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Amber Vulture

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Everything posted by Amber Vulture

  1. Amber Vulture
    Weaving together is a saidar ability, but other than that I may have misunderstood the mechanics of how weaving together works. I'll see if I can get more information for you. I had Swan, Falcon, Albatross, Penguin as of last cycle. I thought there was a good chance Swan would die to the lynch, Penguin claimed a PM with Ostrich last cycle that would have been a dangerous lie, and I thought Falcon claiming the kill on Crocodile and its effects made them somewhat less likely to be evil. I might have to reevaluate my list since Scorpion, Falcon, and Dingo are the only one still there who could have killed both Weasel and Ostrich.
  2. Amber Vulture
    Albatross was killed by Tuatara and I weaving together.
  3. Amber Vulture
    Hearing nothing and not being able to find any evidence either way, I suppose I'll vote for Swan as well.
  4. Amber Vulture
    Remembering that Scorpion did claim a specific Forsaken, I'll remove that name from my temporary shortlist. Swan didn't post at all cycle 2, did anyone see evidence that they were around to kill Weasel? If so Swan is a viable lynch target, but otherwise I'd prefer someone else.
  5. Amber Vulture
    I typed Mouse when I meant that you would not have been able to kill Weasel last cycle. I'm currently discounting Mouse for having claimed female Forsaken, though that claim has yet to be proven by targeting another saidar user to my knowledge.
  6. Amber Vulture
    Tuatara claimed Lanfear, which would be a difficult role for Lews to fake, or rather an easy role to prove by targeting another saidar user with a non-fatal weave. I've heard about five separate saidar claims, equal to the number of Forsaken that should be able to use this power but perhaps not equal to the total number of saidar users if Moraine is in the game. Whether or not any saidar users could be evil, it's not necessary to kill any of them for those whose goal is to kill Lews. Scorpion backs up Hyena's PM claim and Mouse backs up Dragonfly's claim that a non-majority lynch roleblocks the target, so neither Hyena nor Mouse should have been able to kill Weasel. Falcon claimed to be roleblocked for cycle 2, but the only one who can confirm that is Crocodile. While Weasel made a good point about Lews having more information than the rest of us, it's more likely that he knew there was a Forsaken majority out to kill him than which Forsaken specifically were in the game, which I would say makes Dingo less likely to be Lews. That leaves Scorpion, Swan, Falcon(lesser), Albatross, and Penguin(one of which I've heard is a saidar user but has not been revealed in thread) as likely Dragons, although if someone like Moraine does exist it opens up the possibility for her to have killed Weasel and thus being roleblocked would not prevent someone from being the Dragon.
  7. Amber Vulture
    So you're not necessarily a Forsaken, but you aren't opposed to killing the Dragon? I don't really see the point of a two pronged tied lynch unless the goal is to waste actions. Mouse's survival seems to indicate that a non-majority lynch isn't fatal, so getting two people tied will either roleblock both of them or kill one of them based on secret vote manipulations, though it's unlikely that anyone other than the two people up for the lynch would do this unless there was a strong conviction of shared alignment.
  8. Amber Vulture
    So the game takes place during the Lord of Chaos book, and we're actually hunting for Rand, using the name Lews just to be confusing? I suppose that makes sense given that Pedron Niall is a modern character.
  9. Amber Vulture
    Not reincarnated, just not using my original name, which I now realize is true for all Forsaken. I believe I would have been using my current name during this time period. Why wouldn't the other Forsaken be around?
  10. Amber Vulture
    I don't really want to die either. I doubt Falcon put in a double vote, but it's entirely possible that Mouse did. Mouse(4): Swan, Weasel, Dragonfly, Vulture Vulture(2): Falcon, Mouse Swan(1): Tuatara Dragonfly(1): Scorpion
  11. Amber Vulture
    It indicated that Swan wan't part of an obviously majority village faction with the goal of killing Forsaken. Right, I forgot about that ability. It does. Noted, so a Forsaken!Dragonfly would have known he was in the game.
  12. Amber Vulture
    So we did get confirmed that 1. Killing Lews doesn't have to be personal and 2. Not every Forsaken has the same win condition. Looking at the lynch, we have two votes for Mouse-voting for Dragonfly/not saying game related things, one vote for Swan-inactive, one vote for Dingo-claiming Forsaken, one vote for Dragonfly-being anti-Forsaken, and one vote for me-not entirely sure, maybe saying there were likely unique roles. Weasel at least has vote manipulation powers, which may or may not be universal. I don't really see how Forsaken!Dragonfly could see Weasel claim Forsaken, Swan choose to vote for someone other than Weasel, then Digno claim Forsaken and come to the conclusion that the best course of action was to pretend to be anti-Forsaken. Three other players openly Forsaken/Forsaken compatible in a 14 person game should have been an indication that there wasn't a majority faction intent on lynching Forsaken. @Indigo Weasel, did you start out knowing that Lews was in the game? If you didn't, that would be a possible reason for Dragonfly's vote if you shared the same win condition.
  13. Amber Vulture
    There are five claimed Forsaken so far, enough to present a very strong case for us being the main faction. All of the Forsaken presumably have relatively similar abilities; there doesn't seem to be any reason an enemy faction would target any Forsaken in particular, especially without claiming names. I wouldn't want to go the 'everyone claim a name and lynch the duplicates' route even if that was effective though, as that's not fun for anyone. Hmm. That does seem possible. Everyone choosing the same target every cycle could circumvent that limitation, with victory being determined randomly if we do identify the Dragon, since protections only have a partial success as well. If that happens, we should try the lynch first just to see if it works.
  14. Amber Vulture
    PMs don't open until the start of the next cycle, unfortunately.
  15. Amber Vulture
    Dragonfly and Ostrich don't seem to be on board the all Forsaken theory, which is unfortunate. Unlike Dragonfly, Ostrich doesn't appear to be necessarily anti-Forsaken.
  16. Amber Vulture
    Your and Dingo's claim is making me feel better about claiming, but I do think it would be funny if the entire Forsaken contingent revealed themselves and were promptly slaughtered by the village. I'm also using my modern name, so it's probably fine. Not everyone can use saidar, but five of the Forsaken can, which is five people who can't be Lews. It is true that male characters wouldn't be able to use saidar either, including the other eight Forsaken. Lews would be able to use saidan.
  17. Amber Vulture
    The initial writeup for this game suggested that only most of us will be channelers, and a game with 13 Forsaken and one Dragon is all channelers. Other than that, a village!Forsaken and SK!Lews makes sense. I don't see why there would be multiple Forsaken with no contact if we weren't at least a neutral, if not village, faction. Dragonfly seems to disagree though. @ Someone with a good memory, Aran'gar wasn't known as such while Lews was still alive, correct? If Lews was the SK, it should be possible to narrow down his identity as he wouldn't be able to use saidar while five Forsaken could.
  18. Amber Vulture
    Theoretically if player A killed player B, but then A gets balefired and never existed, B wouldn't have died and thus comes back to life. That sounds like a nightmare to manage so there has to be some kind of limitation on that kind of scenario, hopefully beyond the three player-three use restriction. There would probably be a time limit, as balefire only erases a victim's actions up to a certain point. Balefiring people who've used their three allotted balefires in an attempt to walk back the doomsday clock, while an intriguing possibility, is far from a guaranteed plan.
  19. Amber Vulture
    If balefire can be used to make a player no longer exist, we probably wouldn't learn that player's role. If balefire can be used to bring people back to life, we probably wouldn't learn their role upon their initial death to avoid potential confirmed good/evil players. There are 14 books in the wheel of time series, which may have been an inspiration. Fifth's last wheel of time game had unique roles in it, and the fact that this is a blackout game makes it even easier to put in unique roles without giving players an easy way to prove those roles.
  20. Amber Vulture
    A lynch will do something at least. It probably has some chance of killing the target. It's possible that balefire could be used to prevent us from learning the roles of dead players, but the auto-lose condition likely means that nobody will be throwing balefire around randomly.
  21. Amber Vulture
    I'm still here, though I find myself not able to concentrate. Removing Albatross, Iguana, and Crocodile(unless someone else claims to have killed Rhino) for now. I don't believe elim teammates Scorpion and Rhino would immediately team up to lynch Iguana D2 without concrete signs that there would be village support. It would certainly be a bold strategy, but wouldn't look great if Iguana actually died and turned out to be village. Coral and Axolotl's votes on Albatross D2 look strange because pretty much the only way Albatross could be evil is if they saw Iguana's vote for Zebra at the last moment and changed their order at the last minute to ensure that Zebra died when it would be so easy to shift Iguana's vote and claim self-defense. Weasel should not be soft-cleared just for announcing that Albatross was scanned as village. Still, it's not unreasonable that there were three Skybreakers C2(unless it was a C1 scan). That's what I can remember without extensive rereading, which I'll probably do at some point.
  22. Amber Vulture
    There's a decent chance that the elims have at least one windrunner this cycle, and if Rhino is an Elsecaller this cycle we'll want to know now by trying the lynch first. Rhino could also be a Dustbringer, so lynching could prevent an extra kill.
  23. Amber Vulture
    Changing views on Lion are solely because Rhino voted for Lion this cycle, which is why I added the caveat that early cycle votes aren't necessarily indicative of not being on the same elim team.
  24. Amber Vulture
    As it's not LyLo and there are no roles or interactions that would cause a false elim scan, it's standard procedure to vote for Rhino with the understanding that Albatross's life is forfeit should Rhino be a villager. Looking through Rhino's posts, potential leads are the supposed person who was discussing the possibility in PMs with Rhino that Iguana bussed a teammate. Was there such a person who had this conversation? If so, what views did Rhino express? Opal Lion seems more likely to be good in this scenario assuming Rhino flips elim, although preliminary votes aren't particularly useful in determining teammates since they're changed easily. Iguana is also more likely village given Rhino's vote last cycle.
  25. Amber Vulture
    Well it doesn't look like the lynch on Rhino is going to go anywhere today, so in the interest of not lynching Albatross I'll switch my vote over to Opal Lion.
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