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Elandera

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  1. Elandera
    Well, sorry everyone for yesterday. Until Archer's hop to TBB, I honestly didn't read him as elim. Part of me wonders if that last vote was attempted distancing since his exe was a forgone conclusion. I'm not sure how those were inconsistent arguments. If all conversions were perfect, elim teams would have been full D3. I don't believe they were, considering no new shards broke containment N3. Which would suggest the earliest for full elim teams was D4, hence my argument that D4 was the best statistically for finding an elim, even at random. But please, if my math is wrong, let me know. It's never been a strong suit (re: balance of protection/kills in LG94).
  2. Elandera
    I am. For me to feel comfortable with the rules and my role, it took not just understanding how I could siphon, but what it took to win and stop the elims from winning (best ones to siphon for abilities and the best ones to break from containment early). Because it's a faction game with complicated rules, it's not just "find and exe." LG94 was a good example of needing to understand how your role interacted with the rest of the rules, and I didn't want to make the same mistake as I watched. I don't have time right now to respond to everything, but I just want to say that I don't remember as well as you think I do. I hardly remember GMing e!wiz, let alone his meta for the game. It's why, aside from players I've been around since I started in SE (such as Xino), I have been avoiding making meta reasoning arguments. I am trying to do better and be more actively involved in discussion than I was early game because the last thing I want to do is be a hypocrite after what I said at the end of LG94. I appreciate you bringing up the faults in my arguments. I hadn't meant it to be a CC vote, but I see now that's essentially what it was, regardless of my intent. You do make good points about Wiz's activity. I didn't realize he'd basically disappeared, as I thought I'd remembered seeing him post more often. Also, thank you for pulling up those examples from his past games. Wizard
  3. Elandera
    Not really, but I also don't like exing the ones who prompt village conversation this early and without more reason than "they're good conversion options." It does somewhat, but I can't say until I look more at her D2/3 activity. Also, I would like to point out this list is not "these are the people I want to exe" but "these are the people who fit my idea of the low profile but active enough category." I just read your point D1 about him not understanding the researcher rules being a potential point in him not being one, but my argument is that understanding the researcher role isn't as easy as it looks. It also requires a good basis of understanding of the rest of the rules to really grasp the full potential of a researcher. My reads from Archer N0 and D1 were confused villager more than anything. I also don't think he'd be quite as sloppy as to advertise that ignorance as a solo elim at the start. That's not my only belief. Yes, it's a good pool of potential targets, but some people also convert based on totally non-game-related reasons, such as wanting to be an elim with a certain player because they haven't yet. If the consensus of the game is to exe Archer, by all means, go for it. It would answer a lot of questions and it would finally resolve this question that's been around for so long. But I've seen way too many games that ended poorly because players didn't look beyond initial suspicions. I'm trying to keep options open, especially with the converted are going to be our biggest pool.
  4. Elandera
    Because he was very nearly exed D1 and has been under a consistent level of suspicion since then? If I'm not mistaken, he's been debated/voted on each turn so far, even if it didn't stick. That's a big risk for an elim team wanting to play the IKYK game.
  5. Elandera
    I don't believe it's the correct move, which is why I didn't pick either of you for a vote. It's worth keeping an eye on you both (hence why I put you both on the list with qualifications about profile), but your contributions outweigh those potential dangers right now. Ah. I had forgotten Turtle had admitted to not submitting an action. Also, my mental data for activity is pulling from my read of N0, the first half of D1, and the last half of D3 (the times I've actually paid attention). I remembered Turtle being fairly active in the early game, which is why they landed in the "active enough" category. I would argue that it's difficult to apply this tactic of finding conversions to D1 or D2 due to the low number of conversions at those points, which would take out Sart and Alpha as failures of this. As I stated before, I did not pursue Xino as a convert target, but a OG elim, removing him as well. Last turn was the first potential opportunity for full elim teams, which I don't think actually happened considering the lack of containment breaks. This is the first turn where we likely have all of the converts in place, when we can really be looking at good convert profiles. I don't think Archer fits that, nor does he fit OG elim, hence the suggestion to look elsewhere. Somewhere new. On a player that hasn't been looked at seriously yet, because they'd make a good convert. Yes, there has been some mild attention on Wizard, but nothing (from my memory) that was actually threatening. I just think this constant return to Archer isn't helping anyone. EDIT: To be fair, that is half of the opportunities so far to have a conversion, and 2/3 if all conversions were perfect.
  6. Elandera
    Yes, and no? They had varying levels of activity. I won't pretend to know for sure about Sart. I didn't pay great attention in the early cycles (an error I am working to correct), so I'm not sure what Sart's activity/attention was. The fact he was killed fairly quickly suggests he may have been lacking in the "low profile" category. Xino was floating a little low on the "active enough" scale, but fit the low profile overall. I hadn't been looking at him as a conversion, though, but as an OG elim. And Alpha, I run into the same problem as I do with Sart in regards to he died earlier than I really started to pay attention. Which has utterly disappeared since (as well as Turtle's overall presence...) It would make them a decent late convert, I think. Especially if any of the elim teams weren't successful in their early conversions, as I suggested in my first post this turn. Don't tempt me....
  7. Elandera
    You make a good point about the recent deaths. Maybe it is time to shift the profile of who we're looking into. I'm not sure what you're asking with the highlighted question. Are you asking if I think Wiz fits in that category, or if the other deaths fit in there? Other players that are low profile (not a lot of negative attention and/or attention overall) and active enough (posts consistently enough to have a presence but not make a big impact): Wizard TJ DeTess* Kasimir* Araris Turtle* DeTess and Kas are an odd case because they're more active and influential, but also have avoided basically all negative attention.
  8. Elandera
    Yes, I acknowledge I also fit within this category, but I am trying to do better.
  9. Elandera
    Archer has a good point. He's a terrible conversion target, and I don't really see the evidence of him being elim at the beginning. We're focusing in the wrong places. I'd like to vote Szeth for the N0/D1 reasons I mentioned last cycle, but I can see there isn't likely to be a ton of support there. So instead I turn to potential conversions. Low profile but active enough. Wizard.
  10. Elandera
    I also tried to siphon Mercy last night to steal it from elims, but got RB'd. Makes me wonder if the elims have had more trouble converting than assumed. Otherwise there's no way they shouldn't have broken out a shard last night.
  11. Elandera
    And I definitely see the benefits. It's always that balance of cost and reward, but it should be discussed first. Even the discussion can give us good reference points for suspicions.
  12. Elandera
    I have a similar reaction to this as Archer, but for different reasons. While I am not on Roshar and cannot see what has been discussed there, it seems very odd to just put a bunch of people like that with seemingly no consent. You started by asking the question as if to offer it as an option, then pulled your entire world into it without getting a public response. Worldhopping has benefits, namely making it more difficult for the elims to target you without them staying in Silverlight and making big targets of themselves. Suddenly announcing and tracking where everyone is and where they're going gives all of the elim factions a narrowed field of which worlds to visit to find targets without opening themselves up to being targeted by everyone.
  13. Elandera
    As Kas reminded me, it's the same risk of tie as if you swapped...
  14. Elandera
    It's a well-deserved roasting...
  15. Elandera
    Maths... I forgot to remove my xino vote in my mental calculation. But the larger reason for staying is xino.
  16. Elandera
    I really didn't mean to (especially considering my evisceration of the practice at the end of LG91), but TotK...
  17. Elandera
    It's past time for me to contribute more than gut reads and vague ideas. I'm going through the thread from N0 and writing various notes about different players that catches my attention. Kasimir Szeth TJ DeTess Archer Xino DrakeMarshall Random thoughts as I read the rules more carefully: If Hoid has successfuly converted someone each night turn, and that team only started with Hoid, tonight is the first night they'll be able to get a shard out with just members of the team. This means if there are any shards we don't want in their control, we really need to coordinate tonight to get a lot of people to target it and reduce the chances it'll go to elims. It's likely that the non-17th Shard factions started with only the named role, allowing their numbers to get up to 9 in total (nearly half the players). Autonomous might be different, since they don't have converts and the avatars are a little more vulnerable. Returned are more dangerous towards the endgame, so saving Mercy's ability to bring people back at lylo is a problem in elim hands. I got maybe halfway into D1, but I don't want to get lost in time and miss actually posting this. Szeth is giving me sketchy vibes, but I'm not about to try to tie things up, and I'm still satisified with a xino exe for reasons I've stated before. Vote Count: Szeth_Pancakes (4): The Bald Brandon, Araris Valerian, Archer, Wizard Araris Valerian (3): Fifth Scholar, DeTess xinoeph512 (5): Elandera, Kasimir, TJ, Matrim, Szeth
  18. Elandera
    I'll go ahead and vote Xino again. I agree with Mat that some of the questions should be resolved, and my biggest question (and suspicion) is Xino.
  19. Elandera
    I find this flag odd. I've had Xino as an exe target for less than a cycle. How is that not branching out? Is it because I haven't posted a reads list or chimed in on the circular arguments about the same three players? Edit: That sounded more aggressive than I meant it. What I meant was that I simply haven't seen much I felt the need to comment on because it had already been said (usually more than once).
  20. Elandera
    It was partly a stab vote to prompt action, and partly a gut read. I've watched e!xino often enough and was picking up similar patterns and wanted to see how he reacted. The super early self-pres seems pretty indicative. Also, my response last turn was more working off memory of my last time seeing xino elim.
  21. Elandera
    Sure was. My vote stays.
  22. Elandera
    Xino
  23. Elandera
    TBB seems to be the source of the weirder vibes in my reading so far.
  24. Elandera
    Certainly did not... I did not realize they were immune. That does change some of my thoughts.
  25. Elandera
    Pro-containment. Though the powers may be interesting, there's not much real benefit to having them in the loose when we can all* get investiture when they're contained.
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