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Quartz Zebra

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  1. Quartz Zebra
    @Sunburst Toucan, I’d like it if you could answer, specifically, this earlier question of mine. It would go a long way towards assuaging my suspicions if I knew that achieving your win conditions would not end the game. @Coral Swan You make a good point about factions being separate from independents, one that I hadn’t considered. Regardless, I think a reply from Toucan will clear this all up and possibly confirm your theory, so I’d still like him to respond. Are you intentionally quoting Alv to make a point, quoting him to try to imitate him and his style, or are you Alv himself trying to make us think you’re just an imitator, because it would be too obvious? Either way, thank you for the response. I wasn’t trying to lynch them? There’s no D1 lynch and though a lynch on them later if they were lying may have been useful, again, I’d rather go with the resolution to the Toucan debate that results in the least bloodshed, and least wastes discussion.
  2. Quartz Zebra
    “In there,” the man behind him snapped, all but shoving Radler through the door of the odd residence. “You’d hardly want others to know you’re working for me, would you? My groups are always...frowned upon...in most circles.” His face curved into a smile. Not an ugly smile, but a slim one which never reached his eyes, the eyes that seemed to be boring into the back of Radler’s skull. He peered in both directions down the street, satisfied that nobody was looking, and all but slammed the door behind him. As his employer paced towards him, Radler had a brief moment to survey the house he was in. Despite its considerable-looking size from the street, it seemed cramped, with only a few small windows high up in the wall and the lamp on the table providing light. The rooms themselves were spacious, but bare and dark, filled mostly with large tomes, presumably the latest in research. An involuntary shiver ran down Radler’s back. Not a prison, but close enough. Quitting his survey of the house, he turned to his contact. “What is your name?” he asked simply. “You may call me Domand,” he said after a brief pause, “though that is not my real name. Few know that, now. But this is as close as you will get.” Another mirthless smile touched his lips. “But you, Radler, could help advance our interests.” His hand reached into his pocket, procuring a thick, small card, on which was printed: The bearer of this card has been entrusted with Class I and II secrets of Shardic Information and Intelligence. His task is mine, and is not to be interfered with. Obey and keep silent, at my command. The card had no signature, instead a seal depicting a lightning bolt splitting a crown. Two olive branches and two spears together wove the rim, and the letters ASWA were clearly visible at the bottom. Before he could wonder what any of it meant, Domand leaned forward again, whispering. “You have elected to join me in our great task of resolving all conflict between the Shards. This means that you are bound to our mission now, life and death, and our secrets with you. This understanding is vital to what I am about to tell you next...” Well, I must say I still harbour reservations about Toucan’s claim, mostly out of fear of one of the three potential goals I mentioned earlier being his intention instead of actually being neutral. However, with the latest clarifications, it seems he may indeed be neutral, so I’ll elect to trust him for now. @Sunburst Toucan, as you have stated that your win condition will not impair any other faction’s, is it more passive? Something along the lines of “when the game ends, condition X is reached,” or is it “when condition X is reached, the game ends?” Also, Axolotl, I like your RP, but I didn’t really catch why you voted for me. Would you like to expound upon your suspicions/criticism of me?
  3. Quartz Zebra
    I think Toucan is lying. Point 1: There are five factions. This is explicitly in the rules. Unless there are several 7- or 8-Player factions out there to compensate for this, a 1-Player faction is rather inconceivable. Point 2: A one-player faction (if it existed at all)=a Shard. Probably a powerful one. So let’s run through possibilities: Survival—of course they’d claim this. And, of course, there’s no way to counterclaim, and we’d have to waste a lynch to confirm it. This leaves a sour taste in my mouth. Besides, I get the feeling that if Seonid had actually wanted to put Survival in the game, he would’ve put it in the ruleset. It’s hardly a secret she’s missing, and would be too obvious a secret for such an experienced GM to think would go unnoticed. I find Survival very, very implausible. Odium—Claiming would be suicide given SK!Odium. Discounting this. Autonomy/Ruin/Dominion: If any of these were actually SKs, claiming is again suicide. So they’re out. Therefore, I’m forced to conclude that this is a lie, pending clarification, and Toucan is doing one of three things: 1) They are claiming hoping to be ignored for the rest of the game, are a Shard, and are trying to create a “flash in the pan” that will soon be forgotten. Remaining under the radar for the rest of the game would be nice if they could avoid the noose on C2. 2) They are trying to be lynched. Presumably their faction has Endowment or Devotion and is trying to get us to waste an entire lynch trying to kill Toucan. If they have a time-based wincon, or need to take a few actions, this is a valuable delay tactic. 3) They are trying to create unproductive discussion on one member of their faction to prevent analysis on other players and allow them to take actions unquestioned. I think 2) and 3) are the most likely, and to avoid either of these situations I recommend either a scanner or a kill Shard take care of Toucan so our discussion here isn’t hyperfocused. Preferably the former, but the latter if necessary. If we keep a broad focus we can still keep an eye on Toucan while maintaining perhaps more productive discussion.
  4. Quartz Zebra
    Radler stood on the corner of the street, nervously peering around the gleaming silver buildings to watch the door to his “associate’s” house. Supposedly, if he waited long enough, the man would emerge. But he had waited for three hours, with no result, and the house still looked vacant as ever. Was a chance to be involved in the politics of yet another war between the Shards, to be another meddling Worldhopper, really worth this? He pivoted, ready to stalk away or to walk up to the silver door, and bang on it—he hadn’t decided which yet—when an icily cold hand seized his shoulder. Resisting the impulse to scream, Radler struck without thinking, driving his fist into the other fellow’s stomach. Feeling his breath leave him, the man doubled over, coughing, yet smiling grimly up at Radler. Radler backed away, seeing the other man rise, and studying his clothes, a tangled assortment of colours and styles. But they all somehow...fit...him. The other man, recovering his breath, spoke. “So, patience and resourcefulness. Perhaps my initial judgements were wrong. Another chance to serve may yet be offered you.” Radler gasped. This was his employer? The man’s gloved hand rose, pointing with surprising ferocity towards his house. “Come,” he said. “We have much to discuss about your role in this.” My apologies for the shorter RP. I’m somewhat constrained by time here. I feel boundlessly expectant to participate in this, the last Shard game, and I hope it’s memorable and fun. Anyone up for claiming a Shard? I’ve got Survival over here in my faction.
  5. Quartz Zebra
    @SE_Elhokar_Kholin I'm actually glad to hear the wincon come out. That actually soft clears you for me. To expand on that, I was given a one-time action to identify, as was Klade (Venli hasn't responded in turn yet). Assuming you have the same thing, that should soft clear me for you. (I'm sure I'm taking a slight risk coming out with this information, but if everyone has the same wincon, action, it really doesn't matter too much) If that's not enough, though, remember that we still haven't reached the interactions in the book where the Parshendi would think it's necessary to kill Gavilar. Namely, Gavilar would have had to come to me to express his interest in returning the old gods. This did not happen, although, I don't really have any proof either way. I'd imagine, however, that it would have had to have been at least after the black sphere was studied. Not sure if enough information actually came out of that study (yes, I know, this doesn't really go anywhere...but it's important to remember that the Parshendi did not plan on killing Gavilar until certain events happened.)
  6. Quartz Zebra
    Ahh, I had forgotten about the the ostracized people. Good point.
  7. Quartz Zebra
    Hour 6 had a little miscommunication on our side - I thought Klade was having Szeth protect Venli, so I protected Klade. Hour 6.5, I protected Venli. Additionally, Navani, Jasnah, and Wit could, to some degree, confirm that my purpose at that time was to protect my people, as I did ask them for help in determining if there were any threats to my fellow parshendi. Here's a complete list of players still active and my thoughts on why they may have wanted Gavilar dead: Dalinar - unless there was a wincon of "kill your brother in a drunken stupor", I can't think of a reason Dalinar would want Gavilar dead. Amaram - I don't think Amaram would have any reason to kill Gavilar either...although I could see Amaram being shady. Don't see any reason for him to kill Gavilar though Tearim - again, don't see any obvious reason why Tearim would want Gavilar dead. Navani - Perhaps something came up studying the black sphere that caused Navani to fear Gavilar would do something he should't? Still doesn't seem likely. Ialai - Perhaps Ialai found some information that pointed to Gavilar being responsible for redirecting her kill action onto Torol? Jasnah - only thing I can think of is similar to Navani...seems unlikely though. Ivory - Interesting case here...if the study of the black sphere resulted in anything, Ivory I think would be the most likely to actually perform the kill Elhokar - this one is actually kind of easy...Elhokar wanted to be king. Aesudan - wanted Elhokar to be king Adolin - I find this one really tough...unless Adolin found some proof that Gavilar was responsible for Renarin's death? That seems even more unlikely though. Wit - Who knows what Wit's motives are. Liss - Cause some chaos? Drunk Beggar - This is an interesting one. Gavilar actually PMed me asking for help attacking Drunk Beggar. Now, he claimed it was so that Kelek could end up protecting DB, but that may have been a reason to respond if DB found out about it. Ash - not really sure what to think here. Don't see an obvious connection Darkness - Seems like a decent possibility actually. If Nale found out Gavilar was doing something that may result in the return of of the radiants. Kelek - don't see a lot of reason for Kelek to be involved. Especially since Gavilar was apparently trying to help with his wincon. Eshonai - If we had gotten to the point where I was involved, it likely would have been Szeth rather than me...and we have a couple confirmations that Szeth was not involved. Venli - same Klade - same So, I'm seeing the following as the most likely killers: Ialai (low), Ivory (low), Elhokar (med), Aesudan (med), Darkness (high)
  8. Quartz Zebra
    I have now completed that wincon. I had the wincon to keep all Parshendi alive for 2 hours. Both Klade and Venli can confirm this was the case as I was discussing throughout the wincon with them who my best protect target would be. (Szeth could have as well, but someone seems to have killed him) This was completed with the most recent cycle turnover. As with the rest of you, I would definitely like to find Gavilar's killer now.
  9. Quartz Zebra
    *Eshonai hummed to Consolation* I am truly sorry for the death of your king. *Eshonai hummed to Annoyance* I do not see why you are pointing fingers at my people for this. We have no desire to jeopardize this peace treaty. In fact, I will dedicate myself to finding your king's killer.
  10. Quartz Zebra
    Eshonai continued to observe the Alethi at the party. Oddly, time seemed to have slowed down. Who knows what these fabrials the Alethi possessed could do.
  11. Quartz Zebra
    *Eshonai attuned to Anticipation* The king's daughter was walking up to her...what could she want? She was one of the few women here who actually seemed to say what she meant...perhaps this would be a pleasant experience.
  12. Quartz Zebra
    Eshonai wandered through the palace, simply absorbing the sights. This was incredible! She had never seen anything of the sort, and was nearly permanently humming to awe with everything she saw. The only real times she wasn't awed, but more curious, was when her gaze fell upon these Parshmen. So similar to the Listeners, yet so different. Where was their music? Did they feel something was wrong whenever they looked at her, as she did with them? If only she could get one to talk, but even that was proving impossible. She was stood, mouth slightly ajar, admiring a...What had they called it? Ah yes, a portrait, of someone's mother, when a dirty man in a ragged costume approached and waved a bottle in her direction. Not knowing the protocols, since everyone else seemed to be drinking from glasses or tankards, she gingerly accepted. "Thank you," she said to gratitude. Taking a drink, she almost wished she hadn't. This tasted like something that oozed from a greatshell's carcass. "Thank you," she repeated, handing it back, before turning to find more things to gawk at.
  13. Quartz Zebra
    Gods, I missed the whole last cycle! I apologize profusely. You see, I just got Oathbringer and I dived right into it and it sort of consumed all conscious thought I had for a small time. I can only think about how thankful I am that I wasn't completely needed.
  14. Quartz Zebra
    Okay, it looks like the vote is moving away from my initial Kangaroo and more towards Mouse, so I'll move my vote like so. On to the next item on the docket, the order of who it would be best to vote for. There are 7 players, 2 guaranteed elims, leaving 5 other players. Of those players, 1 is an elim. that leaves us a 1/5 chance of finding them just by random chance. However, if we wait, then the elims will kill off one village per turn, we kill the two we know of, leaving us with 3 players left in two turns. One is still an eliminator, and I like the odds of 1/3 a lot better than 1/5. Statistically, it makes sense for us to wait. However, I also understand that in three turns, discussion is going to be down since the elims will probably try to kill those who contribute more to the discussion. But the thing is, if we get it down to three people, it will be a much simpler game. Right now, there are a lot of moving parts and it is difficult to analyze too many people at once. Once the three are the only ones left, we can compile analysis on the others much more effectively since there is only a need to look at three people instead of 5. Don't get me wrong, Analysis at this point is going to be what helps the village win. I'd rather have more opinions than none, but the longer we have to contemplate these things, the better.
  15. Quartz Zebra
    I agree that dragging this process out would be the most beneficial. Not only wold our options be more limited, therefore raising our chances of guessing the right person, but it will give us (or more specifically me) more time to analyze and form the opinions on those who remain. For now though, either one of the confirmed eliminators should do. I'd rather go for kangaroo since they give me the creeps, but I'll go for what the rest of you guys think in the end.
  16. Quartz Zebra
    I can confirm that I am not an eliminator. However, I am also aware that that is not an argument people can accept. If it helps, I have relatively little information and I've been basing all of my recent decisions on points and arguments on very recent posts. I apologize for not being able to give you any more reason to trust me than that.
  17. Quartz Zebra
    You know, I'm feeling Albatross at this point. Yeah, that's the right move, right?
  18. Quartz Zebra
    Uhhhh . . . Sapphire Elephant.
  19. Quartz Zebra
    Gah. There seems to be little choice, so I'll vote on Indigo Weasel - I wish I'd focused more on the current day earlier so I could raise an alternative lynch candidate - I don't like how much the focus on Weasel has stifled other conversation. Hopefully, my reread of the thread will be published tonight, which should help to provide new talking points. On the reread, I'm finding Heron's posts to be quite suspicious, but I can't quite put into words how, except as a gut read. I'm hoping to post a more thorough analysis of them in particular, but I'm not sure I'll be able to. (Sorry Heron - I hate it when people call me an Elim for 'gut reads' I can't defend against - I'll try and work out what it is that's bugging me for you to be able to respond to properly.) (Also, I know exactly which player Heron is now. Interesting.)
  20. Quartz Zebra
    I was PM'ed after PM's were opened, and asked about Axolotl and Weasel. I typed out an extended response analysing both of them, then realised that while I've mentioned my thoughts very briefly, I probably should share them in the thread and encourage others to do the same. Also, this helps let people know that I'm not dead, especially since my next post might take a while - I'm trying to do a reread of the game so far and see if I can find any more information with the benefit of hindsight. By the way - Orlok/Impartial mod - I'm assuming since I typed it it's OK for me to repost the analysis even though it was originally in a PM - please correct me if I'm wrong. Axolotl - The old Axolotl said some things that were kind of suspicious, but everything to do with the new Axolotl seems fairly NAI to me (which could mean they're a good Elim or just that the old Axolotl had a strange playstyle that seemed suspicious to both of us.) If anything, the 'new voting system' post seems like it would be suicide for an actual Eliminator to post - there are so many easier ways to justify voting on someone that won't draw attention - that I can't really see an actual Eliminator doing it. But then, the fact that I (and presumably other players) can't see an Eliminator doing it might mean they do it for exactly that reason, but then you start heading into IKYK territory, which makes it impossible to decide anything at all. So, generally - either they're village, or they're a very gutsy Eliminator that deliberately drew attention to themself. EDIT: I type all this out, and can't be bothered changing it now, but the Ostrich - Axolotl dialogue at the end of last cycle seemed incredibly weird to me, looking over it now. Ostrich chose fairly weak reasons for lynching Axolotl - eventually, someone has to start a bandwagon with the vote manips, otherwise we wouldn't get anywhere - and then immediately drops the line the moment Axolotl defends themself. That could be a villager changing their mind, but it feels more like a question from the same team designed more to make Axolotl seem less suspicious than anything else. I'm hoping to see more of the new Ostrich before I judge - it seems unfair to lynch them before they get a chance to say something - but I'll be keeping a close eye on how both of them act - particularly around each other, in the reread and going into the future. Weasel - I found this post to be suspicious the first time I read it, but when I went back and looked at all of their posts, it almost seemed to be more in keeping with their general playstyle, and I ended up coming to a similar problem as I did with Axolotl - if they were an Elim, I'd think they wouldn't post a line like that, as it draws too much attention. And unlike Axolotl, I really don't see Weasel as being sneaky enough to try and double bluff that. So, my read on them is that they're a fairly chaotic villager, but a villager nonetheless. Of the two, I would almost certainly lynch Axolotl - it also gives us information on Ostrich if they're evil, which is nice, but also because I can't really buy the idea that Weasel's an Eliminator.
  21. Quartz Zebra
    I'm really sorry for disappearing, everyone - real life got in the way. I did actually try and perform analysis for how suspicious 3 different players were (for the record, that's Weasel, Kangaroo, and Axolotl), and for each one of them, I started analysing their posts only to change my mind the more I read about the likelyhood (or lack thereof) of them being Elim - there just wasn't enough there for me to really be suspicious of them. I had hoped the death of Beagle or Flamingo would be enlightening, but it unfortunately wasn't - sorry Beagle, and sorry thread, for distracting everyone for part of a Cycle. To be honest, while I'm not overly suspicious of Meerkat, I have a slight to moderate trust read on Crocodile, and don't really see them as being an Eliminator (though it's tough to say - they haven't really posted the most.) So, I'm going to vote for Salmon Meerkat, mainly because I don't think there's time to start my own analysis for a lynch, and I'm not really sure anymore who I'd advocate for right now if I did. I'm probably going to try and make a very quick "Why you should vote for Crocodile/Meerkat" thing like I did last round (expect that in the next half an hour or so), because the voter turnout is pathetic right now. (Admittedly, that didn't seem to help much last time, but... second time lucky?) This is really worrying - the solution for having little to no information at this point in the game is to talk more, not less - at this point, we've just made it easier for the Eliminators to swing the lynch.
  22. Quartz Zebra
    Hmmm... this feels really genuine to me, tbh. And, honestly, if you were an Eliminator, I wonder whether you'd have tried so hard to keep Flamingo alive and cast so much suspicion on yourself. If a lynch forms tomorrow on you or Flamingo, I won't argue against it, but... I might not argue for it, either. At the very least, I feel like perhaps I've tunneled to the point where I wasn't presenting my views on other players - something I really think I should do (I hope to get analysis of one player (not in this PM Group) up tonight) and hopefully spread the discussion around a lot more than we're currently doing. If we want the Eliminators to hide, keeping the discussion on 1 or 2 players each Cycle is going to help them a lot more than it helps us, and I don't honestly think there's anything further I can say that will be useful that the thread hasn't heard from me already. I may well try and encourage discussion on several different players tomorrow, in the interests of preventing the village from being too narrowly focused, as I think we were the past couple cycles. I know this post feels like a total 180, but... I suppose I'm a lot less certain since yesterday.
  23. Quartz Zebra
    Dangit. If I'd been online at rollover, I might have tried to swap my vote over to Beagle to have a better chance of lynching one of the PM group. (By the way, Dustbringer, if you read this - if you have to lynch one of the group, I'd recommend Flamingo, because it would be more detrimental to the village to lynch Beagle or Dragonfly if we got it wrong, seeing as they both drive discussion. Then again, if you're significantly more suspicious of Beagle than Flamingo, go and do your thing. If you don't suspect any of the PM group, or are an Eliminator yourself... from my position, that's bad, bad news for the village. @Oxblood Beagle - you said we would get 'hard evidence' from Tuatara's death, but honestly, I don't see what we've learned, other than this core group of you, Dragonfly and Flamingo is looking even more suspicious to me. What hard evidence did we gain from Tuatara's death? These were the soothed votes from last night: Cream Tuatara - voted for Flamingo, swapped to Beagle close to the end of the day. The soothed vote could have been to save either of them. I can see this being a villager soothe - while I think the Eliminators tried to save Flamingo by lynching Tuatara, they can't all have been Eliminators - it's quite possible that this was a villager who was genuinely suspicious of Tuatara, and thought that whatever vote they made would be a vote against whatever Village Soother wanted to do, so they soothed it. Beagle - Vote Soothed. This could be me tunneling, but I see this as a Village Soother as well. (Either that, or Beagle's a Rioter, and forgot that Rioting cancels his own vote.) Mauve Crocodile - Rioted to Tuatara from Flamingo. This is just gut, but I think if any were Eliminator manipulations, the Rioter vote would be it. To a villager, Rioting and Soothing are of equal power level - to a Soother, you can vote on who you're suspicious of and negate a vote off someone you aren't. The advantage Rioters have is being able to hide in the shadows - they don't have to state their preferences or prepare a defense for why they Rioted a vote to someone because it was all done in PM's. Also, I feel like I could very well be tunneling by this point as well - something I'm trying to keep an eye on to make sure I don't get too blinkered with my suspicion of the PM Group. Village Soothers and other antagonists of lynching Flamingo/Beagle - Now that Tuatara is proven to be a villager, I ask for your help - killing just one of the core group should help us gather the alignments of all three of them, and I don't feel like that's the only way at this stage to move them back into a trust read. It would be so much better to confirm that they are villagers now rather than let them slip under our noses and perhaps lose the game of it. At the very least, if we lynch one of them and they do turn out to be village, we'll be able to move on, and perhaps that will allow everyone to analyse someone else and perhaps capture an actual Eliminator. I find the defense of Flamingo to be flimsy at best - reliant on PM's the village can't see and the assumption that Tuatara is really suspicious and this is some kind of attempt to protect him (we know how that turned out...) So please, I encourage you all - if none of these three players dies tonight to reveal their alignment, then we should make it a priority to lynch one of them tomorrow. My personal preference would be to lynch Flamingo, as the least detrimental of the three to lynch in case we get it wrong, but I would support a lynch of either of the other two if it came down to it. Errr... 1) You say that you'll explain your analysis in the morning, and 2) imply that you're going to have a pinchhitter take over in the morning, which is kind of contradictory. (Assuming I parsed that last sentence correctly, of course.) I would be more interested in hearing your take on the events of the last day, to be honest, and whether you feel like that casts suspicion on this PM Group. After we lynch one of them, if they're an Eliminator, everyone will say "Oh yeah, of course I was suspicious of them the whole time. Heh. Shame I didn't vote on them." By asking as many players as possible about this now, hopefully we can get as much information about where everyone stands as possible. (Also, I really hope I'm not wrong about this. If I am, this will be embarrassing...)
  24. Quartz Zebra
    I am tempted by this, but I feel as though Flamingo is also rather sketchy - they may be a probable villager to you, but I don't see that. I honestly don't see enough evidence for Tuatara being an Eliminator that I would feel confident swapping my vote over to them. They're not a particularly insightful villager, by any means, but I think it's a stretch to say that they're any sketchier than quite a few other lurkers/poke-voters that don't bother to explain their thought process. (See my analysis post on Ostrich, for example, at the beginning of this day.) I see their actions today as a villager interested in self-preservation. Maybe I'm wrong. I guess we'll find out in a couple hours.
  25. Quartz Zebra
    Hmmm... Thankyou. I didn't realize you were able to bring people into a group PM later, without restarting the PM altogether. Is that really enough to make you "sure", though? Admittedly, I didn't see the full argument, but it doesn't seem like something that would convince me beyond all reasonable doubt the way it has done to you. It certainly doesn't seem something that would be hard to fake. In fact, I'd argue as an Eliminator, it can be very useful to be able to 'change your reads' on people, thereby being able to vote for whoever is most advantageous for you in the lynch (for example, if there was a close lynch between a Villager and Eliminator, the Eliminator Team would be able to 'progress their thought' towards suspicion of the villager, thereby saving their teammate. Both last cycle, between Swan and Flamingo, and this cycle, between Tuatara and Flamingo, could well be a testament to this. Seeing as the vote on Tuatara seemed to start more or less as a poke-vote, you do seem to be very determined to stick to it. I... probably would be under similar circumstances, but I have to consider ulterior motives behind you trying to defend Flamingo. I really don't think Aman's speech patterns match Albatross's, but that might just be me. If I were to take a punt, I'd say Aman may not even be playing AG4, because they want to work on their serial. (Although I agree it doesn't really matter.)
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