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Nyali

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Everything posted by Nyali

  1. Nyali
    I'm most suspicious of Jondesu right now. I don't have time right now for a full analysis, so I'll just leave it at that. Hopefully, I'll find time tomorrow for such an analysis.
  2. Nyali
    Well, while I do still suspect Polking, I have far stronger suspicions of Stink than anyone else being voted for. So, Polking and Stink.
  3. Nyali
    I haven't been following this game enough to have suspicions. I do think though that we should continue exploring, as previously stated. I explored last night, but I found nothing again.
  4. Nyali
    Well, Stink was second on my suspicion list, but Polking is still on top. I haven't been following this game very well due to it being Thanksgiving in the states, plus there's baby Shallan to wrangle. (She is trying very, very hard to post her thoughts in this thread, but that's against the rules, so I'm doing my best to stop her xD). Aman's suspicion of me is valid, honestly. I haven't been playing like I normally do, but I normally don't have a baby to deal with when posting on workdays. (If you saw this post pre-edit, that was Shallan saying hi and hitting post for me before I was ready.) I will say though that I did have what I feel was a valid reason to vote on Elbereth. I didn't bandwagon on her, I voted for a specific reason (a change in tone I noticed compared to other games I've played with her). I did express suspicion of JUQ, but not enough to vote on them. I really think the elims are Stink, Polk, and Jondesu. I agree with a lot of Aman's analysis, though not his opinion of Polk or myself.
  5. Nyali
    I still think it's Polking.
  6. Nyali
    Actually, add Polking to my suspicion list. Lopen only went after Polking and Elbereth, so that has to put at least a little suspicion on Polking, though it could be misdirection of course. Also, he went after JUQ the moment this turn started in a way that makes me suspicious of him. So, might as well start off with Polking. I might change that to one of the other people I'm suspicious of later in the turn. (putting this in a new post instead of an edit to my previous one 'cause Dani posted while I was writing it)
  7. Nyali
    Gah, sorry El, I did say it was a super weak reason that I voted for you, but it's all I really had =\ I'm now suspicious of too many people, JUQ, Stink, and Jondesu being highest among them. I'll post more when work is less busy.
  8. Nyali
    Is it okay that some of us are here because we like elimination games, love Brandon Sanderson books, and enjoy the complexity of the games run here, and not because of the RP? I do like RP, but I generally get enough of it in person through LARPs and tabletop games. Elimination games are one thing I can't do in person because no gaming group I've ever been a part of takes them seriously, which makes them totally not fun. So, I was excited to see that people on my favorite author's fan forum were running online elimination games, and joined to get in on that aspect, and not the RP aspect. Should I stop signing up for games if I don't plan to RP in them?
  9. Nyali
    I don't have great suspicions yet, this being day one and all, but El does seem to be behaving differently than usual. From her posts, it almost feels to me like El is super excited about something, and investing far more in the game than she initially planned to, so that speaks to me of her getting an interesting role. Since the only interesting roles around here are eliminators, I think I'm going to go with Elbereth for now. I know it's a super weak argument, but that's all I really have right now. Day one lynches are, as stated, a stab in the dark hoping to hit an elim.
  10. Nyali
    If all the elims are willing to vote to save an elim, then lynching them will be trivial. That's basically saying that all of the elims will reveal themselves if one is voted on. I highly doubt that's the case. If one person has 4 votes on them and another has 7 and that other person turns out to be innocent, then those seven are rather suspect, imo. They have to include at least one elim. Also, if I'm wrong about the number of omens being fixed, then we just need to find ~35 omens for everyone to win xD
  11. Nyali
    There are 2 elims and 35 players. That's, what, a 6% chance that a random person I pick is actually an elim? And soft-clears are meaningless since there could easily be another 2 elims tomorrow? I dunno how useful that would be. How do people feel about continuing to explore tonight, by the way? I think continued exploration, even with being unable to find the Heart of the House (unless we get super lucky today), we'll get the elims out sooner. If I'm right that the number of omens is fixed, getting them all out asap seems prudent. It increases the chance we'll kill them with a random lynch, and it (in theory) doesn't give them more killing power. Whether there are 0 or 6 elims, exactly one villager dies every night, as I understand it. The sooner people get converted from our exploration the more information we have on the elims and the more we can rely on soft-clears, which are meaningless while random players are still being converted. (For anyone who has played the Battlestar Galactica board game, my strategy in that game has always been to rush to 4 distance asap so all the traitor cards can be dealt out. That's basically what I'm arguing for here.)
  12. Nyali
    Hi, I'm here and thought I'd post, but work is busy, so I can't really do an analysis yet. I'll post again before the cycle is up with what I think. Regardless, I do better when there's data to analyze, and there isn't much to work with on day one.
  13. Nyali
    There are too many players in this game for me to get any sort of read on anyone x.x I'm having trouble following all this - I'll probably vote for an inactive once I determine who is inactive, as they are just as likely to become elims as anyone else, but they add less to the town if they are not elims.
  14. Nyali
    I found wax seals... which were immediately stolen, I think.
  15. Nyali
    http://www.pending.me.uk/create-anonymous-countdown
  16. Nyali
    If we stop exploring when there's a single eliminator and start lynching looking for that eliminator, when we do start exploring again, we will have a vastly increased elim:villager ratio, which is bad. Consider - 30 villagers, 1 elim. Ratio: 1:30. We take five turns to find the elim, and the elim kills five people, resulting in 0:20. Now we go exploring and find another four omens. We now have a ratio of 4:16, or 25%, and we have very few items due to waiting to explore. Consider instead we go exploring a lot from the beginning and don't stop. We find 5 elims very early on, resulting in a ratio of 5:25, or 20%, and we have tons more items. It just feels disadvantageous to NOT explore, to me. Assuming of course that the deck is stacked such that we'll run into the same number of omens regardless of when we explore. Does that make sense?
  17. Nyali
    It's literally impossible to clear people in a conversion game. If you confirm they're a villager, and then next turn they get turned, you have no clue that happened. I think we should prioritize exploring and all do it if we all can because we win by exploring the right location, and any omens we find along the way we'd find anyway. By having us all explore and burn through the rooms deck asap, we get out the same number of traitors, but we get them out earlier. The earlier the better - one traitor has a kill and is very hard to find in a game of 34 players, but if we can get like, five omens by turn 2, we can then use traditional methods to clear people and find out who we need to lynch. Getting past the conversion phase as quickly as possible seems like the key to the village winning a game like this. So, let's exhaust that Rooms deck, or however Wyrm is running it!
  18. Nyali
    Well, I don't think there's much to talk about just yet. Remember to explore the house, everyone! We need to figure out what's going on and where Kasther went. Or maybe just find his map. Or even the key. Regardless, we need to get out of here and we can't do that just sitting around.
  19. Nyali
    What killed me? I didn't see it in the action sheet.
  20. Nyali
    Great! I've been missing this sort of game. The average complexity of games here is pretty wonderful, but at the same time, zero complexity games are also fun. Well, if there are no roles, I might as well sign up as Nyali. I promise to be active at least until I die. No promises after that.
  21. Nyali
    Thanks for the game! It was fun, even if I died early.
  22. Nyali
    Just to elaborate, my earlier post stems from how I play coop games with a traitor mechanic where the traitor is generated partway through the game (Betrayal, Battlestar Galactica, etc). I gather resources, but try to play just suboptimally enough that if I turn out to be the traitor, I still have a chance to win. Sure, we can minmax it such that we find the heart asap, but if you turn out to be a traitor, you've just shot yourself in the foot. And, we don't start out as villagers and elims from the start. We're not "all villagers." We're all potential eliminators from the start. Until an elim or two is generated, we are all honestly best served helping ourselves over others. You don't know if you're on their team yet. But, that's just my opinion. Feel free to have other ones!
  23. Nyali
    Your strategies are good but boring. You're basically telling 95% of the game to do nothing for the first turn. I dunno about others, but I'd rather play a game than win a game. Also, if only one omen can be found on N0, having everyone explore gives us ~10-20 times as many resources as the lone traitor. If two traitors are generated, that's still ~5-10 times as many resources.
  24. Nyali
    If there are no omens found on Night 0, I hope we all agree not to lynch anyone on Day 1 xD
  25. Nyali
    Just a clarification - does the game start on Friday the 18th or Saturday the 19th?
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