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Coral Swan

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Everything posted by Coral Swan

  1. Coral Swan
    (emphasis mine). If the elims are trying to distance themselves from a lynch, why would they use vote manipulation, since as you claim, it gives the village information? Also, if one of the two people up for the lynch was a villager with vote manipulation, then that would throw a wrench into any information we might gain. I do agree with you that voting to make a vote not close is unhelpful. But voting to break a tie is different, and you were advocating a tie vote, which is noncommittal, the very thing you voted on me for in the first place.
  2. Coral Swan
    @Orlok Tsubodai you got my character's name wrong; it's Elyle with 2 L's, because Roshar and symmetry. Also, are PMs open?
  3. Coral Swan
    I would think that only an eliminator would have reason to be committed to a specific vote early during D1. If I have very little reasoning behind my vote, then logically it should take very little to change my mind. Also, its easy to commit to a vote that doesn't mean anything. My current vote is actually a perfect example of that, although it wasn't intended as such. It's been in the same place for a while, but I haven't gone to the effort to convince anyone to join me, and thus am not generating any useful information (I will note that there is nothing I can do about that at this point, since the lynch is basically decided by now). My "non-committal" votes were arguably much more helpful to the village. Name one concrete example of a close lynch giving useful information through vote manipulation, and maybe I'll buy this (concrete meaning historical or a specific theoretical scenario). But right now I'm not convinced.
  4. Coral Swan
    I have lots of thoughts guys, but I have an exam due in 5 hours and it is higher priority than SE right now.
  5. Coral Swan
    Voting specifically to cause a tie is a really bad idea. For one thing, as I demonstrated in my post, if anyone disagrees then it is pointless to try and cause a tie. I didn't even mention the possibility of vote manipulation, both by elims and by villagers that want to stay alive. That might get us some info about role distribution, but nothing about who is village or elim, which is our primary goal. But I also think that it's it's a cheap move to go for a tie, because it feels like a middle ground. Unfortunately, this is not a game of middle grounds, but of making decisions, learning from them, and moving on.
  6. Coral Swan
    Gecko. Elyle was serving up some waffles when he caught the end of a conversation,"... I want to maintain a tied vote." Elyle couldn't believe his ears, and rounded on the guest, a foreigner. "You think we should cast a die to determine who to kill? Just as well give up on trying to find out who's behind this and let them kill us one by one. I just said that targeting those not present was a cheap way to avoid showing your true colours. Well, how is this any different? You're a coward and a fool unwilling to take responsibility for your actions! See how ridiculous this is? By withdrawing my vote, there is once again no tie. I have the power to kill, be it myself or someone else, and will use that power to prevent any randomness in our decision." Elyle turned and spoke to the whole room, "Which of you, after I am dead, has the courage to go into my son's room and explain to him that his father is dead because someone rolled a die? Maybe one or two of you, but certainly not you!" And Elyle gestured towards the stranger (Violet Axolotl). "No, if I'm truly to die, I will take my own life rather than let my fate be decided by a couple of fools. Then you can tell Elysian that his father died to save the town, which should be a little easier to stomach." With that, Elyle collected a few plates and headed back to the kitchen to finish his pies. He was done listening to this crowd for the night.
  7. Coral Swan
    Come up with an RP name for yourself. If other people don't, give them one yourself, and then refer to them by that. I'm Elyle, and I'd appreciate being referred to and voted for as such, rather than coral.
  8. Coral Swan
    @Salmon Meerkat Okay, so assume 30 players and 6 elims. Lets pick a group of 3, of which we lynch 1. Or 4, since there are 4 people that have 2+ votes on them. First person has a 24/30 chance of being village. Assuming they are village, the second person has a 23/29 chance of being village. 3rd has 22/28 and 4th has 21/27. Thus in a group of 3 there is a 24*23*22/(30*29*28)=.50 chance of having no eliminators in that group. With 4 there is a 24*23*22*21/(30*29*28*27)=.39 chance off no elims being in the group. So everything being random, there is a 61% chance one of the people with 2+ votes on them being an eliminator. The chance of actually lynching an elim (again, everything being random) is 20%, as you said. But the chance of gaining useful discussion to analyze is significantly higher.
  9. Coral Swan
    @Salmon Meerkat I'm not sure why you are apologetic about voting for me. I have been very vocal about pushing for a D1 lynch, and if it falls on me then it falls on me. As far as "evidence" for my vote on Ivory, there isn't any evidence yet. Everyone that isn't an elim is guessing, and the elims are voting randomly to make it look like guessing. However, Ivory argued for something that was harmful to the village, which is why I voted for her (Ivory sounds female to me). I mentioned that in my RP, and that part about people having a change of mind was referring to pinch-hitters. I clarified all that with my next post though. As for the thing about new players, this is the first Anonymous Game. So while I believe that Ivory is probably a new player, that sort of thing shouldn't be important. Anybody could claim to be a new player to get out of the D1 lynch and we wouldn't be any the wiser for a few weeks. This game should somewhat level the playing field between veterans and newcomers. As for my RP, I'm not going to change my habits. It's more fun to me, and honestly it should be easier to read than an analysis post. Part of the reason for my vote on Taupe was that they already had 2 votes. I'm open to considering multiple people for the lynch, but if nobody is facing the threat of dying then we won't get as much information out of this. There should be 4-6 elims based on the 20% and square root rule, also considering them having power roles (and that the village has lost every AG). If we assume 6 elims and pick 3 people to choose from to lynch, there is a 50% chance at least one of the 3 is an elim. That means we have a 50% chance of forcing the elims to have a stake in the discussion, which is what we want. So my vote will stay for now.
  10. Coral Swan
    Ivory Dragonfly. Taupe Gecko. The thing is, we have to start somewhere. Some games start in the night, so the elims get to kill someone before the game starts. But that causes the same problem; somebody dies before they really get to participate. By having a D1 lynch, everyone gets to contribute something before the first death. And random voting patterns is a perfectly good reason for a D1 lynch.
  11. Coral Swan
    Nolan/Ivory Dragonfly, which is where my vote currently is.
  12. Coral Swan
    It's kind of hard to say this in RP, so: Killing an inactive is less helpful than forgoing the D1 lynch entirely. It gives no useful information. In the last LG, an inactive elim was lynched D1, and then nothing useful was gained from, despite the fact that there were two competing bandwagons and the identities of both players were learned. Furthermore, this game allows for pinch hitters, which means that killing inactive players will decrease the total activity level in this game. Killing an inactive D1 is an easy way out of an otherwise hard decision, which is why some people hold that position. It's a nice middle ground. But with this ruleset especially, it is only helpful to the eliminators to lynch an inactive player.
  13. Coral Swan
    Elyle chuckled to himself as Emalia went up to her room. In the face of danger, some people became paranoid, or courageous. Apparently, others started looking for partners. Elyle's wife was gone, killed by the Blight four years back, and he wasn't interested in another relationship. It would feel too much like a betrayal of her memory. He went into the back room and smiled sadly as he watched his son play in the corner. One more reason to keep this town from falling to pieces. That's the only way I can protect Elysian. Elyle posted another notice on his door, beside the first one. It read: I will do my part to keep the town safe. In a day's time, those who haven't started pitching in will surely have a change of mind. Looking at them right now won't solve our problems. I charge Nolan with treason against this town, and when it comes time for killing, I'll hold the knife, tie the rope, or prepare the poison myself.
  14. Coral Swan
    I'm just checking in to say that I've read up on what has been said. It's late for me, and I'll be busy in the morning for a while, so I'll try and get a vote down within 14 hours.
  15. Coral Swan
    Everything is formatted correctly now. @Oxblood Beagle There is no role that can see PMs apart from the original members. However, roleclaiming is dangerous.
  16. Coral Swan
    @Orlok Tsubodai It may be just me, but your text both in the first post and my PM is all one long line rather than fitting within the normal space for a post. That isn't happening for other players posts. Do you know what's up? Elyle frowned from inside his inn, The Thoughtful Skyeel, upon hearing the grim news. The blacksmith had been a consistent patron, stopping by most evenings for a drink or a waffle. In a town like this, where everyone knew each other, the loss would be felt all around. Elyle supposed that he would probably have fair number of visitors over the next few weeks as people tried to sort through what was going on, and got back to baking. Later in the day, he nailed a notice to the front door of the inn, which read: I know that everyone is distraught about the death of Metam. However, if you have any concerns about my loyalty to this town then please address me in person rather than spreading rumors. I also offer my humble inn as a gathering place for us to work through events in the coming days. For any who are visiting, my rooms are open, although I doubt they will offer much protection from future killings. I'm going to try and RP as much as I can for this game, including votes. For that reason I will not vote just yet, as presumably my character is familiar with the rest of the town, but I don't actually know any names to put in my RP. I will say that I suggest players in this game practice PM safety.
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