Quintessential
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I mean. I doubt elim!Burnt would want to lose her powers either? And if the elim team thought that they could get a misexe on Dannex or a misexe on Lotus for that, or if Lotus is also an elim, then it would make sense.
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Well presumably their plan was to ask for protection. Edit: @Illwei it feels like D1 because no one died to the vote D1, so we can't actually analyze people's votes.
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Yes, the other Brown would claim. If you're the (not outed) village Brown and you see that another Brown claim and you see and believe the arguments that there's one Brown of each alignment, and then people start saying "hey we should exe Lotus" when Lotus is your Warder, you realize that if you don't claim then the village could lose its only Brown. The fact that Burnt agreed to this means that she likely doesn't have another Warder, btw. (and I'm assuming she did because it would be super risky for Lotus to do this otherwise--Burnt would catch her in the lie).
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Only if you don't sleep! Or eat! let alone write scholarship essays : P senior year of high school sucks. Also, I've never actually played a game with a lovers mechanic, here or anywhere else. How... does that work exactly?
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(I started reading WoT a while back and got bored... rather quickly, but I think playing this game has restored my interest in the series XD so I'll eventually read it... after rereading all of the cosmere... it may be a while : P)
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Likely for balance (though I haven't read the books so I don't know how weird an idea it is). (and I've also never GMd or actually wrote a functional game so idk how balancing works either XD)
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@Burnt Spaghetti Please confirm. However I'm going to assume that Lotus is telling the truth, since @James Brafin the other possibility is that both are elims and that's a bit... tinfoily without further evidence. So, if we're assuming one elim and one village Brown Ajah (which admittedly may or may not be the case) that means one of the two is elim... and of course, the two Browns are both somewhat under suspicion right now, because obviously this couldn't be easy Er... idk I don't like either of them. I have no idea who to vote.
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Look at the VC again and tell me you still want it that spread out : P Yes, this is something I bring up wayyyy too often, probably because Illwei ends up suspected every game she's in. Edit: @James Brafin if Lotus is the village Warder of a PR that she believes is also village, she would want to keep herself alive because if she dies then the village PR loses their powers. Also, given what we've been discussing she probably would come to the conclusion that Dannex is elim, if through PMs she's more or less confirmed to herself that her Ajah is village. Of course, the other possibility is that Lotus (and possibly her Ajah) is/are elim. In which case this would also make sense.
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This is because sleep (I just woke up a few hours ago) and general exhaustion : P I'm currently experiencing a certain amount of burnout... I had forgotten how active QFs are, or rather I didn't know in the first place 'cause last time I played one, it was my first game so I spent the whole time lying low XD I've been reading most of what's happened as it's happened, but honestly I've either been too busy to respond or haven't had the energy. Well, or that Lotus is lying because she figured we wouldn't want to kill her if she were bonded to an important role, and Green has already said they're not bonded. But idk how likely that is. Edit: also it would be risky unless elim!Lotus is bonded to another elim, because at the point where she started lying about her bond the person she's bonded to might get suspicious... anyway, this is all tinfoil : P I don't think it's likely she's lying. I am guessing that's not the only way in which we have a very different meta than what you're used to XD and yeah, generally having multiple rolescanners isn't unheard of. I believe in my first game, also a QF, there was an elim one and a village one.
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You're not the only one who has all the rules memorized! XD
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No, other way around. Lone Ajahs are possible, but a lone Warder wouldn't make sense--they would just be a person who happens to have an extra life. Also, @Liranil now that I think about it I'm... actually not sure why we assumed there was only one Brown Ajah? Rolescanning is much less powerful when you can't share your findings in PMs or the elim doc--most QFs don't last very long, so each Brown Ajah is only going to get to scan about six people, max, and some of them may die after the Brown Ajah has scanned them anyway. Obviously having an outed Brown Ajah changes that somewhat, but I don't think that two village Brown Ajahs, or a village one and an elim one, would be OP.
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(er well I mean in Ash's defense he probably hasn't posted recently for no other reason than that he's asleep. Most of the last few pages has appeared overnight. but yes, the rest of that is fair).
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Hmmmm that's a good point, I hadn't thought of that. Then again, we know who the Green and (probably) Brown Ajahs are, so if we do decide to exe Lotus I doubt it would hurt us too much? Or, well, I guess it'd be bad to lose another Yellow Ajah... Also, somebody--I don't remember who--pointed out something that I thought was interesting: we didn't see any vote-manips on Lotus. Obviously that could be because votes were flying all over the place at the end of C1, and the two vote-manipped people happened to both land on Dannex, but if we set that aside for a minute it says something about Lotus: the elims didn't care if she was exed. Now, if she were an elim then the elims would know she'd survive that exe, but that'd be one life down for her. Especially if her Ajah was also elim, they would want to protect both her lives if they could rather than using one in the first cycle. Unless, that is Dannex was also an elim and they were more concerned with protecting him. So even in the case where Lotus is elim... I mean, it doesn't look so great for Dannex? Now, consider the other possibility: Lotus is villager (and probably not bonded to an elim Warder), and so the elims were like "sure, why not." They removed a vote from Dannex, either to protect a teammate or to sow confusion in the next round. That in and of itself isn't indicative of Dannex's alignment. However, keep in mind that Lotus wasn't even a viable exe option until the very end. Dannex had been consistently in the lead all cycle, tied first with Connie or Liranil and only at the very end with Lotus. And the arguments for voting Lotus off just... well, they were basically just gut. So Dannex is an exe target for the whole cycle, and every time one of the other trains falls away another picks back up, often with... not very much? reasoning behind it. That could just be coincidence, but it makes me think that maybe there's something more going on there... I'm not going to vote Dannex yet, because maybe there's something I've missed, and besides this isn't really enough to merit voting off our semi-confirmed alignment scanner. But this makes me uneasy about Dannex. Also, typically C2 would be spent parsing the information gained from the C1 exe, using the alignment of the dead person to figure out some of what was going on. This time no one was killed, so we can't actually do that. We won't be able to make sense of the votes C1 until one of those two people dies, and honestly I'm super skeptical of the Lotus train because it started from basically nothing and snowballed in the last half-hour of the cycle, and the only reason it picked up speed was "to keep Dannex from being exed". Anyway, @Dannex and @Liranil, who are you targeting this cycle? Have you decided yet?
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Hmmm no there were only, what, 19 pages of D1 material? I don't think any of us really feel like reading back through for that one specific thing. ....alright fine yes I still love you
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Well first of all this isn't a PM game and second of all heeeyyyyy just because it's true doesn't mean you can just say things like that! I'm hurt Also Ash how dare you call me a fluff-poster! she says in a fluff-post
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Sorry! My parents called me to eat dinner and I couldn't finish writing the post. I wanted to get the part that I'd written posted so the Shard wouldn't eat it : P Uhhh only I'm not quite sure what you mean by the bit you tagged me about... could you... maybe restate? I have a headache from a calc-based physics quiz so my current comprehension level is probably not fantastic Hmmm. That... okay that's actually a fair point... which I'm realizing I mentioned at the beginning of the cycle. I... forgot about that somehow. So... two people tried to save people--either Dannex or Lotus, probably, though it could also be Liranil or Connie if the person submitted the vote-manip and then immediately went inactive for the rest of the cycle. And... well that makes the argument for Dannex a lot... weaker... *glances back at the rapid tunneling I just did* sorry? oof. I swear I started this cycle out thinking you were at least solf-cleared... I blame the physics homework!
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Before the rollover chaos you were already the primary target, Dannex. Also, the whole "framing" idea only works if it's a situation where elim!you looked like you needed saving, and could be saved. Removing a vote from you when you had a few votes but not enough to die doesn't really... make sense unless you're elim and your elim teammate wanted to make sure you weren't voted off in the worst case. It is possible that both Grays are village, I suppose--or that there are more than two Grays. But at that point we start to enter into the territory of the tinfoil, and I'm not really convinced, since the elims typically have at least one vote-manip and the broad agreement so far is that that's the case here. Also, you were a pretty strong supporter of that idea of the distribution yourself, iirc--even after the vote-manips showed up. So I find the sudden shift in opinion a bit odd. Edit: @Lotus There are... a lot of flaws with that logic. If it was two Black Ajah Greys, which seems unlikely, then they probably wouldn't both take votes off of Dannex. One of them would, and the other would either change a null vote to voting you (or whoever was tied with Dannex) or just not use the ability at all. Both removing is just... kind of really, blaringly obvious : P If, as we've been assuming, one is elim and one is village, that still tells us quite a bit because neither one would have been aware of the actions of the other. The fact that a villager would want to save Dannex isn't super surprising, since there were some people who argued against exeing him. What's interesting is that an elim removed a vote from Dannex while unaware that someone else was doing the same. Elims don't just randomly toss out vote-manips--they know everyone's alignment, so if an elim removed a vote from Dannex then they did it for a reason. If the two Grays were village, that tells us exactly nothing about Dannex. The only thing it tells us is that there were two villagers with both the will and the means to try to save Dannex, which could be equally true of elim!Dannex and village!Dannex. @Illwei Correct, that's exactly what I was doing. Earlier in that post I state the reasons for which I didn't think the two current candidates, Connie and Dannex, were elim (because back then, Dannex was tied or nearly tied with Connie). The Lotus train emerged rather suddenly towards the end of the cycle--I don't think I was actually on when the majority of the votes on her were placed because I was in a class for the last 45 minutes of C1. And honestly, even if I had been on I don't think I'd have voted for either of them--the votes at the last minute were so chaotic that in trying to break a tie I could easily have ended up causing one instead. Now, I have more to base my opinion of Dannex on than just what I've seen of him in past games, which is fine for D1 but after that it's best to just focus on the game at hand, as I believe a couple of people already said.
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Uhhh my point is we were already voting him out? If they wanted us to do that, all they had to do was sit back and watch, as far as they knew.
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Er... I have a question for the people who are debating whether Dannex was framed. Why would the elims try to frame him for this cycle's exe when he was already a target for the exe last cycle? Like, why would they remove him from harm's way one cycle if their overall intent was for him to be exed? The elims almost certainly didn't know that the village vote-manipper was going to remove a vote from Dannex, so if they wanted Dannex to be exed they would have just left well enough alone. If it ain't broke, don't fix it, amirite? I actually can't believe I didn't notice this earlier because this is the kind of thing I usually look for with vote-manips. Assuming that one of the vote-manips on Dannex was elim (which might not be the case but probably is), that means Dannex is elim too, right?
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That would be the implication of referring to her as "treasured Illwei", yeah XD
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Warders have two lives, thus they are passively protected from the exe, but their ability does not protect their Ajah from the exe. Edit: Apart from that, I'm reading Archer's post as village. A single long analysis post does not a villager make, but Archer has definitely put a lot of effort into this one and he makes some very good points. Also, yeah, I'm... somewhat doubting my suspicion of Gears in retrospect--it still seems uncharacteristic of him, but tbh it seems uncharacteristic of elim!Gears to claim C1 without being pressured by the exe, not just village!Gears, which I wasn't really considering when I voted him. That being said, I'm now somewhat back to the drawing board since my read of Matrim, while not helped by his insistence on Connie being a WGG, was based on nothing but gut to begin with, so I'm not comfortable voting him. And everyone else who has posted enough for me to have a read on them, I read as village.
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Okay, okay XD "according to what Illwei has said and what I've seen in my own games, I think WGGs in general are not a common occurrence." Happy now?
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Yes, I know. I was specifically considering the case in which it was, and then looking at the different possibilities for what that would mean about Connie--since Matrim seemed to assume that Connie must have a Warder if it's a WGG. I... wasn't gonna call WGGs rare in my post since I haven't played many forum-mafia games and forum-mafia is the only mafia I've played whether they were mechanically possible (edit: also they got brought up disproportionately often in the games I've played oof). But yeah, I'll take you're word for it and add on to what I said that WGGs are not common occurrences! and therefore we shouldn't be voting off Connie just-in-case-it-was-a-WGG. We need more of a reason than that.
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Which part? If you mean the-reasons-that-the-elims-killed-Connie, those were meant as examples, not "these are the only things that could have happened". And... I wouldn't exactly call WGG not tinfoily that was kinda my point
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I mean, there are a couple of other possibilities for how elim!Connie could have survived. If she is an elim Ajah and has a Warder, then regardless of whether that Warder is village she could have convinced them to protect her cycle 1, "just in case." Obviously she could also be a Warder herself, giving her a passive extra life that her teammates decided to exploit. Thirdly, and independently of the first two cases, there could be an elim Yellow Ajah, who protected Connie so that they could WGG her without her losing a life or her Warder losing the ability to protect without getting hit. I... don't know how likely Connie being WGG is, though. Mostly because in both MR46 and LG72, the general village looked at people surviving an attack and at least brought up the possibility of a WGG--and in one of the games it was pursued extensively. Unless none of the elims have played recently, I'd think they'd probably realize that WGG is a risky scenario, especially with someone that some people already suspected. I don't really buy the logic that because the kill doesn't make sense it must have been a WGG--the elims may have been trying to confuse us, they may have had some extra knowledge of Connie that we don't (if she's bonded to an elim for example), they may have been planning to kill Lotus or Dannex and then had to switch last-minute because it looked like one of them would die to the exe. The attack isn't really AI as pertains to Connie, and I don't think we should treat it as a reason to vote her or trust her until we have more information about the situation.
