Mr Doctor

Just now, Furamirionind said:

You "worry I have duped the village"? Your reasoning on voting for me is basically that of a revenge vote... I did analysis that most people thought valid on Drought, so accusing me on that case is based solely on the result and not what brought me there. Analysis of the rings is something that needed to be done, you will notice that I also have been consistently talking about players this game, just as much, if not more than I talked about the rings. 

This accusation sounds desperate to me... Like you think the game will end if you die... Is this true?
If you are the Green Man, you should role-call, as you are close to getting lynched, and it will buy us 1 extra cycle with Rand.

I voted on Drought because I was willing to trade him for information about you, since you're an active player and I wouldn't want to vote on you without anything more substantial. Since you've been focusing on him since very early in the game and he turned out to be a Villager, and you've had suspicions of me and I'm a Villager, I think that it's worth lynching you.

I suppose I am desperate, since convincing the Village to lynch you is my greatest chance of survival. I don't believe that the game will end if I die, and I'm not sure what you're implying by that question.

I'm not the Green Man.

Lynching me is a mistake, but that's what anyone in my position would say. For reference, when I flip Village, this is the order of priority that I think people should be looked at, and the reasons for the suspicions that I have against them:

1. Furamirionind - focusing on Villagers
2. Mark IV - mostly just a gut read here, but claiming Elim sounds weird, and something I would do if I wanted to have some fun with the Village
3. Amanuensis - seems genuine to the point of staging it
4. Sart - hasn't provided many reasons for his votes and has been skimming a level of activity where an Elim would best hide
5. A Joe in a Bush - has been voting based on what other people say, and his "I'm not an Elim" post doesn't sound very good to me
6. Karnatheon - tunneled hard on Snipexe earlier in the game but has been acting Village for everything else
7. CadCom - not much to say here, so he's right in the middle
8. randuir - has been acting neutral or Village, but I think that it'll be devastating if randuir is an Elim
9. Steeldancer - cleared by being attacked and surviving

 

Votes:

Mr Doctor (4) - Steeldancer/Ookla the Positive, randuir, A Joe in the Bush, Furamirionind

Furamirionind (1) - Mr Doctor

3 hours ago, randuir said:

In this post he talks about being wary of Karantheon in response to a post by Mark. More interesting is his stated suspicion of Young Bard over his vote against BR, which he said was poorly justified, but at the same time he also said that the vote against him was a test of BR and steeldancer. This feels off to me, as if you believe someone has poorly justified their vote, then them flipping village wouldn't tell you much about the persons they where voting on because the vote was poorly justified. It seems like he's trying to bet on multiple horses at once, which makes me suspicious of him given young bard's and BR's alignments.

Hmm. Fair enough, that is a pretty big discrepancy. I suppose I should have outlined how my thoughts had changed in that post.

 

3 hours ago, randuir said:

last day-cycle he shared some more player analysis. I think his read of Furami is of particular note,as he keeps open all possibilities, and then hinges it on the Droughtbrigner vote, which he later reiterates by stating that given how Drought flipped, Furami is more suspicious than himself.

What do you think this means about me?

 

I'm going with what I said last Day, and so Furamirionind. You've focused on Drought, who was a Villager, and you focused on me, both for a significant portion of the game. And I worry that you've duped the Village into trusting you by providing helpful analysis of the Rings.

2 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

Oh yay I survived. Mr. Doctor. Also, seriously RIP HH. Getting hit twice by the same creature? That sucks. Also, Mr. Doctor, the problem is now my gut is telling me you are suspicious. 

5 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

I commented on her vote on Snipexe and said that I don't really have much against the vote even though I didn't agree with it at that stage. I did end up voting on Snipexe that cycle to solidify it. Additionally, I told her what Fifth had said about the preferred minimum number of players.

Yes, and Snipexe was a hardy villager. If you are an elim, it would be smart for you to kill any hardy villagers that there are. So of course you would solidify the lynch, and of course you would pretend to not agree with it. If I may remind you, I ran LG46, I watched first hand as you single handedly fooled the entire village. So, I'm a little more willing to be suspicious of you for the little things, like yes, even "yet" which I may say you didn't apply to any other individual in that post. Granted, if you were an elim, then there would likely be more than one elim on that list, but I feel like it's a slip up. Possibly. 
Thing is, there's no proof for Randuir being elim, other than the weird Emond's field messages, which honestly are starting to get on my nerves. @randuir, how are you not involved in making these messages at all? Thing is, like Mr. Doctor, Randuir also doesn't have huge tells. Thing is... honestly, I don't know if this is Randuir's style. If it were someone who's more of a troll, like Alvron or Stink, I would be suspicious of them in a heartbeat. But Randuir tends to be a bit more straightforward, and his tells tend to be in his actions. The very same reasons I'm suspicious of Doctor- his actions. One can look as village as all heck in your posts, but honestly I find his vote on Snipexe and his interactions with Brightness to be contrived. Smartly contrived, but contrived. 

Snipexe's Lynch: I suppose that it's reasonable to assume that I could fake the entire latter half of this post in order to appear more hesitant about Karnatheon's suspicions of Snipexe. And now that I read that Cycle again, I realise that I didn't solidify the lynch. I apologise, I made a mistake and was reading the wrong Cycle because I forgot that Snipexe got lynched twice. When he was finally killed, I was the second person to vote on him after Karnatheon. My reasons for voting on him were because I believed in Karnatheon's logic and trusted his judgement, and would only proceed once I knew that Snipexe had a lower chance of being Rand. Could I have faked this? Of course I could have. But given the fact that I pointed out very good reasons why one would not lynch Snipexe, I think that it's reasonable to assume that I was not trying to get rid of Rand, because an Elim would probably focus harder on Rand than give Villagers a way to avoid lynching him. If Rand dies, everyone who votes on him gets suspected, and so Elim!Doctor would want as many people as possible to dogpile it to make analysis harder, and therefore undermining Karnatheon's argument would be detrimental to that cause. I initially didn't disagree with that lynch (the first one) because frankly I didn't really know enough about the players to vehemently oppose a lynch. I joined the second one because I agreed with Karnatheon. Apologised about the mixup in which lynch I voted on, that was my mistake in remembering the Cycle, and I thought that I'd voted on him the first time.

"Yet": My speech patterns probably do appear suspicious, yes. When I'm typing casually, I like to have fun with words. I make small jokes, and I add in little bits of drama to my writing as I write it. "Yet" was a small fancy that I indulged in because it was a way of saying that I was watching BR to slip up, as I don't believe that there are any players (except for maybe our Neutral Randuir) who don't look suspicious at some point, regardless of alignment. I could have appended "yet" onto the end of every comment I made like that and the meaning (at least, how I thought of it) would be the same. I feel like it's a similar situation to when I clarified what I meant by "the watchlist" when talking to Furamirionind halfway down this post. It's a pattern of speech. The reason why I believe that this is NAI is that when I'm an Elim, I proofread ridiculously. Writing a single post in LG46 could take up to 3 hours because I combed it for each detail and tailored every sentence and claim to have the right balance of Village and neutrality without making it seem like I'm trying too hard. When I'm a Villager, I write honestly and don't proof my posts with nearly the same level of detail, which for some reason makes me look more suspicious despite being more honest. So the fact that you're noticing discrepancies in my posts is more likely to be a sign of me being a Villager more than an Elim. I don't expect you to believe me, but consider it regardless.

Interactions with BR: My interactions with her are minimal, and I suppose that you could say that I'm trying to make some connection so that we don't look like we're actively avoiding each other, but not so much that it can be read into, but that's tenuous evidence at best, and not good enough for a lynch in my eyes. @Ookla the Positive Could you provide some more details on how you're reading my interactions with her?

 

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

It sucks because I dont have enough time to do the analysis on MrDoctor that he deserves. The Aginor claim is my gut and nothing else. Him being an elim though is based in a bit more. (Again note: I dont have my notes, and probably wont for the rest of this game as I will be doing it on my phone or work computer)

I have been mentioning my suspicions of MrDoctor for a while, but when I first took note of him, it was D3, because i think he should have died N2. I really do. Full explanation in my post there.  I did some analysis on this, mostly revolving around the point that he should be dead. He responded to the post, then didnt turn up in-thread for a while. I understand being busy, but if you were an elim, this could also help get you out of the limelight.  The killing pattern of the elims went toward semi-inactive players.  When Bard and I were elims in LG50, we decided to go after fully inactives to make the game more interesting.  Semi-actives are still people contributing to discussion somewhat, and therefore can be valuable to the village. Killing them I dont think is going on hard mode. This means either the elims felt that they needed to make the game more interesting starting C2/3 (which seems early to me) or they had another reason.

If there are other reasons to explain the killing pattern, say them. I will be following the thread, and can change my vote/respond etc. I just wont be able to do detailed stuff.

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If Doctor was evil, then he probably wouldn't have thought much about it preemptively since he'd expect Steel to die, and at the very end of said post he declares it looks bad for Steel that he was ganging up on him with Fura and considers voting for him, in SPITE of Steel surviving an attack. That sounds less like an eliminator with knowledge of kills ahead of time and more like a villager who missed the failed attack. Maybe that seems like a pretty silly thing to read somebody on but it takes a bit of... I'm not really sure how to word it? Some kind of mix of confidence and impassiveness?... to pull that off, let alone quickly. I'm not sure many people are capable of it.

Hmm...

Aman's post makes sense, and I am withholding my vote from MrDoc for now... i will try to look closer at some other players i am suspicious of, but i wont be able to do any reall analysis. 

Gut Aginor Read: I can't really argue with that, other than to deny it. I am not Aginor, and that will become clear if I am lynched.

I Should be Dead: If I understand your point about how the Elims should have killed me: I was active and analytical in the first few Cycles but quiet in Night 2, which means that I can be killed without people being able to think about why I was targeted, because I didn't have any recent suspicions. @Furamirionind Is that correct? The Elims could have any number of reasons for killing people or not killing them, and so while I think that your logic holds, I don't feel that it's conclusive. Perhaps the Elims wanted to go after more inactive players before semi-actives. Perhaps they thought that I would be suspected by everyone more because of the reputation that my first game earned me. If I hadn't gotten any good suspicions at the time, they may not have gauged me to be a threat, and could deal with me later.

 

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

On that note, though, I want to point out that despite Steel being attacked, Doctor managed to write a post in direct response to Steel's accusations within 16 minutes of the write up being posted. If Doctor was evil, then he probably wouldn't have thought much about it preemptively since he'd expect Steel to die, and at the very end of said post he declares it looks bad for Steel that he was ganging up on him with Fura and considers voting for him, in SPITE of Steel surviving an attack. That sounds less like an eliminator with knowledge of kills ahead of time and more like a villager who missed the failed attack. Maybe that seems like a pretty silly thing to read somebody on but it takes a bit of... I'm not really sure how to word it? Some kind of mix of confidence and impassiveness?... to pull that off, let alone quickly. I'm not sure many people are capable of it. 

I didn't see that in the writeup until I had sent that post, and I wanted to get a response to Steel after the accusations that he made to me, because I need to be more active and I decided that he would probably be voting on me this Cycle. I didn't want a bandwagon to start before I had a chance to defend myself.

 

This Cycle I feel most suspicious of Furamirionind. He led the lynch against Drought, trying to get it started for several Cycles now. He's thrown suspicion at me that I consider to be poor. And he's managed to ingratiate himself with the Village with Ring analysis, which is a pretty efficient way to earn trust. I don't really like it, but I'll wait for a while to vote. I want to hear responses first.

@Ookla the Positive my response to your accusations.

 

22 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

Also, given that Drought has turned Village, I'm further suspicious of Mr. Doctor. 

 - Steeldancer

Yes, I did contribute to a lynch on a Villager, but only because it would solidify any lynch at all and I believed that the plan was to Defend that Cycle. I think that Furamirionind is more suspicious given Drought's flip, since he's been targeting Drought since the start of the game. What do you feel about that?

 

19 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Right now, I would bet on MrDoctor being an elim. I will try to do some more analysis at some point though. (no guarantee this turn)

 - Furamirionind

Acknowledged, and I look forward to this reasoning.

 

19 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

I'm now a bit more nervous about Randuir, but I still think lynching Mr. Doctor is the best idea. The primary problem would be if it turns out that Mr. Doctor is Aginor, because they are hardy and a single lynch will not be effective against them.

 - Steeldancer

As has been pointed out, why lynch me over randuir?

 

18 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Mr. Doctor we know nothing about and some posts ring warning bells to me.  Bleh...  I just realized, I made a case for why Mr.Doctor should have been killed by the elims N2.  Ever since then, elims have been targeting inactives or semi actives. I could see this as a ploy get rid of the credibility of that claim.  Now it doesn't matter who they kill though as they have enough killing power to cripple us...

 - Furamirionind

What is your case? Is this in reference to how I don't mind killing inactives as much as I used to? Here's an explanation of that. I suppose it is relevant that in LG46 I decided to kill inactives rather than active players because it was more sporting, but I don't think that this is your case. 

18 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

The question becomes is he Aginor, which I would guess, yes, he is.  Aginor is probably the most powerful role in the game. He can kill, summon creatures that kill, and can manipulate the lynch. The elims would do just about anything to keep him alive, including refusing to kill helpful players in this game.  BR had been under serious suspicion the entire game.

 - Furamirionind

Why do you think this? I'm not really sure how you're so adamant that I'm not only an Elim, but Aginor. I can't really respond to this other than to deny it until you give me some hard reasons and evidence. I'm happy to do that, but I can't exactly clear things up if you don't tell me what you suspect.

 

18 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

And you really think Mr. Doctor might just straight up be Aginor? And is there any guarantee that Randuir might not be Aginor if he's an eliminator? Paranoia will eat us alive. I currently trust my suspicion of Mr. Doctor, although admittedly after finding several reasons to suspect him I mainly focused on his posts, in particular his interactions with BR, so I didn't pay as much attention to Randuir's posts. I might find time to do more analysis tomorrow focusing on him, and trying to parse what might be going on in the Emond's field doc, but I'm also taking 2 finals tomorrow so. 

 - Steeldancer

This conversation is feeling a bit staged, but I'll let that slide for now. What is your suspicion, and what are your reasons for suspecting me? As for my interactions with BR, I'll go through them in order:

1. Commented on the fact that she preferred reading people to rules, and the only suspicious thing I may have said was "Nothing suspicious here yet", but that's generally just how I talk. I like to leave things open. Source post.
2. I commented on her vote on Snipexe and said that I don't really have much against the vote even though I didn't agree with it at that stage. I did end up voting on Snipexe that cycle to solidify it. Additionally, I told her what Fifth had said about the preferred minimum number of players. Source post.

Maybe I missed one of them. What of these made you suspicious? And what were your initial suspicions?

 

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Mr.Dr and Mark are suspicious to me.

 - Furamirionind

I've read everything you've said about me last Cycle, and...why?

 

@Ookla the Positive @Furamirionind I will happily defend myself from your suspicions, and I would like to hear them, but so far, there hasn't been much evidence. I can defend myself and discuss, and I'm happy to do that if it saves my life, but I can't do that if you don't give me evidence. At least give me something that I can challenge, because right now it looks like you're trying to make me defend myself so that I look suspicious.

As much as throwing suspicions back and forth gets us nowhere, Fura and Steel are looking pretty bad by ganging up on me with no real evidence. However, because Furamirionind has been focusing on Drought all game and he turned out to be a Villager, I'd prefer to vote on him this Cycle.

Furamirionind

Has been one of the most active players. He’s also been focusing pretty hard on Drought since very early in the game. I think that Drought’s flip would tell us a lot about Fura, and losing an active player over a less-active player is probably a good trade. So I don’t really oppose this lynch. Additionally, his logic against Drought is sound, so I’m willing to support it to see what happens. Furamirionind is either a great asset to the Village, or he’s infiltrated extremely well. I think that Drought’s flip will tell us more.

 

Karnatheon

Another active player. Believes that randuir is Village and has done a lot of analysis of the action economy and negation. All of his suspicions seem reasonable so far, or at least they have good justification behind them. He seems genuinely helpful and is pointing things out that an Elim would benefit from simply ignoring. I think that I read Village on Karn.

 

Rathmaskal

Focused on BR earlier than others, which is notable, and claimed to have had his vote negated. It’s possible that this was an attempt by the Elims to clear him, especially on an already-confirmed vote against a Villager, but I’m not sure. It could also be the Elims trying to make things seem like that. Implied that people claiming their doc in-thread was a bad idea, and I think that this is an example of something that an Elim could just not state in order to sabotage the Village further. So far Rath hasn’t really done anything particularly egregious, but he also hasn’t done a great deal to redeem himself beyond focusing on BR.

 

Droughtbringer

Probably the strongest candidate for an Elim at the moment, because as has been pointed out he’s made a few posts, most of which don’t say much. This could imply enough activity to put in actions and maintain some presence but not enough to draw attention to himself. Additionally, voting on BR is an efficient way to get read as Village for lynching an Elim, even if that teammate was already doomed. Fura’s logic against him is sound, and I’m willing to see what happens and what that means about Fura.

 

Amanuensis

Now become active, which is good to see. Opposed the lynch against Fura, and also has some suspicions of me. I’m not entirely opposed to that, as any suspicion is healthy in this game. I’ll look forward to his reasoning. He was the one to start off the MetaTerminal vote, and recognised that fact, which is fishy but not impossible for a Villager to do. He retains suspicion of me through a second post, which is good to see because it’s not just throwing suspicion out there in the hopes that it forms a lynch. Has doubts about the Drought lynch, at least with the initial suspicions, which is reasonable. He suspects Mark for strange behaviour and for ‘claiming’ in the Warrior doc, which is an odd thing to say but I think that it’s worth waiting to see what Mark says until I decide on anything conclusive for these two.

 

I'd say that Droughtbringer is the best candidate for a lynch. Mark isn't here and Drought's lynch will tell us about Fura, which is very useful.

First chunk of a post that I'll finish tomorrow.

Steeldancer

Has been busy with studying, so there’s not much to read, but last Cycle he made a good point about contextualising posts. He also said that Bard was cleared, and Bard just died. That makes sense if the Elims are targeting people more likely to be construed as Villagers. He voted for Rath in Day 3 following randuir’s vote on Rath, but didn’t provide any context other than the fact that Rath “pointed him at Bard”. Notably, he’s reacted more excitably to the death of Snipexe and BR than most players would. That may just be his personality, but it’s something that I’m going to watch.

 

Randuir

One of the most active players here, which makes it difficult to summarise what he’s been doing and saying. He was the first one to throw a vote on BR which resulted in her lynch. It’s possible that this was a bus because BR was less active and randuir considered it more value to make himself trusted by the Village than have her be replaced by another player. I doubt that, though. Balthamel is powerful, and even when inactive, that role is still usable by the other Elims. I think that alone could clear randuir. He’s also expressed a desire to lynch Drought for placing the final vote on BR, which isn’t unreasonable. Accurately read Bard as Village (in a slightly roundabout way, but a read is a read).

As an aside, it’d be basically impossible to force the Village to lynch randuir, which leaves me with curiosity about why randuir is even still alive. The Elims have killed Xinoehp, Ark, and Bard. All of these were not especially active players like Furari, Karnatheon, and randuir were. So the Elims are either playing this suboptimally or are trying to whittle down inactive players because they’d want a more sporting game. Do more experienced players want to weigh in and list who they think would want that to happen?

 

I'll discuss these players tomorrow: Furamirionind, Karnatheon, Rathmaskal, Droughtbringer, Sart.

Sorry for not posting. I'm super busy all weekend but I might be able to squeeze something out. This week has been a bit of a mess for me, I don't have many things to do but they all seem to take a lot of time. I really should be focusing on this more.

In terms of the flip, I want to go and look more at Young Bard because of that attack on BR, because I want to see if his interactions with her clear him or look like a distancing act. I sided with BR back then because she was the defender but this does bring my initial thoughts into doubt.

Alright, late post. Again, sorry. I accidentally pressed Ctrl+Z halfway through writing this and lost 15 minutes of work, so that's fun. It might be lacking a bit of content that I intended to put in.

 

10 hours ago, randuir said:

Could you explain a bit more about what you meant when you said that you'd become desensitized to lynching inactives?

Sure. In my previous games I've expressed distaste at lynching inactives. I felt like it was killing someone for the crime of quietness, and that it was far more valuable to analyse players who had actually posted a lot, rather than taking shots in the dark against people who had said nothing. Lynching those who have a lot of content means that we can learn more from their deaths and flips, and do better vote analysis of the players who killed them. Killing inactives means that we're almost randomly killing people where there's a higher chance that they'd be Villagers than Elims. I still believe in all of that logic.

However, I also realise that any lynch is better than no lynch, and if there are no suspicions then by lynching active players then not only do you have the same issue of shooting in the dark, you're also reducing your population of the few people who are talking, which is probably better for the Elims. I used the word "desensitised" because I no longer mind as much, but it's mostly because I see that there is more benefit to it than forcing people to lynch active people, which just muddies the waters.

 

10 hours ago, randuir said:

Furami (neutral)

Quote

I think it unlikely they just roled a d20 and picked someone on that roll.

That's a rather specific thing to say, especially because it wouldn't be all that bad a tactic for denying the village useful information from your choice of kills  

IN all seriousness though, I'm starting to grow some doubts about them. They've voted for Droughtbringer twice, someone that at the time of his second vote still only had 1 no-info post. That was a fairly safe place for an elim to park their vote without risking either discussion or being on a mis-lynch as a lynch against a fully inactive was fairly unlikely to take off. He also made a fairly good case against me, but then didn't follow up this turn and I don't really see why he decided to pick doctor for his vote instead of me.

On the other side of the scale there's his heavy investment in doing all the math around the rings and theorycrafting the best orders for defense, which certainly makes him look like he's heavily invested in the game, but ti doesn't really help us find elims.

I'm going to keep an eye on him for now, but I'm not really feeling as good about him as I did earlier in the game.

6 hours ago, Ookla the Cited said:

Fura (slightly elim)

The double vote on Drought seems... odd. If someone doesn’t respond to an initial pokevote, then it’s very unlikely that they’ll respond to a second, so if you were trying to incite discussion you’d probably be much better in spreading your pokevote around. In addition to that, doing maths analysis about the rings in order to disguise a lack of opinions and activity seems to me like a Fura!Elim ploy, especially with so little player activity otherwise. It also strikes me as odd (although I may be unnecessarily extrapolating here) that the first elim kill was on a player that was doing ring analysis, and thus would be the best equipped to point out any misleading information that Fura hid into their posts (eg overestimating village defences to let our guard down, intentionally miscalculating or drawing wrong conclusions). However, Devotary is usually a solid analysis-based elim kill, so I’m not so sure about that. But I’m leaning a little elim on Fura. (If you could provide some more solid reads on everyone, this would do a little to convince me otherwise.)

I'm starting to lean further to Elim on Fura, although not out of the Neutral zone. I don't believe that the mathematical Ring defence is particularly redeeming, because Elim!Furamirionind may have thought that it would be worth losing the threat of the Eye being destroyed in order to infiltrate the Villagers and be better trusted. I find the Drought vote strange as well.

The justifications against me are...interesting. 

19 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Mr .Doctor I am not so sure about. They were quiet, but they still have done a lot of analysis the first 1.5 cycles... This would (I think) have been a good time to kill them.  Therefore, some investigation of Mr. Doctor's post are, I think, in order.  I will try to do that if someone doesnt beat me to it.

7 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I think the obvious choice to kill was Mr. Docter due to his absence yesturday.  Karn had a chance of being lynched, and I was tunneling on you, so killing the three of us would probably be a bad idea. Mr. Doctor showed his skill in analysis is previous posts, and leaving those people alive, I have recently learned, is often dangerous.

I don't think village!Mr. Doctor had a use for the elims, unless you are one and wish to hide behind him.  But as Karn seems to trust you, you probably wouldn't need Mr Doctor.

I feel like distrusting a player because they seem analytical and yet are still alive is a good enough reason. But note that randuir has been more analytical and active than me (and, I think, is a more dangerous player to the Elims) and is also still alive. I'm not saying that randuir is suspicious, but I would say that I am in a similar boat to him. I find that killing a player with a lot of analysis and opinions is often dangerous, because people have a tendency to consider why someone was killed (see Snipexe's post about Devotary's death) and look at who they suspected. The best strategy, I believe, is to wait until the player has stopped talking about your teammates, and then kill them and hope that no one looks back at who they suspected a Cycle or two ago.

I don't think that the suspicions from this post are especially unreasonable, but I do disagree with them to some extent.

6 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Umm... are you saying here you think it is more likely that I am a villager than Karn, as you didnt say you are putting me on your watchlist? Thinking about this, this could be more of a test on me, but as I d oknt know that, this still looks weird to me.

"Watchlist" is a pretty frivolous term that find myself using to say that I'm going to be watching a player more than I was. I read Karnatheon as more Village than you, yes, but I trusted him more at the start and less now, so I'm going to be watching closer for slip ups.

This is a weird way of me saying that a Villager would be analysing the Rings in order to help the Village, and an Elim would do it to make the Village trust and rely on them, making people subconsciously less likely to consider them for a lynch. Don't take the wording especially seriously, because I like to have fun with words and sometimes meaning is lost. Does that clear it up?

7 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

"I wouldn't put it past Fura to be sneaky enough to make us all rely on them with that Ring analysis only to be playing us the whole time. But other than that possibility, everything else reads Village".  - I have never played an SE game with you, in LG50 I didnt do particularly well, and in LG49 it was completely differant.  What instinct is telling you that this all could be a con? And more importantly, if you think this could all be a con, why do you have me the most trustworthy of your list?  I just started targeting you, and I read this as though it could be a pocket attempt to try to get me off your back.

I like to believe that everyone is sneakier than they appear. You're insightful and intelligent, so it's entirely reasonable that you could be fooling us all. I did so well in LG46 because people didn't believe that I could be as sneaky as I was, because I barely knew how to play and they had never met me before, unlike players who are notoriously sneaky. New and unfamiliar players are especially like that for me, which is how I feel about both you and Karnatheon.

 

6 hours ago, Ookla of the East said:

I'm intrigued by this vote on Mr. Doctor. Fura states this is a poke vote, but this is D3. Is this really the time for poke votes? I understand that Mark IV had some confusion with votes last Night, but this vote still leaves something to be desired. 

Several of Fura's votes have been pokes, or appear to be, which I agree is odd. However, as he says he does have some actual suspicions of me beyond poking.

I agree with randuir, it should be easy enough to state suspicion of Furamirionind given his number of posts. 

4 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

14 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

Just at a guess I feel that one of these players is an Elim, although judging purely by activity and what stands out, Steel has been on just enough to make a post a day and in theory put in a kill action and have some activity in his doc(s). BR is in a similar boat, although with more posts.

I feel applies to Ark as well. So a combination of everything still gives me that gut feeling.

Hmmm I was thinking this as you pointed it out. Additionally, a short one-line vote post doesn't look great for him.

 

I think that it's better to vote for MetaTerminal than Furamirionind, if only because the latter has more posts and more to give (and more than I can analyse in a short space of time). 

In the interests of solidifying the vote, MetaTerminal / Ookla the Cited.

Apologies for my inactivity last Night. I was doing job applications and had some other IRL stuff come up.

I'll be heading to bed soon (watch me stay up for 3 hours making this post), but for now my thoughts are that Karnatheon is probably not an Elim based on how it would be a ridiculous gambit to focus on killing someone a simple Fal Dara warrior.

Thoughts on some of the active players. Others and more detail coming when I wake up.

randuir - Infuriatingly neutral

Still pretty neutral. I find it odd that he supported the lynch against Snipexe (and voted on him earlier in the game) but then didn't vote when the lynch came around. He has provided some justification for this, but not all that much. I don't really see why an Elim would do that, though, unless they wanted any voting pattern analysis to look better if the analyser didn't look too hard at the context of the votes. The less Villagers you lynch, the better you look. Hmm, I'll think about that more. For now, randuir is pretty Village-neutral.

Karnatheon - Village, on the watchlist

I'm not going to trust him all that much, but that push just didn't seem realistic for an Elim. Too much risk for the reward of potentially getting Rand al'Thor, or just getting a Villager. It feels genuine, and the reasoning was still relatively sound. He seems mostly Village, but still earns a place to be watched thoroughly.

Furamirionind - Village

Remains one of the more Village-y players in the game, at least from tone and consistency. I think that trying to appear helpful through providing a bunch of analysis of the Rings (even if it's actual genuine help) is a good way to appear trusted. But a Villager would be doing this at least as much as an Elim, just for different reasons, so NAI. I wouldn't put it past Fura to be sneaky enough to make us all rely on them with that Ring analysis only to be playing us the whole time. But other than that possibility, everything else reads Village.

Mark IV - Neutral

A lot of the analysis he's provided has been gut-reads, which is not especially egregious, but some more solid opinions will tell me more. The claim about Snipexe being in the Fal Dara doc was helpful for information, certainly, but it also meant that Snipexe would be lynched based on what I had said. If Mark had kept quiet, the vote may have been more random and therefore potentially hit an Elim instead, especially since votes can get negated more easily in this game. Of course, this is a bit of a stretch, and objectively I think that I'd be much more suspicious in that circumstance than Mark, so others can make of that what they will. For now, neutral.

Rathmaskal - Also neutral

I'll admit that his vote on BrightnessRadiant looked a bit weak since he took it off pretty quickly, but he did say that it was a gut read, and if he was trying to start a bandwagon then BR was not the person to start it on. He was having some bad feelings about Karnatheon in Day Two, so I'd like to know more about that @Rathmaskal. I would like to see more content from him, as randuir has also said. Currently the worst things that he's done is vote for Snipexe and not provide many posts, so that's not enough to move me.

 

Just at a guess I feel that one of these players is an Elim, although judging purely by activity and what stands out, Steel has been on just enough to make a post a day and in theory put in a kill action and have some activity in his doc(s). BR is in a similar boat, although with more posts. Steel's vote on Bard was pretty insubstantial and he would have known that, so given my opinion of Bard, if they're both Elims then it could have been distancing. But this is pretty baseless conjecture that I'm throwing out there for anyone to take up, and I'll build on it when I read those players in a bit more detail.

 

That's all I have time for tonight. I'll post tomorrow, and try to be more active going forwards. I most likely will have the time in the next few days. Again, apologies for my quietness.

Just now, Mark IV said:

5 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Antor snorted and a hint of a smile moved behind his beard.

"I would sooner trust a butcher. At least he would know his way better around a bonesaw than one of yours."

"What splendid coincidence!" Lars said with a gleam in his eye. "Astoril was a butcher before he decided to apprentice to a surgeon!" 
Spinning around to his hand-servants, Lars motioned them to book an appointment for Antor. "Tell Astoril to make double the preparations! We're having a brain celebration!" 
Lars turned to face Antor again "I'm so glad you decided to change your mind."

Antor fixed the grinning nobleman with a look that had made kings quail and tightened his grip on the sword.

1 minute ago, Mark IV said:

4 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Antor Vadenfort hefted his sword. "That sounds far too costly. I have a better solution right here."

Lars lifted his hand against the sword. "You dare doubt my belief in modern medicine? Tairen surgeons are the best in the world. As it happens, I have one in my retinue. Would you like to me to schedule one for you too?"

Antor snorted and a hint of a smile moved behind his beard.

"I would sooner trust a butcher. At least he would know his way better around a bonesaw than one of yours."

Just now, Mark IV said:

2 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Remember to keep an open mind.

Scheduling my brain surgery right this minute!

Antor Vadenfort hefted his sword. "That sounds far too costly. I have a better solution right here."

Votes:

Droughtbringer(1): Furamirionind.

Rathmaskal(1): Randuir.

Young Bard(1): Steeldancer.

Xino(1): Ark.

Snipexe(4): Karnatheon, Mr Doctor, BrightnessRadiant, Rathmaskal.

Karnatheon(1): Snipexe.

5 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

12 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Knowing he is Fal Dara still doesn't prove anything about his alignment. Rand, village, elim, or Forsaken could all be in there.

Yeah. I'm actually wishing he does get . lynched. It would clear up D1 to some extent too. As it stands, we basically don't know the results of D1 yet

Does that mean you'll vote?

 

Bleh. I guess my suspicions of Bard can wait until I hear more from him. This might come back to bite me, but it's worth it to get an Elim or identify Karnatheon.

Young Bard / Ookla the Unprepared. Snipexe / Ookla the Skeptical

 

Votes:

Droughtbringer(1): Furaminoid.

Rathmaskal(2): Randuir, BrightnessRadiant.

Young Bard(1): Steeldancer.

Xino(1): Ark

BrightnessRadiant(1): Rath

Snipexe(2): Karnatheon, Mr Doctor.

Karnatheon(1): Snipexe

Just now, Mark IV said:

Mark here. I know this is a little late but Snip is part of the Fal Dara Doc. I can confirm.

Good to know. 

Just now, Ookla the Ring said:

Knowing he is Fal Dara still doesn't prove anything about his alignment. Rand, village, elim, or Forsaken could all be in there.

It doesn't guarantee anything, but it makes it less likely that you're an Elim sacrificing yourself to lynch Rand. If he wasn't in that doc, he would either be Aginor or Rand, and that's a 50/50 that I'm not sure I want to take. Given how much you pushed for it, it made me suspicious, but now that I know that he could be a Fal Dara Elim, I'm more tempted to vote for him.

If he flips Village, then you would be the highest candidate for an Elim.

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

@Mr Doctor I believe that Rand!Snipexe would still die to Padan Fain. The order of operations listed in the rules doc has Fain going before Green man. And Fifth has stated that if someone is dead before protected, the protection fizzles. I think?

Hmmm that's a good point. Depending on the clarification, I might change my vote.

Note: A lot of this post is just responses, and I think that the discussion about Karnatheon’s vote at the end is very pertinent and I want opinions on it. If you don’t have the time to read all of this post and respond to it, read that at least.

 

18 hours ago, Mark IV said:

I don't see why the elims might want to kill Mat, given that Mat wouldn't know whom to trust. It's be easier to manipulate the village if the elims did have a hold of the village's sole PM maker. I don't think they'd waste that chance. 

This part of the post reads slightly elim-ey to me, given that you, karnatheon, have made relatively good observations thus far. I'd not expect your say something like that without thinking it through. 

Of course, it could be an honest mistake too. Who knows?

Karnatheon is sounding a lot like I did in my first Elim game, which is being helpful and active. However, the reason why that strategy works is because it’s what an earnest Villager would do. I’ll keep an eye on it.

 

14 hours ago, randuir said:

I agree with Mark that it would be very unlikely for the elims to kill Mat if he PM'd one of them. Manipulating him (and by extension, the rest of his network) through the PM is far more useful. I don't necessarily think it's suspicious for Karnatheon to state this as he is a fairly new player, unless Karnatheon is the one that was contacted by Mat, or we find out that Mat's first contact was an elim (int that case, I'd be willing to lynch Karnatheon for that comment).

I’m inclined to agree. Mat has no powers that are particularly powerful beyond his information, and that can be bent to the Elims. The Elims can keep him around until he’s outlived his usefulness and then get rid of him whenever they want.

 

13 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I didn't realise me saying the elims would want to kill Mat would be so controversial. I guess I had been thinking about it more from a perspective of assuming the elims would want to kill people with special roles first. I know that if I was Mat and pm'd someone, and didn't die that night, I would be inclined to believe they were village.

I disagree with this, but don’t find it all that suspicious of you. The special roles are higher than vanilla Villagers, but in this game even vanillas have powers, so the offset isn’t as great. The instinct to kill anyone with power is strong, but if the Elims can manipulate Mat into revealing other roles then it’s definitely worth keeping him around.

 

The interaction between Karnatheon and randuir makes me think that they probably aren’t in a trusted doc together, because a newer player would feel more comfortable discussing what they should and shouldn’t do behind closed doors, so to speak. This doesn’t feel especially staged, so it’s probably not a coordination. So that means to me that of randuir and Karnatheon, only one of them is likely to be an Elim.

 

10 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

So I will be doing a more in depth analysis later, but just to get some discussion going, I'm going to be voting for  Kidpen/Ookla the Dragon Reborn/Ark1002. Unfortunately I don't see the button to change text color on mobile, so it technically won't count as a vote right now but at least gets my thoughts out there. 

As I stated on D1, I know Ark to be a very active member on the Shard. He has been at least somewhat active on other parts of the forum since the game has started. He has posted only two or three times in thread, with almost no discussion or contribution in those posts. I suspect he is probably more active than we know of, but that he is an elim and is active in their doc specifically. He may also be active in other docs but that seems less relevant. This is more of a gut feeling, with little to no evidence, since he has posted almost nothing like I said. With 12 hours left this turn(I believe), people should have plenty of time to debate this and refute it. As opposed to D1 where I made these points in the last hour of the turn.

9 hours ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

Ark1002

Justification: I agree with Karn in that he has only made essentially made posts that provide no real content.

There’s also the fact that he completely ignored his poke vote. It’s almost as if he knows he’s not in danger from the lynch

Reasonable suspicions, but make sure that you don’t bandwagon and don’t vote off him if he justifies himself. I do find Snipexe's last sentence a bit weird as far as tone goes.

However, as a counterpoint, wouldn’t it make more sense to vote for a complete inactive rather than someone who might be active later on?

 

9 hours ago, randuir said:

Karnatheon (slight village)

I'm still leaning village on Karatheon. A lot of his posts suggest 'observant new player' to me. He's made some good points and is generally involved in analysis, though he's focused mostly on the rules so far. That's fine in a game like this, but I expect him to start looking more at people soon. I've mentioned one of his first posts before as looking really village, and some of his posts to day feel similar to me. In particular I'd have expected his responses today to have been more calm and emasured if he actually ahd the safety net of an active elim team to back him up

I’m inclined to agree about this (hmm I seem to do that a lot with you), and I’m holding off any particularly strong analysis on him until I see him discuss people, because it’s much easier to spot an Elim when they’re analysing and accusing than when they’re thinking about rules. I think that we should keep in mind that if Karn has been suggesting rules discussion, that should be questioned if he turns out to be an Elim. With rules as complicated as these, it would be pretty easy to manipulate the people who are just going along with what others say.

 

9 hours ago, randuir said:

Mr Doctor (neutral)

 Good activity as usual from our Not-Dragon-Reborn Doctor. Believes that there are less more Elims than what Furami and I have theorised, which only stands out to me because in my (very few) Elim games I like to make the Village underestimate the number of Elims. So far he’s been helpful, but he’s like that even when he’s evil. For now I’ll give randuir Doctor a free pass because he’s hard to read and always helpful.

(all kidding aside, I've seen mr Doctor at work in his first game in which he and I where both elims. He's at least as sneaky as he'd have you believe I am)

Heh, that made me chuckle.

 

6 hours ago, Callsign: Jato said:

For now, I am going to keep pressing my vote from last cycle. I may change it after analyzing, but until he says more, my initial suspicion stands.

DroughtBringer

@Droughtbringer

(I will probably work out another sequence of how I think we should progress through the rings again today [unless someone beats me to it], but in the mean time, err on the side of keeping the ring alive.  This ring should be decently forgiving due the the amount of players we have.)

Lynching an inactive isn’t a terrible thing as far as I’m concerned. I used to hate it, but I’ve sort of become desensitised I guess.

 

5 hours ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

This post is primarily focused on how the barrier distribution will work out. The most important thing they talk about (in my opinion) is that this game will last till night 8 at the latest. In order to win, in the next 7 (counting today) we need to lynch or kill 5 elims (6 counting Aginor’s Hardy). So as far as I can tell, we have 1 more mislynch, assuming Rand is not able to kill any Forsaken when he can channel. 

I can’t think of any reason why Devotary would be killed for this post or why it would raise the elim’s ire

I don’t disagree. Of the players doing heavy maths, Devotary was possible one of the more experienced, which may justify a kill. Or perhaps she simply gives off a Village tone.

 

@Ookla the Skeptical

Thanks for the analysis! It’s useful to see something breaking down people’s posts and trying to find reasons. Personally, I feel that Devotary is a pretty good and analytical player who naturally gives off a Village tone, and so the Elims would have a hard time framing her, especially since there aren’t as many lynches to go off of and voting patterns are easier to poke holes in. As a contrast to randuir, who is also analytical and helpful, but is far more neutral and so harder to read. It then makes some sense that she died. [[[Tag snip]]] what do you think of that? It might also be worth going through who she interacted with and finding connections that way.

 

4 hours ago, Ookla the White-Cloaked said:

5 hours ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

Edit: @Ookla the White-Cloaked Does redirecting a defense action do anything?

It can be redirected. Whether or not it will do anything, PAFO. 

This makes me wonder if you can protect someone from a kill by Defending them. I don’t offer myself as a test subject, though

 

@Callsign: Jato

Gotcha about the Ring defence. Thanks for breaking this down, provided that you’re not trying to manipulate us to an early Eye of the World destruction.

 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Positive said:

OK, I went back to the night and found the post that made me suspicious. It was Young Bard's post, but now I just realized that it reads as suspicious because its in character. sigh. But at the moment I don't really have much else- I haven't been paying enough attention to know if that was purposeful, or whatnot, but I'm going to vote Young Bard.

I didn’t like Bard’s position because he attacked BR pretty suddenly and his RP hid a lot of what could be gleaned from it. And he’s been quiet ever since then. Lynching him would give us a bearing on BR, so I’m inclined to join you in this. I’ll see, though.

 

54 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

-So, despite typically being a math person, I actually haven't gone through and done all the math that other people have done regarding blight turns and how long we have before the game would just automatically end, but because there is a timer and people are thinking that it could be as soon as 8 cycles that the blight fully overtakes the eye, I'm going to just throw out there that I doubt there are 5 elims.  We'd almost be at LYLO at this point if that were the case (assuming the other math is correct).  *"queue, but an elim would say something like that to make everyone else underestimate the number of elims"*

I think that this makes a lot of sense. It makes me wonder if there aren’t actually any Agents of the Blight, but in that case there’s an entire mechanic (Sabotage and the last Ring of the Eye) that’s unused. This might also be reasonable because Fifth said that 20 players was the rough number to play at its fullest, which could either mean that it’s the lowest number that gets all of the unique roles for flavour (i.e. 3 Elims for the 3 book characters), or the lowest number for all of the mechanics (i.e. 1 of each Elim type).

 

45 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Ark1002/Kidpen/Ookla the Dragon Reborn Snipexe/Ookla the Skeptical

Now let me explain. I don't feel any less suspicious of Ark, I'm simply more suspicious of Snipexe. Padan Fain could have killed Snipexe last night. As Fifth said in his rulings/clarification compilation in the N1 thread, if Padan Fain uses his Shadow Within on a Hardy player who has already lost a life, that player dies. So if Padan Fain had done that, Snipexe would have died. Let me list the likely reasons that didn't happen.

Some really good points in here, and an excellent post for a new player. Well done!

I’ll talk about Snipexe because that’s the most pertinent issue, but I’ll want to respond to the rest if I have time.

Firstly, I disagree that Padan Fain would expect someone to come to your conclusion. That seems unlikely for an Elim to trust the Village to do their dirty work without a bit of prodding. The only person who’s mentioned that is you, and by drawing attention to it you’re either genuine, or you’re trying to seem TWTBAW (too wolfy to be a wolf). I don’t think that this is especially likely.

I agree that Fain would at least know that they can do this, because they would be paying attention to what their role could do. However, we have several inactives in this game and any of them could be Fain, so that possibility has gone down in my mind. I also think that Fain does exist, for what it’s worth.

The reason that I agree with it is because I think that you’re either a very valuable player to the Village, or a very dangerous one. And I think that the reasonings against Snipexe are better than those against anyone else, other than maybe Bard, even though they aren’t particularly strong. Since you’re one of the most active players in this game, I’d want to test your alignment and judgement over BR’s or Steel’s.

 

If I’m wrong about Snipexe, then I think that Karnatheon is likely to be an Elim. I doubt that they can do that much analysis and be that insightful and be so adamant about this, and yet be completely misguided. But I don’t think that they’d be willing to put their neck so far if they were an Elim, unless they think that they’re taking down Rand (no, not that Rand. Rand al’Thor).

 

Hmmm… Actually, I don’t think that I’ll vote for Snipexe. If the Elims know that he’s Hardy and have someone in the Fal Dara doc and know that he’s not in there, then they know that he’s Rand, and therefore the largest remaining threat to them. And the reason why Rand!Snipexe isn’t dead is because the Green Man can protect him every Night, saving him from Fain, assuming that’s how protection works.

@Ookla the Ring what do you think of that?

 

I think I’ll put my vote on Young Bard for now, because of his tone-hiding and mostly unjustified attack on BR. I’m also testing BR and Steel with this vote.

 

If someone from the Fal Dara doc claims that Snipexe is in there, then I’ll listen closer to Karnatheon. Until then, this suddenly looks a lot like the Elims potentially trading Karnatheon for Rand.

Okay, looking back through Snipexe's posts, I find that his tone has been a bit odd in places. His analysis of Devotary doesn't conclude much, which could mean that either he's trying to reduce the amount of analysis on a kill or there actually isn't anything to see.

Now, if Snipexe dies and flips Elim, then it clears Karnatheon, which in turn clears randuir somewhat because of the amount that they've interacted in-thread.

If Snipexe dies and flips Village, then Karnatheon was probably an Elim trying to kill Rand al'Thor. However, in this case, it might make it seem like randuir was an Elim because of a potentially staged discussion about misunderstanding and forgiveness. I know that this contradicts what I said earlier about that discussion, but that's because this has really thrown everything that I thought out the window.

 

Hmm, I'm still not sure about my vote. @Ookla the Unprepared if you're here, my mind might change with some justification.

I feel like Fura has some good thoughts about the defence of the Eye. So, if I have this right:

N1 - Hold Ring 1, Blight attacks for 5

D2 - Hold Ring 1, Blight attacks for 7

N2 - Allow Ring 2 and 3 to fall, Blight attacks for 9. Breaks through Ring 1 (8 damage left), Ring 2 (6 damage left), Ring 3 (3 damage left)

So on Night 2 we need 3 people to Defend the Eye so that we can hold Ring 4.

@Callsign: Jato does that sound right?

 

Sorry I haven't been able to say much this Cycle. I've been busy all day. I've been reading the thread off and on.

My current reads are that Karnatheon / Ookla the Ring is closer to Village. He's been very helpful and seems quite genuine with his reads. However, that also makes me suspicious, because I came off very similar in my first game and was trusted until the end, and yet I was an Elim. So I'll be keeping an eye on him.

 

6 hours ago, Ookla the Heretical said:

8 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

How can they prove they are a Fal Dara warrior? No one can vouch for them because the docs are all anonymous.

Snipexe would claim in the Fal Dara doc and reveal his identity there. If Snipexe is Aginor and not in the Fal Dara doc(and thus cannot claim in-doc), then a teammate would have to spend the rest of the game pretending to be Snipexe in the doc, which I believe would be unsustainable.

I agree with Devotary / Ookla the Heretical about Snipexe. I'm tempted to believe that he's in the Fal Dara doc, which doesn't tell me a huge amount, but it's something to note.

 

I don't like Young Bard's / Ookla the Unprepared's suspicions of BR, because I don't see anything wrong with her justifications and it's entirely reasonable to be unsure about the rules. If she suddenly gains some understanding of the rules (or if anyone does for that matter) then it might be a sign that they're in a doc and are getting advice from people. Bard's decision to also purely RP doesn't seem very good because it might hide tone and intent, making it harder to analyse. On its own I wouldn't say that this is too bad, but looking at it in conjunction with that accusation makes me unsure of him. @Ookla the Unprepared are your thoughts changing with BR's reasons?

 

That's all I really have time for, sorry. Just some surface-level thoughts. I'm happy to answer questions, and these aren't especially solid suspicions.

41 minutes ago, Ookla the Cited said:

No reason; I missed it. I also didn't read through signups if Bard claimed there. That is a reasonable explanation for their post; although I'd like to hear more from both. And in absence of any particular non-random suspicious candidates (I don't find any problems with Doctor's reads at this stage), I won't be changing my vote, unless anyone has objections to that.

That's reasonable. I'm not against your vote since Bard hasn't said anything much yet. Day One lynches can't really be based on much.

 

10 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

SnipExe(Ookla the Skeptical) 

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

My only thought was that it might have been notable that Snipexe pointed out how lynches are very affected by random chance. Don't know if an Elim would want to reveal that they know this if it would save them later on. Yeah, I don't really have enough to commit to that vote, but I don't really have a problem with it.

 

31 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Mr Doctor: I thought the number of players was planned at 20? @Mr Doctor @Ookla the White-Cloaked was it not? Also, secret roles, hissssss.

Ah, I forgot. Fifth's exact words were that 20 was the rough estimate to play this game to its fullest but there could have been more.

 

Quick vote tally, may have made a mistake

Votes:

Young Bard/Ookla the Unprepared (1) - MetaTerminal/Ookla the Cited

Snipexe/Ookla the Skeptical (3) - randuir, BrightnessRadiant, Karnatheon/Ookla the Ring

DroughtBringer (1) - Furamirionind

Okay, I’ve spent some time spreadsheeting and I’m ready to start reading too much into people’s actions.

 

I’ll give my thoughts on everyone who’s posted so far.

Steeldancer/Ookla the Positive – Has stated that he’s not going to be active and has no idea who to vote for. Fair enough, I’m not sure either.

randuir – Good activity as usual from our Not-Dragon-Reborn. Believes that there are less Elims than what Furami and I have theorised, which only stands out to me because in my (very few) Elim games I like to make the Village underestimate the number of Elims. So far he’s been helpful, but he’s like that even when he’s evil. For now I’ll give randuir a free pass because he’s hard to read and always helpful.

Karnatheon/Ookla the Ring – Has got very good activity for their first game of SE. They’ve been thinking about how to identify players (specifically Lan), which is notable, and analysing the rules. Good to see activity in a new player, but it’s been a sign of an Elim in the past. However, having them ask questions like that in the thread means that they may not have a doc to talk in where they trust everyone (i.e. Elim doc). That’s not much to go on, but I trust Karnatheon for now.

CadCom – Admitted low activity for the first few days. Nothing much to read here.

DroughtBringer – Not much to see here. First player to post, but nothing else to read.

Xino/Ookla the Phoenix – Checked in with a single sentence. I’m curious as to why MetaTerminal would go after Bard instead of Xino since their input is about the same so far. Also, I can't believe I didn't realise that your name was very close to being "phoenix" backwards.

Rathmaskal – Hasn’t said much about the game, but it’s a relatively standard check in. I agree with Karnatheon that some comments on the game would be nice, but I expect that of everyone. Poked Xino, but this seems to be more of a joke than anything else.

Devotary of Spontaneity/Ookla the Heretical – The face-stealer herself. Has done some good maths on the Rings, but I didn’t really understand the discussion about counting the number of players in the docs. @Ookla the Heretical what did you mean in this post about the numbers of Villagers? Nothing overly suspicious to read here.

Young Bard – One small RP post to check in. I would like to hear something before the end of the Cycle.

Snipexe/Ookla the Skeptical – Checking in, interested in vote negation and how that makes the lynches less deterministic. Interesting point, but nothing else to read for me.

Furamirionind – One day I’ll spell your name right on the first try. Very good detailed post about the mathematics of the rules, and thanks for keeping that up. I think some analysis of the people will still be good to help determine your alignment, however.

Hemalurgic Headshot – Checked in just before I posted. Nothing much to read, other than the NAI late appearance.

STINK – Broken computers suck. Not much to read here.

MetaTerminal/Ookla the Cited – I wasn’t sure how much I like the vote on Bard, but it does make some sense. However, Xino did pretty much the same and only when poked, so I’ll be interested as to why Meta chose Bard over Xino.

BrightnessRadiant – Is going to be busy with life stuff during the game and prefers reading people to rules. This is reasonable, I think, and given the complicated rules some player analysis will be welcome. Nothing suspicious here yet.

We still have four people left to check in. So far I don't really suspect anyone, but I have some things to watch for in the future that may yield more results.

 

@BrightnessRadiant I think that Snipexe’s post was interesting because it showed that he’s thinking about how the lynch can be a bit non-deterministic. The solution to that is piling votes on people, which is probably better for the Elims than the Village because it makes it harder to distinguish between an Elim securing a kill and a Villager trying to prevent randomness from losing them the lynch. A strategy I’ve seen to identify Elims is seeing how early or late they vote on someone, but this may defeat that. I wonder if Snipexe thought of that, which may be why he made the post.

 

5 hours ago, randuir said:

Furami, mr. doctor and Devotary both started with doing some math regarding the attack on the eye. This is fairly NAI, but it's good to see them invest time and effort, and if that continues their alignment should become clearer as the game progresses, so I don't want to vote on either right now. Mr. Doctor in particular has a track record of being sneaky as an elim, so I'll keep an eye on him.

Who, me? I’ve never done anything unscrupulous in my life! Just ask @Ookla the Rogue.

 

Votes:

Young Bard/Ookla the Unprepared (1) - MetaTerminal/Ookla the Cited

Snipexe/Ookla the Skeptical (1) - randuir

Hello everyone!

For my own curiosity I’m going to count the number of unique to non-unique roles.

Village

1 – Rand al’Thor

2 – Mat Cauthon

3 – Perin Aybara

4 – al’Lan Mandragoran

5 – Moiraine Sedai

6 – Loial

7 – Green Man

Elim

8 – Aginor

9 – Balthamel

10 – Padan Fain

That leaves us with 10 non-unique roles, which is interesting because it’s exactly half of our players despite that number not being planned. I wonder if balance has been tweaked because of that. @Furamirionind I’m inclined to agree about the number of Elims, because 5 seems like a nice number for the roles and players. I also think that there probably aren't any secret roles because that would just be too many roles. Unless we're all somehow ta'veren in which case we might as well roll some dice to see how this game is going to end . But that does make me wonder if being ta'veren has any bearing on the rules, and if there are secret rules to Rand, Mat, and Perrin.

It’s not stated in the rules are that a player couldn’t, for example, be Rand al’Thor, a Fal Dara Warrior, an Emond’s Fielder, and be in Moiraine’s Circle. I’m curious about whether the number of roles for a given player was limited for balance reasons, because even though it's implied that my example is possible (Moiraine could be a part of her own circle), potentially giving someone that many docs and powers seems unbalanced and is a lot to expect of a single player.

 

Also, @Ookla the Heretical, why are you wearing my face ? My profile pic coloured purple, yes, but my profile pic nonetheless. It made me pause and chuckle when I saw it for the first time.

Rollover is 4pm for me so I'll almost always be on for it. But as always with SE, I'll probably be asleep when most people are posting. I'll make big response posts and try and keep up. Good luck and have fun!

Antor Vadenfort slid the whetstone down the blade of his sword again and sighted his eye down the length of the weapon. The light that caught the shimmering edge told him that the sword could have been used to trim a lord's nose hairs, as an old friend used to tell him. A sad smile touched Antor's lips.

He stepped over to the shivering Jancey and crouched down beside him, the shimmering cloak around the Warder’s shoulders pooling on the ground.

“Tell me, boy,” he said in a quiet voice that was muffled through the thick beard on his face, “have you ever had anything to fight for?”

The Warder was not tall in stature, but he had a weight to his presence that would have many turning their heads to listen. There was a worldliness to him that spoke more than age, although those greying hairs yet lean frame did not give any hint as to his years.

I'm in, if there's room. I'll be Antor Vadenfort, a Warder whose Aes Sedai died long ago.

Sabien Ash strode through the magnificent hallways of the Grand Peacock, his polished shoes clicking on the floor. Excellent shoes, they were, made of a smooth leather that really did not look like it had been made from a cow…

The tall, thin man saw a police officer standing at the end of the hallway and called out.

“My good man, would you mind opening the door?”

Private Periwinkle glared at him in response. “Not your servant, mate.”

Sabien Ash smiled toothily. “I wouldn’t want to injure myself, because those doors look heavy and I’ve never had the greatest of physiques. You have far more meat on your bones.”

Periwinkle looked down at himself and then up at Sabien as the tall man in the maroon suit approached. “Why should I care?” the policeman asked.

Sabien grinned down at the man, standing a little too close and breathing in deeply through his long nose.

“Because your Chief would hardly want to hear that a man of my…prestige…was injured under your watch,” Sabien said. “She’s already dealing with the unfortunate deaths of several guests, and for a prominent businessman to be slighted by the police…unheard of!”

Periwinkle frowned. “I don’t think the Chief cares much about you, creep.”

Sabien smirked. “My blue friend, your Chief and I have a wondrous history that we simply must tell you about sometime over dinner. Perhaps I’ll invite you around to see my décor! The house can be…captivating.”

Periwinkle felt a trickle of dread down his spine that he could not quite describe. “Uh. Alright…?”

Sabien’s smile grew wolfish. “Be a good man and open the door.”

The police officer moved smartly to do so, and Sabien strode forth, touching the man on the arm with thin fingers and leaving them there for just long enough to make it feel like he was testing the man’s bicep.

Sabien strode into the kitchen, now cold and dead since the cooks had been interrogated and sent home. A pity, he could have done with some assistance. Supreme Slovenly was passed out in the corner, living up to his name, the light of his mobile illuminating his face.

Sabien tugged off his maroon suit jacket, revealing a black shirt and red waistcoat underneath. With deft fingers he rolled up his sleeves and walked over to the cookers of the kitchen.

“Tell, me Slovenly,” he said, his voice echoing off the pots and pans hanging from their hooks. “What meal befits a queen?”

A slight snore came from the other man in the room.

“Meat, of course,” Sabien mused. “But what kind? A chunky goulash with a sauce rich in spices? A side of steak, seared on the outside so that blood drips when it is cut, with a garlic-potato mash on the side?”

He reached out to a row of knives, shining in the fluorescent lights of the kitchen, and ran his fingers over their handles. “Perhaps something simple. Something with only a few flavours, given enough room to each sing.”

The thin man smiled and tapped his arm with a finger. “Something comfortable, I think.”

He swivelled his head once, to get his bearings, and strode off to the large pantry. He snagged a basket from the side and slung it over his arm, then walked into the room with its walls lined with food.

Sir Sabien hummed a few bars of a song that, had anyone been listening, would have been recognised as the one he had played on the piano before the chandelier had fallen on poor Raven’s head. He picked out a few things here and there, forgoing many of the more expensive and exotic ingredients for simple things. Green peppers, steak, red and white onion. He measured a cup of rice and set it in a microwave to cook.

He returned to the kitchen and pulled a knife from the rack. With practiced ease he began to slice up the meat into little slivers, pausing only to turn on a gas flame under a pan.

Sabien tipped the steak into the pan and began to slice the peppers and onion. “You know, Slovenly,” he said conversationally.

The only reply was the sizzling meat.

“What makes greatness?” Sabien asked. “Status, many say. Wealth, say others. I have both of these things, but am I great? Do people grovel before me when I enter?”

He tested the steak with the point of a knife.

“No. They notice me, but only through shock and flair do they pay me any attention. Greatness is inherent. Greatness comes from within and requires minimal effort to exert.”

Sabien tossed the onions into the pan and grabbed a pepper grinder from the side, then sprinkled a bit over the meat and onions. He then selected a fresh knife and began to slice the peppers.

“It could be said that greatness is made by power,” he said. “Perhaps that is what I’ve been missing: power.”

Sabien tossed the peppers in and closed his eyes, listening to them sizzle and pop with a smile. He then strode to the fridge and selected a jar of jalapenos.

“But the paradox exists, then, that some in power do not have greatness. So we return to our question: what makes greatness, if not power?”

He fished a few of the jalapenos from the jar and tossed them into the pan, then added drizzle of soy sauce from the side, and began to stir it all with a wooden spoon.

“I find that wood is more soothing a material,” the thin man admitted. “Metal utensils, they take the softness away from everything. Cooking, like everything, requires a gentle touch.”

Then he grinned ruefully. “But I can never resist a good knife.”

Sir Sabien took the rice from the microwave and found a gleaming white bowl, then filled it with rice and pepper steak. He held it under his nose and breathed in deeply.

“A meal fit for a queen,” he said, and strode to the door.

Sabien pushed it open. “Periwinkle,” he said.

The police officer jumped in surprise. “Huh? What the…you cooked?”

“I figured someone must be hungry,” the thin man admitted. “Slovenly in there seems to have fallen asleep. Perhaps you could wake him up by taking him to your Chief for a talking-to.”

Perwinkle blinked. “Uh. I’ll have to go and see.”

Sir Sabien Ash grinned widely and held out the bowl of steaming pepper steak and rice with a fork sticking out of it. “Be a good man and take this to her, will you? She’s had a long week.”

19 hours ago, Sart said:

Well, it's painfully obvious that the village has probably lost this game. Still, I'll put a probably symbolic vote on Mr. Doctor, and pray for forgiveness from the Contribution Crusade.

Uh, okay. Any other reasons for voting on me?

 

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Looking at the list of players without known powers, the possible phasers who weren't in the Dining Room last cycle are Droughtbringer, Mr Doctor, and me. One of the former two almost certainly possesses Sart's mobile, probably Droughtbringer seeing as how Mr Doctor apparently forgot about the mobile. Droughtbringer wouldn't be able to phase without losing his mobile, which makes the likeliest scenarios: Mr Doctor is an elim phaser or Megasif was the one to submit the kill. If Mr Doctor was an elim phaser, he easily could have killed someone cycle two, as he was online for rollover and would have been able to target whoever he wanted. That narrows the probable possibilities down to one; that Megasif killed Shqueeves and is thus evil.

I do not have the Mobile, as was pretty obvious. And I haven't done nearly enough moving to be a Phaser, but that's not really provable. 

As for Megasif, I think this makes a decent amount of sense. However, I'm not convinced that it's actually worth it. I'm pretty busy today but I'll have time to put in a vote.

Hi everyone. One assignment down, 3 to go. I finally have more time to be active.

 

I honestly think that the Poison clears Gancho more than it condemns him. He should have known that he would be the only suspect as poisoner last Cycle, since STINK has a Mobile and we haven’t seen anyone have more than one item or power yet. So why would Elim!Gancho poison CadCom now? If the Elims wanted CadCom dead, they could have done it earlier, waited, or just had Elim!Gancho kill him normally. Instead, it’s obvious who poisoned CadCom. Seems like it’s almost a trade of an Elim for a Villager, which seems ridiculous, unless this is currently LyLo. I think that it’s also pretty unbalanced for the Elims to have a Kill item and an Elim-kill.

I think that this demonstrates that Gancho’s use of the Poison doesn’t make sense if he was an Elim. Additionally, Gancho’s reaction reads Village to me.

 

I’m going to write up what powers we’ve seen. I’ll define “powers” as Epic powers or Items.

Accounted For

Poison                         1          Gancho

Knife                           1          Deathclutch

Mobile                        2          STINK, Itiah

Smoke                         2          Elandera, Coop

Vest                             1          Xino

X-Ray                          1          CadCom

Mind Control             1          Snipexe

Steel                            1          Crimsn

Unaccounted For

Gun

Illusion

Phasing

Invisibility

I think that it’s reasonable to assume that there is one of each Epic power, and that everyone has a power or item. Some things (like Smoke) are not so powerful that a bunch of people having them wouldn’t be too powerful. There are 10 items accounted for, and 17 players. If we assume that the Gun, Illusion, Phasing, and Invisibility exist and are unique, then we have 3 duplicates that we don’t know about. I’m guessing that there’s 1 of each Kill power as well, so that means that we have some duplicates of Mobile, Smoke, and Vest.

I know what my item is, so I know a little bit more than this. But I’m not sure if it’s such a good idea to share it.

This means that the Village has one Kill power left in the Gun (I said earlier that I think that all Kill powers are Village), and the Elims almost certainly have at least one Epic power. Anyone have anything to add? Any thoughts on what this means?

 

If I’d had the time, I would have written a program that visualised the movements of every player to show how they correlate to deaths. For now, I agree that there is a link between Kidpen and the Elim kills that isn’t so strong that he’s being obvious.

I won’t vote on him yet, but I likely will later in the Cycle. For now, people who I’d like to hear from are @STINK, @Droughtbringer, and @Sart. The former two have said very little and the latter usually has something good to add to a discussion.

 

Votes

Kidpen (2) - CadCom, Devotary

Shqueeves (1) - Megasif

Gancho Libre (1) - Kidpen