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Quintessential

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  1. Quintessential
    I'm sort of confused... if you're talking about the vote-manip on Danex? That was Danex. A vote was added to his count, not removed from Connie's, and he had the only Blade that can add votes. So it had to have been him; there were no elims involved in that, and the point was to kill Danex, not save Connie.
  2. Quintessential
    Yes, I think you're Schrödinger's cat and you were 50% WGGd and 50% saved by someone else. In all seriousness though, that is basically what my brain does to me all the time in these games. Every time I think I trust someone, there's this little voice that whispers all the reasons I maybe shouldn't. I have an unfortunate track record of listening to that voice when it's wrong and ignoring it when it's right. Oh, right, good point. I remember you did something like that (making a list of players and labeling the ones we shouldn't kill immediately) at the start of QF48. I'm just surprised that someone else thought to save you. But I guess that process of elimination does make it seem more likely the the elims killed specifically you, and someone else saved specifically you, if they were all thinking roughly along those lines, or considering that the elims would try to prove the Danex train was village. Of course, that probably means it wasn't. So... I know Matrim and I were on that train, but apart from that, who else?
  3. Quintessential
    Added, just in case Ash is one of them
  4. Quintessential
    Okay, so I've gone back and reread the first part of D1 (I didn't make it very far, because in order to force myself to focus I had to actually take notes on everything, which helped me think but is super slow : P). Anyway, I'd now like to revise my reads list slightly: - Me: Village, see above. - Connie: Mild village, see above. - Matrim: Still mild village, but I would like to add a caveat (of sorts). I've said already that I think WGG is unlikely, especially so early on, but it also seems unlikely that a random villager saved Matrim, or even that he would have saved himself, because as far as I can tell there wasn't a reason for the elims to kill him (unless he claimed to someone that he had a Blade and then protected himself with it, in which case I assume he would have said something about whom he suspected). Additionally, Matrim did get to see very clearly exactly how much chaos Reading's survival C1 of MR46 caused--it certainly didn't hurt the elims at first, since it distracted us from an Aman lynch--and elim!Matrim might have thought about harnessing that same confusion again. I still don't think it's likely, but having thought about it some more I figured I'd say this anyway. - Illwei: Village, see above. - STINK: Mild elim, see above. - Gears: Mild elim. I reread Gears' first post, and I noticed that he does acknowledge very briefly at the end that we should keep the Truthless alive, so he was aware of the consequences of the Truthless dying when he wrote that post, but he advocates for the Stone Shaman to claim and be lynched to prove it, and says that the Truthless could just claim Shaman to fulfill their win-con. It could have just been poorly thought out on his part, but that doesn't seem like Gears to me at all. So, mild elim for him. - Turtle: Null elim, see above. - SfS: Null, see above. - TJ: Null, see above. - Alv: Null elim, see above. - Books: Village. I had seen others reading them this way because of the one post they made back on D1. I hadn't thought much of it when I first read it, but rereading it now, and I 100% agree--Books pointed out a very good strat that the Stone Shaman could use to possibly identify elims, one that involves no claims or additional information on their part aside from the list they're given. This is just not something an elim would do. - Experience: Mild elim? I'm not super sure about this, because as I said I didn't get very far in my reread, but others have pointed out that their first post seemed a bit... non-post-ish? Like they were trying to not actually say anything? And they haven't been very active since then either. Obviously this is by no means a finalized list (I haven't even begun to look at voting histories) but for now those are my best guesses as to alignments. Edit: Wow I'm smart. I spent so long writing that post that I completely forgot to vote Gears. I apologize if I'm breaking some SE norm about not putting votes in edits--I forget if that's a thing or not... @Ookla Fell From The Sky
  5. Quintessential
    Well, clearly the solution is for every Honorblade Bearer to claim to both of you! XD
  6. Quintessential
    I'd still like some reasoning or quotes or something from D1 on that front, but whatever. I still read you as village--perhaps more so, since you being sus of me means you're not trying to pocket me. Also @Ookla Fell From The Sky could we get a VC?
  7. Quintessential
    What Eternum said lol (I originally wrote this post to respond to yours, but then Eternum got there first so... yeah). to add on to what I said before, we also don't know where Danex's Blade ended up. We do know that it could have gone to an elim, regardless of whether elims can start with Blades. Also, a misguided villager may have transferred their Blade to an elim, and a misguided Stone Shaman could be in the process of transferring a Blade they reclaimed to an elim right now. We just don't know.
  8. Quintessential
    The safest course of action is to assume the worst, and Ash refused to confirm or deny this point so I'm pretty sure that they can start with Honorblades. Might as well operate as if I knew at least one of them did.
  9. Quintessential
    Uhhh well it sure looks like you did? Did you mean all the blade holders should claim to you?
  10. Quintessential
    Well, because killing the Truthless allows the Stone Shaman to die, I'm pretty sure this is worse than a typical mislynch in some ways, even though it doesn't affect parity. Also, no one knew that Danex was Truthless. So, it effectively is a mislynch for the purposes of a vote analysis. Edit: Gravitation has nothing to do with votes @Ooklil' the Wei and since Honorblade holders can be elims, claiming to them is not a good idea for the Stone Shaman. Ideally they shouldn't have to claim at all, but if for some reason they need a mouthpiece, they should claim to someone they personally feel is trustworthy, regardless of whether that person has a Blade or is you or Matrim. Also, "honour" is the British spelling.
  11. Quintessential
    I don't have any solid elim reads, right now, but I can provide the reads list I've mentally composed for myself (which doesn't contain everyone, since a lot of people haven't posted enough or I haven't played with them enough to be able to read them): - Me: Village. Duh. - Connie: Mild village, for the reasons listed above and because gut-read. - Matrim: Mild village, because I doubt this was a WGG. - Illwei: Strong village, though admittedly this is mostly a gut-read and based on PM reasons. - STINK: Mild elim for general inactivity and non-contribution in the thread, and also general tone in PMs - Gears: Null or null elim. I don't have much of a read on him, since he hasn't posted much on the thread and I don't trust my reading of him in PMs. - Turtle: Null or null elim, for bare minimum activity--I don't remember who said it, but someone pointed out that that could be a very good elim strat. - SfS: Null or null village. I have no idea what to make of the claim/claim-retraction of having or not having a Blade? That was weird, but not elimmy weird as far as I can tell. - TJ: Essentially null. I need to go back and reread D1 and N1 more carefully, but since it's now not a weekend I haven't had time to do that yet. - Alv: Chaotic neutral null elim. I still don't like his suggestion of the tie, and I'd be more willing to read Connie as elim if Alv ever turned up elim, since that's really when votes started piling up on Danex. But I'm told that this is Alv's typical playstyle, I'm not super sus of him. First of all, Gravitation is the night action that allows you to learn someone else's target. Second of all, Kaladin's vote-manip ability is Adhesion, which removes a vote. However, the only vote-manip we saw was that someone added a vote to Danex. Only one blade can do that. So it must have been Danex, which makes perfect sense with his alignment.
  12. Quintessential
    In most cases there are a lot of possibilities, yeah... that's most of what makes the game hard. I'm sticking with my village read of Connie, though--I don't really think the scenarios in which she's elim are likely, as I said above.
  13. Quintessential
    The whole new train arose and drew attention because, as Matrim has pointed out, Danex got on the Connie train and then immediately got off again. Which, since he was Truthless, we now know was supposed to be sus on his part. Matrim then called him out for it and started the train. If you're suggesting Matrim/Connie e/e, then it could very well be that Matrim took advantage of Danex's sus behavior to save his teammate, but I personally don't think that WGG is likely, so I doubt this particular outcome. It would have been a Day action, not a Night one, because votes happen during the Day, and Kaladin (as I pointed out D1) only has one Day action: vote-manip. It's possible that Kaladin was asleep or inactive, but I find it unlikely that the elim's only vote-manip would do that. Of course, anything is possible at this point. Anything is possible always, since we have no alignment-scan roles. But I find it unlikely based on these arguments that Connie is elim. People came out to defend her halfway through the cycle because she wasn't actually that suspicious in the first place; it was the D1 vote, and the first couple of votes were merely because of a slight play-style change on her part. Since she's only played three games before that's not all that surprising. Also, you're entirely wrong that it might have been the elims that vote-maniped because there is only one blade that adds a vote and Danex had it. The elims physically could not have vote-manipped in the way that we saw happen. Again, it's possible that the elims didn't want to risk exposing one of their own D1 through a vote-manip, since they had no idea Danex was Truthless, but they also could easily have suggested that one of Connie's other defenders, or even Connie herself, or someone who was sus of Danex, vote-manipped if they'd removed a vote from her to protect her.
  14. Quintessential
    She survived the lynch because the Truthless used vote-manip to add a vote to his own count, and for no other reason. Since nothing else happened to the vote-count even though the elims have a vote-manip 'cause Kaladin, and couldn't have known that Danex would do what he did, I'm inclined to believe that Connie is village for the moment.
  15. Quintessential
    Because I'm village and because "why not" is a terrible reason to vote for someone after D1. Edit: actually I'd say it's just a lack of reason, which is exactly what we're trying to avoid.
  16. Quintessential
    Wait, but that's the village win-con!
  17. Quintessential
    wdym by that, stink?
  18. Quintessential
    I have written down on a piece of paper what each surge and each blade does. That helps a lot lol
  19. Quintessential
    Yes, Pailiah's Blade has Progression and Illumination. It's like the ultimate protection Blade lol Whyyyyy are we still saying it's sus to theorize elim strats? If we're not thinking about what the elims might do, or why they might have done something, we're really not getting much of anywhere.
  20. Quintessential
    Come on people, we're looking for Valid reasoning with a capital V!
  21. Quintessential
    That's certainly the idea
  22. Quintessential
    I feel like in a few years it'll be me saying that just because I've played a lot doesn't mean I'm good XD
  23. Quintessential
    Ah, the dreaded PM reasons have returned... The Alv vote was in retrospect a stupid idea, and almost as soon as I placed my vote I wished I could retract it, but I couldn't because I was at that point spending quality time with my family, who would not have taken it kindly if I left them for my forum-based social deduction game. I know it's not really an excuse, but Alv is one of the most, if not the most, experienced player(s) in this game, so I figured his strategy would be a good one? Again, stupid in retrospect, I know. "Reasons from D1" is not particularly specific....
  24. Quintessential
    Me as an elim vote? Uh... why? Last I checked you read me as village...
  25. Quintessential
    That's true. Also, @Ookla Fell From The Sky Can I ask you to confirm that it couldn't have been an RB? I don't want to go through that whole mess and confusion again...
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