Paranoid King

Well, he did send the PM an hour ago and hasn't been on since then. Your vote probably wasn't around at the time.

Hmm. Just got a PM from Orlok telling me I was tunneling on him. @Seonid, did you get one too?

Wrote a post and then my power went out. Rrgh. I'm hoping the seer is choosing people from my list that I considered, then discarded. If they are, even subconsciously, that makes my job a lot easier. So of the people I looked at on my list, I didn't include Darian, Steeldancer, Striker, Arraenae, or Orlok This is Darian's first game. He has 4 posts, total. I wasn't gonna lynch him just to find out if other people are evil. Steeldancer is dead Striker was my other option. He's pretty inactive. His excuse is that band is taking up a lot of his time. He has been posting suspicions though, so I feel pretty good about him. Arraenae's been under a lot of suspicion. However, she has also been active, and has been putting a lot of effort into the game. I'd rather lynch someone inactive who can give us info. Orlok posted a lot on the first day, trying to encourage discussion. Day 2 he was taking care of a friend IRL. He also protests being the obvious convert. He thinks steeldancer was misguided, but not evil. D3 he says he's burnt out from the QF and has El keeping him company. He also says that in previous games, he was active when he was evil. He votes on Sart for thinking he'd change his playstyle upon becoming evil. That is a pretty drastic shift from D1 on, and I'm not denying that real life things are happening to take away your attention. But you pop up within an hour or two if someone mentions you, while staying inactive otherwise. That implies someone who thinks a lot about the game, but isn't worried about providing analysis. You're quick to vote on Sart for thinking your playstyle might change, but allow Steeldancer to pass for thinking you're an obvious convert. You wouldn't want to vote on someone for something important because that would draw attention to that discussion. You are busy with RL things, so changing your playstyle isn't the problem. You don't mind voting on Sart for that. You don't want to draw attention to being an obvious convert though, so you protest people voting on Steeldancer, saying it was an honest mistake. If you are innocent, voting on you does free up some time for you to deal with RL issues, and you have signed up for the MR, so I don't feel guilty about voting for you. My main problem with your inactivity is how you're inactive about things not pertaining to you, but are quite active when someone votes on you. Being changed from a villager to an elim does give you a lot of new info, and if you're falling behind anyways, it's a lot to keep track of. If someone votes for you though, you know all about yourself, so you can easily rebuff them. I don't think that in all the previous games you cited you were dealing with a lot of RL things. Overall, you might be falling behind in this game, but you're signed up for the MR, so if we lynch you, you get a bit more free time. If you're evil, we get more info. If you're good, you were relatively inactive. It just seems like a good choice.

I've been taking some tests recently and really don't feel like doing much analysis, but I'm popping in anyways so I don't fall too far behind. Some of Wilson's recent posts sound elim-y, specifically the one where she pointed out all the times she was village. In context though, her response is pretty justified. She's not pointing out that she's usually village, she's saying that Jon doesn't have a lot of data to support his accusations. Hmm. This doesn't add up. "AMM" stands for American Metal Market. Could this be a code? After all, it's pretty difficult to confuse the 'm' and 'w' keys, given that they're on opposite sides of the keyboard! Anyways, conspiracy theories aside, it looks like you're poking Rae to get a response from her. In my experience, this is usually done because you're suspicious of that person. AKA you have a guess that they might be an eliminator. I honestly don't mind a good healthy vote every so often, but it looks like your intent is to "set and forget", which doesn't give people a lot of analysis to use for or against you. So, @Arinian, I'm just poking you find 3 people you think have a chance of being an eliminator. Doesn't have to be strong guesses. It just gives a bit of perspective about your thoughts. I feel for you, Doc. Just make sure you ask for a summary of what's happened when you come back. Otherwise you'll have to go through pages of analysis and that makes it kinda hard to get back into the game. @Darkness_, your vote on shqueeves is based on that he's inactive on a night with no kill. But I'd think that, were he evil, he'd have enough converted allies to make the kill for him. Especially if they noticed that he was inactive that cycle. I think it's more likely that the kill was blocked somehow. Anyways, my vote'll go on @Orlok. (Callout function's acting up again.) For all his complaints about not going inactive if he were to be turned into an eliminator, I think he'd go inactive if he were turned into an eliminator. And plus, it'd be interesting to see if he was turned. Might help me see if the seer based his conversions off of the data I provided C1. If he was turned, I can start looking for other active people I ruled out of my list. Edit: @Orlok Tsubodai. There we go.

You don't sound too sure about this. Care to explain your reasoning?

Validated. That was mostly a gut read, though. PK responds to Araris and Sony. ... N2, PK asks about the vote tally, which is NAI. It does show I'm paying attention, though. Overall, I think PK is slightly leaning elim, probably Seer, since his suspicious actions were D1. Between him and Mint, I'm a little more suspicious of Mint (second vote on Aman), but if Mint isn't the Seer I think there's a decent chance that it's PK. Objection! I refute this claim, on the bounds that As I was one of the few people who voted, I'm in the minority. As an elim, I would try to stay as far from minorities as possible. I'm posting a lot. I tend to stay inactive in my elim games and experiment in my village games. I'm pretty sure you'll complain about me knowing about this and changing my playstyle, so you could ignore this one. I'm posting clear lists of my suspicions. Were I the seer, I would be shooting myself in the foot by explaining my thought processes - And I don't have the time or motivation to make two completely separate lists, one for my village mask, and one for my evil plans. And to quote you in a previous post: "I know Wyrm puts in effort to pick elims that he thinks probably won't go inactive." Ah ha ha. Yeah. This is a bit metagamey, but I'm a terrible choice, if that's what Wyrm were aiming for. I tend to go inactive fairly often, and especially would this game, since midterms are coming up. Anyways, I'll move on to the next person on my list. Lemonelion. Straw voting on Steeldancer would make me believe that Straw was village, not elim. Voting on someone you were going to kill would connect you for no reason.

I voted on Jondesu, right? I have no idea whether this is a vote manipulation or just the Jons getting confused @Wyrmhero, could I get a clarification on that?

To clarify, of the people who posted an opinion on whether or not there should be a vote, 11 of them voted for a no vote. Maybe I missed someone, but from what I saw, only 16 people shared their opinion on the vote, which means it's 11/16. Which is over half, using my definition Well, it's not specifically whether they voted or not. It's what their opinion was on the vote. I may be looking at this wrong, but in my mind, experienced eliminators would try to contribute to the discussion, so they don't get singled out. If they're inexperienced and trying to lay low, I'd agree with you, but assuming an eliminator who knows what they're doing, I'd recommend those in my list.

I might be basing it on my own experience, but I have a lot more fun when I'm a villager. When I'm an elim, I tend to do things for the team, and I'm a lot more focused on winning. When I'm a villager, I basically do whatever I want. That's the impression I'm getting from Steeldancer ...Wow. Okay. I hope that game wasn't an LG. I'll accept your point. But truth be told, I also talked to Orlok about a few things in a PM. Based on his responses and what happened over the night turn, I'm 99% sure he's not the seer.

Alright, I'm back. Heh. That's funny. I don't mind if you PM everybody, as long as you include me. I just don't want to be lonely . Straw. Anyways, the only thing I can think of to root out the seer from D1 is people's lynch policy. As an elim, I've always found it easier to say a villager is innocent than that one's guilty. I'll generalize this and say the seer would try to advocate someone not dying. This would be smart from the seer's perspective because the seer would look more compassionate and mindful of the village. There are enough firebrands that someone would die anyways, so the seer's opinion wouldn't matter - the village would still kill someone. And because most people were voting for no lynch, it's easier to blend into the crowd if the seer did so too. So I'm willing to bet that the seer is one of the people who stated that they'd rather not lynch someone C1. So the people who voted for no lynch last cycle are: Aman (dead) Striker Shqueeves Sony (Wants discussion on possible lynch candidates, but no actual lynch) Arraenae Aonar Lemonelion Steeldancer Orlok (Wants discussion, but no vote) Darian (First SE game) Jondesu So I'll be looking at these people for a possible seer. Striker seems to have PM'd Aman and shared roles with him, then pretty much agreed with all of Aman's plans. I doubt a seer would do that, especially if they were planning to convert Aman for info anyways. Shqueeves... doesn't quite seem to understand the point of the D1 lynch. After Orlok explained he wanted discussion through the threat of a lynch, he recommended that Orlok vote on himself. That's. Um. Confusing. He also repeated Aman's offer to trade info. I'm not sure whether or not he contacted Aman beforehand or not. Sony wants a discussion on possible lynch candidates. He doesn't discuss anything for the rest of the day. Rae originally votes for Orlok for RP purposes, then decides it might be better to not try to hit the seer on the first day. Given that she decided this before the rest of the bandwagon did, I don't think it's likely that she's the seer. Aonar points out that he didn't lynch anyone in his first game. Looks like he has a good memory, because I don't think he'd go back and check to see if his first game was conversion game. Lemon RP-votes for no lynch. I'm skeptical of this. Lemon might be trying to be active but not too active, and RP's an easy way to do that. Steeldancer needs to sleep occasionally. He recommends not killing someone if there's no chance to, and promises to RP at some point. He feels like someone who's interested in the game and having fun. I'm inclined to discount him as the seer. Orlok encourages discussion the whole way through, pointing out that we need info, but actually killing someone probably wouldn't work out. His arguments are fairly spirited, and his point of view is something that a seer would be okay with being dissuaded from . That seems like a lot more trouble than the seer would need to go through. Discounting Orlok as the seer. Darian does some fairly hefty RP, then says that he's ill and that it's his first game. Both of which may be true. Even if he is the seer, I'm not going to vote on him for a while. Out of curiosity, @DarianHammersmith, is this your first SE game or your first forum mafia game? Either way, welcome! Jon wants to do some RP, and advocates for a no-vote. Says he doesn't want anyone dead, but doesn't try to tie the vote. Posts 25 minutes before the turn ends, so this is rather odd. So this is my final list of seer candidates, ordered by how suspicious I am of them. Jon Lemon Sony Shqueeves Aonar

'Sup? I'm busy most of the time with school. 6 hours have passed, but I'm still alive. My thoughts? I was pretty sure Aman had an evil plan to stay alive until he'd made 3 converts. Guess not. It might actually be bad for you to have pewter, because every time you die, people will suspect you of being the seer. Last cycle Striker said that if we killed Aman and he claimed pewter, he'd be off suspicion for a while. No, I don't think so. Even if a pewter-holder was attacked (not lynched), the write-up wouldn't show it, and they'd be under suspicion from their attacker, who would try to attack them again. Being a villager pewter-holder might actually be a detriment, because if they're killed, the village will do everything they can to kill them again. I have no idea how to counter this. I'm pretty sure the write-up means the seer converted someone, not that the seer tried to convert someone but had their atium stolen before they could. I'll vote on Straw, because I remember one recent game where straw tried to PM everyone, and it's entirely possible that straw has already PM'd everyone except for me, and nobody's mentioned it yet. (This is a poke-vote, by the way. I haven't had time to analyze last cycle yet. I still have studying to get done.)

Could be. Pandas are expensive! Anyways, I've been thinking it over, and I really dislike Aman's plan to have people reveal to him. Even if he's a villager this cycle, he'd be converted by the seer next cycle, and all that info will be going to the seer. If he's a seer, it's even worse, because his plan to be killed C3 means that people will put off killing him until he's got all his converts out. His plans usually seem better thought-out than this. Either he's already the seer, or he's a villager that's actively trying to deliver info to the seer. Either way, I'm all for lynching Aman this cycle, not C3. Panda's aren't actually that expensive. Doc.

I agree with Orlok. I am strongly opposed to the sharing info, then killing Aman D3 plan. If the seer knew that there was a person with most of the info, they wouldn't care if they stayed alive. They'd convert C2, get the info, and watch him be killed C3. Share info if you want, but don't publicly announce that you're collecting info. It just paints a target on your head for the seer to convert you. Anyways, those are my thoughts. I'm voting on Doc12, because he's an interesting person.

This looks fun. Signing up as Edguardo the great, a nobleman with too many plans and not enough money

No kidding. I got answers of 16, 0, and 3. O.o They actually had some problems before where they did give the equation. I'm not sure why they didn't on that one.

Hmmm. I guess you could help me estimate some slopes. It's annoying because the problem doesn't give me the exact numbers. (Actually, don't do that. The university would probably get after me.) Or are you referring to my in-game win con? Nope, I've got no way to send out PMs.

It looks like majestic had to be lynched to meet his win con, in which case the person with the second-most votes was also lynched. And then 2 other people were attacked.

Semi-randomly. (I ruled out the inexperienced players and flash, because I always try to kill flash C1) I'm just giving an alternative to Jon and Majestic.

Nomming on chocolate while looking over the city. No wait, that was last cycle. Relick touched a cinderblock and activated his power. Half-brick. Sarcophagi. Ritual king stick. Flintlock rifle. He picked it up with care. It was time to enter the fray. Relick burst into the nearest building, leering at the civilians inside. "It's time for a taste of EPICNESS!" The civilians huddled back into a corner. Relick aimed at the most helpless-looking one, and pulled the trigger. Blast. Out of bullets. They really needed to arm their museum pieces better. "You haven't seen the last of me!" He leapt out of the window and ran off cackling. Soooo. Voting. C1 voting. Rebecca, King Cole, Lemonelon, and Majestic are all new. And Eternum sort of is, too. Up for the vote, I think we have Jon (1), PK (1), and Majestic (2). I'd rather not vote Majestic. So, Drake.

Relick had a good name. Admittedly, Relic had already been taken, but it didn't really matter. When you had your rival up against the wall, begging for mercy, you didn't need to spell it out for them. He picked up a piece of rubble from the ground, flipping it idly in his hand. Each flip, it changed form. First a stone with runes inscribed in it, then a wooden chalice, then an ancient bar of chocolate. He stopped there, munching on it as he watched the city burn. Someone should probably quench that lava. Forgot I was actually playing for a bit there. Anyways, college is starting for me this week, so forgive me if I don't post all that often. I'll try to get on every day, but things might be a bit busy.

I wonder what the vote tally looks like. Hmm. Doc. HH.

I asked Coyote to give me a hint as to my role, rather than the role itself. So I was told how many humans I could eat in one sitting. I've gotten more info and have figured it out since then, but at the time... yeah.

I mentioned this previously, but why would I choose Doc if I was trying to manipulate him? And encouraging discussion isn't a bad thing, although I had no idea that's what I was doing. By your logic, proactive votes are ones made with no evidence. Reactive votes are ones made in response to other things. I would much rather have a reactive vote, thank you very much. Doc's reasons for voting on me were that: He thought I was trying to manipulate someone, and chose him because I thought he would be a good person to manipulate, Or he was from the court and I was trying to appoint him Number 1 is incredibly unlikely. Why would I have chosen him instead of, say, Araris, who is a bit less active (Which means he'd rely on others a bit more,) but not inactive enough to be suspicious? (No offense, Araris) That leaves only number 2, which is practically an admission of being a court member. *Sigh* Let me summarize what's happened so far. I nominated Doc due to his attitude in previous games. Doc posted just after me, saying he would like the medium position. Some concerns that I might be in league with doc were brought up. Doc considered that he and I might be on the same team, and voted on me. That vote made no sense unless he was a member of the court, so I reversed my stance. Doc's vote on me literally makes no sense unless Doc thinks that he is easily manipulated and I am a master manipulator. (Hint: No and No.) @Flash, if you're going to vote on one of us, vote on Doc. The only reason I'm being voted on is because of "Gut reads" or because Doc might be from the court. In which case, it would be better to lynch doc, because lynching Doc implicates me. Lynching me gives no info about Doc.

Very well, friend Koru. I'll go through these from your point of view, to try and see what you see in me. I'll try to draw the conclusions from my reasons for voting to why I am from the court. YOU: "Well, what a coincidence. PK has voted for me before I said I wanted to be voted on. What a happy coincidence. He must be from the court." YOU, AGAIN: "Goodness. Despite knowing that I'm fairly active from previous games, he knows I'm active in this one. Only a court person would know that." "He offered to decline the role of protector. How strange. If I'm from the court, I could still elect one of my friends. He must be from the court as well." "If he had been from the court, he would have consulted with his teammates. The fact that he did not do that means that he must be from the court." "Voting early is something only someone from the court would do." "Only courtsmen know the ratio of wood to court. He must be court for knowing there are more woodsmen." What is your reasoning here, Koru? Everything I've done so far has helped YOU, and if you were a woodsman, you would KNOW not to comply with any requests I chose to make of you. I could understand others thinking you and I were in cahoots, but you KNOW there's no reason for me to help you as an eliminator. Why would I vote on YOU if I'm trying to influence the medium? If I'm trying to pick someone with power, I would pick someone who doesn't think much about the game, and could be easily influenced. Voting on you to try and influence you makes no sense! I think the last game I played with you was LG26, where you ruined the game for the whole village because you hadn't gotten your win con yet. That's not someone who can be manipulated. It's also someone who's a good planner, and someone who sticks in my mind. I wanted to vote on someone for medium, and given your actions in your last game I was in, I thought you wanted a position of power. Clearly not. Me refusing your offer of protector only makes me an eliminator if you are too. I offered it as a compromise, not a justification. Araris didn't seem to trust my intentions. The only way that would work out in my favor is if you're from the court too, Koru. Pointing out that eliminators can talk to one another does not make me a courtsman, Koru. If you look at practically every other game I've taken part in, I point out that elims have the info to misdirect the village at the beginning. This applies for the medium vote, too. Wouldn't I try to avoid that? It wouldn't work for the lynch, because I'd be more likely to hit an woodsman. But voting on someone random C1 as medium means that I'm more likely to hit a villager. It agrees with the opinion I've voiced in almost all my previous games. And voting on me's a double edged sword, Koru. If I'm evil, you're played as the mistaken villager, who is still a medium, by the way. But all of the reasons I'm being voted on is just in case I'm trying to put a courtsman in power, or am trying to control the villager I put in power. You know the second reason makes no sense, meaning the only reason you'd vote on me is if you were from the court. Koru. And just in case you think you can keep my vote, even after you tried to kill me for supporting you, Koru. Koru. Koru. TL;DR: I'm being voted on either because I'm trying to put a courtsman in power or am trying to control a villager I put in power. Doc is not the sort who can be controlled, meaning that the only reason he would vote on me is if he was an eliminator.

Sweet! A blackout game! Sign me up as [REDACTED], a person who specializes in collecting relics.