Quartz Zebra

If you're suspicious of the Flamingo/Beagle alliance, do you mind swapping your vote from Beagle to Flamingo before you go? If we're able to lynch Flamingo, then that will help to clear up this whole mess. Beagle - if I were an Eliminator and Tuatara were my buddy, I probably would have let them die by this point. The only reason I'm still trying to convince people is because I think that there is something fishy going with the whole PM group, and lynching Flamingo will help my reads on the entire group. If Flamingo is village, then I'm almost certainly going to be lynched tomorrow. But... I really don't think they are. And there's only one way to find out. Also, for posterity's sake, could you list the people in this Group PM with you and Flamingo (unless there's a problem with that)? Also, a brief summary would be nice, but I understand if that takes a little longer to get done, and if you hold back things such as claims from the thread.

Well, I know I'm village... And the big problem is - this all happened through PM's, and we only have your word for it happening. If Onyx does turn out to be an Eliminator, there's a very good probability you are too. With the notes thing - has this been mentioned before now - I feel like there are constantly new details being added to the story of what happened in this PM, which means I have to take news of what allegedly happened with a grain of salt. (Have you mentioned the fact that Flamingo shared notes in the PM before just now? That would make me more likely to trust that story.) And why share these notes just within the PM, and not with the whole thread? Was there really anything in those notes that couldn't be shared? For that matter, why couldn't your defense of Flamingo that you presented in PM's be made to the thread, apart from the fact that you don't really seem to have any evidence for your defense except for a gut read? (And Dragonfly has already said that Flamingo claimed in the PM - I still believe my point stands. Pretty much any role (except perhaps the Dustbringer) could easily be an Eliminator role, so claiming won't prove anything regarding a players alignment.)

Interesting. When you support a late bandwagon, it's not suspicious at all, but when you don't support it, it's very suspicious. Just saying...

Unfortunately, directly copy-pasting is not allowed, though if you want to paraphrase, that would be much appreciated. Also, you're saying this was a group PM? I would also appreciate it if I knew which players were in it (unless you have some reason why you might not want to reveal that.) I think there's more of a case for Flamingo then you're letting on, though perhaps with the additional information presented in PM's you have a better read of them. Still, even if they are village, it will help influence my judgement on the others in this PM group, so I still think there's valuable information in their lynch either way, far more so than I see for Tuatara. Simply because they claimed a role doesn't mean they're automatically good, either - the Eliminators could fairly easily have any of the roles in this game except for Dustbringer, I think. I made a post earlier on this page with links to the relevant arguments for the major candidates. I recommend you read that. ...And I've been ninja'd by Crocodile.

The following people have not been online today: @Emerald Falcon, @Indigo Weasel The following people have been online today, but not posted: @Plum Rhinoceros The following people have posted today, but not voted: @Azure Mouse, @Fuchsia Ostrich, @Mauve Crocodile, @Pearl Chameleon , @Salmon Meerkat, @Turquoise Gorilla, @Violet Axolotl I encourage everyone to vote - more than a third of players haven't, which is worrying. If you're not caught up on the thread, I've linked the main arguments for why you should vote for any given player below (though I would much prefer, of course, for you to provide your own reasoning and analysis): Onyx Flamingo: Gecko's vote (why they voted on Gecko is near the bottom, but the whole post should definitely be read if you have the time this cycle): My analysis of a particularly suspicious line by Flamingo: Cream Tuatara: Original vote and analysis by Dragonfly: Analysis of Tuatara by Toucan (who later votes on Tuatara): Vultures vote/analysis on Tuatara: Amber Vulture: Penguin's original vote: Flamingo's vote on Vulture: Vulture's response to these votes/accusations: Please, I encourage everyone to read through the whole thread if able, or at least through the posts I linked, and try and vote for the candidate you're suspicious of. I think we need more players involved in the lynch if we want to be able to get to the bottom of this.

Fuchsia Ostrich (Note: Ostrich, I'd still like to hear more from you - this isn't me letting you off the hook.) Onyx Flamingo This line feels really off to me. Not in what Flamingo actually said, but in the way they say it. So far, we'd been lead to understand that Beagle had contacted a number of players in defense of Flamingo, and they subsequently changed their votes to Axolotl, then swapped to Swan. But... this doesn't sound like that. The way 'we' makes it sound like an organised coalition that is able to have conversations as a group, and that's very different to my understanding of what supposedly happened in PM's last cycle. Also, it feels like it's assumed that every player in this group is on the same side, and I think you can only really be sure of that fact as an Eliminator. (Note: Beagle has more votes on them currently, but he's also a major proponent of the conversation, so I'm more hesitant to lynch him - I'd rather lynch Onyx. If people don't follow me on the Onyx lynch, I'll swap my vote to Beagle, but I'd rather not have to.) *continues reading* Hmmm... I seem to have been late to the party. There are 3 votes on Flamingo already. I should really catch up before I start typing. That said, I'd appreciate @Cream Tuatara to explain why they're voting on Flamingo - we're much more likely to be able to catch Eliminators if they elaborate on what they say, like we've (hopefully) done with Flamingo.

Hmmm... I didn't miss that. I read it, and decided I'd try to think deeply about it later. And then I forgot about it. Thanks for reminding me. I admit, after Day 1, your posts have seemed a lot more villagery to me - one of the reasons I placed my vote on Ostrich this cycle, instead of trying to focus more on your posts. I do intend to go reread your previous responses now, though. Thanks again for reminding me. ...I'm not sure I follow that logic. If Lion is a villager, and they were a source of suspicion to the village, then why on Roshar would they want to prove to us that Lion was a Villager all along, so we can actually lynch an Eliminator this round instead of barking up the wrong tree?

Can't start them or receive them anymore, unfortunately. Our other Edgedancer died. That reminds me of the other thing I meant to ask - was Octopus active in PM's? If they were, they might have claimed to someone and subsequently been killed by the Eliminators. Or, the Eliminators were just lucky. Both are possible. Also, does anyone know how to turn off overwrite mode in Chrome? It's annoying me, and means I can't triple edit things like I want to (a large part of why I don't post a ton - I tend to quibble to much over what I say until the last possible moment.) ...On second thought, maybe you all shouldn't tell me.

Right. This system of a long post once each turn isn't really working out that well for me, so I'm trying to be more active. Let's see how long that lasts... The thing is, Beagle was the obvious target, meaning that there was a very high probability that Beagle would have been protected last night. The Elims would have known this, and taken care to pick someone else. It makes perfect sense to me. I don't really think that's necessarily grounds for suspicion. (Not that I wouldn't find different things about Beagle's attitude suspicious - still waiting for responses about what Beagle said when they asked others to switch their votes in PM's - the fact that it wasn't done in thread concerns me more than the fact that they didn't die.) Re: Gorilla's request: Tuatara - I read it as a playstyle thing that they bandy around votes a lot - the latest post makes it clear they're not that in touch with the game. I'd say I haven't really seen anything alignment indicative from them. Fuchsia Ostrich - Mild to moderate suspicion. They bandwagon, and generally try to avoid attention. Out of those four, they are by far the most suspicious to me. They've made 9 posts this game. Two posts are purely to do with the RP of the game, another two are deflections without real content, and one is asking for clarification from the GM on whether their vote swap was noted. One of the remaining posts was a poke-vote on Salmon Meerkat early in the day "because they have two animals in their name". It's not that I'm objecting to flippant poke-votes - there's not much else to do early day 1 - but it means that Ostritch has a grand total of 3 analysable posts, and all of them are one line long. In other word, they're very good at avoiding saying anything that could tie them down later in the game, while appearing to be active. So. Here are their three posts: ...I mean, why? What information could we possibly glean from an RNG death? Wouldn't that reduce the ability for conversation about who to lynch, thereby spreading more information about players stances on other players? Or is this a quick way to vote on Weasel without having to find a genuine reason? Again, no explanation why, hopping on a bandwagon (along with Albatross, who I've already discussed my suspicion of, and Beagle, who plenty of other people seem to be suspicious of, so...) - could you elaborate on why you found them suspicious? Do you have any other thoughts on any of the other players? Note: There's also an edit here - "Posted before I was done". You were posting one line, Ostrich... This is... fair enough, given what happened. NAI. In short, they're very good at pretending to be active, but when you break it down, post by post, then they say less than I do. I'd like, at the very least, to hear some thoughts on the game from Ostrich - from there, I'll decide whether to switch my vote. Pearl Chameleon - I have no notes on them, and I don't remember anything they've said. (I'm yet to reread Day 2 properly and add my notes.) Neutral. Meerkat - I really only remember RP stuff from them. Day 1, they had an anti-pink league... and I can't remember much beyond that. That's... not really a priority for me - certainly, I don't think I saw anything I found suspicious, otherwise I'd have noted it. (To clarify - with Ostrich, the lack of substantial posts a way of avoiding scrutiny, whereas with Meerkat, I read it as them just doing what's fun for them, which is perfectly fine.) ...And I said this was going to be a short post. Heh. I like to delude myself sometimes...

In my experience, generally the more complicated a theory you have for why someone might be guilty, the more likely it is to be wrong. (Not meant with any offence - I still struggle with this same mistake - it's a lot easier to call it out in other's posts than to see it yourself sometimes.) I also found the way they posted it a little odd, and not something that I would encourage (bandwagonning for bandwagonnings sake rather than out of genuine suspicion), but not necessarily something suspicious. To be honest, I feel like if Lion were an Eliminator they would have just tried harder not to be suspicious in the first place. Falcon - I am really not the person to tell you this, but it would be good for me to air my thoughts on the thread because I haven't done that enough generally, so I'll do my best to provide my highly subjective account. Day 1 - You had a lot of votes on a lot of different people, as no-one really knew what was going on, and were just kind of poke-voting and messing around, which creates a whole lot of noise in trying to figure things out. (Not that I'm saying messing around is a bad thing - people play SE to have fun.) At one point, I think nearly two thirds of the players had a vote place on them at some point in the cycle - I'm going to skip over the vast majority of that. The first player that looked like they might actually get lynched was Taupe Gecko - a player I was initially moderately suspicious of and then less so as the cycle went on as I gathered that the seemingly random voting habits and patterns that they were making was just part of their playstyle - an opinion that the other proponents of his lynch seemed to have gathered as well. There was also Ivory Dragonfly who attracted a fair amount of discussion (not so much by way of votes, though, IIRC) - I never really personally saw a case for them - they advocated against a Day 1 lynch, which I disagreed with, but still saw as well-intentioned. They also claimed to be a new player, which I personally dismissed as not relevant for this game, seeing as what makes this game so interesting is we're ignoring the traditional meta of experienced (and non-experienced) players. You'll want to see one of the advocates of that particular lynch for why they were suspicious of Dragonfly, but I believe it essentially boiled down to Dragonfly seeming like a more experienced player, and the claim of new player might be a way to take advantage of the meta (which I was ignoring, and also trust Sharders not to do something like that) or else was was receiving assistance from their Eliminator buddies which made them sound more experienced then they actually were. Like I said, I don't buy it, and not many others did either. I didn't see this carry on through to Day 2 at all. One of the major proponents in favor of a Day 1 lynch was the late Coral Swan, who also attracted 4 votes putting them on the block to get lynched (one of them from myself). All of the votes were for different reasons - one of the reasons which left me suspecting them more - if different people independently suspect the same person, then that might be because they got it right. I was personally also voting on them because they seemed to have very close links to people who I also suspected of being eliminators, such as Albatross (note: now that Swan is confirmed villager, and the way Albatross posted in Day 2, I'm now less suspicious of Albatross), who seemed strangely focused on the fact that Swan should not be lynched in one of Albatross' posts, and with a few hours to go on the lynch, I thought Swan was not only the most likely to be an Eliminator, they were also the one who would give the most information about other players with their deaths. (Spoiler alert: I was wrong. ) (Side note: I've never realized before how much I rely on pronouns to distinguish who I'm talking about. I've been making a conscientious effort to refer to everyone as they in my posts, regardless of my personal guesses at who their regular Shard account is, and I'm constantly having to go back and edit lines that then read as "They said this to them", etc. If any of these lines are confusing, I apologize - feel free to ask for clarification.) So, about 5 hours out from the end of the day, it looked like Swan was going to be lynched, and... I think it was Dragonfly otherwise, I can't remember. But then a bunch of votes retract from Swan, and someone who'd been nearly inactive the whole day got lynched instead (this is Melon Dingo) - as a way of encouraging people to be active. So... that's Day 1. Then Night 1, nothing particularly interesting happened. A couple people freaked out that Dingo was an Edgedancer, but I can't imagine Dingo claiming, so it's likely that was a lucky break for the Eliminators. Mainly, a few people were asked for clarification on what their motives were during the previous day, and loose end were tied up. ...including the lives of two more players, neither of whom seemed to be particularly active. I couldn't fathom out a reason for the Elim kill - I presume it was aiming to target a villager that wasn't so prominent that they were likely to be protected, but that's a guess. So then Day 2 starts, and the blame game begins again. My notes about Day 2 aren't there yet, and I can kind of tell with my ability to remember what various players did and what I thought of them. Players that were up for suspicion was still quite a broad list - Violet Axolotl, Onyx Flamingo, Magenta Albatross was mentioned a few times but there wasn't really a follow through on votes, Coral Swan, and Oxblood Beagle. In retrospect, I think a lot of these votes can be put down to the fact that some of the most prominent posters were also Beagle and Swan - which gives the village more opportunities to find something they find suspicious in their behavior. I personally didn't see anything suspicious in Beagle's behavior - for their kind of playstyle they seemed fairly normal, though it's trickier without past games to compare to. Swan, I've already talked about above, but I might have also fallen into a similar trap of over-analyzing and being too lynch happy with those who post more - something I'm going to try and avoid next cycle in favor of players who might post a bit less but who I'm suspicious of. For Onyx - I wasn't particularly suspicious of them either... and I can't even remember what the argument for their lynch was, because I haven't taken notes for Day 2 yet. Tut, tut, me. (Sorry, everyone.) But, quite a few people decided they weren't suspicious of Onyx and moved their votes from Axolotl, and then Swan, near the end of the Cycle - interestingly, Beagle has admitted to trying to convince people to do this - if anything makes me suspicious of Beagle, it's this. (Assuming a Beagle, Flamingo team, of course.) To the other players who received PM's from Beagle about this - did the post seem strange to you? How out of the blue was the PM? Did it seem desperate? In short, would you consider it likely Beagle is an Eliminator trying to save their teammate? Axolotl, there were a few votes on - I recall being mildly suspicious of them, mainly for trying to blend into the background and not say anything that might attract too much attention. They attracted a few votes from Beagle and the people he PM'ed - basically, I think Axolotl got a little depressed at what happened there, and Beagle felt a little guilty for causing it, so the votes then moved from Beagle to Swan. I feel like I'm missing so much, and filling the gaps with fluff that means nothing to anybody, but hopefully that helps a little? (If nothing else, maybe you'll be confused enough to go and read the past couple days yourself. ) Still, at least that says something about my gut feelings over the past couple days, though it wasn't as broad or as deep analytically as I'd ideally like. That will probably happen... tomorrow. Hopefully. If I don't disappear again. (I am really sorry about that, by the way.)

I'm really sorry for disappearing, everyone - I'm terrible at thinking about what I want to post, and then following through on that. To try and contribute to the discussion, I've got an analysis of Beagle that got deleted twice by my own idiocy as I refreshed to see new comments without copy-pasting it somewhere, leaving me very annoyed, and my notes that are my thoughts as of the end of Night 1 - I hope to post an updated version tonight. Beagle - nothing they said has been particularly alignment indicative, IMO. They don't really actually take a stance in all that many posts, which makes it difficult to read them. (I think that's just their playstyle, though, not necessarily them trying to dodge as an Eliminator.) Analytically, they're neutral. However, I think there's something to be said for the fact that they've helped to keep the chat alive, therefore I think there are many better candidates to lynch instead of Beagle. 1. Amethyst Scorpion 2. Azure Mouse 3. Amber Vulture 4. Charcoal Hyena Blending into the shadows - posting but not anything game relevant? Slight elim read. 5. Chartreuse Penguin 6. Coral Swan Corrected Beagle that there were no PM readers, however, backed up that claiming is dangerous. Not a read either way - I sense they'd do that regardless of alignment. Amendment (Page 4): The way they and other players I'm suspicious of interact (see Albatross), I feel suspicious of them for that. 7. Cream Tuatara 8. Emerald Falcon 9. Fuschia Ostrich The first person who proposed an RNG lynch seemed to do so as a joke, but Ostrich seems to have taken it seriously, or else they were after a convenient excuse. Except… there were so many people there that they could have voted on anyone and have had much better sounding reasons as an Elim, so… I can't really say anything for certain, except it feels slightly off to me. 10. Indigo Weasel 11. Ivory Dragonfly Seems innocent to me, even though I disagree about the 'no Day 1 lynch' argument. Village read. 12. Magenta Albatross Backed up the "Claiming is bad" meta. Trying to blend in with the crowd? Slight elim read. Further elim read when they completely ignored the major debate about gecko, and made a second vote on Scorpion "for no particular reason as of now except tone and in fear of getting a runaway wagon on coral" (who at the time of voting, had all of one vote on them.) For what should be obvious reasons, if Albatross does turn out to be evil, then that would make me suspicious of Swan too. 13. Mauve Crocodile 14. Melon Dingo 15. Mint Heron 16. Onyx Flamingo 17. Opal Lion 18. Oxblood Beagle Falsely claimed that there were PM readers. Unlikely that both of Swan and Beagle are evil. 19. Pearl Chameleon 20. Plum Rhinoceros 22. Saffron Iguana Advocates for trying to do something distinguishing in RP to make people stand out, which seems villagery. 23. Sage Kangaroo I agree with Sage's first post strongly. I want to say village read, though that is likely me supporting those who agree with me, so it's not a read to be relied on. (Not that any of them are, Day 1, of course.) 24. Salmon Meerkat 25. Sapphire Elephant Posts once, and doesn't say anything meaningful. Trying to blend into the background? Very slight elim read. 26. Scarlet Octopus I read it as someone who's just trying to have a good time - a slightly tongue in cheek parody of heavy analysis posts. No particular alignment reads - it seems like they're just here to enjoy themselves. 27. Sunburst Toucan I… don't really see your argument? It was a poke-vote amongst many poke-votes, and they said they were against a Day 1 lynch, whereas many others weren't. I'd say I have a moderate (for Day 1) Elim read on them, after Gecko. 28. Taupe Gecko Votes with no explanation. Elim read - please defend your vote on Octopus. Also, random lettering, which I don't know what it's supposed to be… Many pages later: And we're into IKYK territory. Great. If a Gecko lynch happens, that's fine, if it doesn't, that's also fine. I don't think I can add anything to this debate others haven't said already. 29. Turquoise Gorilla 30. Violet Axolotl

Is anyone else getting flashbacks to CGP Grey's Animal Kingdom Voting System videos from this? I keep on expecting when I load a new page that Queen Lion has updated the lynch vote system to preferential voting. (If you don't know what I'm talking about, you should check those YouTube videos out, because you are missing out.) (Yes, I know technically we're not RP'ing as our animals. But I felt like it.) The zebra clicked their feet together in a manner he hoped would get attention. He tried a slight cough, except the throat and teeth of this damnable zebra form prevented him from mustering the appropriately dramatic "hem, hem". A few wheezes later, he gave up and tried to ignore the embarrassment of this new form. "Hear ye, hear ye, I have a proclamation! A declaration, which all should pay heed to! I think I know who these traitors among us are!" A few astray glances flicked over his way in bemusement. "I'll just... er... say it, then, now that I have your attention, then? I... er... I do have your attention, don't I?" Zebra shuffled his feet. "Anyway..." I unfortunately think I left things too late to try and create my own lynch (a combination of a busy weekend + realizing that all the similar names meant I really needed to take notes after not taking anything in on my first readthrough) - if I did, I likely would have voted on @Magenta Albatross, who I felt was trying to blend in with the crowd in reiterating the 'Don't claim' message after several others had already done so, and then voting Scorpion "for no other reason except tone and in fear of getting a runaway vote on Coral." (For reference - Coral Swan had one vote at the time of posting, along with at least 8-10 others, while Gecko had three votes on them, and several others had two.) As such, I'm going to vote for Coral Swan. Part of this is a mild elim suspicion who is a current candidate for the lynch, but part of it is also because I feel like it nets us information about Albatross - if Swan is an Eliminator, it's quite possible Albatross is a new Elim on the same team. @Oxblood Beagle, yup. Just finishing up now.