Darkness Ascendant

9 hours ago, Abstrusity said:

I have a few feelings, after rereading the previous several days. I'm feeling wary of Darkness Ascendant. Scanned as guilty by Lumgol, and immediately Lumgol was killed, before they could 'calibrate' their readings (as we believed it to work last cycle.) They were the only one not to vote for the same target last cycle, which just feels off. What's odd is their lack of a vote Cycle 1, when they could have saved or helped to save Striker. I'm also somewhat suspicious of Coda. They were the only one other than myself who voted for Lemonelon C1 and is still living. As for who's least suspicious, I can't really tell. Everyone still here has something against them. 

Hahahaha I'm starting to think my personality isn't suited to SE, I'm way too insecure right now to play into it and mess around with people but right now I'm just getting frustrated by how divisive it seems to be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Elandera said:

Darkness Ascendant - Slight elim read. Like I said on Coda's read, I don't think scanning is useless, and a lot of my read is coming from how vehemently they're opposed to even submitting the actions.

Sart - No read so far. Like DA, I think it's worth looking into them since they were scanned elim, even if we suspect some of those read may be bad.

An eliminator would want scanning to be pushed heavily, I'm not saying scanning is useless its just useless without proper organisation and it'd require a level of organisation that is just not suited to a QF, if you guys don't mind I could organise everyone to scan another person so that theres a scan on everyone and then we can pool in the results next cycle and do the same for one more? I'm just worried about its inefficiency and people being reliant on them.

 

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

His late-cycle argument against the Lynch, though, is troubling. He had to know that he couldn't change the Lynch that late with such an overwhelming lead -- but if he'd pulled one or two people off it, he could have killed the majority, and kept us from learning how it works.

I didn't tho  

 

 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Darkness Ascendant

Distanced himself from Striker after he died and accused Lum. I wouldn’t think Darkness Ascendant would go after and vote for the person he was planning to kill, but I’m not sure why he put so much focus on how much he didn’t trust striker after striker was already banished. Slight elim read

Literally just c/p the notes I'd taken whilst reading throughthe thread throughout the day. Didn't have time to edit them and stuff

37 minutes ago, Lemonelon said:

Hey, train seems to be heading for Darkness so I will join too.

Not had much time for analysis this round, little one was in A&E but back home now and have time  tomorrow to go through properly.

Quote

Yeah, the existence of types where there are some odds involved on whether you get the right answer or not doesn't really come as a surprise, so back to good old detective work we go. And by good old detective-work, I mean we start lynching semi-randomly untill we manage to gather some more info  

In all seriousness though, if I exclude the people that voted on Striker and Lemonelon (and myself), I'm left with the following five: Snipexe, Coda, Darkness Ascendant, Abstrusity, and Elandera. So, let's see if anything stands out about them.

Snipexe

Snipexe speculated a bit about possible Roles C1, which is NAI. He also seemed to be somewhat slow in joining the generally accepted theory that everyone is a tineye, which is...interesting. He also tried to throw some shade on Lumgol with little success, which is odd given Lumgol's vote on Striekr the previous cycle.

Verdict: slightly suspicious.

Coda

@Coda has exactly one post to their name, in which they stated a lack of time and voted on Lemonelon. it should be ntoed that the activty filter will take them down if they don't post this cycle, so lynching them this cycle is probably not really a good idea.

Verdict: should talk more

Darkness ascendant

DA purposefully didn't say anything meaningful during C1. I can see where that attitude comes from, as its hard to come up with something to contribute C1, but if no one even tries, C2 will just be C1 all over again, so I don't really like that. I'ts not particularly alignment indicative though.

Anyway, there where some contributions and reads during C2, which is nice. I don't really like their push on Lumgol, but for the rest it seems reasonable, including their decision to abstain on the Devotary wagon (it'd have been more of an elim play to join the wagon than to stand out, I think). I don't really have a solid read on them yet, but I'm not too suspicious.

verdict: slight village.

Abstrusity

They where tone of the first to break open the whole 'everyone is (probably) a tineye' thing, but apart from that they don't really stand out much in their posts. There's some reasonable votes, but not much else. @Abstrusity, right now, who do you consider to be the most and least suspicious?

verdict: *shrug*

Elandera

She's active and seems to be working to solve the game, or at least the mystery of this game (which is NAI). She hasn't shared too many reads so far though (I think the only one was a good gut read on me). @Elandera, who do you consider to be the most and least suspicious right now?

verdict: *shrug*

I'm going to start things off with a vote on Snipexe.

Why are you excluding everyone who voted on Striker and lemonoemaleone?

Not exactly sure about what the "purpose" would be in not being active C1 besides there being no purpose because theres nothing to do to begin with. And query, did C2 end up being the same as C1? And yeah theres a reason my push on Lum didn't go anywhere, was just a gut read that ended up being wrong. Lum was being herself the entire time and that honestly weirded me out a little cos I expected some level of 5head manipulation and plays  Just gotta play more with her I guess.

EDIT: is anybody else's post box thingy where you write stuff messing up big time? Does this post look weirdly formatted in any way? All the quote boxes and sutff look super long to me and I don't want to make anyone get annoyed at all the scrolling XD

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

I feel like a very confused Tineye at the moment. Bard, this is positively the best trolling I've seen in a while.

It means we actually have to do work at it and not just lynch every person that scans as evil. But I don't think we should give up scans entirely. There are probably a few of us at least who have reliable scans, and it could really help later in the game when things come down to just a few players. If a few people have been able to calibrate their scans (scanned several people who later died) and get all accurate results, then they can be statistically certain their results are going to be correct.

Very good point about confirmation bias though. Lynches, early on at least, need to be determined by things other than scan results. I still stand by what I said last time though. There's a good possibility that at least one who was scanned as thug turn is actually a thug. That's down to Sart and DA, I believe, from last turn results. Anyone else get scanned as elim?

EDIT: It might be worth scanning the same person two turns in a row to see if you get consistent results, though I do still believe there may be a redirect ability.

We can't trust the scans at all,this structure allows for anybody to lie and just claim that they're confused should their scan turn out to be incorrect. We wouldn't know unless they're dead and thats an extremely annoying position to be in. I'm just hoping that there are some secret roles that are actually useful instead of this crap. Only in that instance can I accept this as good trolling, right now it just looks like really poor and annoying design.

As somebody who has studied statistics we simply don't know enough to gauge what a good proability of either of us being actually a thug (Obviously I'm not a thug and would never say that I'm a thug but we're just going to assume that Sart and I are neither for the time being since you guys don't have reliable information saying otherwise) If you would like to confirm entirely I suggest some other people scanning sart and I (I'd say 3 for either of us but like I said before...this just feels like an inefficient amount of effort for such a small and quick game...)

Its really not worth scanning the same person twice unless you have lots of people scanning the same person twice. 50/50 chances is just way too arbitrary for one person to accurately gauge.

I really don't think relying on scans right now is the right way to go. For now lets try and make sure everybody gets scanned.

Think of it this way.

- Everybody who gets scanned thug is either a villager or a thug
- Everybody who gets scanned vilalge is either a villager or a thug
- Somebody who gets scanned as both is being targeted by 1 or more confused thugs, from here the lying and manipulation can be annoying and death will only give us absolute information in the loosest sense.

- Somebody who gets consistently scanned as one however, is the only instance where we can reliably trust that information (And even then theres the off chance that everybody scanning them is confused and consitently got the wrong result which is very low but still). The effort to do this is far too difficult as we'd need to be focusing on one or two people each cycle to target and 2 people die each cycle already and as we'd have to announce and direct who's targeting who the elims could easily just kill one of the people that night (Unless they're actually a thug in which case they could easily claim confusion). In this the information we'd be gaining is HORRIBLY inefficient and we must focus more on the other elements of elimination.

For a far more efficient retrieval of information I'll give a potential way of organising people into targeting different and separate people so that we have a 'base' read on everyone and can spend a couple of turns building those scans so we get a better idea of who's actually a thug and who's actually a villager.

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Ugh. I forgot how quickly these type of games move. Darkness Ascendant. I'm voting on you. As a Thug, you would know the Devotary lynch was pointless, so you would score village points if you fought against it. You also tried to direct suspicion towards Lumgol, who voted on the Elim, and is now confirmed good.

5head over here. As a thug you would know that voting on me because as a Thung i would know that the Devotary lynch was pointless so I would score village points so you would score village points.

Checkmate. Only not voting on you because I pity your ability to reason 

EDIT: obligatory mashadar panda because pandemonium

Confused Tineye.

Wow. 

Incompetent much

EDIT: I'm starting to dislike these mechanics because of how much effort (probability wise) it would take to determine if someone was confused or not, bit of a waste of cycles. PErsonally I honestly think screw the scan actions entirely and focus on analysis and the lynch. Its just not valid or reliable enough to use our tineye abilities. Also be vary of stuff like confirmation bias.

What the heck is going on >.>

On 19/11/2019 at 9:42 PM, Ookla the Wine Shelf said:

if something cannot be proven it should not be used in science.

The theory you're speaking of is called "Falsifiability" and its the tenet that if something cannot be *PROVEN FALSE* then it should not be considered in the scientific fabric. Nothing in this world can be "proven true". 

As for the rest of this conversation- thats a clustertruck that I do not even want to start to pull part ( I read the first post first, noted how ironic the propositions were then typed the above, then read the rest of the thread and am now Noping out :P)

4 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

sorry, school and my brain are both kicking my chull rn, I'm trying to post and thanks for poking me

(edit: omg the swear filter is hilarious I love it)

Many lucks that are good be bestowed upon thou

Y'all are confusing me as to the Devotary bandwagon, so imma also do an iso on devo.

Points out the useless nature of role claiming however is not the first person to do so- Neutral read.

Weirdly less supportive of the lynch on Striker due to the amount of people voting on him. Slight elim read- really shaky reasoning.

Really doesn't add much until he weirdly agrees to being lynched for more information?? Maybe there's a role that wants to get lynched guys?

I do not like this post sam I am, I do not like bullcrap and uh ham.

"The people have spoken" How is that any justification for making your own decision- you clearly have spoken @Wonko the Sane and have said you don't like the lynch and then you waltz right into it. Sounds like an eliminator trying to get in a village kill whilst having a backdoor later on.

- I also scanned Wonko last cycle and he scanned village to me.

I do not like how we all seem to be scanning the same people- that seems like the perfect setup for some bullcrem.

I suggest 3 people at the *most* scan Devo

I'm less suspicious of Lum at this state but am concerned at her recession in activity.

Right now I'm throwing my vote on Wonko the Sane

Random dotpoints from skimming the threads (Had a really really really long day sorry this took so long)

• The archives were probably on Copperminds and we know it was one of the students in the academy so there's a potential case for people to have fragments of a metalmind or all the fragments (being the one to have destroyed the archives)

• Quote

  As he read the letter saying that his, and all the other potential students’, records had been lost, he began to see red

  - Striker’s character is overcompensating for something

• I haven’t played enough with Lum but she waffles a lot in C1 whilst dropping the suggestion of roleclaiming/roleguessing in the midst of it.

  • Striker is weirdly supportive of this. Both mention that it would help the elims however.

• Positive read on Elandera, called Striker/Lum out for the aformentioned issue

• Striker’s response to this calling out is a bit long winded and fluffy again, kind of sus

• Determined thugs in that they might be Pinnacle Ferrings in that they might be able to “save” attack orders to make one big attack maybe? In like manic state.

• Positive read on DeTess

• Loads of backtracking on Striker…

• Suspicious of straw, feel like he’s deliberately restraining what he’s saying.

• Positive read on Wonko, basically said what I was thinking 

• ALso what the heck lemonel you edited in a Vote without tagging me? Lame

• @Fifth WHY ARE YOU WRITING IN YELLOW

• Lum’s indecision in the face of Striker’s lynching is very suspicious of me, specially in the context of their little roleclaim conversation in the beginning of the cycle which most people seem to have overlooked.

_______________________

Cycle 2

• Increasing suspicion of Lum- Lum scanned me as evil and felt the need to share that for some reason

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Okay cool so yeah Striker ended up being dead. This whole everybody is Tineye thing is really interesting- I question as to whether we're half allomantic tineyes and half hemalurgic tineyes (No idea if thats already come up I'm pretty tired rn).

For now throwing my vote on Lum , definitely think she's worth lynching for her sus actions so far. I'll do a proper iso analysis in the morning when I'm less depressed goodnight

5 hours ago, Straw said:

Look at the Hunger Games QF or Stink's Pokemon QF.

No we need fortnite

Might need a rebranding for my current tastes but Jax Sengril Lekal would like to sign up.

We should make an SE: Battle Royale

Seeing cool art makes one want to make cool art, fill your social feeds with fun artists like, personal reccomendations- Mr Werewolf, Gorchart, Kim Jung Gi, Iannocent and Hummingfluff from the top of my head

20 hours ago, Lumgol said:

ok sooooo... hi. Checking in! sneak sneak sneak sneak snek I mean what?  

DA is being DA right now. Looks like trolling. Sart is C1 voting, which is also mostly trolling (I assume) and I'm counting it as a harmless C1 vote.

19 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

How dare you accuse DA of being too sneaky. Sneaking is an important part of this game. Shame on you. Sart.

Chunga chunga chunga chunga

Not much to say I'll say more next cycle

29 minutes ago, Sart said:

That's a lot of sneak. Too much sneak. Darkness Ascendant is being too sneaky right now. No sneak for you.

Dr Steinman, the out of time and space false objectivist german doctor is here to sign up.

He's honestly more interested in feruchemy and hemalurgy in envisioning his ideal of beauty in human form but maybe Allomancy could help out a little.

One of the few games that has been a delight to spectate, which made the fact that I missed out of playing by a day a lot easier to deal with *wipes tear.

Thanks for running it Alv :] 

Yeah sorry @Alvron I'm going to have to take a spectator position as well. Considering how long QFs take- I'd assumed sign-ups would have been over quicker and the game would have started sooner but I can only afford to play for the next week and after that, it would be irresponsible.

May I have a spec doc link as well please?

I keep coming online to see if the game has started and keep getting dissapointed.

Alv why do you do this to me

On 16/06/2019 at 8:30 AM, Kidpen said:

Meta Character (Pronounced May-ta Car-actor), an insane man who believes himself to be only a character created in a collaborative story is signing up against his better judgement. He doesn't approve of the plan to shoot the zombies, and would instead suggest either chopping them up with a sword or running away and observing them to discover their physical capabilities.

Aww I thought you were going to be Larry the cable guy...i.e the actor for may-ta from cars 

Lorenzo Zombie-eater signed up just as he saw the two zombies and he ate them.

Good thing he was a cannibal who was immune to the zombie virus.

That's allowed right.

2 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Hmmm... with mention of bunnies in the base in the RP, I feel like that's GM speak for "Seriously, you need to get your act together because the base is being overrun by Krell." Which is kind of worrying. I don't think we know the health of the base, but I get the sense that it's probably not healthy after how disorganised we've been.

I'll IMP 3A, and @Lumgol can finish it off.

Crap I didn't even think about that, I've been assuming the base health would be given to us.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I never got around to analyzing you. But I have been flip flopping on what I think your allignment is all game. I dont like how you are actively trying to extract village cred by not lynching a villager. This is a common misconception people have. Elims are no more likely to lynch villagers than other villagers. If anything, they are less likely.

Nope, just pointing out how I wasn't 100% in with lynching Sart and my gut-read ended up being right. More self-effacing than anything

Well there we go, the power of doubt. This is why I retracted my vote on Sart... I think there may be something to be seen in the votes that did occur that might be indicative of elim behaviour. Just a possibility.

@StrikerEZ I'll target 2A alongside you

I'll try and get some good analysis in by the end of the night...

3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Can you explain how his recent responses have given you reasonable doubt? Because, to me, they've only made more suspicious of him.

Its mostly the part that its such a weak and forlorn response that I'm wondering whether work and stuff are causing him to be inactive to the point that he doesn't really care about being lynched or not. He doesn't seem to be offering much resistance as I'd assume an Elim would- the first part can be ignored entirely. 

Casting the shade on bard is where I am suspicious- since I'm not sure how Drake knows Bard accidentally lightlanced someone and I'm not sure whether Sart's just casting shade on Bard to be a little scummy.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Also, i'll give Maill a break this cycle, but if he hasn't posted a nice player analysis post by EoD 4, I think we should lynch him then.

Fura are you even paying attention, Elandera is one of the most active people here lol. And I don't think you're in any position go around giving other players ultimatums and encouraging baseless lynches. (If you were in a position to do so I would just call you out for mayoring )

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Young Bard said:

OK, I didn't feel like I needed to respond to this when Sart voted on me, but...

Did people forget the part where I'm hard-cleared?  (Well, there's the possibility that Drake is lying, and that we're in an Elim team together, but that's not the kind of maneuver an Elim team would pull that early in the game.) While I'm here, Sart, the reason Drake suddenly trusted me so much is because they had proof I submitted an action (Light-lancing them) that I could not have done as a Gunner.

And... even besides that, I don't agree that Sart being an Elim in any way indicates I'm an Elim. I didn't just vote on Sart, I lead the lynch against them. For me to be an Elim, you'd have to believe that we, the Elim team, first decided to take an enormous risk and have another Elim lie to cover me, therefore guaranteeing that if one of us was lynched the other would almost immediately follow suit, demonstrating an extreme unwillingness to get one of our own lynched, and then the very next round, do a complete 180 on our strategy and decide to bus our own teammate.  So I really don't follow this logic..

Yeah I have no idea what to think of the "hard-clear". What was the proof again and how is the proof even trustworthy?

And ngl Bard you're sounding awfully defensive in a way that isn't really needed at all- which is weird since apparently you didn't feel a need to respond before? What's gotten you to feel threatened enough to actually think out these convoluted/single-hinged defences.

I don't really recall anyone really gunning to lynch you, Striker himself wasn't really that whole-hearted behind it. I just admitted to being a little suspicious, and Fura just pointed out that Striker's logic should cause him to vote on you as opposed to Sart.

Just feels a little extra, in my opinion.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Elandera said:

I'm a bit suspicious of DA, but I think it's mostly play style. He seems super aggressive, which gives me a bad gut read. I'm ignoring it right now, though, because there hasn't been anything actually suspicious.

I am pretty aggressive in thinking but only until I've eased out everything a line of thinking has provided me. So I actually end up being super indecisive  

All in all: I'm starting to think lynching Sart might be the best course of action again...

Everything other than him seems to be very murky. Lynching him would lead to some cut and dry results.

• If he's village then his thoughts on Bard should be explored fully and then a judgement will have to be made.
• If he's Elim then Bard is most likely village as the whole bard thing would probably have just been a last-minute ploy to lynch a villager and give himself a cycle's worth of time to figure something out. I agree with bard's reasoning upon the whole 'if Sart's elim then bard is probably elim' thinking (although for all we know this 
• If he's SK then...he's either a genius or extremely lucky lmao

I don't really have enough time to go over everything and piece stuff together and as far as short-term gain goes, Sart is possibly the best choice.

Yeah, I know I've been back and forthing on him but I've genuinely just been thinking (maybe overthinking) a lot and well with these things there are just so many possibilities that I tend to put them off until I can ascertain things.