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Violet Axolotl

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Everything posted by Violet Axolotl

  1. Violet Axolotl
    I don't think I know enough about who is behind Gorilla to make a good guess about that, and the only other good data point we have is Hyena, who Gorilla didn't explicitly try to distance from. I think the train on Gorilla sprung up rather quickly D3, so the elims might not have been prepared for distancing. I also rescind what I said about Alb being village irrespective of Cham, mostly because I still want more than 1 elim to have voted on a primary train D1, and if Cham flips village, I think we need to look at Alb closer.
  2. Violet Axolotl
    This thing:
  3. Violet Axolotl
    This rule set has plenty of room for powerful elim roles, because it also has plenty of room for powerful villager roles. If the entirely of the elim team’s roles are Thug+Mistborn, I would judge them severely underpowered. I’m going to put my own vote on Chameleon. I also think that, largely independent of Chameleon, Albatross is likely to be village based on the vote interactions that Meerkat pointed out.
  4. Violet Axolotl
    Dyring stopped polishing a glass and glared at Scimon. "No more drinks until you start helping us out with this mess. The town's in shambles, our mistborn is dead, and what have you done about it?" He raised his voice, addressing the whole room. "That goes for the rest of you lot as well! No drinks or rooms for anyone that doesn't put some visible effort towards finding the Spiked."
  5. Violet Axolotl
    That is a good point, and my apologies to Vulture for discounting you when I made that argument. I do think it’s important to have somewhere in the back of your head the thought, “would player X do this as elim?” It’s not always a helpful line of reasoning, especially because elims can play with it to make IKYKs, but it can turn some actions from elim to NAI at least. Something like “confirmed not helpful isn’t the same as confirmed not village”, which is unfortunate. And yeah, like I said earlier, I’ve basically got no defense for D2 or D3. Family over ISOing and all that.
  6. Violet Axolotl
    Going to say that I find Penguin's case against Chameleon pretty convincing. In an attempt to convince Meerkat that I am not in fact Kas doing a poor impersonation of someone, I'm actually going to get some sleep tonight. Probably going to be ~10 hours before I post again. Hopefully Chameleon will have responded by then, so I can make a slightly more informed choice of whether or not to move my vote.
  7. Violet Axolotl
    I'm pretty sure if I were doing an Araris impersonation then I'd be RPing a grouchy old man (or woman, in the case of Arenta) that whacks people and I'd be saying "bother" a whole lot. Although apparently Dyring doesn't believe in Koloss, so maybe you're on to something .
  8. Violet Axolotl
    Dyring was wiping down the front windows of the inn when Kellerht stopped by and mentioned his concerns about Dyring's actions over the last couple of weeks. Dyring frowned at his friend and asked, "You're kidding, right?" But they both knew that Kellerht wasn't, and the farmer's already stony face hardened further. Dyring turned his gaze back to his unfinished work for a moment before sighing. "All right. I'll see if I can come up with something to convince you. But there are things that need doing around here. So if you want me to take time to defend myself, you better help out with the work." With that, he tossed his rag to Kellehrt, set down his bucket of water, and headed inside to gather his thoughts. Unfortunately I've got a fair amount of work (and scheduled fun things) to do today, so I won't be on to doing my own analysis of other players until possibly later tonight. However, right now, based on the reads list I gave last cycle and the updated colors on the D1 votes, I'll vote for Mint Heron. The main thing I have to say about D1 is: why would elim!Axolotl claim the role/action that I did (aside from the benefit of me being able to ask this now, of course )? I myself was confused by the vote manip D1 and missed that Pearl's vote had been claimed to be Soothed (my lack of knowledge is not confirmable, but true nonetheless). At the very least, anyone entertaining that I am elim should also entertain that I lied about my role and the vote manip came from elsewhere on the elim team. With regards to Days 2 and 3, the main thing I have to say is that these were near the end of my winter holiday break, so I was trying to spend time with family more than work out things, which is why I didn't do a whole lot of looking into, well, anyone. Maybe elim!me would have tried harder? I'd like to think that being with family is more important than being elim though. I feel like I should say something about the person Meerkat believes me to be and who Hyena claimed to be being elims together and losing 2 teammates in 4 cycles, but that's not really a defense either.
  9. Violet Axolotl
    I'm heading to be right now, just wanted to make note of the D1 votes with alignments filled in: Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron In particular, if we think there are 4-5 elims left, where did they vote D1, if at all? Seems to me like one of Ostrich/Flamingo is rather likely to be elim on that basis alone. Possibly one of Chameleon/Albatross as well. Currently more suspicious of Albatross in the latter set, gonna have to look back on the other two. I also think Heron and Beagle are worth noting for being on side trains, which Hyena did as well.
  10. Violet Axolotl
    I'd highly suggest reading Night 3. It's not super long, but it explains most of the case against Hyena, and IMO the people making that case are pretty solidly village. Gorilla was caught up in the D1 randomness mostly, but also had a suspicious response to Meerkat's gambit on D3 (Meerkat wrote a Tineye message that a Seeker had scanned himself as Spiked in order to fish for reactions, then later confirmed that he himself had sent the message). We had already killed off Iguana and Croc, so Gorilla dying D3 (or sometime in the near future) was sort of inevitable. Pretty much guaranteed that there is no elim Coinshot, but there does appear to be a single Coinshot that certain folks have as solidly village (and I'd agree). I'd say 6 or 7, more likely, but it's hard to say.
  11. Violet Axolotl
    Except if Falcon is elim (which you assume), we don't really have a strong reason to believe the Lurcher claim (unless it is confirmed by the flip, of course).
  12. Violet Axolotl
    Nevermind, I found it. There's a place in notification settings where it was set to auto-follow everything I replied to.
  13. Violet Axolotl
    Is there a way to make the default not be to follow the thread after every post? I have to toggle the follow button every time I post something new right now.
  14. Violet Axolotl
    Given the seeker claim, yeah. Because e!Falcon necessarily implies e!Hyena in that case, while e!Hyena doesn’t require e!Falcon. Similarly, v!Hyena pretty much implies v!Falcon, while v!Falcon doesn’t really tell us anything about Hyena.
  15. Violet Axolotl
    To be honest, I don’t get great vibes from you in this PM, due to your preference of Falcon being elim over Hyena, which doesn’t make sense in the context of the claim we had from Hyena at the time.
  16. Violet Axolotl
    Excellent. Then we can vote you out twice.
  17. Violet Axolotl
    Well, wouldn’t he be self-voting?
  18. Violet Axolotl
    Current VC: Hyena (lots): Just about everyone A bunch of random words (1): Hyena And I don’t think I’ve voted yet, so: Hyena Definitely not going to entertain any ideas of postponing a suspected elim!Mistborn’s death.
  19. Violet Axolotl
    But your character doesn't even have a name... What with all the commotion surrounding the man who styled himself Charcoal Hyena, nobody stopped by Dyring's Inn that day. So Dyring took the opportunity to do all of the work that had slowly built up over the years. He replaced the shutters in the northern guest room, which didn't close properly. A section of the floor was stained with vomit from who knew how many years ago, so he tore up the boards and nailed some new ones down. He finished repainting the wall that was graffitied earlier, and straightened out the billboard that would hopefully prevent that from happening again. A crate full of glasses and mugs was opened up to replace some that rowdy customers had destroyed. There were a dozen other tasks, small things, such that likely no guests would ever tell the difference, but Dyring took the time for each, working with a silent dedication. Last of all, he swept off the porch. And that was it. The inn was clean, and quiet, and still. Dyring sat on the chair, Elly's chair, looking out at a town that was dirty, busy, and loud, and did nothing. Sometime later, Kellehrt stopped by and sat in the chair across from him. Neither man spoke to the other, and so the two passed the rest of the day into evening, doing nothing together.
  20. Violet Axolotl
    Your post seems to assume that everyone in this game can identify Falcon. And also seems to be a bit against the spirit of the game, because you might as well be using your player guess instead of Falcon, assuming that the games you list conclusively identify them. While I think arguments from alignment guesses are valid for convincing yourself, the AN loses something if we are using arguments about specific players from past games. That being said, I totally agree that Emerald is suspicious and should probably be our top vote candidate for tomorrow.
  21. Violet Axolotl
    Yeah, this is definitely true. I think it’s a combination of smaller games (so threat players don’t have as long to put things together) and a deliberate effort by elims/villagers to keep the thread alive when sometimes half the thread isn’t doing a lot of talking. I blame this trend entirely on Araris. I don’t actually think bussing has been that common (at least in the games I’ve played) except when he’s involved.
  22. Violet Axolotl
    Well, of course. It's Rae.
  23. Violet Axolotl
    I'm pretty sure you are actually Rae doing an impersonation.
  24. Violet Axolotl
    I don't think Smoker is necessary here, since Rioting someone from the other train onto yours looks like a Soothe.
  25. Violet Axolotl
    That's a good point. We don't actually know a whole lot about the elim team roles based on this. They have at least one out of: Mistborn/Thug/Seeker/Lurcher, depending on Falcon's alignment.
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