Magenta Albatross

36 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

What do you all think of Scorpion and Meerkat?Am I just tunneling or is there something there?

I haven’t done my reread yet (I had a lot more to do today than I thought, so didn’t really have time to reread the thread after work, and when I did get home I played a board game with my dad and brother, and I’m too tired to reread the thread after my shower), but I think there might be something to look at with Scorpion. I’m not as sure about Meerkat, but it wouldn’t hurt to look at them too. 

1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Well, I'm glad that I protected Albatross.

I just realized I said that you protected me instead of what you actually did, scan me. But now I guess you did protect me too.

Okay, that was an insanely good writeup. Thank you @Elbereth and @Fifth Scholar for the amazing write ups so far!!!

Anyway, thank you to whoever protected me last night as well. I’m thinking the elim kill was on me, and probably at least one of the kills on the villagers was from an elim. Maybe Scarlet Octopus was an elim!Dustbringer, but I’m not sure. I’m pretty sure that Opal Lion was a village!Dustbringer kill. I mean, I almost killed Lion because of how much discourse was being had about them before I decided to kill Octopus, so it would’ve made sense from a villager standpoint to kill Lion. I’m glad I changed my mind though.

I think we really should figure out who killed Vulture and Swan. I’m thinking the kill on Vulture was probably an elim and the kill on Swan was probably a villager. Mostly because I trusted Vulture and felt like more people did than just me. I could totally see someone deciding to kill Swan since they hadn’t posted as much. Personally, I felt like they were a villager from our PM and a couple posts too, which is why I removed them from my potential kill list.

Anyway, from here, I’ll need to go back through Ocotpus’s and Rhino’s posts now and see how they were interacting and who neither of them were mentioning.

Preliminary thoughts before I reread anything again:

1. Amethyst Scorpion: One of my RP partners, so I'd rather not have them lynched or killed.  Even despite that, I think I've been unbiased in my reading of their analysis, and I'm pretty sure their village. Soft Village
2. Emerald Falcon: My other RP partner, so I'd rather not have them lynched or killed either.  However, if either of my RP partners are an elim, I'd bet it's Falcon. I'll get into why once I do my reread at some point, but for now I don't think it's worth it to vote for them yet. Soft Elim
3. Indigo Weasel: Unless their claim of having protected me is a very brash way of trying to pocket me, I think they're village. I'd be willing to look into them if none of my other elim reads pan out, however. Soft Village
4. Magenta Albatross: I'm not sure. Probably an elim.  
5. Mauve Crocodile: So, before Octopus flipped elim, I was soundly pretty sure that Croc was a villager, based on their reaction to everyone talking about them and the fact that they even claimed to be the Dustbringer who killed Rhino. However, reading back through the second post from Octopus that Iguana linked above, I noticed this bit: 

   Quote

   They also talk about Crocodile. I think I missed the controversy about them, I'll have to go back any analyse them tomorrow. Crocodile has posted though, and claims to have slain Rhino. I'm fairly certain that clears them. They wouldn't claim that unless they did it, as the real Releaser would have counterclaimed. The only possible way they could get away with lying about this is if Chameleon was the dustbringer who killed Rhino and Crocodile somehow knew that. That is strong evidence that Crocodile is a Villager. I don't see a need for further discussion on the matter.

   Octopus was heavily leaning into the narrative that Croc was a villager. Their confidence in Croc being cleared...puts little confidence in me that they were actually cleared.  Croc is once again my strongest elim read right now. Hard Elim

6. Mint Heron: Honestly, I can't even remember much of what they've posted so far, so I need to watch for them in my reread. Neutral
7. Onyx Flamingo: See Mint Heron. Neutral
8. Saffron Iguana: I'm fairly pretty sure they're village, just from the way they've been posting since D1, though there is still the possibility that they bussed Rhino to gain some village cred. They've been posting a lot of pretty decent analysis so far, but that isn't that hard to do as an elim. Soft Elim
9. Sage Kangaroo: A part of me wants to be annoyed by their RP, but I think that leads down a dangerous path. It would be too easy for us to start determining what RP is okay and what types of posts are allowed. Which is all kinds of NOPE for me. @Sage Kangaroo I do wish you would post at least some analysis along with your RP, though I do understand if doing so would reduce the already limited time you have available to play. I'd rather you have fun than worry about trying to analyze and keep up with the game.
10. Salmon Meerkat: I've got a bit of a village gut read on them, but I don't know how much of that is just because they haven't posted much or they've posted stuff I agree with. I'll need to check that on my reread. Soft Village
11. Sunburst Toucan: I honestly haven't been keeping track of them much since the whole D1 fiasco. My thoughts about them are still basically the same as they always were: it would take a lot of unfortunate luck for the elims to have had to make the choice of either lynching Toucan or Rhino. If Toucan is an elim, might need to look into Iguana as well. Soft Elim
12. Violet Axolotl: They've been doing some pretty good analysis, and seem pretty genuine in our PMs. That's not very hard to do as an elim, but I'm willing to believe it for them (if they who I think they are), and there are people I trust much less than them. Hard Village

Jonan watched as Sein flew over to the body of Brana and studied her. For a moment, he could’ve sworn Sein...grew. Jonan shook his head. I’m just imagining things, he thought, because I’m tired and tensions are high.

He walked over to Sein, looking at Brana’s corpse over him. “What are you looking at her for?” Jonan asked Sein.

@Emerald Falcon @Amethyst Scorpion

I’ve been having a pretty rough past couple days, so I’ve been pretty out of it. Plus the fact that not as much discussion’s been happening and there’s no PMs. It’s all just led to me feeling really worn out with the game right now.

I’d rather not vote for anyone, but that leaves the vote up to be manipulated by elims. So, Gecko. I still think Lion is probably village based on how hard Rhino went on them (though wouldn’t be opposed to someone dusting them tonight just to make sure, which could give us some insight on other players depending on how they flip). I don’t even remember anything about Flamingo, so I don’t feel comfortable putting them up for the lynch. Plus, it just ties them with Gecko and gives the elims more control over the lynch.

So I’ll leave it at this. Maybe I’ll reread the thread, but I kinda need to sleep. We’ll see how it goes.

9 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

In light of what you all have said, I am bumping Weasel down to NAI on my list. Additionally, I have reconsidered Axolotl, and if they are who I think they are, then their lack of posts is more NAI than suspicious.

I'm pretty sure I know who Axolotl is as well. Not just from their posts, but from our PM as well. So nothing they've done so far has really been super suspicious to me because of that. 

Of course, if they aren't who I think they are, then things might be a little bit different.

I was gonna say this before Falcon posted, so may as well do it anyway: I PM’d Croc last night. They had already been claiming they were a Dustbringer in our PM and that their kill was set to be on Rhino. Croc (assuming they’re an elim) would’ve had to already know of another Dustbringer who had told Croc they were gonna kill Rhino and then hope that no one else claims they killed Rhino. That could be why Chameleon was killed. They could’ve told Croc (or another elim) that they were gonna submit the kill on Rhino, then the elims decided to kill Chameleon and have one of their own take the credit.

I don’t really think that’s the case, but that is a possible scenario for how Croc could be an elim.

2 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

To be clear Mauve Crocodile, your claim is that you scanned Rhino as an elim, correct? @Mauve Crocodile

Uhhh, I don't think they're claiming that at all, really. I'm the one who claimed that last turn. I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

~

Jonan followed Sein and Jesh as they went towards another room. He watched Sein look out a window, watching as a group of skyeels soared through the skies, then as a Windrunner followed them. The strange spren almost seemed sad, the blue glow that he assumed must be its eyes even appeared to dim. 

"Sein?" Jesh asked in a quiet voice. "We can help you get home, if you want. You don't even have to keep helping me find Trisk. She'll probably find her own way, anyways."

Jonan nodded his assent. "If what Ellira and Errdal said is true," he said, "then I think I know how me and Jesh can find our axehounds. As curious as I am to find out more about your strange Traveler and the Light and Sol, I would be glad to help you find a way to get back home."

@Amethyst Scorpion @Emerald Falcon

4 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I agree with most of your analysis, except I've had a skybreaker role already, and all the info I got was that the player was a village worldhopper. So I didn't get to know the specific role he had that cycle. 

While that is a point against Crocodile, all this really shows is that they haven't had a chance to be a Skybreaker yet. So they don't really know how the scans work for worldhoppers yet. 

Also, that's unfortunate about Rhino being an Elsecaller. At least we know that, if they somehow survive tonight too, we're almost guaranteed a lynch on them next cycle. I just hope it doesn't have to come to that point. 

1 hour ago, Emerald Falcon said:

"Enough with this metaphysical stuff," Sein said. "What do your axehounds look like?"

He hoped that doing something as mundane as finding their two dogs would force this world to make more sense.

How do I explain what an axehound looks like? Jonan thought to himself.

”Well,” he said, “they’re not quite like actual hounds, or dogs, really. The naming itself is a remnant from when the humans on Roshar lived on Ashyn, and had dogs. Or at least had dog-like animals.

”Roshar’s axehounds are one of many of the native species to Roshar, kind of like a little Greatshell like you’d find in the Shattered Plains or like the Reshi Isles.

”As for what they look like, they’re covered in carapace, have six legs, and have angular heads with feather-like antennae.”

Jonan had to pause for a moment. Talking about this was really making him miss Gren. He didn’t even know if she was still alive, though Ellira had mentioned she’d seen a couple axehounds leaving the room where Re-Shephir was.

@Amethyst Scorpion

1 hour ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Hmm. Would it be worthwhile to Dustify Rhino and use the lynch on someone else? We’d run the risk of the kill getting blocked, but we probably have a couple of dustbringers at least, who could team up to overcome protection.

I really don’t think that’s a smart idea. Keeping an elim alive for any reason sounds like a Bad Idea™

There are so many reasons I think it’s bad, but the biggest ones are 1) Rhino’s an Elsecaller and we waste the village Dustbringer kill tonight, 2) the elims have a Windrunner to protect Rhino, or 3) we waste a lynch on someone that’s village when we could’ve just lynched an elim. 

I’ll be honest, my first impression of this post was that Croc is an elim, but I’ve reread it a couple times, and I think they’re coming from a village standpoint. It’d be a good idea for a Skybreaker to scan Croc just in case at some point. Also, I think it’d be a good idea to recommend who Skybreakers should scan in purple, like how @Emerald Falcon recommended we recommend Dustbringers targets in orange. 

52 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said:

I would not classify Albatross as a confirmed villager, though. If someone else told Albatross that they also scanned Rhino, then it's quite possible their hand was forced in revealing Rhino's flip to the thread or else show that they and Rhino are in cahoots together. I'm not sure I completely got why they were the leading candidate besides Lion last cycle, but it's something that I want to analyse more closely whenever I next have more time.

I hadn’t considered that as a possible reason I’d put Rhino as an elim. With how poorly the game’s been going for the elims, I don’t know if I would’ve bussed them if I were their teammate though. It would only take a quick scan to see if I’m elim for that bus to be done in vain if I was an elim.

Also, I’m not quite sure what exactly I did that was worthy of me getting lynched last cycle either. 

~~

Sein asked Jonan to explain the realms as if he didn’t know anything about them. He took a moment to gather his thoughts, because it’s been a long time since he’d had to explain this to someone uneducated.

”Okay,” Jonan said, “so, you’re familiar with the Physical Realm, which is where are now. Then there’s the Cognitive Realm, which is a reflection of the thoughts of all living creatures. In Roshar’s part of the Cognitive Realm, colloquially known as Shadesmar, land becomes a sea of beads and the water becomes land.

”The spren,” Jonan said, gesturing to a logicspren that had appeared as he’d begun talking, “are more fully in that realm than in this realm. What we see of them is just a reflection of their full form in Shadesmar.

”Then there’s the Spiritual Realm. There, all things and times are one. It is the source of all Investiture, as well. Also, the ideal form of all things is there as well.”

~~

Just got ninja’d by Gecko, Weasel, and Rhino. 

@Plum Rhinoceros I am going to ignore that post. We never had a PM (I think I would’ve remembered that), and I must assume everything else is just as fake.

18 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Changing views on Lion are solely because Rhino voted for Lion this cycle, which is why I added the caveat that early cycle votes aren't necessarily indicative of not being on the same elim team.

I think Lion’s more likely to be village than elim based on how Rhino’s been focusing on them, but a Skybreaker should probably scan them tonight to make sure. 

27 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

What?? Preposterous! Nothing more than an elim ploy! Albatross, what do you hope to achieve by this?? You’re gonna get lynched the moment I flip village! What secret role do you possess? 
It’s easy to claim that someone else also got the same result. Reveal yourself, coward. :} 

I mean, if I was an elim, I’d basically be guaranteeing my own lynch tomorrow if you flipped village. 

Also, if you look on the bright side, at least you can troll as an outed elim now!

9 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Well, that makes things rather easy for the lynch, doesn't it  Rhino

It does make things easy, but I don’t want it to stifle discussion. We’ve got a cycle to plan who our next lynch is, which gives us a huge advantage over the elims. When I get a chance later to go back through and read the thread again, I’m gonna be trying to figure out what I can get from Rhino’s posts.

3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Ouch I thought we had this trust thing going, Iguana  

To be fair, I was really hoping my initial read of you was wrong and you’d scan villager so I could have someone I know is good to talk to. Alas, I had the unfortunate luck of being right about my gut read for once.

3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Opal Lion seems more likely to be good in this scenario assuming Rhino flips elim, although preliminary votes aren't particularly useful in determining teammates since they're changed easily. Iguana is also more likely village given Rhino's vote last cycle.

I’m curious how you reached these conclusions. I think I understand the part about Igauna (to be fair, I’ve trusted them for awhile now anyway), but I’m not sure why this makes Lion more likely to be good?
 

@Plum Rhinoceros Rhino. I got Skybreaker last cycle and still felt like something was off about your posts. I’m glad I was right. I scanned Rhino as an elim. Someone else did as well and told me, but I’d rather be able to keep their identity secret so the elims only have one confirmed villager to attack tonight.

Anyway, I’m gonna go back through Rhino’s posts later and see who they were avoiding talking about and what they were saying about other players and see if I can figure out who his other 2-3 teammates are. 

”Well, no,” Jonan said. “I don’t know anything about these Ascendant realms. As for the spheres, they contain Stormlight. Do I really need to explain the three realms to you?”

@Amethyst Scorpion @Emerald Falcon

~

Okay, Toucan Lion. I’m about to go to sleep and definitely will not be able to get on for rollover, so I’m voting in a way that can maybe let me survive.

1 hour ago, Cream Tuatara said:

If Penguin were still alive I'd be very curious about the identity of the Bondsmith. I'd have figured that maybe Penguin had the Bondsmith power maybe?

You must’ve missed the post where I said the first anonymous message had a clue in there that was meant to be a way Penguin could confirm they were an Edgedancer like I’d confirmed I was a Willshaper to them. 

Jonan started following Sein, still not completely sure this wasn’t a dream. He was pretty confident it was real, but at the same time, he’d never heard of time travel in reverse.

”Well, the spheres are an interesting phenomenon,” he said, picking a smokestone out of a nearby bowl of spheres illuminating their pathway. “During a highstorm, which is a massive Investiture-filled storm, the barrier between the three realms becomes thin and Investiture from the Spiritual Realm fills the spheres. You do know about the realms at least, right?”

@Emerald Falcon @Amethyst Scorpion

18 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Interesting. xD 

Voting for you does nothing unless I either get more people saying they’ll vote for you or you move your vote. It just puts Toucan and Iguana back in a tied lynch. 

32 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

If you think neither of them are elims, vote on me.

I will if you move your vote off of Iguana.

Also, your post makes sense, but I disagree about the elim team size. There are far more possible village kills than extra elim kills. And even though a lot of the village kills would hit also hit villagers, they would still probably hit a couple elims, severely limiting the elims. 

9 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Do you have any gut reads that you’d like to pursue?

You, actually. Something about your last post (the one before the one I’m quoting from right now) just felt really off to me. There was one part that really set me off though: 

42 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Hmm how plausible is it that only 2 elims are left now? Because if we're all worldhoppers, then it's pretty likely that some of us may end up killing each other if we get the dustbringer role, therefore helping the elims. In this scenario, wouldn't a 4-player elim team make a little sense? Doesn't really matter though, I guess.

An elim team of only 4 players in a game this size would only be 17% of the total amount of players. I know the 20%/25% rule isn’t a hard rule, but 17% (technically 16.667%) just seems way too low to me. Plus, assuming everyone is a worldhopper  (which feels like a safe assumption at this point), that’s the potential for way too many village kills for such a small team. This part of your post feels like it’s trying to lull us into a sense of safety, make us underestimate the size of the elim team. Because of the sheer amount of possible village kills (imagine if 5 people all randomly received Dustbringer the same cycle), I believe that a 5 elim team is almost too low.

Plus, there’s also this part: 

47 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

We actually are in a position were we can afford to have a few mislynches for the sake of info, so that lynch might not be so bad. 

This, paired with the other part of your post I quoted, makes me think you’re setting us up to become complacent with our lynches. We do technically have a pretty decent amount of wiggle room when it comes to mislynches, but letting them happen all up front does us no good.

Plus I also think that Iguana/Toucan are probably both village, and it makes more sense to lynch Toucan if you’re gonna lynch either of them, which makes me distrust you even more. But that’s just the cherry on top of the cake that is the rest of my distrust for you.

Toucan. I don’t think it makes sense to lynch the more active player of the pair of people whose alignments are linked together like they are (apparently). 

I don’t like how this lynch has been set up, but there’s not really a lot of other options. At least, I can’t see any right now. 

1 hour ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

@Magenta Albatross Is there a reason you chose to move Tuatara's vote? You caused a significant vote swing, which you could have lessened by moving some other vote. This actually seems to be the most suspicious thing during D1 to me, so I'll vote on Albatross for now.

Like I said, it was just a way to prove to Penguin that I was in fact a Willshaper. I just picked a random player’s vote to move. I put the order in about an hour and a half before rollover, and I didn’t think to change it after some of the votes moved around later in the cycle. 

1 hour ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

But TLDR; They were looking for any reason to lynch someone, and voted on Toucan for ignoring a meaningless question. They have not been putting forth effort to reread or analyse the thread, backpedaling on what they knew right before Day 1 ended. They read like someone who is not bothering to investigate, but just to appear active and helpful. They're either an Elim or a villager who doens't have the time to spend on doing analysis.

Yeah, you basically got it exactly right. I knew my vote wouldn’t matter since I was gonna be moving someone else’s vote anyway, so I just picked someone to vote for and came up with a half-decent reason  to vote for them. I will still stand by my statement that Tuatara’s reluctance to answer the question is weird considering how ultimately meaningless of a question it was. But I wouldn’t have voted on them if I hadn’t been a Willshaper trying to prove my role to Penguin.

~

Jonan stared at Sein for a moment after the images stopped. He dismissed his shardblade and began to rub his eyes. This has to be a dream, he thought to himself. I’ve been all over the Cosmere, and never heard of any of that before. 

”Sein, I’m gonna be completely honest with you...whatever you are,” he said. “I’ve never heard of any of that. And I’ve been to Nalthis, Scadrial, Threnody, and spent a few years studying in Silverlight. What kind of Investiture do you use?”

@Emerald Falcon @Amethyst Scorpion

Jonan could barely believe what he was hearing and seeing. The weird spren, Sein, could talk. He tapped it, just to see if it was real, and to his surprise his hand actually touched it. 

”Well...Sein,” he said, getting ready to summon his shardblade again in case he needed to protect Jesh, “where are you from? How did you get here?”

@Emerald Falcon @Amethyst Scorpion

@Salmon Meerkat I’m also a worldhopper, so I’m pretty sure we’re all worldhoppers at this point.

58 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

The first message doesn't seem to make very much sense, IDK what it's talking about.

I was in a PM with Penguin, who was an Edgedancer, last cycle. The first anonymous message was meant to be a way for them to confirm their claim that they were an Edgedancer. Granted, that doesn’t matter now that they’re dead. 

Also, I was a Willshaper last cycle, and I was the one who moved Tuatara’s vote onto Chameleon. That was how I was proving my role to Penguin. 

35 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Albatross later said bussing a worldhopper wouldn't be a smart move, but if everyone is a worldhopper, no one is a worldhopper then it doesn't matter if they lose one. 

Well, I said that before this cycle and found out that there were at least four Worldhoppers in the game. Now, I trust Iguana significantly less than I did before. The elims would’ve already known that everyone’s a worldhopper, so it really wasn’t a big deal to bus a teammate D1. 

~

Jonan’s heart stopped for a moment. This kid’s also missing his axehound? Did someone take both of our axehounds?

He noticed the floating spren again, watching as it shone a strange blue light over some spheres. “Yes, I can see it too.” he said. “Any idea what it is?”

@Amethyst Scorpion @Emerald Falcon

Jonan has been searching the tunnels for awhile now after a note had been left on his bed. If you want to find Gren, it read, you’ll have to find us within the tower. They were taunting him. 

As he rounded a corner, he heard some distant voices coming down a long hallway. He summoned his shardblade, a sleek, simple sword, with grooves set in the side. 

As he entered the chamber, he saw a little child and...a floating something. It was unlike any spren he’d ever seen before. 

”Who are you? Where did you come from?”

@Emerald Falcon @Amethyst Scorpion

~

Falcon, thank you for doing in one post what I couldn’t do in like a bajillion.  I was trying to find a way that said what you did about Toucan’s posts feeling like they were explicitly meant to avoid saying anything revealing, just couldn’t find the words for it.