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Plum Rhinoceros

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  1. Plum Rhinoceros
    True, but that's reactive and has nothing to do with Heron themselves. Yeahhh I know but I get nervous anyway... Would the elims hammer today? I could see the elims hammering today. That's worrisome. Mmm okay. Fair. Ah. Beagle is a Warform candidate, huh. Beagle. Lol watch me just abstain today because I have no storming idea :P. It just seems sort of pointless to me. I mean, I guess if we're ripping each other apart the only people they can vote without jumping onto a village train is themselves. But I also reference D1 Tuatara here- voted on by Falcon, Heron, and Mouse. That's something to consider, I think.
  2. Plum Rhinoceros
    My issue with Heron is that no one has an issue with Heron :P. I looked at the D4 end count again though, and boy does nothing make sense. If Beagle is elim, why weren't there more elims on Hyena? Heron and Beagle themselves are the only real candidates. Is it because the train was last-minute, or was it v/v? If it was v/v, why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere? If it was v/e why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere? Why is >50% of our PoE voting on other players in our PoE?
  3. Plum Rhinoceros
    It's 7:5, actually. Today is exlo.
  4. Plum Rhinoceros
    I've just been reading Beagle as Ash in general since D1- and I can never read Ash in the first place, so... But they voted Heron. Like. Is that a scare tactic? A bussing tactic? Are we just wrong? Beagle
  5. Plum Rhinoceros
    Assuming you meant Mouse It was a good idea when we thought we had caught Flamingo Malibu and that they were going to hop :P. Since they apparently didn't it's not useful, but we can rinse and repeat next Night turn if we need to. It's a good and viable strategy. But we need to get an elim today first. *** (Below I attempt to narrow the PoE. It doesn't go very well. See if you guys can do better) The way I see it, there are three teams that could be the case. Or at least three ideas of teams. Here's a not very helpful breakdown of my thinking: Option One: Malibu Flamingo In this scenario, Flamingo is Mavset-im. Fairly straightforward and decently likely, in my opinion. I think their possible teammates (in no particular order) are Beagle, Mouse, Falcon, Weasel, Scorpion, with an outside chance of Heron and the slimmest of all chances possible of Vulture. Option Two: Malibu Tuatara In this scenario, Tuatara is Mavset and is lying about making two PMs- meaning one of the claimed PMs holds only teammates and doesn't actually exist. Interestingly, the claimed PM we have includes Scorpion, Falcon, and Mouse- all people who were in the last elim list and ones that fit here as well. In this case I think Heron is most definitely evil, and Beagle, the three in the PM, and Weasel fit as well. Basically my point here is that whether Tuatara or Flamingo is Malibu I don't think it changes anything whereas the team guesses is concerned, but I wouldn't put them as teammates with each other. Option Three: Malibu Mouse/Beagle/Heron I group these together because, as I already said, I kind of think it doesn't really matter. At this point we only have a certain pool of people that work, and this grouping really is pretty much completely useless cause I'm literally just removing myself, Vulture, Dragonfly and Lion, then saying that the elims are in the rest. Which like, yeah. True, thanks Rhino, didn't think about that. I know TL;DR: I would be surprised if the elim team wasn't within [Beagle, Heron, Weasel, Scorpion, Flamingo, Tuatara, Falcon, Mouse] which is an absurdly big pool, but 5/8 I guess is the majority of those players. I think Flamingo only is evil if they are Mavset, and if that's the case Tuatara is likely clear. Similarly, Flamingo won't be evil if Tuatara's Mavset, but Tuatara could still be evil if say, Heron is. Really this whole post was me uselessly saying my thoughts but maybe there's something in here. I guess what I'm getting at is- if we come to a consensus where we can agree that <Player> is probably elim regardless of who else is, that's who we should exe. I tried to do that here but ended up putting everyone with everyone because I don't know how to do this kind of process of elimination and shrinking the PoE, but maybe someone else can do better.
  6. Plum Rhinoceros
    I don't think Heron is the other Mavset candidate... well, it's Flamingo, Tuatara, or one of [Beagle, Mouse, Heron]. Flamingo can prove themselves after today assuming they vote alone (the issue being if they're Mavset and we misexe, it's too late after today), Tuatara can prove themselves right now, and the three I mentioned I'm not entirely sure but that's the situation where Mavset snatched an Artform gem D1 for some reason. Those three I think are the three that could have it, they haven't proven a role thus far. Who else was in the PM? Continuing to not like how I'm one of the only Flamingo voters, hmm.
  7. Plum Rhinoceros
    I kind of really don't like the switch but I've been sussing Heron the whole game pretty much so I'm not sure why. I'm really stuck on Flamingo being Malibu but there's multiple possibilities that work where that's not the case. Trying to tell myself to keep an open mind, really. Hey @Cream Tuatara, did you send those two PMs? To who? And did anyone get one of those PMs?
  8. Plum Rhinoceros
    Scorpion didn't get Malibu'd, they responded in my PM with them. Meaning, that once Tuatara's PMs actually get confirmed (which I believe they will) Malibu has to be either Flamingo or Weasel. So you should vote Weasel, if not Flamingo. I don't understand your thinking here. Weasel hasn't been on the Shard in 17 hours, (heh) but assuming they come back and see my PM, we'll know one way or the other. I haven't either (save post-accusation), but all actual evidence points to Flamingo. I can understand you not reading Lion's megaposts I suppose but there were TL;DRs and it's pretty clear at this point.
  9. Plum Rhinoceros
    I can confirm that both Scorpion and Falcon are not Malibu 2.0
  10. Plum Rhinoceros
    The only candidates for that are Beagle and Heron, right? And I'm thinking about this more... does it even make sense for elim!Malibu!Hyena to use their ability? Hyena was pretty much trusted and confirmed from everyone- they could have just killed Lion or someone else and then easily exed Flamingo for the win, there was no need to transfer bodies. And they'd want to save the unblockable kill for the 6-5 Night. I don't see that happening.
  11. Plum Rhinoceros
    Hmm... the Hyena kill was probably just a normal kill- that's put us at 7/5, with Flamingo being Malibu. I'm thinking Hyena was killed specifically to look like Malibu jumped, so that Flamingo could survive another exe 'proving' they're in Meditationform, and by the time they're proven not to be, oops, 6-5 in the Night cycle, game over. Or at least that's my theory. But it of course is worth checking with Scorp/Weasel/Falcon.
  12. Plum Rhinoceros
    Scorp responded to my PM with them yesterday, so I'll be able to check. Edit: Is Falcon not an option? I thought they were in Mateform.
  13. Plum Rhinoceros
    Yeah, but I personally don't find that likely. I still think their posts (up until last turn where they started trying to explain themselves) have been very villagey. If they're elim they really did a good job.
  14. Plum Rhinoceros
    Well, if they're not Malibu I don't see why they can't be village. (Right? I think that's it.) Because I'm pretty sure the only reason they're being voted on is because they're likely Malibu.
  15. Plum Rhinoceros
    I really don't know what to think about that, alright :P. I suppose Flamingo will advocate for it being a Hyena Malibu, in which case we should check PMs with all the Mateforms. Those are who, Falcon, Scorpion, Weasel? I think I have a PM with two of those, so that's nice I'll probably still vote Flamingo though. Until proven otherwise. Edit: Hold up the PM I made last night was literally Falcon/Scorpion/Weasel xD
  16. Plum Rhinoceros
    I mean, that's outside my sphere of control Would make for a more interesting Day turn, that's for sure.
  17. Plum Rhinoceros
    Do we get to know why? Like... and you say Heron is nearly confirmed, which they're not. They just actively chose Beagle over Tuatara/Hyena, and Beagle isn't confirmed elim and Tuatara/Hyena aren't confirmed village. (Pretty sure, anyway.) So it's all just speculation. Which to be fair, you're not confirmed either. But you're also not just speculation. Edit: And like what can a Workform (I assume you mean Workform, though you said Warform) even do for opsec? Or any of the forms besides maybe Scholar/Art which you said you didn't have?
  18. Plum Rhinoceros
    Yours just happened to actually be provable I have mixed feelings about elim roles that can be mechanically caught, but hey, at least Malibu can body hop :P.
  19. Plum Rhinoceros
    I see a whole lot of convenience with their claims of losing forms and not getting any gems... to me looks like Malibu's trying to explain why they're not in a form.
  20. Plum Rhinoceros
    Yeah, I know- just after their last post on the first page and their first post on this one, I went from unsure from the group to no longer unsure from the group.
  21. Plum Rhinoceros
    Alright guys, so Flamingo is Malibu-em? Cool. And then Beagle/Heron are evil too, with... Mouse and Falcon as the others I guess? But we can start with the first three. I think that's what you all decided. I concur. Everyone should send a PM to three others that they're not in a PM with, in case Malibu makes a run for it. Though I guess if Flamingo (or Tuatara/Hyena I guess :P) dies tonight it'll be... sorta obvious that Malibu made the switch. Alternitively, the elims could just like kill Tuatara/Hyena (aka non Malibu) to confuse us. Let the mind games begin! Sorry for leaving five minutes before rollover and not reacting quickly or decisively enough when I got back with one minute on the clock. Theoretically I would have voted Beagle if I had been paying attention the whole time, but... I don't actually know :P.
  22. Plum Rhinoceros
    WHAT is going on i don't know what the count is or what to do so i wont mess with anything gahashfakjdfkladsvkjabhsdkfjh
  23. Plum Rhinoceros
    Why am I worried now >> No this is fine I always get worried :P.
  24. Plum Rhinoceros
    Actually, Flamingo had switched to Heron so it was 3-3-2 when you voted If that changes anything :P.
  25. Plum Rhinoceros
    ...Should we be worried?
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