So I figured it was worthwhile to switch trains. 

[Charcoal Hyena]

1 minute ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

I have not heard of this someone else fellow, perhaps you could point me towards him so I could hand him a bottle of my strongest horneater white.

Going to sleep on this problem now, not much will come of it til I wake, but my mind as it winds down can come up with sometimes right ideas...rarely.

It was a roundabout way of saying

Spoiler

:eyes:

 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

is it t-too late to g-go b-back to v-voting for F-flamingo?

*looks at the moon rising in the sky*

I g-guess I’m g-gonna go hide under my b-bed

[Sapphire Elephant]

Interesting, we had soother action on Chameleon too 

[Indigo Weasel]

17 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Steel, you are very anonymous.

Save your guesses for the end of the game tyvm

[Salmon Meerkat]

54 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Opal Lion (8): Fuchsia Ostrich, Plum Rhinoceros, Salmon Meerkat, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Indigo Weasel, Azure Mouse

Pearl Chameleon (3): Sapphire Elephant, Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo, Sunburst Toucan

Onyx Flamingo (2): Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon

Looking at the results, I'm actually surprised - I was running off Hael's near EoD count and had a near 4/4 in my head for Lion/Cham. That was a last minute pile-on. I'm trying to make sense of the train dynamics here.

Anyway, the reaction test deal I was sitting on. Evil Tineye message was a reaction test. I cannot swear hand in heart that the Tineye in question is Village but that is where my credences currently are. Here are the categories of responses, tagged for your data viewing pleasure:

Quote

Acknowledgement: <Kjell>
Ignore: <Mouse, Flamingo, Swan, Alb, Rhino>
No Response: <Lion>
Solve/ID: <Falcon, Weasel, Croc, Ele>

No Response is a distinctive tier because Lion lurked in the thread and did not respond, and then later engaged with the message. Distinctively, like me, Lion is the only player in question who suggested that the Tineye might be Village. Croc spent a distinctive amount of time paranoiding and giving me crack two Evil Tineye theories in PMs. Mouse, on prompting, thought it was funny. Weasel cursorily engaged with it, Ele and Falcon made some solving attempts. I am willing to believe Falcon, Croc, and Ele are Village at this juncture, which tells us something about the tier distribution.

I had TMI and I knew it was coming. If I'm right to believe the Tineye in question is Village, I'm not fond of Lion's response because it's distinctive, and then later matches mine, and my response is classic TMI! This is on top of Lion's consistent disengagement from the thread and refusal to vote, e.g. Lion susing Croc D2 but refusing to cast a vote, and Lion promising but never delivering an ISO and lurking.

The main factor I'm trying to make sense of is the train dynamics, especially since there was an eight vote train on Lion, though IDK.

Reaction test mention was delayed mostly because my brain was trying to sort out Dragonfly and Flamingo, I had hopes Lion would show up and improve my read, and also because I was unsure about divulging this without permission, but at the end when I had a gut V on Cham and thought the trains were close, felt it was worth at least throwing out there. I'm mentioning this now as well for thoughts, since Lion survived. It's just another thing about Lion that bugs me at this juncture.

Edited to add:

11 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Save your guesses for the end of the game tyvm

The wonderful concept of multi-tasking when we can do both that and finding Spiked at the same time

Edited January 5, 2023 by Salmon Meerkat

[Indigo Weasel]

53 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

My mom's not home, I'm the oldest kid at home, my dad's at a church meeting, and my three youngest siblings just vomited within the last hour and a half, two of them vomiting on the floor.

Wheeee. I want to cry.

That's rough buddy. 
Once you've got the vomit cleaned up and you've done something nice for yourself for dealing with that, would you please give me a response on my question from last turn? Namely, why did you find me village on turn 2? Because you are kinda my prime suspect at the moment just for that alone, although, now that Opal Lion survived, and my reread of Day 3 that I just finished did NOT improve my read of them at all, that might not necessarily be the case depending on what happens tonight. Either way, I'd appreciate an answer to that when you've got the time. 
Yeah my reread has made me double down on my reactions last turn. Rereading chameleon, particularly on day 3 which wasn't part of my initial analysis, gave me a strong V vibe. Lion, it's just made it worse. Given that the coinshot will probably be hard pressed to kill both Ostrich and Lion, I'm going to have to go against my earlier argument and say maybe the coinshot kills Lion. That would be nice, I think. Otherwise I'm going to be tempted Day 4 just to vote Lion again, and that's exceedingly boring. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

Well Lion, you better claim how you survived or we'll murder you and so forth.

[Sapphire Elephant]

For future reference, the voting for the end of cycle:

At 2 hours to go:
Vote Tally
(4) Lion: Crocodile, Meerkat, Rhino, Chameleon
(4) Chameleon: Toucan, Elephant, Weasel, Scorpion
(3) Flamingo: Swan, Mouse, Falcon
(1) Dragonfly: Hyena
(1) Penguin: Flamingo

120 min: (Lion: 5, Cham: 3, Flam: 3)  -  Weasel moves from Chameleon to Lion
60 min: (Lion: 5, Cham: 4, Flam: 3)  -  Flamingo moves from Penguin to Chameleon
35 min: (Lion: 6, Cham: 4, Flam: 2)  -  Mouse moves from Flamingo to Lion
28 min: (Lion: 7, Cham: 4, Flam: 2)  -  Ostrich votes on Lion
02 min: (Lion: 7, Cham: 5, Flam: 1)  -  Swan moves from Flamingo to Chameleon
01 min: (Lion: 8, Cham: 5, Flam: 1)  -  Hyena moves from Dragonfly to Lion
01 min: (Lion: 8, Cham: 4, Flam: 2)  -  Swan moves from Chameleon to Flamingo

[Opal Lion]

1 hour ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Subjects of The Lord Ruler, we're playing the game wrong. We can only exe Smokers. If we don't exe Smokers, they refuse to die and we lose 

At the risk of exposing my well-guarded identity, I just finished watching an excellent hockey game and intend to revel in that for a bit. 

I'd like to question Weasel's comments from that because they seemed weird. But I'll get to that later. You've been warned!

Wall post from me, wee. 

You have no idea how funny I found this despite not actually ever having to deal with Smoker hate. I say this because my identity is probably easy to tell at this point because I literally cannot change my playstyle. 

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

I didn't know that Lion was a thug but for the past couple hours it has been rattling around my skull that Lion would survive the exe. I had no basis just paranoia, and why Paranoia why do you have to be right.

Cham Seeker confirmed. 

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

So where are the three Coinshots hiding so we can shoot Lion, Dragonfly, and Flamingo in one go? 

Can't say I'm a fan of this plan. But I think the concept of three coinshots just makes me more worried at what in the world the elim team has to balance that rather than how good that would be for the village.

1 hour ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

Interesting, we had soother action on Chameleon too 

Apparently someone really wanted me dead. Which, understandable, but no thank you.

1 hour ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Anyway, the reaction test deal I was sitting on. Evil Tineye message was a reaction test. I cannot swear hand in heart that the Tineye in question is Village but that is where my credences currently are. Here are the categories of responses, tagged for your data viewing pleasure:

No Response is a distinctive tier because Lion lurked in the thread and did not respond, and then later engaged with the message. Distinctively, like me, Lion is the only player in question who suggested that the Tineye might be Village. Croc spent a distinctive amount of time paranoiding and giving me crack two Evil Tineye theories in PMs. Mouse, on prompting, thought it was funny. Weasel cursorily engaged with it, Ele and Falcon made some solving attempts. I am willing to believe Falcon, Croc, and Ele are Village at this juncture, which tells us something about the tier distribution.

I had TMI and I knew it was coming. If I'm right to believe the Tineye in question is Village, I'm not fond of Lion's response because it's distinctive, and then later matches mine, and my response is classic TMI! This is on top of Lion's consistent disengagement from the thread and refusal to vote, e.g. Lion susing Croc D2 but refusing to cast a vote, and Lion promising but never delivering an ISO and lurking.

The main factor I'm trying to make sense of is the train dynamics, especially since there was an eight vote train on Lion, though IDK.

Reaction test mention was delayed mostly because my brain was trying to sort out Dragonfly and Flamingo, I had hopes Lion would show up and improve my read, and also because I was unsure about divulging this without permission, but at the end when I had a gut V on Cham and thought the trains were close, felt it was worth at least throwing out there. I'm mentioning this now as well for thoughts, since Lion survived. It's just another thing about Lion that bugs me at this juncture.

I dislike the use of lurking as a case on me. I get far more reading time than I do posting time, it is only moments like now were I can engage properly with the comments I've read in the form of a wallpost. Otherwise I can't properly respond to analysis, which has been my big problem this game.

I also think this is odd as a reaction test. You claim that only TMI gives you a village read of the Tineye, but do you really think an elim posts that kind of message? I come from ToS, that's how my mind works at its core, and fake claiming is super common there. So I realize the actual difficulty of claiming your actions, especially when there is evidence you did something else.

26 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Well Lion, you better claim how you survived or we'll murder you and so forth.

I no survive. I no die. I eat food and all think I should be die. And I no likie murder.

[Magenta Albatross]

[OOC: Sorry guys. It’s been a hectic couple days. And this completely slipped my mind. I meant to get on and vote at some point. Just forgot. I read page 1, skipped pages 2/3, and skimmed page 4 of D3. I really don’t like the last minute shift to Lion. I think Lion is an e!Thug and Chameleon is some sort of elim power role they wanted to keep alive by wasting Lion’s Thug extra life (and hopefully two of our exes).]

[Pearl Chameleon]

6 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

[OOC: Sorry guys. It’s been a hectic couple days. And this completely slipped my mind. I meant to get on and vote at some point. Just forgot. I read page 1, skipped pages 2/3, and skimmed page 4 of D3. I really don’t like the last minute shift to Lion. I think Lion is an e!Thug and Chameleon is some sort of elim power role they wanted to keep alive by wasting Lion’s Thug extra life (and hopefully two of our exes).]

A roundabout way of saying you think I'm the elim Mistborn.

8 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Cham Seeker confirmed. 

10 hours ago, Coral Swan said:

...It was gut I can promise you that. Though that's just my words, believe them if you so choose to.

10 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

It was a roundabout way of saying

  Reveal hidden contents

:eyes:

 

My brain was tired then and couldn't puzzle it out , can see it now. But it's been pointed out so, hard not to see it like that.

[Sunburst Toucan]

Avil stared in horror as Guy walked off the execution platform in one piece. The Lion had always been unsettling, and Avil was growing increasingly certain of his culpability. There had been an overwhelming amount of townsfolk ready to condemn Guy for the gruesome crimes of the Spiked, and Avil could not shake the feeling that some of these accusers were privy to the knowledge that Guy would in fact evade the execution. Why, Guy himself had not come forward to defend his life.

[OOC: I severely doubt the purity of that train. Lion has been a commonly shared suspicion for a while now, so e!Lion’s teammates benefit more from soaking up their extra life in a bus rather than having them survive an inevitable Coinshot attack, where they would be bereft of any village cred. Minded to agree with Albatross in that the last minute Lion votes are suspicious more so if Chameleon is Spiked. Coinshot should ideally settle the Lion matter, or go for a Flamingo take 2.0. If Flamingo is a thug they will die this time, and if they are a Lurcher they cannot protect themselves again.
Of the non-Lion voters I’m wary of Scorpion’s vote for the complete 180 on Flamingo and voting alongside them after suspecting them for most of the turn. Attempting to disperse votes? Instinctive thought regarding the Weasel-Chameleon interaction is that they are not partnered. Will be looking at that again.]

Avil decided to head home early for the night. He would barricade himself in his room and sleep with one eye open, for the Spiked seemed to have a way with trailing the mists, seeping through tiny cracks and delivering vengeance on the town that had dared to rise above them.

[Salmon Meerkat]

Aurelien noticed that the mists seemed to have emerged a little earlier this evening, as though they had been drawn by...whatever Lion felt he was doing. One way or another, Aurelien wasn't too interested in bandying words. That was a bust. The point about Lion's anomalous reaction to the Tineye message was one thing, stacked like load-bearing columns. There was Lion's continued detachment from the matters of the village. He was content to linger, to watch, but not to lend his voice [OOC: to vote] to any matter at all. The sort of detachment you expected, perhaps, from a Spiked spy. He recalled Lion's comment on the first evening, that he'd been sorry to miss events that had led to the death of Taltin Keriell. That was something Aurelien didn't understand. If you weren't remotely interested in these matters, then what difference did your presence or absence make? [OOC: Wondering if comment about missing EoD is partly indicative. Lion's allergic to voting so missing EoD shouldn't matter to him.]

Anyway, Lion's survival boded nothing particularly well. Lion hadn't cared to defend himself, and the swing towards Lion at the end had come swiftly. He did not feel that Aylia meant ill with her switch to accusing Lion. He had, after all, seen Aylia's confusion firsthand. It was also a very unnecessary place to be, for someone to accuse at the very last instant. Even if you suspected or expected a set-up. But by this point, it was scarcely news that Aurelien thought Aylia was sincere in her desire to root out the Spiked.

Hastler said, "That one's trouble." He said it the same way he'd talked about the defenses of the Steelmongers, as though they were nothing more than an obstacle to be overcome. But that was the way Hastler thought: systematically. Step by step. Stand up and face up to it. There wasn't any trouble, to Hastler's mind, that you could not think your way out of, or be clever about.

For all he was probably preaching to the choir, Aurelien figured it was worth pointing out that Lion actively permitting or encouraging a wasted vote was an attitude that resonated more closely with the Spiked than that of a Villager. [OOC: Not really sure how to frame it in RP, guess this part's a bust as well. Long story short, encouraging the Village to waste a lynch on you if you are a Thug/Mistborn with Pewter isn't the end of the world but it's a suboptimal Village outcome and adds to Lion's ongoing anti-Village behaviour. Pretty ok with a Lion shot. And since I was on the train and couldn't answer - Flamingo, my point is that it is a legitimate play for power roles to hide in the sus pool, dodging the NK because Elims think they can be lynched. This becomes counterproductive when your own team starts looking at you within the CS kill pool, and the stumbling block I have is that you lurked and didn't consider it worth your while to get out of the kill pool, when that's detrimental to your team if you are Village. Really, my main issue with you is you give me both Village vibes and anti-Village reactive vibes in sum so it's just hard to get a coherent read.] That one bore watching.

Dealing with the threat of the Spiked had caused the rebuilding to slow down. Aurelien stared at the half-rebuilt hulk of the smithy in the dark, lights doused, and shook his head. No, he thought. There would be no rebuilding, no rising from the ashes, until the Spiked were found and stopped. Somehow. But there was no other alternative. No more market square. Not another. Not again. His hands curled into fists at his side, his mouth set in a firm, tight line of determination. That was how it was going to be.

But perhaps there were other avenues that weren't a bust. Working as he currently did with his suspicions of Lion, Aurelien found himself re-examining both Weasel and the orphan [OOC: Scorpion] and the role they'd played. There was WitLees, the bartender, as well: Aurelien felt that WitLees's heart was in the right place, and yet he didn't have anything solid to back that. The fact that Albatross felt so certain that WitLees was some greater evil that Lion had taken an execution to save only sat poorly with him: he struggled to comprehend how Albatross formulated that theory. Part of it, he supposed, was that Weasel and WitLees didn't really seem to be two Spiked interacting with each other, even when WitLees acknowledged he'd been absent of late and his heart hadn't been into things. (For what it was worth, Aurelien supposed that if pressed, he would've said that it didn't really seem in WitLees's character to act this way if Spiked, he got a sincere vibe off WitLees, and he felt that a Spiked WitLees didn't have reason to re-enter the game in the way he did the previous day, unless it was to save Rhino or Agolac. But then, Agolac'd subsequently had been fine with endangering WitLees, though WitLees didn't want to endanger Agolac, so there was an asymmetric relationship there.) [OOC: If forced to explain my gut at saberpoint, I think it's a combination of the fact that Cham feels sincere about being estranged and getting back into the game, that I don't really see this as being in E!Cham's meta even though it'll probably screw me over one game, and the fact that returning D2 to cast a really quick vote on Heron is counterproductive for E!Cham and draws him into the crosshairs even more unless his vote was needed to save Flamingo or Rhino (timing-wise.) I V!read Rhino, and if you theorise he's E/E with Flamingo, you then have to explain Flamingo's relative willingness to endanger Cham today, and Cham's relative unwillingness to vote Flamingo. This vote came eight hours to EoD which is a bit early for a protective vote. I don't really think this is the correct analysis but I think it's worth highlighting at the very least that E!Cham is a potential connection there.] 

Certainly, of the two that others had identified, Aurelien found himself looking more warily at Weasel. He felt that there was only so long you could say it wasn't in someone like Weasel to kill Reverse and then build an entire defense out of that. Not when so much of what Weasel did: his repeated broadcasting of his disinterest in the fate of Tyrian Falls, and his shift from accusing WitLees to Lion despite initially arguing the case against WitLees was more robust than that against Lion, which seemed somewhat ill-founded. Aurelien was concerned that there was something more sinister behind Weasel's refusal to accuse Lion, until the point at which the Spiked had indubitably considered (in a world where Lion was Evil), splitting tactics to be a bust and had gone for an outright bus instead.

Finding that the orphan [OOC: Scorpion], too, had made a crucial shift off of Lion to keep WitLees in contention. In a world where Lion was not Spiked (which Aurelien found unlikely, but you had to acknowledge it anyway), the move was probably a good one, though something about the accusation struck him as strange. In a world where Lion was Spiked, the orphan had moved off of Agolac to bring Cham back into contention again. That was also a little strange: in a world where Agolac was a hapless Village Mistborn, you'd've expected the orphan to take the opportunity to keep the trains equal, balancing Lion against Flamingo, rather than bringing WitLees into contention entirely. It was probably trivially true to say that the orphan was tied to both Agolac and WitLees, but that seemed to be the sort of conclusion Aurelien was staring at. Either way, his stand now was that he'd probably been a bit overhasty to say the optics of making a counterintuitive and apparently false accusation against Reneau the previous day meant the orphan was more likely to be a Villager. But he was not sure if losing his parents to the Spiked drove a youngling to join the Spiked. Something about becoming what you hated.

Donn Keihote was another person Aurelien had his eyes on. He didn't know whether it was right to say that the Spiked were hiding among the quiet ones in Tyrian Falls, but he did note that Keihote had an extremely indifferent reaction to coming close to death the first day. Dragonfly had more or less disappeared but had been looking in on events as well. Aurelien continued to have his misgivings about the both of them. At least, this was his stand.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

hi im here, hehehe

my school wifi doesn’t like the shard so i’m on mobile and really, really don’t feel like doing analysis on mobile

brb, backreading