Mat
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Everything posted by Mat
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If we exe an elim, why wouldn’t it be helpful? And if they flip vil we’ve got lots of info to work with.
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Why? I say the opposite. Striker was fine killing Dannex only when Lotus was up for exe. This shows a direct preference for Lotus over Dannex, which doesn't make much sense if they're both evil considering their roles. In C1, Dannex voted for Lotus, though I think it was self-pres. More notably, both Quinn and Striker did not vote Lotus, and Striker voted Dannex. In C2, both Quinn and Lotus voted Dannex, and Dannex voted for Quinn. I don't see how that level of bussing was necessary at all, so I'm inclined to think it wasn't. In C3, Dannex voted for Quinn, though maybe it was self-pres again, I don't remember. Ninja'd by Devotary.
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Edit that's completely overwriting a confusing repeat post in which my internet freaked: Man, it was such a great theory! I guess I could soft-clear you cause Striker flipped White. Ah, that explains a previous comment of yours. We'll get to that, maybe. If it's necessary.
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Hey, was anyone bonded to Quinn? Or is that question too on-the-nose for you to claim?
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How can Quinn's flip make you sure of Archer's role?
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I still think that was vil!you trying to save vil!him :P.
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Aight. Lotus is likely Black Ajah, via connections with both Striker and Quinn. Looking at the EoD for C3, Lotus specifically chose Archer over Quinn. If both were evil, Lotus likely would have stuck with Quinn, but she didn't. (I get that this fringes on Lotus being evil but I find that likely enough to soft-clear Archer)
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Huh, I guess I can read Quinn. That's cool. Soft-clearing Archer for this, and Lotus looking not very good. Pretty sure Dannex is locked in village too. Elims, why'd you attack me when I was a claimed Warder? Really? Also, Lotus. Welcome, Orlok!
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Tournament: Cosmere Character Roast Battles
Mat replied to Ashspren's topic in Forum Games & Random Stuff
Did I 100% forget about this? Yes. Sorry, I've been a bit busy lately. Ghander, if I don't get it in today, you can call it. but I'm sure gonna try, if that's alright. -
You don't know how glad I am the page count didn't double overnight. I won't be back until after rollover, and so want to put my vote somewhere meaningful. As such, I find Quinn more likely to be exed than Lotus. (And will be decently annoyed if you decide to kill Lotus instead.)
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The roles are randomly distributed among the finalized player list, but how many of each role and which alignments have which roles is not random and should be balanced to the GM's judgement. I'm assuming TJ did that, of course- I don't actually know- but if he didn't he did something different than every other game on this site
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I'm back... MR46: I GMd that, so I definitely can attest to your massive amount of PMing :P. LG72: Did you really die C3? It seemed like you lived longer than that. That game also had excessive PMing, QF49: Which game was this? Oh right I didn't play that one. You died C1 so can't use it to prove a point, but neither can I. I don't think I said it looked elim then, but even if I did, it wasn't for the same reason I do now. This feels more... fake. I personally think this is Grey!Illwei saving Dannex, but I dunno :). Actually, this is entirely false, the distribution itself is not random in the slightest. Honestly reads to me like you're trying to pick up the shade from Burnt and increases my suspicion on the both of you. I don't think Archer would be this blatant, but maybe that's me vil tunneling him. A skeptical eye has been turned to you, @Archer Devo voted early gasp :), I bet you are one... My order of exeing: Quinn or Lotus Whichever one of ^ is still alive Burnt Connie ....Archer? But depending on various flips, of course.
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Mat's PoE! Cycle Three! Rhyming, Wheee! Ahem. Lotus, Quinn, Burnt Lotus: Has connections with Striker, ie Striker had been defending Dannex all game. Lotus becomes the counterwagon, and Striker is suddenly fine with killing Dannex. Additionally a gut read, possibly stemming from their hesitance. Quinn: Flopping on/off Dannex in a way that reads to me as an elim trying to do it villagery. I can't explain it any other way, but the flopping feels deliberate. I thought they seemed more mayory than her village games, though I don't think anyone else did. Add that too the the Striker connections, and... Burnt: Is there really two village Browns? I'm not convinced. What I do think is possible is that we found our e/e Bond pair, though with some people arguing that two v!Browns might be possible I'm not sure. Condensation: Still gut from C1, and I'm still suspicious of WGG, though admittedly not as much anymore. Her original Dannex vote pinged off to me and she has hence dissolved into the background. I took off Archer and Devotary because a gut read on the former and a lack of content on the latter. (And added Connie) I'll be gone for... 1.5 hours.
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They are. 1 & 2 I think we both came up with independently, 3 is one Illwei pointed out alone
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Seeeee I've been saying Quinn is sus :P. I'm still on Lotus, but would switch to Quinn and have said that before. Has been very devoted to his reasonings instead of cooling it off slowly like an elim would Has been significantly more active than his elim game Has no teammatey-like connection with Striker, the opposite in fact (the thing about being fine with tying it with Striker) Something else Also, what's wrong with me agreeing with Illwei's assessment of things? I'm not super great at coherently making analysis posts. I play by gut (and hopefully logic) and when I see reasoning I agree with, I agree with it.
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Oof that sucks
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Interesting, as you only can have PMs with one person. Or well I guess more than one, but I doubt there are double Warders tbh.
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I personally don't doubt Burnt's ID if she's ready to reveal cause revealing a false role is kinda dumb. It's not like it'll come as a big shocker to anyone, I don't think. Not to anyone who's been paying attention. So if people really want to hard-confirm Burnt's role (which again I don't find necessary) then go for it. Edit: If Burnt/Lotus (or one of) is an elim, then the elims already know anyway. And I find that likely, so I mean. Sure.
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First: I still can't wrap my head around the bolded part. It seems to me that evidence for not elim is evidence for vil and vice versa, but that's our differences and we won't get anywhere arguing it back and forth. Second, replying to the edit: I got no defense to that, except to say that, respective of when they were posted, both. At the time I said it was too much of a red flag, that was what I thought. Then I left, thought about it, came back, read Illwei's post, realized why I read Dannex as vil the whole game in the first place, and changed my mind. And my evidence is showing Illwei's pointing out the contradictions of evil Dannex and why that doesn't make sense. But those arguments don't fly if you think evidence for not elim =/= evidence for vil. Yeahhhh this is a very good point right here
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But what is the difference there? If there are a bunch of reasons why someone isn't evil the only other option is that they're good. Oh I'm aware I think part of it is that we reach the same conclusions but you do it faster :P.
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What's the difference :P. And am I the king of flopping votes? Listening to other people (perhaps to too great of lengths)? Sheeping Illwei this game? All yeses. And honestly, I'm looking for any reason not to exe Dannex because I still read him as village. The Striker thing is weird... but not overpowering. Dannex, Lotus. Still willing to exe Quinn though.
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But I don’t wanna... Dannex Sigh. Striker starting the Ash wagon when he wasn’t in real danger is just too much of a red flag. Maybe this way we can avoid a 20 pg cycle :/
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Well I think you're a Gray but idk
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Yeah I'm all paranoid again
