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Violet Axolotl

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  1. Violet Axolotl
    *scratches head thoughtfully*
  2. Violet Axolotl
    It could have hit a smoker or something.
  3. Violet Axolotl
    D1: D2: D3: Okay, so @Ivory Dragonfly, @Melon Dingo, and @Sapphire Elephant all have yet to have a vote at end of cycle this game. We need to get something from you all. And we probably won't kill you for it. Also, @Azure Mouse and @Plum Rhinoceros have only voted once. Any suspicions/trusts that you think are worth sharing? If not, feel free to shoot me a PM and we can bounce ideas off each other before we let the thread tear them to pieces . I'm also blasted confused about the whole vote manip thing D1, so I figure I'll go ahead and say that on D1 I Rioted Pearl's vote onto Gorilla (cancelling my own vote there). Haven't done anything with my role since. Consolidated reads:
  4. Violet Axolotl
    I think you underestimate the level of gambits some players might be willing to attempt. Meerkat is a strong village read, more so if Hyena flips elim, but definitely not confirmed. I wouldn't claim to him if I was the Coinshot.
  5. Violet Axolotl
    Yeah, I get that. I partly just think it’s healthy to acknowledge the possibility where Hyena is village, which nobody had done prior to me. I’m curious, though, what info would a village flip give us? We’d have Falcon as confirmed village, and probably a confirmed elim Lurcher/Mistborn (which is likely anyways). I’m not sure what it would say about all the people pushing to vote out Hyena, but it certainly wouldn’t be conclusively helpful with regards to finding the next elim.
  6. Violet Axolotl
    The play is called a Wounded Buffalo Gambit, and it’s very effective. Usually the elims would send in both the kill and protect, for example if a Mistborn rolled Steel, so as to still have the normal NK. My point is that the elims want the vote tied up, almost always. Voting out a villager is often not worth the cost in information.
  7. Violet Axolotl
    Wouldn’t it make sense for an elim Lurcher to protect Hyena last night, regardless of Hyena’s alignment? Hyena was a pretty obvious Coinshot target given the discussion in the thread during the Night, and a Lurch would be an easy way for the elims to derail the vote this cycle. I don’t trust Hyena, but I do feel like the level of confidence of some players is way higher than it has any right to be. It sorta feels like 3+ copies of Matrim got together to dig a tunnel (sorry Mat, whoever you are ).
  8. Violet Axolotl
    If anyone isn't comfortable with voting either Gorilla or Falcon, feel free to join me on Pearl. I got distracted and never ISO'd Falcon, so I'm not going to make an uninformed vote switch there, and I'm sticking to my gut on Gorilla.
  9. Violet Axolotl
    Honestly, I have no idea. My reasoning for voting on them last cycle is still valid, and it didn't depend on Meerkat's alignment that much (or perhaps vil!Meerkat fits with my guess as to how Pearl being an elim under those circumstances, but elim!Meerkat is theoretically possible there as well). So yeah, I'll vote for Pearl. But I don't currently have anything to add to my case, so I'm not sure I will be able to make that a viable train. I don't know how I feel about Gorilla, since I went from suspicious D1 to a playstyle read last cycle (which is basically neutral plz contribute more), and I have the feeling that their reaction sort of fits with the player profile I gave them after D1. My gut feeling after D1 was also that D1 was v/v/v, so I'm going to stick with that. Seems likely that we'll find out by the end of this cycle as things stand. I'm going to try and write some stuff about Falcon before the end of the turn, and I might end up switching to vote on them. So far that's based on their D1 vote and some gut based on what they've said today, but I'll see if there's more to say there. Dyring was pleasantly surprised when the latest Tineye message was found, not "decorating" his inn's walls, but rather posted to a board just outside. He was less pleasantly surprised by the fact that the note implicated his friend Kellehrt. After a short conversation with the fellow, Dyring resolved to protect him from any mobs before true justice could be meted out, but eventually it turned out the whole thing was a ruse, and the Kellehrt hadn't even vandalized his inn the other night. Of course, the lack of major destruction of his property didn't mean that Dyring didn't have work to do. The kid Loenthal had put up in a room needed checking in on, although the boy oddly independent. Still, a quick look in would ease Dyring's conscience. And after that, well, by now someone else was bound to have made a mess, either in their room or by the bar. A bit of cleaning would help settle his mind back on the problem of finding the Spiked.
  10. Violet Axolotl
    I think a “suboptimal” elim kill could be a gambit trying to make the village question their assumptions. If the elim team has a fairly risk-tolerant member (which I would suspect if Pearl flips elim), then I can see that sort of a play. But it probably boils down to something about roles, like you say.
  11. Violet Axolotl
    You might want to do a more detailed read of the thread, my good fellow.
  12. Violet Axolotl
    Well, phooey, now I have to actually do some thinking this cycle. And @Salmon Meerkat, that post is 10/10 on the Aman scale . Meerkat.
  13. Violet Axolotl
    My first thought past Meerkat is that I don’t like Pearl, specifically because of Meerkat’s response to my suggestion of what happened. Which is kinda weird, because the fact Meerkat was the one to push against voting for Pearl means I wasn’t right in the first place. But I think that fits with Meerkat’s response, since he knew that the elims didn’t ignore the Pearl train. It doesn’t guarantee Pearl is evil, since Meerkat’s response could just come from a place of knowing I’m wrong and trying to fake being villagery. As for the rest, well, at least we have a fair amount of material to sift through.
  14. Violet Axolotl
    That was supposed to be a compliment, not an accusation of identity.
  15. Violet Axolotl
    I rate this post 7/10 on the Aman scale.
  16. Violet Axolotl
    You know, that’s not a bad point. Why didn’t I think of that?
  17. Violet Axolotl
    Well, farewell Meerkat. Edit: Will note that the Coinshot is likely not elim, based on the double-kill on Octo. Doesn't preclude the possibility of multiple Mistborn acting independently, and no actual Coinshot.
  18. Violet Axolotl
    That one did, I can’t say about the others, that is more a vague feeling that this has happened before. But Araris has also been elim a lot recently, so who knows.
  19. Violet Axolotl
    In the last LG elim!Sart got 3 votes early D1 (someone, then elim!Araris, then Kas). None of the elims reacted (other than Araris’s vote), and eventually people just moved on. It wasn’t perfect, because Sart died in a tie later, but had players been more active, Sart probably wouldn’t have been voted out that game. The situation with the votes on you D1 looks similar to me.
  20. Violet Axolotl
    By the time Dyring finished painting over the mess on the wall of his inn, the day was late enough for some customers to start trickling in for drinks. Unfortunately, he hadn’t had enough time to clean the porch from the morning’s ashfall, but work came before... other work. The guests paid better than the chairs, and there wouldn’t be an inn without the guests. Still, Dyring took a few minutes to at least clean off the front door. His sign requesting help had gone missing during the night, so he posted the request again before settling in to the routine of serving drinks. I’m currently happy with how the votes are playing out, given my suspicion of Iguana. However, I’d also like to reiterate my dislike of the votes around Pearl last cycle. In the last LG, in addition to other times in the past, elims have ignored large numbers of votes early in D1 on one of their teammates (or even added to them) because such trains tend to die following a response like Meerkat’s (and generally a villager is the one bringing the objection if the target is elim). I’m short on time, but I did look at Pearl’s posts and nothing stuck out to me as particularly villagery. So I’ll request that anyone feeling like their vote is currently being wasted consider switching onto Pearl.
  21. Violet Axolotl
    Dyring was up bright and early, preparing the day's meals, and while fetching some water he found the messages disfiguring the side of his inn before anyone else. Scowling, he fetched some cleaning supplies, but after a couple of aborted attempts realized that he would be best off just repainting. Blasted Tineyes think they can leave graffiti wherever they please. I'd bet boxings to clips that at least one of them is Spiked. By that point, he could hear some of the guests movin gabout inside the common room, so he abandoned the efforts until later. The easy routine of serving breakfast gave Dyring a chance to collect his thoughts on the events of the previous night and day. Okay, so if D1 was a v/v/v, then the low-risk elim play is to not move votes. Let the village scramble and then get hopelessly lost in the aftermath. Someone with slightly higher tolerance might move their vote around simply because taking risks early is generally not expected of elims. But there wouldn't really be any other benefit. In this case we would expect elim votes spread around, almost certainly no more than two on a single target. And probably not doubling up, unless Pearl is elim (for reference, Pearl had several votes which all dropped away, which also happened to an elim in the last LG). If Pearl is elim, then I'd say that either Swan or Penguin is likely to be as well. It also seems unlikely that both Gorilla and Iguana are elims, or the easy play is for them to vote together. Right now I'd probably lean toward Iguana over Gorilla, on account of the things I dislike about Gorilla looking more like playstyle things like elim things (I still dislike them though!). Also, with the Croc flip we can expect a slightly higher proportion of villagers voting for Iguana, for whatever that's worth. So if Iguana is elim, who might we expect the other elims to be? If the elims have a rioter or zinc Mistborn, then we could expect one of them to actually be voting for Iguana. A rather safe way to get a bit of credibility. The last situation is e/e/v, which did come up in the last LG and was something the elims were able to take advantage of because of how the lack of vote action didn't fit super well with 2 elims being about to die. This does sort of match up with what happened in our D1, so I'm not going to discount it, despite both Gorilla and Iguana being active at cycle end and not working together. I also have some other things I need to do, so I'm going to vote on Pearl and leave it at that for now. I'll definitely take some time to read Pearl's posts and try to come up with some other suspicions as well.
  22. Violet Axolotl
    After the crowd dispersed from where Riggs had been killed, Dyring gently hefted the corpse over his shoulder and began the long walk up the road and back to his inn. The day had been a disaster, an innocent man killed, but it was hard to see things playing out any other way. Dyring himself had pushed for the death of one of the townsfolk, and that person might just as easily have been an innocent bystander. But, well, some things just had to be done. And someone had to take care of the bodies. Dyring had dug a grave out back once it was clear that the day would end in violence. No sense in digging more than one, with the ash coming down like it was, but putting the body to rest was the most he could do for Riggs at this point. Once the burial was complete, Dyring rounded the front of Dyring's Inn and began to sweep the porch off. The night was when he had enough time really keep the place clean, especially given that still none of the townsfolk or the newcomers had taken up his offer of work. Dyring lost himself in the rhythm of the broom for a while, mulling over the day's events. He figured the most important thing that nobody knew was whether any of the saboteurs was actually in danger. Given the number of Allomancers in the town, the Spiked likely had their fair share of Rioters and Soothers, and it was unlikely they would let one of their own perish if the crowd couldn't make up its mind. Of course, if everyone had been totally off base, then focusing on the villagers that had nearly died was something of a waste of time. Hopefully some events would transpire during the night to clear that up. If not, chances are more innocents would die to mob rule during the day. Having swept the ash off the surface of the porch, Dyring turned to the pair of chairs that sat off the to the side of the entrance to his place. He pulled a small brush from his belt and meticulously cleaned first the left chair, then the right, using a soft touch to keep the ash from rubbing into the grain of the wood. As Dyring worked, he couldn't help but see his Elly in one of the chairs, smiling back at him. Eventually, his work done, Dyring fled from the mists and his memories into the dubious safety of the inn. He took a good long while to catch his breath and blink his eyes clear. There was still work to be done, and getting lost in the past wouldn't make it any easier. That was what he told himself, at least.
  23. Violet Axolotl
    "I assure you good fellow, I detest the sight of blood. It's blasted difficult to scrub out of just about anything." Dyring held up his apron. "See, bloodstains just refuse to come out of clothing. But I'll tell you, sometimes the blood is necessary. Lots of folks would have missed out on their chicken if I'd been too squeamish about getting blood on my clothes to butcher them."
  24. Violet Axolotl
    I actually embrace the opportunity to murder my fellow SE players with great joy and lifting of my heart! If it's random anyways, I can vote for whomever I want and not feel too bad when they die and have to chill with Fifth, Wilson, and El in the dead doc .
  25. Violet Axolotl
    I guess my point would be that you can't vote better than the material you are given to base your vote on. The material is extremely poor D1, so nearly all (village) votes are no better than random. There's no getting around it, so we might as well embrace that, rather than delude ourselves that the person we vote out today is actually likely to be an eliminator, or at least more so than the base 20-25% chance.
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