Pearl Chameleon

3 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

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Tyrian purple was like, 90% trolling between you and falcon

Best PM imo I've ever had

Azure you said you were wyrm I am now to thuroughouly disappointed 

Do we put in our guestbook entry?

10 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

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GMs: Thanks for GMing, and enjoyed Devo's write-ups!

@Oxblood Beagle: ggwp sis

By far my favorite write-up was the one for Falcon's death. The memes were incorporated flawlessly.

Also beagle, you deserved to win in my opinion.

Wait so who won?

I'm so sorry 

Beagle, you deserve to win. Your 3-man Elim team did far better than the village did

And penguin... I don't even know how I tunneled you. Same goes with Meerkat kangaroo and swan.

Penguin

I can beat a mistborn any day of the week

This game

Smh smh smh

11 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

…

Either we have one Villager who’s decided they’re not going to change their mind, or one Villager who’s decided they’re going to play on autopilot. And if you both are convinced I’m Elim, then somehow that Village has both.

Oxblood Beagle

Pearl Chameleon

I don’t know which one of you is the Elim here, and maybe there’s more evidence one way or another. But I’d rather lose to Beagle than lose to Chameleon at this point.

Just so you know, I've requested a sub a very long time ago. As you may have noticed, I am still not subbed. So yeah, I am not totally playing this game. But it's not like I haven't tried to fix that.

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

• Chameleon, you posted earlier that it's a Coinflip for you. It's not. Next cycle it's a Coinflip for you. This cycle, you can make a choice, and if you're right you avoid the Coinflip entirely. Unless you make it a Coinflip.
• Hi. I'm frustrated. I'm trying not to be, because I would rather fight this logically rather than emotionally because I've never seen that end well for anyone. But if you can't tell my last two posts were frustrated then I don't know what to think.
• If you can read through 2000+ posts on MU, you can read through the twenty posts here.
• Any thoughts on the distro discussion?

Hmmm

Never had so much power

Feel like self voting

Also 2000 posts on MU is 100x more interesting than what's happening here. This game is on auto essentially, and it's over one way or another.

distro discussion:

e!mistborn beagle

v!smoker penguin

v!thug Cham

or 

v!vanilla beagle

e!smoker penguin

v!thug Cham

the game is over

pick your fate

Penguin

I Trust the lucky coin far more than I should

Penguin, if you're v, I think you would feel more frustrated in this situation. You aren't giving off "I care about who I vote at lylo" vibes. You just want to not be voted.

Also, I'll give it to you, you played really well! No matter what alignment you may flip, you've played really well.

9 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

you have thoughts on Chameleon? Because I'm not super liking how they've pretty much coasted this turn so far.

Well you see I've been playing a game on MU where 2000+ posts each cycle are commonplace, so that's where all my attention has gone. 

Penguin 

18 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Okay.

 

@Pearl Chameleon Now's the time to reveal whatever it is you haven't revealed. Where's your head at now, given Scorp's flip?

@Chartreuse Penguin Why didn't you consider Scorp at all yesterday?

I thought scorp would flip village mistborn

IDK why though.

anyways, it's exlo but instead of losing, it's a 50-50. I've been surpressing the urge to vote beagle for the sole sake of having an ultimate coin flip showdown with penguin, the ultimate conclusion to the tunnel, but it doesn't matter anyways. We have a 50% chance of winning today, and a 50% chance of winning tomorrow, so the odds are in our favor at a 75% chance of success. Therefore, the lucky coin shall lead us to victory.

AND also, all jokes aside, those ominous eon messages was me trying to get the elims to NK means waste their NK. Didn't work, but at least I tried.

13 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

If you didn’t want to say so, why make that last post? If you were village and got NK’d, what was the point of leaving that post without an attached explanation? Because that defeats the purpose of avoiding NK influence or whatever and right now it looks like intentionally planted IKYK to me. 

I’ve been thinking about both e!Cham and e!Penguin worlds, and e!Cham had a sure fire path to victory if they had killed Penguin overnight, because I was clearly tunnelling Scorp and obviously would have voted him today while Penguin was the only one considering “testing” Cham’s thug claim yesterday. Neither Scorp or myself ever agreed to that, so killing Penguin is 100% always what Cham does. It doesn’t matter if Scorp wasn’t sure on v!Cham because I had clearly been repping that read and in 2v1 you need 2 votes to kill. NKing elsewhere isn’t worth throwing away the assured win, I don’t think.

@Pearl Chameleon I still want to know what you’re thinking. 

I guess thinking about it now it makes sense that I haven’t been kept alive all these days - because I’ve been hard defending Penguin all game. My bad.

More to come later as I’m gathering my thoughts going over the game again, but I’m around 70% convinced right now. 

I think you're wrong reading my NK style. A beagle NK would've been in order because when you're in my position, you just need to hold it. that means giving them two juicy targets to banter between, and making sure you could vote either, and making sure to stay awake at f3 (very bad at doing).

Penguin

Reviewing beagle content. Ocram's razor says to kill penguin because there is a liar and a smoker among us and well, there's certainly one smoker claimed already.

Case for e!beagle thus far:

V credit from ostrich gambit severely overplayed.

Case for e!penguin thus far:

Someone smoked salmon and lied about it. There is one smoker. But why would v!penguin lie? There was no harm in claiming that v!penguin!smoker smoked Meerkat, but it was an opportunistic moment for e!smoker! penguin. 

Potentially pushing for e!scorp, killing him, in order to get the slight v cred over beagle.

This is quite brief and will be expanded on.

Whoever shall die, those who remain shall be the subject of a closer investigation.

10 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Oh I misunderstood your post, I guess that makes sense.

I'm neither of those things though, I'm a regular villager. (<-- Real)

Cham, can you talk more about what you meant by this? Both the part about you dying and how kangaroo would've been implicated by it

I...don't think I want us to gamble on exeing Cham tomorrow. I'm going to be doing the due diligence with regards to everybody tonight, but the chances of e!Cham are still very low in my opinion.

Some things are not revealed yet, and also exing me is a very, very, very bad idea.

5 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

How is that peculiar? He said at least 3 smokers because the entire playerlist hadn't claimed to him.  I claimed my true role to Mouse - vanilla. I didn't end up claiming in that group because I wasn't sure how I independently felt about Flamingo beyond trusting Mouse's read.

Edit:

If you know Mouse at all, you'd know that he wouldn't die with the knowledge of a claimed Smoker of all things. He'd have told multiple people that he trusted as contingency. 

Edit:

Grr Penguin you're ruining my chances of eating the NK I don't want to have to be here for the part that matters.

Edit:

I also just re-checked all my PMs with Mouse and no, he hadn't told me you had claimed Smoker but I don't know why that matters?

Edit:

Okay. It has to be Scorp for PoE reasons. I trust Cham. I reread (skimmed, really) Penguin’s content and I’m not wavering on my v read there either. Lion had a good argument about Scorp’s vote fluidity sticking out on D3 compared to all other Days where their vote was more static. It’s more than that though: their Vulture vote was cast late, they were already at 5 votes:

 

This was basically at EoD too so the it does look like an elim having decided to cut their losses and just bus last minute. And this also explains why Alb was frozen and didn’t end up voting, because the two were likely caught up discussing in the elim doc about whether to commit to the bus or not. Also, shortly before this vote:

Scorp signals here that they’d be fine flashwagoning Kangaroo while not wanting to be the one to initiate it. In the same post they question Lion switching their vote to Vulture in a way that’s obviously meant to call negative attention to Lion’s vote for wonky progression I’m guessing. And it’s worsened by the fact that Scorp had been repping a v read on Lion that entire time. Their progression on everything surrounding Vulture is really inconsistent & hedgy and you can really see their constructed worldview failing to stay true to itself under this high-pressure EoD.

And then there’s this from D4:

Elephant takes precedence over Alb in their ordered PoE for ?? reasons, despite the fact that Alb had put out actively elimmy content whereas Elephant had been supremely inactive. I don’t recall Scorp ever sharing what made Alb more village over Elephant at any point in the game, so this is really odd in hindsight. Not just that, but in the same post they don’t vote either of these two but instead vote Iguana? For science? It doesn’t add up. 

That’s what I’ll leave the thread with. It’s gotta be Scorp, neither Penguin nor Cham make sense here. Another argument in Penguin’s favor that i ironically realized while defending myself from Penguin’s sus is that Penguin would not have NK’d Flamingo at the stage where Flamingo died. Flamingo created a trust PM between themself, me, and Penguin (as Penguin mentioned) and I don’t see them immediately NKing Flamingo when they were more trusting of Penguin than any of the remaining players. It doesn’t make sense when e!Penguin can instead utilise the fact that Flamingo was evidently a bit detached from the thread and could have been manipulated easily as a result. They would’ve kept them around at least a bit longer. 

 

I agree scorp had some pretty red flags moments.

1 hour ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

You're one of the top trusts along with Cham, why on Earth would e!me push for you over Penguin, a known Smoker?

Anyways, looks like I cannot change anyone's mind. I'll case each of Scorp/Penguin/Beagle later, I'm in class rn. Come back to it when you need to vote next cycle. 

If Scorp is evil, they kill Beagle and go for Penguin last cycle as Cham is (or was) very gung-ho about killing Penguin.

If Penguin is evil, hmm this is a bit tricky as they say both Beagle and Scorpion are their top trust. If they believe Cham's Thug claim, then they need to kill Scorp/Beagle. It comes down to whom they can convince Cham to vote for. 

If Beagle is evil, it's the same as e!Scorp case. They kill Scorp and join together with Cham to vote for Penguin. 

Someone failed that reaction test

After kangaroo I'd look at maybe penguin, because Ocram's razor points to the simplist answer as the most likely right one, and I mean, we have one claimed smoker and someone smoked Meerkat and is lying about it. 

Kangaroo

Should I die, kangaroo should too.

3 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

Alright, first things first. I meant progression through the entire game. I initially thought there they seemed very genuine but then later found discrepancies in their posts and began suspecting them. All this prior to Day 3. 

It's quite simple, I had rushed through to catch up because I didn't time. The main players being discussed for execution were Vulture, Chameleon, Alb and Heron. Cham and Alb I suspected myself and had reasonings for them. Vulture, I recalled from my catching up as being voted on for which was [Vulture was suspected for saying they think Heron was e!CS]. I disagreed and said if they thought so and were evil, they'd just shoot Heron or use Heron, not try to get them exed. Which is why my vote did not go on Vulture. The only other player up for execution was Heron, and I just did not recall anything regarding players making a case for Heron [other than Vulture]. My posts are simply asking for a recap, just literally asking for the information I did not have. I did not want any to "convince" me to vote for Heron. I simply wanted to vote fully informed. 

It was 3-3-3-3, Cham moved to Alb, then I moved to Alb to make it 5[Alb]-3[Heron]-3[Vulture]

Again, if e!me wanted to bus, why wouldn't I have voted on Vulture and gained cred when it was likely that the CS would shoot Vulture again? If Alb were to be exed, elims would lose both Alb and Vulture in the same cycle. Bussing Alb was the worst possible move there. Bussing Vulture the best. 

Uh because you could bring up this exact point if you are ever sussed? Isn't that the point of bussing? As a master bus driver myself, I know that the two largest bus indicators are:

-using the bus to defend yourself

-overweighing the buses' alignment indicative property on yourself

And you've done both.

I did

EDIT:

Right now is not a great time to talk to me

5 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

whos aman

King of fakeclaims and Gambits

HOW DOES THIS KEEP HAPPENING

DESTROY the kangaroo

People lose braincells and elims get free NK's and mls when we forget our reads and chase after some obviously setup smoker-meerkat thing and look at where it got us

Opal Lion is dying tonight, garuanteed. Vote manip is too powerful late game

If not them, then Chartreuse Penguin. In fact, I think chartreuse penguin nk is indicative towards e!Lion, but idk man

Clearly, there's two explanations:

1. E!penguin smoked Meerkat because they could, and happened to win the lottery with mls

2. E!mistborn someone else decided that they had previously scanned swan as a rioter, and drew iron and copper on previous nights, and decides to pull off a Gambit that is Aman tier

Obviously, both of these options sound incredibly stupid

So stop

Poking

Your

Head

Down

The

Same

Rabbit

Hole

Like people are losing their braincells over this ordeal

People get your act together

4 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

no idea. also, why kanga in this case? im agreeing with you here. Penguin is the next best.

Because the elims clearly want us to kill all the smokers.

Penguin is already village

And besides there are reasons for a v!mistborn not claiming in thread (if they drew bronze or iron this cycle)

12 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Elim Thug can be dangerous the same reason a Village Thug can be - in endgames, like this, when the Village is really counting on their exe going through successfully, only for them to survive and mess up the counts. Especially if there's enough nebulousness that the Elims can bus their own Thug instead of having to full commit towards a come-from-behind hammer. Plus... don't have any stats on this, but I'd wager that decently often an early-game Thug exe will get themselves more than just a cycle of life.

E!Seeker is dangerous, obviously. And E!Rioter... Rioters vs Soothers is weird. Rioters can pull off bigger swings if they leverage themselves right, but can also expose themselves much more easily than a Soother can. Rioter's probably stronger in my mind thanks to LG74-Rioter-Smoker-rules-shenanigans, but they're about the same. And Vote Manip's a good deal stronger in the hands of the informed Elim team.

TL:DR, Tyrian is actually pretty balanced, what do ya know.

Except Smokers, they only affect other roles and so they get the short end of the stick. Or do until E!Seekers and E!Rioters make the Village go running for their Copperclouds again.

 

Pretty sure it's just the one left. E!Thug isn't quite an extra Elim, but it's pretty close. And we only started with 25 players. AG8 and AG9 had five elims with 26 and 23, respectively.

Tyrian is fairly balanced, agreed.