Parshendi & Gemhearts

[Ethrien]

So on a recent reread of WoK's a small part stood out to me.

 

'Oh, I understand why we fight,' Kaladin said. 'But the Parshendi. Why do they fight?'

...

'They must have Soulcasters. They need them for the same reason we do. To make food'

'It sounds reasonable,' Kaladin said, hands still clasped behind his back, feet in a wide stance. Parade rest still felt natural to him. 'Just conjecture, but a reasonable one...'

 

So we know from the Eshonai interlude that the Parshendi are indeed using Gemhearts for food, as well as farming Rockbuds.

 

“We won,” Eshonai said, leaning back against the wall and folding her arms with a clink of Shardplate. “The gemheart is ours, we will continue to eat.”

 

So the Parshendi need the gemhearts to eat, this particularly strikes me as odd. The war on the Shattered plains has been going for six years at this point. In the book it states that the larger the gem the less likely it was to shatter when used for Soulcasting; the enormous gemhearts are described by Dalinar as offering near limitless potential. If the breaking of gems were the result of trying to Soulcast overly large items, and could be prevented by being reserved in what you attempt to Soulcast, then at this point the Parshendi would have six years of gemhearts and essentially unlimited stormlight. Therefore lets assume the breaking of a gem is a foregone conclusion, something that occurs randomly or as a result of cumulative damage from use. A single gemheart is still enough for a highprince to pay and feed his troops for months and since the primary value for gems (outside being an unforgeable currency) is Soulcasting it seems unlikely that a gemheart would sell for more than what the buyer could get back through Soulcasting.

 

Sadeas and Dalinar each committed over 7000 troops to the battle at the Tower, since this was just what they could muster at short notice it stands to reason each has at least 10000 troops total. If we assume that Sadeas upper estimate of 30000 Parshendi troops is accurate and given that not many Parshendi are spared warform then that leaves us with about 40000 mouths to feed. This means the Parshendi would only need around two or three gemhearts each month in order to feed their entire population. Towards the end of the book (ch59) Teft makes the comment that "with Sadeas and Kholin working together, runs happen nearly every day." With 5 days to a Roshar week and 10 weeks to a month, thats 50 days overall, if a run happens only every second day that is still 25 gemhearts a month.

 

In summary

1 Gemheart = At least 2 Months of food and wages for a single army

1 Army = 10000+Troops

Parshendi = 4 Armies worth (30000 Troops plus unknown but small number of Civilians)

Gemhearts/month the Parshendi need = 2 - 3

Total Gemhearts/month = >25 (Almost one a day * 50 Days to a Roshar Month

 

From this the Parshendi would only need to win less than 1/8th of the possible gemhearts each month. Yet Eshonai's interlude makes it seem they need each gemheart to continue to eat. We know that Great Shells do indeed pupate past the Tower and that these all go the the Parshendi, as they can get them out before the Alethi arrive (ch65). Yet the Parshendi never seem to hold back, they arrive first to the majority of platforms and still assault the Alethi when they arrive second. While this makes sense in terms of denying the Alethi armies resources, you would expect an army in the Parshendi's situation to be more reserved in their use of troops and it still fails to explain Eshonai's comment on needing the gemhearts to eat.

 

Possible Explanations:

1. Gemhearts sell for more than they Soulcast. If gemhearts are worth more when broken down into currency (unlikely) or when made into fabrials (possible) then the whole argument falls apart.

2. The Parshendi lose 90% of the battles they fight with the Alethi. Hmm yeah no, I think we can just keep moving.

3. The Parshendi number far greater than the Alethi's estimates. This seems a likely solution, we know they Alethi are surprised, when the Parshendi start to bring multiple forces to the field. By using smaller armies that are more closely matched to an individual highprince's army, the Parshendi have been trying to avoid pressuring the highprinces into working together.

4. The Parshendi are Soulcasting from Air. While checking to see if this had been mentioned before I came across a post claiming Air was harder to Soulcast than other substances. The Alethi can probably quarry nearby stone or even dirt to make their food; living in the middle of the Shattered Plains Soulcasting the dirt would reduce the Parshendi's living area. If Air is indeed harder to Soulcast, and the Parshendi are Soulcasting from it, this could be reducing their gems efficiency.

5. The Parshendi are selling their gemhearts. They don't actually have Soulcasters but are instead trading away the gemhearts to someone beyond the Shattered Plains. I don't think this is actually probable for a number of reasons but its still my favorite theory.

6. They need the gemhearts for something else as well as food.

[name_here]

I recall that somewhere it was confirmed that Gemhearts are distributed among all the gem types, so emeralds (used to soulcast food) make up only 10% of all Gemhearts.  If the Parshendi can't buy food using the others, then they'd need to score ten a month on average to get one emerald. That would seem to make the numbers work out. I'd also question Saedeas's count; the most likely source for the number is an estimate of total Parshendi numbers from the migration divided by the presumed number of noncombatants per soldier. An estimate of thirty thousand combat-effective soldiers would probably represent a minimum total population of 90,000, and that's assuming the population ratios reflect an army with logistical support on campaign. For an average population, even total mobilization probably means only 10% of them are soldiers. Since the Parshendi have Soulcasters, they don't need nearly as many people farming.

 

Granted, this would imply that their army is actually larger than the combined Alethi forces, but the Alethi soldiers fight in formation and have heavy cavalry, so as the size of a battle expands they become relatively more effective.

 

EDIT: Let's get some actual numbers in here. Okay, we're starting from an estimate of 30,000 soldiers. Assume the estimate includes two camp followers each, for 90,000 combat and support personnel from Saedeas's estimate. If we then assume that's ten percent of the total population, Saedeas's estimate corresponds to a total population of 900,000. Unfortunately, we have no basis for calculating how many of these are too young to fight; I'll wildly assume that two generations are of combat age and their population is approximately stable, so the generation too young to fight makes up about a third of their population (They probably have many more than two children per couple and a high childhood mortality rate; to keep the math easy I'm only counting ones surviving to adulthood; this probably cancels out the drop in population associated with the war). Let's assume 5% of the rest are maimed or too old to fight, leaving us with 575,000 fit people of fighting age. This is where things become complicated.

 

Okay, so the Parshendi can shift forms and have full gender equality, meaning that 575,000 makes up their entire possible recruitment pool. Normally, their technology level would imply most of those are farmers, but the Soulcasters change that. Let's mark 30% of the recruitment pool as farmers or not directly concerned with the military (who is in this 30% may change frequently), leaving us with 402,500 in "military" roles. However, some portion of those are in support roles. I'm not going lower than one camp follower per soldier, leaving us with 201,250 soldiers as an upper bound. The actual number is probably lower; I was very generous with some of those assumptions. While that's quite a lot more troops than the Alethi have, battles are much more complicated than simple numerical advantage. Breaking a shieldwall with an undisciplined frontal charge is extraordinarily difficult and the Alethi have become quite experienced at dealing with the Parshendi attempting to bypass them. Furthermore, lighteyes fight in heavy armor and often mounted while the Parshendi have no comparable force and lack a good counter to a frontal lance charge. Finally, the Alethi have a lot of Shardbearers while the Parshendi don't have all that many. Granted, the Shardbearers are of questionable relevance because they personally can't kill enough soldiers to decide the battle and the Parshendi don't really fight in formation so they aren't too badly disadvantaged by being disrupted. Properly employed, the Shardbearers could serve as a powerful mobile reserve and rush to reinforce a crumbling section of the line, but corralling a bunch of glory-obsessed, headstrong noblemen into a support role would be some trick.

Edited October 28, 2013 by name_here

[Rade]

Sorry that I don't know about Eshonai's interlude, but I'm going to assume that it's after the Way of Kings right now. It seems to me that if Dalinar/Sadeas have been taking most of the plateau runs and they won every time that they combined forces, Eshonai might be saying that they will eat because they finally got a gemheart after being denied them for a while. Also, with the Parshendi bringing about 20,000 forces to the Tower, I would say that Sadeas's estimate of how many troops they have is wrong. How did they get this estimate? Only sailing ships have ever been east of the Shattered Plains for the most part, and I bet that no Alethi scouts have gotten into the center (with the one bit about how the army has sent scouts, I bet that none have gotten out and returned), then those estimates might be completely inaccurate. For all they know, the Parshendi might have 50,000 combat ready soldiers and over 150,000 populace. (I doubt that it's anywhere near that high, but it makes a point.) Also, it doesn't matter how many troops they really have on the plateaus compared to the Alethi as they can only bring so many into combat at a time. Sure, they could surround them, but with scouts in the army they could see them coming from a long ways off, especially since we know that Dalinar certainly sets scouts to watch the other plateaus. 17th Sharder, you mentioned that Soulcasting from air is hard, but why don't they just soulcast from the dead...chasmfiends? Is that what they called them? I forget precisely what the creatures were, but if one of the 10 substances is Flesh (from the Ars Arcanum) then you would think that it would be easier to soulcast that. I think that your 6th theory, that they need gemhearts for something else is the most likely. If you go to Brandon Sanderson's page it says that the Parshendi try to summon the Voidbringers to aid them. My guess is that this would take a great number of gemhearts, as they can hold Stormlight, although I don't know for sure.

[Gloom]

Sadeas is likely estimating the numbers by gemhearts won, a decrease in raids against the Alethi side of the Plains, the number of troops committed to battle, and various other sources of military intelligence. He could be off on the number of soldiers by assuming a large number of non-combatants, but he'd have a good idea of the number of Parshendi if his intelligence is worth half what he pays them. The Alethi have been at war with the Parshedi for over five years. Guestimating your enemies strength shouldn't be that difficult since both forces have been encamped in the same locations, roughly, for the entirety of the campaign.

[Shardlet]

You would have to expect, though, that Dalinar makes all of his calculations based off of the same info and he is astounded by the arrival of the second Parshendi army.  He realized that many of his assumptions about the numbers are likely wrong.  He (and likely all of the other highprinces) had no idea that the Parshendi had the numbers to support a second army.

Edited October 28, 2013 by Shardlet

[name_here]

The Alethi haven't located the Parshendi encampment, so they don't have much to go on for calculating their numbers.

[Ethrien]

Shardlet not quite sure what you mean. Their troop size was estimated at 30000, with armies of about 10000 being sent of plateau runs. The Alethi estimates allow for a second army, the surprise is the change in tactics in bringing a second army, mimicking the Alethi. Dalinar is more surprised that they haven't been doing this from the start, the Parshendi are not limited by bridges like the Alethi, they could easily bring in and maneuver the larger force and have crushed the individual highprinces from the get go. I think its possible they have been avoiding this to discourage the individual highprinces from joining forces. From the Parshendi point of view, if their enemies don't want to work with each other that's wonderful; they're not going to mess that up by bringing in two armies to slaughter one highprince and give the remaining 9 warcamps a reason to work together.

 

name_here Thanks for reminding me about the distribution of gemhearts, if only 1/10 is actually a emerald then the Parshendi would need to compete for every single one in order to have any chance of making 2 gemhearts in a month.

 

I don't quite agree with you on the actual numbers of their civilian population though. This is a society capable of physically transforming any member into an Soldier. There is no reason for them not to keep the vast bulk of their population in Warform, other than the few truly incapable of fighting. There is evidence of this throughout Eshonai's interlude, they have a hall of art where they are trying to attract Creation Spren, it is staffed almost entirely by soldiers despite the fact they are the worst at art. When Eshonai refelects on the advantages of the different forms, Thin form is given as being the best at art however "Few could be spared for that form" If their civilian population really outnumberd the soldiers to such a degree it shouldn't be an issue finding a few dozen people willing to try painting instead of farming. Most likely the majority of the population sits in Warform and helps in domestic work when they're not needed for fighting, with only a few dedicated workers that could be on rotation, similar to a shore leave system.

Edited October 28, 2013 by Ethrien

[Gloom]

I don't quite agree with you on the actual numbers of their civilian population though. This is a society capable of physically transforming any member into an Soldier. There is no reason for them not to keep the vast bulk of their population in Warform, other than the few truly incapable of fighting. There is evidence of this throughout Eshonai's interlude, they have a hall of art where they are trying to attract Creation Spren, it is staffed almost entirely by soldiers despite the fact they are the worst at art. When Eshonai refelects on the advantages of the different forms, Thin form is given as being the best at art however "Few could be spared for that form" If their civilian population really outnumberd the soldiers to such a degree it shouldn't be an issue finding a few dozen people willing to try painting instead of farming. Most likely the majority of the population sits in Warform and helps in domestic work when they're not needed for fighting, with only a few dedicated workers that could be on rotation, similar to a shore leave system.

 

I agree with this. The Alethi may be estimating that the Parshendi have the same requirements for support personnel as they do. We know that they do not. This means they may be able to field two or three times as many soldiers as teh Alethi believe.

 

I did get the impression however that Eshonai was concerned about their numbers. After nearly six years of fighting, without the same ability to recuperate from losses as the Alethi, the Parshendi have to be hurting. The Alethi are constantly renewing their numbers, the Parshendi are constantly reducing in numbers. They are cut off. They are in trouble. This is why they are willing to risk Stormform.

[name_here]

I don't quite agree with you on the actual numbers of their civilian population though. This is a society capable of physically transforming any member into an Soldier. There is no reason for them not to keep the vast bulk of their population in Warform, other than the few truly incapable of fighting. There is evidence of this throughout Eshonai's interlude, they have a hall of art where they are trying to attract Creation Spren, it is staffed almost entirely by soldiers despite the fact they are the worst at art. When Eshonai refelects on the advantages of the different forms, Thin form is given as being the best at art however "Few could be spared for that form" If their civilian population really outnumberd the soldiers to such a degree it shouldn't be an issue finding a few dozen people willing to try painting instead of farming. Most likely the majority of the population sits in Warform and helps in domestic work when they're not needed for fighting, with only a few dedicated workers that could be on rotation, similar to a shore leave system.

 

Well, I'm using some pretty generous estimation techniques; the Alethi estimates probably account for Soulcasting to at least some degree. That said, lots of pre-industrial jobs are brutally labor-intensive, and the wildly unpredictable nature of Roshar seasons makes farming even worse in that regard because there wouldn't be a predictable slow period; thirty percent is much lower than historical rates. Also, for the purposes of this estimate it's not important for the military pool to have the same people in it at any given time. Having over 20% of the entire population (including children) as line soldiers is incredibly high as it is.

 

Now, the flaw with this estimate is that I'm working backwards from the estimated number of soldiers to get the civilian population without knowing the assumptions used to calculate the number of soldiers in the first place. On the low end, if Sadeas calculated the number of soldiers by treating them as a military force on campaign instead of an entire civilization, the total may be as low as 90,000. It's also plausible he used an estimate that corrected for the presence of children, which would bump up the total. Also, armies flatly need support personnel; equipment must be maintained or replaced, food distributed, wounds treated. The Parshendi must allocate some people to these tasks, although not necessarily as many as the Alethi; their capacity to change forms just means that support and combat personnel can easily switch roles, not that they don't need them. It gives them a greater capacity to absorb casualties but does not permit them to effectively field more soldiers. The support personnel might be able to fight quite well, like with US marines where everyone must be able to shoot a rifle, but if they fight instead of carrying out their tasks for all that long the army won't be fighting all that well.

[Natans]

I was under the impression that not all gemhearts are emeralds. We only have the description of kind of gem gained in the kings hunt, and by the context I pretty sure that the emerald wasn't the only kind of gem that could be gained.

So if I'm right and, let's say, only 1/10 (there is 10 gems) of the gemhearts are esmeralds by your calculation (25 gems month) the parshendi would get 2 or 3 esmeralds to use to soul cast they food.

 

An again by yours counts that would be barely sufficient to feed all the parshendis =)

 

Edit: Ninja'd very hard

Edited November 1, 2013 by Natans

[dungeonfood]

I can't say anything explicitly (due to the Steelhunt rules) but the epigraph in Kaladin Ch. 2 of WoR is relevant to this conversation. I'd recommend that anyone interested who hasn't yet completed the Shardhunt should give it a try and take a look.

Edited November 30, 2013 by dungeonfood

[Oudeis]

I had a ton of very smart, insightful things to say but you all said them before me. So I'm gonna just rant like a madman instead.

 

MAYBE PARSHENDI EAT GEMHEARTS!

[Swimmingly]

That's actually...not a terrible idea...I think