Gears

Kingpins get a discount on contracts. Adjudicators make it difficult to lynch people, forcing them to resort to purchasing assassins. An adjudicator makes an elim immune to the lynch. Is it such a stretch of logic that it would replace an elim? Now that there is significant support for a Lotus lynch, I will once again throw my support behind that avenue of attack. While this may seem like flip-flopping on my part [and it is, don't get me wrong], a Lotus lynch is far superior to an unconfirmable gambit that might work.

Were you not persecuting me earlier for my handling of the Lotus case? I do still think that Lotus should die, but the King Iadon strategy handles the problem well enough to allow it, though I would prefer to lynch Lotus. I simply do not wish to tunnel on a player/strategy/style as I know this is one of my major flaws [see LG67]. I was unaware that anyone agreed with my thought process and thus thought the Lotus lynch was a lost cause. If you are willing to support it, you should have spoken up earlier. I would have been far more confident in my convictions if I felt that I had an ally. I will reserve my vote for a while longer and reread the thread to redraw conclusions.

Your strategy is acceptable. It depends on many unconfirmable factors, but it will suffice. Lotus, I release you. I personally don't like poke voting either. Just tag the person and be done with it. I know this strategy is probably awful. It will take more games to convince the meta that claiming elim is NAI. However, it seems to be working, since many players have accepted it as a part of my playstyle. There is a risk of it becoming synonymous with my villagerness. Perhaps I should add a random element to my claims. 75% of the time, I'll claim elim. The rest, I won't claim at all. This requires some thought... Most of the votes on me are actually because of my mishandling of the Lotus case, which I find entirely justified. I shall withhold my vote until a better target reveals itself. If I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I will vote in the interests of self-preservation. [Wow, I was ninja'd a lot. Perhaps many of my statements were invalidated. Perhaps not. I am going to hit post and see what carnage has been wrought.]

According to the rules, a majority vote occurring will get us PMs. Not specifically Lotus, but if a lynch occurs. 1: I voted Lotus initially because Adjudicator is nearly useless for a villager, elim!adjudicators are very powerful, we need a lynch for PMs, and no other person was a good target. [Votes thus far were pokes or on me.] As I have stated repeatedly, if a better target reveals itself, I would be more than willing to switch off. However, it is D1, so any and all votes will be for flimsy reasoning. We know Lotus has a role because they claimed and I cannot think of a reason why they would be lying. 2: I kept the vote there because there were no other lynch targets. Sidenote: Maybe I'm the Dakhor Monk Spy and I want to vote on someone no one else would vote for. That would mess up my RP some, but still. It would be interesting. Also, I was on mobile at the time, and it seemed like too much effort since I would have gotten to my computer in about 10 minutes. I think you are perfectly justified in your suspicions. Carry on as usual and do not let this minor mishap in causing my demise bring you much doubt in your capabilities. [Why do I sometimes go into life coach mode? I really need to stop. I am not qualified to advise you on anything.] Your solution does not help if Lotus is an elim. I personally don't think Lotus is an elim, but in the off chance that they are, I would like to be capable of at least preventing their continued existence. If a better target arises, I will be more than willing to switch off. [Also, if I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I'll switch to save myself]. Yes, I claimed elim, but my intent is not to cause chaos. Since claiming elim immediately puts suspicion on me, it disincentivises the elims from killing me. If I then am helpful and useful, people won't lynch me. It also helps as an elim because it provides a handy excuse for why the elims aren't night killing me when I'm being helpful and useful. I am convinced of this strategy's merits. However, each time I have attempted to use it, I have been lynched D1. Hopefully, I can avert that curse this game.

Option 1 is my favorite and was the reason for my vote, but I had not taken into account 1: the existence of a death penalty and 2: the stipulation that the death is caused by an attack. These two things have cancelled each other out and only incentivised my continued vote on Lotus. [Basically, I'm a fool who was wrong twice over, and I was wrong about being wrong about being wrong.] I do acknowledge that there is nothing much to go off of and my reasoning was initially based on flawed premises, but I do hope you see the reasoning in my Lotus lynch argument. Just weigh the impacts [assuming Lotus is telling the truth because I can't see a reason why they would be lying as either alignment] We lynch, elim!Lotus: We get an elim and PMs. I don't think Lotus is an elim, but if they are, great. We lynch, village!Lotus: We get PMs, don't take a penalty for Lotus dying in the night, and don't lose much. Most likely outcome of the lynch. We don't lynch, elim!Lotus: We let an elim go. If they don't die in the night, this option becomes more likely. We don't lynch, village!Lotus: The elims will probably kill them in the night, causing a death penalty. If we lynch Lotus, we definitely get PMs and don't take a death penalty. We might catch an elim, though it is unlikely. If we do not lynch Lotus, we either let an elim off the hook or take a death penalty when they are slaughtered in the night unless we manage to plot a rescue mission with King Iadon or a martyr of an Actor [and in that case, we risk protecting an elim]. In my opinion, lynching Lotus causes superior outcomes to not lynching Lotus.

Nlst. Chevoka. Naukuutsai

Statements should never logically follow the statements around them. Music is a metaphor for society, or maybe it's the other way around. If you think about it, humanity is actually addicted to adenosine triphosphate. Numbers are a mere illusion, wrought from dreams and starstuff. Julie d'Aubigny is buried in an unmarked grave. The eyes you feel boring into your spine are real. The wall plants are indeed slightly crystalline. The phone stopped ringing 3 minutes, 27 seconds ago. The wireframes work well enough if you live in a lower dimension, you measly mortal plebe.

Question. Answer. Question. Counterquestion. A pause. A long, uncomfortable silence broken only by the shattering window. A sudden breeze. Red. Blue. Red. Red.

I saw no other options for a lynch, considering we have no other suspicions at the moment. If that changes, I might switch off, though given the penalties, perhaps I won't. While I don't think Lotus is an elim, the claim is the best lead we have thus far. Odds are they aren't an elim, but we get PMs, don't get a penalty [which is retroactive reasoning, but no less convincing, hopefully], and might catch an elim Adjudicator. If we assume that an elim Adjudicator exists, then Lotus has a 1/3 [or 1/2, depending on the distribution] chance of being the elim [this probably is affected by the claim, but I don't know enough about people to predict that], which is at least marginally better than the 1/5-1/4 chance of a random person being an elim. As stated, I will switch off if any more pressing suspicions arise.

Alright. I tend to accuse people rather than trust them because I am well aware of my susceptibility to well-reasoned analysis. However, don't listen to me. You're new. You have to learn to stand without the opinions of others supporting you. Do things because they make sense to you, not because they actually make sense. I believe in your capabilities.

Could you elaborate on your suspicions? I am well aware of the fact that I claimed elim, but I vow upon something valuable that this strategy has merit and will be beneficial in the end. However, other than that, I don't think I've done anything particularly worthy of note.

Alas, I am doubly a fool. Option 1: Lynch Lotus, ensuring that we do not take a penalty. Option 2: Ignore Lotus, most likely allowing the elims to kill them. Option 3: Plan a rescue mission involving a martyr Actor or the great King Iadon. Option 3 is better than Option 1 is better than Option 2, but Option 3 is risky and unreliable because 1: Most people are not willing to be martyrs and 2: The King could swap the role with an elim. Option 1 is guaranteed, but we do lose an adjudicator. We definitely should get a lynch to open PMs, so I'll leave my vote on Lotus for now. If a better lynch target comes up, I'll switch off.

I... completely forgot about the adjudicator death penalty because I'm an idiot and a plebe undeserving of life. I'm keeping the vote there until a better option arises though. It's mostly a placeholder until any suspicions arise. I don't particularly believe Lotus is an elim. I don't not believe they're an elim, but still.

I expected at least one village adjudicator. Perhaps two. However, a village adjudicator is not particularly useful, so it would be no great loss if we were to lynch Lotus for being an adjudicator. If no other possibilities appear by the end of the cycle, we should lynch them. Kadio laughed. As it turned out, Sunwalker the Unlucky was a judge. "Kill them," he said coldly. "Everything to gain if we do, nothing to lose if we don't."

I am bad at analysing people, so I shall instead analyse posts and in doing so, analyse the people. 1 Matrim: RP 2 Lotus: RP 3 Venture: RP 4 Ventyl: RP 5 Elkanah: RP + questions 6 Kynedath: Answers, all hail. 7 Elkanah: More questions, noble insignia good [Noble Insignia's are definitely not necessary for everyone, especially considering that the double vote is the same price] 8 Kynedath: Answers, all hail. 9 Elkanah: Clarifying questions 10 Kynedath: Answers, all hail 11 Elkanah: Money analysis [The problem is that the elims can just wait a cycle to buy the Murder contract] 12 TJ: Elim adjudicator = BAD NEWS [It's not that bad. Just don't regale the thread with your suspicions, hire assassins in the night, and be not afraid] 13 Gears: Analysis, RP, elim claim 14 Kynedath: Answers, all hail. 15 Venture: Pokes xino 16 Matrim: Noble insignias meh. Gears elim claim NAI [It is working!] Pokes Ash. Wants PMs 17 Ventyl: Votes Gears with weirdly worded reasoning [Chaos = good/bad? "elim too"] 18 Elkanah: General responses to posts. Ignore spy, likes PMs. Pokes Devo. 19 Matrim: Ignore the spy, if spy known protect it. 20 Gears: If elim!Adjudicator, Kingpin++. Agree with Matrim. 21 Elkanah: Agrees with Matrim. Hypothesises role distribution. 22 Kings_way: Thinks should kill spy if discovered. 23 Gears: Further hypothesises role distribution. Protect spy if discovered. 24 Vapor: People analysis. 25 Kynedath: Rule change, all hail. 26 Matrim: Question. 27 Kynedath: Answer, all hail. 28 Matrim: Chatty = village. 29 Vapor: Mist isn't here. 30 Devotary: Responses. Noble Insignias meh. Ignore spy. PMs = good, no vote = bad. Elim!adjudicator not that dangerous. 31 Ventyl: Question. 32 Ash: RP. 33 Matrim: Ash exists. 34 Mist: Exists. 35 Ventyl: Retracts Gears 36 Elkanah: Reads 37 Ventyl: Was joke vote 38 Elkanah: Ninjas are annoying 39 Kynedath: Answers, all hail. 40 Ventyl: Sadness. Matrim: I instinctively want to trust them because they think my elim claim is NAI. However, this read is null. Elkanah: I like the discussion, though they are thus far NAI. Slight village for chit-chat, but objectively a null. Kings_way: I fundamentally disagree with their spy strategy. Slight elim for that, but they're a newbie. Anyone not mentioned is a null. [@Ashbringer, you have a talent for prose. Have you ever considered writing a novel? If so, act on these considerations at once. If not, begin considering] The bone fragments that littered the alleyways were made no less disturbing by their multiplicity. There was no flesh, no blood. Only bone, and the acrid scent of burning flesh. Some Fjorden priests had tried to find the spy by their own methods. Trial by fire, they said. Leave the soul for Domi, and we'll take the bones. Kadio wasn't squeamish, but the priests' methods left a bitter taste in his mouth. Or maybe that was the ash he'd inhaled in the brief moments he'd been standing here, in front of these things that used to be people. He turned away, but those bone fragments lingered in his mind's eye for a long time.

Lovely hat. 1. (If you don't simplify your fractions, you are deemed unworthy by forces outside of my control).

Very true. Concerning roles/alignments: I don't think the spy would count as an elim because the elims actively want the spy dead and the village doesn't need the spy dead. 4 elims/3 and an Adjudicator is probably a good bet. There would be the same number of Trademasters and Kingpins, leaning towards an extra Kingpin if an elim Adjudicator exists. Also, the spy is not a role, it's a faction. Given that, either another actor or socialite. King Iadon: 1 [VILLAGE] Executive Secretary: 1 [VILLAGE] Kingpin: 2, maybe three in the case of elim Adjudicator. Trademaster: 2. Actor: 1-2, probably not more than that. Burglar: 1-2, probably not more than that. Adjudicator: 2, maybe three in the case of elim Adjudicator. Socialite: 3-4. I would argue that if we find the spy, we should actively protect them, or at the very least conceal their identity to the best of our ability, to hurt the elims, especially considering the lack of a night kill.

Standard elim numbers are 20-25%, so 3-4 people. I think an Adjudicator would replace an elim, so if they have one, 2-3. It really depends on how many Kingpins there are. I would expect more Kingpins in the case of an elim Adjudicator. Option 2 definitely seems superior in the early game. If the spy is still alive by the late game, we can transition to Option 1. I only brought up Option 3 for those paranoid folks who don't like people actively working against the village that we don't want to kill. Kadio smiled emptily at the customers. Money may have made him happier once, but only the downfall of the merchants would satisfy him now. The Fjorden priests were in position. Soon, they would strike. However, there were rumors of Dakhor monks in the city. The bone priests were mysterious things, a natural shifting of one's body into something grotesque and strange. Could such twisting save him from the sickness coiling through his flesh? Probably not, and even if it could, the monks were secretive about the art. The monk could snatch victory from the hands of those who sympathised with the enemy. A danger, though not one that could be easily rectified. The bones were not obvious from first glance. Fortunately, the merchants seemed content to ignore the Dakhor monk in their midst, so it would not be too difficult to strike it down once it was found. As he handed goods to his customers, his hands shook. The disease was destroying him, one piece at a time. Nothing could save him now. Better to bring down the world with him.

Alas, rollover happens whilst I languish deep in slumber. Do not expect anything out of me for the first 8-10 hours of a cycle. For lack of other things to do, rule analysis commences below. Factions: The village wants the Dakhor Monk Spy alive since the Fjorden Sympathisers will actively try not to live while this is the case. The Fjorden Sympathisers want the Dakhor Monk Spy dead because they cannot win until this is so. The Dakhor Monk Spy wants the Fjorden Sympathisers to win so they can snatch victory out of their blood-stained hands. Option 1: Actively try to keep the Dakhor Monk Spy alive while they work against the village. Option 2: Let the Dakhor Monk Spy die as it will and just focus on finding the Fjorden Sympathisers. Option 3: Actively try to kill the Dakhor Monk Spy. I personally prefer the second option. Roles: King Iadon: Swap 2 people's role. @Kynedath, what happens if King Iadon targets a faction-specific role? Can KIng Iadon target themself? It is a priority to keep this role alive, not for the role itself but for the consequences upon its untimely demise. If King Iadon dies, the Executive Secretary [our only scanner] loses its abilities and the Markets are shut down. Keep yourself alive, oh great King. We are lost without your royal visage. Adjudicator: Grants lynch immunity. If an elim has this role, we should all fear the power of judges and decision makers. However, it cannot self target, so we should defenestrate this individual as soon as possible. If you are a villager with this role, do not use it until you are certain of the innocence of your comrade, and even then, hesitate. Executive Secretary: Our best and only scanner. Stay alive. The longer you live, the more precious you become. Try not to be too obvious with your information. We need you. Socialite: Chit-chat the rattle-cat. Useless until PMs open. Perhaps we can intentionally split the vote to allow Socialites to create group PMs. The anonymous message feature can be useful if you have anything to share privately. Actor: Makes players lose money, acts as a stunt double. If you are ever going to be murdered, go body-hunting. Trademaster: For the sake of our wallets, stay alive. Kingpin: For the sake of our wallets, stay alive. Burgler: Accumulate four items as fast as you can. Then do what you want with them. Lynch: The only bad scenarios are Martial Law and Anarchy. These strictly benefit elims since they make it harder to lynch people. Actions: Role, money, purchasing, PMs. PMs: We should have a lynch today just to unlock PMs. Then we can decide if we want abstain for a cycle to be free of limits. Currency: Useful. Hoard it like the dragons of old. Wealth is power. Items: Noble Insignia: If you think you'll be suspicious, feel free to take this. For instance, I am planning on claiming elim yet again in hopes that it will finally work this time. Trade Rights: Great way to ensure someone's demise. Embargo: Roleblock. Personal Messenger: A PM for those bereft of actions. Contracts: Murder: Expensive, if you think someone is an elim that won't be lynched, you are welcome to try. Surveillance: This is good. Get it. Opens up some bus strategies. Mercenary Bodyguard: A protect. Identity Theft: @Kynedath, can this theft steal faction-specific roles? Fascinating. So many possibilities. Kadio grinned as the customers flowed through the markets like water, bringing their wealth with them. Did they know that the merchant guild was colluding to drive up prices? Perhaps, perhaps not. But they spent Deo like it was toxic, and the merchants profited. Abruptly, he coughed violently. Terminal illness. He would not live for very long. He was wealthy, but his wealth could not save him from this. He was the best of the merchants, and yet he was to be struck down. He would not allow it. If he was to die, all others would die with him. The Fjorden priests wished to overthrow the merchants. Ordinarily, he would slaughter them, but now? When his lungs had decided to tear themselves apart? Trying circumstances bring the strangest of allies. [For those who cannot tell, I am claiming elim yet again. I promise this strategy has merit. Also, I find it funny. You are welcome to disagree with me, but what's done is done.]

I would like to preface this by saying that I have not read Alcatraz. All information about Bastille has been gathered via the Coppermind. Bastille’s article is pretty short. Also, I’m trying a different style. No rap, just poetry. Tell me what you think.

There are traitors among us, according to Twelfth of the Moon's journal. I do not know who it could be. I do not interact with other trappers enough to know who would betray Patji in this way. We must find them and kill them before they bring us down. Zek, my Aviar, will aid me as best it can, but against other trappers, it can only do so much. Patji, Father, killer, defender, give us the strength to strike down these traitors that dare to welcome outsiders to your domain. Signing up as Fourth of the Dark. All discussion will be held via journal entries. Any OoC comments that cannot be elaborated on via journal will not be italicised.

I found the Shard by looking up a question I had on the internet. Then I lurked for many moons before finally creating an account. I discovered that I am a terrible truth-teller, logical reasoner, and liar. I enjoyed Selecting the Leader of the Hegemony of the World, though @Channelknight Fadran, know that your leadership is a mere puppet for my control. Also, @Experience, how do you know all those people? That is impressive, especially since I don't remember interacting with you. When did we meet?

Accept endings, mournful departure, solemn departure, mourning endings, acceptance.

Things I regret: Not choosing Taylor, accepting the alliance, not making more alliances, not protecting myself every round. Things I don't regret: Killing people. Conclusion: I should have joined the alliance with Taylor, pretended to go along with it, and continued to just murder people. I never actually roleblocked anyone. I was a fool.

I shall play as Kadio, an apathetic merchant with no care for anything besides money. Empires rise and fall, but money lasts until the collective consciousness no longer pretends it has value.