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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    @Drake Marshall How do you get from "Darkness couldn't have scanned me" to "Darkness is the Mistborn"? It seems like if Darkness was the Mistborn and scanned you, then he would have seen Brass, and thus not confirmed your role.
  2. Araris Valerian
    @Darkness_ Nutella was killed and flipped village. Also, he was confused about the elim win con D1, so I was already leaning village on him. Also, I'd wager that Drake was seeking Sart last night. I'm leaning towards agreeing with the idea that HH is the Mistborn. My second guess would be Darkness.
  3. Araris Valerian
    @Darkness_, your post reminds me somewhat of when we were elims together recently. Also, I'm going to move my vote back from Drake to Drought. I'm honestly surprised that there are as many votes on Drake as there are, I was just trying to generate some better discussion than "let's lynch Araris!" Okay, @Seonid, just saw your post. I've been waffling about Sart. On one hand, he started a lynch on an eliminator. However, that lynch shouldn't have been as helpful as it was, and since Ornstein was inactive, was an easy way for Sart to gain trust. So he's definitely on my radar. Also, his vote today isn't super helpful, so that makes me more suspicious of him. I would vote on Sart as an option. @Sart, what do you have to say about things? The thing about Drake mentioning the Unstable Mistborn is mostly NAI to me. As either Village or Eliminator, it directs all the other players towards the actual win condition. Both the Village and the Elims want the Mistborn dead. However, I am pretty sure that Drake is not the Mistborn himself.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Steeldancer, you think the elims had 4 players plus a rioter? That would be enough to practically win the game D1, since it would be a 6 vote swing, which was more than 1/3 of the starting players. I'd wager that there are only 2 left.
  5. Araris Valerian
    I'll be completely without internet access on the 2nd, so an extension means I would miss the night cycle (assuming I'm still alive). However, my role isn't that helpful, so I'm fine with an extension.
  6. Araris Valerian
    Well if you actually are village and do lynch me, then just be careful. Unfortunately there are a lot of people that aren't contributing right now. Seonid kinda hit the nail on the head; a large part of the reason I'm voting for you is that you are one of the only people that has said enough for me to form any sort of opinion, and I fully acknowledge that it's a stretch. I'm just worried because nobody seems to have a problem with lynching me this cycle. So if I flip village, you guys should consider either that the village is being led by an elim, or that the elims are lurking since we haven't locked onto them.
  7. Araris Valerian
    @Seonid my opinion is that there isn't really a good player response to inactivity. Last cycle the end result was useful for two reasons, but as I mentioned earlier that is due to the particular mechanics of this game and the result of the die roll. Also, asterion was not totally inactive, but present and choosing not to participate. So the two wagons weren't inactive versus active, they were lurker versus inactive. @Steeldancer, @ShaneysRus, I understand that you are suspicious of me. However, it isn't too helpful to leave your vote on me and have done with the discussion. What are your thoughts on players that weren't involved in the two wagons? Of the players that voted for Ornstein, who are you most suspicious of? If Drought and I were both dead, who would you be voting for? The following players haven't posted this cycle: @Straw, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Darkness_, @shanerockes, and @Aspen. You guys are nearly 1/2 of the living players. I'm going to withdraw from Drought now, since I think I've gotten my point across about him. And if I get lynched and flip village, I would prefer you guys lynch Drake rather than Drought. I think Drake might be trying to lead the village through a chain of lynches. He was the 3rd vote on Asterion, but then tried to distance himself from the result of the lynch. His post about dying in the night would be very safe to make as an elim (unless he got mistborned, I suppose). I think Nuttalla is village, and probably Steeldancer as well. My next suspicion would be Seonid.
  8. Araris Valerian
    @nutellaspren lynching inactives is unhelpful 9 times out of 10. An inactive player hasn't participated in discussion, and there is little reason for elims to defend an inactive teammate. This game is a weird case where we had two bandwagons, both people died, and there was an inactive elim on D1. Not to mention that we were forced to lynch someone or risk losing the game. All of that together means that the elims might have tried to defend their teammate, but as a general rule I agree with Drought that lynching inactives is a bad policy. I mean, an inactive elim still loses if they are the last player left, since they can't send in kills.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Well, I can't say much more than I did D1; my honest opinion is that lynching an inactive is an easy out from a lynch. I would have joined literally any bandwagon to lynch someone besides Asterion or any other inactive. @ShaneysRus, @Steeldancer: Could you two please elaborate? What about my posts was "a little bit off?" Where did this "sneaky feeling" come from? It seems to me that I'm the only player that was aware of the elim win condition. If I hadn't spoken up, the elims could have easily lynched Joe and won. Especially if Straw is village, since his vote would have made their job that much easier. @Droughtbringer My vote will go on Drought. Mostly because of the following post: What about this post does remotely anything to generate discussion? I was already active, had a vote placed, and publicly stated my intentions about possibly moving my vote to Steeldancer (to prevent a last minute bandwagon by the elims, since Steeldancer was my #1 suspect that also already had a vote on himself). There was no threat of me getting lynched last cycle, so I didn't even feel compelled to respond to this post back then. This post is faking an active role in discussion while not actually contributing anything useful, save for its content as being suspicious. And while I personally consider it largely NAI, Drought also was against lynching Ornstein both before and after the two wagons got going.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Just to play devil's advocate here (and to draw some of the attention away from myself), the elims could very easily have bussed their teammate, given his inactivity. Now, this isn't as likely as it normally would be, since I wouldn't bus an elim on my own team D1, I'd instead give a cycle or two and hope for them to come back. So I agree in principle with the analysis of people that voted on Asterion, but don't agree that we should lean village on the people that voted for Ornstein.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Wow. @A Joe in the Bush: With a 2 way tie, is there a 1/3 chance for both people to get lynched, and a 1/3 for each of individuals? Regardless, sorry to the eliminators that you had an inactive. At least you won't have any false hopes about him coming back later.
  12. Araris Valerian
    Well, I have to say that I'm opposed to the lynch on Ornstein. Killing an inactive is a cheap way to place a vote without any possible response. I agree with Sart. Drake. Asterion.
  13. Araris Valerian
    I guess I'll withdraw from Straw. My vote will go on Drake for now, although I'll switch to Steeldancer if necessary before cycle end.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Steeldancer. Okay guys, seriously, we should kill Straw. I don't want to lose this game to any combination of trolls and inactive players. We probably need 4 votes on somebody to be safe this cycle, although 5 would be better. I'd bet there are either 3 elims with a vote manipulation or 4 with no vote manipulation. If Straw is village, then a bandwagon by the elims would mean 5 village votes would be a 50% loss, which I doubt they would risk since the other 50% is a guaranteed win for us.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Um, maybe we should lynch Straw? Since the elim win condition is to lynch Joe and all. Edit: To that end, we definitely need to lynch somebody this cycle. There was a previous LG where we lost because we decided a no-lynch D1 and the elims lynched the captain last minute.
  16. Araris Valerian
    I'll switch from Drake to Steeldancer.
  17. Araris Valerian
    I'll start with a vote on Drake Marshall. None of the roles in this game are important enough to warrant skipping a D1 lynch.
  18. Araris Valerian
    I'll play as Aralis Penrod.
  19. Araris Valerian
    @Drake Marshall I agree that banning is an extreme measure, and only mentioned it because it seems like we might need to start considering extreme measures based on this and other games. I also like both of your suggestions, although since I've never GMed I don't know how the first one would change role distributions. Both of those sound like good approaches that encourage activity within the spirit of the game.
  20. Araris Valerian
    So it's impossible to be Zucchini now?
  21. Araris Valerian
    Well, I think the problem is serious enough to start temporarily banning people from games. Hopefully players care about being able to play in future games, and by going inactive you are threatening to ruin the experience for other players. It makes sense to me to penalize that with not being able to play the next game or two, except of course when real life stuff was the reason.
  22. Araris Valerian
    I wasn't using the spreadsheet much because I didn't have any idea about what to do with it until we actually killed an eliminator. I was planning on going from there and doing my analysis. I was just using the end of cycle vote spreads for my votes. I appreciated this format for a QF game, although I didn't realize that cycles were 48 hours until the game actually got going. I'm not sure where things went wrong, honestly, because I literally needed 5-10 minutes between 2 days to participate, maybe more if I wanted to change my vote multiple times. I don't think the activity level points to anything wrong with the game. I honestly think that this game shows that some of the players in our community aren't able to make the sort of commitment to consistency that these games take, regardless of the actual time involvement. It may be time to start having stricter inactivity penalties to see if that will help. I do appreciate you as a GM Wyrm, and hope that you will run more games!
  23. Araris Valerian
    Voting for Steeldancer.
  24. Araris Valerian
    Voting for Madagascar.
  25. Araris Valerian
    Voting for Straw.
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