Eternum
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Transferring Blades happens during the Night, after Surge actions are taken, and thus a transferred Blade cannot be used until the next cycle. Ishar's Blade was in my possession N1 and was subsequently Recalled that same night. I confirmed this by using Tension on Mat: the aforementioned "lengths" I went to to pocket him, as he put it. Ishar's Blade was not used to alter the vote count. It was a secret role and Kaladin. I have it on very good authority that Kaladin removed one of the votes on Quinn. So, as I said in my other post, if anyone tried to prove their possession of Ishar's Blade by removing one of those votes, they are Kaladin, not the wielder of Ishar's Blade. The Shaman can confirm everything regarding Ishar's Blade, but I'd like to ask them to stay hidden, though I probably don't need to.
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Again, Ishar's Blade cannot have been used last cycle. So, if we accept the theory that Kaladin was trying to prove they have Ishar's Blade, using Tension on whomever they're trying to pocket would be a far better way of proving they have Ishar's Blade than Adhesion, and Kaladin cannot do this, which is obviously a red flag. Having said this: If anyone out there had this interaction with someone (i.e someone tried to prove to them they have Ishar's Blade), please come out and say it. That's Kaladin trying to pocket you, not the wielder of Ishar's Blade building a trust circle.
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Not quite. As far as I am aware, Ishar's Blade having been used last cycle is impossible. Take that as you will. Also, I have plenty of reason to believe Kaladin's Adhesion was used on you, specifically, so.. I wonder what it means..
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Shaman, you can trust me We both know the elims wouldn't start with that blade! Also, heavy sus on Quinn. That is all.
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Wait, Ishar's Blade? What's going on here? Can someone get me a vote tally before all the cancellations or whatever?
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Mostly, it is? I talked about my reads and while they've significantly changed since that post, I didn't want to include Connie in my "reads" per se since it was mostly the vote switch and the little "anyone else agree".
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I never said I'm not sus of Connie. The opposite, actually? Regardless, fair point. I need to ponder that lynch a little more.
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The elims want the Truthless dead just as much as they want the villagers. More, probably. That's why I think it should be considered essentially the same as a mislynch. In the situation you posit, they probably hopped onto it just to get rid of Danex.
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Great Britain. Nnnnno? You aren't? Honestly, though, I wonder who'd take you up on that. And, I'll admit, I read it like Fura and Quinn dit at first Honorblade holders, go claim to Illwei. Why not. If we see some oddly targeted kills, we'll know who it is! I'm.. trying to get a summary of D1 finished, as sort of a promise. I... suppose I'll try and do that for you. It's, well, essentially just what I'm doing anyway. Agreed on the Truthless, I think I mentioned that earlier. We don't actually know if elims can start with Honorblades, I'd like to note. You seem fairly certain about it, too..
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Mat's vote was on Danex far before Danex retracted their vote from Connie, so I believe you're misremembering. That's true, good point. However there's the question of Stormlight consumption, and also I think timezones tend to thwart most attempts at staying awake for late-night actions. By the time I fell asleep, Danex had 1 or 2 votes at most. When I woke up, well, they'd won,, so.. Sure, that's fair. Connie is decidedly not my strongest elim read. But I do think there's a chance, and it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
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She survived the lynch because a whole new train appeared and drew attention. Kaladin could have been doing an entirely different night action. Or they could have gone to sleep. Or they're inactive. Or, or, or..
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I trust Mat. Mostly. But I do think that's a bad idea Regardless, Shaman, stay covert, whatever you decide to do. Don't reveal to anyone. And certainly don't concentrate the Blades on one person, especially not someone who said that in thread
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Sure, I get it. Though now we're both doing what you said was suspicious, and trying to theorize the elim strats If I were elim, I'd also try to keep the more experienced players alive longer. Getting them mislynched, or fooling them, is half the fun Beyond that, I feel like our elim strategies don't differ that much. I do not have Pailiah's blade, and I never did. Hm. Might be worth checking their other games out, then. I'm.. still busy with the D1 thread
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It was just a random theory that popped in my mind as I was considering what you said in our PM and the way Mat hesitated when the Danex lynch started building last cycle. I was trying to see if there was anything to gain by trying to reverse-engineer the elim psychology, realized quickly that doesn't get us anywhere, and then had this theory. And it could obviously be wrong, but I think it's worth thinking about. Why that specific pool of people, out of curiosity? Why do you ask? Why do you care? Good point on vote reasoning. I've noticed multiple people only caring about vote justification when they're the one being voted, which feels hypocritical.
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First off, and you know who you are, thanks /s Second, I'd be amenable to voting Lotus, Experience or Quinn. I still think it's really weird how the lynch moved from Condensation to Danex (huge props to Danex, for the record, that was fantastic), but I have less of an elim read on them. Third, well, this is a pretty good outcome! It could absolutely be a WGG but after my PMs with Mat I'm inclined to trust him. I think Araris might be referring to you defending Gears? Not sure myself. EDIT: I would also like to note something I just realized: the elims probably wanted to kill Mat so that the originator of the Danex lynch flipped village and there was less suspicion on the train. I believe it's the weirder of the two trains, and now I'm certain there are elims in it. Of course, I might be completely wrong. Sidenote, I think the Danex lynch should essentially be considered as a villager lynch for all intents and purposes. The elims wanted them gone anyway.
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You're also probably the only elim read I'm comfortable with, so, same boat!
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Why are you people getting off of Connie? That's so weird. I don't like this at all. Quinn expressing severe doubt about the whole thing, now Illwei removing their vote? Why do you not want to kill Connie or Gears, Illwei? Isn't Connie at this point the kill that gets us the most info? You've been so vehement about this the whole time (unless I missed a post or something? multiple pages of the thread are the back-and-forth between you two) and now you just.. back off with essentially no explanation? I'm voting Ookla the Grammatical/Condensation. I don't know what, exactly, is happening here but all I know is that it feels weird and it makes no sense to me why you'd remove your vote. EDIT: And, to add onto that, you removing your vote from Connie puts Gears, the other person you didn't want lynched, in the running to be lynched. What does that get you? Gears has had significantly less discussion around him than Connie or you.
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Huh. I was thinking of someone else entirely! Lmao. My bad. Scratch that then, you're back to square 1
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I've begun to realize my quest of trying to analyze this whole thread in a post is impossible. I'm not used to LGs I'm just gonna go over the thread again and make a full reads post. For now, I'd like to note that Mat's giving me a pretty different vibe from the time we were elim together, so I'm leaning slightly village on him. As for everyone else (Mat included, this is subject to change as I read through his posts more carefully), reads coming soon.
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You wrote my name wrong so I'm just gonna believe you're a liar and trying to pocket me from now on. But in all seriousness, well, great minds think alike? It's just a situation where I genuinely don't get why either of these people want to lynch each-other. Bunch of tunneling going on, not much reasoning (at least on Illwei's part), a lot of defensiveness from Connie.. I'm curious, though. What do you see as a "village" or "elim" mindset? You say Connie finding all the contradictions in Illwei's posts comes from an elim mindset but, well, they're just using logic? I don't get that. Villagers *want* to call out suspicious things, that's the whole point of the game. I don't get why you'd need to, like, point this out? And take it as an example of an elim mindset? EDIT: Also, thanks Mat
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So if they're an elim they could be more active because they don't want to seem elim.. or less active.. because they don't want to seem elim/are on the elim doc.. or "averagely" active, whatever that can mean, because.. they don't want to seem elim.. You see the problem here? Activity rates don't really mean anything, especially on D1 At least, I think so.
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Well, hey Lotus! That's an odd take. Quantity of posts doesn't really mean anything? Also, lynching Connie or Illwei gives us plenty of information, I think. It's D1, after all, and they've been some of the most active, so lynching one of them isn't an objectively bad idea. Gears would be another solid choice, if we're looking solely at information gain, because of how many people defended him. But that's besides the point.
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I.. can't be the only one who is really confused about this whole interaction, right? Lmao. I don't like how Illwei is acting here. Honestly, I think they may be Truthless. I can't remember if I've played with them before, but if someone remembers previous games I'd like to know if this is their normal playstyle. Not much of what they're doing makes sense? I don't like Connie either, in all honesty. Especially the "anyone else agree", that set off a bunch of alarms in my head. I'm not going to vote yet, I suppose. I'd like some more information before I commit but, honestly? I'd be fine with lynching either at this point..
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That's.. fair, I guess. I feel like dude with Nightblood = Szeth = Elim isn't that farfetched a logic train to follow, though. Again, valid. Don't think about that part too much. There really isn't anything you can do about gut reads, and that's what that is. That was you leaving Stink alone after TJ remarked he voted on Gears the same way in.. MR44? Something along those lines. Don't worry about it much! I'm trying to pressure more information out in general, but I don't want to stress you out. That last part was mostly just me saying I didn't get much information out of that post rather than a burning condemnation of you
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So, I'm gonna read through the thread 'til now and summarize my thoughts in chronological order. Hopefully this doesn't become a wall of text. (Spellchecking Eternum here, I lied. I knew what was going to happen.) Gears analysis post, as per usual. Notably, this time they actually wrote it after their GM PM, which might have affected things. Last time I saw them do this, they'd written the post beforehand. Not an alignment indicative thing, just something I remembered. (I was elim that game, if it matters :P) Reading through the analysis properly, it's odd that they gave advice to the elims even though they wrote the post after their GM PM. I don't know how I feel about that. Stink votes Gears. Just Stink being Stink. Moving on. Quinn says the bearer of Nightblood should hold off on killing. Again, weirdly, advice to the elims, though I suppose this can change as the game progresses. Mat delves a little into the jester mentality and how we should play it. Pokes Gears on the topic. NAI. Shade aggressively votes Gears, and seems content with lynching the Truthless if it comes to it. I think that's pretty fair, in an ordinary game, but it actually harms the village in this one, so I don't know how to feel about it. Truthless claims should obviously be taken with a solid heap of salt, but we shouldn't be too eager to get rid of them either. On the other hand, claiming helps neither the Truthless nor the Stone Shaman. Truthless can be elim-killed to free up the Shaman's protection, so the elims would rather they be dead too. An elim claiming Truthless to defend themselves when they'd prefer the Truthless die doesn't make much sense. Maybe I'm looking at this wrong, though. Books gives some very good advice to the Shaman. I'd actually forgotten about the list they get, so that's nice. Responds to Mat, which I also like, cause it promotes more discussion about the Truthless. Weirdly strong village lean from a single post. Not sure why. A little bit of confusion over whether Gears claimed elim or not. Experience doesn't say much, pokes at Stink to clarify his vote which, well, doesn't tend to yield much information Quinn rereads the thread, specifically rethinks their opinion on Gears's post, which feels a little off to me for some reason? Mostly because it seems to be a result of TJ being so vehemently against the Shaman claiming. Araris votes Experience, clarifies Gears's "claim". I didn't feel like it was that confusing, but hey, others seemed to not get it. Fair enough. I didn't get much out of Quinn's next post, but on their Nightblood comment: I think one of the secret roles might have the goal of getting Nightblood instead of being killed by it. Alv notes the elims want the Shaman dead, obviously, and generally agrees with Gears. NAI. Illwei is confused by jester roles, wants to play as if the Truthless doesn't exist. Valid but, imo, not a good idea. Araris clarifies on the Truthless's relationship with the village and I completely agree with his take, I think I said something about that earlier. Mat's next post doesn't say much. Keeps mentioning they didn't know about the importance of the Truthless. Devotary points out that Gears is giving advice to the elims, worries about Ishar's blade going to the elims and facilitating NB kills. Valid concern, though statistically unlikely, I guess. Also first person to mention the possibility of elims starting with Honorblades. I think that's the case. If that didn't happen, the Shaman would just get a list of villagers at the end of D1 or C1 or whenever they actually see the Honorblade wielders. Illwei says Araris is assuming the Truthless knows the Shaman which.. changes nothing? I don't get the point, and wouldn't mind them explaining. A couple NAI posts, then Illwei votes Connie for.. a NAI post, with no reasoning for it. Weird, but not much to delve into here. Connie asks for a reason SfS.. claims elim. Sigh. Araris, like the jaded old man he is, yells at clouds. Clouds being new players. NAI post, jokes aside. Danex's first post is about secret roles, and this seems to be a pattern with them. Interesting. I skimmed the posts that happened since I started writing this, and they presented the same theory as me, but I'll get to that later. Quinn asks about Honorblades possibly starting in elim hands. Imo, absolutely. Not sure why I'm getting a bad vibe from this post. Stink isn't vibing with the discussion, sort of explains his vote on Gears. Valid, I suppose. Not out of character for him. Quinn sort of kind of defends Gears, Stink doubles down. I like Stink a little more for that, but I disagree with ignoring the Truthless (though the other roles aren't really worth contemplating until we know more about them), I think I mentioned that earlier too. We would kind of like them to stay alive for a while. Quinn seems super hesitant to vote off Gears, which I don't get. It doesn't really hurt us? Illwei contemplates the possibility of PMs just not opening, seems to forget two Blades can do that. Quinn hopes the elims think PMs can help them too, which makes some sense but it helps village more than it helps them, also has the same epiphany as Devotary, seems to forget only one Blade can do that. Connie finds rule analysis posts helpful, thinks it's weird people don't read through the rules entirely before the game. Honestly, I don't do that either I like doing it as I analyze the thread, though I don't really know why. It's just kind of how I do things now, I guess. Helps me put my thoughts together. It isn't an excuse to not post, though, and I don't think anyone used it as such. Weird vibe from this one. TJ's giving me the same vibes as in the other game we played together and they were village in that one, so I'm leaning in the same direction this time too. They.. kind of say this exact same thing about Stink. Lmao. A few reads, which are good to have. Mat posted his earlier as well, I forgot to comment on those. Good to keep any reads posted in mind for the future. Quinn sort of falls in line with TJ. Again. That's.. weird. Makes me rethink TJ, too. Pokes Mat about his SfS read. My post is obviously the most effortlessly village post the english language allows. Probably single-handedly solved the game right then and there. Thanks for playing, guys, gals and nonbinary pals. T'was fun. Mat votes on Connie, though it doesn't seem to have much intent behind it. It's understandable, and not a very elim move imo. SfS take is NAI. A rule analysis post by Quinn, which imo doesn't say all that much? I've been feeling iffy about them the whole time. Illwei doubles down on their vote, Connie just sort of putting a bunch of thoughts in there makes them feel better about it, apparently. I get where they're coming from. That's how Gears phrases those posts, for the record: His advice is just how he sees the game and, from what I remember, he's been pretty amenable to accepting his strategies could be wrong. People aren't quite tunneling on Gears, though how many people are defending him is very weird to me. It's the end of page 2 and I'm *exhausted.* I'll leave it here for now, see what's been happening recently, and continue the rest of the analysis when I can. This is 11 whole pages on my notes app. Yikes.
