Amanuensis
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To respond to you from earlier (I don't feel like multiquoting right now) that table was from my personal notes, so it takes into account information that I have available to me. I understand where you're coming from about not trusting me just because I put GM PM in proof. That was really just a joke, even if it IS true. As for the rest of it, I'll see what I can explain. Lopen is unlikely a Darkfriend because he was very involved in lynching both Sart AND Gunshy. Then again, that doesn't rule him out entirely because Seonid DID bus Sart, which I brought up as a possibility and a reason I suspected him in this post of mine from N1: I'm pretty confident Lopen claimed he believed Seonid was a villager in thread, and I know without a doubt that he said so in our PM (I asked him what he thought of my analysis' and Seonid's was the only one he disagreed with at the time). So, with Seonid being revealed Darkfriend and me being completely right about him from the very first day, I could see him being evil too. Because Lopen helped kill not just the Forsaken on D1 but a Darkfriend Whitecloak on D2, it's assumed he isn't one because that would be an incredibly risky thing to do for trust. However, given many player's desire to see those two killed, I could see Lopen encouraging the mob mentality to ensure their team's long game survival, as if he did come to either's defense instead (as he did for Seonid) it could have inevitably made him look very, very bad, and I think he's smart enough to realize that. I haven't ruled him out as a Darkfriend quite yet, but he's at the bottom of my suspicions as there are currently several more players that look a lot worse. Anyway, since no player can have two roles (I.E. Fain AND Aiel-Blooded) that is why some players are ruled out as not Padan but maybe Darkfriend. I have not even begun to legitimately consider who has been Corrupted yet, as I think we need to figure out who Fain is first to get an idea of who they would go for on the very first night, as it very likely was a choice that had nothing to do with roles. I, for example, would have very likely corrupted Stink or Jaime if I was Padan, even before knowing Stink was a Thief-Taker and Jaimee a Ta'veren. That being said, since we know Hael was successfully redirected to Rubiks, we could lynch the latter player instead. If it turns out he was Corrupted that just about proves that Aonar is Padan Fain. The only reason I suggested the opposite first, however, is because I'd rather kill Padan first just in case he has a third Corruption in store.
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How do you feel about lynching Aonar? Also, how are the votes I've made in the past indicative of me being a villager? Unless you mean me not voting, since I think so far the only player I actually pushed to lynch until now was Elbereth, who turned out to be a Wolfsister, which in my opinion is more suspicious than not. Plus I defended Sart, albeit indirectly, which could very well suggest I was a Darkfriend trying to get votes off of him without interfering directly by inciting a tie. Can you explain the vote on Meta for me? Unless I missed something, he can't be Fain or the last Darkfriend either.
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Will this work? I'll be very happy if it does. Name Role(claim) Proof Darkfriend? Padan? Aman Aiel-Blooded GM PM No No Sheep Whitecloak Scanned by Viewer No No Winter Unknown Not Online No (unless there are 5 Darkfriends) No Jaimee Ta’veren Redirected Bugsy No (unless there are 5 Darkriends) No (unless corrupted by Bugsy) Joe Ta’veren Redirected Hael No (unless there are 5 Darkfriends) No (unless corrupted by Hael) Rubiks Aiel-Blooded Survived Fireball Maybe No Elodin Dreamwalker Multiple Wolf Attempts Maybe No Meta “Dreamwalker” Detained No No Stink “Thief-Taker” None that I’m aware of Maybe Maybe Bugsy Unknown None that I’m aware of Maybe Maybe Mailliw Unknown None that I’m aware of Maybe Maybe Haelaonar Unknown None that I’m aware of Maybe Maybe Lopen “Aiel-Blooded” None Unlikely Maybe She's confirmed because both a Darkfriend and Corruption occurred last night and she was never online to send in an order. If Stink's Corrupted all that means is he'd have to be honest to avoid suspicion, or lie and say I'm evil which after my death would prove he's evil, so that isn't really an error. If you still think I'm Fain though, all it takes is a lynch to confirm I'm not, and I'm okay with doing that but like I said, unless people have a solid reason to suspect me other than unaccounted for actions, I'd rather we lynch another player with things that suggest they're evil on top of it.
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Well, I highly recommend us lynching Hael. If he's not Fain then feel free to come at me with a Wolfbrother or the lynch the next day. That being said, technically Hael is no longer in the game, and the suspect is now Aonar. @Aonar Faileas, do you have anything helpful to contribute? Ah, no. I see where I was confused, now. I'm not sure why but my mind completely disregarded anything regarding Thief-Talking in favor of finding Fain. That's my bad. It wasn't an intentional misinterpretation, I assure you. I'm still suspicious of you because as of right now I have absolutely no reason to trust you (no idea what role you have, if any) but that paragraph is pretty much rendered null, as I was analyzing you from the perspective that Haelaonar is Fain and you were trying to keep him from being lynched (since earlier I saw something that said, I think from you as well, where only Haelaonar, Winter and I were possible Fain's, and I know for a fact I'm not and Winter is proven without a doubt. I think that's why I was confused). Anyway, I think I have a pretty solid plan. If we lynch Haelaonar and have Stink Thief-Take me we should be good. If it turns out Haelaonar is Fain then that would mean Rubicks is Corrupted, so we'd have to kill him anyway, regardless if he's the last Darkfriend or not. Stink will then prove I'm not Fain or a Darkfriend because he'd learn I made no action last night, allowing me to keep my remaining life while also removing any reason for people to suspect me. If it turns out that Hael is not Fain then that means someone lied about their role (though it wouldn't be me because Stink would be able to vouch for me) and we can begin looking at the players who have no solid confirmations so far.
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It proves that Hael isn't a Darkfriend, yes, but not that he's not Fain (which is the train of thought I was following; I never suggested Hael for Darkfriend). And if he is Fain, then lynching him would prove that Rubiks is Corrupted. Two birds with one stone. Am I wrong here?
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There's so much wrong with this statement, in my opinion. It doesn't only help the evils because at this point in time you yourself could be evil. Knowing that Seonid was a Ta'veren, do we have an idea what his actions have been this game? I'm currently wondering if he attempted to redirect Meta's action N1 and, having learned that he had no action to redirect, someone on his team came up with a plan for a teammate to use that information to claim Thief-Taker. Apart from that event (you "following" Meta) I am unaware of any other information you've gained via your ability. And the fact that "the people you've tracked made no obvious evil actions" seems more to me like a typical excuse a Mafia makes when they're out of valid lies and want to stall. Hence why I asked people if they had any definitive proof that he is what he says he is. Well, I'm Aiel-Blooded. The only person I honestly told my role to was Stink, though he doesn't seem to believe it. If that was just an act and he actually did, that would also support the above theory of him being evil, since until this cycle not a single Aiel-Blooded (claimed or otherwise) has been attacked. Other than Stink I have been trying pretty hard to bait the Darkfriends into attacking me (Channeller and White Cloak claims), and that's the only real reason I can think of for why they haven't bothered with me, yet. That, on top of the fact that Rae and Stink have often joked that the greatest indicator for my alignment is whether or not I have survived a few cycles or been killed by eliminators immediately. I would NOT be surprised if Stink suggested letting me live long enough for people to start questioning that, and thus mislead the village into killing another one of their own (or in my case, removing my extra life so that I'm ripe for removal). Just to emphasize my point earlier about typical Mafia excuses. A bit convenient that you followed the player who the Darkfriend's just kill, isn't it? Bugsy, I am willing to give you another cycle (not that it's my decision since I've had little to no sway this game). For everyone, if you think it's necessary to test me first, feel free. I am perfectly okay with being lynched since I will survive it, I just ask that Sheep also detain me to prove I'm not a Darkfriend too. It puts them in a precarious position because they have to either A: Use a kill and prove my innocence, B: Waste a night turn to mislead people into thinking I'm the last Darkfriend. Either way, it's a win-win for the village, in my opinion, as it stalls the game in our favor. That being said, I would rather we not waste my extra life and go for a more valid target such as Hael. Unlike me, who I'm pretty sure every player (up until this cycle) has said they believe is a villager, Hael has taken no solid stances on anything and been consistently read as neutral all game. In my mind that makes him a much better target for this lynch between him, Winter (who is confirmed innocent as she was never online to send in the orders) and me. Based off of these posts and the knowledge of my innocence, I am, however, convinced one of you three is Corrupted, if not two of you. Bugsy for his "assuming Lopen is correct" (I find that eliminators tend to go along with anything that might get a villager lynched without double checking the information, whereas a villager will more likely go over everything themselves to make sure there's no holes in the logic presented), and the fact that he proposes any Thief-Takers target either me (who he is trying to kill) or Winter (who could not have made any action last night). I just find it funny how he doesn't mention Hael, the other Fain suspect, but does bring up two players that I know for a fact are villagers. Both points apply to Joe, and the first to Mailliw. I also think Lopen is a tentative Corrupted, due to him now casting suspicion on me, thoughI could see him switching his perspective after it being proven I was not a Whitecloak like I claimed either way. Expect me to what? I'll assume you mean suspect, which sadly there's nothing I can provide that I haven't already. Is this post an adequate defense? Or are there any questions you (or anyone else) would like me to answer, in particular?
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Not only is it unlikely that I'd send in the kill, it's downright impossible same applies for me Corrupting someone. Suspect for what, exactly? And please, articulate why. Saying I'm your top suspect without any supporting data is extremely unhelpful, in my opinion. I would consider voting for Winter since she is one of four player's whose role we don't know, but as pointed out by Lopen she was neither online to put in the Darkfriend or Corruption order, both of which occurred, therefore she's as cleared as anyone else is right now. The reason I claimed to Lopen that I was the Whitecloak is because that cycle Conquestor told me in the PM that he detained him N1, but he never claimed that he was detained when the thread was discussing what happened to the Darkfriend kill, so I thought maybe it's because he put in the order but didn't want to get caught. After he asked Gamma about it he was told because he didn't put an order in Gamma forgot. I later figured that it's possible he was attacked N1, hence the lack of a Darkfriend kill. I kept the lie up because I didn't want to put Conq's life at risk, either to a Darkfriend kill or Corruption. I would have spoken up for him and voted to ensure he wasn't lynched but unfortunately this week was my Detachment's Semi Annual Inspection, so I had no time to get online. That being said, I'm going to vote for Bugsy. Jaimee, who did you redirect his ability too, and Bugsy, what ability did you use? Bugsy's target, can you confirm it? As far as I know, Mailliw and Hael are the only possible Fain's other than Bugsy. One of these three is the Wolfbrother, for sure. As for the other I can't tell at this point. I am okay with being lynched this cycle, but if you guys decide to go down that route, Sheep, please detain me too, and do so from every cycle here on out. Lynching me will prove I'm Aiel-Blooded (and therefore not Fain), and keeping me detained will both protect me from attacks and keeping me from being Corrupted while ensuring everyone that I am not the last Darkfriend making kills. I suppose I could be Corrupted by now, but there's absolutely no proof to suggest that and at this point I don't think we can afford another mislynch, especially not on me. Does anyone have definite proof that Stink is a Thief-Taker? Because if not, I have a theory regarding him I'd like people to comment on. Otherwise I won't bother typing it up.
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Well, I'm back (sort of; my activity won't be returning to normal anytime soon, due to that cursed thing called life), and it appears that I've missed a lot. Sorry Elbereth for being wrong about you and nearly getting you lynched. But I'll go ahead and look at the bright side of us losing you and say that now knowing your alignment I'm able to narrow down even more players to Padan, and can take solace knowing that there's a significantly smaller chance of there being a Corrupted Wolfsibling. So, assuming that some players, like Stink, haven't been lying from the get go, there are only 6 players currently living that could be Padan. Among those who I have not yet confirmed is Hellscythe, whom has not posted since very early on in N2. Right now I'm wonderig if the real reason we haven't had any corruptions recently is due to inactivity. I don't have the time right now to journey down Analysis Avenue, but if someone would be so kind to look into him, I would appreciate it. Other tentative Padan's include Winter, Bugsy, Araris, Rubiks and Jaime.
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Two additional votes in thirty minutes? Way to make a guy feel uncomfortable about his decision. What I posted was a theory. Nothing about is certain. Braize, most of it was pure conjecture. For Taln's sake; Stink, why have you been telling people Elb is evil? And for that matter, who? Do you have an actual reason to suspect her? Or was that your trusty RNG again? And Winter, if you've got your own suspicions, even if they're flimsy, you should pursue them. Have you tried articulating the reasons why you're suspicious of Meta? Like, beyond all this "he just feels off" nonsense people keep spouting? I get that, I have bad feelings about good players too, BUT unless Meta and Stink are a Padan/Fain Combo, then Meta is very likely a villager. That's a fair point. It's not how I would do things (unless I had gained a ton of attention early on, as I did in the last Long Game), but if that's how you'd go about it then... well, fair enough. That being said, telling me what you "would do" doesn't really convince me of anything. I feel like this is the exact argument you used against me in LG21, which was as valid then for me as it is for you now. You could very easily just be saying this to maneuver yourself out of harm's way; though I guess you've already adressed that many times, so I won't beat that horse any more dead than it already is. As a disclaimer though, these statement apply to quite a lot of your response, so I'll only quote what I feel needs to be commented on from here on out. The currently living Whitecloak detained a player on N1 other than Elodin. Whether or not they want to reveal that to the thread is fine, as in doing so he would be implicating something he might not want to be common knowledge, but I can assure you that unless there is another Whitecloak (which I severely doubt), Gunshy was the one who targeted Elodin. Nyali redirected Bard but failed because he made no action the same night Padan corrupted someone. Therefore he could not be Padan. For the most part Jaimee was chosen because she on the half of the player list that consisted of players whom I had not confirmed yet, and I figured there was a good chance of her being either Corrupted soon (if she hadn't been already) or Padan herself, which, if Padan follows the strategy you would go along with, means I very well might have been right. Those were just some hypotheticals I presented to emphasize my point, possible explanations for why you would do what you did, each more unlikely than the last. The main point in your favor is, if you were Padan and did try to convert Jaimee, or had already converted her, I think you'd be smart enough not to draw a connection between you two. But then again, you might be smart for doing just that, but that's not ideal territory to tread on, so I'll just go with likelihoods here. On that note, I would like to hear from every living player what you think about this situation. Huh. I just noticed a contradiction. Thing is, Jaimee is new, isn't she? Really the only brand new player that hasn't accrued any suspicion so far. She's a pretty safe choice, if you ask me, especially when you have players like me running around who always give new players leeway. And I'm pretty sure plenty of players know you well enough to be able to narrow down who those people you'd want to be evil with and, if you were found out, that would effectively doom you, so you'd have to do something unexpected. We discussed something very similar to our PM, only how the fact that I wasn't converted could implicate some players and clear some others, so I know you haven't missed that train of thought. That's the thing, though. That's what people expect eliminators to do, so a good Fain would do the exact opposite to make them appear, without a doubt, that their not Fain. Why would Fain should himself in the foot by preaching PM safety? To gain player's trust (which you did for the vast majority). Besides, according to your strategy, you would convert as many people as fast as possible regardless of role, and in particular players you'd want to work with. So why would you want roles? As for the secret roles bit, I feel that was an attempt to cause chaos rather than something really genuine. It can appear on the surface as genuine, kinda like bringing up Day One Lynches, but in truth does more harm than good. I just feel like I'm tunneling because while there is information capable of being interpreted against you, I feel like I've had my eye on you from the start, and that's the only reason why I'm as suspicious of you as I am right now. The fact that I'm still convinced your Fain or Corrupted in spite of several points in your favor, to me, makes me concerned that I'm chasing the wrong lead.
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Quick Fix Game 16: The Shades of Threnody
Amanuensis replied to RippleGylf's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I probably shouldn't join this, since things are about to get super busy for me starting Monday, buttt... storm it. I don't want to miss out on a Threnody game, considering how rare they are. My character's name will be Innocent. -
Is it to far-fetched a theory? No. But I know for a fact Conquestor is not Padan. I was hoping to clear more players last night, but it appears my gambit either worked too well or not at all. Personally if I were Padan I would have saved my Corruptions until I knew for certain that a particular player would bring role value to my team. Since a few critical players I'm aware of / know other people are aware of were not converted last night, that suggests that Fain and his first Corrupted are not in the know; that is if you are truly not Padan, jaimee, or if you were not the target of conversion. On that subject, Elbereth. Why am I voting for you? I promise it's not because I'm tunneling, though I could very well be wrong right now, but hear me out real quick. Last night we were discussing Padan Fain and likely targets for conversion. When I brought up Joe and the reason why I thought he would very likely be the target of conversion, you kinda downplayed how great his role would be for an eliminator faction (can't quote you exactly but you said something along the lines of "Well I guess I could see his power being useful and he is kinda confirmed innocent thanks to Nyali"). I emphasized, then, how powerful redirects can be, and you said you sorta agreed based of what you saw in LG20 (you used I suppose and I guess at least five times total during this conversation and no other, which I suppose could be just a natural habit, but to me it feels more like you reacting to someone figuring out your plan before you could execute it). So then the next thing you ask is if I plan on saying in thread that Joe is a very likely target for conversion to steer Padan towards someone else or just let it happen then lynch him, to which I told you that there is a second Whitecloak targeting him to make sure he remains village. You seemed somewhat distraught by me revealing that, given you sarcastically used a synonym to the word "Terrific" and made slanty eyes, which I don't really get from a villager perspective because why would we not want a role that is basically confirmed good after Gunshy's death to be on our side? Additionally you also said it was a good plan, when honestly it's not because A: Detaining a player prevents them from using their role, and B: It only delays Fain's conversions, not makes him lose a charge, so while it does buy us some time it's not as useful as say, using Joe's power to confirm another player as innocent, just as Nyali did with Bard. Anyway, the thing is this was all a lie the throw you off just in case I was right about you. The actual target was Jaimee, whom I had told Lopen long before turnover. I find it either ironic or preordained that you voted her for Mayor before she revealed that she was detained. There's a lot of ways to look at this, but the way I see it is, for the most part, people have repeatedly stated they trust you and that they value your input on this game, and you saying you trust her for mostly gut might start swaying people to feel the same. But why do you trust her exactly? Is it because you're Padan Fain and you converted her N1? Is it because she's Padan Fain and she converted you N1? Is it because you're Padan and planned on converting her, maybe even attempted to last night, but didn't now why your action failed and assumed that since she already posted without mentioning detainment that she was a Channeler who used Mask of Mirrors on herself to make her untargetable, therefore proving her a role that you would want on your team? Or are you Padan just trying to lay false leads later on for us to follow, in case you're ever caught? These are all possibilities, and as I said before I could be completely wrong, but another thing that interests me is how earlier on (before her reveal) you tried to push the conversation away from the Detainment target being Padan by saying there are way too many possibilities. Does that seem fishy to anyone else, or am I just crazy? And I still stand by my point in the beginning of the game that Elbereth was mentioning PM safety, role claiming, and secret roles wayyy too much, which was one of the reason's you caught my interest as a potential Padan Fain from the start. The only point in your favor is that apparently Wilson was certain you weren't Padan, according to Lopen. I immediately assumed you two were a Warder/Channeler pair, which he denied, but now that we know Wilson was a Warder that's the only explanation I have. If that's the case you're doomed to die anyway, Padan won't convert you and the Darkfriends are already very far behind, so killing a player guaranteed to die won't help them, so if that's what you are then please tell us now. Otherwise, you really are my best guess at Padan right now, since you're one of ten players left I have not confirmed and are the most connected among them.
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Ah, yeah, I expected as much :[ but a boy could hope.
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What I mean to ask would it say something like "3 people scrawled a Dragon's Fang on Nikel Fain's door" or would the number of villagers that voted never be announced?
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Oh, okay, good. One fireball to the face for Mailliw, coming right up.
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Opposed? Or surprised?
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GAMMAAAAAAAAA Edit: For clarifications sake, I mean numbers, not names.
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Well the name Hael comes from the Australian spelling of the word hail in "Hail Hydra," and Hellscythe is.. well.. a scythe from Hell. Neither of those things seem particular pleasant for an innocent village such as Drell's Crossing. I also wouldn't be opposed to Mailliw. Though it's possible he's Padan (he's lower down on my list of candidates) I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first player corrupted.
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I'm not, but if I WERE, I'd probs kill Hael or Hellscythe.
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Anyone else curious to see what Orlok's Channeler is going to use tonight? If I were them I would definitely fireball someone... *cough*
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The thing is, in order for a village to truly thrive, there's got to be some level of trust. Maybe not absolute, but if people don't take risks and try to formulate plans together, our job is a lot more difficult. Everyone just ends up pursuing their own suspicions, and without the opportunity to fit all the puzzle pieces together a lot of clues can be missed. So while I'm not saying you should go telling anyone and everyone what you are, it does help.
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SUPER IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR GAMMA, do votes on who gets a Dragon's Fang show up in the write-up? Or is it just announced who got it?
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7 hours and 52 minutes, if my memory serves me right (which it seldom does).
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Ah, so he knows who they are, then? Why haven't I been brought into the loop yet. True. I've claimed to Stink in two games where I was evil. One worked out to my advantage, the second... not so much.
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Man, that was fast. Almost as if I someone told you in a doc to post so a vigilante doesn't kill you
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Do we know if both Wolfbrothers will be trying to kill Elodin? Or is the one who killed Orlok going for him and the one who killed DC going for phattemer?
