Hoid Slayer

I didn’t play LG 107 I really doubt there’re only two elims in game with this many people The only way I see that happening is if the elims got some INSANE starting equipment He says, despite voting that way last cycle I do agree the vote on you by Jo was a little weird, but I wouldn’t stake too much on it

Shout out for taking a question about storing farts so seriously Also, omnipotent compounder Lift is not something I was expecting to ever think about

I have Listened to, too TPBM is a Tiresias hater

Lowkey a fire quote

That's not the same as analysis I pointed out the people that took time to break down the information and give a list of their reads All you did was agree with me; it's not a bad thing, especially for a new player who's getting a feel for the game (and I understand not having a lot of time to post), but an important distinction to make In fact, I'd appreciate it if you could give me more information instead of just piggybacking off what I said. What do YOU think? What have YOU noticed?

I’m somewhat concerned by the lack of activity today The only people who have made any analysis are me, Jo, and Araris. Where is everyone? @TwinStorm what do you think of what’s going on? I don’t want to exe an innocent, and I need you to prove yourself @Araris Valerian @Belandrius Ohhmar @The Unknown Hammerer @TwinStorm @CoderDrag0n8 @RoyalBeeMage @Hoid Slayer @A Jo in the Bush @STINK

Alright So here’s what I get from this NK: There were two blatant pools of targets for the elims to attack: The Masters [TwinStorm, TUH] and the active, experienced players [Araris, Jo]. I’ll throw myself in there as well, not because I’m experienced but because I am analyzing a lot. So we have a pool of five: [TwinStorm, TUH, Araris, Jo, me(Hoid)] Yet for some reason, the elims didn’t kill anyone in this pool. The main reason I see for an elim team with no members in this pool to not NK any of them is for the Theory of Unnatural Survival (a name I just came up with, basically that the reason high activity players don’t die is cause the elims are hiding among them). The elims could be baiting this, hoping we exe players in this pool; it would be an interesting gambit, but also risky. And it would take five cycles to exe everyone in there, cycles where elims have a risk of getting caught. Of course, they could use a combination of NKs as well, but then, why haven’t they already? I don’t know if my thought process here makes sense, but what I’m trying to say is there is likely at least one elim in that pool. Additionally, the fact that the elims haven’t targeted either mini-pool since Doc’s death, keeping them essentially the same size, implies to me that the elims are trying to hide in the largest pool possible. By killing either a Master or experienced player, the elims would be forced to reveal information about which one they are hiding in. So, in conclusion, there is at least one - maybe more - elims in [TwinStorm, TUH, Araris, and Jo]. I’ve taken myself out of the potential elims list for obvious reasons. I’d cap the amount of elims there at a tentative two, since any more and Doc’s death wouldn’t have been beneficial. Cross-referencing that with Araris’ analysis, which I agree with: Doesn’t give us much, other than that Jo and TUH are unlikely to be elim together, but Araris and TwinStorm very well could be. Comparing that with last cycle’s events and Jo’s analysis (couldn’t quote, and warning it’s absurdly long): First thing’s first, Araris leaving the train on me when I could’ve been set for death is v!leaning. The next thing I found interesting was how Coder and TwinStorm were both eager to vote TOW when Twin came under fire from Bee. This is an obvious move from Twin, but interesting from CD and making me lean towards them as potential e!allies. Although Bee’s switch to TOW is also intriguing. Regarding Jo’s worlds: I know e!e! and e!Hoid/v!Twin to be wrong, so that leaves us with the other two. I don’t really have time to analyze more (don’t know how my school bus took so long to get to school) but right now I’m really leaning towards TwinStorm as the best kill.

Huh Didn’t see THAT one coming

Shifter didn’t know what to think of Sozar’s logic. But he did find it amusing.

Shifter knew someone would die tonight. The chills of Braid’s death still rattled him. And the marks… those marks were all too familiar. He had thoughts on who might die; thoughts he would share tomorrow, when the kill was made. And an assassin hopefully beginning to reveal. Shifter couldn’t sleep with those thoughts in his head, so he left his quarters, and went on the deck to wait. On the deck, in the open air, everything seemed freer. Or perhaps the illusion was just better. On his way, he heard light footsteps heading down the corridor, and sidestepped them. He didn’t want company tonight.

*squeeze* Yeah, I’ve heard absolutely crazy stuff is going on in the states Won’t go further on that, though I can’t truly understand your situation; but I can send the best wishes your way And also? You mean everything to those kids Even if they don’t show it; I know I don’t always I don’t know how old they are, but if they’re old enough, they’ll understand They love you

Shifter breathed. It was a slow breath, taking in the scents, the wisps, the life. The sensations. And letting it all flow back out. Life was a cycle. A cycle Shifter had been condemned to from his birth. Once, he had thought it could be broken. That he could forge his own path. Passively, his hand went down to brush the black blade at his waist. A blade forever tainted by the blood it had shed. But the blood hadn't freed him. All it had left was new scars. And now, Shifter found himself on this ship, once again trapped in the cycle. Blood shed. Unable to escape. Well, it looks like I won't be meeting my post quota for this cycle unless I make a bunch of short RP posts. So consider this one of them. Jo, liking the analysis, but really don't have the time to make my own. I guess we'll see what happens tonight. And Araris... Shifter appreciates the coffee.

Just noticed “died from a panic attack” That‘s killing me

Daaaang Seems I missed an INSANE rollover Honestly, there's so much to break down here Twin's self-defense is justified I don't like Bee's actions... but they were to save me Elims laughing their heads off at us right now I need to sleep, recover, and then analyze 'Night, folks

Yeahhh Wishikk died far too young Alright, who's ready for Hoid's last minute analysis to appease Araris and escape the gallows? *crunches knuckles* Contrary to what I might have said earlier, I disagree with this Sure, poke votes aren't perfect; but do you have anything better? As several people have pointed out, the first day and night hardly gave us enough content to go off, and a heavy imbalance in participation ... Summary of the day so far: Penguin pokes Twin BelOh backs Penguin on Twin Araris votes TOW on tenuous logic I joke-poke Araris Jo votes Coder with very tenuous logic Short fight between Twin and Penguin over validity of poke-votes TOW votes Twin for defensiveness - understandable TOW bends easily to pressure, votes BelOh, quickly retracts and doesn't vote anyone else TUH shows up but doesn't really say much Stink votes me without reasoning I make an analysis post Jo makes a decently long analysis post that didn't really amount to anything (although I'm not really one to talk), gives VC Araris dislikes my post Jo votes me for some reason Araris votes me as well ... My reads: Penguin and CD I don't know what to think; they both act like they normally do, but I also said that about CD last game and he was elim. So I'm leaning neutral on both of these. Bonus points to CD for defending Twin's actions to TOW even when he disagreed with their intention. Araris... I don't know. I didn't like the early suggestion of Doc's enemies, mainly for the logic, but also who was targeted: the list included both Masters. To his credit, Araris did accuse TOW, but it's worth putting out there. Later Araris went after me, with reasoning that I understand but disagree with on a fundamental level. So maybe this is my own sense of self defense speaking, but I am slightly e!leaning Araris at the moment. Jo, I quite disliked the attack on Coder. The logic of Coder's disappointment seemed a little absurd, but I really don't know what Jo's playstyle usually is - although Araris implies he's a veteran. I appreciate the VC, but I am a little sus, particularly from the vote on me. Slightly e!leaning. TOW has been a little quiet, but pretty reasonable. Don't like how easily he folded to pressure on his TwinStorm vote, though. Slightly e!leaning. TUH hasn't done enough for a read. TwinStorm... a bit forceful, but seems noble. My gut tells me he is well-intentioned. Slightly v!leaning. Based on this VC, I'm going to keep my vote on TOW, but willing to potentially follow side train on Jo. Araris... I doubt I can get enough support for that now, and I don't want to make that mistake again. I would really like to here more from @Belandrius Ohhmar, @RoyalBeeMage, @The Unknown Hammerer, and @STINK

Idk about any epic battle, but you certainly killed Ekkar Loral I’m sorry, but there really isn’t anything I can do about this If I’m going to be honest, I don’t really have any e!reads I feel strong enough to condemn at the moment. If it seems I might die, I’ll see if I can put something quick together, but I can’t magically change my time A million thoughts raced through Shifter’s mind. Confusion. Unsureness. And simmering at the bottom of it all, a fear. A fear of the fate that would await him if this path continued. He had been complacent too long. His mind - his hands - had been busy. But now, the clock was ticking. It was time, at last, for the Mage Slayer to break his silence.

Ooooookay Reasoning, please? Why not Stink or Penguin?

POKE A POKE vote Still a solid lead when compared to near anyone else Of course, the elims might want us to think that Nope, you were killing me I mean... Like I said, I'm just too busy for a real analysis. In fact, I'm sorry, but I really won't have time to put together a heavy post tonight. I will say, however, that I don't like the current lead on TwinStorm (although I haven't read most of the day's thread). It seems to me like it arose from a mere poke vote, and has reigned pretty strong so far. There's no reason for the potential team of e!Twin to allow that. Stink strikes me as suspicious, but also somewhat conspicuous, which I have found elims rarely are. Same with CD and Penguin; they're odd, but nothing strikes me. So for now, I'm going to tenuously back a side train on TOW, and see what happens. No, I don't have specific evidence or reasoning for this. Attack me for that if you will. But I want to mix things up here a little.

Okay I want to preface this by saying I won’t be very active this week, until the weekend, which would be… start of Cycle 4? So I might actually still be alive by then Alright, that done, here we go: First off, Araris Valerian That was a joke I agree with people that this is a little weird, but he is new @Belandrius Ohhmar, what Penguin was doing, and a lot of people tend to do early in the game, is called a poor vote. Essentially, you prod someone with a light pressure in hopes that they’ll slip up in their reaction. The problem with poke votes is that first, they’re pretty easy for any good elim to dodge, since the pressure is minimal and most people don’t even get poke voted, leading to imbalanced data sets that can be interpreted wrong. Slightly on that note, poke votes often lead to tunneling, where a slight mistep early in the game can be over-analyzed and decide the course of the game. We really want to avoid that. So, poke votes are imperfect, but there really isn’t any much better way to get information in SE. You can try to analyze playstyles, but the problem there is that playstyles do change organically, and elims can just do their best to behave exactly the way they normally do. For example, if I were elim, I would make sure to react to everything exactly as I would as a villager, and there is nothing you could do about it. A final way to try to search for elims is by looking for reactions to specific trains or exes, but I have seen so many misexes sprouting out from that. So… that turned into a little of a depressive rant . That’s an interesting thought process. Personally, I wouldn’t go in that direction, for risk of tunneling. I do think it says some interesting things that Doc died, though. The main candidates to die last night, as I saw them, were Doc, you, Twin, and TUH, based off my knowledge of experience and the most powerful players. i find it interesting that neither of the Masters died. First off, I don’t think both Masters would be elim; that’d just be diabolical from Aman. But I do think, considering the lack of death, that there is a good chance one of them is. So, there is at least one villager and maybe one elim in [Twin, TUH]. Aaaand my bus is getting to school and I don’t want to lead you guys with nothing so, I promise, more is coming, I haven’t read through most of the thread yet.

What he said

Kinda blueish-green

... Well, you're pretty close with the hair. At least, a couple months ago. Recently, I've been taking better care of it, and it's curlier. But I can't really find any style that I like. And I actually grew up with longer hair - before I cut it in third grade, it was past my shoulders. Eyes aren't that aggressive. Hey, I'm Peruvian too! I am really white though Like, probably not really white for you guys, but like the palest person in my class I relate to all of this Brown hair and I'm decently short Getting taller though! After the break some of my friends were in shock at how much I grew Stronger side nooooooooo It is kinda freaky how good some of these guesses are Can you really get so much from vibes? Idk about personality, but I've always pictured you like your pfp

You’re decently short, with straight black hair and a round face And a grin You always have a grin You’re an owl I actually imagined you pretty much how other people did I’m kinda curious, what do people think I look like?

Knot a pretty sight indeed Well, at least I now get to do this: Araris Valerian

No you didn’t, cause I grabbed the roseite Also, as per the what I understand, I don’t think you can get a spore and use it the next turn. You need to go through the preparing period first, which means the earliest you could be protected is tomorrow