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Amber Vulture

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  1. Amber Vulture
    What good is a WGG if people know its a WGG? I'll add that giving too much information unprompted is a Thing evil!Mat did in that LG they were a theif in. They made an offhand comment about what they did with their night action to preemptively cover if anyone asked what they did, which was either stealing or submitting the kill, I can't remember. Seems like they gave TMI this time around, mentioning getting a gem to have one prepared. It'd be cool if they submitted the kill on themselves then had a teammate pass them the gem for cover. In more reliable analysis news, I'd still like to know if anyone made a PM last night. To those that didn't, why not? It would have cleared you of having submitted the NK
  2. Amber Vulture
    Oo interesting. Currently it's 9v:5e. If they'd killed a villager last night it'd be 8v;5e. That's not guaranteed, but there were viable targets if they were paying attention. With a hammer, it's 7v;5e then 6v;5e with the kill. You'd need another hammer, but it's doable for the win with the village being more prone to inactivity. Alternatively, kill a villager, fail to exe Rhino, then NK another villager brings you to 7v;5e. Assuming Rhino is then killed, it becomes 7v;4e. NK brings it to 6v;4e. But then if the elims are connected, they might fall like dominos. It's an interesting objection. Hm. It is a common elim strategy to avoid any elim flips to avoid giving the village any leads. Could be a case of that. I'd be more suspicious of a current player falling back on that discussion, but since you're new, I guess you didn't get to say that the first time around.
  3. Amber Vulture
    Just for the record, if you end up being a villager who took the time to read the rules properly and come up with that strat without prior knowledge of your NK, I'm legitimately impressed. Which is why I didn't sus it too much. Gotcha. No kill =no body hop
  4. Amber Vulture
    Huh. Smart move. I didn't realize you could do that. Alternatively, that reads as an elim who knew their Warform was about to be WGGed. Either or. Rhino voting for Penguin but reminding people that they planned to move the vote later seems suspicious to me. Distancing from results of a known village flip/preparing to move the vote strategically if a teammate got suspected kinda deal. I also feel like they ran out of people they could reasonably sus that weren't their teammates. Why'd they go for Flamingo over say Heron, Beagle, or Scorpion. Although to be honest it could totally just be them being more engaged in thread and sensing something I missed. Eh. Might as well swing for the fences. Plum Rhino * I took a Scholarform Gem. I'd like to find my Scholarform Friend (the other scholar), because I can confirm their identity and vice versa. Although without knowing the odds, it might not be as village indicative as I first thought. By the way, I made a PM last night. Who else made a PM? Edit: oh dear it's bold still. It was a weird kill. Aren't we supposed to check for body snatchers after those
  5. Amber Vulture
    Join the club. The best part about people going for other people for a while is it convinces you you're right about your sus and then. It flops and you have to start over. Who wants to see my Reads List (Evil!Rhino Variant)? This is the extent of my notes right now. I have no supplementary evidence off hand. But it feels right so yee-haw I'm gonna say 'em! Current elim team guess is Rhino, Heron, Falcon, Scorpion, +1 (maybe) Dragonfly is village because attacked Lion is village because he seems cool Tuatara is village because votey things Flamingo - Rhino not e-e because Rhino pressed them to explain their Penguin vote Scorpion is evil because need a D1 evil vote on Swan. Heron is evil because sussed me for sussing Rhino. Dingo seems cool because Rhino voted him D1 and also they just yeeted for a while. Falcon voted on me and I think the elim doc floated me as a mix target because Heron was in there too so yeah * Hyena - Probably fine?? Talked to Rhino conversationally? Mouse - *confused noises leaning village* Beagle - *eeeeeeeeeee vil?* (heh, that's both alignments at once) Weasel - sure, could be evil. I remember zilch about them
  6. Amber Vulture
    Additional note: if you're Scholarform and have already burned your PM for the round, feel free to contact me through people, or in a PM later. But it'd be a lot cooler if you made a PM because then you can't submit the elim kill >:). Also, I've come to realize that my lack of roleplaying will make my eventual death writeup hard to write. So to give Steel some ideas, here's a thing: Winn loved to hum as the birds did. The others hated his high pitched noises. And frankly, so did the birds. He wasn't very good at whistling yet. But he kept trying. Yeah, that's all the RP I've got in me right now. Also he's in the cave with everyone else. Whistling innocently and avoiding conversation because dialogue is hard
  7. Amber Vulture
    they're acting sus in the elim doc, huh :P. I've already mentioned the PM I got N1. I got a Scholarform Gem D1. Where's my scholar buddy at, send me a PM and add someone trustworthy in it as a witness and maybe we can chat and confirm our identities to each other?
  8. Amber Vulture
    Do we think everyone's gotten and attuned to their gems by now? Because if so, we could have a PM party tonight and make it difficult to submit the night kill. Just putting it out there. The Mateform thing is intriguing. You two can't vote for each other, right? So Falcon gets a pass if Penguin flips elim. Their story is so oddly specific that I believe it. But I'm not sure 'probably didn't submit the kill' is enough to clear someone Edit: Dragonfly, vote count aside, who are you down to kill between Heron and Penguin? Mine is movable Double edit: nevermind it wouldn't work since you're the 2nd on Heron. We'd need a third Heron, Penguin
  9. Amber Vulture
    I disagree with your method of play, but I'm choosing not to think too hard about playstyles anymore. I don't suspect Rhino. See this comment: For what it's worth though, Plum Rhino seems cool. They've regularly said things I was thinking, so they're at least in the same zone as me. I've been deciding not to overcomplicate things and just take the gut trust there. I'm not sure what you're getting at there. And using my trusts to narrow down evil suspects is part of the game. You have to trust AND suspect go get anywhere fast. So I'm not sure that's a valid criticism either. As for the Weasel thing, we appear to be at odds over whether Tuatara is evil or not. I think the votes against them weren't there, but I can see how you'd suspect them.
  10. Amber Vulture
    Technically it's a tie there so you're out of danger :P. There's a lot not to like here that could be evil, could be business. (Strategically) withholding vote, not doing analysis, protecting e!Penguin, not trusting anyone (good guys need to build trusts more than baddies do). My initial red flag was +1ing the Rhino suspicion, but looking at the wording, that's an odd way of doing it. So, I'm leaning busy on this post, not evil. For what it's worth though, Plum Rhino seems cool. They've regularly said things I was thinking, so they're at least in the same zone as me. I've been deciding not to overcomplicate things and just take the gut trust there. So my list is I trust Rhino, Lion, Dragonfly (agree with everyone, a WGG is unnecessary), Tuatara, I'm less interested in voting for Mouse (cremshoot and I think they were trying to waste the evil supply), Falcon (again, I don't think I've actually seen any analysis of theirs I disagree with, and I can see how a good guy would come to pick Rhino), Mate, I'm a Vulture, not Wolverine Whose rule was it that if you try to kill someone enough times and it doesn't stick, they're probably evil? I'll go on record as being down for a Penguin kill at any time, but... now I'm wary enough of it possibly being just a playstyle thing that I've decided to back off. * I agree with Rhino that I suspect at least one evil person voted the last two days. Assuming someone went for Stormform, one definitely did last Day. So removing my trusts, that makes a pool of: Flamingo, Scorpion, Heron, Beagle. Is Beagle too easy a pick there? Both Flamingo and Heron seem to have points against them. And look at that, both voted villagers on D1. So I'll shamelessly sheep Dragonfly's observations on this one and vote Mint Heron
  11. Amber Vulture
    @Oxblood Beagle I understand wanting to soft Warform, but was there really no one you could muster enough suspicion of to vote for? Your vote is uninformative and potentially wasteful if it led to you being killed. All it would have taken was two or three opportunistic baddies. @Plum Rhinoceros I too have an irrational suspicion of Heron, but I've decided not to follow it because technically, I can't find anything wrong with their posts besides them suspecting good guy!Opal Lion. Only nine votes, so we're trending in the wrong direction. I think fixating on ties is a bad idea. It's an essay excuse for baddies to move votes to set up their preferred kill. It should be something the people on with like two hours to go should worry about, not people halfway through the round. Better for everyone to name their preferred kill, then we can look at consolidation. The bad guys probably want mis-kills when they're easy, and ties when one of their own is in danger (or they feel like trolling). But that's just my personal take. Penguin just doesn't seem to die, huh. No offense, but your level of indecisiveness comes off as a baddie trying to withhold their vote for strategic reasons. I could draw conclusions about your not self presing, but I'd prefer not to give village credit for that when what I really want is to know if we're on the same wavelength.
  12. Amber Vulture
    *finger guns* Back at you. No seriously, I fully apologize to Opal Lion and intend to drop the conversation which upset them. I need to take a step back and reevaluate my thinking, so this is the last comment I will make this round. Sorry to everybody else too; no one logs on to watch two people squabbling. Okay now you can resume your regularly scheduled murdering.
  13. Amber Vulture
    Self voting is illogical. So you're either evil or you're genuinely annoyed. And after that post, I don't have the heart to push the former option because the risk of the latter is too great to be worth winning a game over. Congrats, you've convinced me you are who you say you are. I apologize for misinterpreting your statements. If you're evil, double congrats, you'll probably win the game now. I'll slap a vote on Lion Penguin, then I'm out of here.
  14. Amber Vulture
    I too would like to hear more from Azure Mouse, but see no point in dwelling on them until we hear more from them. @Azure Mouse why are you like this? 1. I think it was an important part of my explanation. 2. Not being able to develop reasonable reads is an evil tell. Trusting too many people makes it awkward when you eventually need to kill them. 3. I have six people on my radar. Surely not all of them are evil, so killing me. Actually I'm not going to explain why killing me is a good idea. 4. Some bad guys get defensive about everything when they are evil. I think this is a case of that. Precisely! Which is why I found it odd that they were so committed to claiming Kas, instead of being ambivalent. I then went and found other stuff I saw as evil, which is what I am more interested in discussing. Araris is working overtime today. We should double his pay
  15. Amber Vulture
    Happy Hot Take Thursday! I think Opal Lion is evil. (Penguin) -Last turn, they created a PM with me, them, Plum Rhino, and Ross. That means they were one of only a few people who failed to get a gem, which in this game, is statistically more likely to happen to the bad guys. -They claimed to have RNGed the PM group. When I called them on it, they specified that they did a modified RNG, allegedly by looking at the first three options presented to them, then rejecting any they had a bad gut reaction to. If they did that, I find it convenient that it resulted in the three highest posters being brought together. Even if it was random, I don’t understand why they would do it; they could have just selected three people they trusted to talk to. Pre-emptive explanations can be a baddie tell. -This is more tinfoily, but I guessed one of Rhino, Lion, or I would die to the night kill and we all survived. It could be because Lion thinks they can pocket us, or needed active people around for cover. (Or Rhino and Lion are teammates. I might pursue that off a Lion flip. Anyway.) -Lion appears to have tried to soft several different identities (Illwei’s emojis, TJ’s Scottish voice, Kas’ reaction photo), but has been defensive in the PM about being Kas. I’ve made it known that I think Mint Heron is the real Kas, as their writing style matches their writing in the last anonymous game. In reply, Lion has produced paragraphs of rebuttal filled with references Kas would make. It’s possible Kas would prefer I stop calling him a liar and decided to name drop his degree etc., but it feels more like someone who did their research and has been packing Kasisms into their speech. One public example of this is, “your expectation that my vote should have disappeared because Swan made a Monty Python joke like Wyrm did with me in MR1 is curious,” which feels forced and gleaned from research, not nostalgia. If they really were Kas, they were trying to sow this confusion earlier in the game and therefore wouldn’t care so much as to provide sentences full of Kas-like-speech to try to convince me. It’s a weird hill to die on. I know these are weak reasons to kill someone, so I’ve taken a look through their posts to look for supporting evidence: Interesting that they use the term ‘lynch’. The first point is dead on. But mentioning the tie creation as noteworthy, then saying it’s too early to be important seems off. And the vote on Swan helps what ultimately became the successful mis-kill. The first part shows they’re well versed in the evil roles, although the good guys should be trying to achieve that. The second part shuts down conversation, which is an odd move for Day One. This comment gives me pause. But I think there's enough Too Kasy To Be Kas stuff elsewhere to outweigh it. Not committing to your votes is a baddie move. Misinterpret the accusation as a difference in playstyles. Flip the tables to attack the accuser. Play it all off as inconsequential anyway. Smooth. Doesn’t Kas usually right justify his RP when he does it like that? Probably not important. Going full confirmation bias here, I’m pretty sure Tuatara is innocent, so staying on them could be an evil move. In conclusion, Opal Lion has been acting strangely. Mind games are part of the fun, so I'd rather not force them to prove their identity. I think it's an intentional distraction anyway; they'd rather discuss whether or not they're Kas than whether or not they're evil. I'd prefer to focus on whether or not you guys think there is enough here to justify killing them. I do. **** Edit: @Amethyst Scorpion if poke votes aren't meant to start trains, why not just tag them in a post to encourage participation? It is functionally the same and less misleading to the rest of us.
  16. Amber Vulture
    I loved that song on the Sound of Music hip hop remix. It was less helpful for learning musical notes though Either some of the most active players are evil, or most are too correct in their suspicions to be viable kills. Here's hoping its the latter. Penguin
  17. Amber Vulture
    Nimbleform: no change Workform: no change Mateform: - 4 Warform: - 3 Artform: - 1 Scholarform: - 2 Mediationform: no change So if 13 good guys attempted to take a gem, only three failed. Maybe four or five if some baddies also grabbed gems.
  18. Amber Vulture
    More than what? Not an extra life or the ability to make Evil Gems. And it helps about the same as passive vote removal and an extra action for submitting the kill. Good guys should grab the gem because their good faith votes need to out weigh the baddies' intentionally misleading ones for our kill to be of any use. Here is a rundown of the threads I plan to follow next round. ~Amethyst Scorpion used RNG in an illogical manner and over reacted to my trolling them. ~Charmander Penguin took unconfident stances last round. It seems like a bad guy trying not to be connected to any bad outcomes while keeping their options by supporting both sides ~I can see the merits of a Cream Tuatara kill and am open to having that discussion. ~As previously mentioned, I noted Emerald Falcon's vote as the most suspicious of yesterday. I think technically, their response to my accusations is what a good guy should have said (denial, put effort into some analysis, present an alternative to be compared to) but I did not think Opal Lion was the most suspicious person last Day based on their vote. I am confused why they picked them out of the lineup. ~It strikes me that Opal Lion's aggressive softing of Kas is a good way to post without contributing objectionable analysis. ~Mint Heron, whose identity is a complete and total mystery. Made a possibly odd comment about posting one OOC post per round. It could be a baddie feeling guilty for not engaging in a suspectable way.
  19. Amber Vulture
    If a baddie succeeded in getting a valuable gem, they would be the first to fake claim not having succeeded and we would have little way of challenging their statement. This is more likely to provide information the bad guys want than to provide useful information to us. But let's assume most of the good guys tried to claim a gem (10/14). And all of the bad guys either tried to claim one too (2/5), or got one from their own supply (3/5). Together, there was 5 scholar and warform gems. Let's assume half the good guys and all of the relevant bad guys went for those (7/19). Five were successful, while the remaining two, the evil greedies, were snubbed. We would then see no scholar or warform gems remaining, and five other gems have been taken. We can then expect to see five other gems have been taken. Maybe seven if you want to increase the assumption of how many good guys requested gems to 12/14. Any more than that probably indicates that a baddie got a valuable gem. Any less indicates more people requested the top tier gems than I have guessed here, which decreases the odds of a baddie getting one. This only works if we assume no replacement gems are added to the stockpile. But in short, if over seven second tier gems have been taken, we should be worried. If less have, we probably got all of them into trustworthy hands.
  20. Amber Vulture
    Alright, no vote manipulation took place, as expected. 13/19 players voted, which is above average. Well done. I forgot that ties result in no kill, so thank you to whoever pointed that out, I am glad that did not happen. If you get a vote changing gem, it is your responsibility to make sure that you do not cause a tie and waste our kill. Steel, does having your vote forcefully removed count against you if you need to vote to keep your bond? Emerald Falcon, how do you feel about your vote on Cream Tuatara now? You chose to make a targeted attack on them after their suspect analysis post, then were silent the rest of the turn. I would like to hear more from you, because I find the hit-and-run suspicious. Personally, I found most of what Tuatara said suspicious. But I did not see a strong enough opposition to their wagon for me to believe the bad guys wanted them to survive. It is possible that they were planning on more blatantly adding votes late in the cycle, but my gut says no.
  21. Amber Vulture
    Also noted, but it was viable enough that I think players sensed a lack of opposition to it and bailed. There's an irony to forgetting elephants Bold of you to assume I'm not just trying to get my riddle fix through crowdsourcing.
  22. Amber Vulture
    I suggest that we all pose difficult questions that have satisfying answers which are hard to guess, so that if anyone suspects our bodies have been snatched, we can reveal our solutions as proof we have not been corrupted. Mine will be what can be added to what to make theater?
  23. Amber Vulture
    Village-aligned players do sometimes use RNG and get spooked if they sense the baddies are piling on their wagon. So I will not vote for Scorpion this round. Instead, I'll just point out that their playstyle so far has arbitrarily limited their scope while avoiding taking responsibility for their votes. Allegedly at random, they selected a player to vote on, but made a concerted effort to explain that it was RNGed, and the circumstances under which they'd change their vote. If they didn't like the response to the poke, they said they would stay on Weasel, which is a convinient excuse for a bad vote. If they were playing entirely logically, which again I recognize some people don't, they would have kept their vote on until Weasel showed up and welcomed Swan and I's assistance adding pressure, to really get some payoff from their prodding. By backing off early, they seem to be distancing themselves from the wagon they started, as if they know its a bad kill. Then their suspicion of us two for messing with their bluff reveals that they have not been closely following the rest of the game, which is a possible baddie profile, or are limiting themselves to looking at the interactions related to this specific thread of interactions, possibly to justify voting for good guys when there is compelling reasons to vote for baddies that they would like to ignore. I didn't consider this mechanic when guessing the bad guy team size. I'm still leaning towards an evil team of five, because the good guys should get extra lives and the baddies should never acquire scholarform which might allow for alignment conversions, but I'd believe four on the side is possible. I saw your analysis of their analysis, and how you concluded you saw no red flags, but I think Tuatara should at best be a neutral read to any good guy right now. I'd like to know who Penguin plans to vote for. And others. The more votes, the merrier. Weasel Also, I object to my being only the backup suspect for this. I clearly started it, don't let Swan hog all the credit
  24. Amber Vulture
    We both know that's unverifiable. Well played! I also can't check whether strong reactions to votes is normal coming from you.
  25. Amber Vulture
    I think the bad guys are more likely to be watching the vote count than the good guys right now. I'd prefer people vote based on their individual feelings than attempts at consolidation. Wagons are small and votes are fluid right now.
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