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dannnex
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Everything posted by dannnex
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So why do you get to live and prove your claim but I don’t? We both need to live one cycle to prove, if we just both wait a cycle, all the answers are given, and the village doesn’t lose either of the 2 most powerful roles. Edit: @Ashbringer there is a megapost on page 12 on why you shouldn’t vote me, and you should read it. And then not vote me.
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I’m the only one that can prove your Green Ajah claim though. If I don’t clear you, you’re on the chopping block next cycle. Food for thought.
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Just recently switched to Liranil.
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Ah. This is why you bold your votes people. there is, but it would take multiple cycles. I just prove by saying the results of my scans.
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I would like to turn the discussion back onto my voters, I feel like my pg12 megapost should be enough to convince them, but I don’t believe any of the people still on me have even acknowledged it. Lets call out them specifically, @Condensation, @Shard of Reading, @Ashbringer, why the radio silence? That megapost was made for you, you could at least respond to it.
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Well I hope the village has another Brown then.
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Wanna maybe do something to help ensure that?
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Yeah, but the fact that you don’t know the meta for Liranil shouldn’t matter, because it’s their second game, they don’t have enough previous games to play the meta with them. So I don’t know why Gears brought it up.
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What does meta have to do with a Liranil vote? Isn’t this Liranil’s second game? Not any meta to go off of.
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Ok, I’m back to Liranil. This might seem super suspicious and wishy-washy, but I have reasons. Last time I was only voting for Liranil out of self-preservation. I’ve actually gone over their posts since then, and am genuinely suspicious of them. Their Green Ajah claim is just too convenient, what are the odds we hang the only green in the game on D1? So this is a legitimate vote, while the last one was a preservation vote. Yeah, that’s why I removed my vote in the post you quoted, not sure what you’re saying here. I guess it’s moot anyway since I just added it back, but still.
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Ummm. Both people die in ties this game.
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This seems incredibly convenient, but my vote on you was dependent on you having a lesser role than me. Liranil. Why kill Matrim? He seems pretty village rn.
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Theoretically this is true, but if you actually look at my games, I’ve come up with convoluted plans in almost each and every one of my village games, and none in my neutral and Elim games. Also So many alarm bells. So many. I am almost convinced reading is Elim, and not just because they’re voting on me. This post appears to be following the tone of the thread, which is a gradual shift off of me, except it doesn’t actually shift off me. Seems like an Elim trying to casually remove their previous commitment because they know I’ll flip Vil and make my voters look suspicious.
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My mega post on page 12 could be used as a TL;DR of sorts.
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Liranil, completely out of self pres. Now this should tell you something. Earlier I was asking for a Vanilla (aka: the weakest possible role) to sacrifice themselves to give us valuable role information. Now, I myself am actively trying to prevent my own death, even though my death would also give us valuable information. However, I am not a hypocrite. So if I am voting Liranil, it’s because I believe that my role is likely more valuable than theirs. “But Dannex,” I hear you say, “we have absolutely no idea what Liranil’s role is!” And that is what should tell you something. Ofc, all those that are tunneling on me would just assume that I’m an Elim, because Elims would obviously self pres vote too. Which is fair. So let’s examine myself from their perspective, hm? What do I look like from an outside POV? I’ll do my best to explain anything that might’ve been confusing. 1. I join the thread, post some basic role analysis. Like multiple people were doing. Some people were claiming that this was Elim indicative, because I didn’t say anything that people before me didn’t already. Those people weren’t online when those were being posted. I was ninja’d about 14 times while I was writing that, the thread was very very active. I had no idea what the people before me were saying. So that’s explained away, completely NAI. 2. I suggest that if anyone was Vanilla they claim in the thread, as TJ is PAFOing all questions about it, and that piece of info is actually hugely important for role distribution predictions and analysis. I assumed this was a reasonable thing to suggest (and I still do), because Elims aren’t going to kill anyone that claims Vanilla, so it’s a very safe Roleclaim, and we only need a single person to claim for us to know that the role exists, so the Elims only cross off one person as someone who would be a bad target. Literally makes perfect sense to me, even now. Apparently it was suspicious to some people, and I can’t really refute this point because I still don’t see how it doesn’t make absolutely perfect sense. 3. Illwei says “ok fine, I claim village, what now”, trying to prove....idk that a villager might fake-claim vanilla and so my plan was flawed? Well, I see absolutely no reason for a village to fake-claim village. Sure, it might make the Elims not target you, so maybe high-value roles would fake-claim vanilla, but just staying in the shadows and not claiming at all makes much more sense. Illwei does kinda make a good point, although, I don’t think it was the one they were trying to. Elims could fake-claim vanilla to throw off our analysis, when actually there aren’t any vanilla roles. So I say: “ok then, we vote the village-claimers to see if they were telling the truth. It’s a messy solution, but the worst-case scenario (they’re actually a village vanilla) is still the best-case mishang (weakest and least valuable village role dies). And honestly, it’s D1, a best-case mishang is probably a safer bet than actually trying to find an Elim. On D1, the odds of finding an Elim are the lowest they’ll be all game, so this is the one cycle where it makes sense to hang for role-info.” I can understand why people think this is suspicious, it’s a somewhat convoluted plan, and there are one or two holes in it, but insane plans that seem like they shouldn’t work are literally my thing! Remember the PM chain? (And despite all the confusion that caused, it did actually work.) Or the time I suggested we use one time pads in the thread, in-case PMs were removed? (Pretty sure this one is actually what made the ‘no ciphers at all’ rule a thing. We didn’t actually do it iirc, but the possibility that we could was enough I guess.) At this point, me suggesting a somewhat game-breaking plan to get around GM restrictions is practically Village Indicative. I’ve even done it in other forum games entirely. Anyone remember House IGHTEJYW? 4. The final point is that people just read my tone as ‘aggressive’ or ‘pushy’. I blame the medium, it’s harder to convey tone over text. I wasn’t trying to be aggressive, but if you read my messages that way, I apologize. I don’t think tone alone should be indicative of anything though. NAI. So that’s my post. Trying to analyze myself objectively, and I came up with an NAI-Village read. I’ll preemptively answer a rebuttal to this: “What’s the difference between points 2 and 3? In 2 you say that the plan makes perfect sense, and in 3 you acknowledge that it has flaws. It’s a contradiction, and therefore you must be Elim.” Point 2 is me saying that me suggesting the plan makes perfect sense. The suggestion is not suspicious or AI, it’s a reasonable suggestion. Point 3 is me saying that the plan itself isn’t suspicious either. There’s some crossover, but it’s clear enough.
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Does anyone have a vote count? I don’t want to Roleclaim if I don’t have to, but if you all are still fixated on me, that’s my last bargaining chip. Edit: It should also be noted that this: Doesn’t contain any actual reasons. Very much sheeping, very suspicious.
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Oh c’mon, you again??? Your character arc ended like 4 seasons ago, just stay dead! Man, god needs to hire better writers. WTWTTS when you just won the lottery?
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A lot of this can be explained through game meta. Most of this is completely NAI for me. I usually post a role analysis, if only for my own benefit. I did kinda assume PMs, but it wasn’t conscious. Just used to assuming PMs when writing base analysis. I still think that if we have a vanilla they should claim. That piece of info is more important than y’all are assuming. Are you really sussing on me for using italics?? That’s hardcore tunneling if I’ve ever seen it. This seems like more tunneling to me. I didn’t intend my tone to seem aggressive, but because of the aforementioned tunneling, you read it as such. This can again be explained with meta, it’s a reference to something you didn’t see, it makes sense if you were there. I am still a little bit salty about that situation, so that could explain the apparent aggressiveness, although I still don’t read it as such.
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I have absolutely no idea how anything I’ve done counts as ‘aggressive’, I’m not pushing for anything! I don’t even have a vote right now. I have no PMs. Make of that what you will.
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I know this is a joke, but I absolutely wouldn’t put it past Elim!Quinn to legitimately say this... You did have me put my reads as 100% accurate last game when we were Elims together. Seems very similar....
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Illwei. I’m most suspicious of Reading and Connie, but they have given reasons for their votes that make a fair amount of sense. I guess I’m back to D1 abstaining unless something comes up.
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@Illwei mind responding to this?
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What’s a warden? Do you mean warder? Are you reversing your village claim? Warders can survive the hanging actually, so you would be completely fine. What does based mean Connie and Reading are my top Elim reads, and if Illwei confirms that they’re redacting their vanilla claim I’m switching to one of them.
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Have I asked anyone else to vote illwei? Have I expressed that I’m absolutely against voting anyone else? Have I done anything that even remotely seems like a ‘push’?
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This is debatable, especially on D1 when there’s not really enough info to have proper suspicions. This push on me is increasingly suspicious though, all I did was essentially poke vote Illwei, after they asked me what the continuation of my plan was.
