Young Bard
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Well done to the Discovery faction! It's a shame I wasn't able to get on, but if I had, I likely would have ended up voting for Rath anyway. Or... maybe I was the Spy all along, who knows? Maybe me being wildly off-base the whole game was part of me playing 5-dimensional chess with you all so you wouldn't figure me out. Good luck, anyway.
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It was late mainly because I was busy the rest of the day, and I could only get on towards the very end of the day (getting distracted didn't help). I also hoped that if the Elims had vote manipulation, that maybe a last minute vote would counter it. Thirdly, I'd have been a lot less confident about placing a vote last minute if they hadn't already been the leading candidate, so my vote didn't actively change who was going to get lynched (at least, not unless there was vote manip going around).
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I agree Burnt is hedging a little bit, but that seems fairly in line with their playstyle generally - I remember she was also particularly worried about conversion in - I've been trying to work out if she's playing it up this game, but I don't think so right now, though I might change my mind depending on the next cycle or two. I haven't been able to get a good read on Elan at all. I'm fine with a Devotary lynch, mainly due to the absence of anyone else being more suspicious to me. Is it just me, or is an Alv/Devotary team the most cliche Elim team at this point? They've been evil quite a lot together, though I'm not sure how often, exactly - I think at least 5.
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I'm going to vote for Venture - partly out of self-preservation, and partly of my analysis earlier - I can't see most players here killing Wilson off so early on their first game back (unless they were convinced Wilson was the Spy, and even then, they'd either be right and be able to win the game regardless or be wrong and have killed a returning player for nothing. Also, I didn't see anything that made me inclined to believe Wilson was the Spy, apart from their suspicion of Alv which turned out to be on point, and I'm more likely to put that down to them knowing each other for a long time and being able to read each other.)
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...Huh, I wouldn't have called either of those alignment flips - I was actually leaning Elim on Wilson and Village on Alv. I'm also surprised the Elims would kill Wilson - with Tess Cycle 1 and Wilson Cycle 2, they seem to be going after prominent players who have a large reputation - that, to me, usually makes me think the Elims might have more newer players, but Alv being an Elim is making me second-guess that theory. Also, the only player who could really be described as 'new' is Venture (and maybe Itiah), so that also makes the theory less likely. I'll do a reread of the thread tomorrow when I'm more awake.
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Not going to happen, sorry - I have nothing that makes me suspicious of El right now, and on a meta level, I believe they've said this is a narrow window they're able to play time-wise, and I don't want to cut that short. If it's still a choice between you and Alv, then you'd be my preferred choice for the lynch.
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Striker, it's just that something about Stink's language felt unusually... forced, to me. But that could be due to any number of factors - they could be an Elim, or just tired, or rushing, or it's all my imagination. So, Stink. Can we let Alv live longer than a cycle, please? They would have died Cycle 1 last game too if the game hadn't ended, and I want to see Asterion suffer - I mean, . So... That leaves Rath and Venture. I've tunnelled on Rath a few times (I think it's something to do with their playstyle - I've tried to be better about it) - but Rath isn't showing up on my radar at all this game so far. I'm tempted to say that's a difference from how I normally react to Rath, which might be a sign they're an Elim, but I'm not that mean, so that leaves Venture. Who... I'm not that suspicious of either. Great times. Devotary - I haven't heard much from you in either of the Cycle 1's we've had so far. I'd be curious on your thoughts.
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I read Striker's statement as more of a guessing game about what Kas and Hael would do than a statement about mathematical probability - as a probabilistic statement, it's definitely incorrect - as a statement about what Kas/Hael (Kale? ) might do, it may or may not be correct, but as Rae pointed out, it's more interesting and fair to base lynches on reads rather than metagaming even if it were possible to read Kale's mind, which I severely doubt. That said, I'm not especially suspicious of Striker for it, and it seems more like a villager grasping at straws to me. Hmmm... Stink, you have a distinctive style, which sometimes slips into a kind of self-parody, or trying to mimic your own style, if that makes sense - I think this is one of those incidences, and I'm trying to work out whether that's alignment indicative or not. But it's the best I've got right now.
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I should have stayed in the peach tree, Kavela thought, suddenly tense. She quickly took note of all the exits in case she needed to make a quick escape, then started inspecting the other guests more closely. Most of the guests had some form of weapon for self-defence, with varying degrees of skill for hiding it - anyone in the room could have managed this, Kavela realised. This all seemed... familiar, somehow. She shook it off - this was not the time to get distracted. One girl seemed to be sobbing, and was being comforted by - wait, no, that hadn't happened. Focus. The girl seemed to be talking to a rather handsome young man - the kind that usually seemed full of themselves and easy to dupe - and neither of them had noticed the body yet. Another man clutched his tea, as though haunted by past memories - I can relate - maybe he knows something. Kavela had a vision of the man standing, panicked, fleeing out the door - Kavela almost ignored the premonition, but... She looked at the door that the man had fled through, and slowly moved to bar it. If the man - or anyone else, for that matter - tried to flee, Kavela fully intended to ask them a couple questions first. ( @Alvron ) That done, she took a closer look over the assembled group. They seemed dishevelled, unprepared, and afraid. Even as she spoke, she could see people sneaking paranoid glances at one another, prepared to snap at a moments notice. If this was the grand resistance that was going to topple the Discovery Faction, then Kavela may have backed the wrong horse. Like you're doing any better, Kavela. Having memories of things that haven't happened? Kavela shook of the feeling and went back to hawkishly watching the room. Take two, here we go. I have to admit, I kind of love what I'm able to do with the RP because of it... Unfortunately, this was my only bit of RP, so my Groundhog Day escapades won't go on for long, but it was still great fun to write.
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Thanks to Kas and Hael for running this - I'm staying in, with the same character, albeit one with strange feelings of deja vu every now and again. For what it's worth, when I saw Striker's claim, I was going to do everything I could to mess with the Elims expectations, and throw enough doubt that they maybe wouldn't want to risk using their one assassination on him this cycle (in fact, I was trying to figure out if the GM's were trolls enough to have an Elim Survivor, in which case, Reform Spy would be a great cover story). It almost certainly wouldn't have worked, though, so calling the game was the right move. ...Wait, Tess was an Elim? That puts the end of the cycle in a different light... o.O I'd convinced myself Tess was village. Well played to the Eliminators.
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I'd already announced that in a lynch between Tess and Striker, I'd rather lynch you right now - I was holding to that prior statement, since the Venture lynch clearly hadn't been picked up.
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Apologies for the double-post, but it's a change of vote, so I figure it's worth making sure people see it. Tess, you had to vote for the one person I specifically said I didn't want to lynch, didn't you. I'm tempted to give you a village read simply for lack of self-preservation instincts, but I'm not going to for two reasons. First, I'm slightly paranoid and I can't put it past you to have done that deliberately to try and pocket me. Second is a more meta reason - if I change who I said I intended to vote for in the last 5 minutes of the cycle, it will be all anyone talks about for the next 2-3 cycles as everyone tries to debate if it's suspicious or not, and I don't think that discussion would be helpful to the village overall. So, Tess.
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I probably will (I'll be around for rollover), but the Americans are about to wake up, I think, so I think there's a chance that more people will log on at the end of the cycle to decide.
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What am I, chopped liver? (My apologies for not getting on sooner - I didn't realise the game had started until I flicked tabs idly and found that Kas had sent me the GM PM.) I don't think Tess's post is particularly suspicious, but I don't think it's especially villager-y, either. I think it's about the kind of thing I'd expect her to post regardless of alignment, tbh. (For the record, I agree that listing Spy-ish traits in thread is useful, mainly for the IKYK value of it, but also that it's unlikely to bring up anything that 3 collaborating Elims are unable to think of and analyse anyway, but could slip up the Spy who's working alone. I think the obvious tells have already been covered - the main thing I'd add is people who jump onto bandwagons unusually quickly, especially if those bandwagons later turn out to be of Elim players.) If whoever I end up voting for doesn't take off, though, then I'd rather vote for Tess over Striker right now, and probably will with only an hour left in the cycle. There's a few people who I don't think be lynched. Rath's post seems to be genuinely trying to figure out strategies - if they were an Elim it's the kind of thing that would be done in an Elim Doc, and it reads like a genuine attempt to me. I'm getting a slightly weird read off El's posts, and I'm not sure why. I'm not ready to lynch them yet, though. I'm going to vote for Venture. Highlight from their first post: It sounds like they want to be seen to be active and contributing, without saying much of note. It can be hard to find things to say Day 1 (especially early in the Day), but you can usually find things. And trying to plant themselves as a villager (by giving a message to the Eliminators) is always a fairly suspicious move. I should have stayed in the peach tree, Kavela thought, suddenly tense. She quickly took note of all the exits in case she needed to make a quick escape, then started inspecting the other guests more closely. Most of the guests had some form of weapon for self-defence, with varying degrees of skill for hiding it - anyone in the room could have managed this, Kavela realised. One girl seemed to be sobbing, and was being comforted by a man. Another turned deathly pale and fled the room. Overall, they seemed dishevelled, unprepared, and afraid. Even as she spoke, she could see people sneaking paranoid glances at one another, prepared to snap at a moments notice. If this was the grand resistance that was going to topple the Discovery Faction, then Kavela may have backed the wrong horse. (Side note: I'd completely forgotten that there was someone in the writeup called Kaleva by the time I decided I was going to play and was trying to think up a character. Oops. That's hilarious.)
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Does the Embedded Operative get anything for choosing to align with the Conspirators? "- impossible. His reign has been secure since the day he ascended, we've made sure of it." "Times are changing, Raishin, surely you must see that much, at least. If you're half as smart as you pretend to be, then your spies should be reporting as much back to you. We need to be prepared." "There are always troublemakers. None of them are any threat, though. They wouldn't dare, not after last time." "It's that blasted Security Bill. I told Gamman it was too much, too soon, that it could cause trouble, but he's always been far too headstrong." Up above the two arbiters, well hidden amid the foliage of the tree, a girl, Kavela, strained to hear the conversation below her. The branch creaked unappreciatively as she shifted her weight, and she froze - this would not be a good time for the branch to break or for the arbiters to notice her presence. Thankfully, the branch held, and the arbiters seemed to be too deep in their conversation to notice. Kavela settled back, and continued to listen. "We can double security around the palace, make sure all the food is tested before it reaches the emperor. That will be enough to prevent any attempts." There is a pause in the conversation. "I hope so", the other figure eventually replied. The two mean seemed to take the conversation to be at an end at that point, as they stood up and parted ways, heading in separate directions, both walking in the too-stiff way of someone trying to appear innocent. Kavela waited a few minutes to make sure they were gone, and leaped softly down from the branch onto the street, her feet barely making a sound as she touched down. Stalking Arbiters was a dangerous business, but it paid well, and if Gamman really was about to get the knife, Kavela wanted to make sure she was in his successor's good books. Kavela passed by a street vendor selling oranges, and habitually pickpocketed one when the merchants eyes weren't looking. She continued to walk until she rounded a corner, then quickly dashed off, to go and make her report.
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Meta's traditionally been God of Death - I added God of Creation to that as well since it worked in that precise moment - for without Meta, who brought forum Mafia to the Shard, there would be no Wilson, or Orlok, or Maill as we recognise them. But it didn't really stick, and I wasn't all that consistent with it in the RP I did that game, so I just muddied the waters, which I regret - if there's ever a game like that again, I'll make sure to be much more consistent about whatever I choose to do, but in the meantime... God of Death is a fitting title for Meta.
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Well, I was operating under the assumption that when you were lying you had a purpose behind it, as opposed to just lying for the sake of it when it wouldn't matter anyway. I won't make that mistake again. -
Well done to @DrakeMarshmallow! When you announced your intentions at the beginning of the game, I was thinking "Everyone's going to be wise to that now, no-one will trust him". Ha. Well played. And @Butt Ad Venture, was this your first time as an Elim? You did a really good job, considering that your teammates were dropping like flies around you - you weren't even on my radar. EDIT: Also, everyone should read the Jail Doc the whole way through. It's not long, and Alv enjoyed himself.
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Sorry Elandera. You had really poor luck with finding Mistings to kill for conversions this game. You got me. I've been undone at the final hour - and I'd have gotten away with it too if it weren't for that meddling Rathmaskal.
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That's fair, Drake. I was thinking after Fura's Ledger was redirected that I'd probably have been suspicious of me, too. About the Kidpen lynch, I don't think it's as simple as saying "The Eliminators could have just bribed the vote away from Kidpen" - we saw that happen with Alv being saved, and that resulted in just about everybody wanting to lynch Alv the next cycle. I think they must have realised that, and decided to cut their losses by framing me. I don't know why they moved the Ledger onto Kidpen of all people - my suspicion is that if they moved it onto a player that didn't die that cycle, that would just continue to extend the chain indefinitely which would be worse in the long run. This is where I hope those with knives can start dealing with inactives, but I think there has to be enough posts done at this point to get readings of the alignments of people based on their opinions on the Constables Cycle 1/2, their views and interactions with Alv, Kidpen and Rae - there's more out there than just lynching inactives. And besides, if I were an Elim, then you'd just have to start doing that next cycle anyway.
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Right. It's worth mentioning that Burnt was strangely quiet about their role (or, as it turns out, their lack of one) - they made it clear this cycle that they had no intention of roleclaiming to anyone. I have a suspicion that the Inquisitor might have been one of Burnt's PM buddies, noticed that, and guessed that Burnt was a powerful Misting, maybe even the Mistborn, hence the kill attempts on her two different nights. Which... doesn't narrow down the playing field all that much. But I think that from Fifth's list (and including Fifth themself), that leaves Hael, Doc and Fifth who I know had PM's with Burnt, and Elandera and Stink who may or may not have had active PM's with Burnt, I don't know. Doc I trust - while they've said/done some suspicious stuff, their behaviour just doesn't match up this game with how I'd expect an Inquisitor Doc to make in the same situation. Fifth, I also trust, to a lesser degree mostly because of paranoia. Stink is the mystery of the bunch, and his playstyle makes him extremely hard to read, but when he's around he seems to be generating his own special Stink-flavoured brand of fun, which I don't think he'd need or bother to do so much if he were the Inquisitor, so I doubt it's them as well. Which leaves Hael and Elandera. Which, for me, is a really tough choice. Hael, I personally distrust more, mainly due to process of Elimination, but most of the people I talk to, including Burnt, seemed to think they've been acting fairly villager-y. Elan, on the other hand, has been going against the grain quite a bit in terms of reads and of opinions in thread, and I think the Inquisitor probably wouldn't do that? But then, I wouldn't put it past Elandera for that to be a deliberate tactic to seem like a villager for that very reason, given that they didn't have to worry about incriminating their teammates or any other team dynamics. Overall, I think I trust Elandera slightly less, but that's a placeholder vote that I might change when I have more time to do analysis tomorrow (I felt like I should make some effort to do analysis in both games tonight).
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When? And did you disclose this to the thread before and I just missed it?
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That was a brain fart - you just said you were manipulated onto Drake, and I just parsed that to mean action and not vote for some reason. I'm too tired for this... And daggers that are used to kill someone get passed to a player that voted on the stabbed person, right? Or if there are no votes on that person, it gets passed randomly, IIRC? So I thought that they wouldn't end up on the black market either way. Either way, though, I want to know know why Snip no longer has that Dagger.
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I... huh. I did not expect that. So, the ledger is Elandera's, they claimed that last cycle. And the two ledgers were there last cycle. So Join the Alleyverse was either Devotary's or Rae's. If Rae had it/it was in Eliminator hands (I'm assuming Rae's an Elim here since the flip chance was extremely small) - then I struggle to believe it wouldn't have been used by now, since the Alleyverse dagger has been out of commission for several cycles. (In fact, last I heard I thought it was still in @Snipexe's hands - did you use the Dagger or did you pass it on, and when, Snip?) Devotary holding/hoarding the dagger makes more sense - they're a villager, and a kill without an alignment reveal isn't especially useful. Finally, Drake's vote was manipulated onto Rae and someone manipulated Fura's action onto Drake? I don't think that's a coincidence, though I'm not sure how they're related exactly. What was your action, Fura?
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Apologies for the double post, but there's a change of vote, so I want to make sure it gets seen. I saw Devotary's post after I posted, and I'm inclined to agree with her logic. Hemalurgic Headshot, Elandera. If Devotary is evil, I will be really annoyed with myself.
