Anniversary Game 9/Anonymous Game 13: Rebuilding Tyrian Falls

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

(Psst GMs who killed/attacked who)

or is it in the write up and mouse brain is very not good

I've also edited in that Flamingo was attacked by a Coinshot and Tuatara was killed by the Spiked.

[Mauve Crocodile]

Just now, Salmon Meerkat said:

Why are you so sure Flamingo was NKed?

Yeah ignore that, I didn't read the RP

Priase The Lord Ruler! 

[Salmon Meerkat]

Just now, Mauve Crocodile said:

Yeah ignore that, I didn't read the RP

Priase The Lord Ruler! 

I low key want to improve my Village read of you for this...

[Salmon Meerkat]

Opening up with Lion. 

From looks of it, since message count remains the same, our Spanish troll is basically the same as the Tineye who impersonated Rhino. Comfortable with the notion this looks Evil, though I guess a Village Tineye might have an incentive to impersonate. Not really keen on solving the puzzle - feels like a distraction, when we should be focused on the thread and solving the game.

[Coral Swan]

7 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

OK now Swan what're you doing mate. I don't understand why you're so convinced we're convinced you're village

I am PMing people and otherwise hitting my head on a brick wall. Doubly so because a Coinshot survival is one of the most irritating Night results, and hashing out the resulting Thug problem is literally zero fun. I am minded to vote Flamingo as an incentive to give some explanation for the survival, as well as somebody on whom I have had not-great reads. I am not convinced you are convinced that I am village, but I am convinced that it does not significantly matter what you think of me so long as you are searching for the Spiked and do not get in the way of my doing the same. I understand my absence from the thread has been more prolonged than it should be, but I do hope to fix that this cycle. 

[Emerald Falcon]

29 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

¿Dónde está la biblioteca?
Me llamo T-Bone
La araña discoteca

Discoteca, muñeca, la biblioteca
Es en bigote grande, perro, manteca

Manteca, bigote, gigante, pequeño
Cabeza es nieve
Cerveza es bueno

Buenos días, me gustas papas frías
Bigote de la cabra
Es Cameron Díaz

Yeah boy, boy
Yeah
What! It’s 2023
Word

This is from Community, so any of you know Community fans among us? 

 

[Onyx Flamingo]

"Ah yes, the tale of my survival. Well, you see, it all started when I was trying to remember why we don't go out in the mists at night. Naturally, the best way to try to recall something is to immerse yourself in it, so I went for a walk and began to ponder the mysteries of the universe." Agolac's voice took on a rambling tone as he expounded on his nightly journey.

Eventually, the story approached it's conclusion, though any potential listeners had long since walked away. "... and that's how I decided that Onidsen is Spiked. Though, you already knew I thought that yesterday, and we have some new information to work with, so consider it a potentially lethal placeholder."

"As for the Dragonfly issue that was brought up before, I need to think back on the details, but I think their D1 vote felt weird coming from a Spiked. Maybe that was someone else."

[Indigo Weasel]

Emerges from hole

sorry for disappearing, but in my defense I was basically spending all my extra time either reading SP1 or spending time with family. But I finished the book, and my family's winter break is finished, so that will no longer be an issue. 

Twas a dang good book tho

Anyway, that tineye message gets my hackles up. Dare us to find ya, huh? Cheeky little bugger, huh. 

We still haven't killed an elim, and with 23 people to start, we're looking at at least a 4, maybe 5 man team. I'd imagine the coinshot is village, as is usually done, and with 5 dead that leaves us at worst a 5-13 split ATM. Or 4-14. Which means we have slightly less than a 1/3 chance that any one person is an elim. Lovely math if I do say so myself, but for all my brains I still have no idea who to suspect. But, I guess finding someone cheeky enough to send that message would be a start. Given that this is an anonymous game that will be harder than usual, but well something tells me that most likely this tineye is not going to have a huge presence in thread. Could be wrong, but that's my gut instinct. Based on that, I'm going to filter people... Not right now. But soon. 

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Indigo Weasel
Title of Sp1

[Magenta Albatross]

[OOC: Taking note of the lack of actual explanation on Flamingo's survival from them. Though that is probably for the best. No matter what they are or how they survived, it's probably for the best to leave it ambiguous so the elims can't narrow things down. I'm giving slight village cred to Flamingo for this.]

[Plum Rhinoceros]

me horn says no village cred flamingo

Edited January 3, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Salmon Meerkat]

3 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

[OOC: Taking note of the lack of actual explanation on Flamingo's survival from them. Though that is probably for the best. No matter what they are or how they survived, it's probably for the best to leave it ambiguous so the elims can't narrow things down. I'm giving slight village cred to Flamingo for this.]

It's the opposite for me.

The Elims know if we are in an E!CS world. They know if they have a Lurcher. They know if they have Thugs. The fact there was a vigkill C1 already tells them there was at least one V!Mistborn if not V!Coinshot, assuming the secondary kill didn't come from them. We don't know any of that. We don't even know Flamingo's alignment. And V and E Coinshot imply very different things about the distro, including the likely existence of a Seeker.

Not inclined to look well on Flamingo for this.

Edited to add:

Like, think about this. In any world where he is V, the Elims are not gonna NK him. Why? Because as long as he's alive and his alignment is a ?, he's a problem for the Village to resolve. The only world in which they remotely consider going after him again is if they believe he is a Lurcher.

Likelihood? Low. Flamingo was lurking in the thread last Night, and his name was brought up only a few times in the Coinshot candidates. Moreover, he was lurking in the thread. So instead of posting to alleviate suspicions and not die, Lurcher!Flamingo decides that the correct move is to continue to lurk, and then self-protect. Instead of posting, giving people a better sense of his alignment, and then trying to block the NK.

So instead, we have Tuat, a consensus Village read and a fairly obvious kill target dead, and Flamingo still a ? today. (If Flamingo is Village for you, great. But I think there are some questions there.)

I don't see a world in which a V Lurcher protects Flamingo and not Tuat. Anyone paying attention should've gone for Tuat. I've explained the alignment problems associated with Flamingo self-protecting: that is, this isn't very Village behaviour. So the most obvious outcome is Thug. So what's gained from hiding this? The Elims start the game with better distro info than we do, and Flamingo was never going to be double-killed in a reasonable world. The only world in which he is a Lurcher is a world in which his behaviour looks hella sus and probably Evil.

All in all, I don't see why a Villager wouldn't want to clear the air, especially if that has knock-on effects on distro plausibility, cf. Beaglegate in the AG last year where on seeing drektonnes of Thugs and Lurchers, the Village very quickly understood something was hinky with the CS.

I also currently am comfortable with my Lion vote as I'm uncomfortable with the extent to which Lion has been lurking and reluctant to participate.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Salmon Meerkat

[Coral Swan]

Großer Herr und starker König, 

Liebster Heiland, o wie wenig

Achtest du der Erden Pracht! 

The Kings of this game might not care about the treasures of the earth, but I certainly treasure our limited time this Day, and leaving the thread dead for 12 hours won’t catch anyone. We have four votes cast. Everyone who has not voted, I urge you to find a suspicion and do so. I am content with my vote on Flamingo, and will post something longer tonight (and catch up on PM backlog…what have I done…).

Only other specific comment is that I would reiterate @Salmon Meerkat‘s excellent points about claiming after survival, and would again encourage Flamingo to be plain about why they are still alive. 

[Mauve Crocodile]

13 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Based on that, I'm going to filter people... Not right now. But soon. 

Swan Weasel The Tineye thing is intriguing but I want your exe candidates more

12 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Likelihood? Low. Flamingo was lurking in the thread last Night, and his name was brought up only a few times in the Coinshot candidates.

This is a stronger argument than a role-exe. Speaking of Flamingo, I wanted to see if there was any reaction to the pressure brought against them yesterday and it's kind of meh. 

My working assumption is that the vote manip off Falcon was elim misdirection. They needed one more Heron vote to be genuinely safe, so I’m giving them village credit for the closeness of the vote.

Looking at the D2 votes, I noticed an interesting early pileup of Dragonfly and Albatross on Weasel. (Read: not ee-e because of its stability)

Quote

 

Chameleon(1): Swan

Heron(1): Meerkat

Weasel(2): Dragonfly, Albatross

Elephant(1): Toucan

 

This remains fairly stable (and as the lead/tied lead) for a while, with the Heron CW coming from villager movement. (I’m reading Meerkat as village).

Eventually that becomes:

Quote

 

Chameleon(1): Swan

Heron(3): Scorpion, Chameleon, Meerkat

Weasel(2): Dragonfly, Albatross

Flamingo(3): Rhino, Heron, Tuatara

Rhino(2): Mouse, Toucan

Swan(1): Flamingo

 

It’s notable that Flamingo didn’t smack a vote onto Weasel or Heron, and instead went onto Swan. It’s bugging me that the Weasel vote was so stable. The wagons ebb and flow around it but no one ever adds to the Weasel train. If I take that as a sign of e!Weasel it also points to teammate!Flamingo.

The Rhino wagon that emerges looks like the product of villagers so I don’t think it’s consequential.

I’d also like to point a finger at Ostrich for casting a vanity vote in a situation where Heron’s death is fairly assured. Making a teammate’s 2 vote wagon into 3 is too risky, so they start one on what I think is a villager. Elephant pulls a similar move later in the round, which is also odd in a game where vote manip is a threat.

Quote

 

Chameleon(1): Swan

Heron(5): Scorpion, Chameleon, Meerkat, Croc, Mouse

Weasel(2): Dragonfly, Albatross

Flamingo(2): Heron, Hyena

Rhino(1): Toucan

Swan(1): Flamingo

Dragonfly(2): Tuatara, Rhino

Falcon(1): Ostrich

 

Anyway, if you guess we got any traction against the elims D2, especially Flamingo or Weasel, the Heron wagon would seem to be a good place to find elims as well. Scorpion and Chameleon stand out there. I’m less interested in the Falcon wagon because it’s unnecessary when v!Heron is gonna eat the exe. 

[Opal Lion]

15 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Opening up with Lion. 

From looks of it, since message count remains the same, our Spanish troll is basically the same as the Tineye who impersonated Rhino. Comfortable with the notion this looks Evil, though I guess a Village Tineye might have an incentive to impersonate. Not really keen on solving the puzzle - feels like a distraction, when we should be focused on the thread and solving the game.

Meanie.

[Not into puzzle solving myself, but I'm not inclined to believe the evilness of the Tineye. That feels like an odd move to make, if they ever want to claim they have to take credit for at least one of someone else's messages, which leaves room for a condemning counter claim. Of course you could just say that you posted that as a joke, and that the code said that or something, but I think elims would be less inclined to do so.]

13 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

It's the opposite for me.

The Elims know if we are in an E!CS world. They know if they have a Lurcher. They know if they have Thugs. The fact there was a vigkill C1 already tells them there was at least one V!Mistborn if not V!Coinshot, assuming the secondary kill didn't come from them. We don't know any of that. We don't even know Flamingo's alignment. And V and E Coinshot imply very different things about the distro, including the likely existence of a Seeker.

[Nothing you just said seems to have bearing on Flamingo claiming. I think they should, but am not sure how AI their lack of sharing is. There are conclusions elims could draw from silence just as well as a true claim.]

[Salmon Meerkat]

5 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Großer Herr und starker König, 

Liebster Heiland, o wie wenig

Achtest du der Erden Pracht! 

The Kings of this game might not care about the treasures of the earth, but I certainly treasure our limited time this Day, and leaving the thread dead for 12 hours won’t catch anyone. We have four votes cast. Everyone who has not voted, I urge you to find a suspicion and do so. I am content with my vote on Flamingo, and will post something longer tonight (and catch up on PM backlog…what have I done…).

Only other specific comment is that I would reiterate @Salmon Meerkat‘s excellent points about claiming after survival, and would again encourage Flamingo to be plain about why they are still alive. 

Yeah well about that...

What's your view on who Flamingo can be teamed with?

I ask because I was just taking a quick look at the C1 votes again (C2 pending when I have time - exam at 9.45PM tomorrow, rollover is at 10AM the day after, so I can at least do it as soon as I am absolved from the suffering) :

Quote

Saffron Iguana (3): Sunburst Toucan, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo
Melon Dingo (3): Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan, Indigo Weasel
Sage Kangaroo (2): Mauve Crocodile, Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant
Onyx Flamingo (1): Cream Tuatara
Mint Heron (1): Salmon Meerkat
Ivory Dragonfly (1): Emerald Falcon
Charcoal Hyena (1): Pearl Chameleon
Azure Mouse (1): Sage Kangaroo
No Vote (6): Azure Mouse, Opal Lion, Chartreuse Penguin, Plum Rhinoceros, Magenta Albatross, Fuchsia Ostrich

Iguana train is fairly pure. 

If we go one step further:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (3): Sunburst Toucan, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo
Melon Dingo (3): Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan, Indigo Weasel
Sage Kangaroo (2): Mauve Crocodile, Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant
Onyx Flamingo (1): Cream Tuatara
Mint Heron (1): Salmon Meerkat
Ivory Dragonfly (1): Emerald Falcon
Charcoal Hyena (1): Pearl Chameleon
Azure Mouse (1): Sage Kangaroo
No Vote (6): Azure Mouse, Opal Lion, Chartreuse Penguin, Plum Rhinoceros, Magenta Albatross, Fuchsia Ostrich

If I stick with a more stringent sense of my own Village credences (and let's be honest, I'm not sure if you deserve to be there actually, as this is purely based on a meta read) - then we have a problem IMO.

Where are the Elims?

I'm sus of Dragonfly and Lion as well but what is Dragonfly's vote then, an IKYK? I had a theory it's to save E!Penguin, but relooking at the timing, E!Flamingo's vote goes onto Penguin five hours after Rollovet:

Quote

Alb (1): Dragonfly
Hyena (2): Cham, Tuat
Swan (1): Meerkat
Scorp (1): Ele
Mouse (1): Sage
Rhino (1): Croc
Dingo (2): Swan, Weasel
Penguin (2): Scorp, Flamingo
Dragonfly (1): Falcon

CBA to colour in but Dingo flipped Village and I'm still willing to believe that Hyena is Village. Overall, I'm weakly inclined to believe Flamingo and Penguin are not E/E, given the immobility of the vote (continues through to endgame) and the circumstances of its occurrence. Why not get Penguin to self-pres? You look a lot less awful then.

I think this goes back to my comment Whenever ago, time blurs in my head due to exam revisions, that for a significant part of the cycle, <Mouse, Penguin, Hyena, Dingo, Iguana> were stable endgame trains, which reflects a significant amount of comfort with the trains despite potential volatility.

Anyway, the vote that looks more questionable to me on revisiting is actually Dragonfly's. Bolding because I'd be cool voting there too.

Dragonfly says several things about their EoD vote:

-They panicked
-They scanned the thread really quickly and misread Dingo

Quote

This was based on an inaccurate mobile skim of the thread. Sorry, Dingo :<

But this is a really weird mindset to me. If I'm a Villager, when do I panic at EoD?

When someone I Village read is about to be lynched.

No sign that Dragonfly Village read Iguana. And if Dragonfly Village read Iguana, then the vote would be simply phrased in terms of "I don't want Iguana to die." But instead, Dragonfly is in a rush to cause a tie and to cast a decisive vote for Dingo.

And I can't for the life of me figure out how this makes sense for V!Dragonfly's mindset.

To be clear, I don't think E!Dragonfly was trying to save anyone. I have a crack theory it was to save E!Penguin, but again, why not just get Penguin to self-pres? (I guess it's possible Penguin couldn't be around at EoD? I notice their last post D1 is at 0513hrs, when rollover is at 1000hrs.) If we're looking at this theory, there's Lion as well who wasn't around at EoD.

Flamingo and Dragonfly are both on at EoD, and it's surprising to me that with seven minutes to go, Flamingo doesn't retract. Unsure if this can point to Flamingo/Dragonfly not E/E?

Throwing this to the thread for thoughts. In summation, I don't think Dragonfly's D1 EoD quite makes sense to me.

7 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

[Nothing you just said seems to have bearing on Flamingo claiming. I think they should, but am not sure how AI their lack of sharing is. There are conclusions elims could draw from silence just as well as a true claim.]

If they don't, we don't know which world we're in. Elims begin the game with more information than us - the whole point is to close the information asymmetry before the Elims can close the numerical asmmetry. The Coinshot issue is the real biggie - again, Beaglegate. I'd argue refusal to help is minimally anti-Village, in which case there's no real reason to ascribe a strong read to you.

Waiting for direct game engagement and a vote before I'm keen on moving from Lion. 

[Sunburst Toucan]

Avil eyed Mouse and the Obli-gator as they expressed confusion regarding the causes of the attacks. Any Tyrian resident should be aware of the distinction methods; it had always been made clear as per the historical records, and Avil was not inclined to view the two men as unfamiliar with the Tyrian landscape. No, for they way that they spoke was a clear indication that they were not newcomers to this town. As such, Avil could not help but see the disorientation as slightly feigned. From what he'd heard from older residents, this confusion was commonly brought up in the past, so much so that it seemed slightly ridiculous now. 

Avil pulled up his notes from last night:

Quote

Heron(6): Scorpion, Chameleon, Meerkat, Croc, Mouse, Dragonfly

The odds of all Heron accusers being innocent were slim, so Avil decided on putting Mouse [Azure Mouse] under scrutiny, whom he had little reason to consider free of guilt. 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

S-sorry f-for l-leaving the th-thread s-so dead. I’ve b-been c-curled up in a cold dark a-alley lighting m-matchsticks f-for w-warmth and I-imagining the w-wonderful l-life I c-could have lived if my p-parents h-hadn’t been killed by the s-spiked.

Although I am a b-bit paranoid of wh-what Penguin is up to lately I d-do believe I w-will vote f-for Flamingo. I w-would like a n-non-sinister ex-explanation f-for his s-survival last night. Though I feel like at th-this p-point all ex-explanations feel s-sinister.

[Salmon Meerkat]

Let me sharpen the point. (Sorry exam sleep debt incoherence. It's just dominating my life right now :sob: )

I maintain that as a Villager, you only really panic at EoD if you think a Villager is about to be lynched. If you don't, or you suspect or have the trains as nulls, then you're either cool with the results or you're indifferent.

The first problem is that I don't see why Dragonfly should be emotionally invested in D1 EoD to the point of panic. Dragonfly's behaviour is not consistent with V!reading Iguana, and I think that if Dragonfly had, they would've just said so upfront when voting. They also said they misread Dingo when skimming on mobile.

I'm struggling to get into that mentality.

I slept at 8AM, the day I voted on Heron. I was struggling, @ing people in PMs, throwing a post out in the hopes someone else thinking about the issue could shed some light on it for me, and just trying to force my exhausted brain to stop thinking about SVM models and to make sense of Heron. I get that maybe I'm a bit extreme, but the point stands. Getting the vote right matters to me. I may no longer feel ML guilt the way I used to, but I don't like MLing Villagers anyway. 

The idea you would just skim om mobile and throw a vote down at EoD and also panic just doesn't make sense to me.

You panic if you're invested. If you're invested, why are you skimming? Where's the sense of care and the willingness to get things right? If you're invested, why didn't we see that earlier?

The things Dragonfly says don't hang well together.

(I'll note there are other points to be made against them, such as that their disinterest in thread discussion (cf. attempting to instigate discussion but not doing anything with it or carrying through), and the Weasel vote, which while I am sympathetic to, also suggests LHF. This potentially dovetails well with why Dingo was N1ed, and Dragonfly's late anchoring of the Heron train.)

<Lion, Flamingo, Dragonfly> looks like a decent pool to me at the moment, though I'm not sure it's self-consistent.

A problem for a Kjell who isn't oppressed by exams, I would say.

[Azure Mouse]

42 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

Avil eyed Mouse and the Obli-gator as they expressed confusion regarding the causes of the attacks. Any Tyrian resident should be aware of the distinction methods; it had always been made clear as per the historical records, and Avil was not inclined to view the two men as unfamiliar with the Tyrian landscape. No, for they way that they spoke was a clear indication that they were not newcomers to this town. As such, Avil could not help but see the disorientation as slightly feigned. From what he'd heard from older residents, this confusion was commonly brought up in the past, so much so that it seemed slightly ridiculous now. 

Avil pulled up his notes from last night:

(Hi, sorry, the distinction ask was a genuine question as someone who hasn't played in over a year. Is your whole reasoning on me because I was... confused by who shot who? Like, c'mon man, I should be able to ask questions. This is genuinely a little upsetting to me. Also, woman, lol).

Anyway, wondering the possibility of e!thug with a slightly lower elim distro, which would explain a further likelihood of why no elims have been found and Flamingo survived. Thus, Flamingo

Edited January 3, 2023 by Azure Mouse
typo

[Sunburst Toucan]

13 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

(Hi, sorry, the distinction ask was a genuine question as someone who hasn't played in over a year. Is your whole reasoning on me because I was... confused by who shot who? Like, c'mon man, I should be able to ask questions. This is genuinely a little upsetting to me. Also, woman, lol).

Anyway, wondering the possibility of e!thug with a slightly lower elim distro, which would explain a further likelihood of why no elims have been found and Flamingo survived. Thus, Flamingo

[OOC: My vote is based on Heron voters PoE. I will refer you to an earlier post of mine where I came to such conclusions (see summarized OOC comments). Your confusion regarding the attacks was merely a supporting factor; I assure you this is not a personal attack. Apologies if it came off that way.]

[Azure Mouse]

Just now, Sunburst Toucan said:

[OOC: My vote is based on Heron voters PoE. I will refer you to an earlier post of mine where I came to such conclusions (see summarized OOC comments). Your confusion regarding the attacks was merely a supporting factor; I assure you this is not a personal attack. Apologies if it came off that way.]

(Got it, thanks for clarification)

[Onyx Flamingo]

"Well, I guess if you really want to know how I survived, killing me is one way to potentially figure it out. I've got some errands to take care of, so it will be a few hours before I usefully contribute to this discussion of how best to murder me. Aurelien is wrong on this one, is all I've got to say for now."

[Mauve Crocodile]

Quote

Where are the Elims [D1]? -Meerkat

The top three wagons were against villagers (as they kindly let us know in part by killing Dingo). They could be anywhere, so I'm confused why you're asking this question. 

As for Dragonfly, you're making an argument I've erroneously made before about Mat, because he likes to lurk near rollover and will post a random comment because lurking but acknowledging it is slightly less suspicious than lurking and saying nothing. I also generally have a village read of people who make ties at rollover for the fun of it. So I'm hesitant about this take. 

1 hour ago, Azure Mouse said:

Anyway, wondering the possibility of e!thug with a slightly lower elim distro, which would explain a further likelihood of why no elims have been found and Flamingo survived. Thus, Flamingo

Why are this vote and a fancy watch similar? They're both role-exes. 

That joke needs workshopping, but I wanted to remind you that a villager with a protection role already flipped so it's a bad assumption to make that they're exclusively in the hands of the Spiked. Just like assuming The Lord Ruler is gone is a bad assumption. I'm sure he'll return any day now 

 

[Azure Mouse]

32 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Why are this vote and a fancy watch similar? They're both role-exes. 

That joke needs workshopping, but I wanted to remind you that a villager with a protection role already flipped so it's a bad assumption to make that they're exclusively in the hands of the Spiked. Just like assuming The Lord Ruler is gone is a bad assumption. I'm sure he'll return any day now 

Willing to make a vote change. This is to put pressure.

[Indigo Weasel]

A small defense of Flamingo. Not really regarding anything they've done, but I'd argue from a balance perspective, it's unlikely that there would be a thug on an elim team, unless it was made one person smaller. So either flamingo is village, or we're up against a 4 man team, if my estimates are correct. They could be wrong, of course. Now that I've thought about how many kills there are per turn, it's possible we could even be looking at a 6 man team, though if so they probably aren't role heavy at all. And, honestly that feels a little bit too big to me. I'm still staking my bet on 5, and I just don't see a thug being given to a 5 man team. If the coinshot feels really strongly about it, they can go ahead and blow another kill on Flamingo, but I think thread's efforts should be pointed elsewhere. As to where, yeah I have no idea. I guess the exes on villagers would be a good place to start.