Quintessential

so basically you write out who you suspect and if the elims immediately shoot you to death then you're probably right, right? that's how that works?

Well, yes and no. We technically have no confirmation that Lotus is good or bad, just that she's a Warder. We know nothing about Burnt, who many of us agreed seemed to be trying to fly under the radar. If we examine vote histories (which unfortunately I don't have the time to do) we might be able to figure something about about the two Gray Ajahs... and since it seems reasonable to accept that both Liranil and Dannex are village--or at least that they are who they say they are, because I wouldn't personally discount the idea of an elim Brown Ajah--we can use Dannex's scans to get more info about roles at least, which much help with mechanical solving in the future. But yeah, there aren't any super clear suspects. Unless @Ashbringer feels like nailing all the elims based solely on activity and who the elim kill was, like he did in MR47 Edit: well, my reasons for suspecting Gears haven't... technically gone away, but I must admit that they seem much weaker in retrospect than when I wrote out that post.

Dannex quickly switched his scan to Liranil after she claimed during C1. So he got the results back at the end of C1 as normal. Edit: @Dannex out of curiosity, who were you scanning before?

Dannex is the Brown Ajah.

Well, if the Gray Ajah are vil all that tells us is that two villagers don't want Dannex to die. That doesn't necessarily mean they're right about him. Edit: oh, I misread what you said. nvm. Well, or a Yellow Ajah happened to throw a protect on one of the kill targets. But that seems... decently unlikely.

So... you think Liranil is lying then? And Dannex? Because if Liranil is Green Ajah, then she's probably village. She said she attacked Reading, which she would have no reason to lie about if she were village. And Dannex said that Liranil is Green Ajah. Which he would have no reason to lie about if he were village. So by saying you think you were attacked by the Green Ajah, you're implying you suspect both of them. Edit: right, I suppose there could also be a second Green Ajah, but that seems unlikely.

Would you be willing to reveal who your Ajah is? Or... well, at the very least what kind of Ajah you're bonded to? Hmmm no maybe that's not a good idea... I feel like there's some way the elims could use that info though I can't think what it would be exactly... @Dannex I would also be willing to let you scan me, I suppose. My role isn't particularly important or useful, so I doubt it matters if it's revealed to the thread. @Breaker That's a Wounded Gazelle Gambit. Basically the elims attack one of their own that they know will be protected in order to hopefully let that person gain the trust of the village. Edit: ninja'd

@Liranil did you attack Connie or Reading? @Lotus I take it you're a Warder. Since iirc there's no other way to survive the exe. @Condensation I... hmmm I was going to ask how you survived but I guess maybe you shouldn't say--if you were Ajah and protected by your Warder then they can no longer successfully protect you without losing a life. @Breaker Connie isn't necessarily a Warder, there are other ways for her to have survived (since she was attacked, not voted). It appears that the vote-manippers really did not want Dannex to die--or didn't want someone who Dannex's voters were voting before to die. Since the votes moved around so much at the end, it may be... difficult to figure out which. Also seriously what is it with you people and ties??? Have we really learned nothing from MR47 C2 and LG72 C1-C3?

Which Warder? TJ or Araris? I don't think exeing Liranil is a good idea. Yes, it could be that she's an elim and trying to avoid being exed D1, but if so that should become obvious the second a Brown Ajah scans her. There's too much risk involved in exeing her now.

Null votes don't count towards the count on this site. She would have died if the votes had stayed the way they were.

That's because you've never played with me before! Pretty sure last game was just a trash-fire in general and I was on the side that won. Okay seriously do you guys just not sleep or something??? I'll... try to compose my thoughts on all this and post them, but I won't be able to go back and parse individual posts or do ISOs or anything because I simply don't have the time to focus that intently on this game for that long : P which is my fault for taking four AP classes but whatever. Right, my current reads are: James Brafin: fairly village; they've been very actively trying to solve the game, probably the one looking at things most seriously. Of course, from what I've gathered that's more normal on the site they come from, but still--I'm biased towards people who take things seriously which is very hypocritical since I don't. Dannex: also fairly village. I've played with Dannex when he was elim and when he was village. I wasn't sure yesterday, but now I am: this is village!Dannex. He's being much more active and drawn much more attention to himself than he did as elim in the MR, and what he's done in this game lines up with his playstyle in previous games where he was village (see MR46, LG72) almost to a tee. Does that mean exeing him wouldn't give us information? No, obviously not. But I don't think it's a good idea, especially with the Green Ajah softclaim in his last post. It's probably too late to reverse the course of that train, but I'm not adding to it. Connie: Okay, here's the thing... I think Connie's also village, or at least I don't read her as elim. Once again, this is based on previous games with her: I can recall multiple instances, in multiple games, of people sussing Connie for changing her C1 playstyle in noticeable ways, and every time she was village. Also, as an even newer player than Connie, I personally relate to wanting to change my playstyle based on the reasons I got misexed early, or almost misexed early, in previous games (QF49? yeah I guess I'm not allowed to doubt myself anymore. LG72? Apparently I just shouldn't say anything in PMs. etc.). So, being able to both put myself in her shoes and look at her past games, I'd read Connie as null village at the very least. Right... who's next... how about... Illwei: Null village. My first game I was elim, and I gut-read Illwei as elim even though I knew she wasn't. Since then, any time I read her as sus during the first cycle, I just figure she's village. I've always been right, though that's because I've never actually played an elim game with Illwei XD this isn't really a good reason to read her village, hence the null. I can't add any speculation as to what elim!Illwei would do because I've never seen it myself, but... yeah, for the moment she's village in my book. Subject to change if any reasoning to the contrary comes along. Ashbringer: Er... null? Never played an elim game with Ash either... and he seems mostly normal this game... but all he's done so far is post a (top-notch) RP and place a vote with no reasoning, which doesn't look so great tbh. Matrim's Dice: Null Elim. I can't exactly explain why I read him this way, probably because it's buried somewhere back in the previous 12 pages and I don't have time to look for it, but something about him seems off. Wish I could provide more than that... Anyway, as with Illwei, subject to change if I see any evidence to the contrary. Gears and Breaker: I'm writing these two together because all of my reasoning about them is a bit... intertwined, I suppose. Look, here's the thing; I don't know how many of you have noticed this or remember this, but MR47 was Breaker's first game, and I remember very clearly from that game that Breaker was friends with Gears, who is a more experienced player. Not only that, but Gears definitely gave Breaker like, pre-game advice and a general run-down of how the game works and maybe some advice on how to play or not to play. Since this is only Breaker's second game, and going off that dynamic between Breaker and Gears, I would guess that he at least ran the plan of claiming by Gears (whether they're actually a bonded pair or whether they're elims), or that it was Gears' idea. Which... this doesn't really seem like a vil!Gears thing to do? From my (extensive) interactions with Gears I can fairly accurately say that he likes to keep his cards close to his chest when he's village, whereas elim!Gears is much more likely to claim or false-claim (cough MR46 cough), just by virtue of not fearing an attack by doing so. So, heavy sus on Gears at this point. Breaker, though... I don't know about Breaker. The claiming thing (which I think was... not the best idea) does seem in line with what he did last game (last game he simply asked to die, while this game he's ramping it up and actually giving the elims reasons to kill him). Why Gears agreed to it I don't understand, but I don't think the plan itself is AI for Breaker. It... seems incredibly naive. Even if he believes Gears is village--even if Gears is village--it still puts something of a timer on Breaker's life. The elims will almost certainly attack him this cycle, knowing that either they'll hit him or they'll hit one of Gears' lives because Gears will be protecting him. Then, next cycle Breaker will probably ask for protection, so that cycle they'll target either Gears or someone else entirely. If Gears is elim, then probably someone else entirely. The following cycle, they attack Breaker again, which would kill vil!Gears and wouldn't affect elim!Gears at all, since he'd just... not protect. The alternative is that Breaker asks for protection from a Yellow Ajah every cycle, which ties up all the village Yellow Ajahs and may also compromise them--if the elims have a Blue Ajah, they can target Breaker and watch who protects him. So just... overall not a great idea for the village? I don't think that means Breaker is elim though, he seems... well he's not like he was last game but even last game he was saying he was never gonna play like that again. The fact that his playstyle is different doesn't set off alarm bells for me, and honestly it almost sets me at ease? Which it probably shouldn't because he stated before the start of the game that he would stop having a death wish though actually come to think of it I'm pretty sure he still has one. I know I'm missing Burnt and Liranil on this list but I've already spent like an hour and a half writing it and I didn't get any reads on them one way or the other, so... yeah, I'm just gonna leave it at this.

Meaning I know something about distribution because I'm an elim? What makes you say that? I know you're already going to answer this question with that wall-post but I wanted to ask it anyway

I mean, I... was more focused on staying alive and faking reads on other people than I was on reading my own teammates lol. I don't think Dannex is acting the way he did in MR47, but that's because in that game he was flying under the radar as much as possible until I bussed him. That definitely doesn't mean he's not elim this game, obviously.

Sheeping is jumping on trains, NAI is "not alignment indicative"

(typically we call them Connie and Devo, not Condensate and Devota XD) I mean, you can vote Dannex, it won't... people vote for far less than what you've got, especially D1 which maybe isn't a good thing and is probably the reason why the elims keep winning on this site, but heyyy at least none of us will judge you

This had sort of occurred to me too, I think... idk, I feel like the safest bet would probably be to exe them? Or at least watch them very carefully from then on.

I... well I didn't intend to give away which it was but: This one (go back to the original to see what I was actually referring to : P)

I was exaggerating for dramatic effect but yes, I mean 30 seconds.

Pffff I'm in this game! The logical conclusion is that I'm not working on homework anymore, so I can go from posting only once every five minutes to posting at a much more reasonable rate of every five seconds!

You don't automatically check every post for white text? Isn't that like... a thing that people do? Or is that just me...

Oh, cool, so now I don't have to feel as bad about the white text

Alright, alright but isn't that what you said about Mat during QF48 too?

shouldn't "condensation" be the verb used to describe being irrevocably pocketed by Mat? e.g. Yeah I was condensationed in LG86

I mean... why would it? It's one person's word against another, unless someone happened to be scanning at the time. It would be a late-game strategy, but it could work? I think?

Yes, I did mean the Green Ajah. My personal pet theory is that TJ gave the Green Ajah, who would be village, two Warders, and then made one of them an elim. It wouldn't be as unbalanced as it sounds since if the Warders were taking turns protecting, the elim one would just not protect during the cycle that the elims wanted to kill the Green Ajah--if they bothered to kill the Green Ajah at all, since as long as they had someone in contact with the Green Ajah, they could influence that person's decisions to kill villagers. I don't know how likely it actually is, but it was something I thought of and I think it'd certainly be interesting if TJ did that.