Violet Axolotl

I still hold that everyone should claim publicly. We don’t need roles to win at this point, given that Zebra is going to die in the night anyway. And knowing the whole distribution (or at worst missing 2 elim roles) should be a lot more help than any costs, particularly since we probably don’t have any Thugs or Seekers.

I'd say 2 remaining, and at most one of those slipped by us by doing something unexpected/accidental. But yeah, I'd wager at least one of the remaining elims is in Mouse/Dingo/Elephant/Dragonfly. Maybe both, given the lack of resistance to the non-Gorilla elim trains this game.

I suppose I should mention that as a Rioter, I will use my ability in self-defense. So if y'all actually want me dead, you should probably aim for a 2-vote margin between me and the next strongest train (or 3, if I'm not on said train). That is a good point. Both Hyena and Cham mentioned the possibility of an elim Coinshot (unprompted), and that seems like a particularly odd thing for a villager who is disconnected with the game to speculate about.

I can’t remember why I originally picked Cham. I do think I decided that I was more suspicious of Gorilla than Iguana, and specifically didn’t change the order (which I think I sent about 6 hours prior to my last post). I wasn’t online after I made that post, or at least not in the last couple hours of the cycle, so I missed all the last-minute votes.

Here's a read's list from Beagle: Looking at the yellow category, we have e!Cham, v!Heron, v?Albatross, and e?Dingo. It's nothing real big, but a teammate would probably want to give their pals a positive read while lumping them with some actual villagers. Hyena makes a comment a bit later: Seems odd that Hyena says e/e then ignores Mouse. Mouse is inactive at this point, idk. Beagle inconveniently lumps all the inactive players in one group. Not sure if that's because none of them are elim, of because of an expectation that we won't start looking through them for a while. Or because it's the totally normal thing to do which v!Heron does 2 posts later. And that's it. Sticking with my vote. I'm reading Elephant as slightly more village based on that last post. The combination of blatant bandwagoning and not knowing that Beagle is dead is pretty odd. It could be deliberate elim misdirection, but definitely looks like a villager that is totally out of the loop. Dyring stepped back from the window, satisfied that it was fixed. Glass wasn't cheap around here, and the current... state of Tyrian Falls didn't help much with that. Still, he was well off, and everyone expected Dyring's Inn to be neat. Couldn't have broken windows, especially not facing the street out front. As he turned to head downstairs, a crash sounded from the next room over. The very distinct crash that a window makes when a brick has been tossed through it. Entering that bedroom, seeing the broken glass, Dyring's rage boiled over. During the last day his anger had been warring with the depression caused by Kel's death, but now the anger won out (will note that any emotions expressed by Dyring here are purely RP and do not reflect the emotions any theoretical person that may be writing what he does). After sweeping up the remnants of the second window in two days, Dyring headed outside the inn, where a small crowd had gathered, most of whom were muttering angrily amongst themselves. He lifted the brick up and cleared his throat, drawing the attention of the crowd. "Why would the owner of an establishment like mine ever freely admit to being a Rioter? It would give lots of folks funny ideas about whether they'd been forced into buying my drinks, and certainly not give me any good will, what with the current state of things. And another thing. I've lived here longer than most of you. You know who I am, many of you have guessed at my past and what I'm capable of. You really think that if I was a Spiked, I wouldn't go about it a little more competently? I mean, what fool do you think I am that I'd draw attention to two of my fellow saboteurs and then fail to follow up? Surely the whole point in picking on some people that would eventually be confirmed as evil would be to cash in on the goodwill that earned. And yet, there I was, doing an about-face for no apparent reason." Dyring's face grew redder as he continued. "But the worst thing is, by calling me a Spiked, you call me complicit in Kel's death. I will not stand here an be accused of the murder of my oldest friend by a bunch of fools aren't a tenth of the man he was." (again, this is RP and should not be taken as an attack on anyone) He ended by angrily tossing the brick at the feet of the crowd, and as he did, the frustration fled, leaving him empty and exhausted. "The inn is closed if you don't already have a room. I'll be waiting on the porch if you need me." And with that, Dyring walked over and sat in his chair, closing his eyes and trying to block out the noise of the crowd, Outside of the RP, my about-face on Pearl had a couple of causes. One was that with Gorilla's flip, I felt that the elims wouldn't have stacked multiple votes against him. The other was that my reasoning for my suspicion D2 was honestly really weak. If you consider a village me that thinks Gorilla and Iguana are village, then I don't really have anything great to go on, so running with this for a while makes sense. But several cycles down the road when Cham actually gets voted out, we have a lot of other things to work with than a random hypothesis about a theoretical elim strategy D1. A couple of other miscellaneous things worth noting: I was with family and/or traveling during the first few cycles of the game, which means I didn't start doing rereads until recently. There was a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff in my PM with Meerkat, since I was bouncing ideas off of him rather than posting things in the thread for a bit, especially when we had 3 practically uncontested votes in a row, there wasn't really much to say. I kinda wish I'd pushed harder to defend Hyena. I'd ID'd him pretty early, knew that he hadn't played in quite a while and also that it would be pretty crummy for village!him to get voted out, at least partly, for a rep that was quite ancient and kinda irrelevant. The thread was pretty nasty that cycle for a while, and I was trying to argue his case with Meerkat in our PM as well (although more along the lines the people should hear him out, not really that he was village). I wish someone who was actively participating would have stepped in like Fifth did earlier, but it can be hard to think about that sort of thing in the middle of the game. I think that given the lack of opposition pretty much all the trains on elims we've had this game (barring Gorilla, and we've flipped or soft-confirmed most players that voted then), it makes a whole lot of sense to look at the inactives. Based on what content those players have provided, I think Dingo is the best bet for this turn.

Doesn't everyone know that Meerkat and I were trying (for at least part of D6) to bait people into a non-Beagle train? That's part of why I used my ability rather than just switching my vote onto Beagle. I'm in the middle of rereading the Meerkat Gambit right now, haven't seen anything yet that changes my mind about my vote.

I appreciate it. If nobody was suspicious of me, I'd probably get NKed sometime. I will say that pretty much all of my activity D6 was in my PM with Meerkat, and my vote was effectively on Beagle (or at least not on Heron) for much of the day. I agree with Penguin's take on Mouse, and would also like to note the comment about a PM being started at a specific time. E!Mouse wouldn't likely be in a PM with Cham, so would have to make that up, while v!Mouse would just say it naturally. Makes me lean a bit more village on Mouse. I'm going to join Penguin on Dingo, retracting from Elephant, but I'll note that this is contingent on rereads. In particular, I'm going to look at what our current elim flips have said about Mouse/Dingo/Elephant (and Dragonfly maybe?).

To answer a couple questions, I have only used my ability twice, and I didn’t get any PM from Dingo. I sent them a PM, but didn’t get any response (which I think they said they would do).

For the sake of being slightly contrary, I'll vote on Elephant, who has also been minimally active.

I think that was because at the time I thought the elims had spread their votes D1, so Cham and Gorilla voting together didn't fit with that. I might have also been trying to un-tunnel. But honestly can't remember my train of thought. I would say that I've just been lucky, and furthermore, I've landed in just the right spot with enough suspicion that the elims don't want to kill me, but the village also has never really pushed to vote me out.

Yeah, I could be a Soother I suppose. I’m not sure why elim!me would claim Rioter when I’m actually a Soother though, since Rioters are stronger in most cases. I’m going to ignore Scorp’s D1 vote and see what the rest of his interactions come up as, whenever I have time for it.

Since Beagle’s role is confirmed, the only way I can not be a Rioter is if there is an unclaimed Soother floating around. Or I suppose I could be a Mistborn that drew either Zinc or Brass D1. My understanding is that Zebra is the Lurcher, and Penguin is a Thug. There is an unknown Mistborn that pulled Tin D1. And I’ve been ninja’d by Dragonfly. I would like to point out that if the elims have a Coinshot, a Mistborn, and no other abilities, then a village with 2 Mistborn, 2 Lurchers, and 3 Thugs seems a bit overpowered. Not to mention the vote manip we have. The easiest assumption I think is that there are 2-3 elims remaining and 2 of them have roles. Or 3 elims with one vanilla. It’s possible the elims have vote manip but decided not to use it D1, but that seems weird. If we do find an elim vote manip role, I’d want to look at Scorp again post-D1. A smoker is another possible elim role, that fed into the votes during the day I think. Elims don’t really need a Lurcher, but GMs could be trolling. Thug is different, but both Thug claims (this doesn’t account for Penguin) were attacked by Beagle, where probably the elims would use the NK to hit someone they want to clear. Elims could have a Seeker, there’s no way we could check on that. It seems odd though since they have hit Thugs twice with attacks and haven’t really hit any village power roles with the NK, barring Swan. The missing Tineye could also be elim, but that again seems odd, since elims often want to shut down PMs, and would have to make a hard choice. Of course, with no village Seeker, shutting down PMs isn’t as important. It’s pretty certain that there are no remaining Coinshots. So the roles I’d say are most likely to be elim would be: Smoker, Thug (but none of the ones we know of), Tineye, Rioter/Soother, Seeker, and Lurcher, in descending order.

Yeah, the big thing was that Heron was stuck in my mind the way Cham was, so I was hoping that intuition would be right again. I wasn’t a huge fan of Heron’s reaction to Kat’s fake Seeker scan. I’ll also note that I was communicating with Meerkat for that entire cycle via PM, and we were trying to see if we could bait people to oppose the Beagle train once that got going. About 15 hours into the cycle or so I sent in the order to riot Heron’s vote, so my vote on Heron at that point was just for show.

Yeah, I was assuming that more elims voted D1 than we have found already (I need to look back and see if this is still a possibility) and I found the Smoker role odd for a villager given that the elims so far haven't had abilities we can block with this. I had some other things, but didn't actually mention them.

So right now it could be 10-2, down to 9-2 for next day. That means, if everything goes as poorly as possible, then LyLo would occur on Day 11 with 3 villagers versus 2 elims. I think it would probably be best for everyone to just roleclaim once we hit daytime. At this point, we just want all the information out in the open so we can solve things.

Which of the D1 Tineye messages are accounted for? I guess the first is Swan, second is Kat, and the last is Octo (from “Captain Oc”)? The third could be Hyena, if the elims have a Seeker or second Mistborn. That might be worth thinking about more if Heron flips village Smoker.

Zebra seems to be a Lurcher, which, given the presence of an elim Coinshot, seems to be a role that makes more sense for the village to have, especially since it’s a bit unlikely that the village would ever get more than a single kill this game. It could be a GM troll thing, but I’m currently leaning against that.

Dyring was sweeping up broken glass when someone outside called up to him the news about Kellehrt. At first, he couldn't believe it. Kel had been a rock in Tyrian Falls, when so many others had been like ash in the wind. Up early each day at the farm, always the last to leave the field, and never too busy to chill on the porch enjoying the night air. The turmoil the Spiked had caused, if anything, had reinforced Kel as a pillar of the community. His thoughts and analysis had been crucial to the discovery of practically all the Spiked that had been uncovered so far, and his billboard had kept the worst of the nightly graffiti off of Dyring's Inn. Dyring's thoughts turned to their last evening together, out on the inn's porch, and that's when it really hit him that Kel was gone. The dustpan tumbled from his hands, spilling glass back across the floorboards, as Dyring stared out the window at the empty chair. The chair that Elly used to sit in, that Kel had taken up in his effort to ease Dyring's grief, that now represented an emptiness in Dyring which would never fully heal. His cleaning forgotten, Dyring leaned against the wall and held a hand to his forehead. Tyrian Falls was coming apart around them, and Dyring was coming apart in the middle. Even if the townsfolk saved those remaining from the Spiked, Dyring wasn't sure that it would be saved for him. At some point the pain and loss were too great to redeem with the death of the Spiked, and whether Dyring had crossed that line with Kel's death, or with his own participation in the daily mobbing of suspects, he was adrift now. Somewhere in the last week, Tyrian Falls had stopped being home, and had become a bloodstained battlefield, too poisoned for normal life. The Spiked had to die. They would pay tenfold for the death of Kellehrt, a hundredfold for the measures they had forced the townsfolk into. And then... Dyring didn't know, except that nothing short of a miracle would keep him from leaving.

Not necessarily, since an elim Tineye can be a hindrance if the elims want to close down PMs.

Heron. RP to come later.

My team is something like Hyena/Gorilla/Chameleon/Beagle/Heron/maybe Scorpion? Probably just one of the inactives though; Elephant, Dingo, or Mouse. We had basically no resistance to the Cham train, and the Beagle one ended up going through pretty easily as well. This suggests no elim vote manip and some elims that aren’t confident in their ability to sway the thread. If the elims actually have no (active) vote manip, then Scorpion is more likely to be village, since that D1 vote becomes quite a bit more risky. If I hadn’t Rioted (or Cham hadn’t been Soothed) we could have flipped Gorilla D1 with Scorp’s vote.

Yeah I Rioted Heron's vote onto Beagle, which means that Heron is a Smoker or was smoked by one. Edit: Dyring stared, aghast, at the broken windows facing the approach to his home and business.

A stillness hung in the common room of Dyring's Inn, contrasting the tumult blanketing Tyrian Falls. Dyring himself sat behind the bar, distractedly rubbing at a stain in the counter. The emptiness was his fault, of course. Everyone was either out hunting for evidence of Spiked, or not allowed in because of their unwillingness to do so. Even Vincero was out helping Loenthal with whatever that fellow was up to. Dyring wondered if his inn would ever be the same, even if he lived to see this mess through. Wondered if he could live in a town where he'd helped kill off a third of the inhabitants, and threatened violence against many of the others. He doubted any other survivors would fault him for his actions, but Dyring knew that he was his own worst enemy in that regard. Elly's death, and that of Dyring's own brother, both haunted him well past what should have been normal. Beyond those, Kellerht's near-death the previous night made it seem likely there would be others close to him that died as they hunted the Spiked. The stillness grew oppressive, but still Dyring didn't get up. He didn't have anything new worth saying, and for now, it was just easier to be swallowed up in his own emotions.

Yeah, there should probably be some caveats to that statement. For instance, there appears to be no village Seeker, so two Lurchers actually finding and trusting each other like that isn’t super likely (as seen with Falcon’s death). And yeah, several elim Mistborn would also work as a counterbalance. Unfortunately, we don’t have evidence of that yet. And even having the potential of a mechanically unwinnable game for the elims seems... worrying. I’m still not really interested in a role vote right now, but maybe people should reveal once we clear out all the quiet folks, which is likely in 2-3 cycles. I do feel like, depending on who’s left on the elim team, they might go for some pretty risky plays here. But that might just be my inner elim talking. Giving up a kill hurts, but a soft-clear can be pretty powerful at this stage when we’ve started poking in the corners for the remaining elims.

I guess I want to go after Heron. We’ve still only found 3 elims that voted D1, and two of those were directly opposing Gorilla. Either the elims are so inactive that we’ve basically already won the game, or there were more of them that voted D1. Or their team is really small and the Coinshot is elim. But a small elim team seems a little odd given the two vanillas we’ve already found, even with remaining players having strong roles. It’s also worth noting that the alignment of the Coinshot now seems like it should be related to those of Rhino and Alb, since whichever team doesn’t have a bonus kill presumably would have extra protection to compensate. And I doubt 2 village Lurchers exist in the game, because if the elims had a Coinshot that they lost before killing either Lurcher, the Lurchers could trade protection and be invincible. So that means either an elim Lurcher, and probably either Rhino/Alb is elim, or a couple of Thugs, probably one of which is v/e with the Coinshot. Of course, Hyena could have been responsible for Alb surviving as well. And Rhino is so inactive that an elim Coinshot might have attacked him as a sort of bus, although that is weird unless there are no other inactive elims.