Amanuensis
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Everything posted by Amanuensis
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(5 + 1?) Crimsn Chanarach: Aranduensis, Adavantos, Cadmium Compounder, xinoehp512, Kidpen, (2) Cadmium Compounder: NotASteelClone, |247|-|, (2) Seventh Saint: Seventh Saint, Sapphire Elephant, (2) Aranduensis: Metabardnition, Mailliw772, (2) alVoidus: Araris Valerian, tiny wilson, (1) NotASteelClone: I think I am here., (1) xinoehp512: Crimsn Chanarach, (1) Sapphire Elephant: Furamirionind,
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You can very clearly see Elandera's vote wasn't a factor in my "attack" in the slightest, and was even accompanied by me saying I'd rather lynch an inactive.
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Because he could just straight up be lying about having an extra life? If we strip him of it, we know. If he dies it's because he's a Spammer who lied. It's a win win. Furthermore trusting Rand is the matter of him claiming a role to me that cannot be replicated by Spammer shenanigans. He is now trying to prove that role, so it makes 0 sense to kill him before he has the chance.
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Oh, nvm tiny. I get it. Cool.
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Yeah. I thought Crimsn was an Eliminator because he voted on Temptation over a roleless. But this was before CadCom himself claimed to have attacked him. As soon as a "one vs one" scenario forms, it's best to resolve it quickly. CadCom makes 0 sense as a Spammer because once he was caught in his lie he would get lynched. Thus I'm taking their side. EDIT: @tiny wilson o3 was on my mind as well so I'll probably take that advice. T is a player I'm interested in, but what's the piece of info regarding T exactly?
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It's not Crimsn related. No one is soft-cleared really, I need a lot more information on the Spammer's team composition before it can really be effective. But at least now 3 others (all more likely Eliminators based on my interactions with them) are aware. So even if I die tonight, that info isn't lost. It's unlikely all 4 of us get deleted any time soon.
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Rand's method absolutely guarantees he has an Eliminator role. All Devotary's method proves is that they're not a very specific Spammer role. EDIT: @Sapphire Elephant At this point the Spammers will probably delete me anyway, so might as well just say it. Basically tells me if they put in an action or not. This player did not.
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Yeah. I'm thinking if they were a Spammer, the result would be different, unless the Spammers have more roleless.
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I came up with it about an hour ago, since I was thinking about reaching out to a different player I had a PM with. Basically I have an ability that lets me check for a very specific piece of information, and Mailliw's asking who it was. As for the other people I claimed to: For the CC, check for d. For the BWL, check for o2. I didn't learn anything from the attempt.
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I can, yeah. Elandera @May I suggest The Only Joe Xinoehp512 Furamirionind Metabardnition Crimsn Chanarach Aranduensis NotASteelClone I think I am here. Seventh Saint Cadmium Compounder Mailliw772 Snipexe alVoidus |257|-| Araris Valerian High Priest of Lord Tekiel Kidpen tiny wilson Sapphire Elephant Walin Take the first 21 letters of the first message I sent you (should be a complete four word string). For letters that repeat, put a number after the second+ (first t = t, second is t2, third is t3, etc). Then match the letter I'm about to send to the list above. e2
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Nothing of use, sadly.
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Oof. I completely forgot to factor in bystander with unknown role interference. But considering that Crimsn was one of the most suspicious votes before Temptation died, it doesn't make much sense for a third party to protect him.
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I don't doubt you're not Bierst. A target of Vodiyehi is a lot more likely. Which more than likely makes you a role worth protecting, like Babaji.
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(3) Crimsn Chanarach: Cadmium Compounder, Aranduensis, Adavantos, Cadmium Compounder, (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint, I think I am here., (1) Furamirionind: Sapphire Elephant, NotASteelClone, (1) Seventh Saint: NotASteelClone, Seventh Saint, (2) Aranduensis: Elandera, Metabardnition, (1) Araris Valerian: High Priest of Lord Tekiel, (1) alVoidus: Araris Valerian, (2) Cadmium Compounder: Kidpen, NotASteelClone, (0) |247|-|: Aranduensis, (1) Xinoehp512: Crimsn Chanarach, Or most importantly. (3 + 1?) Crimsn Chanarach: Aranduensis, Adavantos, Cadmium Compounder, (2) Aranduensis: Elandera, Metabardnition, (2) Cadmium Compounder: Kidpen, NotASteelClone,
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Arand says he has a way to prove he's village, since the Spammers have no manipulation roles. This of course makes him an ideal convert, however, so we're going to need to keep tabs on him if the Spammers don't eventually delete him. As for the CadCom vs Crimsn situation... CadCom had a one time kill and used it on Crimsn, but it didn't work. That means Crimsn has to be a village role with a defense of some kind (note that he did NOT claim that in response and instead called into question CadCom's one-time kill order), or he is Beirst (immune to everything but lynch), or protected by the other Spammer role (Vodiyehi). From my perspective there's no way CadCom would lie about this so early if he were a Spammer. As soon as Crimsn was killed we would just turn on him. Therefore the most logical explanation is that Crimsn Chanarach is a Spammer. Trying to prolong his life by inviting vote manipulation seems like a basic ploy to have people back off.
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Brilliant. I will confirm that Arand claimed a role name that makes perfect sense with this ability in mind. @Elandera and @Metabardnition are you two willing to give Arand a cycle to prove this?
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So here are my thoughts on just a few players. The ones I don't mention I haven't thought about in much length, either because they haven't had a strong presence so far or because I can't remember a significant thing about them. Metabardnition: His attempts at solving feel really genuine to me. Leaning Eliminator. Crimsn Chanarach: As Metabardnition pointed out in a huge post, he pushed the vote in Roadwalker's favor over Guest. I think Roadwalker could have redeemed themself if they became active, so I assume the Spambots would too. Leaning Eliminator. Cadmium Compounder: I personally feel like his reasoning for voting Crimsn is too convoluted to be a Spammer plot. Leaning Eliminator. Aranduensis: Leaning eliminator (yea, the good kind), but like I said in my previous post, this will change SIGNIFICANTLY if another player informs the thread that they told Aranduensis their role before our own exchange. Seventh Saint: Like Arand, SS is kind of up in the air. Something I learned in PMs makes me think he is probably village, but I do find it concerning that he has an extra life, like that one Spammer role. I would like to explore this read in the future. Furamirionind: Votes don't look great, but having a similar mental track is a point in his favor. I feel this could go either way. For now I'm willing to defer to the people who he has claimed his role too. I really wish I was in the know, though. NotASteelClone: Similarly to Fura, votes don't look great, and he bought into that whole "maybe Roadwalker's role prevents him from posting" thing, which IMO was a very silly proposition and serves as a good excuse to prolong the death of Temptation. At this point I think I'd prefer to lynch one of the slots I'm clueless about to narrow things down. Someone like @May I suggest The Only Joe, @xinoehp512, @|247|-|, @Snipexe, or even @Araris Valerian. This, of course, can be changed with any significant bumps in activity. (hint hint)
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As it stands, this is what I've got: (1) Crimsn Chanarach: Cadmium Compounder, (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint, I think I am here., (1) Furamirionind: Sapphire Elephant, NotASteelClone, (1) Seventh Saint: NotASteelClone, Seventh Saint, (2) Aranduensis: Elandera, Metabardnition, (1) Araris Valerian: High Priest of Lord Tekiel, (1) alVoidus: Araris Valerian, (1) Cadmium Compounder: Kidpen, I'm personally apprehensive towards lynching Aranduensis, and not just because I'm his #1 fan and president of his fan club. Without saying any role names, did anyone else contact him in PM and share your role with him? If you did, I would greatly appreciate a timestamp of when that exchange happened. If no one exchanged roles with him before me then I'm confident I can guarantee he's village. I'll admit, something I learned in PMs made me trust Seventh, but now that he's claimed he has an extra life, I don't know what to think. Strategically it probably makes the most sense to strip him of his extra life, but ugh. I hate targeting people for their roles alone. I think they're probably okay? Fura is... hm. Last turn we were on the same page a lot, which makes me think he could be a villager going through the same thought progression as me? But then again it was just a vote count and correcting Alv. Nothing really indicative of alignment. I have mixed feelings about Steel? Based on D1 votes alone I doubt there's a way I can resolve my opinion of his slot until he's dead. Sorry, Steel. Need more content from @Araris Valerian for sure. Can you explain your issue with Alv more in depth? No real opinion on @Crimsn Chanarach, @Cadmium Compounder, or @Kidpen, if I'm honest. Would love to see more from you three as well as @I think I am here. In fact everyone should post another ten or twenty times. Not trolling, genuine effort. I'd appreciate that a lot On that note I'm still catching up on the last page or so. Will post again or edit this when I'm done, probably.
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@tiny wilson, I just realized you mentioned learning about the Disciple role in our PM. Do you know anyone else who Jon told? If so, that might be a good lead.
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I too am chiming in to apologize for my inactivity today. I'm working on the final draft for the next chapter of a fanfic I'm writing and it's supposed to go up in a few hours. Until then, it's my priority. Sorry
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Honestly if the GM's can't add you in because of conflicts with game balance, I would happily give you my slot. I'd rather someone else have fun over me if it means them missing out otherwise. @xxGaea @A Joe in the Bush
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Ah, hah, sorry. That was a fault of me not reading the whole post. No idea how I skimmed over the rest. My bad
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It's the context of your vote, explained here, that confuses me. Considering the only thing Wilson said regarding Guest was that he was his best guess, I don't understand why you would be inclined to agree with him. There's nothing to agree with there.
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Okay so, I'm going to do some vote-by-vote analysis to see if there's anything more we can learn. For conveniences sake, I'll start with the last vote tally I wrote up. First change that happens is Arand removes his vote from Elandera, which doesn't really change anything. Next change is that wilson joins High Priest's vote on Guest, putting them in second place. Then, in very quick succession, Steel follows wilson's example and Gammalv creates a tie while praying to the Gods of Luck and Chance as if he was Alv himself. Of the three votes, Gammalv's looks the cleanest. I don't really get wilson's, if I'm honest, since it has no real explanation. And what's even weirder is Steel's vote! He specifically says he's "inclined to agree with Tiny" when literally the only thing wilson said was "My best guess is Guest". If there were any Spammers trying to get some cred from Guest's lynch, my bets would be there. Anyway, next Sapphire switches their vote to Guest, breaking the tie in favor of the Spammer. In response, Gammalv brings the tie back by switching his vote as well. Now this is where things get a little chaotic. Sapphire returns their vote to Roadwalker and Crimsn joins the vote against Roadwalker as well, who says he's getting involved just to prevent any more back-and-forth voting. While I might consider doing the same thing if I were a villager, I want to note that this could be Crimsn attempting to save his teammate, Guest. In response, Gammalv also switches his vote back to Guest, bringing it to 5 v 4. And if not for Sapphire's last minute retraction from Roadwalker, the Spammers might have gotten away with it, too! Instead things end up as a tie in the end... Except... what's this? Two votes have changed! ITIAH's vote was removed from Roadwalker, and Jondesu's vote was moved from A Joe In the Bush to Guest! Surely the Spammers didn't see this coming. But does that really mean they could have been involved? Personally, I'm not so sure Crimsn would go out of the way to save a roleless teammate. The suspicion on Guest might have been de-fusible, but if it meant dragging another player down along with him later... I don't really believe that would be worth it. Especially since they probably wouldn't be roleless too. So what do I think? I think Crimsn, Steel, and to a lesser extent, wilson, all should be looked at with a bit of scrutiny going forward. I think Sapphire is undeniably village (which is sad since that's confirmed by game mechanics already), and I think Gammalv is most certainly a villager too. High Priest can go either way depending on if it was distancing or not, but I really don't think we have enough on High Priest to say either way.
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Wow! Great job for those of you who voted for Guest. I don't remember anything off the top of my head about them so I'll go read all of their posts and posts directed at them to see if I can glean any meaningful analysis. Kinda feel bad I didn't participate at all but was a bit busy last night EDIT: Only 6 posts, and the first 3 were entirely unrelated to the game Oh yeah. Pretty weak vote on Rae, which means there's like a 70% chance of her not being a Spammer too (random calculation to represent my feelings on the matter). The fact that she immediately called it out as Bandwagoning before he decided to back off in the last two posts could mean it's a distancing attempt, but... eh. I think it's fine if we trust her for now. For Guests' following two posts:
